Mini 1150 - There Goes the Neighborhood - Game Over


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Post Post #825 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 5:16 pm

Post by Feysal »

Before reading this thread starts to feel like drinking tar, I should answer some questions and post my thoughts so far.

Regfan [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=3062618#p3062618]#787[/url] wrote:
Feysal -
When you state that you replaced into the Twistedspoon slot because your meta on him made you believe he was town did you mean:
1) You chose the Twistedspoon slot over the Doom because you believed Twisted was town.
2) You chose the Twistedspoon slot instead of replacing into an alternate game because you believed Twisted was town?

At the time I decided to replace in, the Doombunny slot had already been taken by you. I did not have my eye on any other game I would've wanted to replace in either, so the choice was really between Twistedspoon and this game or no game at all. What appealed to me was mostly the neighbor mechanic, and the fact that I knew most of the playerlist. If I'd believed the slot was scum it would've turned me away, but I did not think so and here I am.

Regfan [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=3062618#p3062618]#787[/url] wrote:If your answer to the above was 2) then did you:
1) Read through the entire game before deciding to replace in or not
2) ISO Twisted to gain an idea of what alignment he was.

I did an ISO of Twistedspoon, and I also skimmed the vote counts to see what he'd been up to. I noticed Twistedspoon was off the Setael wagon, which was a bit of a warning sign, but I chose to ignore it.

Regfan [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=3062618#p3062618]#787[/url] wrote:Again, if your answer was two, what posts do you believe in particular made you believe your slot was town and what exactly is the 'Twistedspoon town meta'?

Rather than particular posts, it was his overall style. I've been led to believe that as scum Twistedspoon plays more seriously, with longer posts, more and better reasons and arguments. Basically he looks like he's making an effort as scum, while here he was the same careless Twistedspoon I'd seen mislynched in an ongoing game. My opinion of his town style is that he is haphazard, disorganized and reactionary, and probably clueless what was going on half the time. In the ongoing game I mentioned, Twistedspoon said he was playing in 11 concurrent games and that he had been at that rate for a while. At that rate, I can't see how he could possibly stay on top of what was happening in all his games.


I've read about a third, most of it today, and everything posted since I replaced in. ETA on finishing all of it is two or three days.

Some thoughts from that first portion of the game:

Of the three early wagons on kryptinen, Nobody Special and Jedo the Jedi, the ones I would've supported would've been the last two. If kryptinen had really made a mistake about Seacore being second on his own wagon, I'd have thought she'd been flustered when it was pointed out to her. Instead she played it cool, and seemed not to flail at all under pressure. I believed her in that she did it as a way to generate discussion and reactions. By the point I've read to, kryptinen is one of my town reads.

I don't share her read of Seacore though. She said that the way Seacore reacted to her made her think him town, but I had a feeling like Seacore was holding back and avoiding the spotlight. I've seen him in the thick of it in Stars Aligned III for pretty much the entire game, and now he feels different to me. There were some specific posts which struck me as bad, too. In post #99 Seacore said how blatant wagoning made Jedo look town, which feels off, particularly the part about wagon bouncing which Jedo was
not
doing. This felt like scum buddying to a mislynch target for town credit when he flips. Nor did I like post #122, where Seacore recommended following Glass's example instead of his own, while he was also voting kryptinen. What bothered me even more was the absence of arguments. Then we come to Setael's entry into the game, which he begins with criticizing Seacore, but he places his vote on Jedo. This and some later posts between them looked like possible distancing. This is of course hindsight now that I know Setael was scum, but even without it I probably would've suspected Seacore.

My main suspect at this time would've been Nobody Special, with Jedo as second and Seacore third. Now that Jedo/GreyICE is apparently non-counterclaimed vigilante, I don't see much point in getting a read on him, just saying I found his early play suspicious for the reasons repeated by everyone else.

I'm rather glad about not having to guess at Powerrox's alignment, he was too lurky for me to really have an opinion on him. I may not have supported his lynch though, purely because I once supported his mislynch for similar bad play in Consulmaker II.

I haven't yet seen what led to Quaroath being lynched, but I could not have guessed it based on what I've read from him so far. I rather liked some of his posts and found him townish.

As for town reads, so far Doombunny and Nachomamma stand above the rest. I especially liked post #118. At the time it seemed like it would take the tiniest of pushes to get NS lynched, mislynched as the case was, and off goes Doombunny looking at other people like a good townie. This was really a recurring theme, it seemed as though Doombunny had attention to spare for everyone, and he did not stop to push the most obvious mislynch candidate I've seen. As for Nacho, I don't really need to spell out why he comes off as very town, or town-compatible third party as the case may be, do I? I also liked AurorusVox for being the first to even mention fuzzylightning/Setael, though I don't agree on some of his cases.

My reads on Packbat and Glass are pretty much null based on what I've read so far.

Setael [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2963057#p2963057]#163[/url] wrote:
Town

Packbat
Krypt
DoomBunny
Glass

Scum

Jedo
Seacore
NS
TS

Null reads on everyone else.

LlamaFluff mentioned the law of three some posts back, and it is something I agree on. My belief on these reads from Setael is that at most one of the town reads is scum, possibly none of them, and the final scum is one of the null reads. I'd expect one scum among the scum reads. If Jedo/GreyICE is a vigilante he can't be scum with anyone. NS/Wickedestjr has flipped town. That leaves Seacore and Twistedspoon/myself, and I of course know I'm town. I foresee a confrontation with Seacore in my future, and I don't look forward to it. I've seen people say that Seacore's behavior toward Setael during day two would make him town, but since I've yet to read it I won't comment yet, or place a vote.

I believe I've mentioned everyone... except my own slot. Reading Twistedspoon's posts in context, he seems to have been pretty much useless. I'm no longer as surprised as I was that people would suspect my slot because of him.

Regfan [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=3067559#p3067559]#812[/url] wrote:The last thing this game needs is lack of activity. What's everyones thoughts on a potential mass-claim given the fact that apparently two people claimed pre-game?

I can confirm that Twistedspoon claimed to Nacho and AV on night zero. Now that I realized it, there are some things they've said that I probably should've passed on last night, but it is too late now. That'll have to be tomorrow night, if I survive the day.

I have a feeling that we could make do without a mass claim, but seeing which roles have already flipped, there are probably few power roles left that the mass claim would out. If there is a doctor or other protective role, that would be the most notable exception. I'm undecided, I'm not sure if the benefits would outweigh the risks.
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Post Post #826 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 9:26 pm

Post by AurorusVox »

Nachomamma8 wrote:
AV wrote:I believe he also claimed to Nacho, so perhaps Nacho can weigh in on whether he sees it as a towntell or not.

It's definitely a towntell.
There's no scum in this playerlist that would give him that fakeclaim, and he sure as hell wouldn't think it up himself.

Good. I've been ignoring TS' scumminess for most of the game so I'm glad I wasn't mistaken in doing it.

---

Seacore wrote:I guess Krypt is the way to go. Maybe I was indeed on to something early D1

Will I finally get my Krypt wagon? =3

---

LlamaFluff wrote:1) Ignore Set
2) Vote set with no reason
3) Backoff quickly to go back to rereading Set/Sea
4) Jump to TS while still attacking Set/Sea playstyle
5) Threat to hammer Sea, Set slips to third suspect for unknown reasons. This is especially bad given the exchanges that Doom had been having with Set to me.
6) Is happy with a Set or Sea lynch, calls for TS vig

This echoes my own feelings on DB. I was discussing this with Grey last night, and I said that DB having Set as third place yet somehow still coming through to vote for Set instead of Seacore (just as the tides were turning) looked like a bus when he realised Seacore wans't getting lynched.

---

Regfan wrote:I still believe you should claim in your next post.

Why are you so desperate for LF to claim? There's no need for him to claim, unless someone is waiting to hammer. Besides, Seacore has already said that his claim doesn't prove his alignment, so outing the role won't help you assess LF either way. It will just tell the scum what role he has.
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Post Post #827 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 10:32 pm

Post by Regfan »

Feysal thanks for responding, I'll wait before you post the rest of your analysis to comment on it.

AurorusVox wrote: This echoes my own feelings on DB. I was discussing this with Grey last night, and I said that DB having Set as third place yet somehow still coming through to vote for Set instead of Seacore (just as the tides were turning) looked like a bus when he realised Seacore wans't getting lynched.

If you're going to make a comment such as this I would appreciate if you could comment on the fact that I pointed out the entirety of Llama's post was crap.

AurorusVox wrote: Why are you so desperate for LF to claim? There's no need for him to claim, unless someone is waiting to hammer. Besides, Seacore has already said that his claim doesn't prove his alignment, so outing the role won't help you assess LF either way. It will just tell the scum what role he has.

I believe the reason is incredibly obvious and is also the reason why I'm currently attempting to push a mass-claim. Both of my major suspects have apparently claimed PRs in the pre-game therefore I would like to attain more information in respect to their claims to be able to properly judge them. Considering the fact I have town-reads on close to everyone else if there's a time that I want to know I have to rethink and reanalyse the game it's now.
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Post Post #828 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 10:45 pm

Post by AurorusVox »

Regfan wrote:
AurorusVox wrote: This echoes my own feelings on DB. I was discussing this with Grey last night, and I said that DB having Set as third place yet somehow still coming through to vote for Set instead of Seacore (just as the tides were turning) looked like a bus when he realised Seacore wans't getting lynched.

If you're going to make a comment such as this I would appreciate if you could comment on the fact that I pointed out the entirety of Llama's post was crap.

I will gladly comment on it, but I felt that LF may have wanted the first bite, so to speak.

The specific point that I have raised I don't feel you have adequately covered, and I doubt you can cover it since you "can't answer" for DB due to your own Seacore townread. But let's try anyway; here's what you said:

Regfan wrote:I can't answer thiis, one I have no idea why Doom threatened to hammer Sea because I read Sea as town.


- DB has Seacore as a higher suspect than Setael.
- Setael wagon gains more momentum.
- DB votes Setael despite having TWO other people ahead of him in terms of scumminess

That looks like bussing after people leave the Seacore wagon alone.

Regfan wrote:
AurorusVox wrote: Why are you so desperate for LF to claim? There's no need for him to claim, unless someone is waiting to hammer. Besides, Seacore has already said that his claim doesn't prove his alignment, so outing the role won't help you assess LF either way. It will just tell the scum what role he has.

I believe the reason is incredibly obvious and is also the reason why I'm currently attempting to push a mass-claim. Both of my major suspects have apparently claimed PRs in the pre-game therefore I would like to attain more information in respect to their claims to be able to properly judge them. Considering the fact I have town-reads on close to everyone else if there's a time that I want to know I have to rethink and reanalyse the game it's now.

I understand the time issue, and that seems more suited to your requests for massclaim. But I'm not sure how LF's specifically will help considering it's already been said that it doesn't confirm his alignment. If anything, Feysal is the one you should be pushing to claim since that has more of an impact on his alignment than anything...
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Post Post #829 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 10:46 pm

Post by AurorusVox »

EBWOP: I should have added, "the question isn't so much why he threatened to hammer, as why he eventually voted for Setael."
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Post Post #830 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 10:55 pm

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AV wrote: - DB has Seacore as a higher suspect than Setael.
- Setael wagon gains more momentum.
- DB votes Setael despite having TWO other people ahead of him in terms of scumminess

That looks like bussing after people leave the Seacore wagon alone.

Again, I can't defend his particular action because I don't understand what thought process he had going at the current time. Though I would like for you to explain in what way reducing the number or votes on the wagon gaining momentum at the point where it needed it most to vote elsewhere is a scum-tell.

AV wrote: But I'm not sure how LF's specifically will help considering it's already been said that it doesn't confirm his alignment. If anything, Feysal is the one you should be pushing to claim since that has more of an impact on his alignment than anything...

1) Someone else stating that they don't believe Llama's role will lead to much discovery about his allignment doesn't mean that it's true. Considering the large amount of breadcrumbing and soft-claiming that's been done I would like an opportunity to judge his claim for myself.

2) I want him to complete his read through of the thread first becuase I believe I'll be able to attain a more solid read of him through that, if I still have a scum-read when he's completed I would willingly ask him to claim.
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Post Post #831 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 11:16 pm

Post by AurorusVox »

Regfan wrote:I would like for you to explain in what way reducing the number or votes on the wagon gaining momentum at the point where it needed it most to vote elsewhere is a scum-tell.

The Seacore wagon was
losing
momentum in favour of the Setael wagon when Doom voted.
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Post Post #832 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 11:19 pm

Post by Regfan »

AurorusVox wrote:The Seacore wagon was
losing
momentum in favour of the Setael wagon when Doom voted.

So if anything shouldn't that prove that this slot is town?
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Post Post #833 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 11:34 pm

Post by AurorusVox »

No, because such a shift in momentum would be the perfect time for DB to have bussed.
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Post Post #834 (ISO) » Mon May 23, 2011 11:41 pm

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I think it's fair to assume that bussing is generally unoptimal play unless said player attains town-cred from doing so.

1. If you believe Doom bussed to attain town-cred what reasoning would he have for not pushing the Set lynch stronger?
2. What reasoning would he have for replacing out after 'bussing' for town-cred?

The answer to the above two questions is none. He had three leading suspects, this was incredibly clear and I'm sure you can agree upon such. The fact he changed his vote from one of them to another is incredibly simple to understand and the fact that Llama is attempting to push that as a scum-tell is bizarre.
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Post Post #835 (ISO) » Tue May 24, 2011 12:30 am

Post by AurorusVox »

1. A reasonable answer is that he had hoped that the Seacore wagon would take off. I'm surprised this hasn't occurred to you. My qualm with this line of thinking was that I wasn't sold on Seacore town (which my argument kinda requires). But Nacho has made a convincing case for Seacore town, and so I'm willing to table Seacore as scum for now.
2. I don't treat replacing out as an alignment tell at all. Scum and town can become equally busy. Besides, any town cred he gained would remain attached to the slot; it doesn't leave with him. This point sure does look like padding with which you're trying to undermine my argument, maybe deflecting onto the replacement out in the hope of misdirecting my case. What relevance do you think the replace out really has?
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Post Post #836 (ISO) » Tue May 24, 2011 12:49 am

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AurorusVox wrote:1. A reasonable answer is that he had hoped that the Seacore wagon would take off. I'm surprised this hasn't occurred to you. My qualm with this line of thinking was that I wasn't sold on Seacore town (which my argument kinda requires). But Nacho has made a convincing case for Seacore town, and so I'm willing to table Seacore as scum for now.
2. I don't treat replacing out as an alignment tell at all. Scum and town can become equally busy. Besides, any town cred he gained would remain attached to the slot; it doesn't leave with him. This point sure does look like padding with which you're trying to undermine my argument, maybe deflecting onto the replacement out in the hope of misdirecting my case. What relevance do you think the replace out really has?

1. So how does his vote differentiate from anyone else on either of the wagons then.

2. As much as a player plays for his allignment to win he also has wants to win himself therefore even if his real life issues were overwhelming if you believe he planned on bussing to attain town-cred wouldn't his thought process have been he could slide through today ie. His activity need-not be incredibly high removing the need for him to replace out? I have no need to add 'padding' to prove how the entire argument Llama and you are putting forward is wrong, I've gone into it already you've just got yourself stuck in a form of confirmation bias.
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Post Post #837 (ISO) » Tue May 24, 2011 12:50 am

Post by Regfan »

This is my post for ISO purposes, I promise I won't post on the wrong account again:
Duplicity wrote:
AurorusVox wrote:1. A reasonable answer is that he had hoped that the Seacore wagon would take off. I'm surprised this hasn't occurred to you. My qualm with this line of thinking was that I wasn't sold on Seacore town (which my argument kinda requires). But Nacho has made a convincing case for Seacore town, and so I'm willing to table Seacore as scum for now.
2. I don't treat replacing out as an alignment tell at all. Scum and town can become equally busy. Besides, any town cred he gained would remain attached to the slot; it doesn't leave with him. This point sure does look like padding with which you're trying to undermine my argument, maybe deflecting onto the replacement out in the hope of misdirecting my case. What relevance do you think the replace out really has?

1. So how does his vote differentiate from anyone else on either of the wagons then.

2. As much as a player plays for his allignment to win he also has wants to win himself therefore even if his real life issues were overwhelming if you believe he planned on bussing to attain town-cred wouldn't his thought process have been he could slide through today ie. His activity need-not be incredibly high removing the need for him to replace out? I have no need to add 'padding' to prove how the entire argument Llama and you are putting forward is wrong, I've gone into it already you've just got yourself stuck in a form of confirmation bias.
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Post Post #838 (ISO) » Tue May 24, 2011 1:38 am

Post by AurorusVox »

1. Two reasons; firstly, the timing is different in the case of DB - he was following the shift, not causing it. Secondly, other people found Setael
more scummy
than Seacore and voted appropriately, whereas DB found Seacore (and TS) scummier than Setael but didn't vote for Seacore.

2. Balance against this town-cred the fact that Nacho voted for DB, I called him scum, and Llama also expressed an interest in the wagon towards the end of the day, and I don't think DB would have made it through today on low activity. I really don't think his replacement out is a good defence or a towntell in any way. As for your bullet points in response to Llama, I've already said that I'm leaving that to Llama since it was his post you're responding to. We're discussing my main concern now anyway so I see no need to respond to those other points yet; my problem with your slot is independent of the other points Llama has raised.

---

This thread needs more Kryptinen. Krypt: what's your opinion of LlamaFluff and Regfan?
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Post Post #839 (ISO) » Tue May 24, 2011 4:02 am

Post by GreyICE »

Twistedspoon wrote:
set's in this. Oh boy I'm dead :/


Setael wrote:
Scum vibes from TS' post 104. He asks AV if he's happy with his Kryp vote and what he thinks of the other 2 wagons when I definitely can't tell you what TS thinks of anyone except maybe NS.

not true

Twistedspoon wrote:
My 'legitimate philosophy' is to vote those I find scummy.
VOTE: Jedo

and

Twistedspoon wrote:
and I'm watching krypten, but not feeling strongly enough about his case to vote yet

are just a couple of examples

If you want more of my reads I can say that my top town are DB, Packbat and AV

catching up this page now


Jesus why are people voting for TwistedSpoon?

Twistedspoon wrote:
set's in this. Oh boy I'm dead :/


Setael wrote:
Twistedspoon wrote:
kryptinen wrote:
@TS what good does a "secret" reason do? If it's such a secret why are you telling us you have one? If you have caught something scummy, please share with the rest of us. Just tangling it in front of our noses does not make it look like you have something new to say when you don't

nevermind

ignore it i was in an odd mood at the time. I gave 2 reasons and that satisfies the question


TS wrote:I stupidly held something back, but I still gave 2 other reasons to satisfy the question

I'm confused. If you regret holding something back, why are you still holding it back?

Twistedspoon wrote:
Setael wrote:
I'm confused. If you regret holding something back, why are you still holding it back?

I'm not

I just made something up to try and provide wifom for the scum or something like that, but it turns out it's just town wifom

Ignore it, I had no 3rd reason


Feysal is fucking confirmed town.

LlamaFluff looks bad. WickedString may have been obvtown, but he had three Mafia reads - Glass, Powerrox, and Quaroath. Obvtown with horrible reads is NOT your night 1 kill. He was backing off Glass after Llama replace (I can confirm this, although he seemed chattier with Vox than Jedo... not much of a surprise tbh).

Combined with everything else, and Nacho making some good points on Seacore, and Llama being one of the four people riding Jedo's case lamely after day 1, well...

Vote: LlamaFluff


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Post Post #840 (ISO) » Tue May 24, 2011 10:30 am

Post by LlamaFluff »

Regfan wrote:
LlamaFluff wrote: Infact him breadcrumbing what I thought was vig very hard during day one is the only reason I didnt vote him and went with AV.

Link me to the posts in which you believed Doom soft-claimed.


Doom Iso 2 wrote:The only issue with the claim is that in an endgame situation, he may choose to vote with the scum in order to save himself and win but if that's the case,
we can easily vig him
.


Right there is the only reason I pushed AV over him.

LlamaFluff wrote:1) Ignore Set
2) Vote set with no reason
3) Backoff quickly to go back to rereading Set/Sea
4) Jump to TS while still attacking Set/Sea playstyle
5) Threat to hammer Sea, Set slips to third suspect for unknown reasons. This is especially bad given the exchanges that Doom had been having with Set to me.
6) Is happy with a Set or Sea lynch, calls for TS vig


1) Isn't true at all, ISO #32, URL #33 ISO #34, ISO #35, ISO #58, ISO #59, ISO #62, ISO #63, ISO #66, ISO #74 and ISO #77 are all directed to Set.


You proved my point. Except for a little arguement (33-35) Doom ignored Set until point 2.

2) The vote is ISO #57 where he votes her in a period where Sea is at L-2. Explain what scummotivtion there is in doing so.


Probably fear of putting Sea at L-1 at that point in the game, this may be due to me saying just before that I could see a Set-Sea-AV trio as well. He did immediately go back to saying Set and Sea are both scummy of the exact same reasons though.

3) The unsureness that Doom had between Sea/Set was shared by the entire room, everyone was going back from one to the other, so exactly in what way is that a scum-tell?


Not the ENTIRE room. There were a couple people squarely in either camp. Note that doom basically ignored my defense of Sea as well the entire time. He also was only on Set for about 8 hours, and in that time, Set managed to look worse if anything. That was not a strong lynching vote, I see it more of a distancing vote.

4) Doom shared my suspicion of TS I believe, in what way is attacking an alternate FoS while being unsure over Set/Sea a scumtell?


Vote, not FoS. Also this was RIGHT after he explicitly implied that Set/Sea were his top reads. It comes out of absolutely nowhere, and some of the attacks on him are wierd. He pressures TS for saying Sea is scum and for calling Set town (while Doom voted him about 24 hours ago). That makes no sense to me, and reads of scum trying to instead set TS up for when either or both of those two flip for having taken the wrong stances on them. You can for a second say that you dont pay attention to who has taken the wrong stances on people as scum to use that later. Doom just jumped the gun here.

5) I can't answer thiis, one I have no idea why Doom threatened to hammer Sea because I read Sea as town.


I can. Doom is scum. Again, this contradicts his attack on TS for calling Sea scum just a little bit ago. Everything feels out of place and like he is scrambling to figure out what the right move is.

6) Again, everyone believed a Sea/Set lynch was good, in what way is this relevant only to Doom? Again, what way is asking for your FoS to be vigged a scum-tell?


Lots of reasons. In a position where Sea was a wagon not going away, TS was a wagon that could have been gaining ground, and Set was a wagon holding on a bit as well, we were at a bit of a crossroad for where the right move was. When this happened, Doom shoved Set to the back of his top three for no given reason. Makes NO sense. Look at the posts from Doom leading up to this point, they all are somewhat pressuring Set while not mentioning Sea, yet at the end of it all that somehow means that Sea is more likely scum? Even when Set was the most recent of the two he voted? Not happening from a natural town thought process. I mean, he moves Scum back to #3, rival wagon prob-town to #2, leaning town to #1. Then he jumps on his #3 when he is offically screwed, while still saying that he is happy with a lynch of Sea... I just dont see town doing that

LlamaFluff wrote: Reg really hasnt done much since his opening post, since then its been trying to get a claim out of me, apart from that, its just been calling Sea town.

1. This isn't true at all you only have to read my posts to know that - On top of that you haven't responded to ANY of the questions or suspicions I had for you in my opening post.
2. This isn't a scum-tell, if it was you'd be voting Feysal.


For your points here... you really are mostly concentrating on my claim after your catchup post. You defend Sea a bit, but a majority of your posts are spent doing that and trying to get me to claim.

"Against" me you have the wanting to lynch Nacho (which IS the correct move, cannot stress this enough for everyone in future games, ALWAYS lynch claimed non-town, since they are a threat to the town win condition), not trying hard enough to get the wagon off Quar due to not digging up links, and thats really about it.

Also yes, not doing much is a tell, but im thinking TS may be town due to something said to me by Nacho, and I still lean that way.

@Grey - You have to be insane to think that Wicked wasnt going to get killed due to being obv-town. You also missed his spat with Set near the end of the first day? I wouldnt be shocked if none of Wickeds partners were scum if those were his reads, but still, unless they were sure that someone was a power role, no way wicked was living. Game was fractured and he was one of the only ones who was obviously town.

Its Doom+Krypt I think, it works on interactions, vote counts, everything.
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Post Post #841 (ISO) » Tue May 24, 2011 10:42 am

Post by kryptinen »

AurorusVox wrote:I can't make out if you're in favour of a Nacho lynch today. You say his lynch will give us zero information, but also that he'll be a liability tomorrow if we happen to mislynch today...are yo confident that we can lynch scum today? Because your lack of vote suggests otherwise.

I think it's best to not limit ourselves to a nacho lynch - that if anything will stop all the glorious discussion.

Regfan wrote:What I fail to understand is this: You state, I'm a PR if I die it's likely one of my neighbours is mafia. By stating that you're a PR openely you give motive for anyone to kill you, meaning the point of you claiming is nullified and the fact that you're stating that if you die one of your neighbours is likely scum is incorrect.

I read this statement as "I'm not dead; my neighbors are likely town".

AurorusVox wrote:This thread needs more Kryptinen. Krypt: what's your opinion of LlamaFluff and Regfan?

My read on Llama is null right now. I'd do an ISO if I had time. His play has been steadily slipping trough out the game from the town read I had on him on night one.
Regfan is scummy for reasons already stated by people other than me.

I thought Doom was vig too. Here's his softclaims that someone asked for. Powerroles have a habit of talking about their roles and especially assuming the game has one, as Doom did with a vig:
Doombunny9 wrote:The only issue with the claim is that in an endgame situation, he may choose to vote with the scum in order to save himself and win but if that's the case,
we can easily vig him.
Doombunny9 wrote:I see what you mean now. I was thinking that if it looked like we were reaching a endgame situation but before we were there, we could get him vigged if it looked as if he might "switch sides"
(This is all assuming we have a living vig at that point)
but as Sea stated, this all doesn't matter too much until we get to that point so there's no use trying to plan out so far in advance.

This is not day one, but
Doombunny9 wrote:Actually, I'd be happy to vote Sea/Set since TS is more vigbait anything else (
Any vigs out there, you'd better get the picture
)

Whe questioned about his assumptions he said this:
Doombunny9 wrote:
I was assuming we had a vig for simplicities sake
and a lynch would be just as fine. I also beleive I stated that we'd need to do it close to an endgame situation, not during an endgame situation.

Having a vig is something that can greatly alter towns play. It's not "simple".
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Post Post #842 (ISO) » Tue May 24, 2011 12:48 pm

Post by Seacore »

kryptinen wrote:
I think it's best to not limit ourselves to a nacho lynch - that if anything will stop all the glorious discussion.



Glorious discussion huh?

What are you gaining out of this discussion? I don't see any reads forming? This is the equivalent to saying "that's interesting", meaning "I want to look like I"m scum hunting, but I don't want to get pinned down"

Please post some actual reads. You look incredibly scummy to me.

You've posted some discussion points, a null read and a past read that no longer applies, anything current?
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Post Post #843 (ISO) » Tue May 24, 2011 7:21 pm

Post by Regfan »

LlamaFluff wrote: Right there is the only reason I pushed AV over him.

Stating that someone can be vigged isn't a soft-claim for vig.

LlamaFluff wrote: You proved my point. Except for a little arguement (33-35) Doom ignored Set until point 2.

I refuse to believe that you're actually this stupid, apart from her interactions with Nacho and Seacore she interacted with this slot the most, you continously attempting to push the fact that there was a lack of conversation or activity between Setael and Doom is as previously said, stupid.

LlamaFluff wrote: Probably fear of putting Sea at L-1 at that point in the game, this may be due to me saying just before that I could see a Set-Sea-AV trio as well. He did immediately go back to saying Set and Sea are both scummy of the exact same reasons though.

So your entire basis of your case comes down to you believing that Doom voted Set out of 'fear', seriously this is getting worse and worse.

LlamaFluff wrote: Not the ENTIRE room. There were a couple people squarely in either camp. Note that doom basically ignored my defense of Sea as well the entire time. He also was only on Set for about 8 hours, and in that time, Set managed to look worse if anything. That was not a strong lynching vote, I see it more of a distancing vote.

Perhaps the entire room was an exaggeration but there was an extreme number of people unsure between Seacore and Set including yourself, so I fail to see how you attempt to link that as a scum-tell.

LlamaFluff wrote: Vote, not FoS. Also this was RIGHT after he explicitly implied that Set/Sea were his top reads. It comes out of absolutely nowhere, and some of the attacks on him are wierd. He pressures TS for saying Sea is scum and for calling Set town (while Doom voted him about 24 hours ago). That makes no sense to me, and reads of scum trying to instead set TS up for when either or both of those two flip for having taken the wrong stances on them. You can for a second say that you dont pay attention to who has taken the wrong stances on people as scum to use that later. Doom just jumped the gun here.

You're continuing to push an extreme angle here, you're refusing to step back for a second and think about the fact that Doom stated uneasiness between Set/Sea meaning it's entirely understandable to vote for your next FoS in line.

LlamaFluff wrote: I can. Doom is scum. Again, this contradicts his attack on TS for calling Sea scum just a little bit ago. Everything feels out of place and like he is scrambling to figure out what the right move is.

This is you just attempting to jump on the one that I can't understand - The fact that he FoS'ed Sea which GreyICE also hapened to, meaning do you believe that FoS'sing Seacore is a scum-tell, yes or no?

LlamaFluff wrote: For your points here... you really are mostly concentrating on my claim after your catchup post. You defend Sea a bit, but a majority of your posts are spent doing that and trying to get me to claim.

This is complete and utter bullshit, you know it, I know it heck the old lady across the street knows it. For one I've been in this game a few days, stated my town and scum reads as well as reasoning behind them, stated where I want to dissect information from as well as defending my town-reads. What more would you expect from a replacement?

LlamaFluff wrote: Its Doom+Krypt I think, it works on interactions, vote counts, everything.

If you asked me last night I would have agreed with you on Krypt, I believed I'd spotted a scum-slip on him and was going to replace out due to the unfariness in it, it being that my QT with Krypt had an excessive number of unique views, 7 to be exact and I believed that the number was so high because she had given it to her scum-partners however LMP confirmed that scum-partners cannot give their QT out. However re-reading through the thread I fail to see any realistic way that Krpyt can be scum, especially due to her attitude in the QT last night.

@Everyone
, do you think there's a possibility mafia could be limited to killing someone they're next to?
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Post Post #844 (ISO) » Tue May 24, 2011 11:50 pm

Post by Regfan »

Been pondering over the fact that TS claimed a PR pre-game, I have great difficulty believing that TS replaced out of a game where he was a town-pr and we had just lynched a mafia. His replacing out has nothing to do with real-life taking it's toll because he's still playing in multiple, multiple other games.
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Post Post #845 (ISO) » Wed May 25, 2011 2:23 am

Post by AurorusVox »

Regfan wrote:
@Everyone
, do you think there's a possibility mafia could be limited to killing someone they're next to?

I know this isn't true as Wicked was wedged between Jedo/GreyICE and I.

But if
you
think its true, that means that last night's kill could have
only
come from you or Seacore; if you read Seacore as town, then why are you even considering this as a possibility?

Regfan wrote:Been pondering over the fact that TS claimed a PR pre-game, I have great difficulty believing that TS replaced out of a game where he was a town-pr and we had just lynched a mafia. His replacing out has nothing to do with real-life taking it's toll because he's still playing in multiple, multiple other games.

This could have had something to do with it:
Seacore wrote:If you are town please ask to be replaced by someone who will read and try to play. You are doing neither.


It looks like you've realised that pushing the easy mislynch isn't going to be so easy, and so you've turn to smearing his replacement out...despite the fact that it was
requested
by a player that you read as town.

---

kryptinen wrote:
AurorusVox wrote:This thread needs more Kryptinen. Krypt: what's your opinion of LlamaFluff and Regfan?

My read on Llama is null right now. I'd do an ISO if I had time. His play has been steadily slipping trough out the game from the town read I had on him on night one.
Regfan is scummy for reasons already stated by people other than me.

Is there a reason you're not voting for Regfan if he's scummy?

This reads as Krypt trying to stay off a buddy's wagon, much like she did with Setael. I looked through Krypt's ISO for mentions of Doom. There weren't very many;

ISO #11 - poking NS about his Doom vote.
ISO #12 - echoes Doom's question to Jedo
ISO #13 - again mentions that NS had no reason for his Doom vote.
ISO #16 - mentions possible scum motivation behind Doom's actions - kinda out of nowhere. Potential distancing as she doesn't follow up and flat out
call
DB scummy.
ISO #36 (1/2) - attacks DB completely out of nowhere. Literally no mention of him as an actual scumread before this post, in which she calls him "(scum disappointed in a failed mislynch?"). Note that she's still leaving a way out with the question mark.
ISO #36 (2/2) - despite calling DB scum she now echoes his question for the second time.
ISO #40 - now believes that scum are direction the attention onto DB, which assumes DB is town.

And then there's the recent post (ISO #42) where Doom is scum again. But again, I will stress that there's no vote to accompany it.

---

I continued looking at the interaction angle. Doom mentions Krypt a lot more, starting in ISO #4 and ISO #5 where he seems to find Krypt suspicious. This creeps up again in ISO #7.

But in ISO #6 he questions why Jedo is voting for Krypt; this pressure continues in ISO #9; again in ISO #11; he flat out defends Krypt against Seacore in ISO #12 and ISO #13; plus pressures NS for his Krypt L-1 vote in ISO #13.

But in ISO #17 he seems to be directing Seacore onto Krypt as a good lynch all of a sudden?

In the mean time, Wicked pressured Doom for not voting Krypt here and here; and LF pressures Doom for it here.

Then much later in his ISO #55 he seems well aware that people have left their vote on Krypt for a long time, trying to imply that this could be seen as scummy; says my Krypt case is no good in ISO #74 but quickly retracts this in ISO #75 which makes me think he didn't want to get into a long debate about Krypt's scumminess for fear of bringing attention to it.

And now we have Regfan who is calling Krypt town based in part on their QT - which we, of course, can't see - and also admits that he can't really put his read into words beyond calling it obvTown. Sorry but I haven't read it as obvTown at all. The one solid point he gives is Krypt's frustration, which I don't really understand as a towntell...

All in all, I'm fairly confident that these two players are scumbuddies based on their interactions with one another.

If the people on the Reg wagon won't join me in voting Krypt, then I'll gladly
Unvote; Vote: Regfan
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Post Post #846 (ISO) » Wed May 25, 2011 2:30 am

Post by Regfan »

AurorusVox wrote:But if
you
think its true, that means that last night's kill could have
only
come from you or Seacore; if you read Seacore as town, then why are you even considering this as a possibility?

I never stated I believe it's true however considering the fact I've never played in a setup such as this before and GI stated he has I'm intersted in hearing other peoples thoughts on the matter.

AV wrote:
This could have had something to do with it:
Seacore wrote:If you are town please ask to be replaced by someone who will read and try to play. You are doing neither.


It looks like you've realised that pushing the easy mislynch isn't going to be so easy, and so you've turn to smearing his replacement out...despite the fact that it was
requested
by a player that you read as town.

I've played with Twisted in several games as well as observed others of his, people have asked him to replace out several times, he never has so yes I do find the fact he replaced out suspicious, you find it scummy to bring that up?

AV wrote: All in all, I'm fairly confident that these two players are scumbuddies based on their interactions with one another.

If the people on the Reg wagon won't join me in voting Krypt, then I'll gladly
Unvote; Vote: Regfan
(L-2 I think)

Can you be any more fucking stupid? Seriously? Why the fuck would I be asking the mod if mafia share QTs if I was mafia with Krypt, heck why would I at all as mafia?

I'll respond to the rest of this in the morning when I'm fully awake and not pissed the fuck off.
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Post Post #847 (ISO) » Wed May 25, 2011 2:43 am

Post by GreyICE »

Regfan wrote:
AurorusVox wrote:But if
you
think its true, that means that last night's kill could have
only
come from you or Seacore; if you read Seacore as town, then why are you even considering this as a possibility?

I never stated I believe it's true however considering the fact I've never played in a setup such as this before and GI stated he has I'm intersted in hearing other peoples thoughts on the matter.

LF has specifically.

If you truly believe that the mafia can only kill neighbors, that means you MUST vote for Vox. Me and Vox were Wicked's only neighbors, and I'm confirmed town.

We can evaluate Vox's reaction to this theory to evaluate how likely it is.

My thoughts? He didn't even consider it "proved him scum," meaning either its false because he's town, or its false because he's scum and knows it's false.
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Post Post #848 (ISO) » Wed May 25, 2011 2:46 am

Post by AurorusVox »

Regfan wrote:
AurorusVox wrote:But if
you
think its true, that means that last night's kill could have
only
come from you or Seacore; if you read Seacore as town, then why are you even considering this as a possibility?

I never stated I believe it's true however considering the fact I've never played in a setup such as this before and GI stated he has I'm intersted in hearing other peoples thoughts on the matter.

Do you believe it's true or do you believe it's false? If false, then why bring it up? If true, then try to pretend you don't?

Regfan wrote:I've played with Twisted in several games as well as observed others of his, people have asked him to replace out several times, he never has so yes I do find the fact he replaced out suspicious, you find it scummy to bring that up?

Are those on-going games or have they finished? If they're finished, what was his alignment? The fact that he's denied requests in other games is definitely noteworthy, so no, I don't find it as scummy now that you've said that. I don't agree with your assessment but I can see the value in bringing it up.

Regfan wrote:Can you be any more fucking stupid? Seriously? Why the fuck would I be asking the mod if mafia share QTs if I was mafia with Krypt, heck why would I at all as mafia?

But we only have your word for that, don't we? And even if you DID ask, maybe there were seven unique views and you were worried that one of the town might have a PR related to spying on QTs. Sorry but I'm not going to just blindly believe everything you say.

Regfan wrote:I'll respond to the rest of this in the morning when I'm fully awake and not pissed the fuck off.
[/quote]
Is this sort of language meant to scare me off your lynch? :\
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Post Post #849 (ISO) » Wed May 25, 2011 3:06 am

Post by Regfan »

GreyICE wrote: If you truly believe that the mafia can only kill neighbors, that means you MUST vote for Vox. Me and Vox were Wicked's only neighbors, and I'm confirmed town.

I don't truly believe it's the case but again as I stated I want people who are experienced with its thoughts.
AV wrote: Do you believe it's true or do you believe it's false? If false, then why bring it up? If true, then try to pretend you don't?

Read above. Given how all town-powers roles seem to work only on their neighbours I was just curious if it could be similar with the scum or not.
AV wrote: Are those on-going games or have they finished? If they're finished, what was his alignment? The fact that he's denied requests in other games is definitely noteworthy, so no, I don't find it as scummy now that you've said that. I don't agree with your assessment but I can see the value in bringing it up.

I believe there's one or two that are completed, I'll find them tommorow.
AV wrote: But we only have your word for that, don't we? And even if you DID ask, maybe there were seven unique views and you were worried that one of the town might have a PR related to spying on QTs. Sorry but I'm not going to just blindly believe everything you say.

Think for a second, why would I make something like that up.
AV wrote: Is this sort of language meant to scare me off your lynch? :\

Apologies for the language, I've just had an awful day.

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