NY 169: The EPIC XD Mafia Game of Greatness (Game Over)

[Sakura Hana]

So the thread lock prevented me from posting it, but I pretty much was thinking that Bert was scum right at the end.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Based on interactions with SSK, I think Ser Arthur Dayne is scum. His defense against an SSK flashwagon at the end of D1 based purely on the lack of associative tells is weak. I guess the flip side is that scum knew SSK wasn't dying D1 because he had a doc fake-claim so there would be some scum running him up. But, not claiming D1 would actually be beneficial for scum. And the reasoning is really bad. I am thinking SAD is very likely the second scum. Not sure about the others yet.

Sakura, can you answer my questions?

[Sakura Hana]

Sakura, can you answer my questions?

I haven't read everything since day start yet, I just thought of leaving that there since I couldn't post it yesterday.

[Sakura Hana]

Actually I just ISO'd you to find it, since

Sakura, you clearly read that and are aware of ffery's reactions to being told what to do with meta/trajectories so I don't really understand your 3091.

I am not aware exactly how/when she does vote trajectories, In that game she said she only does it when replacing in, but did it anyway, at that point I was conf town so I thought that's why she did it, then it turned out she was scum, and also that was the only game i've had to ask her to do the trajectory analysis, so I thought not doing it on her own was part of her scum game.

[geists]

Actually I just ISO'd you to find it, since

Sakura, you clearly read that and are aware of ffery's reactions to being told what to do with meta/trajectories so I don't really understand your 3091.

I am not aware exactly how/when she does vote trajectories, In that game she said she only does it when replacing in, but did it anyway, at that point I was conf town so I thought that's why she did it, then it turned out she was scum, and also that was the only game i've had to ask her to do the trajectory analysis, so I thought not doing it on her own was part of her scum game.

You were in Marketplace: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p5400667

And F-16 already posted the link to the posts in the AA game where I said I would use the tools and theory I thought appropriate to that game, not whatever behaviors somebody expected of me to call me town, including trajectory analysis.

It's the only game where you've asked me at all, despite a number of games we've played where I didn't do it.

If this really is something you consider one of my tells, then all I can ask is how the hell have you've managed to townread me in some of our other games? Because you've got precisely two games where I did any sort of analysis that could be called "trajectory analysys". And in only one of those games was it a voluntary effort.

I can see that when you don't call me out about it, your alignment varies. I can recall only one data point where you did call me out prior to this.

[Sakura Hana]

And you think I read every single post in Marketplace? That game was moving too fast for my liking and i left Nati all by himself, and even when I did read I skimmed and sometimes skipped pages.
Afair you had done trajectory analysis almost every solo game except on that one game where you were actually scum, which is why I thought it was a decent tell.
But since you're conf town now I was wrong.

[Sakura Hana]

Not to mention that by Day 3 I had already forgotten almost all posts from the previous days, hence why i felt disconnected with the game.

[Cephrir]

ok here's what I have so far. it's a big wall of text but I highly suggest you read it cause it seems p telling

Spoiler: TEXTWALL

I'm assuming MC and goodmorning are town, as well as geists bc gunsmith clear

Ser Arthur Dayne (6) - Casso the King of Seals, Bert,

Desperado

, Cephrir,

DOMO

,

pieguyn

pieguyn

(1) - Norlkaz
Cephrir (1) - Ser Arthur Dayne
Bert (1) - KoreanBBQ

Desperado

(1) - Sakura Hana

Not Voting (8) -

geists

,

MC Maraca

, F-16_Fighting_Falcon,

MafiaSSK

, zMuffinMan, Generic,

goodmorning

, BROseidon

-------------------------

MafiaSSK

(8) - zMuffinMan,

geists

,

Desperado

, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana, Bert, Generic, Cephrir
Casso the King of Seals (3) -

goodmorning

,

DOMO

, Norlkaz
Bert (2) - KoreanBBQ, Ser Arthur Dayne

Desperado

(1) -

MC Maraca

Ser Arthur Dayne (1) -

pieguyn

Cephrir (1) - F-16_Fighting_Falcon

Not Voting (2) -

MafiaSSK

, BROseidon

-------------------------

Casso the King of Seals (7) -

goodmorning

, Norlkaz, BROseidon, Generic, zMuffinMan,

geists

,

Desperado

Desperado

(3) -

MC Maraca

, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana
Ser Arthur Dayne (3) -

pieguyn

, Cephrir, Bert
Bert (2) - KoreanBBQ, Ser Arthur Dayne
Cephrir (1) - F-16_Fighting_Falcon

Not Voting (2) -

MafiaSSK

,

DOMO

-------------------------

Desperado

(8) -

MC Maraca

, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana, Generic,

geists

, Cephrir, Bert, Ser Arthur Dayne
Casso the King of Seals (5) -

goodmorning

, BROseidon, zMuffinMan,

Desperado

,

DOMO

Cephrir (2) - F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Norlkaz
Bert (1) - KoreanBBQ
Ser Arthur Dayne (1) -

pieguyn

Not Voting (1) -

MafiaSSK

-------------------------

Desperado

(10)(LYNCH) -

MC Maraca

, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana, Generic, Cephrir, Ser Arthur Dayne,

geists

, KoreanBBQ,

pieguyn

, Bert
Casso the King of Seals (4) -

goodmorning

, BROseidon, zMuffinMan,

Desperado

Cephrir (3) - F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Norlkaz,

DOMO

Bert (1) -

MafiaSSK

Not Voting (0) - N/A

first off

EVERYONE: who do you think bussed SSK?

if we intersect that SSK wagon with the SSK deadline wagon at D1 we get {Casso, Sakura, Bert}. I'm calling Sakura town bc fuck it, and I'm hoping Bert is town. just hoping, not entirely sure, but oh fking well. leaving just Casso. looking through his ISO there's really not much interaction with Casso, just a small amount of questioning that doesn't really go much of anywhere (although that may be typical for SSK). now let's go back and look at D1

MafiaSSK (7) - Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana, KoreanBBQ, Bert, MC Maraca, Ser Arthur Dayne, pieguyn
Sakura Hana (3) - Tammy, DOMO, Desperado
Casso the King of Seals (3) - zMuffinMan, goodmorning, Generic
Stuffed Crust (1) - Cephrir
F-16_Fighting_Falcon (1) - BROseidon
goodmorning (1) - Norlkaz

Not Voting (4) - MafiaSSK, F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Stuffed Crust, geists

then there's this

But I mean, let's check out the reasons why everyone are voting for me, because I think we'll all find that they're all made up

Day 1, Votecount 71

MafiaSSK (7)

-

Casso the King of Seals

Pick someone else to take down.

I don't know who there will be enough votes on (potentially) to make this work and avoid a NL.

You don't like the SC or Falcon wagon, so who else would you compromise on that's actually likely to go well with your other townreads?

VOTE: Mafia SSK

I feel guilty as hell doing it, but.

Gives no reason for the vote. Neither before or after. Just keeps lumping me in with scum for really, no good reason.

Day 1, Votecount 71

MafiaSSK (7)

-

Sakura Hana,

I guess so

Unvote
Vote: SSK

Woo. Look at this, another baseless vote. And you know, I thought Sakura was being obvtown, but this was just a weird vote for her.

Day 1, Votecount 71

MafiaSSK (7)

-

KoreanBBQ

Does anyone townread mafiassk?
We can flashlynch that.

VOTE: SSK

I've been scumreading KoreanBBQ for a while now, but come one! A flashlynch? How could you get more scummy? You know what? It is scummy and bullshit.
So
VOTE: KoreanBBQ

Day 1, Votecount 71

MafiaSSK (7)

-

Bert

Vote: MafiaSSK

I'm just voting him because Nacho is

Yeah.

Yeah. Bert pretty much always screws up my radar but this is one of the worst votes. Blatantly admits to sheeping Nacho. Buddying, sheeping, whatever you want to call it, it's not a real vote. Bert is voting off of how good Nacho is when Nacho/Thor didn't even put up a reason themselves. Bert is looking for easy votes. Ugh.

Day 1, Votecount 71

MafiaSSK (7)

-

MC Maraca

Like literally there is no way to analyze anything of his wagon no matter the flip when he's lynched in half a day.

Bert somehow managed to coast, and still be called town in the most recent white flag, though.

VOTE: MafiaSSK

Oh come on Cabd, I expect more from you.
A. I go from null to scum in less than post.
B. You don't even give a reason for the vote!
Come on now people, my wagon is freaking meaningless!

But I digress.

Day 1, Votecount 71

MafiaSSK (7)

-

Ser Arthur Dayne

I'll be out the whole day tomorrow, and

might

check in before the deadline on the 26th, but in case I don't.

Unvote
Vote: MafiaSSK

Feel free to call this bussing if he flips town. That's likely to be the only piece of information you'll get from the wagon *shrug*

Yeah? You see how bad this vote is too? This just keeps happening.

But alas, there's one more vote to analyze. Let's see here

Day 1, Votecount 71

MafiaSSK (7)

-

pieguyn

holy crap my miss
sry, I don't have enough time/energy atm to follow what's going on >_<//I basically just saw "sakura wagon -> L-1 -> massive AtE/outburst/w.e happened -> it got disbanded -> SSK wagon" 0.0

how many votes are on SSK?

ok thx

vote: SSK

Nope. More sheeping.

So that's it folks, all seven votes, all completely reasonless. If you go and advance this lynch more, just know that. No one knows why they're voting me. They just want to.

now this one is interesting bc he votes BBQ. however, from what I can tell, there's nothing in his ISO indicating he has a townread on casso and casso is a bigger wagon. and in fact he was pissed off that casso was following Nati as indicated by this

How do you feel about SSK?

He seems like a good choice for common ground. Does Nati have a read on him yet?

I don't like the vagueness of this post. It feels like they're just ready to sheep Nat. I know that Nat and I have played together a while, but form your own opinions and have your own ground.

We haven't had a chance to talk about the game since SSK started to worry me.

Ffery, what am I doing that is worrying you?

Pedit: Cephrir, stop.

so why BBQ over casso here? is it bc your scumread on BBQ is so strong that you wanna start an entirely new wagon, despite making a deal over casso's sheeping of Nat earlier, when it's this close to deadline? or is it bc you don't wanna risk lynching your scumbuddy who'd a p good scumplayer

hint: it's bc you don't wanna risk lynching your scumbuddy who'd a p good scumplayer

so yeah Casso is scum. also here's the question again for clarity/convenience

EVERYONE: who do you think bussed SSK?

I might do more later but I dunno how much I can really get out o this. VCA is way harder in large games > <//

pie I hate to break it to you after all this work but I really don't think this is a good argument

Pie, I will also point out that SSK joined 1 major wagon (stuffed crust near deadline). His reaction to every other wagon has been "why is this wagon happening? I don't like it.". I don't know how you have a townread on Muffin.

I don't know how *anyone* has a townread on Muffin.

I was thinking about Cephrir's move on my walk today. It would be a hell of a scum move because the emotional manipulation is pretty fucking potent; when I read that post, I broke out in a massive smile and wanted to give Cephrir a big hug because he was a wonderful person. I know that there's a belief that good scum players can do anything, but it's the type of thing that I want to say feels too good to be coming from scum even though that lacks any sort of logic at all.

<3

I am going to feel so stupid if you're somehow scum but I guess then we'll be even.

Ffery. There was a good case on casso made by GM, and I for one am quite trusting it, and as for mara, well, SHE made that vote, not me.

Vote: MC Maraca

Call this vote on you symbolic because the GM case on me is shit and everyone knows it.

oh nacho

it's not the greatest case ever and is no thing of beauty but you two are good players, there's not likely a good case to be had on you

but you are scum.

This is one of the shittiest posts I have ever seen.

I've said this at least 4 times already but I would be tunneling the shit out of you if you weren't a mason.

Based on interactions with SSK, I think Ser Arthur Dayne is scum. His defense against an SSK flashwagon at the end of D1 based purely on the lack of associative tells is weak. I guess the flip side is that scum knew SSK wasn't dying D1 because he had a doc fake-claim so there would be some scum running him up. But, not claiming D1 would actually be beneficial for scum. And the reasoning is really bad. I am thinking SAD is very likely the second scum. Not sure about the others yet.

Sakura, can you answer my questions?

I thought SAD was scum at one point yesterday but I've seen some things that made me question the read. Maybe I'll pull them up for you later.

[Bert]

Someone who has played with Bert more than once, is he any good at faking the demeanor at all? Otherwise I'm just about ready to call him town [this is based on everything from his entry to page 100, not just up to this point].

I can fake that demeanor, and if you're trying to read me, that is not what you look for. I'm saying this now since you are very misguided about how to read me. I'm giving you a chance to try looking at this from a different light in case you are town. If you don't, I'll just sit content with a good gut scumread on you

currently, I think you are scum from your way of "sorting" me as if you're getting ready to vote me if the tide turns my way

it's the shady positioning. the "you make me want to call you town, but then you say weird things that are shooting yourself in the foot." That's the type of thing Ffery-scum says when fencesitting about me.

[Empire]

Day 3, Votecount 3

MafiaSSK (3)

-

Generic, Bert, pieguyn

MC Maraca (1)

-

Casso the King of Seals

Casso the King of Seals (1)

-

MC Maraca

Bert (1)

-

Ser Arthur Dayne

Not Voting (10)

-

F-16_Fighting_Falcon, MafiaSSK, BROseidon, Norlkaz, goodmorning, Sakura Hana, zMuffinMan, Cephrir, KoreanBBQ, geists

With 16 alive, it takes 9 to lynch! Deadline is on January 26th at 4:30 PM EST or in (expired on 2014-01-26 17:28:18)

Mod Notes

-

N/A

[geists]

Someone who has played with Bert more than once, is he any good at faking the demeanor at all? Otherwise I'm just about ready to call him town [this is based on everything from his entry to page 100, not just up to this point].

I can fake that demeanor, and if you're trying to read me, that is not what you look for. I'm saying this now since you are very misguided about how to read me. I'm giving you a chance to try looking at this from a different light in case you are town. If you don't, I'll just sit content with a good gut scumread on you

currently, I think you are scum from your way of "sorting" me as if you're getting ready to vote me if the tide turns my way

it's the shady positioning. the "you make me want to call you town, but then you say weird things that are shooting yourself in the foot." That's the type of thing Ffery-scum says when fencesitting about me.

Not only when I'm scum. Depending on your play, I sometimes either waffle or misread you entirely when I'm town. Still smarting from my short stint in BRO's game.

[Bert]

Cephrir seems to think that I'm this party animal that posts the most random troll stuff that I did in Hard Boiled and also sheeps everything that comes within 6 inches of my face. I'm trying to get through to him/her that this is not the case, as we will likely be in games in the future together.

[Casso the King of Seals]

Cephrir seems to think that I'm this party animal that posts the most random troll stuff that I did in Hard Boiled and also sheeps everything that comes within 6 inches of my face. I'm trying to get through to him/her that this is not the case, as we will likely be in games in the future together.

You're a party animal!

[Cephrir]

Someone who has played with Bert more than once, is he any good at faking the demeanor at all? Otherwise I'm just about ready to call him town [this is based on everything from his entry to page 100, not just up to this point].

I can fake that demeanor, and if you're trying to read me, that is not what you look for. I'm saying this now since you are very misguided about how to read me. I'm giving you a chance to try looking at this from a different light in case you are town. If you don't, I'll just sit content with a good gut scumread on you

currently, I think you are scum from your way of "sorting" me as if you're getting ready to vote me if the tide turns my way

it's the shady positioning. the "you make me want to call you town, but then you say weird things that are shooting yourself in the foot." That's the type of thing Ffery-scum says when fencesitting about me.

I am slowly figuring that out, yes. (But I'm still going to townread you if Hard Boiled-you happens again, and I have no concerns about you knowing that)

I'm fencesitting to hell and back on you right now. This fence is surprisingly comfortable. If you want to scumread me for that, be my guest.

[Bert]

Cephrir seems to think that I'm this party animal that posts the most random troll stuff that I did in Hard Boiled and also sheeps everything that comes within 6 inches of my face. I'm trying to get through to him/her that this is not the case, as we will likely be in games in the future together.

You're a party animal!

^says the guy who has been to parties and had alcohol AND lives in a party city - to the guy who has never had a drink in his life and ordered coke at his first bar experience last week.

totes a party animal

[Casso the King of Seals]

Ffery. There was a good case on casso made by GM, and I for one am quite trusting it, and as for mara, well, SHE made that vote, not me.

Vote: MC Maraca

Call this vote on you symbolic because the GM case on me is shit and everyone knows it.

oh nacho

it's not the greatest case ever and is no thing of beauty but you two are good players, there's not likely a good case to be had on you

but you are scum.

I'm flattered, but no.

[zMuffinMan]

I don't know how *anyone* has a townread on Muffin.

neither do i, tbh

but then people are townreading casso, so stranger things have happened

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am surprised more people aren't commenting on SAD's wierd defense of SSK considering we now know for sure that SSK is scum.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

You guys do realize the MafiaSSK wagon literally gives 0 percent of actual helpful information right?

This is just wrong considering all scum lynches help achieve the town wincon.

Like literally there is no way to analyze anything of his wagon no matter the flip when he's lynched in half a day.

The one thing I got from this is Arthur is probably scum.

So who's good enough to analyze mafiassk's whopping 34 posts for scum-relationship tells if he flips scum?

Why does this matter? There's no downside to lynching scum at all.

How do we have 145+ pages of Day 1 and then we push the most useless wagon.

Like if mafiassk flips scum the ONLY thing we gain is one scum down (which I mean is kinda good but it's literally a random chance right now). We gain no other helpful info, and we start day 2 with no lynch info whatsoever.

This seems especially bad in light of Tammy pointing out that Arthur isn't an information lynch person. Will have to investigate that further.

Also feel free to analyze the "strong" wagons but you'll be literally analyzing them blindly because the mafiassk lynch/flip and the wagon relates a whole total of 0 percent to those "strong" wagons.

More emphasis on wagon analysis and less on SSK's actual possible affiliation.

How will you be doing things differently if mafiassk flips town? What if he flips scum? How will you take into account his flip and/or his wagon and how will you use this new found piece of information?

More flawed analysis that misses the point that lynching any scum is good.

Also you are literally wanting to wagon mafiassk because he's likely not to be here and thus not likely to pull an AtE like Sakura just did, and thus you won't feel bad if his wagon flips town.

This is a decent point but I don't like the continued defense. Arthur hasn't defended anyone else like this.

I don't actually do analysis before a flip, but I would imagine if she were to flip scum I would learn a lot more from her 174 posts than from mafiassk's 34 posts if he were to flip scum

More pushing of the "info-lynch" angle trying to get Sakura lynched instead of SSK.

I'll be out the whole day tomorrow, and

might

check in before the deadline on the 26th, but in case I don't.

Unvote
Vote: MafiaSSK

Feel free to call this bussing if he flips town. That's likely to be the only piece of information you'll get from the wagon *shrug*

This feels awkward. I do believe he is bussing.

[Cephrir]

Now you just have to tell me what the point is of defending SSK-scum who is guaranteed to be lynched eventually.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

And you think I read every single post in Marketplace?

So what about the AA game? You think it was an exception because ffery was in a hydra?

That game was moving too fast for my liking and i left Nati all by himself, and even when I did read I skimmed and sometimes skipped pages.
Afair you had done trajectory analysis almost every solo game except on that one game where you were actually scum, which is why I thought it was a decent tell.
But since you're conf town now I was wrong.

I don't this is true. Can you substantiate it. Also, when confronted by evidence that ffery doesn't do trajectory analysis always as town, you qualify that statement saying now that she does it in solo games. So, why were you scumreading her in

this

game where she isn't playing solo?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Now you just have to tell me what the point is of defending SSK-scum who is guaranteed to be lynched eventually.

How was it guaranteed that SSK would be lynched eventually? Nobody had a real case on him. Regardless of its accuracy, the case that he wasn't likely to obvtown is pretty bad. Why not defend a buddy against a bad case? The "point" would be to lynch a townie on D1 instead of his buddy. That's one mislynch for the scum. That's a much better start for them than having a scumlynch D1. The way he was defending him strikes me as odd too. He never once states that he thought SSK was actually town. He is distancing from SSK while defending him.

[Cephrir]

Was that not after SSK claimed doc? His claim was a death sentence.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

No, it was before. ISO them together.

[zMuffinMan]

i don't see it. it's possible but it seems convoluted from SAD to defend him that hard only to eventually vote him and have him claim doc. it looked more like SAD was fighting against what he thought was a policy lynch that garnered no information if mafiassk was town. your argument there is essentially "he didn't want to lynch someone we now know is scum."

"meh," is all i have to say about that