Open 34 - Dethy (Game Over) - before 474

[somestrangeflea]

Oh. I thought you had simply mistyped probably!

Sorry!

But yeah, that makes sense nao!

[JDodge]

Thok - Guilty

[JDodge]

I believe that means that one of myself, Patrick and SSF must be lying, as it is logistically impossible (I think) to get three guilties on one person.

[Patrick]

Does that mean Thok is cleared? It's late here but I think that means Thok is cleared.

[Thok]

OK. This is an easy analysis. It's impossible for three cops to get guilty on me, no matter what my alignment, so scum is one of Patrick, JDodge, SSF. Piggy and I are sane/naive, the two of Patrick/JDodge/SSF who aren't scum are insane/paranoid.

All investigations tonight should be on Patrick/JDodge/SSF.

[Patrick]

Ah yes Ms Piggy is cleared as well. Is there some way to force a win from this?

[Thok]

Unclear, we need to break the symmetry of SSF/Patrick (and to a lesser extent JDodge).

[somestrangeflea]

We effectively have 2 "role pools":

Pool 1

Names:

Thok, Piggy

Roles:

Sane, Naive

Pool 2

Names:

SSF, Patrick, JDodge

Roles:

Insane, Paranoid, Scum

[Ms Piggy]

Interesting. I'll ponder upon this result for a bit I guess.

[somestrangeflea]

I'm going to sleep now. =(

I shall return in around 10 hours...

[Thok]

I think we probably want to no lynch today (but not yet).

One suggestion I'll make is that we should pick one of Patrick/SSF/JDodge and require the other two people to investigate that one person. (Since we want to break symmetry, I feel that's a better plan then doing randomness or having the three investigate in a circle).

[Patrick]

Meh. I haven't yet found a way to force a win from this. I'll keep trying though. SSF is the most likely scum because Ms Piggy has an innocent on JDodge, and there's a 50% chance Ms Piggy is a sane cop, but there's nothing to seperate me from SSF yet.

[Thok]

Yeah, I've basically convinced myself that there isn't a forced win from what we have. I've also decided the best set of investigations for tonight (in terms of maximizing our chance of winning) is that we have everyobdy investigate Patrick, except that Patrick investigates his choice of JDodge/SSF.

(I don't really want to explain much about my thought processes on how this works, except to note that I'm willing to discuss which of SSF/Patrick should be the target of mass investigations; my reasoning for suggesting Patrick over SSF is a slight amount of gut.)

[bird1111]

Vote Count

Not Voting: 5 (Thok, Ms Piggy, Patrick, JDodge, somestrangeflea)

With 5 alive it is 3 to lynch.

[Ms Piggy]

Yeah, I've basically convinced myself that there isn't a forced win from what we have. I've also decided the best set of investigations for tonight (in terms of maximizing our chance of winning) is that we have everyobdy investigate Patrick, except that Patrick investigates his choice of JDodge/SSF.

(I don't really want to explain much about my thought processes on how this works, except to note that I'm willing to discuss which of SSF/Patrick should be the target of mass investigations; my reasoning for suggesting Patrick over SSF is a slight amount of gut.)

I have a gut feeling it's SSF, on the contrary, but I say let's go with your plan. I see how you might feel it's Patrick, especially his quick x:38 result giving that just said Thok Guilty. It seemed rushed a bit as if he had to think quick of a result, though I think it's just a feeling that doesn't mean anything.

Anyways, I can't think of any way to force a win, and we don't have much else to discuss, so let's no lynch and go with it.

Vote: No Lynch

if there are any objections, say so.

[somestrangeflea]

I don't really think there's anywhere else today can go...

Vote: No Lynch

[JDodge]

No lynch = bad.

We have 3 candidates for scum; we have a much better chance if we eliminate one today.

[Thok]

No lynch = bad.

We have 3 candidates for scum; we have a much better chance if we eliminate one today.

Lynching one of the candidates today makes it much easier for scum to fake investigation results tomorrow. Moreover, we probably will be able to use the investigation results tomorrow to clear at least one of the three potential scum (and that's assuming scum doesn't kill off one of the three candidates).

[JDodge]

Okay then.

So the plan was for me and SSF to investigate Patrick, have Patrick investigate one of us, right?

[Thok]

Yes

[Thok]

We should wait for Patrick to post before going to no lynch.

[Patrick]

I see how you might feel it's Patrick, especially his quick x:38 result giving that just said Thok Guilty. It seemed rushed a bit as if he had to think quick of a result, though I think it's just a feeling that doesn't mean anything.

Yeah, it was rushed. I wasn't sure whether we were doing it then or waiting until :45 or possibly for JDodge. When I saw one guy post a result, I quickly posted mine too.

I don't mind the plan. Everyone investigating me right? And I check Dodge or SSF. Should I say who or keep it to myself?

[Ms Piggy]

If you aren't scum, then don't say who you are going to investigate, and report the results tomorrow I guess?

[Thok]

Patrick-keep your investigation to yourself. If you are insane, I'd prefer that you'd investigate scum (but obviously, we dont know who scum is), otherwise it doesn't matter.

[Thok]

Yeah, it was rushed. I wasn't sure whether we were doing it then or waiting until :45 or possibly for JDodge. When I saw one guy post a result, I quickly posted mine too.

I think all three of me, Miss Piggy, and you did this.