Open 585: Jungle Republic (ended)

[Aristophanes]

I'm not sure if that's Freddy Mercury.
Who is that?

Definitely Freddie Mercury!

[pisskop]

What makes Farside Mafia? Do you have posts for that?

Also, Westwolf. I don't see Westwolf too well.

[Lyserg-Zeroz]

(That resignation thou =P)

@Metal: Answer Cheet's question.

@farside: Can you tell me if you are ignoring me when I address you on purpose? It'd make me less frustrated to know if that's a thing that's happening on purpose or not ;-; (Hmm... this reads kinda passive aggressive: it's not, don't know how else to ask this).

Can whoever has hammerpower hold on for a while for question-answering to happen? (I also want Prawn to actually say stuff this day #hopeful;-;)

[Lyserg-Zeroz]

@Ari: Are there any coo' reasons (and more specific than the genuine scumhunting point) as to why PK turned into "if anything Wolfy" now, when considering the PK+Metal suspicions from before? (also, the crazy theory D=, you are gonna have to tell me about that after the game ends if that's still not a thing worth talking about)

[pisskop]

Can you look over Lal and give me you top two candidate for wolf from her? I know we can flush out scum based on associations, but the wolf is competent and following a pattern . . .

[Aristophanes]

Westwolf is kind of a vestige of my past reads on him. I don't feel comfortable to make a town argument for him and it seems the likeliest alternative case.

Farside, as I said, just seems to ask things and then sit back. Doesn't do anything analysis-wise. When she does, I read it as very fence-sitty or not directly game related.
It might be all the one-off posts and a little Omgus feeling, but I think it could be an actual tell.
She had a theory of Young/Jordan as Werewolf, but never really pushed it and other than that barely had any mention of them. May have been distancing, while still having the plausibility to say "I knew he was some sort of scum at least" if questioned. I feel like I'm reaching now. Sorry.

Hahaha Oh Lyserg!
Crazy theory may not be as crazy, just I was making too many connections in my head at once. It may or may not pan out in time, but I'll see from the sidelines I guess. I'll tell you afterward if you're still interested XD

I just lost a lot of the malice I was feeling from Acryon's posts. When you questioned if we were just going at it because of gameplay differences I decided to give that a thought. I held my read on PK for a bit but it just doesn't seem as strong now, so I think that may have been the issue.
I wish it were more revolutionary. I think I had a better reason yesterday, but like I say, I've just plain forgotten lol

PK is that last post at me or Lyserg?

[prawneater]

First things first, DO NOT HAMMER ARISTOPHANES. IT IS A BAD WAGON.

[pisskop]

Both, if you don't mind.

I'm looking over her myself. If we could flush the wolf out now we could POE the Scums.

unvote

Actually I agree.^^

[prawneater]

You guys are going to have to help me out a bit.

As far as I can gather, you guys are assuming that Aristophanes is a scumpair with YYR/ ~Jordan`

I think a lot of you are basing this on YYR defending Aristophanes on D1.

Mafia pairs do not buddy so overtly. If this is the entirety of your reasoning for pairing Aristophanes with YYR, your vote is bad and possibly scummy.

Also, the fact that a wagon formed so quickly makes me think there's definitely a scum or two on it.

@Aristophanes Wagon Voters

Is there a 3rd scum you connect with Aristophanes and YYR/ ~Jordan`?

Also, are you guys referring to YYR as Young?

[Aristophanes]

Also, are you guys referring to YYR as Young?

Also, hi. Reading at the moment. For reference, people call me Young for those that don't know me.

[pisskop]

Fuck all that noise.

I think Ginko is the Wolfie. He coaches Lal and consistently uses her wagon as a basis for his scumhunting. I'm close to shutting down for the night, but Look over his ISO and focus specifically on the searchword "lal".

vote: Cheetory

Compare his 180 from post 407 to 414 specifically. Cheetory wasn 't bussing her, but taking the middle ground right up until critical mass.

Spoiler: 407

I'm not really sure I understand your point.
I don't think you intentionally flipped your read on Vyse or ignored West?
The former point reads as scum poorly keeping track of their reads and the latter just reads as weird. Do you want me to insert speculation into why I think the latter could be coming from scumPOV? Because I have thoughts, they're just really paranoid and just stopping at weird makes me sound less like I'm crazy than when I elaborate on my entire thoughts on every action people have q.q

No, which is why I noted it as such that some would say it's scummy, but even then it still just isn't the tipping point; I don't think anyone things it's scummy enough to be that. To me, it felt more like she saw farside's post saying she felt Lal was scummy, and this caused Lal to quickly move forward with the Ari wagon rather than screw around with another direction. Which would also explain the contradiction in her play here vs what she chastised Lyserg for.

I was reading back and thought for a second that I'd found something super scummy in this interaction involving timestamps but I feel like I just got caught up in nothing.

I voted for Ari in vote 171 and didn’t address farside’s points until 172. Those were two separate posts because I was on my phone, catching up on a lot and posting as I read, not easy to do multiquotes and such that way. Chronologically my vote for Ari came before I even read farside's post.

^Does the following explanation not seem plausible to you? She does respond to farside in a second post. [initially had thought that the timing between 171 and 172 was too close for her to have not read farside's post and then make a response, but it feels super subjective after thinking about it so meh]

-Cheet

Spoiler: 409

Of course it seems plausible or I don't think she wouldn't have said it, but I don't believe that it's true.

Okay.. so is there a better point I should be following on the Lalendra wagon? Or can you give me something that should convince me that it's not true?

I mean this is sort of what I'm asking. Do you really think it's more likely the former than the latter?

I was saying that I believe the flipflop on the read seems like a scum-mistake moreso than a town-mistake and that the lack of mention of West was moreso weird than blatantly scummy and I don't really understand.
Trying to piece together you and West as a scumteam didn't really make much sense to me because I didn't think West would just outright dismiss my case on you if you're scummates and the other thought of you and Vyse being scum also didn't really make much sense given how you guys are interacting.
For the flipflop it just makes more sense to me that someone who's scum and has a few real scumreads/a few exaggerated scumreads would be more likely to forget who their lesser scumreads are because they're forced.

Spoiler: 414

I think my scenario is more likely. It's weird to me that you would just take it at face value.

I'm not taking it at face value. Like, it's more likely to be scum-motivated than town-motivated, I'll give you that, but I'm just not seeing the hardcore lynchlust people are having for Lalendra, because the case on her reads as a bunch of little points adding up to an okay case.

I think town make mistakes and confuse things far more often than scum. I thought that was a pretty accepted though, which is why hunting for scum-slips is so bad.

It's less that it's a mistake and more that it's the second time you've done something that strikes me as forcing a scumread on someone. I would have been much more inclined to believe your read on Vyse had just changed from Point A to Point B, but it strikes me as super off that you just say that you more or less just forgot that he was leaning scum. Like, it just reads to me like you don't want people to think that the read itself was fake, but that you were earnestly reading Vyse's interactions as being town. Given that acryon wagon is becoming less likely of a thing I'll make it homework to read game you linked.

P-Edit:
Oh good. Acryon wagon is gone q.q.

@farside

, I did in #150 but it was pretty bare bones. I'm reading West as scummy.
Lalendra is probably ranking next highest on my scumdar, it's just quite a bit of a gap between West/Acryon and her :/
Have some other weak suspicions but they're mostly just based on paranoia over inactivity.
I'd personally rather not compromise on lynches in a setup like this.

Can I ask the rest of you to look? Even the scumies benefit from looking for the wolf, because, secret, I think the werewolf is specifically looking for the Seer via lurkers. that include a couple of likely scums.

[pisskop]

Fuck all that noise.

I think Ginko is the Wolfie. He coaches Lal and consistently uses her wagon as a basis for his scumhunting. I'm close to shutting down for the night, but Look over his ISO and focus specifically on the searchword "lal".

vote: Cheetory

Compare his 180 from post 407 to 414 specifically. Cheetory wasn 't bussing her, but taking the middle ground right up until critical mass.

Spoiler: 407

I'm not really sure I understand your point.
I don't think you intentionally flipped your read on Vyse or ignored West?
The former point reads as scum poorly keeping track of their reads and the latter just reads as weird. Do you want me to insert speculation into why I think the latter could be coming from scumPOV? Because I have thoughts, they're just really paranoid and just stopping at weird makes me sound less like I'm crazy than when I elaborate on my entire thoughts on every action people have q.q

No, which is why I noted it as such that some would say it's scummy, but even then it still just isn't the tipping point; I don't think anyone things it's scummy enough to be that. To me, it felt more like she saw farside's post saying she felt Lal was scummy, and this caused Lal to quickly move forward with the Ari wagon rather than screw around with another direction. Which would also explain the contradiction in her play here vs what she chastised Lyserg for.

I was reading back and thought for a second that I'd found something super scummy in this interaction involving timestamps but I feel like I just got caught up in nothing.

I voted for Ari in vote 171 and didn’t address farside’s points until 172. Those were two separate posts because I was on my phone, catching up on a lot and posting as I read, not easy to do multiquotes and such that way. Chronologically my vote for Ari came before I even read farside's post.

^Does the following explanation not seem plausible to you? She does respond to farside in a second post. [initially had thought that the timing between 171 and 172 was too close for her to have not read farside's post and then make a response, but it feels super subjective after thinking about it so meh]

-Cheet

Spoiler: 409

Of course it seems plausible or I don't think she wouldn't have said it, but I don't believe that it's true.

Okay.. so is there a better point I should be following on the Lalendra wagon? Or can you give me something that should convince me that it's not true?

I mean this is sort of what I'm asking. Do you really think it's more likely the former than the latter?

I was saying that I believe the flipflop on the read seems like a scum-mistake moreso than a town-mistake and that the lack of mention of West was moreso weird than blatantly scummy and I don't really understand.
Trying to piece together you and West as a scumteam didn't really make much sense to me because I didn't think West would just outright dismiss my case on you if you're scummates and the other thought of you and Vyse being scum also didn't really make much sense given how you guys are interacting.
For the flipflop it just makes more sense to me that someone who's scum and has a few real scumreads/a few exaggerated scumreads would be more likely to forget who their lesser scumreads are because they're forced.

Spoiler: 414

I think my scenario is more likely. It's weird to me that you would just take it at face value.

I'm not taking it at face value. Like, it's more likely to be scum-motivated than town-motivated, I'll give you that, but I'm just not seeing the hardcore lynchlust people are having for Lalendra, because the case on her reads as a bunch of little points adding up to an okay case.

I think town make mistakes and confuse things far more often than scum. I thought that was a pretty accepted though, which is why hunting for scum-slips is so bad.

It's less that it's a mistake and more that it's the second time you've done something that strikes me as forcing a scumread on someone. I would have been much more inclined to believe your read on Vyse had just changed from Point A to Point B, but it strikes me as super off that you just say that you more or less just forgot that he was leaning scum. Like, it just reads to me like you don't want people to think that the read itself was fake, but that you were earnestly reading Vyse's interactions as being town. Given that acryon wagon is becoming less likely of a thing I'll make it homework to read game you linked.

P-Edit:
Oh good. Acryon wagon is gone q.q.

@farside

, I did in #150 but it was pretty bare bones. I'm reading West as scummy.
Lalendra is probably ranking next highest on my scumdar, it's just quite a bit of a gap between West/Acryon and her :/
Have some other weak suspicions but they're mostly just based on paranoia over inactivity.
I'd personally rather not compromise on lynches in a setup like this.

Can I ask the rest of you to look? Even the scumies benefit from looking for the wolf, because, secret, I think the werewolf is specifically looking for the Seer via lurkers. that include a couple of likely scums.

[Aristophanes]

I didn't really get much from a reading of Lal tbh. I'll reread this post and do an Iso on Cheet/Ginko tomorrow as I'm just not all here atm.
Sorry guys!

[Metalcyanide]

Cheet (Ginko) - Has been really wishy washy this game. Not sure if due to IRL stuff, the result of being hydra first half of the game or trying to stay under the radar.

Can you explain what you mean by this? >.>
I'm not really sure if I understand how I've been wishy washy.

Sorry missed this, thanks Lyserg for pointing out a question was asked.

Anyways, Cheet after going back to reread you you have had a lot of null reads, been on & off the Ari wagon more than anyone (by this I mean the number of times you voted/unvoted for him) and you've been okay with a few different lynch options but haven't realled pushed them (aside Ari).

Question to everyone but Cheet. Does anyone agree with that or am I off base?

[Lyserg-Zeroz]

Screw you Ari, are you scum just mocking me with your answers T-T? (my internet connection is being all crappy right now <.<)

@Prawn: Not counting my opening post, Ari started genuinely bothering me during D2, specially late D2. I agree with Cheet in that some of his votes seem opportunistic in a self preservation kind of manner. Probably the thing that pinged me the most is that his initial read on my reaction to his D1 naked Metal vote makes no sense (the corrected one does, but does not account for the thing that bothered me more there, in that he said he liked where my questioning went, but I didn't throw any meaningful questioning his way when reacting to the naked Metal vote, then his read on that feels just made up really and makes me paranoid about him possibly buddying up to me [this also because of his jump at farside questioning me]).

  Don't really have any super strong 3rd scum suspect if Ari is scum, you are a nice one but the D1 vote on him and overboard defense throws doubt into that thought, also considering Vyse a possibility for his akward vote out of the Ari wagon and into Ginko. I also have a nebulous thought regarding Cheet maybe bussing him late D2 when other wagons were more likely to happen and then a combo of him being locked into his townMetal read and the bus + the flip making him pressured to vote him again now crosses my mind, but depending on Ari's flip I'm gonna ISO Cheet more carefully about that later. Young's defense of Ari wasn't overboard enough to throw me into the "too obvious for scum" side (using farside's bolded quotes: the first one is not really that strong of a defense, the second one is more using him as a pivot to go for other people), also because Ari's meta really facilitates seeing stuff against him as just part of his regular play and the use of the lynchbait argument, which I could see scum familiar with Ari (like Young) taking advantage of.

@PK: I've been going back and forth with wolf suspicion mostly between the different nonLal voters. Think the existence of seer sorta lazied me up on that front; Vyse was the last place my mind settled on that front. Cheet vote seems coo' thou. Gonna ISO Cheet and Lal about that now, hmm... where does he coach Lal? (also, eh, Jordan kill didn't strike me as seerhunting kill, but I'd rather not talk more about that point because implicit PRhunting would prolly come out of such a convo and eff that).

@Metal: The "on and off Ari" point feels kinda exaggerated, wasn't it just the one RVS-ish vote the one he unvoted? I'm feeling his vote on Ari now as a combo of an extension of his vote on D2 and the info provided by the flip. The null reads point is meh if only because I can empathize with that, are you reading that as scummy in general or just from Cheet and how do your own reasons for having lots of nulls D1 and only focusing on Ari and West most of the rest of the game factor into this point when thinking about Cheet's reasons for having nulls? Need to look over Cheet's ISO more carefully to see how I feel about the "pushing" point.

[pisskop]

Lyserg. Im so confident in it Id make a sigbet. Cheetor is wolfe. Jordon was lurking, orci was lurking. Vyse is maybemafia. I liked him for wolfie but dont think he is scum.

[pisskop]

I had a moment. I had one in Italian Ice too.
It just clicked.

[pisskop]

Lyserg, I'm completing my compilation of their ISOs now.

@Metal,
Ginko wrote:
What's your general perception of Ari's towngame?
If you ignore me again I will cut you.

I guess this didn't further your wincon so you let it go, hunh?

[farside22]

I'm going to start first with Lyse: I have no idea what question you asked. I sometimes miss things when I'm reading through because I get interuptions during my day.

Next in regards to ari's comments towards me. My thought about the wolf in general is there is a seer out there. I would rather look for the mafia and have the seer find the wolf. Whoever the person is can guide players or hide out till they find the last wolf.
So I look for the mafia and make my views on who I think the wolf is.

If this is scummy let me know why

[pisskop]

@ Lyserg

Coaching is the wrong word. He has guided her with questions and soft questions to others.

Let me run down them into one ISO of Ginko, Lal, and Cheetor

Spoiler: Rundown

163, Lal townreads Ginko, stating

Ginko – I’m with Gliffie, Hydras suck. Playing very aggressively, and I'm getting a townread from interactions so far. Solid reasoning and nothing sounds like circular logic or half-assed excuses.

164 is Lal jumping onto the work of Ginko in 81 - 99, where he wifomed Orci into a scumread. True story, go look.

269 is the brgining of the soft defending Lal, and 292 is what I meant by 'coaching'. He's guiding her with questions while soft-defending her.

<snip>

@Lyserg

, I'm kind of confused as to how you're arriving at a comfortable place with your vote on Lalendra when it seems to me like you're pretty unsure of your individual points about her in #286. Is it the culmination of a bunch of small things that's just making you feel like she's probably scum?
<snip>
Need to see a concise Lalendra case because my head got really fuzzy trying to parse most of what was going on there besides like one of farside's points on her somewhat resonating with me. Might summarize all the votes when I have some more time today and then see what I think about it.

-Cheetory6

Here in 292 is more soft-defending, as well as more sweet nothings into Lal's ear. He isn't like that with any other player.

ii) I'm pretty shrug with most of his play up until his 22nd post at which point he starts to focus really hard on Lalendra. This feels kinda inconsistent with his play prior in this game. He becomes very focused on asking Lalendra questions and making points as to why she's scummy, whereas he was kind of more disinterested in pushing for Aristophanes or asking him questions. I feel like there's a very distinct difference in playstyle being taken here and it doesn't even make much sense from a perspective of "I think that Aristophanes is less scummy than Lalendra", because his reasoning when he unvotes is that he wants to avoid a quickhammer.
Kind of gives me the impression that Ari or Lalendra might be a scummate of his [more likely Lalendra just from some other interactions] or that he might have been forcing his scumread on Aristophanes and felt uncomfortable pushing it.

Scumhunting from the Lal-wagon, as stated. More soft defending.

Will make an active effort to try and read the Lalendra wagon tomorrow.
-Cheetory6

What? What has he been doing the last hundred posts but getting more and more invested into Lal's wagon?

324 chainsaw into Acryon in defense of Lal. Again, nothing overt, but wholly cows look at him go!

@LALENDRA WAGON ANALYSIS:
i) Acryon's reasoning in his votepost:
-when she gives her read on acryon it only focuses on the stuff that he said during RVS
-that her read on Aristophanes escalated from her being slightly wary of him to something worth voting for just from him making a naked vote
-her putting Ari close to lynching range when she'd made a big deal out of Lyserg doing the same thing to a lesser degree before
-changing from Ari to Lalendra because he doesn't want a quickhammer

ii) Aristophanes's reasoning in his votepost:
-agrees with the escalating read on him based on the naked vote as being scummy
-that it feels opportunistic that Lalendra sheeped West's reasoning for voting him later
-that Lal was possibly third party hunting
-that West/Metal/Lal scumteam is likely

iii) orcinus's reasoning just before his votepost:
-that she's fencesitty

iv) farside's reasoning [in a non-vote post]:
-stating concern for mislynch
-using vague words when discussing a read on Aristophanes and then voting him for a naked vote
-her being against meta discussion
-flipping her read on farside based on her suspecting her

v) Lyserg's reasoning in his votepost:
[I could be totally wrong on some of these so lemme know if I'm wrong]
-a lack of questioning of things in this game vs her town game
-some of her questioning seems like posturing to try and either dismantle suspicion on her and to push a scumread on someone
-some of her points seem like too much of a stretch
-an opportunistic Ari vote

I'm not even sure what the motivation of this post is. Except to use it to push later. I put some spaces in between each player so its not a clusterbomb to read.

Acryon is scum who doesn't understand how someone can distrust 6 people because he's only hunting for a selection of the scum in this game.
Lalendra case is full of a lot of 'Lalendra is being weird' points and her doing things that people don't understand.
Someone make striking points that I can relate to on Lalendra or you should get on board this sexier wagon.

-Cheetory

Word up.

368, 383

i) I will fully admit that I'm being a little slow with reading Lalendra and I think it's moreso because I feel uninvested in the interactions with her and that's probably my fault for not getting involved and asking her questions.

Ya no, I'm done here. If you don't lynch that

scum

wolf I swear.

After he is gone we won't have any use for the night phase. We only need to construct a list of possible associations and lynch from that list.

[pisskop]

Farside, grab your rope and silver.

[Cheetory6]

He coaches Lal

I'd love to see quotes which show this, because this feels like a hard misrep to me.

consistently uses her wagon as a basis for his scumhunting

Pretty sure I used Ari as more of a basis for scumhunting on D1 than Lalendra?

Cheetory wasn 't bussing her, but taking the middle ground right up until critical mass.

So me being more convinced that West/Acryon were scum on D1 than I was in Lalscum means that I'm her scummate?
I'm pretty sure Vyse should be considered a more likely option for wolf before me?

Why the sudden interest in wolves the moment that someone gives you permission to say that the Ari wagon isn't very good?
I'm honestly feeling Aristo/Pisskop scumteam right now.
The voteswitches pisskop has made this cycle have been really opportunistic in a way that strikes me as him potentially trying to seem like he both wants towncred for an Ari scumlynch and also wants to get off the moment that he thinks he can get away with it and start a counterwagon.

[Cheetory6]

164 is Lal jumping onto the work of Ginko in 81 - 99, where he wifomed Orci into a scumread. True story, go look.

Lmfao so her buddying me makes me scum? Are you fucking daft?

[Cheetory6]

292 is what I meant by 'coaching'. He's guiding her with questions while soft-defending her.

So asking her to get an avatar [which I also asked someone else to do this game] and asking her a single question is coaching.
Yeah.
Fucking stretch a mile further.

[pisskop]