Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

[InflatablePie]

As this day goes by, I'm becoming more willing to lynch Fluff today as opposed to tomorrow or afterwards.

[LlamaFluff]

Now I'm having doubts about Sevei-scum because she basically just called the town's almost-unanimous-list-of-town-reads... scum.

You are not "the entire town". Marble is no way in everyones "obviously town" list and is probably in the middle of the pack if you average everyone out. Apart from that her list is stretching, but I agree with it basically as much as your last list.

I'm not allowed to spell out the most obvious reason why mith is town.

Try it.

[Sevei]

IPie: Of those "almost unanimously confirmed town reads," what are the chances that all four of the people on a town wagon are indeed town? (I know I'm the only one who knows for certain I'm town, but lynching me will clue everyone else in.) One of you is scum. (And my list of four isn't my list of reads, it's the list of people voting for me.)

[LlamaFluff]

IPie: Of those "almost unanimously confirmed town reads," what are the chances that all four of the people on a town wagon are indeed town? (I know I'm the only one who knows for certain I'm town, but lynching me will clue everyone else in.) One of you is scum. (And my list of four isn't my list of reads, it's the list of people voting for me.)

Ok Sevei is town now.

This is actually one of the biggest reasons Sotty is scum too. She basically ignores everything that went on between SP and DGB until it came to the point where DGB was obviously in serious trouble and jumped the wagon almost entirely for pressure and rode it out until the end of the day. Following that, Sotty immediately attempts to drum up a "lynch everyone off the wagon" hunt, when herself really had nothing to do with the wagon.

That reads as scum bussing, and then trying to keep attention off of them by diverting the attention to a group that they are not a part of. The best way to not get lynched is to remove yourself from the table while at the same time pulling town off the table in an attempt to get them to agree with you.

Not to mention all of the shennanigans that went on between the marble-sotty interactions and DGB looking at them getting very interested, then trying to defuse them from going after eachother. Reads as scum trying to make sure that their partner is not going to get stuck in a "one or the other" situation when one more scum lynch ends the game.

unvote
Vote Sotty

[LlamaFluff]

This also means Thor takes the #4 scum spot. DGB launching full attack at him when she is obviously dead means nothing for him being town.

[InflatablePie]

You are not "the entire town". Marble is no way in everyones "obviously town" list and is probably in the middle of the pack if you average everyone out.

I'll give you this. Meh.

I'm a bit biased though - my team/The Voices™ say that Marble wouldn't pick a scum game, plus I can't see scum!Marble pushing on Thor with scum-mate DGB at the end of D1... it doesn't sit right.

I'm not allowed to spell out the most obvious reason why mith is town.

Try it.[/quote]

Request for modkill is noted.

Re-read 482 about three more times (mostly paying attention to my reads and friendly reminders). Put the pieces together yourself.

what are the chances that all four of the people on a town wagon are indeed town?

27.3% objectively if I'm doing my math right. 45.5% since I know I'm town.

Given that I have town reads on all three other players though, on this wagon the chances are 100%.

[InflatablePie]

IPie: Of those "almost unanimously confirmed town reads," what are the chances that all four of the people on a town wagon are indeed town? (I know I'm the only one who knows for certain I'm town, but lynching me will clue everyone else in.) One of you is scum. (And my list of four isn't my list of reads, it's the list of people voting for me.)

Ok Sevei is town now.

This is actually one of the biggest reasons Sotty is scum too. She basically ignores everything that went on between SP and DGB until it came to the point where

Okay, hold up.

I don't get how you jumped to this. Elaborate? Because I think you left out some stuff.

[Thor665]

@Llamafluff - My cleft chin makes me town though.

So, you're actually leaning towards 2 scum being on the DGB wagon at the moment? Because that's what the case would be for that Sotty case to really make sense. There's no point in pulling herself off the table if she can't get her buddy out of the hotseat too, yeah?

[Sevei]

Just because you have a read on someone doesn't mean you're right, so 100% isn't a real probability, it's just your opinion. You're wrong about your read on me, so I don't have a lot of faith in your reads on the others on my wagon.

[Thor665]

Should anyone have a town read of you? So far most of the town reads appear to be based on 'she's pathetically lurking, for her that's a town read' and all I can wonder is, if she's pathetically lurking as town, why would she pick a game about being town and hopefully active town, since Mountainous games are won via town being active and awesome and having cleft chins.

[InflatablePie]

Just because you have a read on someone doesn't mean you're right, so 100% isn't a real probability, it's just your opinion. You're wrong about your read on me, so I don't have a lot of faith in your reads on the others on my wagon.

Like I said, completely objectively, it's about a 27.3% chance. 2/11 chance of each person being scum times four, subtract that from 100%. Did I do that right?

Of course, I have a scumread on you (that could be persuaded to neutral at best; not enough to escape my personal lynchgroup though) so I don't even know why I'm arguing with you.

[Klazam]

IPie.

Ythill being scum does NOT clear Mith. A team could be all town or all scum, or 2,2, or whatever. it's not all 1 out of 4.

[LlamaFluff]

IPie: Of those "almost unanimously confirmed town reads," what are the chances that all four of the people on a town wagon are indeed town? (I know I'm the only one who knows for certain I'm town, but lynching me will clue everyone else in.) One of you is scum. (And my list of four isn't my list of reads, it's the list of people voting for me.)

Ok Sevei is town now.

This is actually one of the biggest reasons Sotty is scum too. She basically ignores everything that went on between SP and DGB until it came to the point where

Okay, hold up.

I don't get how you jumped to this. Elaborate? Because I think you left out some stuff.

Sevei is town because she is attempting to direct lynching at players who were on the DGB wagon instead of off the DGB wagon. If we are lynching on that pool, Sevei has no chance of making it, so its suicide and game losing if she is scum it would appear. Sotty is trying to play it the exact opposite. By lynching OFF the wagon, she is not going to be up for lynch discussion, so is pushing the lynches away from here.

Or simpler
Sevei make people look at pool with her in it
Sotty make people look at pool without her in it

So, you're actually leaning towards 2 scum being on the DGB wagon at the moment? Because that's what the case would be for that Sotty case to really make sense. There's no point in pulling herself off the table if she can't get her buddy out of the hotseat too, yeah?

Not necessarily but it wouldnt shock me at all. WIFOM aside, I would have basically discussed hard bussing by at least one player in the QT pregame as scum, since if someone goes down, you NEED to have everyone else in a good enough spot to ride out to the endgame. Now it doesnt quite mean that all scum was on the wagon, since off the wagon we still have marble, Chris, Klazam, me and DH alive and not on the wagon. Not a stretch of the mind in the least bit that one could be scum and Sotty is going for a Sevei + three of the five combo for a win. She puts them under attention, but even if we only lynch off the wagon, at least one of them live.

[Sevei]

Point taken, but the reasons being given for me being scum aren't/weren't that I was pathetically lurking. I am usually a slow-starter in games, especially with people I haven't played with before, and other than that I've had some other things going on that I didn't expect to be going on when I signed up.

[TheButtonmen]

D2VC5:

Sevei (4): IP, Thor, Llamarble, Equinox
DH (2): mith, Sotty,
Llamarble (1): Sevei
mith (1):, Klazam
Sotty (1): LlamaFluff

Not Voting: DH,Chris

With 11 alive it's 6 to lynch.

[LlamaFluff]

IPie.

Ythill being scum does NOT clear Mith. A team could be all town or all scum, or 2,2, or whatever. it's not all 1 out of 4.

I dont think IP is this dull since its about a 1/28 chance that a team has two scum roles on it, so about 50% chance it happened.

Anyway, Sotty wagon would be fun to see here.

[InflatablePie]

Ythill being scum does NOT clear Mith. A team could be all town or all scum, or 2,2, or whatever. it's not all 1 out of 4.

If a team draws a scum PM, the odds of the other PMs being scum, in theory, are much lower, being that the average distribution would be 3:1 with one team inevitably getting 4:0. I realize it's possible to have 2-4 scum PMs in one team, but it's unlikely.

Sevei is town because she is attempting to direct lynching at players who were on the DGB wagon instead of off the DGB wagon. If we are lynching on that pool, Sevei has no chance of making it, so its suicide and game losing if she is scum it would appear.

It looks like she's directing lynching at players on her wagon, not DGB's. It's coincidence that both wagons have three players in common.

If I'm incorrect about Marble, then I would still look at DH next, and the current third on my list is either Fluff or IPie.

Hey look, I was the only one she mentioned that was on the DGB wagon. She's directing lynches at people off the wagon, actually.

In fact, she's countervoting Marble, who is on her wagon and was off the DGB wagon.

...my gut twinged when I typed that out. Hrm.

[LlamaFluff]

@IP - Yeah I read that a little wrong, but I still stand by Sevei being more likely then not town. I just get that feeling from what she has been saying today, mostly as she is looking past her lynch to further days instead of fighting hard to change a wagon. Scum has no need to actually talk about stuff that will happen further down the road because that wouldnt occur if they got lynched, instead they would need to find a counterwagon.

Sevei instead is saying who we should lynch over the next few days after she gets lynched, trying to make it so scum gets lynched later if she instead goes today. That makes her somewhat likely to be town either way, since she is trying to pick out scum on her own wagon to have say in what happens in other days.

I still say Sotty is a good lynch here. I would be fine with some people (marble, sevei maybe Klazam) doing a shameless wagon here.

[mith]

IP - I hate to shoot down things that lead people to the correct conclusion that I'm town, but the math doesn't work like that. Before anything was known about anyone's alignment, teams with 2 scum or more are less likely (though certainly not negligible that there's at least one, given 13 teams), but that's because it's unlikely (3/13) for a team to be given a scum role in any given game. Once a player's alignment is known, the probabilities for that team's other games don't adjust based on the starting EV for the whole team, it's the other way around - the EV of scum on the team goes down or up based on the first player's flip. The other slots for the team are still independent. (We

can

use assignments within a team to our advantage, if certain players are more/less likely to choose scum. But as I said at the start of the game, I'm in White Flag because I created it, and would still have chosen it if we had been assigned a scum role.)

Lynch preference order at the moment: DemonHybrid, LlamaFluff, Klazam, Llamarble, Sevei, Equinox, Sotty7, Thor, [Chris B, Inflatable Pie]

[Equinox]

You know what's making me itch? In a situation like this, scum are going to try to defuse wagons, whether it's to save their buddy or to mask the time when they do have to save their buddy, and LlamaFluff's attempts to push people off the Sevei wagon irks me in that regard. I also don't see the cases on either mith or Sotty7.

However, I'm going to go have a look at Sevei's link and Sotty7's voting movements and see what LlamaFluff's on about.

Chris B and DemonHybrid need to commit their vote to something, too.

[Sotty7]

@Sotty: You guys were talking about Sevei. You mentioned me and then he asked what the case was with me. I had to double-take and ask to make sure. That's really all there is to it. Notice when Thor answered, I let it go and he let it go.

Fair enough.

Also, Sotty, I'm waiting for Sevei's scum meta. I need to do a bit of research; Sevei says she's a bad scum player and I'd like to apply that to this game.

This isn't fair enough. This is just pure lazy. I've never seen you sit back and wait like this, but then I don't think I have ever seen you as scum before.

Just a friendly reminder that, as a town,

if we can narrow down possible scum to 5 or less people, we win

.

Sotty7
Klazam
mith
DemonHybrid
Llamarble
LLamaFluff
Sevei

^so if we can all agree on the two most likely town in this group (because the other players seem to be unanimous townreads) we can just chain-lynch from there.

My vote for the two most likely town from this group are mith and Sevei.

Klazam

– What's your thoughts on Llamafluff's defense of DGB?

Llama's 503 is weak. I hate the bussing argument so much... So much so much. It's even more silly when I voted scum while he didn't. I'm not going to defend my choice to help pressure DGB and eventually lynch her. Still I am agreeing with Pie in that we're in a pretty sweet position right now. I'm willing to be lynched today as long as DH/Fluff go next. I'm reasonably confident lynching one of these two wins us the game.

But, I do really like mith's lynch order.

[Llamarble]

Man, the company on the seveiwagon is excellent. Even if she's town I think her whole wagon also is.
Going after 3 essentially unlynchable players shows some balls though.
I'm also getting some mild townthoughtprocess vibes from her recent posting.

VOTE: Klazam

As for the fleeing the thread like its on fire thing, I think scum are probably pretty demoralized by the whole D1 scumlynch ->
They're lovers and have a 73% chance of losing if town lynches randomly situation.
I expect demoralized scum post less.

Fluff's recent posting has been Eww.

[InflatablePie]

IP - I hate to shoot down things that lead people to the correct conclusion that I'm town, but the math doesn't work like that. Before anything was known about anyone's alignment, teams with 2 scum or more are less likely (though certainly not negligible that there's at least one, given 13 teams), but that's because it's unlikely (3/13) for a team to be given a scum role in any given game. Once a player's alignment is known, the probabilities for that team's other games don't adjust based on the starting EV for the whole team, it's the other way around - the EV of scum on the team goes down or up based on the first player's flip. The other slots for the team are still independent. (We

can

use assignments within a team to our advantage, if certain players are more/less likely to choose scum. But as I said at the start of the game, I'm in White Flag because I created it, and would still have chosen it if we had been assigned a scum role.)

scum-mith wouldn't have pointed this out. /town-tunnel

But regardless of Ythill, mith's posts read town to me. So there.

Unvote

Grr. I hate having doubts.

[Sevei]

Boy, they can't get off my wagon fast enough, can they?

I still think the odds that none of those four is scum are pretty slim. For anyone who isn't Marble, why is he town? Because I'm not seeing it.

[LlamaFluff]

Llama's 503 is weak. I hate the bussing argument so much... So much so much. It's even more silly when I voted scum while he didn't. I'm not going to defend my choice to help pressure DGB and eventually lynch her. Still I am agreeing with Pie in that we're in a pretty sweet position right now. I'm willing to be lynched today as long as DH/Fluff go next. I'm reasonably confident lynching one of these two wins us the game.

This is sort of cutting out key parts of what I said...

You started off the day not paying any attention to what DGB said or did with regards to SP or not, just saying from time to time that you would read up on it. While the debate really never had a winning side, you never did. Instead you push hard on marble who was one of the better chances to be a counterwagon to DGB. Until a vote on DGB, the entire mention of her is "will read" with the exception of a super early disagreement over SP/Equinox alignments. There also is a half the game list which "contains two scum" that DGB appears in. Eventually, you snap to DGB for "pressure", and never actually call her scummy until she attacks Thor near the end of the day, at a point where there is little if any chance of another lynch occuring.

This is close to what I would expect from scum in a game like this, trying to make it look like they are an important part of the wagon on scum by throwing a vote down for pressure, trying to make others take a strong stance on her, and then adding on a little point.

What happens next though is EXACTLY what I would expect from scum, which is turning all attention off of them an onto others. Nearly everything that Sotty has said during today has been trying to make people lynch those that arent on the DGB wagon (opposite of where I think scum would be). I mean, for the entire scum team to be off the wagon, I just cant see that, especially since DGB was obviously a lynch for quite a long period of time. This game for sure you would not want to be caught off the D1 wagon of a scumbuddy without a great reason, since where do people normally look for scum?

I know its WIFOM, but I would have tried to slam any scum who was in trouble as scum, and encouraged others to do the same. There are few things better for scum that I see then having scum lynched day one and then all other scum look likely town from the resultant fallout.

In response to Sotty comment, I am basically fine being lynched if Sotty goes in the next five votes the following day. I would rather just end the game with me alive, but last thing I want is for her to make endgame here

@marble - I know my opinions arent popular, but im not about to let people take this game in a direction I dont like. Also ZERO way Klazam or Chris should be lynched this game. I would nearly lynch IP before those two.