Mini 417: Dueling Gods Mafia Over

[Kison]

Vote : Cogito Ergo Sum

because this is a random vote.

[Kison]

Disliking the role hinting from OMG, and pretty much everything CES said I agree with.

[Kison]

EBWODP: Uh...WTF at my other post...how do I have the vote count in that post? Am I seeing things...or did the mod sneak edit that into my post?

MOD put it there to keep it at the top of each page.

[Kison]

omg he's innocent wtf...

[Kison]

I agree, we shouldn't go to the extent of protecting him, nor should he be cleared by any means.

[Kison]

I'll take it a step further...

Unvote

Vote : Cokebottle

[Kison]

No, I don't suspect CES either. I don't think anyone could possibly be so stupid as to blatantly ruin his own team like that. However, it may be an attempt to play noob card by doing something so ridiculous that you'd say, "oh, he can't be serious!"

So I'm not giving him the benefit of the doubt. If he's going to play with fire, he will be put out before he burns down our little courthouse.

[Kison]

I'm not so sure about no-lynch. There's a better chance for scum to hit innocent with a night-kill than there is for us to hit innocent with a lynch. With there being two mafia groups, statistically, each group has half the chance of hitting scum with a night kill as we do, because they know the members of one of the existing groups.

[Kison]

Nah you hammered. Elias unvoted and Livingod has not put that in yet.

[Kison]

Club roleblocker missed with roleblocking, which actually gives decent information....
eg. if i was roleblocker, and i had roleblocked, say, great sir utnut, we could be sure 100% that gsu wasnt club mafia as club mafia's kill went through.

If there are multiple scum in each group, then would blocking one person's role necessarily block the entire group's night kill?

The cop work seems a bit complicated, as well. It's going to be very difficult to clear anyone because it would require two investigations from each cop in order to ensure that one person is not a member of either mafia group. And by the time that would happen, it's more likely that one of the cops would be dead.

[Kison]

I have to agree that OMG's asking to not be protected is pro-town if anything. Were he scum, it'd only make sense for him to not mention it, hoping that the doc would waste the night action on him.

I'll be looking through the thread again to see if I can come up with anything solid for anyone else.

[Kison]

I have to agree that OMG's asking to not be protected is pro-town if anything. Were he scum, it'd only make sense for him to not mention it, hoping that the doc would waste the night action on him.

I'll be looking through the thread again to see if I can come up with anything solid for anyone else.

?.

Was that suppose to be a question?

[Kison]

Vote : PlaysWithSquirrels

Scum have evil hearts.

Vote Count

As of post 191

Squirrels (2) - Kison, Omg
Omg (2) - Nocmen, Nyktorion
Sage (1) - Squirrels

[Kison]

MOD

: Requesting Replacement/Prod For Sandy. Not even confirmed yet...

[Kison]

Sage's vote seems rather opportunistic now that I look more closely at it. He "doesn't want to lynch Squirrels", so why vote over an FOS? He's not inactive, so it's not as if a vote is going to bring him around.

I'm not switching votes based on this, as there are two scum groups.

[Kison]

I think Sage meant he was not voting OMG

to

lynch him, but rather to get him to speak up. My problem is the fact that he found it necessary to mention the lack of desire to lynch him to begin with. Seems overly defensive to me.

[Kison]

OMG's playstyle is not bothering me. Lack of anything concrete and his pointless posts, however, are another issue. I don't see him as really trying to help, as he's being condescending in his words of wisdom.

However, lack of assistance from anyone else kind of makes me believe he's a horrible townie rather than scum.

I see a point with Sage, however, I do not think he is scum.
Sqirrels on the other hand is questionable.

[Kison]

First off :

REPLACE : SANDY

Secondly, I am inclined to believe Nyktorion, soley based on OMG's coke-like behavior. I don't know if he's scum, or an idiot, or some kind of bomb. Either way, he needs to be rid of. IF Nyktorion is lying, he'll be lynched tomorrow.

Unvote

Vote : omg_im_innocent_wtf

[Kison]

That would make it five.

[Kison]

I believe six was all we needed.

[Kison]

I dun't buy it.

[Kison]

Code: Select all

Alive:
1. Great Sir Utnut
2. Elias_the_thief
3. Kison
4. PlaysWithSquirrels
5. Nocmen
6. Sage
7. videoguy
8. Spag


Dead:
Day 1   - Cokebottle,           Spades Roleblocker
Night 1 - CES,                  Spades Doctor
Day 2   - omg_im_innocent_wtf,  Clubs Roleblocker
Night 2 - Nyktorion,            Spades Cop

So when it comes down to Town VS Spades, we're pretty much screwed. There's no-one left to investigate them or to block them from making kills. The thing I am interested to know is how many scum are possibly in each group. So far, not a single scum player has managed to die. And I find that to be extremely unlikely with two scum groups sending out kills in addition to our daily lynches. However, last night was exceptional with the fact that Nyktorion had broadcasted his role. So obviously the Spades group would go after him to prevent any further investigations against them. However, what interests me is that there was no second kill during the night. Either the Clubs mafia was stupid and went for the same kill when it would have been no benefit to themselves, or the doc did us some good.

The unfortunate loss to us in this game comes from the fact that both Cokebottle and OMG were complete morons and falsely claimed. Therefore, one can't really draw up statistical approximations to attempt to figure out how many scum there are in the game based on the fact that not a single scum player has managed to die. Were all kills to have been legit, I'd have to approximate 4 scum in the game with 2 in each group. However, we can't draw that conclusion because only one kill has been without a claim, and that was CES.

So for the time, we should assume the worst and that there are

6

scum in the game,

3

per group. In this case,

no-one should claim

, in hopes that scum kill scum during the night. Assuming 4 VS 4, we have a 50% chance of hitting scum. Assuming 6 VS 2, we have a 75% chance of hitting sum. Either way, I like the odds.

One thing to note: What do we do about our Clubs cop? I'm very hesitant to ask him to claim. In the 6 VS 2 scenerio, that'd be a loss of ONE OF TWO townies. That's huge. My advice is to hold off on your claim until tomorrow.

Assuming the 6 VS 2 scenerio...

A lynch would have a 1/8 chance of hitting the clubs cop. Obviously, at that point, you'd need to claim and give up your information. So this can be disregarded for the time being.

Two scum groups, each with 3 scum. That means each group has a 1/(7 - 3) chance of hitting our cop. So we take 2 * (1/4). That's a 50% chance that we lose our cop during the night. However, this doesn't factor in the fact that one scum group is very likely going to lose one of their members to a lynch, nor does it factor in the possibility of the doctor protecting the cop. So the odds are a bit in our favor. At this point, I'd say this is our best method of potentially knocking one of the scum groups out.

For now:

Vote : Sage

I did not like how he jumped on the Squirrels wagon. He was far too defensive for that opportunistic of a vote.

[Kison]

Yup, that is definitely more suspicious than Sage's opportunistic voting.

Unvote

Vote : Nocmen

I find it hard to believe you didn't pay attention to the fact that everything I suggested is approximated.

[Kison]

As far as I know, the number of each scum is still unknown (most likely 2, but could be 3 if the mod wanted to screw us over), and Kison is constantly basing his accusations on the pair of 3 scum.

Did you not bother reading my post? I said that

we cannot determine how many scum there are based on the actions of the past few days

. I said that

two

or

three

scum per GROUP is a reasonable number. Why? Because if it were any MORE, then there would be no town left. Any FEWER and they would no longer be "groups" and unfairly having 2 scum VS 10 townies, which is an absurd setup.

Now, why did I choose to base my estimations with the number three instead of two? Because it is better to go with the worst case scenario. That is WITHOUT any certainty that I am correct, however I would wager that one of the two is correct.

His arguments first refer to how it will be spades v town, which would mean that he is not a part of the clubs,

WRONG. My wording indicates that the town is fighting two separate battles. One with Spades scum, and one with Clubs scum. I said that the fight with Spades is looking grim, while there is better hope for the fight against the Clubs.

and then wants to keep the clubs cop a secret, which most likely means that he is preparing for what looks as the inevitable spades v. clubs mafia fight for the end, proving that he wants the clubs to worry about hitting the clubs doc over the spades mafia.

This is such a stupid argument that it amazes me that you even suggested it. If I was a Spades mafia and wanted the Clubs to worry about hitting the doc over my own scum group, then why the hell did I tell no-one to claim? Bingo! Better chance of hitting SCUM with their night kills as long as no-one knows who is who. That is without a doubt in the town's benefit.

I am much happier with my vote, now.

[Kison]

Each group has a 3/4 chance of a hit.

Not that I'm saying it's wrong, but how do you figure this?

Yet you then say that the spades have a better chance of hitting scum with their night kills.

What are you going on about? I never said this. I said Spades have the advantage now because all anti-Spades town members are dead.

Spades mafia is Kison, Great Sir Utnut, and Sage. Clubs is Elias, SPAG, and VideoGuy.

Im the clubs cop. You didnt want me to claim, but guess what, I did.

Hahah. He's scum.

Just think about it for a moment. If you're the Clubs cop, then you would be unable to decipher who the Spades mafia members are. Secondly, there have only been

two

nights and yet you claim to have figured out

six

mafia members. Third of all, the fact that you are claiming there are six mafia members means that your whole argument against me using the 3 VS 3 scenario was BS to begin with. Now we know there are two groups of three scum because scum just told us . Thanks.

Daykill : Nocmen

[Kison]

No I was using your own numbers and taking a last guess that would help the town in the long run. Lets just say im still happy to be alive right now.

What's with the claim? Who'd you really investigate? What were your results?

[Kison]

My accusations against you are what you likely consider scummy. Honestly, if you're the Clubs cop, you just screwed us completely. But I really find it hard to believe that you're the cop. Anyone, even an innocent townie, could false claim and make those up.

My question is, why do you consider those people who you listed to be affiliated with those scum groups? You didn't even get a guilty result, indicating you have no more clue than I do.

[Kison]

yeah, those groups you listed seem complete BS to me. i definately dont know if im willing to lynch you now, your claim seems believable to me. theres gotta be a clubs cop, and theres been no counterclaim.

No counterclaim, maybe because they realize that doing so would be suicide? Nocmen is very likely a Clubs mafia member baiting a counter claim. That's what he

wants

, and that's why he didn't like my proposals.

i dont like that youre so intent to kill him. if he was lying about his role there would probably have been a counterclaim by now.

I'm intent to get rid of him because he is obviously scum. I can't believe that you don't see it. videoguy hit the nail on the head with the voting patterns. The guy is also reprimanding me for going with a worst case scenario over a best case scenario. Not to mention making things up(see my last response answering quotes of his).

The cop claim is bogus. Not only does his voting not match up in the least bit with his OMG investigation, but the fact that he failed to speak up when OMG was about to get lynched is further evidence that he is lying.

The logical response that I expect out of him is, "if I claimed yesterday then I would have been killed." That is clearly wrong. Either the town would have believed your claim and not killed OMG, in which case the Clubs doc would have protected you, or they would have not believed your claim and lynched him anyways. What would have happened? OMG would come up innocent. Doc protects you.

[Kison]

This is ridiculous. Sage and Kison are voting for a claimed cop. Nobody has counterclaimed. Therefore, we should assume he's telling the truth based on what the setup has revealed. My guess is Sage and Kison are incahoots.

Vote: Kison

I've got my eye on you: Sage

The fact that no-one has counter-claimed is not as hardcore proof as you seem to think it is. As I pointed out before, if Nocmen is Clubs mafia, he could very well have falsely claimed to get the real Clubs cop to claim.

Secondly, put yourself in Nocmen's shoes. With three votes on him, after putting on such a horrible performance trying to start something with me for coming up with some statistical figures, the guy claims. If he's scum, what would he logically want to pick as his claim? Cop, of course. That way the Clubs doc wastes a night protection on him. If he really was the Cop, he'd obviously want to claim his true role. So, again, how is it you figure that his claim gives him the clearance for the day?

Thirdly, I specifically told the Cop and Doc not to claim unless they were close to being lynched. Obviously, Nocmen claimed, and I discussed that in the paragraph above. But what if Nocmen is lying? The real cop could still be hesitant to speak up because of the strong possibility that the 3 VS 3 scenario is correct and his loss during the night would be 1/2 of the remaining townies.

Look at what happened to Nyktorion.

[Kison]

yeah kison, its not proof hes clear, but i think its enough to put him at an uncertain state, and we cant just lynch him based on a little misinterpretation of you post, which as far as i can tell is the only real evidence against him. this continual pressure to lynch is disturbing.

so yeah, I agree with squirrels on his last point, theres no reason to continue to attempt to lynch someone whos claimed cop.
i guess im comfortable with expanding on my own opinions from post 246 and squirrels opinions and placing my

vote: kison

Well, believe it or not, accusations based on the number of "misinterpretations" he so hastily accumulated is a legitimate and serious scum tell, especially in the situation we're in right now. Focusing on his joined date, however, it is possible it's due to inexperience, but I'm not going to disregard what I've seen.

Questions :

1) At this point, with no Spades-blocking roles, do you think that the Spades Mafia would attempt to kill the Clubs cop, especially considering that the Clubs cop would be in their benefit against the Clubs Mafia?

2) If the answer to the first question is no, do you think then that the real Clubs cop should couner-claim Nocmen? The reason I ask is that we still have the Clubs doc, and if the Spades Mafia are not interested in killing the Clubs cop, then there's no reason that the cop should not counter claim in this situation.

I will

Unvote

until those questions are answered.

However, to me, it's a gamble, but it's the best way to figure this out.

Lastly, to you specifically, Elias. Getting rid of a falsely claimed cop is something I consider a priority, because it'd screw with us in multiple ways : False information, wasted doc protection, and a lynch-free scum.

[Kison]

but you have absolutely no reason to believe that its a false claim. the "he feels kinda not coppy" is not a good reason.

But do we have reason to believe it's a true claim? I will agree that the potential loss over it being a true claim is much worse than the potential loss of it being a false claim. However, that is why I am asking those two questions. What is your response?

[Kison]

Unvote

Good point, though. Where is Nocmen? Even before the crash, I don't recall him posting very much.

[Kison]

Well, I don't recall, then. What I recall is arguing with Elias about his miscounting of votes, and figuring out that the MOD made an error with the vote count at the top of the last page.

[Kison]

Well, I had wanted to hear more, myself. I was thinking an alternative to Nocmen was feasible, however, given the lack of participation I seem to see myself standing on similar grounds as you.

[Kison]

Despite my heavy suspicion of Nocmen, Great Sir Utnut just took it to a whole new level(see below). If we decide to make him the play for today, I would be willing to allow Nocmen one more day to get a guilty investigation. I don't see a strong enough reason to go for anyone else over Nocmen, however.

He may be scum as long as we wait, but the longer we wait, the more damage he'll do. Killing him will be better than replacing him, since then we don't have to worry about an inactive replacement. And why not lynch him.

Nocmen had made a post

five

above his. When Elias and I had said something about his activity, it was about

before

the crash, not after. So, as sad as it is that I am defending Nocmen, this is a baseless reason to rush a lynch on him.

I didn't mean kill him quickly

today

. I meant don't let him survive the night.

You don't think we should kill him today, but not let him survive the night. That implies that you think

we

as a

group(?)

should

kill

him tonight. You do realize that only SCUM can kill during the night, don't you?

Oh Lord...

[Kison]

And what of you trying to lynch him for inactivity when he wasn't inactive?

[Kison]

Elias is correct. There's a no-lynch if the day ends by deadline without a majority.

Vote Count As of post 301

Nocmen (2) - Sage, Utnut
Kison (2) - Nocmen, Squirrels
Utnut (1) - Elias
Not voting (3) - The rest of you

Five to lynch!

[Kison]

Finally! Welcome.

[Kison]

A GSU vote may very well come from me based on the things I pointed out earlier. I would also like to hear from Squirrels, but I'm not banking on it.

[Kison]

Sage, you are assuming that there are 3 scum per group. That's the problem with your theory. While it may very well be the case, I'm not wanting to bank on

that

to legitimate a Nocmen lynch. I can see other reasons, which I stated previously, why I'd be in favor for it, but in all honesty, it

can

wait a day.

If requiring an alternative, I think I pointed out some of the scummy things Great Sir Utnut has said. Go and take a look.

[Kison]

Keyword : Assuming

[Kison]

Kison: Why do you keep pushing against people who belive this may be 3 scum most likely, when iirc you were the one who first believed there were 3 scum on each side?

Key phrase : Most likely

There's a huge difference between using one thing as a guideline and using it to risk the entire game. Sage is doing the latter, while I did the former. Yes, I , too, believe there are likely 2 groups of 3, but I don't

know

that, and I'm not going to base my vote on that.

To me, the way you keep going against me before (and now sage) who say that there is most likely three scum per group, seems as if you are either:

No, I went after you because of how you presented your "knowledge" of who was who. You made it sound like you were dead certain, although you say you were simply speculating. Again, a big difference.

[Kison]

Those are actually pretty good points. Its true he wasnt risking the game on it. But I dont think that you should be attacking people for taking your own guesses a step further.

I'm not attacking him. I'm telling him how it's not a good idea.

[Kison]

Vote : GSU

Liar.

[Kison]

I should say good work to Sage for fooling us. We were banking on Videoguy being the doc judging by your desire to get rid of Nocmen. I decided to hammer GSU because, honestly, I was thinking Nocmen might well have been town, but more importantly because I didn't want to risk not lynching either of them. Luckily, GSU came up cop, because his investigations pretty much nailed the rest of the game in the coffin.

One of the more fun games I've played.

[Kison]

Clubs did pretty good considering OMG/Coke screwed them over completely. Loved the setup, & would play again.