Mini 403: 101 MPH Mafia - Game Over

[pablito]

vote: pablito

HAMMAH!

[pablito]

hrmph. He beat me. Just don't let Mr Bojangles fly off to the moon. Well at least I have my Zywiec.

[pablito]

I rolled a one-sided die.

[pablito]

Well in that case,

unvote: pablito

[pablito]

Heh, I wonder if anyone will be able to read the thread, come into the game and

not

mention whether they want to vote for me or not.

[pablito]

everyone on! It'll be fun!

[pablito]

Okay, so now that the urgency of the game has been instilled into my head, I'm going to post an analysis on all the players that have posted so far. We can't bother with random votes and we can't just spread out the field right now. We have to comment with passion and emphasis.

So I'll go by through every post (yes, already!) and comment on it. If all else fails, at least we'll have some discussion to start with. I will make reaching statements and pull excessive interpretation out of what exists.

Patrick's vote on me was expected. He told me he was going to.

Now my vote on myself was intentionally eyebrow-raising. I'm going to pull together the reactions now. You'll see that it might be more interesting than if we just all random-voted into oblivion.

scotmany12's next post seems justified. He of course bothered to comment, but it was just a little and it looked genuine. Then again, this is a good comment to make only to then fall back into the background.

Patrick lied about it being a random vote, but I don't think we can pull too much out of his comment.

I unvote. Interestingly, no one's bothered to pick that up. What matters to people on their first read is that there's a wagon on me, and they want to join. Boo.

Jack then votes me. Seems reasonable.

omg has something I find awkward.

why am i so tempted to vote pablito....

He says something while not taking action or talking about anything else. omg could be easily setting up a situation where he will vote me later on if he wants to. He's setting up suspicion on me, or at least an easy vote on me. But he does nothing else about it nor comments on anything else. By this point in the game, there's gotta be more to comment on than just voting me. Choosing not to comment on anything else is too convenient. omg could have done more than just that.

Jack talks about self-hammering. Good comment so far.

Patrick puts us back into shape. Very good post. He's super-town with me.

Jack's next vote is questionable. He picks an easy target. But his subsequent unvote seems legitimate.

Adele's post is interesting. She tries to move away the "vote pablito" argument and then she moves into evening out the field. However, that's nothing more than really "random voting". Because in order to even out the field, we'd have to systematically place votes on people. And so far, who she voted for was nothing more than an arbitrary/random vote. I think we have to vote for people for some reason other than arbitrariness.

I think omg's subsequent vote is better, but I wish Adele had OMGUS voted. This is what we gotta do to even out the field, if we even bother to keep with that strategy. I don't see why Adele had to bother keep her vote on Shamrock unless it was a vote to encourage posting.

I really don't like Adele's plan to the verbose game. For one, verbose had longer deadlines plus had a separate stage for nominations. We can't afford that opportunity right now. We have to attack even if it means we're acting on gut. We don't have the time to discuss, especially when not everyone is extremely active on this roster. For a 101 mph game, I would've hoped that everyone would've checked within 12 hrs of the thread opening. We only had about 5 people. And in order to react to 4-day deadlines or even lesser, we need to be checking into this game repetitively and make significant posts, not one-liners.

In response to Adele's verbose suggestion, I think that's something that we could do

later

but in D1, we have nothing to go on. Later in the game, we'll naturally have three nominees, but that's just because we'll know who our main suspects are. Right now, we have very very little.

vote: Adele

for suggesting a plan that takes too much time.

If the scum string someone up last second very quickly, then they're going to do it and it sucks, but it's information we can read later. And if the cop is going to wait a long time before claiming, it's his fault for not claiming earlier. I think if a power role is climbing in suspicion and is getting votes, they have to know that claiming earlier is more beneficial than claiming later (if they're are going to claim at all, that is) because we don't know the deadline ever. We can guess that one may happen any minute, but in reality, we shouldn't outguess the mod. We should expect that every moment is the possible deadline.

Kenji, if you can't participate in a super-super-super-fast game, it's going to hurt us. Please let us know now if this is something you can't do.

Ectomancer's here! Eh, stupid vote, but at least he's voting and not jumping in with a one-liner and then leaving.

Riverwind23 gets a

FOS

as well (since I'm already voting) because voting me is already passe, and it smells more like an opportunist vote. Riverwind has decided to not comment on anything else, but talks about voting me only. Again, I'm talking about how people are choosing to comment on voting me when there's already something else to talk about.

And finally Jack's last post, I like his reaction to the vote. Not good with him agreeing with Adele. Maybe I'm just being realistic, but it's very tough to organize votes like this. And it's not very organic. Plus in a game like this, moods and suspicions will change quickly. While idealistically, it will help us out a lot so that scum may have to show their hand slightly before "impending lynch time", I'm pessimistic in its execution. Put me in the "not enthused, but willing to participate with that plan" pile.

And Hemisphere Dancer, Yamahako and Shamrock are lurking scum :p

[pablito]

Of interest, I could move my vote to Jack and it would give us a three-way tie, which was one of the goals of the "nomination" plan right?

Yeah, I'm not going to do it, but just wanted to note that I could if I want to.

[pablito]

You never know, SV might be watching the game and ready to replace in.

You know, since, Yamahako hasn't arrived yet.

And to continue with my analyze every single post run...I'll take scotmany's last post. Interesting that scotmany said "I'm not sure on who to vote yet." While it's important to make the vote count - it's not compulsory to vote. I'll chalk it up to being new, but just an interesting possible tell. But I do like scotmany's choice to not vote during that post. That means it's likely towniness coming through.

[pablito]

Holy talking tea leaves! I'm not a female and I don't live in Singapore. So I don't get the reference.

Anyway. Well at least Adele is being consistent with her plan of keeping people tied. As if that's going to make me remove my vote until I find a better home for my vote. Because that would really grey the cutting board too much.

Yay! I'm glad that we made it out of the random voting stage very early on.

[pablito]

mild FOS: Jack. i dont see how anyone could have any read on me whatsoever given

what ive posted so far

. the only people that know im pro-town rite now are scum.

please explain how that joke was 'just how i play'?

also unvote, vote riverwind

only one post so far,

seems like he is trying to fly utr. lurking is either scummy or useless in this game.

(note: i could easily vote for a few players day 1 here, but this is just my best read rite now)

"Judge not lest ye be judged?" said the holy talking tea leaves.

FOS: omg

I still have yet to see a pro-town post from omg.

I also don't like omg's latest assessment of things. Interesting how both omg and Adele have said that they'd last-minute vote someone else rather than keeping a tie. When Adele said/did it, it felt like it was what she truly believed because of the whole plan she suggested (whether she's scum or town), but when omg says it, I feel that it's coming from a selfish standpoint. And sometimes being selfish is a scum-tell. Right now omg and Adele are my top 2.

[pablito]

OMG, I posted the sequence in my last post because in it you attack Jack for trying to make a pro-town read on you because only scum would say you're pro-town and you thought Jack was trying to put a read on your one or two posts. Then in your next post you try to make a read on Riverwind off of his one post. That's doing exactly what you thought Jack was doing (which he wasn't). So I called you a hypocrite for it.

Then I point out that the situation you explained was selfish at most (there's an obvious assumption I'm making here which I do not want to say), and you say that I'm making the worst FOS ever. I don't even know which parts of it you find proposterous, you just make a general statement. I can just say then that you made the worst retaliatory FOS ever and you get a

HOS

for that. To me though, it just seems more like your style and I don't see the opportunism in what you're doing.

Now, something else:

Why did you want to arbitrarily create a front runner? That has the same problems as Adele's plan. Scum can vote for someone who's tied with their partner with part of the justification being "we need a front runner".

They call that "electability". Ectomancer saw Adele's "electability" and wanted to put her into the final running. I call Ectomancer as being "opportunistic". Ectomancer's in my shortlist now.

As for any planning - I think things should just happen naturally. I agree that planning

could

help the town, but I think that even if we do this, the mafia will be able to figure a way around this or would just rather let his partner get lynched instead out of fear of being caught. Either pessimistic scenario is going to make things worse than if we just let votes be votes. 100 mph role-setup was balanced toward the town, and unless the mod changed things significantly, I would have to say that we're probably in a decent situation, so I see no need to balance the game back toward the town. Then again, I haven't read 100 mph in its entirety, so I don't know how things could/should go.

[pablito]

unvote, vote: Ectomancer

I thought Jack was previously voting Adele, so I hardly see how he could be a protector for Adele.

[pablito]

Discuss, consensus, and vote would be the most logical course of action - we should use FOS to show who we would be willing to vote for (like say a list of suspicion) and get rid of the person highest on our lists. Since this game moves fast - if we have enough people giving analysis and people clearly stating their suspicions then we have something to hold people too.

When I first read this idea, I thought "genial!" and then I realized that it would be too easy for mafia to screw around with us and abuse the system. Again, while I think some of these systems could benefit town, they are more likely to benefit a non-deadlined town than a deadlined-one. Any system where we have to wait for consensus is going to cripple us. Deadline can strike and while we want fairness and hopefulness and all that crap, fact is whoever has the most votes at any one time can be lynched. What we have to do is make sure that if you make someone the new vote leader that you are completely sure that you want that person to be lynched. Otherwise just chalk one up for the sphinx because it's not going to help us win the game.

[pablito]

In fact, maybe if your latest vote makes someone the new top vote-getter, then you should announce it when you make your vote? Would it help people if we keep running vote counts as well?

I like the idea of having a system, but the execution of the system is going to be handicapping us not helping us. And it makes me wonder if mafia have been the ones focusing on process rather than individuals in this game or if it's truly just the town that's doing the suggesting.

[pablito]

Cross off Patrick's vote for Shamrock and I think it would be right.

Also, I'm not so sure that people are getting the urgency of the game. As far as I understand, it's not just that the lynch can come at any time...it's also that discussion at that point will cease. If we're on a good streak and we're discussing something important, it can be cut at any moment. So you have to be sure that every post could be your last...because you never know if you won't be back next day.

[pablito]

Hemisphere Dancer, I think part of the reason no one was looking at you is because you:
a) chose not to do something opportunistic
b) admitted you were loopy while you did something questionable
c) your post felt kinda genuine.

And when riverwind posted there wasn't much to see and he admitted he was voting for no reason, especially when there was an actual reason for voting for me. He was holding back and people voted so that they could provoke riverwind into saying more.

At least that's what I choosing to believe.

But, hm, interesting that HD pointed out that no one was looking her way. Probably pro-townish.

[pablito]

Good question, Jack. I applaud you.

Also Adele counters the very easy argument that omg put up. I'm actually preferring an Adele vote more. May do so later.

[pablito]

Just want to point out that I indicate I was willing to move to Adele and then Jack actually

does

it and then later omg puts the lynching vote on Adele.

I'm not going to vote Adele at the moment. I do think she's still scummiest, but still not enough to warrant to put her at a two-vote differential. I'd at least like her to respond, because her last post was admitting it was short.

If omg wants to vote trade at the moment, I'd be willing. He doesn't want ecto to be the top vote getter, so I'd be willing to put Adele at three votes, and then omg can move his vote to riverwind. Or I could vote riverwind as proxy or something.

Or I should actually just vote Adele if I want.

Or I could just wait as I said I would. I think I'll do that.

[pablito]

Pablito re post 99:
Nice scaremongering... "Quick people, make rushed descisions! It's your only hope!"

Yes I am. And Yes I stand by that post and whatever interpretation you choose to put on it. The game created that scare, I'm just pointing it out in case people don't realize it yet. Call it exaggerating the mechanics of the game if you will, but it is something. I think that we won't realize how important it is until the first deadline falls.

I do agree with Kenji's assessment of patrick in 84 though. I mean, to borrow omg's earlier argument against Jack, I just don't get how Patrick could defend me so early at that point. I mean, yeah, Patrick and I have a history, but it was a bit premature to pull out the card that Patrick did. It's like he went off chasing the boyband along with the redheads. Nonetheless, Patrick does look very pro-town aside from that. But 84 did perk my ears when I initially saw it.

I agree with omg's assessment on scotmany. I did think it was a pro-town tell on him.

However, I cannot agree with omg's vote to Adele. It just seems that omg is doing a lot of work to ensure that he protects someone whose 'recent post just rings true". At the point when omg switched votes to riverwind to Adele, there was a three way tie between Adele, Ecto and riverwind. If I'm right, then if the deadline were to fall at that point, then the mod would randomly choose betwen the three. There would've been only a 1/3 chance of Ecto being chosen. Furthermore, there would been a 1/3 chance of omg getting his #1 suspect lynched and a 1/3 chance of his #3 suspect lynched. I did not see the benefit of moving the vote. But maybe I'm biased because I still don't see what you guys are seeing in Ecto's post. Therefore

FOS: omg

for that stuff. Plus I don't know if I can just chalk up omg's behavior up to difference of personality and playstyle anymore. That survivor stuff is really alarming. And while it probably is personality, it could be a great mask for future behavior if he really is scum. I would definitely want to look at omg later if he's been vote-switching to protect a partner of his.

I mean, it was a nice post and all, but it's not really addressing any of my or anybody's for that matter argument against him. It was more of a "kick his toes in the dirt, woe is me, take pity on me" type of message. I don't see Ecto directly addressing the inconsistencies that Jack put out. Maybe you guys are reading something else, and I'm not. Maybe I'm alone in that, but I still doubt Ecto. I think Adele's probably scummier at the moment, but I doubt Ecto.

[pablito]

Language Patrick. I just said that you appear very pro-town. It just so happens that I do think you're pro-town, but you haven't made a scummy argument yet. So that's where that assessment of you comes from.

Then in 84

So if pablito does something that appears pro town, and is generally considered pro town, then why can't he just be pro town?

I don't get where you pulled out the generally considered pro-town part and why you put "appears pro town" into "being pro town". I always consider the two separate but not mutually exclusive descriptors. I mean isn't the "too townie" argument separating the two? That a person can be actually scum scum scum and dirt of the earth but appears to be extremely pro-town? Wasn't that Stoofer in Nightless in a way (I didn't read the game but heard of the record).

But I do agree that Kenji voted me for a crap reason and that your defense was reasonable. I guess I mis-stated myself earlier. I didn't emphasize as much "level of certainty" above. It's not that you defended me, but the extent and language you used that was alarming.

[pablito]

unvote, vote: Adele

the vote trading is because I didn't want to put Adele at 4 (while her next competitor was only at 2), but omg was only voting Adele to protect Ectomancer. I'll explain more in my next post as well.

[pablito]

1st - and why would i want someone i suspect of being pro-town to be lynched? even if only a 3rd?

2nd - its wrong anyway. unless the day ends at that precise moment, any of the other players, in particular the other 2 with 2 votes on them can just easily switch over to ecto and bang ecto is in the lead. i dont think you thought this through at all....

just go read bogre mafia, where i was vanilla villager. its how i am. i will always care more about my own survival than anything else in the game because knowing that i am villager is the only FACT i can ever be 100% on. if you disagree with that its not really my problem but go read my other games and you will see that at least it is true.

given jacks recent support post for riverwind, im willing to trade... just on the offchance that it leads to riverwind dying today.

1 - So before Ectomancer was just someone whose "recent post just rings true" and now you heavily suspect him of being pro-town? That's why I didn't get it. And then you vote for Adele to help protect Ectomancer?

2 - true, but i was aware of that possibility. If you hadn't noticed, I still find Ecto to be suspicious, I just find Adele to be the most suspicious right now and she needs more pressure than Ecto does. So I'd actually be pleased if Ecto gets lynched. Also, we never know when the day ends. We gotta take every moment like the last.

3 - No I won't read that game. I'll take your word that you put your own survival over the game's survival. I'll make sure to note that if you ever get lots of votes.

4 - We traded votes, it's a done deal. I wanted my vote on Adele and you wanted yours on riverwind. All good. Actually, riverwind's OMGUS is kinda suspicious, but I still don't see what the original case was on him.

[pablito]

scotmany and/or riverwind, do you have any read on Adele and why she would post a plan like she originally did? And what benefits could any system have for the town?

[pablito]

and how do you feel about Adele?

[pablito]

justifiable. thanks for the responses.

[pablito]

I'm satisfied with that post,

unvote, vote: Ectomancer

[pablito]

"Testing, testing, testes...1...2....3...test...test...SAT....is this microphone on?

unvote, vote: omg_im_innocent_wtf

"

[pablito]

unvote

[pablito]

I didn't know.

And I was unsure of who to vote. Part of my argument against Ecto was that he was being protected, so I have to reread to see if my suspicions against Ecto still hold up. I'm not sure that Adele's the best choice and she had brought up some good points last time. Haven't really suspected anyone else. Gotta re-read.

vote: riverwind

solely so that omg is no longer in the lead.

[pablito]

a) BECAUSE I MADE SO INSANELY OBVIOUS

b) he rolefished in post 70,

Then I point out that the situation you explained was selfish at most (there's an obvious assumption I'm making here which I do not want to say)

i really didnt know what to make of that but i told him he was right in post 71 by going nuts at him for bringing it up.... and chose to work with him from then on.... i still cant believe he voted for me =/

so sad

I totally forgot that I did that. The assumption was "scum or insane power role" and I mainly thought omg was scum. But I just wasn't following. My bad.

[pablito]

unvote

now that omg is out of danger range for now.

[pablito]

sorry, omg, gonna go back to my roots

unvote, vote: Ectomancer

[pablito]

Agree with Jack. But disagree with "last resort". This is 101 mph. There is no last resort, because we don't know when "last" can occur.

[pablito]

Agreed, Yama is in dire need to tell us "not doc" or "doc". Although with all the votes that are piled on, if we find out he's the real doc, you guys better be ready to mass unvote.

[pablito]

Oh, actually there's only one vote needed to switch from Yama to Ecto - and I'm on Ectomancer, so all good.

So yeah, I misread the vote count because I missed Adele's vote.

[pablito]

unvote, vote Pablito

Your jumping around so much, plus the vote swapping and behavior I listed in my last post is what is motivating this vote.

Sure, I've never done the vote-swapping thing, but I tend to hop around. I'll take that as OMGUS. Typical reaction.

[pablito]

What the hell, what's with all this selfishness. I don't get it.

Nonetheless, I still like my vote. Ecto just seems to be very opportunistic, doesn't seem to be consistent and he's not really reacting well to being the top vote getter.

[pablito]

Just because he said townie, doesn't necessarily mean it's vanilla townie. If he wants to claim, he will, I don't see any reason to.

[pablito]

spaz? No, I'm not a spaz. I like to try to get under people's skin sometimes, because it's just me. I think it's working. I still think you are not reacting well to pressure on you. I didn't say you were reacting horribly. And I will contend you've got a point with omg reacting piss-poor after the redheads chased the boyband, but I just simply don't think you're reacting in a pro-town fashion to the pressure on you. Especially with the OMGUS vote. If you had just ignored me and gone to someone else,

then

I might have bothered to think that you might be pro-town, but right now I can't be arsed to go that way. I'm glad that I could humour you a bit.

Also,

mods

, Yamahako has been misspelled in every vote count.

[pablito]

Adele, I called it. SV was always in the game.

Welcome, SV.

I'm not exactly sure if I believe Yamahako's claim, I mean it is something that scum could claim. Townie with information about existence of another role...I think scum could take a stab at what power roles might exist. I don't think that the claim is putting me at ease. It's not exactly something I would believe would be in 101 mph either. However, I believe that Yama's behavior so far has not been too scummy.

[pablito]

putting pressure on riverwind and not entirely up on the idea of Kenji being top vote- getter yet,

unvote, riverwind

[pablito]

my vote is also incorrect.

[pablito]

I'm not sure how to read riverwind's comments now. To me it kinda feels like scum who gave up because he knows that deadline is coming and there's no way to get another lynch suspect. At the same time, it could easily be frustrated townsperson. But really, unless everyone wants to mass-jump to Ectomancer, I'm not seeing any other lynch I could support.

[pablito]

I think I'm fine with how the votes are laid out. Sorry I haven't had much extra to add to discussion lately.

[pablito]

ba dum dum

vote: Ectomancer

[pablito]

FOS: Jack

for being the first to state the obvious.

[pablito]

hmmm....

unFOS

because I'm actually not sure what to think right now. Sorry for the triple post. Just that my thoughts are moving so fast. How fast? 101 mph!!!!

*groans*

[pablito]

I have found Ecto to have acted opportunistically and it's more of a gut feeling actually. Just the way he discusses things.

[pablito]

Yikes.

Jack, did you not think you'd get counter-claimed?

I suppose you figured that you had to gambit early because I was onto your mafia partner. When I'm onto you guys 1-2, you had to take that risk.

ba dum dum vote: Ectomancer

FOS: Jack for being the first to state the obvious.

And then Jack challenges my vote on Ectomancer and of course I state "gut". I didn't want to just come out and say, hey I'm the cop and I found scum. I wanted to test out the waters and see if people would finally jump onto the Ectomancer wagon first, so I didn't have to claim right away. And Kenji jumped at first, so I saw no need to claim. Then I come back and woah, lots of claims and now I'm being forced to claim. So yeah, fun times.

There was a strong interest in why Jack was trying to ask more about my "suspicion" on Ectomancer. Furthermore, it's pretty obvious that if I were cop, I was going to investigate Ectomancer. There is no evidence that Jack was going to investigate me. However, I think Jack is pretty good that he was able to figure out that I was cop based on how I was talking about his mafia partner.

Oh if it weren't obvious yet, I'm counter-claiming Jack. I'm the real cop. If Jack were the real cop, wouldn't he have voted me

BEFORE

he came out and claimed?

[pablito]

In case anyone is still doubting me, I set up my breadcrumb earlier.

[url = 504192]Here on page 5.[/url]

C

ross

o

ff

P

atrick's vote for Shamrock and I think it would be right.

Also, I'm not so sure that people are getting the urgency of the game. As far as I understand, it's not just that the lynch can come at any time...it's also that discussion at that point will cease. If we're on a good streak and we're discussing something important, it can be cut at any moment.

So you have to be sure that every post could be your last...because you never know if you won't be back next day.

Besides the first three letters being C. O. P. I clearly talk about why people should claim earlier than later...as shown in the underlined part. I was clearly trying to show you why I was posting so much and trying to place my suspicions out there. You know, in case I died and didn't get to claim, at least you might be able to pick up clues about who I already investigated. Hence my infallible vote on Ectomancer today.

[pablito]

oops, that was url thing was supposed to be a link to the original post here

[pablito]

For now, just in case the deadline strikes,

unvote, vote: Jack

[pablito]

Sorry miseed it earlier. Yes I am certain of my sanity.

[pablito]

unvote, vote: pablito

The plan works, at least I got a positive investigation out of the game.

But seriously, it should still be obvious I'm telling the truth.

Maybe if I get an unanimous vote, we could go to night early.

[pablito]

Well when I'm lynched and found out to be the real cop, then you guys lynch Ecto and Jack. So really, a Jack or Ecto lynch would be optimal, but if I have to be lynched to prove my alignment, then so be it. So it's not like you need me around for another investigation anyway. Plus, I think Yamahako's telling the truth about being the deputy, so we're not losing an investigation provided there's no scum roleblocker out there.

[pablito]

Says you, who has a vote on me.

[pablito]

Huge mistake in not going for omg the first night. I said that if we keep him alive, we have to be willing to keep him alive until end game because that's when the doctor unkilled doubt would start. We were too confident that omg could get lynched earlier than later.

Of course, I was going for a Yamahako (or HD) kill and he was protected anyway...

The game was mainly Jack vs. scum if you look at it. Jack won the game, hands down. Although if you look back at D1, scum was bussing each other hard (my votes except for omg were only on scum). If it weren't for that, it could've been a much much easier game for town. I do wish Adele had distanced even harder during D2 though.

I'm not sure that cop + doc + deputy + nurse is necessarily unbalanced, but there was a breaking strategy. Once cop and deputy were out there, there was no way possible for scum to win. I think the nurse was the thing that put game into town favor. If the nurse was substituted for a blocker and/or any other role, there would've been a fighting chance.

The timelines actually helped the town more than scum this time because town was smart enough to claim earlier than later. Had omg or scotmany been lynched instead of having to be NKed, scum could've also had a chance.