Open 34 - Dethy (Game Over) - before 474

Thok · Post Post #8 (isolation #0) » Thu Jul 12, 2007 11:01 am

I think a good idea would be to try to get everybody to agree on a particular time, and get everybody to try to simulpost there results at once.

If that seems impractical, somebody should break out the dice roll function and use that to pick an order. But I don't think a dice roll should be done until everybody posts.

Thok · Post Post #18 (isolation #1) » Thu Jul 12, 2007 11:28 am

Sounds good to me.

Thok · Post Post #19 (isolation #2) » Thu Jul 12, 2007 11:30 am

Er Piggy's sounds good to me, as long as JDodge appears.

Thok · Post Post #24 (isolation #3) » Thu Jul 12, 2007 11:36 am

We probably should wait for him. Sigh.

Thok · Post Post #31 (isolation #4) » Thu Jul 12, 2007 11:38 am

Invetigated: Miss Piggy
Result: Innocent

Thok · Post Post #37 (isolation #5) » Thu Jul 12, 2007 11:44 am

Feh, remember that if I'm town, SSF/Patrick could be any combination of paranoid/insane/scum.

Thok · Post Post #42 (isolation #6) » Thu Jul 12, 2007 11:54 am

Generally sanity is not revealed (that makes the game harder for scum); the goal is to try to deduce sanities from results. (Generally game play involves lots of no-lynching).

It's better to work with each of the 5 cases where X is scum (for varying values of X), and work out sanities in each of those cases. We can't tell SSF and Patrick apart yet. Nobody is cleared yet (I think), although JDodge's result could change that.

Thok · Post Post #46 (isolation #7) » Thu Jul 12, 2007 12:11 pm

Fun Fact to test your skills: Both me and Piggy are provably not insane. (Which is more interesting then the fairly trivial fact that neither of us is paranoid.)

Thok · Post Post #49 (isolation #8) » Thu Jul 12, 2007 12:27 pm

SSF-you're misreading Provably (as in able to be proven) as probably.

Thok · Post Post #54 (isolation #9) » Thu Jul 12, 2007 12:45 pm

OK. This is an easy analysis. It's impossible for three cops to get guilty on me, no matter what my alignment, so scum is one of Patrick, JDodge, SSF. Piggy and I are sane/naive, the two of Patrick/JDodge/SSF who aren't scum are insane/paranoid.

All investigations tonight should be on Patrick/JDodge/SSF.

Thok · Post Post #56 (isolation #10) » Thu Jul 12, 2007 12:53 pm

Unclear, we need to break the symmetry of SSF/Patrick (and to a lesser extent JDodge).

Thok · Post Post #60 (isolation #11) » Thu Jul 12, 2007 1:11 pm

I think we probably want to no lynch today (but not yet).

One suggestion I'll make is that we should pick one of Patrick/SSF/JDodge and require the other two people to investigate that one person. (Since we want to break symmetry, I feel that's a better plan then doing randomness or having the three investigate in a circle).

Thok · Post Post #62 (isolation #12) » Thu Jul 12, 2007 3:19 pm

Yeah, I've basically convinced myself that there isn't a forced win from what we have. I've also decided the best set of investigations for tonight (in terms of maximizing our chance of winning) is that we have everyobdy investigate Patrick, except that Patrick investigates his choice of JDodge/SSF.

(I don't really want to explain much about my thought processes on how this works, except to note that I'm willing to discuss which of SSF/Patrick should be the target of mass investigations; my reasoning for suggesting Patrick over SSF is a slight amount of gut.)

Thok · Post Post #67 (isolation #13) » Fri Jul 13, 2007 9:43 am

JDodge wrote:No lynch = bad.

We have 3 candidates for scum; we have a much better chance if we eliminate one today.

Lynching one of the candidates today makes it much easier for scum to fake investigation results tomorrow. Moreover, we probably will be able to use the investigation results tomorrow to clear at least one of the three potential scum (and that's assuming scum doesn't kill off one of the three candidates).

Thok · Post Post #69 (isolation #14) » Fri Jul 13, 2007 9:55 am

Thok · Post Post #70 (isolation #15) » Fri Jul 13, 2007 9:59 am

We should wait for Patrick to post before going to no lynch.

Thok · Post Post #73 (isolation #16) » Fri Jul 13, 2007 11:51 am

Patrick-keep your investigation to yourself. If you are insane, I'd prefer that you'd investigate scum (but obviously, we dont know who scum is), otherwise it doesn't matter.

Thok · Post Post #74 (isolation #17) » Fri Jul 13, 2007 11:52 am

Patrick wrote:Yeah, it was rushed. I wasn't sure whether we were doing it then or waiting until :45 or possibly for JDodge. When I saw one guy post a result, I quickly posted mine too.

I think all three of me, Miss Piggy, and you did this.

Thok · Post Post #76 (isolation #18) » Fri Jul 13, 2007 12:07 pm

I don't.

Thok · Post Post #195 (isolation #19) » Mon Jul 23, 2007 1:26 pm

Heh, good job.

Thok · Post Post #197 (isolation #20) » Mon Jul 23, 2007 1:41 pm

Patrick wrote:Well that's a relief. I thought the late result on day 1 was a slight point in his favour, I thought as scum he could come up with a result less helpful to the town. Last night's kill gave me mixed feelings though, I could have seen an argument either way.

Fair enough (JDodgescum probably would have given Thok innocent as a result, I think that was the least helpful of all results. I do think Thok guilty was the second worse result though; it cleared two people, but gave essentially no info about sanities.)

Last night's kill was actually an argument in favor of SSFscum; JDodgescum has less incentive to kill Piggy, as he knows she's naive (and that you could be scum).

That said, during day 1 I found it likely JDodge was scum, given his reaction to various things.

Fun fact: if I investigate anybody other than Miss Piggy Night 1 (and all other results remain the same), then town has a forced win day 1.

You guys sure found me scummy night 1