Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

[mith]

/confirm

[mith]

Hi all.

Why I am in this game. I would have requested this one whatever role my team was assigned in it; I'm town because we were assigned town.

Llmarble and Thor665: You claim to prefer being town - is there anything in your meta you can point to that confirms this in any way? (On a related and more general note, I think DGB is the only one in this game I have played with before, so I don't expect I will pay much attention to claims of meta unless they are backed up with linked evidence.)

(On a completely unrelated but important note: I refuse to use the M word when discussing this setup. It puts us in entirely the wrong mindset. I was winning Vanilla games when some of you were still in diapers. Probably. I don't know how old you are.)

[mith]

Not much time (about to go crush some fifth graders at mini golf), so quickly...

Llamarble: It's a bit early for me to be looking at pairings, but I find it interesting that you asked a question which Thor665 was the first to answer, and you were able to find and provide better justification for his answer than for your own. Feels a bit staged somehow. What are your thoughts on the answers others have provided?

My mind says Llamafluff is raising good points against Equinox. Primarily:

1. Thinking it was 5 to lynch yet strongly encouraging others to join a wagon at L-2 without pointing this out. (Also, the respect-wagon got to 4 votes... one would think a town Equinox would mention that the opposing wagon was at L-1.)
2. His reaction to thinking InflatablePie had been hammered... not the reaction I would be expecting for someone who has strong (?) reasons for thinking IP is scum.

My gut, on the other hand, doesn't like LlamaFluff, and I need to figure out why.

[mith]

InflatablePie: When I vote, it's a sign that I am willing to lynch someone; I don't vote randomly. If I'd had more time this morning to read the game, I probably would have voted; as you say, there is plenty of information available at this point. (I'm sure you can figure out what the M word is from the context of me calling this a Vanilla setup.)

Thor: "Mith is scum because he's bothering to take time to attack someone's town reads..." - Eh? If you're talking about Llamarble, I wasn't attacking his town read; what I found eyebrow-raise worthy was that I asked you both a question and he answered for you, with a more convincing answer for you than for himself.

I'll see if I can delve into the back-and-forth arguments (Sotty7/Thor665, InflatablePie/DemonHybrid) when I am more awake tomorrow, but my current reads after skimming and some ISO:

DemonHybrid - 45 is just weird. Points 1 and 3 look out of place in a post where he ends up voting InflatablePie, and point 2 (presumably the reason for that vote) is agreement with something Equinox never said. Then comes the discussion with LlamaFluff (and later InflatablePie), during which I'm noticing a big hole that needs filling:

DemonHybrid, what

do

you think of Equinox? You've talked an awful lot about her without actually saying anything about your read on her.

Llamarble - Aside from the above, the whole "leaving a random self-vote in place while posting a partly dodgy questionaire" thing Sotty7 points out definitely rubs me the wrong way. I agree with Thor that Llamarble's play doesn't feel like optimal scum play... it does, however, feel like sloppy scum play.

Equinox - Nothing has changed here from my previous post. His seeming push to run up InflatablePie doesn't mesh with his apparent lack of counting skills. Also spends a lot of time talking about my wagon... at the moment, feels like some sort of indirect buddying.

LlamaFluff - The exchange with DemonHybrid is odd, rhetorical statement or no. Can't shake the gut read, but still not seeing anything overtly scummy.

DrippingGoofball - The "lurker hunt" comment feels so familiar to my most recent DGB experience, where she was scum. (Not the specific comment, just the vibe.) Lots of comments about scumtells/towntells... which is a nulltell, probably.

InflatablePie - I don't like self-votes, and particularly a L-1 "I dare you to lynch me" self-vote seems more like a scum tactic (either his buddies are on the wagon and can unvote, or they're off and he doesn't have to worry as much about someone hammering). Since that, though, he's making sense.

SocioPath - Just barely above the non-active line; multiple posts with little content. [edit]Until the DGB one; don't feel strongly about it, but it makes me feel better about Sociopath that he spotted the possible slip.[/edit]

Sevei - The non-active line.

Thor665 - Other than the "I wanna hammer mith" comment, has looked quite town.

Klazam - Good point on SocioPath; otherwise, under my radar.

Chris B - Hasn't posted much, but what's there feels awfully genuine.

Sotty7 - Liking how she thinks.

[mith]

Vote: DemonHybrid

[mith]

DemonHybrid: Fair enough if you would have spoken up on suspecting Equinox, but wouldn't you also speak up (before now, when you have been asked about her directly) if you found her townish? That whole exchange with LlamaFluff reads like you were trying to defend Equinox without actually coming out and committing to a town read (in case things went south?).

First in 51, we have you responding to LlamaFluff's vote by questioning his stance on meta; the follow-up in 55 then asks (paraphrasing) "Well if you think it's Equinox-IP, why aren't you picking on IP??".

So that's part of what was odd about that exchange. Then you apparently take offense when he implies you agree with him about Equinox - again without actually saying "No, I think she's town", followed by some "I FOSed you and you didn't respond" sulking. Meh.

(I'm not sure which point you're talking about with "I believe I have the right to agree with a point, even though I don't have a specific read on a person." - if you're talking about your post 45 point 2, I'm still lost, because you're saying you have the right to agree to a point which was never made. If you're talking about some other point, clarify.)

DrippingGoofball: I'm loving a DemonHybrid/Llamarble/Equinox group right now; they were my top three independently, but DH/Equinox makes a lot of sense given the above, and I quite like Llamarble/Equinox for the sheeping, plus the end of 179: "If I were Sottytown and didn't like the parroting, I'd have liked Equinox for wavelengthsharing on disliking the Mith wagon parroting.".

[mith]

DGB, you might want to try reading my post again. And paying extra special attention to the first eleven characters.

[mith]

Everyone: Could someone more familiar with DemonHybrid's play tell me if it's usual (as town or as scum) for him to apologize so much to someone attacking him?

DemonHybrid:

"I apologize, but I also believe that I've said a few times that Equinox was not on my scumlist to IP." - Ok... but "not on my scumlist" does not equal "town", anymore than you telling LlamaFluff you weren't ruling her out as scum equates to you calling her obvscum. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you never talked about your "read" on Equinox except in the negative ("I'm not ruling her out"; "I didn't say that!"; "I never posted any suspicion of her").

The point is that when you were asked directly about her alignment (by me), you brought up some points in her favor which I would have thought would be relevant in discussing her previously. I'm trying to figure out why you didn't bring them up immediately, rather than going to more indirect route of "I'm not ruling Equinox out, but you should be voting IP if you think that". (Note that the "strong townish response" she supposedly gave in post 49 was

before

the LlamaFluff and InflatablePie exchanges.) My current hypothesis is that you didn't bring them up because you're lying scum, but I'm willing to be proven wrong.

"If he really believed an Equinox-IP scumteam, he would have..." - I can't speak for what's in LlamaFluff's mind or what he should have done, but when I look at pairings early in a game I don't tend to treat those reads as stone cold 100% certainty, and my vote tends to go on whoever's behaviour I'm keying on. "You think this pair are scum together, so why don't you vote for the other one instead?" always sets off alarms for me (except in cases where there really is that near-certainty; i.e. "if Equinox is scum, IP

must

be, so IP is the better vote").

---

Reading through SocioPath's DGB case... mostly seems to lack substance (and has that distinctive OMGUS feel), until the last two points (about DGB trying to negate a town read on SP by calling it a null tell; and the DGB/Equinox obvtown link). Of the leading wagons, I would still feel more confident switching to Llamarble.

(LlamaFluff drops down The List™ to "solidly town" status. Still not sure what was bothering the gut, but it's gone now.)

[mith]

In reading through again, I realized that we're arguing about some sort of alternate reality -

LlamaFluff didn't call Equinox-IP a scum team at all.

It would be hypocritical of me to find fault with you for missing it, since I only just now noticed... I'm not sure it takes away from your argument being scummy, though:

"I'd like you to tell me who is 100% certain about a read at this point in a game." - That's precisely my point! In our fictional world where LlamaFluff has a non-certain Equinox-IP link based on Equinox's behaviour, and also a scum read on Equinox alone, it would be utterly foolish of him to switch to IP; in AlterFluff's worldview, IP's scumminess is dependent on Equinox's, and Equinox is the more likely suspect. The size of IP's wagon is mostly irrelevant (if not harmful to your case - you're suggesting LlamaFluff should have pushed IP to L-1 when IP wasn't his top suspect?) this early in the day - if it were 12 hours to deadline with IP and another (non-Equinox) player at L-2, and LlamaFluff voted for Equinox then, yeah, that would be weird/suspicious.

As for the rest... "If I don't have a scum read, then you could at least be able to deduce that I have a null or higher read." - If you haven't said anything either way, I would deduce that you have a null read. If you later tell me you had a town read all along, I find that highly dubious.

[mith]

Why do you keep bringing up that you agreed with her (or what you thought she was implying, to be more accurate)? My issue there was that you were justifying your bandwagon vote by agreeing with something that wasn't said; it had nothing whatsoever to do with your read on her.

I keep bringing up your read on Equinox because:

a. It's odd that you didn't share that read when you formed it, rather than later.
b. Your exchange with LlamaFluff seems to me like a soft-defense of a scumbuddy without committing to a stance on her, or perhaps an opportunistic attempt to push LlamaFluff toward IP after misunderstanding his Equinox-IP statement, or both.

[mith]

DemonHybrid: "You keep saying that it has nothing to do with my read, yet you keep talking about it." - Bweh? I said that

finding you agreeing with an imaginary Equinox stance scummy

had nothing to do with your read on her; that's a separate issue from what you're responding to here (finding it odd that you didn't share your read sooner).

Whether you misread LlamaFluff's statement as a conditional or not is pretty irrelevant to my case; it's clear from context and the timing of the game that a statement of "Equinox and IP are scumbuddies" would have been based primarily on Equinox's play (since LlamaFluff was attacking and voting her), and would not be something LlamaFluff held as absolutely certain. (To be fair, I'm not sure I would find it all that less scumstastic if you were trying to push him from his stated vote to a L-1 even if he had presented perfectly symmetrical cases on the two of them. "You like this pairing, why don't you vote for the other half?" just resonates with me as a strong scumtell.)

---

I started rereading DGB with the feeling that this wagon is dodgy (and thus she's probably town), but now I'm not so sure:

1. I dismissed this part when reading SocioPath's case because it's not really a contradiction, but the whole "I can't tell the Llamas apart" thing seems like an act (178's "I hope I the right Llama [sic]" especially).

2. "Then why not vote Sociopath instead of Klazam? Klazam hangs a bit lower than Sociopath on the fruit tree." in the same post is exactly the sort of scummy nonsense that DH-scum is guilty of.

Sticking with DemonHybrid for now, but I'm starting to talk myself into DGB-scum.

[mith]

DemonHybrid: "You're literally focusing on ONE end-of-RVS post..." - Er, no, I'm not. I pointed it out as strange initially, and since then all I have said about it was clarification because you seem to keep misunderstanding what my issue was. I'm not sure why this has been so difficult for you to get (unless you're deliberately being obtuse), but now that you do get it I don't really have anything else to say about it... you say it was a misunderstanding of Equinox's case, I say "meh, I'm not sure I buy that".

To follow up on that point: You said you agreed that InflatablePie has a preference for being scum. What made you agree with that? (Obviously, IP has since confirmed it in thread, but what had he said or done prior to this game that led you to think that?)

Also: Who do you find scummy? Sotty is right, you've done very little scumhunting. I'd rather you ignore me grilling you for the moment and give us some reads - easier to catch your scumbuddies that way.

Klazam: I think the soft-defense/push toward IP points toward DH and Equinox being scum together; a DH flip would push Equinox a bit toward DH's alignment either way, and vice versa. However, I feel more strongly that DH and IP

aren't

scum together than that DH and Equinox are; DH's "Why aren't you voting IP?" could just have been him trying to push a fast mislynch on a townie, but it doesn't make sense for him to push LlamaFluff toward a scumbuddy sitting at L-2.

[mith]

It's not that a DH town flip reflects well on Equinox (aside from DH having a town read on Equinox); it's that the possible link between them makes Equinox a bit more likely to be scum given that DH's alignment is currently unknown. If DH were to flip town, it would remove that link as a possibility - it's just simple probability.

[mith]

Wow, that's a lot of reach.

"But no, mith plays both sides of the table with the whole "possible slip" and "don't feel strongly about it"." - I don't feel strongly that it was actually a slip; I

do

did feel better about you (with regard to you actually scumhunting instead of... whatever you were doing up until that point) spotting something like that

could

be interpreted as a slip (whatever my own feelings about it).

"Coaching..." - Eh?

"In his mind DGB is infallible." - ?? What thread are you reading?

"ALRIGHT.
NOW THE MEAT OF THINGS." - Oh goodie.

"Eludes that my case is OMGUS. Thats a good dismissal of it to try and undermine its content." - Dismissal, absolutely. A large part of your case was and is nonsense. You screamed "look at all these contradictions, OMG!", and I found that part entirely lacking in substance. (See also: Klazam's post.)

"So he likes that I like Equinox for scum because that rides in with what he was wanting." - Or... you made a good point that I agreed with? I don't see what purpose this would serve if I were scum with DGB - there's no payoff unless DGB is lynched.

"Starting right off the bat that the wagon is dodgy.
Cause thats obvious. I mean, it came from me, right? " - Actually, I was talking about the InflatablePie "Alliance" push. But whatever.

"You are going to sit there and dismiss something because you DON'T FEEL IT WAS A CONTRADICTION?" - Er, yes, when I'm looking through a case which is based on a bunch of supposed contradictions, I am going to focus on evaluating whether or not they are actually contradictions. On reading the thread/DGB again, I realized that just because you were wrong about the contradiction didn't mean you were wrong about her being scummy.

"Takes a point, NOTING IT AS SCUMMY...AND THEN USES IT TO ALLUDE TO APPLYING IT TO DH." - What? My stance on DH has been clear - I think his trying to push LlamaFluff toward IP was scummy. This was the same scumtell from DGB (pushing Llamarble to vote for SocioPath), it's a pretty obvious analogy to make. How you go from there to "Sounds like he is reaching for reasons to convince himself of other people now.", I don't have the slightest idea.

"YES. OF COURSE YOU ARE STICKING TO DH.
A DGB VOTE FROM YOU WOULD BE A GAME ENDER AT THIS POINT." - Or: I'm town and sticking with my top suspect. (Protip: Putting things in caps lock does not make them more correct.)

"DH town = Equinox scum..." - ...That is exactly the opposite of what I said.

---

I'm tempted to vote for SocioPath just because his rant is inane, but it feels town-motivated. Sotty and Thor, point taken about the DH vote not going anywhere.

Unvote: DemonHybrid
Vote: DrippingGoofball

(L-1)

[mith]

Sigh. "Tempted to vote" is rhetorical. "Sticking with my top suspect" is referring to my the previous post, where I was doing exactly that. But alas, I have but one vote, and that vote wasn't going anywhere, so I moved to the next best option.

[TheButtonmen]

Bleh, I was hoping to have more time today for this game (and other things on site what need doing), but that's not happening. I'll be away most of the weekend, though I should have some time tomorrow morning while Michelle is at a meeting to catch up on some reading.

Interesting post L-1 reactions... Klazam making a vague statement, unvoting, and going V/LA? Sevei and Llamarble, stalling? Can't wait to see what DemonHybrid does.

Mod:

You missed my vote in 278.

Noted.

[mith]

(Oh how I hate Michelle’s computer. a. It’s a Mac. b. The scroll wheel on her mouse only works for scrolling down, not up.)

DemonHybrid: “Just wanted to show that I'm not bullshitting and active lurking.” - Oh how I hate statements like this. Townies don’t need to “show” they aren’t bullshitting/active lurking, they just don’t do those things.

“Um...you like LlamaFluff and his good points, but don't like him because of gut.” - My mind and gut are often at odds; in this case, everything LlamaFluff was saying was goodposting, but I didn’t like the vibe on the whole. (I’m not sure why that deserved both an “Um” and an “Uh”. It was pretty clear to begin with.)

---

DGB seems to be grasping for a lifeline with the Thor stuff, and I’m finding it really hard to be bothered about preference meta anyway… (This argument is veering in the direction of self-meta, which DGB herself called a scumtell. Double meh.)

DGB: I thought SP made a good point wrt you negating [can’t remember who]’s town read by calling it a null tell for SP. If you think SP’s behaviour is scummy, what would you have expected him to be doing as town?

See also post 257; I want a response to those points.

[mith]

It's late, so I'll make this quick... A summary of why I think DGB is scum:

1. Reading through her early posts, I don't get the feeling that she is scumhunting; her SocioPath vote has all the weight of a random vote, yet she sticks to it doggedly and brushes aside differing reads and alternative suspects alive. (The Thor stuff since she returned from V/LA looks a bit more like scumhunting... though it also looks like lashing out in a last ditch effort shift attention off herself and/or cause confusion before she dies.)

2. The "I can't tell the Llamas apart" stuff has already been discussed... feels like an act.

3. I'm not sure what "Klazam hangs a bit lower than Sociopath on the fruit tree." even means in 178... but directing Llamarble toward SocioPath over Klazam based only on the suggested pairing sets off alarm bells.

DGB is certainly sporadic, but she doesn't act without reason - and the reasons here don't add up to town in my book.

LlamaFluff: What's the case on Sevei?

[mith]

I'll read through the DGB-wagon later, but I'm not overly suspicious of any of that bunch given the flip. Why Sevei, IP?

Of those off wagon...

Public Enemy #1: DemonHybrid. Already obvscum, his posts after the DGB wagon ramped up were dreadful... promise of wall post, still working on wall post, incomplete wall post with arbitrary point system, excuse for incompleteness of wall post, more stalling on conclusion of wall post, "Just wanted to show that I'm not bullshitting and active lurking.", "I hate my job so no conclusion for you". Meh does not even begin to cover my feeling on this.

Klazam: Early in the wagon, strongly attacking SocioPath. And then we have 283, which is almost as bad as the above series of DemonHybrid posts in fewer words.

Llamarble: Suspicious early on, and not a lot of content late. Also: "Quickread is as town, but I'll deepanalyze later." (more broken promises, my heart can't take much more of this).

LlamaFluff: Most vocal defender of DGB... which is a bit risky if he's scum, since he might have expected that to draw attention if she were lynched (which looked almost certain by the time he really started pushing her defense). So, suspect for being on the wrong side of the tracks, but his posting feels town despite that.

ChrisB: I read him as town consistently yesterday... In light of the flip, the vote for Llamarble over DGB looks bad (but that was my first instinct as well, so hard to blame him for it), and I'm a little wary of the "Should I hammer?" post.

[mith]

Obviously I think at least one of the scum is off the wagon if I'm "not overly suspicious" of those on it.

Vote: DemonHybrid

[mith]

DemonHybrid: "So...are you suspicious of the people off of the wagon BECAUSE you aren't suspicious of the people on it? Or...do you actually have reasons for suspecting who you do?" - Are you for real? Hold on, line-break required for full effect:

I JUST analyzed the relative suspiciousness of the five of you off-wagon, in the very same post where I said I wasn't suspicious of those on-wagon!

You even commented on part of it! [Rebuttal: Admittedly, that was a sarcastic paraphrase, but what you actually said wasn't much better; after repeated assurances that you were working on your readthrough/wallpost and had actual conclusions coming, you post "Because I'm fucking pissed off at my job, I'm

just

answering this:" (emphasis mine), with the implication of "[instead of living up to what my past several posts have been promising]".]

How are you not dead yet?

[mith]

DemonHybrid: You're twisting; I didn't say I was looking at the people off wagon

because

I didn't find those on wagon suspicious. What I said was that I was intended to read through the wagon later - the (I thought rather obvious, but apparently not) implication being that there wasn't much urgency to look at those players who I wasn't suspicious of, contrasted to the off-wagon group who I then went on to analyze.

---

So, on to the wagon:

The most compelling point I see against Sevei is the timing (Sotty, 362) - it could be that she believed DGB was going down no matter what she tried and wanted to be the hammer knowing how the flip would go, whereas town with suspicions on DGB may not have been in such a hurry (ChrisB?). Still, if Sevei were scum, hammering would practically be an act of resignation unless the other scum were

also

on the wagon. I think she's town.

Sotty has read town the entire game, so being on the wagon just gives her extra brownie points. Her "aw, DGB is away, I guess this wagon will have to lag" post worries me, but I think if there's scum on the wagon it's earlier than here; 5 votes is serious business, while an earlier vote could have been "pressure" without the intent to follow through (only to be trapped by the near-inevitability of the lynch as it hit L-2 and L-1).

Among those earlier voters, InflatablePie is obvtown. He turned the situation from "a couple of votes on scum" to "a wagon on scum with momentum". Thor is pretty close to confirmed as well; he certainly never seems to be looking for a way off the wagon, plus DGB's last gasp was a vote for him.

Process of elimination leaves Equinox, and the way he got on the wagon does bother me a bit: "Oh, hey, DrippingGoofball only has 3 votes. I want in." - I get the impression that this was more a pressure vote than a "lynch, rawr" vote, but by the time he comes back from V/LA DGB is at 6 and what's he going to do?

Anyway, if the Word of the Mod came down from on high and told us "Thou shalt find the scum, one on and one off", Equinox would be my best guess for the on-wagon buddy... but I am more suspicious of everyone off-wagon (except Chris B, perhaps), and in the absence of divine intervention I think it's more likely both scum are off.

---

In my team thread, Ythill looked into DGB's iso and came to his own conclusions... I'm hesitant to put much faith in anything relying on DGB-posts (she's the queen of WIFOM), but he makes some good points:

His focus is on 110, her scumlist. He doesn't think she'd put buddies in the town group with her (Equinox and InflatablePie = town), and also doesn't think she would put both buddies in the scum group (White Flag), so DemonHybrid as scum means Thor and Chris B are town. Also, we have the group of Klazam/LlamaFluff/Llamarble/Sevei/Sotty7 containing at least one scum, but Ythill assumes both to proceed:

In 168, DGB adds Sevei to the scum group (points to Sevei town).

In 178, DGB tries to direct Llamarble away from Klazam (points to Llamarble town and/or Klazam scum). Ythill sees something similar in 122 (Llamarble town and/or Sotty7 scum), but I find this one much weaker.

He comes to a conclusion of Sotty/Klazam, but I'm not sure how he's ruling out LlamaFluff (I think he got mixed up and eliminated Thor instead - basically saying what I posted about Thor above - thinking Thor was part of the group he was looking at). I'll ask him about that. I think Sotty is town, and where we diverge is when he assumes both scum are in his group of five, while I think DemonHybrid is scummy scum scum.

[mith]

(Yay, new mouse for Michelle’s compy. I can scroll up!)

LlamaFluff: The first quote is kinda taken out of context - it was part of a list of every player in the game. Anyway, yes, at that point I was slightly suspicious of her, and more suspicious of others. If I had felt that she were “playing the exact way as she does with scum”, that would have warranted an immediate vote; what I felt was a “familiar vibe”.

Second quote, again, suspicious but not at the top of my list. I felt SocioPath made a couple good points in the midst of a lot of questionable ones, and that wasn’t enough to push her to the top of the list, though I certainly wasn’t “[brushing] her off as town” (interesting choice of words, given that you earlier accuse me of making a “forced statement to be slightly suspicious of DGB as opposed to calling her a town or scum read in this situation” - those two claims don’t exactly work together). It did prompt a reread which lead to finding some more points against her (257) and my eventual vote when it became clear there wasn’t support for a DemonHybrid lynch.

(Aside: “Im starting to get a little flustered with reads here mostly due to how unreadable I always find DGB and SP, although part of my team at least thinks DGB is scum.” from LlamaFluff in the next post, 258 - thinking LlamaFluff may be projecting his own motivations onto me… wagon starts to heat up, LlamaFluff has made an earlier statement dismissing the DGB/SP argument as town vs. town, feels the need to distance himself from that statement a bit?)

Explained the “dodgy” comment in my reply to SP (the IP alliance looked like it could be a push for a mislynch); nothing to do with earlier statements, just commenting that when I first started looking at the DGB wagon/DGB ISO I had my reservations, but finding some juicy scumtells pushed those reservations aside. The move to DGB was triggered by DemonHybrid not getting any votes… trying to imply that there is any scummy motivation behind me now voting for the player who has consistently been my top suspect (and whose scumminess has further increased in the wake of the DGB flip and his reaction/lack thereof to that wagon) is… weird.

---

Not sure how much help looking at pairings will be since we only need to lynch one scum, but I guess it can’t hurt. Since I’m thinking about LlamaFluff right now: I think it’s very unlikely he and Sevei are scum together (he would probably be voting for DemonHybrid, or at least making a stronger push to distract from the Sevei wagon). Ditto everyone currently on that wagon… Sotty7-DemonHybrid… Equinox-IP… I feel like there was something else I ruled out earlier, but I don’t remember what it was, and can’t find it.

Ythill says that there wasn’t anything ruling LlamaFluff out, but there wasn’t anything in the DGB ISO pointing to him either, and based on a skim read + meta he thinks LlamaFluff is probably town.

[mith]

Been at a Memorial Day thing all day, but it doesn't look like I've missed much. There are several people that need to be talking more... Klazam's last post was a "will post tonight" (three days ago), DemonHybrid's last post included "I got out of work a bit early today so I have some time to do some analysis." (two days ago), Chris B has been V/LA all day...

[mith]

FOS: LlamaFluff

You don't think Sotty and Llamarble are both town, in a game where we only need to lynch one more scum to win... but rather than vote for either of them you throw a weak case up on a third party who you "can see flipping town"? Bweh?

Also, you had DH as probably scum for doing something that lines up with DH-town... um, am I misreading, or did that just not make any sense?

(Loving DH-LlamaFluff as our pairing now.)

[mith]

LlamaFluff: Ok, that makes more sense then. I thought you were trying to say you had read him as scum yesterday but thought he was town now, only there was a big gap where the "this is why I changed my mind" part should be.

Now, answer the part that made me go "Bweh?" - why are you voting for me?

DemonHybrid: "Tunnely"? If you're using it in the sense of "I think you're scum and the case against you didn't just magically go away because time passed while you weren't posting", then yes, I suppose I am. But I get the feeling you meant it in more of an "OMGUS" sort of way, amirite?

[mith]

Ooh, great catch. Anyone know whether scum have day talk or not? I don't see anything in the OP about day talk, so I'm inclined to switch to Chris B ASAP if they do (and likewise put him solidly in the town camp if not).

[mith]

IP - I hate to shoot down things that lead people to the correct conclusion that I'm town, but the math doesn't work like that. Before anything was known about anyone's alignment, teams with 2 scum or more are less likely (though certainly not negligible that there's at least one, given 13 teams), but that's because it's unlikely (3/13) for a team to be given a scum role in any given game. Once a player's alignment is known, the probabilities for that team's other games don't adjust based on the starting EV for the whole team, it's the other way around - the EV of scum on the team goes down or up based on the first player's flip. The other slots for the team are still independent. (We

can

use assignments within a team to our advantage, if certain players are more/less likely to choose scum. But as I said at the start of the game, I'm in White Flag because I created it, and would still have chosen it if we had been assigned a scum role.)

Lynch preference order at the moment: DemonHybrid, LlamaFluff, Klazam, Llamarble, Sevei, Equinox, Sotty7, Thor, [Chris B, Inflatable Pie]

[mith]

IP, that quote is very similar to LlamaFluff's (258)... so similar that I'm now skeptical that they are both scum; one would think Klazam would have avoided regurgitating LlamaFluff's post on the same page.

On a related note (regurgitating), Sotty and LlamaFluff have both said they're fine being lynched in recent posts... which I might see as a significant town tell if they were in any danger of being lynched, but I'm not sure how I feel about it in the current climate. My brain stopped working an hour ago, time for sleep.

(Oh, and I may not be on tomorrow - Michelle's having her orchestra party/talent show, and I have been requested to run some Mafia games for the kids. Huzzah.)

[mith]

Amrun:

Re: My case on DH. I wasn't attacking DH for attacking LlamaFluff, but rather for indirectly defending Equinox/pushing IP with the "If you're picking on Equinox, why not go after IP?" stuff. The deal with DH's omission (of an Equinox read) was that I didn't see the town-motivation in dancing around the subject, but could see possible scum motivations (one of which was Equinox-buddy, yes, but the other was merely that he was attempting to push forward with a promising mislynch on IP, who was at L-2).

Your suggestion that I should have been attacking Equinox is an odd parallel to what bugged me about DH (suggesting LlamaFluff should be attacking IP). Anyway, I certainly wasn't ignoring Equinox, though there wasn't a lot to say about him while he wasn't posting for three days (during which my attention had turned to DGB).

Re: Stance on DGB, I've already covered this in response to LlamaFluff. "But he doesn't get into the specifics of it because most of the case actually DOES have substance - and mith himself changed his mind on this later." - Not on SocioPath's case; the problem with a large part of SocioPath's initial post is "DGB is contradicting herself" with a bunch of examples that didn't (and still don't) appear to be contradictions; Klazam elaborated on this later, in fact. What I did later change my mind on was my DGB read, which went from "mildly scummy" to "top two, and DH clearly isn't getting lynched". There's no fencesitting or fabrication here; just scumhunting.

(FWIW, and with the usual disclaimers about self-meta and WIFOM... I've never been a fan of bussing, whether here or offline. IIRC, in my last game as scum I didn't so much as vote for a buddy until lylo, and then only because said buddy decided to try bussing me. I can't imagine being anything other than even less inclined to bus in a White Flag game. I'm sure my own views on bussing are partly responsible for my thinking that it's so likely at least one scum is off-wagon; I don't see what the scum would think to gain by joining a scum lynch so early.)

"I also should add that mith's insistence we look outside the wagon for scum is strange, and considering how I think he's scum who bussed late, scummy." - Confirmation bias much? My "insistence" is scummy because you think I'm scum?

---

Amrun's bold entrance does lead me to the following: I don't think Amrun is scum

unless

it's with DemonHybrid. I don't see the motivation for her as scum with anyone else - at best, I get lynched and she looks real bad tomorrow, and at worst it draws her negative attention nowish.

[mith]

DemonHybrid: You should take a course in logic. "Amrun scum implies DemonHybrid scum" is not equivalent to "DemonHybrid scum implies Amrun scum". I am saying the former. There are several possible scumbuddies for you (LlamaFluff, Llamarble, Sevei at the top, in that order), but it doesn't really matter when we can just lynch you.

You keep saying I'm tunneling. I'm not. I have been voting for you most of the game because you've been my top suspect most of the game, but I have not been ignoring everyone else (

that

would be tunneling).

Setting up future lynches? If, by some miracle and despite the constant attempts to distract from your wagon, I am able to get you lynched, and you are in fact scum,

we win the game

. There is no future lynch. If I get you lynched and you are town,

I am saying Amrun is town too

- that's the exact opposite of setting up a lynch.

Will wait to respond re: my Chris B stance until you answer Equinox's question.

[mith]

*There are several possible scumbuddies for you other than Amrun.

[mith]

Amrun: Other than the possibility that he omitted the read simply because he didn't actually

have

a read (i.e. wasn't genuinely scumhunting), in 215 I mentioned the possible conclusions I could draw from his omission (scum with Equinox, pushing mislynch on IP, or both).

I didn't ask anything of Equinox because I didn't have anything to ask her about. ~shrug~ Her response to my initial suspicion (87, before I'd caught up with the game and started in on DemonHybrid) was fine, even if I didn't totally buy it. After that, my bad feelings about her were more related to odd behaviour from other players than anything she was doing herself, and while I like to throw out comments about pairings early in the game to illicit reactions (and to note for later), I don't tend to rely on them much until I have some flips to work with (no doubt, that's part of why I find argument's like DH's - about the Equinox-IP pairing he thought LlamaFluff was suggesting - scummy).

(Also, keep in mind that when you say I spend "most of the day" arguing with DH, we're talking about two real-time days.)

I am not saying that the scum are both absolutely 100% off the wagon. What I am saying is that I find it extremely unlikely both scum are

on

the wagon (both because of bus theory, and because of strong town reads on some of those players - IP, Thor, Sotty), and given that the pool of suspects off wagon is now 4, and we have 4 tries to get this right...

Part of that feeling actually stems from me taking into account all styles of play (and specifically, the impression I have of the site meta): in the current game, bussing is almost

expected

of scum. Even the most well timed bus may not buy much town cred, so sacrificing a partner in a game with so little room for error would seem a foolish play for the scum. (Admittedly, part of why people are so wary of bussing is due to its prevalence, but I do think the setup would encourage scum to protect each other more than the norm.)

[mith]

Amrun is still suspicious for Klazam's earlier behavior, and because of that plus his attack on me I think there's a good chance he's your scumbuddy coming to the rescue. He's still in my top 4, but wouldn't be if you were to flip town.

I have an easier time believing that you're feeling out the possibility of an Amrun lynch (after your earlier "I'm not sure what to make of it" read) than that you have any genuine concern that I'm trying to set up lynches (which doesn't make sense). But I'm biased.

[mith]

At Michelle's... I thought I was going to get on this morning, but I overslept... will have to catch up tomorrow.

I expect more DH votes by then, slackers.

[mith]

DemonHybrid: "So, you don't even look at what I have to say about Chris B?" - Are you for real? I didn't have time to post more than a check-in, and hadn't read anything new... but no, apparently taking a day off to spend time with my girlfriend is worth noting to a player who would never ever disappear for days at a time, say, or stall on posting anything of substance.[/sarcasm]

I haven't hounded Chris B a lot because I think he's town, but then I don't tend to hound people over their quantity of posts so much as the quality and the timing of them. Obviously there is a big difference in someone saying they will "post tonight" and then not posting for three days vs. someone who isn't posting because of a stated V/LA (443).

Anyway, aside from the town read I already had on him, Chris B is likely town for the reason Amrun explained; he

could

have meant team talk instead of day-talk among the scumgroup (doubtful, if he comes from a site where daytalk is common), or he

could

just be clever scum planting "slips" that make us think he's town, but the way it happened doesn't seem to support either of those.

IP: I don't get the LlamaFluff-Amrun vibe... I don't see what their endgame would be for the way they're playing. They get me lynched and... then what? I guess if my personal scumlist was the consensus, they'd be in pretty bad shape and might try something desperate, but I don't think Amrun-scum would have felt that much pressure on coming into the game. It just feels to me like the only reason for him to come out swinging at me as scum is if he's chainsaw-defending DemonHybrid. Who you should be voting for.

Sotty under (not that much) pressure does not feel as town as she did earlier in the game. Also feel that if anyone has been "echoing" in our interaction it's been her (though I have certainly agreed with much of what she's said, she's followed me today on both the DemonHybrid vote and the more general "scum-off-wagon" thinking), so that comment doesn't sit right.

Llamarble and Sevei both seem to be coasting under the radar right now; Sevei's hardly contributed at all since her wagon started dissolving, except to take parting shots at them, and I'm pretty meh about the wagon analysis IP is using to rule Llamarble out. Need to reread them tomorrow.

[mith]

DH: ~bangs head on desk~

We

didn't talk about this already.

You

talked about this already (a few posts previous, so it's not like you've been discussing it ad nauseum), but I said I would respond and I did so. Now you're getting all uppity because the non-ambiguity of his post is a damn good point in Chris B's favor, and you'd like to move on from that (which blows up your case) to the much more solid ground of "but... but... he

could

be scum!"?

Here's what I think about his play: "ChrisB: I read him as town consistently yesterday... In light of the flip, the vote for Llamarble over DGB looks bad (but that was my first instinct as well, so hard to blame him for it), and I'm a little wary of the "Should I hammer?" post." Chris B didn't post much day 1, but what he posted was cogent and thorough. I found little fault with him throughout day 1 apart from being on the wrong side of the DGB wagon. Day 2, he was on V/LA, and then his

very first post

was the scum-talk post; once I looked at the MD Team Mafia thread to see that there was nothing about day-talk in there, I have basically ruled him out as scum.

Some comments on your case:

"And I don't see how no one views this as "oh shit, my buddy is at L-1. I need time to find out what to do" assuming Chris scum." - This is funny, given your own stalling at the end of day 1.

"He ends up just saying that he agrees with the lynch without a vote, rather keeping his vote on Llamarble." - Why would he do this? If he were scum with DGB, and he's going to say he agrees with the lynch, why not just hammer? He's the only one off-wagon who expresses suspicion of DGB... and that somehow makes him scummy?

"At the time, she sounded extremely convincing, because not only was she newer and not only did we assume that scum got no fakeclaims..." - Really? You're comparing an out-of-nowhere defense (of you, ironically) relying on scum having day-talk to scum having fakeclaims and using them?

"Anyway, my point is that scum can lie" - And my point is that the existence of alternative possibilities does not negate the weight of the tell. Nothing is 100%, and I don't think any of us (apart from IP, and even that may be a bit of rhetoric) are treating reads that way... but that doesn't make the reads magically vanish. This is still a rather large point in Chris B's favor.

"However, he's making up cases with weak basis, active lurking and giving spread-out mini-wall posts, all of which are scumtells." - Even if I accepted that these are scumtells (and the latter certainly is more a playstyle indicator than anything), I don't think he's "active lurking" (which to me means "posting lots without actually saying anything of substance"; with Chris B, I see infrequent but content-filled posts), and I'm not seeing where you've made much of an argument for him "making up cases with weak basis". You did say "In fact, with his weak pushing on Equinox, me..." in the post where you voted him, but there's no elaboration on that point.

Your case seems to focus more on "hey, let's ignore these things that point to Chris B being town, because he

could

be scum anyway" than anything.

"Wow. So, yeah, lets not even focus on the argument." - ~snerk~

---

On Llamarable: Still in my lynch pool for his day 1 behaviour (off wagon + DGB interaction with him), despite Ythill's disagreement.

Some good scumhunting to start day 2, but I'm pretty meh on him making a big flashy (entirely contentless) pairing graph and then not really doing anything with it since (in fact, apart from his most recent post I'm missing where he's discussed pairings at all).

Llamarable: What does your "network" look like at the moment? What pairings have you ruled out, and why? Why are you still voting Amrun instead of DH?

---

On Sevei: No big change in my read of the day 1 stuff... She hammered, and it carries more weight for me than if one of the other off-wagon players had been the hammer, since she was arguing for a Llamarble/DGB connection (that is, it doesn't read like just an attempt to look good via bussing); that doesn't clear her, but I still see it as a point in her favor.

Up to her ISO 15/19, she feels pretty genuine to me... but the OMGUS at her wagon is a negative, even taking into account that her top suspect (Llamarble) is in that group. She doesn't seem to have much reasoning for the others on the wagon being suspect other than that they are on the wagon (i.e. the faulty probability argument), which makes the former post feel like lashing out at her wagon indiscriminantly, only turning her attention back to top suspect Llamarble in the next post, after the wagon starts to dissolve.

Still leaning town, but I want to ask: Sevei, do you have any reason to suspect the others on your wagon, other than that they were on it?

[mith]

Thor: You might have a point, if not for the fact that he pointed that out himself immediately after placing the vote. It doesn't really matter who DH-scum goes after if he's going to get lynched eventually anyway; I think the linked post shows his motivation here - he's trying to buy himself town cred.

My own hesitation on a DH lynch at the moment is LlamaFluff's 710, which gives me the "DH is going to flip town and LlamaFluff is going to try to push through some mislynches on that basis" creeps.

DH is just so damn scummy, though. Like how he starts a post with "But you have nothing to say on the scummier parts of his play?" and then proceeds to respond to me talking about what DH calls the scummier parts of Chris B's play. Or the incredible 726.

Have to run now, interview this afternoon.

[mith]

DH: "Point out the post of what you mean."

...

......

You mean the post which started with "But you have nothing to say on the scummier parts of his play?". That I just quoted from said post? You can't figure out which post I was talking about? 724? That is a real post, right? I'm not imagining things?

In that post, you gripe at me for ignoring your case... then continue with a bunch of quotes where I am breaking down your case and responding specifically to what you call scummy. Comedic gold indeed.

Re: 726, she clearly wasn't calling Chris B's case bad there, other than in calling it wrong (I suppose any case is "bad" in that sense, but that's not very meaningful - there are often solid cases on innocent players, because innocent players sometimes do scummy things. Those cases are wrong alignment-wise, but I wouldn't say that makes them "bad" cases.)

Amrun: You haven't talked much/at all about your case on me since I responded to it... last you said was "I like mith's answers to my questions and now I'm confused." I mean, I assume you still think I'm scum (if you aren't scum yourself) since you're still voting for me, but I'm not really sure

why

at this point.

[mith]

Can someone read my 759 and DH's 762 and either confirm that he's floundering scum talking nonsense or otherwise explain how his reply (particularly the last line) is in any way grounded in reality or the context of what we were talking about? I'm getting pretty bored with arguing with him, and don't understand why he isn't dead yet.

Llamarble, I want answers to the questions I asked in 722 - in particular, why you think Amrun is scum with anyone but DH.

(Freudian slip in 773 when he calls the Sevei wagon not good?)

[mith]

I was about to shoot off another snarky reply at DemonHybrid, but I realized that the inability to follow the thread of an argument is not, on its own, necessarily a scumtell - I only need to look back to the last game I played and the trainwreck that was Kmd to remind myself of that. I think there are more compelling reasons to think DemonHybrid is scum (summarized here), and this argument is just distracting from that.

Anyway, here's a summary of our Chris B discussion, as I see it; I'll try to keep the sarcasm to a minimum, but sometimes I just can't help myself.

DH 588/589 - DH calls me out for "a lack of hounding" of Chris B for his mere 15 posts, coming to the conclusion that "mith's notification of ChrisB's lurky and scummy behavior but unwillingness to explore that really shows a connection between the two."

Already, I'm unsure what he's referring to with the latter comment. I did point out that Chris B was V/LA, and noted that Chris B being off wagon + the "should I hammer?" post looked bad given the DGB flip, so maybe that's what he's talking about?

I wait for an answer to Equinox's questioning about Chris B's slip (which DemonHybrid tries to brush off as null - first as him possibly meaning "team talk", second has him being coached in what to say to look town), then am away for Saturday.

DH 650 - DH tries to make something of this absence.

mith 701 - I am understandably annoyed at the comment, particularly given the irony of being called out for not responding to something by DH, given his previous record in this game. I move on from that to explain why I haven't hounded Chris B:

a. I think he's town, and haven't had much reason to doubt that read throughout the game.
b. I don't hound people for their post count anyway, so long as they are posting regularly and with content.
c. Chris B hadn't posted from the start of day 2 to his "slip" post because of a stated V/LA, and the day talk stuff has further reinforced my town read.

DH 712 - Apparent annoyance at me responding to the original point of contention (and in doing so, I have "totally cleverly avoided talking about his play")... damned if I don't respond, damned if I do. Then a subtle shift from "Why isn't mith hounding Chris B for the lurky and scummy things he noted?" to "Why else is he town?".

mith 722 - I point out that while he may have already discussed it and recanted,

I

hadn't discussed it, and was doing so as promised. I then quote to where I have talked about his play and why I think he's town, before delving into DemonHybrid's case.

The conclusion here is: There are some things I don't like about Chris B, mainly related to the DGB flip, but his posts read as genuinely town and the day talk thing is unlikely to come from scum. I have him as town. DemonHybrid's case attempts to brush aside the "slip" as null, and his list of scumtells to me both because I don't think everything on that list is a scumtell (in fact, his characterization of "spread-out mini-wall posts" coming from Chris B as a sign that he needs time to put together fake cases is something of an ad hominem of Chris B's cases, sidestepping the need to actually analyze the content of the cases), and I don't think it has been established that he is doing the others.

DH 724 - This is the post which begins with "But you have nothing to say on the scummier parts of his play? You know, how his posting fits in more with active lurking? And how he avoided voting DGB?"... all of which I have talked about in the previous post.

He also invokes Sotty here: "Also, ask Sotty about how his cases lack substance. And his vote on me is just lulz-worthy." This is a really interesting comment, and one that got a bit lost in my utter disbelief at what he tries to do in his next post:

In the post where DemonHybrid first votes Chris B (628), he states "

In fact, with his weak pushing on Equinox, me

AND his fencesitting on DGB along with his lurkiness, I'm willing to vote him over mith" (emphasis mine). It is this first part which I ask about in 722: "and I'm not seeing where you've made much of an argument for him "making up cases with weak basis"... there's no elaboration on that point."

Rather than responding directly to that, by pointing out where Chris B's cases have been "weak", he makes yet another vague statement... now implying that his case on Sotty "[lacks] substance", but again with no elaboration.

DemonHybrid's attempt to enlist Sotty for his cause fails miserably, as Chris B quotes Sotty's own analysis of Chris B's vote for her. "He also has the best vote on me out of the three, case wise at least. I get the sense that he is trying and it feels genuine if off base." DemonHybrid tries to shift the semantics here, but while Sotty is clearly saying the case is "off base" (wrong), and one might even call a case "bad" if it's wrong alignment-wise, no possible reading of that post could come to the conclusion that Sotty thinks Chris B's case is "weak" or "[lacks] substance".

mith 759 - Here, I elaborate on my previous post, pointing out what he did in 724 (calling me out for having nothing to say about Chris B's play in the same post where he quotes and responds to me talking in some depth about Chris B's play).

DH 762 - His response to this is "Also, your tone was that of assumed Chris B confirmed town. Get real." Which apparently means I haven't

really

been talking about Chris B's play all along, or something? Yeah, I'm still confused.

---

tl;dr, for Equinox:

The argument between DemonHybrid and I over Chris B has shifted from "mith isn't hounding Chris B" (true, but understandable) to "mith is avoiding talking about Chris B's play, why is he town apart from this slip thing I want to stop talking about?" (false, and already answered) to "mith isn't talking about the stuff I say is scummy about Chris B" (patently false) to "mith is assuming Chris B is confirmed town" (not confirmed, no, but it's certainly a strong read). This might be a mild scumtell (harder to keep track of what you're arguing about if you don't believe in your side of it), but he could just be bad at this sort of thing. What I do find scummy out of all of it is:

a. His flinging of accusations that he doesn't even attempt to elaborate on (the claim that Chris B is making "weak" cases).
b. His hypocrisy in several areas, including point a (calling Chris B scum for making weak cases with no justification for that statement is, itself, a weak case) and the active lurking accusation (see DemonHybrid's play at the end of day 1).

As for why I think DemonHybrid-scum might have attacked Chris B: It could be as simple as thinking he had a case (and thinking he could nullify the slip as team talk). It could be a desire to manufacture town points (which is working to some degree - both you and Thor are leaning town on him because you don't see why he would do it as scum). I think he gave himself away on this by immediately invoking it as a defense.

I'm not opposed to a LlamaFluff wagon, but I'm not sure what the point is in placing a vote there at this point. We've got a soft deadline tomorrow, and two viable wagons. Make a choice.

[mith]

DH: This is what bothers me... taking things I say totally out of context and constructing a strawman out of them:

"The conclusion here is: There are some things I don't like about Chris B, mainly related to the DGB flip,"

vs.

"The conclusion here is: There are some things I don't like about Chris B, mainly related to the DGB flip,

but

..."

My stance, from the start of day 2, has been "Chris B's position off wagon is bad,

but outweighed by other things

". He's obvious town to me because of those other things... and however many times you want to claim they are null tells, I'm just not buying that scum-Chris B, whether on his own or prompted by his team or scumbuddy, threw in that kind of fake "slip" in that context just in case maybe someone picked up on it and decided it cleared him.

"And again, you didn't talk about the scummier parts of the play. You just said stuff like "Oh, well, that's not necessarily scummy", "Even if he DID do this", to try to warp my argument into being falsified and protect Chris." -

That is me talking about it.

I just don't agree with what you're trying to sell. (This argument doesn't get any less stupid as you repeat it, you know.)

"I'm not invoking Sotty. I'm bringing up an example. Another scummy way to twist my argument around." - Way to turn the conversation to semantics and avoid the actual point: That you made a claim (Chris B is making weak cases) and have provided

no

elaboration on that point. That isn't scumhunting.

---

Ugh, there's a lot I don't like on these recent pages... Amrun's "I do agree that this DH issue will not go away until he dies." and "Your town flip will help my cases so oh well." are no better than LlamaFluff's similar earlier comment, though I still don't see DH-town + Amrun-scum making sense; Llamarble is still dodging the whole pairing analysis thing; LlamaFluff's most recent argument for DH-town...

Actually... LlamaFluff: Let's say we're in some hypothetical totally implausible alternate reality where you and DH are scumbuddies, and one of you getting lynched ends the game. What would you be doing to "stop the wagon" other than repeatedly calling him town and voting for his attackers?

[mith]

I'm not sure what they're talking about - I've certainly been focused on him as my top suspect, but I've been looking at and giving reads on others as well.

[mith]

I'm too tired to fully express my level of displeasure with people jumping off DemonHybrid, but: BLEH.

Already had a town lean on Sevei, and the sudden compromise wagon on her blossoming out of nowhere, particularly given the timing of her being replaced, stinks. I won't be voting for Sevei.

Amrun: If it were anyone else, yeah, pretty much. As it is, I think it actually points to you being town, because short of some sort of genius subtle gambit attempt to soil the DemonHybrid wagon I don't see you doing that as his scumbuddy, and I also don't think you're scum with anyone else, so... PoE. Doesn't mean I have to like it.

[mith]

LlamaFluff's Sevei vote is terrible... It seems to have escaped LlamaFluff's mind while making his "But

I'm

giving reasons for my reads, and I'm not

just

arguing for on wagon players" defense that Sevei was

on

the DGB wagon, and I find it really hard to believe that someone scumhunting and trying to figure out the game would forget that - particularly given that his original day 2 reason for Sevei-town had to do with her switching to DGB.

Looking back at his thoughts on Sevei, I'm getting the feeling that he was hoping the early Sevei wagon would go through without getting his hands dirty; see 501 where he feels the need to argue with IP's doubts over the Sevei vote.

Anyway, otherwise he seems pretty consistently in the Sevei-town camp, going so far as arguing against a renewed Sevei wagon (583)... until he puts Sevei at L-1 with some meh information-about-DH justification?

Would still rather lynch DemonHybrid[/obvious], and I can't believe he's being let off the hook. But I would vote for LlamaFluff over any other option.

[mith]

~poke~ Where is everybody? I know it's the weekend, but we're losing time here.

[mith]

Meh, working 8 to 6 is going to make keeping up in this game a pain.

DemonHybrid: Why did you think you were at L-1? Who did you think was voting for you?

(Trying to work out whether DemonHybrid genuinely believed he was at L-1 when he was calling for a hammer, and if so whether he would bluff there. I'm inclined to think not on the latter - calling for hammer feels like a stronger town-tell than the earlier lynch-bargaining-while-not-under-pressure that LlamaFluff and Sotty were doing. Not so sure on the former.)

Equinox/singersinger: LlamaFluff is right that you shouldn't rule me out based on the number of revealed scum on my team; unless alignments in the four games

weren't

assigned independently (and we have no reason to believe that) my team's spot in this game had the same probabilities as everyone other team's. See also: 518. Right conclusion, bad reasoning.

[mith]

Hm.

I don't particularly like singersinger's entrance into the game - the confusion about how many scum are in the game and the whole role PM thing feels a bit staged.

On the other hand, I have a hard time believing DH saw a Sotty vote and that made him confused about the vote count... he's made mention of her "tunneling", so he knew where her vote had been placed.

Meh. Vote stands for now. Michelle is here, so I'm off for the night. If I get up early enough, I'll read through singersinger in depth and try to figure out whether I'm willing to lynch there - I felt pretty strongly that Sevei was town after the wagon formed there, but now I'm less sure.

[mith]

I'm still a bit paranoid that I'm letting DemonHybrid-scum off the hook, but the more I thought about it overnight the more his reaction to the possibility of being hammered felt town. Don't think I'll be voting for him today. Equinox and Chris B are strong town reads... feel pretty good about Thor and Sotty as well.

Amrun... I need to reread. The chainsaw argument still has a lot of weight with me - I don't see what's gained outside a Amrun-DemonHybrid pairing, and no one pushing Amrun-scum has provided any rationale for that.

That leaves the Llamas, and I have a strong preference for a LlamaFluff vote, so that's where I'm going for now. Llamarble may be active lurking, though - I feel like he's been posting a lot but not actually saying anything of substance... giving reads with weak/no backing... his pairing stuff has mostly been fluff so far - anyone can post a graph, but I want some justification for those eliminations (and, conversely, some justification for thinking Amrun is scum with someone other than DemonHybrid).

VOTE: LlamaFluff

[mith]

I've said a lot about LlamaFluff already. Nothing I said yesterday as changed: He defended DGB (pretty strongly), then tried to push the bussing angle, his vote for me was weakly justified and didn't make sense in the context of "one of Sotty/Llamarble definitely scum", possibly setting up mislynches in post (710) on the basis of a likely DH mislynch (a stronger point for me now that I'm feeling the DH-town vibe), and of course there's the bad Sevei vote.

With Llamarble, it's more that I want substance from him. I'm trying to be more conscious of him sliding under the radar, because so far I don't have much of a feel for him at all - the big point against him for me is where his vote has been placed (off DGB, on singersinger). He's my number two as much by PoE as anything; he hasn't done anything that makes me think he's town.

[mith]

LlamaFluff: "So half of your case is me defending and basing reads of DH-town which you now agree with?" - Uh... there are five things in that post, one of which is tangentially related to you claiming a DH-town read...

Anyway, bad-at-math rhetorical BS aside, my point on 710 is obviously not to do with you saying "DH town" but the whole "aw shucks, I guess it wouldn't be the end of the world if he were lynched guys, just remember that I thought he was town, mkay?" feel of it - subtle pushing of that wagon with the agenda of setting up future bad lynches. (Not surprised Amrun disagrees with this being scummy, since she posted something very similar later.)

---

Aside from the lack of "confirmable" (insofar as I can at least look at something and see where he's coming from, even if I don't agree with eliminating/keeping a possible pairing) justification, what bugs me about Llamarble's little graph at the moment is that:

"The ruleouts are based on votes showing intent to lynch.
Hence a lot of possibilities for unwagoned folks."

is veering in the direction of "Let's lynch the people we suspect the least, because they have the most possibilities!", which is obviously a dumb way of going about things.

Llamarble:

1. What is your case on Amrun, apart from her having the most possible pairings on your graph?
2. Why would Amrun act how she did on her entrance into the game if she were scum with anyone other than DemonHybrid? (That is, why wouldn't she just let the leading wagon continue rather than chainsawing the driving force behind it?)

[mith]

Sorry guys, 10 hour work days are kicking my butt right now (that, and Michelle came over to watch the Game of Thrones finale). The Sotty/Amrun wall is making my eyes bleed... will read it tomorrow night when I have more time. (Llamarble's posts don't make any sense either, but I don't think the tired is to blame there.)

[mith]

Eh... not impressed with Sotty's case. Agree that 1051 is a little weird, but otherwise Amrun's stance on Sevei/singer (and InflatablePie) seems clear, and I can't help feeling that her mentions of me in particular have an agenda ("Why did you drop your mith case?"; "Would you lynch mith today?"; "Amrun's best posting comes with her rationale for her mith vote..."; "I have no real understanding why she dropped her mith vote/case..."), perhaps feeling out the possibility of a mislynch on me (or perhaps subtly pushing Amrun away from Llamarble?).

Amrun: Could you elaborate on "First, it was just his lack of vote

and his reasoning for it

which I didn't like." (emphasis mine)? What about my reasoning bothered you? (Just caught my eye reading through Sotty's case... may be totally irrelevant, but worth asking anyway.)

[mith]

"This has been gone over more than one time, but early game there is a whole lot of passive comments at DGB that really dont take solid stances." - Indeed, we've been over this (435, 585).

"Sure he is posting but go back and look at it, almost everything is just about DH and has been since the start of the second day." - ?? Quite a few of my day 2 posts were about DH... because he was my top suspect, I wanted him lynched, and we were going back and forth arguing. Almost everything? That's blatantly false.

"...and keeps suggesting Amrun is scum too." - Er, no... pretty much the opposite. I didn't (and don't) think Amrun is scum unless with DH, and didn't (and don't) have any interest in lynching her.

"He is saying that because I have been defending DH the entire game, that im scum." - Huh? Where have I said that?

"But people like mith who say he is scum did not even BOTHER to listen to a thing I was saying about him." - What were you saying about him?! You haven't actually said much of anything about DH other than constantly repeating that he's town. (258, more likely town, not a strong read, no why; 444, he's town because his attacking you day one is "a bit of a town tell"... not something I can really do much with, having no meta on anyone; and then a whole lot of repeating that he's town and not in your lynch pool until very late in the day, 866, some pairing analysis which I did directly question you about.)

To summarize my case (or that part of it, anyway): LlamaFluff has been very vocal about DH-town throughout, but as far as actually

defending

him, not so much (I didn't even realize how little reasoning he had given for his read on DH until ISOing him just now)... yet when he goes to L-2, he's weary of defending him and "he may not be the worst possible lynch". I just don't see any possible town motivation for that post. We weren't near deadline, we weren't in compromise mode... and until a few posts prior, DemonHybrid's wagon was one of four, and only leading by a single vote. Town in that position redouble their efforts to push things away from their town reads - they don't roll over and suggest that it won't be the worst thing in the world.

[mith]

More LlamaFluff stuff ahead; I'm on the verge of tunneling but 1149 is too bad to ignore... Tomorrow I'll be looking more closely at Llamarble, Sotty... maybe the Thor/Amrun back and forth (though initial impression is town/town, which is where I was leaning anyway).

"Enough of your posts were structured such that she was the second pick to DH it seemed." - Sotty already called you out on this one, but it's offbase enough that it needs further highlighting. Amrun has never been my second choice, and it would take a pretty serious twisting of my posts to reach the conclusion that she has.

"Partially due to not being able to word my read well, but also due to a feeling that the only thing I could word (pairings) would get the response it did from you of "well you can be with him" which lets you ignore my points for him being town." - So, let me get this straight. You accuse me of "not even BOTHER[ing] to listen to a thing you were saying about him"... but when I ask what you were saying about him, you switch to making excuses for you not justifying your read? And apparently this is my fault, because if you

had

justified your read, I would ignore you? (Nevermind that I really wasn't ignoring you; when you make an argument of "DH can only be scum with Sevei", even if I totally bought into that argument - and of course I didn't, since I viewed Amrun as another possibility - if I can't rule

you

out as a possibility, I can't even logically reach a stance of prefering a Sevei lynch, much less reach the conclusion of DH-town. Shying away from my scumreads on the basis of them "only" having two possible partners is as stupid as voting for non-suspects who haven't been wagoned because they have the most possible partners.)

"For the most part defending these wagons wasnt going so well either, yet the attacks came in such a way that if one got lynched, the other would get written as probably town. At the stage of the game nowhere near a lylo situation, yes I am fine with one mislynch to take another off the table." - Seeing the potential to gain information from a mislynch is one thing; being "fine" with a mislynch

when there is still plenty of time to turn that mislynch into something with a better chance of hitting scum

(and probably comparable, if not better, information if you're wrong) is another. I'm not refusing to look at this from your standpoint - I just don't believe a pro-town player would take that stand in that situation, making a statement encouraging what you believe is a mislynch.

[mith]

Warning, long post ahead. There are some questions scattered throughout.

Llamarble:

Caught this while reading Sotty, actually, and her conversation with Thor - Thor says in 148 that "I consider the work he took in actually bothering to research that a bit for himself speaks reasonably well for him." The change from that sort of research to Llamarble's posts today is dramatic.

Don't like much about his early play, despte that willingness to research - the self-vote, sticking with that self-vote while making a serious post with some reads and FoSs, then sheeping the InflatablePie wagon...

After a bit of scumhunting (mostly drowned out in arguing with Sotty)...

269 - The Thor vote is pretty bad. It wasn't so long before that his "strongest read" was a town read on Thor, yet he's quick to reverse that on the basis that Thor

could

be scum.

Llamarble, how much experience did you have with Thor before this game? (Most of the rest of the case here looks like playstyle stuff - the same stuff Thor and Amrun are currently arguing about.)

(Also, Thor: Curious about your comment in 1155 in light of that vote; explain? He used meta to clear you, so that makes him town... even though he then voted for you anyway?)

Possible stalling at the end of day 1. Llamarble's behaviour toward the wagon fits fine with him being DGB's scumbuddy... the points in his favor for me so far have nothing to do with his posting (DGB's behaviour toward him).

388 - "It seems very likely to me at least one scum was not on the wagon." is a mild town tell (not much benefit to off-wagon scum making this statement), and makes me have serious doubts about a both-off scum pairing involving Llamarble.

414 - Llamarble, why did you switch to Sevei here? You made cases on both Klazam and Sevei, and suggested that as your best guess for the pairing, but you were already voting for Klazam and I don't see anything suggesting a preference for Sevei in this post.

521 - Back to Klazam, with some town points to Sevei... which I would take as another town tell if not for him listing Sevei second in his very next post (and switching back to Sevei later in the day).

781 - Steps around my Amrun question (why is Amrun scum with anyone other than DH?), saying he "would not be stunned" by other pairings; does give reasoning why a few pairings make sense (counterwagon), but doesn't discuss Amrun's play in light of those pairings. I

still

haven't gotten a satisfactory answer on this, and I find this particularly troubling in the context of his supposed interest in possible pairings.

Summary:

If all I had to go on was day 2, I think I would lean town; in the context of bad/lazy play on either side, I'm thinking his day 2 play may have just been an attempt to come out of the gate strong after going down a scumbuddy. Happy with my current placement of him; there's no outright fabrication like I'm seeing from LlamaFluff, but the scales are definitely tilted toward scum, whereas I have mild to strong town reads on everyone else. I would be shocked if neither Llama is scum.

---

Sotty:

Nothing pinging in her early posts. She's asking good questions of Llamarble in particular... that argument doesn't feel like scum/scum, either (especially with Llamarble's return vote and DGB's reaction to that).

137 - Sotty, why was Equinox contesting DGB's town read a "bad thing" for you? Your reaction to that bothers me a bit (in light of Equinox saying DGB is probably scum, there).

149 - Maybe a bit of hedging on Klazam? 142 was more solidly a town read, and "I got some pings from him when I read the thread." suggests more of a trend than what Sotty has posted about Klazam to this point (one mention, not liking his opening vote).

182 - I must have skimmed over this when it happened, because I don't remember this post at all. What changed between 173/174 and this? 173 suggests SocioPath's picking-this-game/town reasoning was "over the top?" (also a bit odd after harping on the uselessness of Llamarble's questions so much early on), but it's a bit of a jump to go from there to "I'm admittedly tempted to switch to Socio..." with no additional reasoning, even without a "I'm admittedly tempted to switch to Socio." in between.

252 - The vote post. Since 182, she hasn't really said anything about Socio or DGB to give insight on why she's making this vote, and her response to the Socio case is "interesting". She also words this as a vote for "pressure", so it's possible she thought she could do a bit of distancing and then jump off (though of course she doesn't jump off when DGB returns and responds).

All that said, I'm still having a hard time seeing a reason for her to bus here. The vote count was 4-4 before her switch, and while it's a bit befuddling to think Sotty-town switched from Llamarble (who she had been going after pretty hard all day) to DGB (who she hadn't really expressed any suspicion of) when they were tied, it's even harder for me to see her making that switch to a scumbuddy.

405 - Day 2... Sotty, can you explain why you were willing to disregard IP's wagon argument for Klazam-town, but used his essentially identical argument for Llamarble-town to downgrade that read?

538 - Don't really care for the "Amrun replacing in makes that slot scummy" argument (and Amrun addresses the gaping hole in the argument), but also the way that comment is worded is off in the context of Sotty's other posts; Amrun is listed here in the same position as Sotty's previous listing (second) - even if we take Sotty's previous post (agreeing with my lynch order) as moving to a DH/LlamaFluff/Amrun order, the "much more suspicious" feels hyperbolic.

622 - The "mith is echoing me" comment still gets a "huh?".

681 - This is the post that drew my attention when I made the comment in 701 that "Sotty under (not that much) pressure does not feel as town as she did earlier in the game." Having trouble putting my finger on this... it's just that her rationalization of her actions feels a bit frantic or something.

Summary:

There are some things that bug me about Sotty's play, but not enough to outweigh the DGB vote. Additionally, for Sotty to be scum, her partner would likely also have to be on the DGB wagon (generally arguing for lynching off the DGB wagon and specifically pushing strongly for each of them at some point), and that's difficult for me to believe.

[mith]

Amrun, what do you think of LlamaFluff's recent posts, specifically the parts I have pointed out as simply not true?

After waking up again to nothing from Llamarble, I think I'll do more than consider switching. I really don't like LlamaFluff's posting, but I'll concede that it's possible he's just got a bad read on me and is grasping at straws trying to justify it. Llamarble just isn't doing anything.

UNVOTE: LlamaFluff
VOTE: Llamarble

[mith]

...what just happened here?

[mith]

Ugh, this game. Double ugh if Sotty is screwing with us and I'm wasting my time writing this post. I need sleep.

Llamarble somehow went from L-1 to still alive without saying anything of substance all day... It's been a while since I've been this flabbergasted in a Mafia game. (I am going to be particularly annoyed with you lot if it's DemonHybrid/Llamarble, the way these last two days have ended.)

LlamaFluff sticking to his guns, even when they're pointed at me, makes me feel

slightly

better about him. His jumping on either wagon wouldn't have been a huge "Hi, I'm scum" signal, and the defense of Llamarble in particular knocks down the likelihood he is scum with anyone else (though LlamaFluff may just be playing a subtle scum game, and it's possible he thought Llamarble/Sotty would go down without his help).

Not at all happy with Amrun, from making the deal with Thor to switching to Sotty to the post-hammer reaction. Need to reread and see if I'm missing something here.

DemonHybrid's hammer was bad... otherwise his posts read genuine. Paranoid about DH/Llamarble because of the end of today, but still leaning town overall.

Thor's switch to Llamarable reads genuine as well, and the switch back makes sense from his perspective, so no big change here. Still confident in my Equinox and Chris B town reads (though I'm curious why Chris B felt the need to emphasize the correct vote count - whether Thor intended it or not, there was the possibility of another information-gaining fake hammer situation).

The double Llama is my top pairing, but if it's not that I'm lost. I hope my team starts talking, I could use some second/etc. opinions.

[mith]

Hoopla finally chimed in overnight (Ythill and Yos are sadly silent) with some opposing views:

LlamaFluff - She buys into 593, and says she plays similarly as scum; she doesn't think Fluff would have gotten caught defending DGB (because of the risk of being the very next lynch).

[I disagree for several reasons, but the main one is bussing in White Flag != bussing in a normal game, and particularly if Fluff has an established pattern of bussing behaviour following that pattern in this game would almost be suicide, whereas defending keeps a little hope of the wagon dissolving and allows him to make the "I would have bussed" meta defense if she dies.]

Llamarble - She also agrees with Fluff's logic in 1302, and I find this more persuasive. I'm having a hard time seeing Marble as scum with anyone but Fluff himself.

Chris B - She doesn't understand why we're so quick to rule him out as scum; says he's clearly a solid player, and has a team supporting him in his posts, so a gambit on the daytalk stuff isn't out of the question. She also adds that there are several possibile pairings for him, which she feels trumps behavioral tells at this point.

[He remains my strongest town read. The context of the daytalk comment just doesn't feel at all put on.]

I'm holding off on voting until I at least reread Amrun, but I'm still sold on Fluff-scum. (Though it worries me that both my teammates who have weighed in think he's town. Either they're wrong, or I'm wrong about one of my strong reads, because there isn't a pairing that makes sense otherwise.)

[mith]

I'm with Amrun on the Nicodemus thing... possible slip (and a very good catch for an early game wagon starter, even if it was on the wrong person), but hammer reaction points to DH-town.

Haven't had any time today to read... maybe tomorrow, though I'll be out quite a bit. Is there any reason at this point not to claim teams? I'm dubious on trying to catch scum by team-meta, but at least it would reduce my confusion when referencing team-thinking.

[mith]

Llamarble and DemonHybrid: I have been asking this for a long time now, and I still haven't a satisfactory answer from anyone - Why would Amrun chainsaw me so hard if she were scum with anyone other than DH (which now seems pretty unlikely, given DH's vote)?

Skimmed a little bit of Amrun's ISO, and have also asked Hoopla to take a look when she gets a chance, but I'm just not seeing it. I think it's Fluff/Marble or Fluff/Equinox.

VOTE: LlamaFluff

[mith]

I am at those two pairs from PoE. I don't think Chris B, DH, or Amrun are scum, for reasons I have explained. I don't think Marble/Equinox makes sense from Equinox's reaction to the wagon yesterday. So it's you with one of them. QED.

Same question to you, Fluff, since you are now suggesting Amrun-scum (which is a pretty big shift from your day 2 stance): How do you explain her entrance to the game?

(My team isn't saying much of anything right now. Hoopla popped in to give the thoughts I summarized above, but otherwise they've been silent since they died in or finished their games.)

[mith]

Amrun: It's the amount of waiting Equinox did. One vote away from losing, I don't see scum calmly pointing out "That's L-1", then sitting around for a few posts/several hours saying nothing against the lynch.

[mith]

Is that really what passes for "deepanalyze" these days?

Tell me how Amrun + Fluff makes sense in light of their day 2 play (mostly Amrun's day 2 play). Are you willing to vote Fluff? Why do you think Equinox is town?

How many fingers am I holding up?

Amrun, Equinox, Fluff: Why are you not voting?

[mith]

...yeah, don't see my vote going anywhere.

The pairing argument is basically "well he

could

be scum with Amrun, even though he's probably not". I have a really hard time believing that Fluff was even a little bit surprised that I haven't voted for Amrun, after we argued about my stance on Amrun yesterday (1146, 1175; after he made the erroneous claim that I "keep suggesting Amrun is scum"). I think I've been clear in my stance on Amrun - she's done some things which I find suspect (the biggest being the reaction to DH's hammer yesterday), yet the entrance into the game shouts "scum with DH, or town", and I haven't seen much reason to doubt that read.

(That said, I'm starting to think Fluff-Amrun is a little less out of the question from Fluff's behaviour. There's a similarity in the Amrun-DH argument from day 2 and the mith-Amrun argument above, basically ruling me out as scum with everyone else... but if he were to apply the same pairing logic here that he were using before, it would seem the logical conclusion would be an Amrun vote, suggesting he may be selectively applying that logic and avoiding the Amrun vote.)

The nightkill argument... not much I can say there other than "WIFOM". Fluff is being a

tad

hyperbolic with the "outside of IP they all wanted him dead" comment (there have only been two kills outside of IP... and of course it ignores that if I were scum the IP kill itself doesn't make much sense).

[mith]

Fluff: It makes a great deal of sense for you (/your partner) to kill Thor if...

a. You're scum with Chris.
b. You're scum with Marble or Amrun, and the kill was more to do with your partner than yourself.
c. You wanted to be able to make a WIFOM argument that it doesn't make any sense for you to kill Thor (while in 1373 giving motivation for almost everyone else still alive to do so).
d. You're scum with pretty much anyone other than Chris and felt Chris was more lynchable than Thor. (See Also: Chris creeping up Fluff's list, for no apparent reason.)
e. Some combination of the above.

[I can just as easily speculate on the other kills; I'm not particularly familiar with either player, but just based on what I've seen in this game I'd say SocioPath was every bit as unpredictable and viewed as town as InflatablePie; and that it would make no sense for me, if I were scum, to kill IP (who had a strong town read on me - which I know I, and I suspect most players including you, would care more about than whether the target agreed with my reads)... while of course not only did IP list you as one of his top suspects, he was trying rather hard to get you lynched at the end of that day.

But I don't need to know exactly

why

you made those kills; I'm pretty confident that you're scum based on your actions during the day.]

---

DemonHybrid: Why do you think Fluff is town? (Fluff has spent most of the game not being able to defend his vote for me beyond "gut" - even giving that as a reason for voting me in 1368 - yet you call him town in the same post that you call out Amrun for voting on gut.)

[mith]

Fluff: I want to see some reasoning for those pairings. I'm also interested in your stance on Equinox - you say he's "probably not" scum, yet have him in your top pairing; meanwhile, you include Amrun in your trio of lynch options, yet have every pairing with Amrun as less likely or on the same level as the corresponding Equinox pair.

Amrun: 1377's "I've blitzed you as scum before and I could do it again if I wanted to..." sets off alarm bells for me; could you summarize what happened in that game?

[mith]

Knew I'd be getting back late tonight, didn't know it'd be

this

late. About to crash, quick follow-up:

Fluff: 1393, Equinox, go.

Amrun: I think I'm missing something here still. Your earlier post implied that you weren't scum because if you were you could blitz DH again if you wanted; but 1399 (the last bit, "plenty of bad ones") doesn't jive with the idea that you could fool him whenever you wanted. (And even if it did... you're basically saying if he thinks you're scum you can't be because you would fool him if you were scum... yeah, don't like that.)

[mith]

Fluff: If you're town, I won't be voting for DH or Marble. I don't see any viable partners for either of them outside of you.

Not much else to say tonight. Still happy with my vote.

[mith]

Equinox: What about Llamarble's behaviour makes him an unlikely Fluff-buddy?

(For that matter, why did you feel the need to argue that you aren't Fluff's scumbuddy? If you're town, you should

know

you're not Fluff's buddy - why would you switching on Fluff affect

your

thinking?)

Here's where I'm at right now: I think it's Fluff-Equinox. Fluff's attitude toward being lynched has been giving me pause, because if it's a bluff it's a pretty damn good one... but if he's scum with Equinox, then the heavy defense of DH and Marble makes sense - if they don't vote for him, he is unlynchable. I can't completely rule out the possibility that he's scum with someone else (DH or Marble) and trying a gambit to look town so Equinox won't vote him, but I think Fluff-Equinox is the most probable pairing by far at this point.

(What I don't understand, regardless of Fluff's alignment, is why he's still voting Chris B. The resignation to being lynched to the point of not switching to the counter-wagon, who he says is in the lynch pool, does not strike me as pro-town... but it doesn't make sense as scum either unless there's some longer-term advantage I'm missing.)

[mith]

Equinox: Ah, ok, I understand what you were trying to say now. (Don't really agree, though... not sure what else Marble would be doing other than pushing Amrun + 1423; it's Fluff's own behaviour - the defense of DH/Marble in lieu of voting for Amrun and protecting himself - that has me questioning that pairing more, and leaning toward you being the scumbuddy.)

Fluff: Can you summarize your case on Chris B? I see pairings (and while I follow to the point of most of his pairings not having been ruled out, I don't see why that makes his pairings most likely), and nightkill speculation (which I'm meh about, and which initially you had pointing to me), and a comment about Chris's vote later on... but I'm having a hard time seeing how you went from "Chris is next one out, I dont really think he can be scum without this being a complete crock of bastard modding..." to such confidence in Chris-scum that you are sticking to it by yourself while you sit at L-1.

[mith]

I won't be voting for Llamarble, and I can't see myself voting for Chris B either unless he does something super-scummy today. So it's down to Amrun and Equinox for me. I also think Amrun-Equinox is the most likely pairing by PoE (and in that case, it doesn't matter who I vote for), but I keep changing my mind on which of the two is more likely to be scum if they aren't buddies.

Looking at them individually, I lean toward Amrun... her entrance in this game was strong and looked pro-town, but lately, not so much (though that may be skewed by the personal stuff she's dealing with, so I'm trying to keep that in mind). The reaction to DH's Sotty hammer still bugs me, for example. Equinox, on the other hand, has more consistently felt like she's doing genuine scumhunting. One point in her favor for me is how she has behaved toward the wagons. She's been a big factor in derailing two L-1 wagons - on DH (confirmed town) and Llamarble (very likely town) - yet jumped on the DGB wagon and made no attempt to turn that one elsewhere. That seems backwards from what I would expect scum to do.

If I look at pairings, it goes the other way. They could be scum together, and that's a wash. The could both be scum with Chris, if we're wrong about the daytalk thing - in fact, Fluff was arguing that Equinox-Chris made a lot of sense (though I don't see why it's a better fit than Amrun-Chris). But Amrun-Marble is completely out of the question, while Equinox-Marble is not; I wouldn't say it's

high

on the likelihood scale - as I said yesterday, Equinox's calm/patient reaction to that wagon doesn't feel like a scumbuddy reaction - but it's the only Marble pairing that makes any sense. The posts to start today are making me a little more paranoid about that pairing... Marble's hammer was odd and 1454 sorta brushes that aside, while also possibly providing a hint at the nightkill motive (granted, DH makes sense as a kill for any other pairing); then the suggestion from Marble that we sheep him? Ugh.

Anyway, need to review some things - ISOs of everyone, Fluff's comments on Chris yesterday in case I'm just stuck in a blind spot there, the end-of-day wagons...

As far as voting strategy goes, I hate random

voting

, so the idea of deciding any game on the flip of a coin would be anathema to me even if I didn't think we could do better by using our heads (and I do). The default of "townies think about the individual players and the possible pairings and vote when you are sufficiently confident in someone being scum" works well enough - it forces scum to act unnaturally indecisive, so they have to either go ahead and vote first (reducing the game) or stall in hopes that a townie votes (possibly slipping up in the process). If not for the Equinox-Marble possibility, letting Marble decide who votes first wouldn't be a bad option. (Or, for that matter, just letting Marble decide the lynch, as he suggests.) But with that out there, I'm extremely reluctant to put this in his hands.

[mith]

Fluff wasn't scum. I must have been wrong about one of my assumptions yesterday (Equinox not scum with Marble because of her reaction to the wagon; Amrun not scum because of her entrance; Chris B not scum because of the daytalk slip). I definitely feel most strongly about the daytalk thing, but I am going to reconsider everything.

[mith]

Equinox/Faraday: I wanted DH dead pretty much all of days 1 and 2. After thinking about the "hammer" reaction, I moved to a strong town read. I think he had an OMGUSish scum read on me early, which turned to a town/borderline read later? He didn't say much about me after we revised our reads, nor I about him (other than to further rule him out on lack of partners).

Amrun: Prior to Equinox questioning you about it, had you said anything about the likelihood/unlikelihood of Equinox/Marble? I follow the logic in 1474... but it's pretty much exactly what I was saying about it, and it does seem a little odd that you called Marble town so emphatically if that's your stance on Equinox/Marble. (You can't have forgotten Equinox/Marble as a possibility, you mentioned it in the post right before that.)

My order right now is Amrun, Equinox, Chris, Marble; Equinox/Chris doesn't feel like a scum-scum argument. Amrun/Equinox feels a little less likely as well since they have each other as their top pick, but something feels off about the whole "VOTE FOR ME" thing.

[mith]

~blinks~ What just happened? Was that hammer? I'm not scum with Amrun, so I guess scum win... sorry I couldn't be around to do more, I just got home from work.

(Also sorry to hear Amrun's run of bad news continues. That really sucks. )

[mith]

Unless it's Equinox-Amrun and Equinox is saying she's dumb for voting her partner? I don't get why she would do that though...

[mith]

Ok, ok, I'll stop screwing with you guys now.

VOTE: Amrun to make it unanimous.

[mith]

I basically wrote this game off after DGB went to L-2 while on V/LA. I got stuck stalling expecting her to show up and talk her way out of it, since SocioPath's case seemed so easy to shoot down.

Then DH fluked himself into a confirmed town position, and Llamarble wasn't posting enough day 3... so after some encouragement from Hoopla, it was gambit time. Couldn't have imagined it playing out any better.

[mith]

Yeah, we hardly even discussed killing anyone other than DGB voters the first three nights; they were the most confirmed, and it made the "scum would bus" argument look bad. Chris B was the only one we talked about, just for being so annoyingly obvtown.

(That, and Marble basically got to tunnel on you the entire game.)

[mith]

Off for the night... I'll probably have some more thoughts later, but for now I just wanted to say that Hoopla deserved a lot of credit for talking me into the day 3 vote switch - see 174 in our team thread when the link is available.

[mith]

None here.

[mith]

Re: SocioPath... One big help going into day 2 was Thor's 281, which SP never responded to. A solid "here's why mith would do this as DGB's scumbuddy" post - and that case wouldn't have been too difficult to make - would have made life much more difficult for me.

Marble selected the first two kills (I wouldn't have killed IP, certainly, but the other kills we were looking at night 2 also had me as town). Thor had more to due with pairings than anything - Marble was in no danger of being lynched, so I argued for taking out a possible partner (with the "scum wouldn't double-bus and then take out everyone else on the wagon" argument in my pocket if attention turned to mith-Equinox).