Firefly Mafia - Voyage over

[Fuldu]

vote: Yosarian2

[Fuldu]

I've seen both the show and the movie, but it isn't clear to me what the point of this little distraction is.

[Fuldu]

Before we go much farther, could everyone state whether they are familiar with the TV show, the movie, both, or neither? As for me, I’ve seen the episodes but not the movie.

Wasn't directed at you, armlx.

[Fuldu]

Hmmm...well, it can be useful to figure out what we've lost. Anyone want to guess what role Shepard Book might have had?

With the Nanook bandwagon, it seems a little wierd how fast it was moving, but Nanook's total lack of response or surprise to the fact that he has 6 votes on him also seems really strange. If you log on, and find out that you suddenly have 6 votes on you, why would you not even mention it?

Between trying to start up role speculation and indiscriminate finger-pointing, both at Nanook and at those on his bandwagon, all without a placed vote, I think Yosarian2 deserves more attention than we're giving him. At any rate, my vote won't be moving any time soon.

[Fuldu]

There is nothing wrong with speculating about which role are already dead.

I disagree, for three reasons. a) since we're never going to know whether or not we're right about a speculation regarding a dead player (barring a player with some particular knowledge, a co-mason, for example), there's really not much value to any suggestions that we throw out. Anybody who makes decisions based on the theory that we

might

now be short a doctor, or a cop, or a vig, is probably stretching pretty hard to reach a conclusion. If you

know

that the town has lost a cop, then it's useful to take that into consideration in planning a strategy. Otherwise, you're creating complications that aren't actually going to serve any valuable purpose.

b) Players are less likely to suggest their own role as a likely role for the dead player, especially roles that aren't likely to be duplicated in the game. So when somebody suggests that Shepherd Book might have been a doctor, scum can shift that player down their list of likely candidates for being the doctor and target somebody else. And this sort of reasoning is almost always more useful to scum than to town.

c) Speculation of one sort (in this case on the dead roles) very frequently shifts into speculation of every sort (say about what roles might be in the game which, as you've noted, is dangerous). For example, when one player suggests that Shepherd Book might have been the doctor, the natural response would be to say that Simon Tam seems a more probable figure to be the doctor. And right there we've moved from speculation you consider less questionable to speculation you consider more questionable.

As for your comments on the notion that speculation = scum tell, I don't totally disagree and I try to consider speculation on a case-by-case basis. However, the important point in what you say is regarding collecting that information "over the course of the game." On day one, very little communal information exists to aid town in producing that speculation. So, any individual player's speculation is going to be far more colored, percentage-wise, by the information that only they have access to (their role and their night one choice/actions, where applicable). Because of that, speculation on day one is far less likely to produce pro-town results and far more likely to aid scum in identifying power players.

So I tend to view day one speculation as a more likely indicator of scumminess than later speculation would be. That was enough for me to place an early vote on you which, with only one other player on the bandwagon and no patently scummy alternatives, I've seen no obvious reason to move up to this point. That coupled with a sketchy post regarding Nanook was enough for me to make my argument publicly and suggest that other people vote for you, as well.

[Fuldu]

I think making comments that are suspicious of both an individual and of those on a bandwagon for that individual is a common scum tactic of playing the field, especially when no vote is placed. That's what I mean about the comment being sketchy. It isn't reflective of the quality of either half of your suspicions but just of the general way in which you expressed your concerns. I thought that was well explained the first time and so I didn't clarify it when I brought it up again.

[Fuldu]

Looking back through the preceding day, Yosarian2 and Iammars are the offvoters who seems most suspicious to me. I couldn't drum up any support for a Yosarian2 bandwagon yesterday, so

vote: Iammars

.

[Fuldu]

I went through my suspicions of Yosarian2 yesterday and I'd rather not type it all up again, but it's nothing new. My main complaint against Iammars isn't that he didn't provide much content, exactly, but that he put on a random vote and left it all day.

As for the question of whether off-voters should be considered more suspicious, it's occurred to me that while the Blue Sun Operative scum are more likely to be off-voters, Niska and his men are more likely to be on-voters.

[Fuldu]

But Yosarian happened to be *correct*. He was thinking that both Nanook and those on his bandwagon were suspicious. And, well, both Nanook and VisM have been revealed as antitown. So half of your argument against him from yesterday is rebutted.

Not really. With two scum teams, you'd expect to find scum on any successful bandwagon on Day One, though I'll grant that he was right to some degree about Nanook. My complaint isn't about the validity of his arguments, but about the sum total of the argument. If you say that X is behaving scummily

and

that the people voting for X are behaving scummily

and

don't place a vote, it seems more like you're trying to hedge against whatever outcome finally happens than that you're actually trying to further the search for scum in any useful way.

Given the way things turned out, I'd argue that it makes Yosarian seem more likely to be Blue Sun. He didn't want to further Nanook's bandwagon, but at the same time he wanted to make it seem like he agreed with it, which he seems to have convinced EmpTyger of, at least.

I wouldn't mind an explanation from Iammars of how having been roleblocked and waiting for something from the mod caused him to post nine times yesterday

and then

forget about the game.

[Fuldu]

That's a bad argument, EmpTyger. There are more people voting ~ds~ than Iammars, but neither you or I have commented on that bandwagon, either. Does that make us scummy? Besides, there's nothing truly concrete against Iammars or ~ds~. Right now, my suspicions are a little bit more than a feeling, not something I'm going to start railroading people into following.

[Fuldu]

tss: If, by "scum tells", you mean analysing the deaths á la Jeep's wiki article, that's old hat. When exposed, they were interesting, but now they're worse than useless - scum know to avoid them.

Old hat scum usually know how to avoid them. But there are a lot of players on this site who've never played with jeep and in many instances aren't aware of his tells until someone (accurately) accuses them of them. I know I've been in a game in which scum was correctly pinched by jeep's tells in the last month. I think your point is a good one, that they aren't as useful as they used to be, but I think they still have a good deal of value, especially against relatively new players.

[Fuldu]

Unvote, Vote EMpTyger

What BabyJ said.....

Oh, btw, obviously cop investigates one of the masons if they are still alive.

Good Lord, you are the least trusting person imaginable. Cop should under no circumstances investigate either of the masons. This is a no-brainer. It's an enormous waste of an investigation. Both of them are out and whether they're scum or town (and my money's on town), other scum will want them dead as endgame approaches. If this doesn't resolve itself with a confirming death in the next couple of days, then we can worry about it, but I don't think that's likely to happen.

unvote: Iammars; vote: armlx

There's been a lot of movement, but I believe that's four on armlx.

[Fuldu]

I would recommend that we formally go through and give everyone a chance to counterclaim Zoe. I myself would not be willing to vote armlx at this point unless he is counterclaimed.

I am not Zoe.

I'm not Zoe, but I think doing this formally in this instance is unnecessary and going to waste a lot of time. We're not at deadline, and we're unlikely to suddenly push to another lynch without the actual Zoe, if it isn't armlx, having the opportunity to say so.

unvote: armlx

[Fuldu]

So, is nobody worried about the possibility of scum being given safe names to claim?

I'm worried about it, but I'm not going to lynch someone with a safe name at this stage of the game, solely on the basis of that single worry.

[Fuldu]

So, is nobody worried about the possibility of scum being given safe names to claim?

I would imagine that is the case, personally. Isn't that usually the case in theme games?

I don't know about

usually

. In my experience it's actually pretty rare, but there's generally some means of preventing the game from being broken by a mass claim Day One, and more so with experienced mods. Offhand, I'm disinclined to believe that Nanook would have been so unwilling to claim if he'd been given a safe name to use. But that's hardly a reason not to worry about it at all.

[Fuldu]

At deadline, an Iammars lynch is better than a no lynch and his absence here for two weeks isn't well-justified by absence from everywhere, since I know he's had the opportunity to look in on other games.

vote: Iammars

[Fuldu]

So, is the current speculation that there are 2 more members left of each of the two scum groups?

I believe it's considered unclear what to expect of the Blue Sun, given that they'd hired Jubal Early. It might just as easily be two Niska and one Blue Sun remaining. But that assumes that each group started with three (common, but hardly required) and that Early wasn't a recruitable role that they pulled in, well, early.

[Fuldu]

Between this:

Looking over the wiki entries for Firefly (there are entries for each episode!), it seems like possible scum groups are the Blue Hand operatives, the Alliance, and the Reavers.

...and this:

I'll point out that given my very early Nanook vote, I'm not likely to be Blue Sun, and it's somewhat better for us to kill Blue Sun than Niska today (since that would probably cut down the number of night kills).

I'd say there's a decent chance that Thok is a Niska scum. And while he's correct in saying that, given the choice, a Blue Sun lynch is likely to be slightly more advantageous than a Niska lynch, we're still at a stage where it's more important to hit scum than to hit a particular scum.

vote: Thok

[Fuldu]

I propose that, after Thok makes his full claim, tss and then Yosarian claim *only* their character names.

And why are you proposing to have these two claim when you fully expect to lynch Thok anyway? It seems like your only hope is that they'll be counterclaimed, which is not much of a reason, in my view, to get claims from the second and third players on your list. Having them claim seems to me far more likely to have a negative result than a positive one.

[Fuldu]

Honestly, I’m not really sure I see a negative result to be worried about- could you be more specific?

Well, we don't have many of them left unrevealed, but if they claim major character, that's going to make them probable pro-town and a more prominent target than if they don't claim. Also, it isn't clear to me how name claims is possibly going to help us to identify

which

group of scum someone comes from, even if we're able to unequivocally determine that they're lying. So my point wasn't that I think it's bad to try to find Blue Sun to lynch today, just that I think our odds of doing so with your plan aren't elevated in any useful way.

[Fuldu]

I'm content to leave my vote where I am, but I'm unconvinced that waiting for PeaceBringer is going to accomplish much. He posted briefly last Thursday and before that it's been more than a week since he posted with any regularity. I'd prefer not to see this game stall out because we're waiting for him to say something, especially when that something is likely to end up being "yeah, I'm here. vote Thok".

[Fuldu]

Uh... can anyone think of a good reason for PB *not* to be vigged tonight? Because nothing's coming to my mind.

Well, given the fact that there was no reason in the world for him claim and the context of his statement, I assumed he simply meant to say that he's

back

and wasn't paying close attention. I didn't really want to post it, because now all he has to say is "Yeah, that's what I meant," even if it wasn't. But if we're in twilight and discussing vig kills, I figure I should get it out there as a reasonable explanation for his admittedly odd statement.

[Fuldu]

1) His lowflying yesterday is unlike him. Trying to avoid notice?
2) He was roleblocked Night 3. No poisoner struck Night 3. He was most likely NOT roleblocked Night 4. Poisoner struck Night 4,and killed the roleblocker.

I know PB has suggested in another thread that he's sick of the slow pace of games here and won't likely be signing up for any more on this board, which might explain the lowflying. Not much of an excuse, but one people should at least be aware of.

As for your second point, it's an unclear enough argument that it's starting to drift into the gray area between argument and crap logic, so I'm going to give you a chance to clarify before I come down on you. The poisoner didn't strike Nights 1 or 2, either. What about the situation makes you inclined to believe that the lack of a poisoning on Night 3 is more noteworthy than on the preceding two nights?

[Fuldu]

3 cops? seems a bit much, without one being naive. I still like my vote on PB, until I hear a good reason no one was poisoned when he was blocked

Read the death blurb on tss, BJ. Badger appears to have been an investigator of some sort, as well.

As for the PB block, I think you're giving too much credence to the notion that the poisoner might have missed the kill for other reasons the other two nights. The odds of missing three nights in a row are pretty bad, and suggesting that the roleblock of PB last night is the best evidence you have to point to scum seems shady for this late in the game. My best explanation is that the poisoner can only kill even nights and missed Night Two for one of the various possible reasons.

Plus, as I go back and check, I see that

this thread

is the one in which PB mentioned that he wasn't devoting much to time to this forum any more. The combination of a poorly reasoned argument in what, with two or three scum groups remaining, has to be an endgame scenario with a bandwagon against someone who almost certainly isn't going to put much effort into defending himself makes this seem like an attempt by scum to slip something in quickly.

vote: BabyJesus

[Fuldu]

I personally don't give 2 shit if PB is or is not going to defend himself. You think I'm voting him because he's not around? Hardly. While you say there are "pretty bad odds" that the poisoner missed 3 nights in a row, the FACT remains that the poisoner DID NOT KILL 3 nights in a row. If Peacebringer is the poisoner, that only requires 2 nights to be accounted for. Anyone else, and we are forced to account for THREE nights.

And my explanation accounts for two nights and only requires us to account for one. But that one isn't the night that PB was blocked. And I'm not saying that you're arguing that he's scum because he's not around. I'm suggesting that his not being around makes him an easy target for scum. This reflects on Fritzler and Ranger as well as you, but you presented the bad argument, whereas they just jumped on the bandwagon.

Maybe you don't find PB suspicious. I do. And I've played a lot more games with him then you have. Not to mention, he is one of the "unconfirmed" bunch. I want to hear a roleclaim from him at the very least.

Well, let's take a look at that for a second:

Fuldu is innocent.

So:
Iammars vouched for DP.

Tyger vouched for Otaku376 and Fuldu.

I don’t think Ranger is guilty, because of his quick unvote in [361]- I can’t think of any scenario where he’d be guilty and it wouldn’t be better for him to at least stall.

I feel there are a couple reasons to think BabyJ isn’t antitown.

Neither armlx nor Tyger have been counterclaimed.

That leaves Fritzler, Peacebringer, Thok, tss, and Yosarian.

I would simply point out that, due to the way EmpTyger laid out the post, it hides the fact that both BJ and Ranger are unconfirmed, as well.

[Fuldu]

My vote was from hypothesizing that you were responsible for one of the extra kills, since you were roleblocked last night when we had less kills. You are claiming vig, so I was right.

If that's the kind of thing that's passing for a well-reasoned justification, how about this: my vote was from pointing out that your decision to vote on the basis of that, when numerous other explanations exist, was irresponsible. One of those other explanations has turned out to be the case (though, I'll admit, not the one I would have expected), so I was right.

Unless someone can point to a specific reason to shift my vote to Fritzler or Ranger, I would invite other players to join me on a BabyJesus bandwagon. From a sheer numbers standpoint, one of the three (and possibly more) is almost certain to be scum, but I like BJ better than the other two.

[Fuldu]

Yea. I didn't find it that weak of a reason, though, I mean he was right that PB was responsible for one of the additional kills last night. I think he covereed the most likely scenario, even if there were other options.

But a) the fact that he didn't kill Night Three doesn't support that argument if you're talking about a vig who may not have even attempted a kill Night Three, and b) if your argument is equally supportive of the notion that someone is a vig as that they're scum, that's an irresponsible reason to push a bandwagon this late in the game.

[Fuldu]

So do i need to go back and read day 1 for all of the time i was incapacitated or w/e happened to me?

Ai, I'd forgotten entirely about that. A quick check, combined with the fact that it hasn't happened again, suggests that this was probably Jubal Early and that we don't need to worry about it any more, but we should keep the possibility in mind that this could happen again.

[Fuldu]

I'm Bester, vanilla townie.

[Fuldu]

Investigative results on people thus far:

BabyJesus - none
Dragon Phoenix - cleared by Iammars, RBed Night 4, per Fritzler
Fritzler - none
Fuldu - cleared by EmpTyger
Otaku II - cleared by EmpTyger (also, major role not counter-claimed)
PeaceBringer - cleared by Otaku (also, major role not counter-claimed)
RangeroftheNorth - didn't kill Night 3, per Fritzler

Now, personally, I believe both Otaku and PB, especially since they claimed before any of the rest of us. It's possible that a group was given a safe name, but I'm going to put that low on the list of concerns for now.

I don't especially credit Fritzler's claim, particularly given the tenuous conclusion that he draws about Ranger (if we still believe in the possibility of two Niskas remaining, then Ranger could be scum and need not have targeted anyone Night 3), but I still think BJ is the best bet for scum, given the above results.

[Fuldu]

Before we go any further, I'd just like to verify that Peacebringer didn't attempt a kill last night, rather than one not having gone through. Since no one has claimed an immunity, that would mean that anyone he tried to kill is likely scum.

[Fuldu]

Before we go any further, I'd just like to verify that Peacebringer didn't attempt a kill last night, rather than one not having gone through. Since no one has claimed an immunity, that would mean that anyone he tried to kill is likely scum.

I don't know, if someone confirmed, (like ranger) claimed unnk i'd be mad, cuz he could have prevented a kill.

Possibly, although I would have told the truth about it yesterday if it were me. At this point, I think that if such a person exists (big if), then they're likely to be scum. Anyway, it's moot if PB didn't target anyone.

But where was Ranger confirmed? DP, PB and I all have innocent investigations on us, but I don't remember seeing someone mention one for Ranger.

[Fuldu]

Hmm... I don't agree with the conclusion, but it's not totally unreasonable. Who did you track last night? Presumably someone who didn't target Otaku or you'd have said something.

[Fuldu]

PB is the player with the claim I most believe and Fritzler's is the claim I least believe, so I'm willing to go with this lynch.

vote: Fritzler

[Fuldu]

it's up to the rest of you to find those killers and, as Mal once said, "try to kill 'em right back!"

Best advice Mal ever gave me...

Mwah! Love ya!

[Fuldu]

PB:
I’d love to hear how you decided Night 6 between DP and Fuldu, with an innocent result on each, with the game in the balance, and with some decision required. Sorry that your choice turned out so tragically wrong- that’s certainly an ugly position to be in. (Looking at it in retrospect, the only thing I could find was maybe something to do with the fact that Otaku II triggered off of Iammars’s death rather than mine.)

Heck, I'd love to hear how you decided Night 6 between DP or Fuldu, each with an innocent result on them, and Ranger, with nothing. I though for sure I'd be waking up to me and DP (assuming I didn't get killed by the theoretical third Niska). And if the mod gave me the opportunity (I didn't get it with Ranger), I was going to try to get DP to help me lynch the mod.

And, to turn bragging mode up just a little bit more, I would like to point out that at no time during the entire game was a vote placed on me.