Kingmaker II-Game Over
-
-
RafK Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 265
- Joined: January 3, 2006
So silly that I'm the only one suspicious of Yos.
Oh, wait.
You're welcome to disagree with me as to whether you think he's scum, but to say it's silly to be suspicious of him = silly itself. There's very obviously legit reasons to suspect him, regardless of what you think of the strength of the case.-
-
Thok Disgrace to SKs everywhere
- Disgrace to SKs everywhere
- Disgrace to SKs everywhere
- Posts: 7013
- Joined: March 28, 2005
Official vote count
King petroleumjelly (0):
Cavane (0):
Fritzler (3):
KaleiÐoscøpe (0): mnowax, Fritzler
Lowell (0): Yosarian2, mnowax
Mastermind of Sin (0):
mnowax (3): Fritzler, Yosarian2, VitaminR
RafK (0):
ThAdmiral (0): mnowax, VitaminR, Fritzler
Thesp (0):
Toaster Strudel (0):
VitaminR (2):
Yosarian2 (3):
Zindaras (0): Yosarian2
Edit: FixedLast edited by Thok on Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.I replaced into Chess Mafia for 6 months, and all I got was a win and this lousy sig.-
-
petroleumjelly he/him/hisThirteenthly, ...he/him/his
- Thirteenthly, ...
- Thirteenthly, ...
- Posts: 6219
- Joined: November 27, 2005
- Pronoun: he/him/his
- Location: Tacoma, WA
Mod, ThAdmiral is voting mnowax2, VitaminR, andFritzler, not Yosarian2. Please adjust the vote count.
Still deciding what I want to do here. As an advance warning, I'll be leaving for summer vacation either this Friday or Saturday, and I don't know if I'll have internet access.
I hope to leave some sort of assignments for people before I leave, but I've yet to determine what it will be. I'm strongly considering the following:
Creating a list of all the players in the game, and having everybody analyze the two people below them (and for those people at the bottom of the list, they just look back to the top). Still, I would want said list to be arranged in such a way that I don't get somebody doing an analysis they've already done, so this would still require me to reread the game so that we'll get new standpoints instead of rehashed ones. As an obvious side-effect, this should force the lesser participants into participating as well as making sure somebody (two people at least, if I use that plan) is watching them.
After having each person analyze both persons under them, they must then answer which of those two they wouldratherhave executedifthey were forced to choose.
So that's what's on my mind. If anybody would like to make tweaks or suggestions, I'm open to them, but that doesn't mean I'll incorporate them."Logic? I call that flapdoodle."-
-
Cavane Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 432
- Joined: March 28, 2007
-
-
ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5920
- Joined: September 20, 2006
- Location: The Hills
-
-
Toaster Strudel Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2010
- Joined: April 1, 2006
- Location: Freezer
Yeah, near 100 pages, still 14 players... that's a lot of read-through. But limiting to 2 or 3 players is a good idea.[i][url=http://chantalpare.ca]Squeezable icing, flaky pastry crust and sweet, gooey fillings are irresistible.[/url][/i]
[url=http://www.lawrencejoseph.org/1indexh2.html]The Harpits Greatest Pits - Free MP3's[/url]-
-
Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
- Cassandra Complex
- Cassandra Complex
- Posts: 15163
- Joined: October 30, 2004
- Location: Sleeping with the Godfather's Daughter
-
-
petroleumjelly he/him/hisThirteenthly, ...he/him/his
- Thirteenthly, ...
- Thirteenthly, ...
- Posts: 6219
- Joined: November 27, 2005
- Pronoun: he/him/his
- Location: Tacoma, WA
I've been randomly staying up late and felt like reminiscing (mostly because I just finished a book and couldn't go to bed afterwards). I'll be the first to admit I've been procrastinating reading this game, but on the other hand itis99 pages long. However, I want VitaminR to clarify his position on "summary posts" in light of an example in action.
I was reading through Simon Mafia [Mini 318] and I was reminded exactly why I don't like summary posts. There were two such posts in this game that caught my eye:
1.) Post 288, by MikeBurnFire. He posts some fluff afterwards, but none of it pertaining to the summary.
2.) Post 587, by VitaminR himself. A summarization post without any opinions attached. And why? Because he hasn't been posting lately, and wanted to look like he was contributing. Later (aboutfive dayslater, to be precise) VitaminR claims to have forgotten about the game, and then throws out a few 'conclusions' in [605] of Simon, which certainly don't seem worth the wait for such a large summary.
Here's the fun part: MBF was the Mafia Godfather. And VitaminR was the Serial Killer. Those were the only two summarization posts without personal comments on them, and both were made for the purposes of looking as if they were 'contributing'. I haven't really read over old games in a while (should probably do more of that to keep me sharp), but I think it says quite a bit about a scumtell being effective when I decide to read asinglegame, and seetwoinstances of a scumtell I firmly believe in committed, and havingbothof this instances come from scum. I'm positive if I were to review old games specifically for the purposes of corroborating this tell, it would stand the test of percentages.
I want to hear what VitaminR now thinks about Dead Rikimaru's giant summary post (which he at one point said suspicion of was a 'fallacy' of some sort, but I don't want to search for it). Also, Vitty, if you can find a game (or happen to recall one) where you've done summarization posts like that when you weretown, I would be much obliged.
---
In response to Cavane, I limited it specifically to 2 players because the game is so monstrously long and I don't want to give people anything more than they can chew.
In response to MoS, I'll think about it."Logic? I call that flapdoodle."-
-
VitaminR Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3668
- Joined: November 14, 2005
- Location: Somerville, MA
PJ, I can remember a number of games in which I've done scummaries (summaries of opinions), but that was the only real instance of me doing a summary. It was honestly more to do with losing track of the game. For all intents and purposes, I was trying to find scum. I didn't have to fake suspicions, because I didn't know who the scum were. That makes your points somewhat problematic.
Regardless of my personal behaviour, though, I really don't think you can attach that much weight to a tell without context. Even with potential statistical backing, there remains a great deal of individual variation. You cannot draw inferences about individual behaviour from population characteristics.
PJ, my point is this. A lack of commentary is scummy because it can be used to avoid attention. This advantage is nullified if the scum involved is the King. You're disregarding context. Similarly, lurking could be considered a tell, but in a large game with this many pages and this many lurkers, it shouldn't really be viewed as indicative of anything.-
-
petroleumjelly he/him/hisThirteenthly, ...he/him/his
- Thirteenthly, ...
- Thirteenthly, ...
- Posts: 6219
- Joined: November 27, 2005
- Pronoun: he/him/his
- Location: Tacoma, WA
Pretty sure Iamconsidering context.
1.) Dead Rikimaru was clearly not contributing while he was King. His summarization made it seem as if he was making a very large contribution to the game whilst saying absolutely nothing. Everybody waswaitingfor him to dosomething, and instead of giving any of his own opinions he decided to post a giant post of fluff. And this was while he was continually trying to bait us along with his great plan, telling us to constantly just wait a little longer.
2.) This particular scum-tell is not entirely relevant whether or not you are trying to find scum - it is indicative of somebody who feels they have tolook like they are contributing without actually doing so. Your post does exactly that. MBF's did exactly that. And DR in this game certainly looks like exactly that. The context of people wanting DR to contributesomethingis what I am focusing on.
3.)
This is striking me as terribly wrong. More people lurking than usual (which I'm not sure is even entirely true for a large game such as this) doesn't excuse those who are lurking. Anything that increases the chances of somebody being scum is something I consider to be a scumtell.VitaminR wrote:Similarly, lurking could be considered a tell, but in a large game with this many pages and this many lurkers, it shouldn't really be viewed as indicative of anything.
There are, I figure, either 5 or 6 scum in this game. I am personally playing as if there are 6 scum, simply because that's the safest way to play. So:
6/24 = 1/4 = 25%
Basically so long as a fraction more 25% of the lurkers are scum, it still stands as a scumtell. It's by no meansdefinitive, but it is definitely somethingto take note of."Logic? I call that flapdoodle."-
-
RafK Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 265
- Joined: January 3, 2006
Two comments:
1) The one problem with the analysis of DR is that he strung us along to no avail: he disappeared and got replaced. He disappeared for weeks on end, tried to answer the clamouring by just spewing some long notes into the thread, then gave up on the game entirely and disappeared without a goodbye. It's not a lurking scenario, it's an inactivity scenario. And to metagame slightly, I would think that scum king would be one of the most interesting spots to be in the game, not a spot to go inactive in.
It's not impossible for him to be scum, but I don't think his lurking during his kingship is a good tell, because it was inactivity rather than lurking.
2) I instinctively distrust mathematical arguments in mafia games. I agree with you that it's likely 6, maaaybe 5, total mafia (which means we still face an organised group of scum, not one or two lone voices), but I don't support any lurker lynch arguments based on statistics.-
-
VitaminR Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3668
- Joined: November 14, 2005
- Location: Somerville, MA
He was clearly not contributing, that is my point. That summarisation could not make it seem as if he was making a very large contribution, because it was too obvious that it was fluff.petroleumjelly wrote:1.) Dead Rikimaru was clearly not contributing while he was King. His summarization made it seem as if he was making a very large contribution to the game whilst saying absolutely nothing. Everybody waswaitingfor him to dosomething, and instead of giving any of his own opinions he decided to post a giant post of fluff. And this was while he was continually trying to bait us along with his great plan, telling us to constantly just wait a little longer.
I don't see why that cannot apply to a townie as well. My point still stands, though. In this context, DR's post does not look like that. No one was fooled for a second, because his position was too conspicuous.petroleumjelly wrote:2.) This particular scum-tell is not entirely relevant whether or not you are trying to find scum - it is indicative of somebody who feels they have tolook like they are contributing without actually doing so. Your post does exactly that. MBF's did exactly that. And DR in this game certainly looks like exactly that. The context of people wanting DR to contributesomethingis what I am focusing on.
Perhaps, but again, drawing strong inferences about individual behaviour from population characteristics is fallacious.petroleumjelly wrote:Basically so long as a fraction more 25% of the lurkers are scum, it still stands as a scumtell. It's by no meansdefinitive, but it is definitely somethingto take note of.-
-
Thesp Supersaint
- Supersaint
- Supersaint
- Posts: 5781
- Joined: November 4, 2004
- Location: Round Rock, TX
I had some connectivity issues the other day when I tried to post this, but I've got it here:
Vote: Mastermind of Sin, ThAdmiral, KaleiÐoscøpe, mnowax.
Mod: Can Fritzler be replaced/modkilled? Thanks.
Some suspicions are based on the kill last night (which I'm beginning to think more and more is actually useful information), some are latent, and some are for yesterday's activity. I'll clarify more later."When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning." -Reiner Knizia
Ask me about my automatic votecounter, and how you can use it inyourgame!
Check out my 15 minutes of fame on Wait Wait...Don't Tell Me!-
-
Thok Disgrace to SKs everywhere
- Disgrace to SKs everywhere
- Disgrace to SKs everywhere
- Posts: 7013
- Joined: March 28, 2005
-
-
petroleumjelly he/him/hisThirteenthly, ...he/him/his
- Thirteenthly, ...
- Thirteenthly, ...
- Posts: 6219
- Joined: November 27, 2005
- Pronoun: he/him/his
- Location: Tacoma, WA
Okay – the Jelly Circle begins now. Each person has to make an analysis of the two people below them, and then decide which of those two players they would execute if they were absolutelyforcedto. If you are one of the two bottom people on the list, revert to the top until you find the two players "after" you.
Those who do not comply will be put directly onto the LoE. I did a narrowed reading of the game, and tried to arrange the list in such a way so that people are commenting on people they haven't really talked about in detail for a few days. There were a few people hard to stick in this category (like MoS, who everybody seems to have commented on), but for the most part I think this should work fairly well. Note that Idoexpect analyses to cover any and all replacements.
Jelly Circle
1.) petroleumjelly
2.) Thesp
3.) Lowell
4.) Zindaras
5.) ThAdmiral
6.) VitaminR
7.) RafK
8.) Fritzler
9.) Mastermind of Sin
10.) Toaster Strudel
11.) Cavane
12.) mnowax2
13.)K-Scope
14.) Yosarian2
I felt like making it rainbow colored. So sue me. Hopefully everybody will have this done before I come back from vacation.
Mod Edit: Fixed"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."-
-
petroleumjelly he/him/hisThirteenthly, ...he/him/his
- Thirteenthly, ...
- Thirteenthly, ...
- Posts: 6219
- Joined: November 27, 2005
- Pronoun: he/him/his
- Location: Tacoma, WA
-
-
RafK Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 265
- Joined: January 3, 2006
-
-
KaleiÐoscøpe =====[]
- =====[]
- =====[]
- Posts: 2821
- Joined: June 11, 2006
- Location: Straight from the Asylum
-
-
ThAdmiral Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5920
- Joined: September 20, 2006
- Location: The Hills
-
-
Yosarian2 (shrug)
- (shrug)
- (shrug)
- Posts: 16394
- Joined: March 28, 2005
- Location: New Jersey
Ok. So, I analyze you and Thesp, PJ., and say which one of the two of you I would kill if I had to?
I'll try to do a full analysis when I have time; honestly, the very thought of doing such a re-read kind of exausts me. So let's get started with me just saying what my gut is about the two of you at the moment before I re-read.
I wouldn't really want to execute either you or thesp, because neither one of you seems very scummy to me. If I had to choose one or the other, at the moment, (again, before my re-read), I would choose to execute Thesp. Basically, I've got pro-town vibes from PJ, and neutral vibes from Thesp, from such things as the treatement of SV (pablito's "unsure/probably not" answer to the execute SV question made sense to me at the time, but it could also be a scum partner type of reaction) and from seeing the way Thesp acts as scum in other games, I could see pablito/thesp being either scum or town, while PJ has been giving me a fairly strong pro-town vibe. Again, Thesp is nowhere near the top of my own personal list of suuspects, but if it came down to either Thesp or PJ, I'd say execute Thesp.
Hopefully, I'll be able to go into more detail once I do a re-read, if I can find the time for that.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
-
Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
- Cassandra Complex
- Cassandra Complex
- Posts: 15163
- Joined: October 30, 2004
- Location: Sleeping with the Godfather's Daughter
-
-
Lowell Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6318
- Joined: July 25, 2006
Okay I'll do these one at a time. Zindaras now, ThAdmiral later.
Zindaras-
Basically, it comes down to Zindy's reign as King. Specificially: Is there anything to suggest he was bussing a scumbuddy?
I read through starting at the top of page 86, where he reveals his LOE and first expresses his suspicion of SV (also Fritz and VitR). My conclusion:ZINDY IS INNOCENT. Why?
1) SV spent a lot of time in her posts sucking up to the king (for the best example, see post 2137). I think that, were this part of a larger scum gambit to sacrifice one of their own to make the scumking (a) look innocent, and (b) be more likely to be made king again, SV would have come out FIRING a little more. Basically, were I scum in said situation (with another scum openly targeting me), I would have taken the hint , played along, and done as much as possible to mock/cast suspicion on/loudly argue with the king.
Instead, SV seemed all too willing and happy to comply w/ king's requests, never once casting suspicion on him, or really do anything to draw his ire. So the question is: Why, if SV knew she was being sacrificed for the betterment of the team, wouldn't she put up a better show/fight?
2) If Scum were sacrificing one of their own to achieve the above goals, why would Zindaras have waited so long, drawing the ire of nearly everyone in the process? Certainly, killing TOO quickly and TOO assuredly would look bad, but reading through again, Zindy's reign lasted about 6 pages longer than most people were comfortable with. Nearly anywhere between pages 89 and 94, he could have said "All right, I've seen enough, here's my best guess". He didn't, and people (including me) took him to task for it. Just unnecessary for a scum to cause that much ruckus in my opinion, even for WIFOM purposes.-
-
Toaster Strudel Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2010
- Joined: April 1, 2006
- Location: Freezer
Lemme start with Fritzler.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 345#443345
Claims Pookyscum is "good guy."
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 346#443346
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 900#443900
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 901#443901
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 206#445206
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 894#455894
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 438#460438
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 171#463171
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 853#471853
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 983#495983
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 181#584181
Wants to kill townie (CTD).
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 205#466205
Claims to be scum with Pooky, in broad daylight.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 697#486697
Wants to kill townie (Nightson/Vikingfan/Toaster Strudel)
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 244#511244
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 793#512793
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 171#543171
Wants to kill ThAdmiral (Olio/StallingChamp/ChannelDelibird)
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 171#543171
Wants to kill MoS
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 326#545326
Claims to know VitaminR (rep. DragonsofSummer/Phoebus) is scum.
vote: Fritzler[i][url=http://chantalpare.ca]Squeezable icing, flaky pastry crust and sweet, gooey fillings are irresistible.[/url][/i]
[url=http://www.lawrencejoseph.org/1indexh2.html]The Harpits Greatest Pits - Free MP3's[/url]-
-
Toaster Strudel Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2010
- Joined: April 1, 2006
- Location: Freezer
-
-
Thok Disgrace to SKs everywhere
- Disgrace to SKs everywhere
- Disgrace to SKs everywhere
- Posts: 7013
- Joined: March 28, 2005
Fritzler seems to have not posted anywhere on MS since Sunday. I'm hunting for a replacement. I appreciate any help in this endeavour.Thok wrote:
I have sent Fritzler a prod giving him 24 hours to post or be replaced. I do not which to modkill any players in the game at this point in time.Thesp wrote:Mod: Can Fritzler be replaced/modkilled? Thanks.
If Fritzler shows up before I find a replacement, he will be allowed to continue playing. I do not plan on modkilling the role if it can be avoided.I replaced into Chess Mafia for 6 months, and all I got was a win and this lousy sig.
Copyright © MafiaScum. All rights reserved.