Micro 366: Vengeball (Game Over)

[ZZZX]

Vote Espresso

one of the people who beat me a while ago :>

[ZZZX]

I'm going to hold my vote until closer to deadline.

Why waste it now?

Vote Rubicon

Sometimes inaction is more powerful than action.

SHIET NU

Vote: Rubicon

[ZZZX]

boons confuses me , must be town

[ZZZX]

So what do you guys think of EspressoJet saying "Good luck finding blue team"? Why do you think he picked blue team instead of red?

Hmm Idk honestly

[ZZZX]

Its true but could it be a real slip? I have seen a few of those but they are not as common as people think,

[ZZZX]

With 2 scum teams I think the common scum hunting methods are not really 100% effective as both scum teams will have to actually to try scum hunt for scum so its actually easier to appear townie.

[ZZZX]

I actually got a weird idea.

Here is a question that might give us info

Who were the most people who pushed esp's post as scummy etc?

[ZZZX]

Yet you both somehow have managed to have votes and positions that follow from a clear thought process.

I'm not ruling out town!Molla. But that vote was shit.

This post reminds me of scum Rubi but I didnt meta you enough to be 100% sure.

[ZZZX]

I have a theory. Blue scum is 50% more likely to pick on that slip since they will believe it is more real (you got what I mean?)

which is really interesting. Since if you were werewolf in another game and you saw something hunting for WW and not mafia and it seemed like a slip the WW will be more likely to notice it.

[ZZZX]

With 2 scum teams I think the common scum hunting methods are not really 100% effective as both scum teams will have to actually to try scum hunt for scum so its actually easier to appear townie.

Oh my god, I never even thought about that!



Like, seriously, this post looks super sarcastic, but I'm actually going to have to go back and reread this thread with this in mind...

I had to say it since people were hinting at using the simple ways of scumhunting which would only get town in circles.

[ZZZX]

I have a theory. Blue scum is 50% more likely to pick on that slip since they will believe it is more real (you got what I mean?)

which is really interesting. Since if you were werewolf in another game and you saw something hunting for WW and not mafia and it seemed like a slip the WW will be more likely to notice it.

that's one of the reasons why I pointed it out. multiball reaction test.

so, What did you get so far>?

[ZZZX]

I can see what rubi said but I am not totally convinced about it. I will leave my vote for a bit.

[ZZZX]

WAIT!!! I actually think cappuccino might be scum.

He wanted to wait the day out longer so if Rubicon were to flip Vengeful Townie, he was definitely gonna venge kill his main suspect, right? If mocha is scum, he might be trying to keep away from the possibility that Rubicon has a lower chance of being scum, as he knows himself and his partner, so by probability, rubicon has a good chance of being a vengeful townie, thus ending Latte's streak.

Coffee, what is your reaction to this possibility?


PEdit: I meant espresso by those various coffee types, just in case you didn't catch on.

Well, that's some pretty good logic, but where you fall apart is the fact that I wasn't trying to get Rubic lynched in the first place. The only real scumread I have on him is the potential truth in post 78 from ZZZX


-----


@Drew: Your reads list is full of a lot of nothing, why did you bother posting a full list?

How should I read that?

The only scumread on rubi is from ZZZX's 78 post
or The only scumread on ZZZX is from his post 78?

Sorry but my english isnt perfect so sometimes I run into those props :<

[ZZZX]

That's why I said poorly executed. If you proclaim someone as scum, normally you drop the vote right away, not as an afterthought. After all, they're scum right? Vote them the hell off the island!

I can't vote all the scum though

Why does this feel like a muiltiball slip/miswording to me?

[ZZZX]

That's why I said poorly executed. If you proclaim someone as scum, normally you drop the vote right away, not as an afterthought. After all, they're scum right? Vote them the hell off the island!

I can't vote all the scum though

Why does this feel like a muiltiball slip/miswording to me?

ignore this. I feel so stubid.

[ZZZX]

If a townie gets lynched they must follow one step:

DO NOT BLINDLY OMGUS. 60% of the time the person who started the wagon is town. Scum usually play safer esp first day.

[ZZZX]

That's why I said poorly executed. If you proclaim someone as scum, normally you drop the vote right away, not as an afterthought. After all, they're scum right? Vote them the hell off the island!

I can't vote all the scum though

Molla, you've only thrown out one serious scum vote, and haven't talked much. Would you like to contribute to our discussions or would you like to continue lurking? The only reason not to actively scumhunt right now, regardless of alignment, is to try to not bring any attention to yourself.

If a townie gets lynched they must follow one step:

DO NOT BLINDLY OMGUS. 60% of the time the person who started the wagon is town. Scum usually play safer esp first day.

^This

WAIT!!! I actually think cappuccino might be scum.

He wanted to wait the day out longer so if Rubicon were to flip Vengeful Townie, he was definitely gonna venge kill his main suspect, right? If mocha is scum, he might be trying to keep away from the possibility that Rubicon has a lower chance of being scum, as he knows himself and his partner, so by probability, rubicon has a good chance of being a vengeful townie, thus ending Latte's streak.

Coffee, what is your reaction to this possibility?


PEdit: I meant espresso by those various coffee types, just in case you didn't catch on.

Well, that's some pretty good logic, but where you fall apart is the fact that

I wasn't trying to get Rubic lynched in the first place

. The only real scumread I have on him is the potential truth in post 78 from ZZZX

That's my point exactly. You wouldn't want him to be lynched as a vengeful townie because he would venge kill you.'

Clarification: You wouldn't want Rubicon

specifically

to flip vengeful townie, because he will venge kill you as you are his main suspicion. So you would want to protect him as much as you can for this round.

I wouldn't want

anybody

to flip town. There's potential for a perfect game here.

So far:
Mr Ree - post 39 appears like you're attempting to downplay a possible slip (I'd say almost protectively, but others also did the same so I am happy to say it isn't based on others responses), almost like you're setting a precedent for what should or shouldn't be read as a slip. Why?

Why do you feel it should it have been read as a slip? I don't feel it was but I'd like to hear why you do.

Further to this, you seem very interested in the self vote of Nespressojet in 44 - this is curious to me. RVS is, or should be, fairly random. Why does the self vote grab your attention?

Because it was a self vote when suspicion was being directed elsewhere.

It was part of a joke, I just haven't unvoted yet.

Afaik for myself self voting is something I do when town but you cant be sure anyway

[ZZZX]

Mr. Ree defending me is cool but I don't know what it means

Again, There is no whiteknighting in this.

[ZZZX]

One or both of Honey/Bert is scum probably.

Wait.. There is someone called honey in this game?

Time to look for his posts since I didnt notice him at all

[ZZZX]

so... That was the fastest iso I did in my life... Lol

[ZZZX]

This game is the shit. I just logged back on and have been laughing my ass off for the last ten minutes reading that whole exchange.

Boon, we need to play more games together. You're excellent value.

Give me a few hours and I'll have a look through and see if I can work out what happened from a scum-play. I actually thought Mr Ree was mafia, so need to have a good relook at things.

Dear goodness this is fucking good fun.

Basically sums up how I feel after waking up and finding game in day 2 lol

[ZZZX]

I read but I have aquestion.

Why the **** did you lynch... >.<

[ZZZX]

Prelude - we're at 7, meaning 4 mafia, 3 town I presume (two mafia roles, two teams, can't see there being more than two teams of two in the game).

Ok, have had a good read re the build to that lynch and then what has happened after.

Bert was, in many ways, the lynch-pin (lawl) to this. 176 gets Rubi at L-1. There was no real reason why, except, according to 118, he simply wanted to lynch someone. Hasn't done much since.

This sets the stage for Boon (our lovable hero) to hammer, and that's it.

Boon:

Spoiler:

Since RVS (I'm assuming his unvote denotes his exit of the phase) changes his vote from Bert, to Rubi, to Bert, to hammer Rubi, to George Clooney, to Bert. There's a focus here on Bert and Rubi. Now, I have NFI why, but either he's got a 'lynch all lurkers' thing going on, or he has an FOS for some reason not really stated (at least, not to me in his ISO). Bert has made it hard for himself with his posts, so Boon could be jumping on the wave here, but I'd like to ask Boon - why Bert?

Secondly, why not Nespresso, given you seem to have a FOS on him?

My issue with Boon here is he and Nespresso are bouncing off each other like two team mates. They're throwing mud at each other but not really analysing. Its got my curiosity. He's posting a lot of shit without a lot of method or meat to them. He's also doing a lot of selective scumhunting (he's made no attempt to look into ZZZX, Honeybee, BB, myself), and seems to have made a 'Oh well that sucks' tell in 204

To me, he is my prime candidate right now. He has a random playstyle, but in a game like this, random helps provide cover. Its a scatter tactic. People go 'Oh that Boon, he's just all cray cray'.

I don't. I think he's actually mafia.

VOTE: Boon

I like ya man, but I think you're one of them.

Honey bee:

Spoiler:

No real interaction except to fling mud at Bert, Nespresso and myself. Need more input. I will say:

Also looking at your iso, you never even bothered to vote anyone until after the lynch, yet you have like 50 posts in this thread and are pretty active, So I'm convinced.

This applies to you too, HB, so what's good for the goose is good for the gander.

Bert giving me scum vibes. The game I played with him he at least tried to care.

Same again. If you care, why not post more and do some actual analysis?

Also looking at your iso, you never even bothered to vote anyone until after the lynch, yet you have like 50 posts in this thread and are pretty active, So I'm convinced.

What has convinced you? I don't understand - he voted Boon, and then didn't change. You acknowledge he didn't change in a second post, but then maintain your point is still valid. What point?

Lazy analysis. Seems to be prod dodging more than anything. Not necessarily scum tells. Just problematic logic and play.

ZZZX:

Spoiler:

109 - why is there no white knighting? In fact, white knighting is probably what will lead us to scum? Finding out who is defending who will identify teams. This seems to me to be a deflection of tactics - something that will work for us is discredited in an attempt to discourage us from reading it as a tell.

Can you explain more about why you think there is no white knighting?

111 - either town tell or scum looking to play the VI.

234 - massive alarm bells for me. An attempt to get town cred by dismissing the previous lynch as 'dumb'.

Nespresso:

Spoiler:

Just... overload of posting. Seems to be spamming the game thread with zero analysis but an attempt to make himself look 'around' so noone can claim he is lurking. Can't say he is mafia, but can't say he isn't.

BBmolla:

Spoiler:

Appears certain Bert is mafia based on a feeling. Need more analysis. Previous experience makes me very, very wary.

tl:dr summary

mafia - I think Boon, Nespresso, ZZZX, Bert are mafia. I believe Boon is the one showing most.

I think Honey Bee is being lazy. I think Molla is null right now. I would flip between Bert / Molla depending on how much more they interact. My Bert read is mainly due to his blase attitude. It isn't pro-town at all.

Because if you are town and are hard defended usually that would mean the person defending might be scum but with muiltiball I dont think that applies. Am I wrong?

also Town cred has nothing to do when lying within 24 hours of the day start. Half the votes on the wagon (including mine) were still rvs-ish votes. yet you guys went ahead and lynched.

[ZZZX]

re-reading hammer makes me hate boon

Vote boonski

[ZZZX]

AlsoUNVOTE: Before someone fucking hammers again.

[ZZZX]

You are aware that by voting me you run into a deep risk. If either you or me were not blue scum then I would have been instantly hammered.

Looking deeper I found your play interesting. And since I am not seeing any quick hammers Its 75% sure that you are blue scum. I have another reason for believing so.

[ZZZX]

I will make sure that blue scum isnt really off before giving my vote just to make sure we dont lose this. Anyway I think I answered the post you talked about didnt I?

Meanwhile I will believe in the existance of VI-ancy because one clouded judgement will be bad. Right now I have a slight idea who blue scum is.

[ZZZX]

If either you or me were not blue scum then I would have been instantly hammered.

We don't know who has showed up yet. A set-up quickhammer via daytalk isn't even optimal at this point for blue - the quickhammerer likely gets vengekilled.

No venge kills at lylo.

[ZZZX]

You are aware that by voting me you run into a deep risk. If either you or me were not blue scum then I would have been instantly hammered.

Exactly. You've proven my point. The fact noone has voted for you yet indicates to me that you're likely scum. Town isn't going to quick hammer - red scum are. That noone has jumped on you (which is one of the reasons I voted you - to see who moved quickly) identifies that. At the moment we need to find red scum, and I think I've identified you as one.

Looking deeper I found your play interesting. And since I am not seeing any quick hammers Its 75% sure that you are blue scum. I have another reason for believing so.

Go on, I'm willing to listen. Make your case or stop flinging mud.

I will make sure that blue scum isnt really off before giving my vote just to make sure we dont lose this. Anyway I think I answered the post you talked about didnt I?

? Not sure what you mean. Please explain.

Meanwhile I will believe in the existance of VI-ancy because one clouded judgement will be bad. Right now I have a slight idea who blue scum is.

Name, justify and shame please. Withholding info is not helping town right now.

If either you or me were not blue scum then I would have been instantly hammered.

We don't know who has showed up yet. A set-up quickhammer via daytalk isn't even optimal at this point for blue - the quickhammerer likely gets vengekilled.

As ZZZX said, no venge kill. But the fact noone is willing to jump on this (the two of you being online and interacting) to me identifies one of two things - you don't believe me or you're red scum not wanting to lynch.

Your logic is built on the idea that you are not blue scum. However right now I am sure that you are. Am I wrong? Well I really believe that no town would do such a foolish play. Reminds me of 350 micro alot.

[ZZZX]

I will make my case later today. give me a sec

[ZZZX]

Your logic is built on the idea that you are not blue scum.

... because I'm not? Your logic is built on the fact I am blue scum and you're

not

red scum. Its a faulty argument.

However right now I am sure that you are. Am I wrong? Well I really believe that no town would do such a foolish play. Reminds me of 350 micro alot.

Laying my balls on the line, and seeing Bert (who, remember, said he was happy to lynch anyone - and jumped right on Rubi and Boon) not vote for you is giving me confidence I'm right here. He's been happy to get a lynch, if he were town, why would he rush so much to lynch those two, but not rush to lynch you? Is he waiting for his scum partner? Or are

you

his scum partner?

We're at Lylo with no real info to make a good decision. I felt we needed a drastic move to get info. I believe you're mafia. I believe you're red mafia too, as if you were blue then Bert would likely vote. And I believe Bert is your accomplice, as he is not voting despite being on and being lynch-happy.

Exactly what about 350 micro are you referencing specifically?

I will make my case later today. give me a sec

5 posts, 45 min, promising I am scum yet no justification. We're waiting.

Bolded the slip. You just slipped that you believe I am red scum and not blue. I got it out of you.

Now I told you I will do it later. Didnt I? Maybe telling you to give me a secound was bad wording but in 24 hours you will see it. But your posts are full of team-slips in muiltball. I am 100% sure you are not red scum atm.

[ZZZX]

This slip convinced me to place a vote on you.

Vote:Drew-Sta

Note: do not hammer anyone until I come back about 8 hours later. Please be careful about lynching as this is lylo.

[ZZZX]

Do not put anyone at L-1. I put drew at L2 since he is blue so blue team wont be able to quick hammer.

[ZZZX]

@ ZZZX: Bullshit. I just inverted your argument. Now you're stretching big time.

You claim I'm blue, and that you're town. Which means your argument is (der) based on me being blue and you not being red.

I'm claiming you are red, and Bert is your buddy, because Bert has not voted for you despite me doing so. If Bert was red and you weren't, he'd vote you and his partner would hammer.

My argument is simply the inversion of your claim. The difference is I have onus of proof as I claimed this D2, and have backed it up again.

IF I was red you know that blue mafia wins automatically if I get lynched if I were red? Are you THAT bad not to see this.

[ZZZX]

This:

My argument is simply the inversion of your claim. The difference is I have onus of proof as I claimed this D2, and have backed it up again.

... to clarify, I claimed ZZZX was mafia D2. I also claimed Bert was as well, although I was less confident of him.

You didnt. YOu gave a reason to scum read me and I explained how its bad and wrong.

[ZZZX]

I think Drew is the other town

You believe town would vote in Lylo that easily? I dont think so personally.

[ZZZX]

Actually fuck this I am not taking risks. I dont want to screw this up if he wasnt blue mafia.
UNVOTE:
I will vote once I made up my mind 100%

[ZZZX]

I'm claiming you are red, and Bert is your buddy, because Bert has not voted for you despite me doing so.

If Bert was red and you weren't, he'd vote you and his partner would hammer.

Why should I feel rushed to vote?

Because its clear he blue-slipped.

Also I dont want no hammer while sleeping. Derp

[ZZZX]

You are aware that by voting me you run into a deep risk. If either you or me were not blue scum then I would have been instantly hammered.

Exactly. You've proven my point. The fact noone has voted for you yet indicates to me that you're likely scum. Town isn't going to quick hammer - red scum are. That noone has jumped on you (which is one of the reasons I voted you - to see who moved quickly) identifies that. At the moment we need to find red scum, and I think I've identified you as one.

Looking deeper I found your play interesting. And since I am not seeing any quick hammers Its 75% sure that you are blue scum. I have another reason for believing so.

Go on, I'm willing to listen. Make your case or stop flinging mud.

I will make sure that blue scum isnt really off before giving my vote just to make sure we dont lose this. Anyway I think I answered the post you talked about didnt I?

? Not sure what you mean. Please explain.

Meanwhile I will believe in the existance of VI-ancy because one clouded judgement will be bad. Right now I have a slight idea who blue scum is.

Name, justify and shame please. Withholding info is not helping town right now.

If either you or me were not blue scum then I would have been instantly hammered.

We don't know who has showed up yet. A set-up quickhammer via daytalk isn't even optimal at this point for blue - the quickhammerer likely gets vengekilled.

As ZZZX said, no venge kill. But the fact noone is willing to jump on this (the two of you being online and interacting) to me identifies one of two things - you don't believe me or you're red scum not wanting to lynch.

Your logic is built on the idea that you are not blue scum.

... because I'm not? Your logic is built on the fact I am blue scum and you're

not

red scum. Its a faulty argument.

However right now I am sure that you are. Am I wrong? Well I really believe that no town would do such a foolish play. Reminds me of 350 micro alot.

Laying my balls on the line, and seeing Bert (who, remember, said he was happy to lynch anyone - and jumped right on Rubi and Boon) not vote for you is giving me confidence I'm right here. He's been happy to get a lynch, if he were town, why would he rush so much to lynch those two, but not rush to lynch you? Is he waiting for his scum partner? Or are

you

his scum partner?

We're at Lylo with no real info to make a good decision. I felt we needed a drastic move to get info. I believe you're mafia. I believe you're red mafia too, as if you were blue then Bert would likely vote. And I believe Bert is your accomplice, as he is not voting despite being on and being lynch-happy.

Exactly what about 350 micro are you referencing specifically?

I will make my case later today. give me a sec

5 posts, 45 min, promising I am scum yet no justification. We're waiting.

Bolded the slip. You just slipped that you believe I am red scum and not blue. I got it out of you.

Now I told you I will do it later. Didnt I? Maybe telling you to give me a secound was bad wording but in 24 hours you will see it. But your posts are full of team-slips in muiltball. I am 100% sure you are not red scum atm.

since he is blue he confused me as being red scum and that I should be lynched. I remeber something like that happened to me a year ago.

[ZZZX]

idk. I am going off to sleep right now. Cya in 8 hours. dont lynch until then.

[ZZZX]

Honeybee and Molla Care to ... share your opinions ?

[ZZZX]

Vote: Drew-sta

Yes. Lets hope I am right.

[ZZZX]

VOTE: Drew-Sta

[ZZZX]

So who do you think is the red mafia? I can see Bert being that.

Molla is town with me. idk about you.

[ZZZX]

I am not blue scum... Are you?

[ZZZX]

XD

well I am red. Honestly I felt I had to hammer blue now and lose better than just losing.

[ZZZX]

Drew sta is most definitely red goon.

I am not blue scum... Are you?

Zzzx stop trolling you know it's over already

Honey just admitted drew isprpbavly red

But But... :<


also honey ruined my trick now :>

[ZZZX]

i had an insane gambit I wanted to use but I never got to.

[ZZZX]

GG WP

[ZZZX]

not really. he ended up getting yo