Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

[Chris B]

/confirm

[Chris B]

I go to bed at midnight, wake up at 7am, and I already feel like a lurker. Since my new job doesn't allow me the internet access I would like, I'm going to mention the fact it will generally likely take time for me to respond to posts. But hello all, and nice to meet you.

That said, <b>Vote Equinox</b>

My experience in these games is limited, but I've never seen random voting be anything other than random (or silly), since actual wagons rarely come out of them. Scum don't want to give away their game that early, and town aren't doing anything serious, because they don't know where to start. Equinox was pushing the RVS as a big deal, and has been playing very aggressively.

I'm at something of a disadvantage, because you're all more used to each other than I am, so there's the potential that I'll mistake an aggressive playing style for scum tells, but I figure I may as well vote by instinct on a first read through.

[Chris B]

Oh, this is BBCode?

Vote Equinox

.

[Chris B]

I agree with Equi about Chris, town read there.

I'm interrupting my reading to answer this. I don't agree. Could be a alt faking the nO0b card, I don't know. Maybe he's from a weak team. I will judge him on his own merit.

I'm not a n00b at the game, although I am to the forums. I'd made the mistake of using quick reply, and defaulted to html rather than BBCode. It's not like I could go back and edit my post, so what would be a momentary distraction on any other forum can be something picked over for as long as anyone wants. But it's also a blatant WIFOM.

Now, with regards to Sotty's point - I don't think Equi was defending me, as much as making a big deal about identifying a team. So, yes, I'm from another forum - the UKFF. Google it and my name, and you'll get far too much of me talking about wrestling and politics, and also a reasonable number of mafia games on there. I was asked to join a team as a late replacement. If I'm an alt, I've put in about seven years worth of backstory, so you should at least be reasonably impressed. I'm making the point about different style of playing, because (again, as anyone who wishes to spend too much time researching me will know already), the UKFF games tend to take a rather different approach.

I do question the motives behind posts made by anyone who's obviously done just that searching before I make a post in the game though.

So, Equi - you're already aware that I've been brought in from another forum, which means you're already aware that I'm not THAT inexperienced. Why the town read based on inexperience. There's an enormous difference between playing style/forum experience and playing ability. I think it's safe to assume that, were I an idiot, I wouldn't have been invited. It strikes me more as trying to get a reaction, by implying I'm the total n00b of the team. So what reaction were you going for? It's the first time I've ever seen a read on someone before they've actually posted.


Now, goof - I brought up the time difference because I also haven't played MS on an American forum, and hadn't realised how quickly the game would move while I was asleep. I'm not planning on taking any days where I'm not on here, and I'm not reading/responding, but if I'm taking hours to respond, it's got far more to do with my new schedule than it has to do with lurking. If I go past the 24 hour point without responding, feel free to jump all over me, and decide if my subsequent excuses are full of shit or not.

I think that pushing IIoA on someone's first post is somewhat harsh, but I'll accept the point to an extent. However, some of the most successful scum teams I've seen have had aggressive players in them, especially early in the game. Is this particularly different on this forum, or are you just easily swayed by a strong opening gambit? This goes for both VCA and jumping in early.

[Chris B]

Ugh, I'm reading through more carefully from the start now, and beginning to get my head around the game. It's coming up to 1am here, and I've only got to page 4 - please don't all go crazy tonight with stuff, and I may be able to catch up properly by tomorrow... (yes, I'm that selfish).

Okay, based on the first few pages, I'm actually sticking with my vote on Equinox. It started off because it seems that non-voting is frowned upon here, and I disliked the way she jumped on me. It took me a little while to put my finger on, but by massively pushing the n00b thing, to the point of raw n00b, it rather pushes that any conclusions I draw are useless, and takes an unknown quantity out of the game. Sure, there's an element of OMGUS in there, but it seemed a good start.

Through going through the first part of the game, here's my ntoes, and what stood out to me:

Drops hints constantly without saying anything. Baits people into voting for Inflatable Pie. Not liking the way she pushes people to vote this early in the game. Could be intentional distancing from Inflatable. Post 40, complains that people are ignoring the IP wagon. Within six posts, she criticises them for hammering (post 46). Weak reasons for not pushing anyone else other than IP (post 49)

Pushing against IP based on team composition according to post 56. Complains that people weren't voting against IP again. Points out that she didn't post-bait between the two last posts, but there was very little time for her to have done so. Votes for llamafluff in what appears to be OMGUS.

The real standout is the excuse about not pushing the wagon between what she thought was L-1 and hammer. This is hardly a strong excuse, since there wasn't much time between them.

Now, I think that she and IP are working together. The self-vote gambit allowed her to back off the wagon while still criticising people. IP has been acting weirdly, including criticising Equi for getting off the wagon, and criticising Klazam for staying on it. Despite that fact that, verbally, he criticised Equi more at the time, he actually voted for Klazam. Strikes me as a serious case of distancing. Note that I think Equi was lying when she 'thought' that people were closer to L-1 than they were.

Klazam - do you agree with this? You thought that the self-vote was scummy. I wouldn't agree if you're bringing yourself to L-1 (there's no real gain other than bullying the lynch back down), UNLESS...you had a scum partner who was going to ease off the pressure, and put the focus onto anyone on the wagon.

Demonhybrid has my FOS, based on his apparent inability to understand Llamafluff, who was really being quite clear, as well as being very careful wording any suspicion of Equinox.

Goof also has my FOS, based on his jumping all over lurkers within hours of the game starting. Lurker-hunting is always a nice way to make it look like you're doing something active. On top of that, his 'town list' corresponds exactly with my 'scum list'.

My 'currently trusted' list is Mith and Llamafluff - both of them seem to think in ways that I like, and seem to be actively pushing and hunting rather than just being aggressive and concentrating on meta. Reading through the first few pages, Llama seemed to be posting the questions I was noting to myself, and I immediately like that.

[Chris B]

Okay, I'd prefer to see Equi hang, based on the fact that I can't believe the stuff she (and quick note here - I notice some people refer to people generally as she and some as he. Not sure who is which gender, so if I get it wrong, please correct me) got away with in the early part of the game. The reason it looked like I was tunnelling over the first few pages is because she really stood out. What stands out to me the most is the 'OMG, IP is such scum' followed by the 'nah, he's totally, like, town guys!' thing. Being able to do that without talking about what the crap you're on about is bad going.

However, I'm no longer convinced by IP, and that's one that has me concerned. The fact that Thor brought up the 'conform' rather than 'confirm' thing is some weak sauce. And frankly, I just don't trust Thor, so I'm not going to join in on the IP wagon. I'm still pretty convinced that Equi is scum, but I'm no longer convinced that IP was.

I'm liking the case Socio made on DGB. Not enough to vote, but I like it. I prefer the points that have been made about Llamarble, and I'll add in the 'wavelength' rubbish from early on in the game. It seems far more like buddying up than it does genuine town reads to me, and it feels like an odd justification.

DemonHybrid - really glad to see you finally realised your misunderstanding with Llamafluff. My notes had you down as being aggressive for zero reason, and continually pushing him, and without you realising, I had you down as very possibly scum.

So, yeah. Since it's been pointed out heavily that I'm new to the game, I have no idea of people from their previous games, so I'm going based on instinct from the way people come across, in the absence of definite clues, in terms of who I trust. In games I've been in in the past, Equi would have been hanged by now, and hopefully rightly. However, I'll be delighted to be wrong, as it's a hell of a learning curve.

So, overall, my likely scum list right now are Equi, DGB and Llamarble. All three are based on assuming malice rather than lack of consistency, but there are people who's readings and analyses I've liked so far on that wagon. So I'm going to take a leap of faith and hope it's the right one. The case has been made well, and Llamarble is definitely in my 'do not trust' list.

Unvote; Vote: Llamarble

[Chris B]

Just a quick heads up that I've had some pretty major family stuff going on. As a result, I'm skim reading right now. Just wanted to check in since I ill-advisedly said the 24 hours thing. Whichever way the lynch goes, I'm looking forward to some proper information coming out of it (hopefully).

[Chris B]

Just a quick heads up that I've had some pretty major family stuff going on. As a result, I'm skim reading right now. Just wanted to check in since I ill-advisedly said the 24 hours thing. Whichever way the lynch goes, I'm looking forward to some proper information coming out of it (hopefully).

Again, I can't check stuff easily with this browser, is anyone keeping an eye on this guy? Has he done anything?

He doesn't care about the lynch, but he's looking forward to MAYBE hopefully get some information from it? When someone is within hammering rage???? That's what we're getting????????

Is this really his first game here (I assume, Townperson status), or is he an alt well versed in the dark arts of lurking?

RE-POSTING.

This.

Is.

Bugging.

Me.

IMMENSELY.

I.

DON'T.

Care.

I'm posting partially to explain why I'm not hammering you. I haven't had a chance to go through your posts, along with Sociopath's, since his insanity yesterday, as much as I would like. Whichever way your lynch goes, we're likely to get some information. That doesn't mean I 'don't care about the lynch', it means that I'm not convinced enough to put my vote onto you.

If you're town, stop thrashing about wildly, throwing shit in every direction and hoping it'll stick.

[Chris B]

Just a quick heads up that I've had some pretty major family stuff going on. As a result, I'm skim reading right now. Just wanted to check in since I ill-advisedly said the 24 hours thing. Whichever way the lynch goes, I'm looking forward to some proper information coming out of it (hopefully).

Again, I can't check stuff easily with this browser, is anyone keeping an eye on this guy? Has he done anything?

He doesn't care about the lynch, but he's looking forward to MAYBE hopefully get some information from it? When someone is within hammering rage???? That's what we're getting????????

Is this really his first game here (I assume, Townperson status), or is he an alt well versed in the dark arts of lurking?

Oh, and don't put words into my mouth. Alternatively, show me where I said 'maybe', since you deemed it worthy of capitalising.

[Chris B]

We've been one off a lynch for some time. So I want to ask this question to the following:

Socio
Thor
IP
Equinox
Sotty
Mith

Why should one of the rest of us hammer this lynch? In no more than a paragraph, please.

And a separate question to:

Sevei
Llamarble
Llamafluff
DH
Klazam

Why haven't you hammered yet? Again, no more than a paragraph, please.

My answer to the last question is twofold - I've not had the time I wanted to go into things (apologies - it's been a truly sucky weekend. I've ended up doing a lot of work I wasn't planning on to relieve pressure on someone who needs to look after someone else. Family stuff, basically.), and because I'm annoyed at DGB's last set of posts against me, I feel my judgement is a little clouded, and I could end up voting for someone who is town based on what I perceive as stupidity rather than malice. (Seriously 'that wasn't a quote'? After paraphrasing what I actually said, but using that word in capitals, in along with my actual words? Yeah, that's either scummy or just bad play).

[Chris B]

We've been one off a lynch for some time. So I want to ask this question to the following:

Roll up, roll up. It's time to play 'explain the bleeding obvious.

I want to know why there is so little scum hunting going on. Your questions are pretty loaded in the direction of gelling my lynch into a foregone conclusion.

If I wanted you lynched, I WOULD HAVE VOTED FOR YOU. How is this so difficult for you to understand? You put words into my mouth - even if it wasn't a quote, it was blatant misrepresentation. It's not like I couldn't defend a vote on you.

We now have a question everyone can answer. I want people to clarify their positions on this specific point.

So, on that point, Thor - why did you avoid answering? That was some fairly obvious evasion.

It should be pretty clear that there is a proportion of scum that doesn't want to hammer a townie.

It's almost like I want people to explain why they think you're town or not.

[Chris B]

So, on that point, Thor - why did you avoid answering? That was some fairly obvious evasion.

I think I actually quite directly answered the question, I just evaded doing so in the particular way you had requested. You're asking me to generally sell you on being the hammer, I refuted with a statement that you should either want to be the hammer or not, and I didn't feel a need to cajole you into it. That's answering your question. How is it not?

Okay. Could you summarise why you think DGB is scum, please?

[Chris B]

Chris is town due to DGB trying to discredit him early on by calling him a possible alt. Scum can take pot shots at their partners early on, but actively trying to make it so their say in the game is viewed as lesser OR that they get suspicions cast againt them for things out of their control? Again, stupid move if chris was scum, as scum you want your partners to be in a position to help you or the team when needed. This was actively damaging Chris' position, so he is town.

I agree. You know who the other person was who pushed that point?

Sotty.

It's also part of the reason why I suspect Equinox continually - I still can't quite understand why her first half of day 1 has been given a by. While she didn't push the Alt bit, she did push the idea of my game being viewed as lesser.

Here's a thought, in the meantime, about Demonhybrid, and why I'm leaning towards thinking 'town'. You had that ridiculous, long-running exchange with llama, which was a complete misunderstanding. It was also a very obvious misunderstanding, and I suspect an on-the-ball scum team would have gone 'hey, you realise you look like an idiot there, right?'.

[Chris B]

While she didn't push the Alt bit, she did push the idea of my game being viewed as lesser.

1) Aggression is not a scum tell.
2) This is your first game on this site, and the fact is that you are inexperienced.

Have I discredited your reads? No. When I had different reads from you, I explained why. I argued about your experience level to show why I believe your team would not give you a scum role PM, and that was it. I touched briefly upon your inexperience to show you why your read of me was wrong, but I believe that was it.

What I am going to do now, however, is yell at you for tunneling me. That

is

due to inexperience, and that's because you have no idea how rough some players can get here and that it's not necessarily alignment-related (but it does depend on the player). I can also tell you that aggression from me, specifically, is not alignment-related, and you can see that yourself on my wiki page where all of my games are linked.

It may not be alignment-related, but that means it's not a town read either. Also, I brought it up because it was directly relevant to the point that was being made. There's very obvious context there, and it's not about aggression.

It was also a very obvious misunderstanding, and I suspect an on-the-ball scum team would have gone 'hey, you realise you look like an idiot there, right?'.

Are you saying that scum have day talk?

I'm used to that being the default. It was part of the reason I had the theory of you and IP working together - that would be entirely unworkable if day talk doesn't exist, and would partially explain why nobody else considered the theory.

I can also back up that I'm used to it being the default. I pointed towards my experience on the UKFF - you can see for yourself that I think there's maybe been one game that didn't have day talk if you go onto the site.

[Chris B]

Can't believe it took me this long to notice that the ID boxes have gender on them.

While I'm in agreement with a lot of what Amrun says, I'm missing the argument that Sotty is town. I'm willing to hear a counter argument before I vote.

I also firmly believe DGB got bussed.

[Chris B]

Not been intentionally lurking. This week has been a screwed up one for me, but I'm about to go through quite a few players, starting with the case on Sotty7.

Incidentally, you can go through a single players posts with a drop down menu? AWESOME. That makes looking over plays a lot easier.


My case on Sotty relies primarily on DrippingGoofball.

She gave scum reads on Sociopath (328) and Thor (319).

She gave town reads on Llamarble once, (post 183), Equinox once, (305) and Sotty7 THREE TIMES(post 166) (post 178) (post 183).

Would scum really try to clear town for no good reason?

The argument was made earlier that one scummy thing done by Dripping Goofball was to make the 'alt' argument against me. I agree with this.

On that note: Sotty's post 20:

Vote: Chris B

Alt detected.

With regards to Sotty7 being the fifth voter on DGB. I've never liked the argument that scum are more likely to bus on a certain number vote than another one. So I'm not comfortable wth the reverse either, and the fifth vote being the obviously town position. There's still time in there to climb down on a vote.

She also makes the point in post 272 that:

I had forgotten about DGB's V/LA which sucks because now the power wagon lags as we wait for her to come back. Not cool.

Which strikes me as slowing down that vote.

Complete WIFOM in post 538 which can be summed up as 'Scum wouldn't vote DGB like I did'.

On top of that, she's ignored posts of mine twice now. This post here isn't the first time I've pointed out that the 'alt detected' vote. Also, I've already addressed the scum daytalk thing.


So yeah, it's enough for me to be unconvinced by the town argument.

[Chris B]

Not convinced either way by DH. Constant tunnelling on Llamafluff all game, and not keen on how I become his suspect #1 as soon as I start making noise about Sotty7. That said, I can't really deny the lurking charge, although I think most would consider that I've had the 'newb doesn't understand game' card thrown at me pretty heavily at times in this game. However, DH did go after DGB (albeit on a lurking basis, rather than a scumhunting basis).

Going over the posts, it strikes me that DH does quite a bit of information instead of analysis, and seems to pick who he wants to be scum and sticks with it. Which isn't so much a scum tell as a weak play. Finding it awkward in that he's ringing true as town to me in the same way that Sotty's ringing through as scum. I can't put my finger on what it is though, which is frustrating. Another person that didn't read my explanation of my 'scum team slip', which is annoying.

Gut feeling is town, but if my attention could be drawn at anything specific, I'd be interested in taking another look.

[Chris B]

Kind of wish I hadn't taken my time now. This post has all kinds of imaginative bullshit in. 'I firmly believe that...' is a weak assertion? *slow hand clap*

For the record, I wanted everyone to outline their opinion on DGB because it looked like she was going to flip one way or the other. Whether she flipped town or scum, I wanted to be able to have everyone justify their actions, on the basis that it was a fixed point in the game that we could get information from. Instead, Thor derailed it immediately because....well, just because, really.

I didn't vote because, as I said at the time, I was wary of pulling an OMGUS. I also wanted to hear more arguments to help me make my mind up if I was in a position to hammer.

Can't believe it took me this long to notice that the ID boxes have gender on them.

While I'm in agreement with a lot of what Amrun says, I'm missing the argument that Sotty is town. I'm willing to hear a counter argument before I vote.

I also firmly believe DGB got bussed.

Weak assertion that DGB was bussed. "Waiting to hear a counter argument..." even though the Sotty read has been done to death already and he still hasn't given his input.

I see his question to the people who haven't hammered DGB yet as an attempt to gain town points, knowing what alignment DGB was going to flip. Seems a little too confident seeing as how a lot of people were on the fence with DGB. And his vote wasn't even on DGB at the time.

DGB and Chris could have very well been a scum vs scum. I'm also noticing that DGB was very lax and fencesitty when it came to mith, calling him a mix between town and scum but still talking as if she was on good term with him throughout the day.

Not to mention that Chris has had 15 posts so far today (with a few of them explaining why he hasn't posted).

[Chris B]

More coming once I sleep. Trying to make up for any lurking, but literally just fell asleep in front of the laptop.

[Chris B]

Okay, I've found that Thor is a difficult person to get a read on in some ways, however, I think he's town.

The main difficulty I have with his play is how secretively he plays - he doesn't seem to like having to justify his actions. However, I like the fact that he went after DGB fairly early on.

Looking back through his posts, though, he never really explains the about face on Mith. Or if he did, I missed it. So, how about it Thor? Could you explain it please.

[Chris B]

My case on Sotty relies primarily on DrippingGoofball.

She gave scum reads on Sociopath (328) and Thor (319).

She gave town reads on Llamarble once, (post 183), Equinox once, (305) and Sotty7 THREE TIMES(post 166) (post 178) (post 183).

Would scum really try to clear town for no good reason?

Can't defend this.

No, you can't. And I spotted it before I spotted this post from SocioPath not long before he was murderlised.

DrippingGoofball is probably scum. Hai Goofball. No, I'm not obvtown, sorry.

You've obvtown... AGAIN. You just can't help it.

She LOVES calling her scum buddies OBVTOWN.
She has done the EXACT same thing to ME, as we were SCUM TOGETHER.

I've played many games with DGB, and have been scum with her several times.
AND FOLKS, DGB CERTAINLY AINT TOWN THIS GAME.
She isn't as unreadable as many people seem to think.

The argument was made earlier that one scummy thing done by Dripping Goofball was to make the 'alt' argument against me. I agree with this.

On that note: Sotty's post 20:

Vote: Chris B

Alt detected.

Perhaps you should re-read the start of the game again?

I voted you and accused you of being an alt for two reasons. One, if you were an alt I wanted to pressure you into revealing your true account and two; if you were new to the site, jumping into a high profile game I wanted to get a read on you ASAP. This is backed up by me being annoyed that Equi jumped in and protected you right off the bat. I speicfically wanted

your

reaction. But once I realized who you were and who's team you were on I realized you were prob town.

What you did in reaction to other people's actions is not necessarily a compelling argument for what your reasons were for doing it in the first place. I know what you did once Equinox went 'obviously town', but not why you did it in the first place. And since it was put forward as being a strong reason why DGB was scum, it applies to you as well.

In the same breath, the difference between me and DGB in this situation is that once I realized you were a new player, I completely dropped the alt accusation. I don't mention it after my first vote on you. This is a big difference.

This is a better argument - however, to put it simply, I think you're a better player than DGB. Which means I suspect you're more likely to be better scum. The 'alt' point got me looking at you, but if you do turn out to be scum, have words with DGB before you play scum with her again, as her 'obv town, obv town and THRICE OBV TOWN' is damaging.

With regards to Sotty7 being the fifth voter on DGB. I've never liked the argument that scum are more likely to bus on a certain number vote than another one. So I'm not comfortable wth the reverse either, and the fifth vote being the obviously town position. There's still time in there to climb down on a vote.

I have no idea what you're talking about here. No one has said that because I was the 5th voter I'm obvtown.

Someone, and I can't remember who and haven't been able to find it yet, made the point about tipping points on lynches. So I thought it was worth mentioning my position on vote numbers.

On top of that, she's ignored posts of mine twice now. This post here isn't the first time I've pointed out that the 'alt detected' vote. Also, I've already addressed the scum daytalk thing.

?

The first you just said that I also commented on you being a possible alt. You make no conclusions or ask me no questions, what am I supposed to say? And what's this rabble about day talk? I read the discussion and didn't see a need to comment on it, I was happy with your explaination.

You're right, and I apologise. It was DH being all DH, and I thought it was you because I read both posts during the same catch-up.

If you want me to comment on something specific you should ask me. I can't read minds, though I wish I could.

I suppose the question is somewhat obvious, but why should I remove this action and put it on someone else?

Vote: Sotty7

[Chris B]

For the record, Sotty's vote placement was discussed by Mith in this post.

DemonHybrid: You're twisting; I didn't say I was looking at the people off wagon

because

I didn't find those on wagon suspicious. What I said was that I was intended to read through the wagon later - the (I thought rather obvious, but apparently not) implication being that there wasn't much urgency to look at those players who I wasn't suspicious of, contrasted to the off-wagon group who I then went on to analyze.

---

So, on to the wagon:

The most compelling point I see against Sevei is the timing (Sotty, 362) - it could be that she believed DGB was going down no matter what she tried and wanted to be the hammer knowing how the flip would go, whereas town with suspicions on DGB may not have been in such a hurry (ChrisB?). Still, if Sevei were scum, hammering would practically be an act of resignation unless the other scum were

also

on the wagon. I think she's town.

Sotty has read town the entire game, so being on the wagon just gives her extra brownie points. Her "aw, DGB is away, I guess this wagon will have to lag" post worries me, but I think if there's scum on the wagon it's earlier than here; 5 votes is serious business, while an earlier vote could have been "pressure" without the intent to follow through (only to be trapped by the near-inevitability of the lynch as it hit L-2 and L-1).

Among those earlier voters, InflatablePie is obvtown. He turned the situation from "a couple of votes on scum" to "a wagon on scum with momentum". Thor is pretty close to confirmed as well; he certainly never seems to be looking for a way off the wagon, plus DGB's last gasp was a vote for him.

Process of elimination leaves Equinox, and the way he got on the wagon does bother me a bit: "Oh, hey, DrippingGoofball only has 3 votes. I want in." - I get the impression that this was more a pressure vote than a "lynch, rawr" vote, but by the time he comes back from V/LA DGB is at 6 and what's he going to do?

Anyway, if the Word of the Mod came down from on high and told us "Thou shalt find the scum, one on and one off", Equinox would be my best guess for the on-wagon buddy... but I am more suspicious of everyone off-wagon (except Chris B, perhaps), and in the absence of divine intervention I think it's more likely both scum are off.

---

In my team thread, Ythill looked into DGB's iso and came to his own conclusions... I'm hesitant to put much faith in anything relying on DGB-posts (she's the queen of WIFOM), but he makes some good points:

His focus is on 110, her scumlist. He doesn't think she'd put buddies in the town group with her (Equinox and InflatablePie = town), and also doesn't think she would put both buddies in the scum group (White Flag), so DemonHybrid as scum means Thor and Chris B are town. Also, we have the group of Klazam/LlamaFluff/Llamarble/Sevei/Sotty7 containing at least one scum, but Ythill assumes both to proceed:

In 168, DGB adds Sevei to the scum group (points to Sevei town).

In 178, DGB tries to direct Llamarble away from Klazam (points to Llamarble town and/or Klazam scum). Ythill sees something similar in 122 (Llamarble town and/or Sotty7 scum), but I find this one much weaker.

He comes to a conclusion of Sotty/Klazam, but I'm not sure how he's ruling out LlamaFluff (I think he got mixed up and eliminated Thor instead - basically saying what I posted about Thor above - thinking Thor was part of the group he was looking at). I'll ask him about that. I think Sotty is town, and where we diverge is when he assumes both scum are in his group of five, while I think DemonHybrid is scummy scum scum.

[Chris B]

DH, was my 'day talk' slip REALLY that ambiguous?

The one where I said:

Here's a thought, in the meantime, about Demonhybrid, and why I'm leaning towards thinking 'town'. You had that ridiculous, long-running exchange with llama, which was a complete misunderstanding. It was also a very obvious misunderstanding, and I suspect an on-the-ball scum team would have gone 'hey, you realise you look like an idiot there, right?'.

The context is scum talk. The phrase 'scum team' may be a giveaway that I was talking about a scum team. The point I was making actually entirely falls apart based on the fact there's still the team talk rather than scum talk. Once you looked at my explanation, you pointed out that it wasn't enough either. However, realistically, you brought up a point for which no explanation would have meant 'me = town'. I was damned if I was talking about scum, I was damned if I was talking about town, and I was damned if I was being ambiguous.

I'm not liking the amount of crap you're hurling in my direction, and I'm to the point where I'm thinking you're scum getting overly defensive and trying to lynch a less experienced player. I'm also not liking the fact that DGB tried the same tactic.

Unvote, Vote: DemonHybrid

[Chris B]

DH, was my 'day talk' slip REALLY that ambiguous?

The one where I said:

Here's a thought, in the meantime, about Demonhybrid, and why I'm leaning towards thinking 'town'. You had that ridiculous, long-running exchange with llama, which was a complete misunderstanding. It was also a very obvious misunderstanding, and I suspect an on-the-ball scum team would have gone 'hey, you realise you look like an idiot there, right?'.

The context is scum talk. The phrase 'scum team' may be a giveaway that I was talking about a scum team. The point I was making actually entirely falls apart based on the fact there's still the team talk rather than scum talk. Once you looked at my explanation, you pointed out that it wasn't enough either. However, realistically, you brought up a point for which no explanation would have meant 'me = town'. I was damned if I was talking about scum, I was damned if I was talking about town, and I was damned if I was being ambiguous.

I'm not liking the amount of crap you're hurling in my direction, and I'm to the point where I'm thinking you're scum getting overly defensive and trying to lynch a less experienced player. I'm also not liking the fact that DGB tried the same tactic.

Unvote, Vote: DemonHybrid

Is THAT why you're voting me?! Do you even fucking read? You know, when I noted the fact that I missed this post but said "who cares, it still started on Day 2 and you could be scum who received advice from your competent buddy"?

This is opportunism at it's finest, people.

PLAY THE GAME OF 'WHY PEOPLE LAUGH AT DEMONHYBRID'!

Step 1 - Read the post that I quoted there.

Step 2 - Notice the fact that I quoted the ORIGINAL post, not my second post where I explained it.

Step 3 - Notice the fact that DemonHybrid claims to have 'missed this post but said 'who cares''.

Step 4 - Realise that he's talking about the second post, whereas I've quoted the first post.

Step 5 - Point and laugh at him saying 'Do you even fucking read?' on the basis that he, evidently, doesn't.

[Chris B]

Wow. So, yeah, lets not even focus on the argument. Lets focus on some stupid bullshit that doesn't really make that much sense, like whether or not I missed the original post or the post where you specified it.

You realize that you're completely ignoring the POINT of the fucking situation?

REGARDLESS of the post number (and yes, I missed the implication that you meant scum daytalk in your original post and the specification of all of your posts about scum daytalk afterwards), the fact remains that

1. I first thought it was ambiguous
2. I realized it wasn't

Except you realised that it wasn't once you read the follow-up post. My point is that the original post wasn't ambiguous either. And using ambiguity to attack me is a bit bullshitty.

3. I recanted the fact that I thought it was ambiguous still, but said "Who really gives a fuck? You're probably scum with a smart partner that told you to say that."

That's not what 'recanted' means. However, I addressed that when I said:

Once you looked at my explanation, you pointed out that it wasn't enough either. However, realistically, you brought up a point for which no explanation would have meant 'me = town'. I was damned if I was talking about scum, I was damned if I was talking about town, and I was damned if I was being ambiguous.

Don't you fucking read?

4. You vote me for 1 and ignore 2 and 3

Not true. Don't you fucking read?

5. I tell you that you ignored 2 and 3

No, you just misunderstood, because you don't fucking read.

6. You post some dumb bullshit about how my point isn't valid because I missed post A and was talking about post B, both with point X, even though I was talking about point X in the first place.

Slow hand clap.

Your vote is stupid and opportunistic. It is opportunistic because I have 3 votes on me, with 2 strong multi-player town reads on it. But the reasoning for your vote is non-existent, because I

recanted what you're voting for and explained why the alternative is STILL scummy

, which you continue to ignore.

Once you come down from your dream world where meanings and implications don't matter, but post order does, I'll be here waiting with a fucking noose.

[Chris B]

Yes, let's ask Sotty. Oh, wait, we don't have to. I used my incredible gift of 'reading'.

Chris B is town on meta + interactions with DGB end of day one. It's that simple.

He also has the best vote on me out of the three, case wise at least

. I get the sense that he is trying and it feels genuine if off base.

DH, who else is scum outside Chris?

LOL@DH.

[Chris B]

Chris, can you give me the simple bullet points as to why you think DH is scum?

I'm aware there's an element of OMGUS going on here, but I ignored that with DGB, and I don't feel I should have done.

I wasn't sure about DH, but I asked my team for advice. The best advice I got was to put pressure on people, and watch what their reactions were. Scum are particularly vulnerable right now, so they will NOT be going quietly, and are more likely than ever to push hard back against a wagon.

I thought a vote on DH would be a useful thing - I wasn't convinced he was town, and I wasn't going to be able to put Sotty under pressure, since my case was largely ignored - and not only did he go apeshit, but he also did exactly the same thing DGB did. Go for the most vulnerable player (me on both counts) with a vengeance.

I know he's making the point now that I'm a tough lynch, but I'm really not. You guys don't know me from Adam, and so I'm an unknown quantity. You don't know my town style and you don't know my scum style.

DH's play doesn't strike me as scum-hunting, nor does it strike me as someone who's convinced they've got a case. It strikes me as trying to make someone else look guilty. He's kept shifting his case, trying to find something that sticks. It's all entirely circular reasoning. It's panicking, and at this stage in the game, I don't think town should be panicking.

[Chris B]

Thor is being... I don't know what, but he has no case basically and it's gut.

Llama's case is that I bussed DGB

Chris' case was that I bussed DGB but he actually spent time linking me to DGB in other ways outside of my vote on her. He was wrong, but not as wrong as Thor and Fluff. I don't know why Amrun or mith suspect me. They have both been pretty vague about that. I think I am null/town to everyone else though.

Slow game is slow...

Sotty, that wasn't my case. My point was that your position on the vote didn't clear you, and that you may have bussed, not that I'm certain you bussed. I think the stronger point about you is that DGB tried so hard to clear you.

[Chris B]

I promised to post the case, but I'm not going to follow it and vote Sotty. mith is misrepresenting me real hard, not even looking past superficial crap like V/LAs and Day 2 "town slips" and continues to chalk it up to "me trying to get a mislynch off of Chris B" instead of reading the case.

My scum picks are mith and Chris B. My team's picks are mith, Sotty and Sevei (I don't agree with the Sevei read in the least, but don't shoot the messenger).

What's your teams case on mith, since it evidently doesn't include me? Meanwhile, what are their points/cases on Sotty and Sevei?

[Chris B]

Apologies, I missed that post. Went straight from the one about Mith/me to the post I responded to, and didn't see the one in the middle.

[Chris B]

EBWOP: I think at least 3 people on the DemonHybrid wagon right now are town; the remainder are mith and Sotty7, and I'm still in the middle^(?) of reading the cases there, but the only other wagon I see moving is mith... and I kind of doubt I'd be willing to go there, but we'll see.

For now, how about we run with this?

I'll hammer DemonHybrid once he gets his team together and posts thoughts.

(Let the last-minute discussion frenzy commence!)

This has me a little concerned, I have to admit. Once DH posts what his team thoughts, I'll be reading the cases, and if there's something that changes my mind, I'm open to that (not least because I'm aware how town I've found mith, particularly, and that's never a good thing). I'm open to the idea that DH might not definitely be scum.

Does anyone else see what I mean by finding this concerning?

[Chris B]

Does anyone else see what I mean by finding this concerning?

Ooh, ooh, me, me, me!

That I doubt DemonHybrid is scum but will probably hammer him anyway?

If that's the right answer, what do you think of Thor665's comments about game momentum?

Not quite. You didn't say you'd probably hammer. You said you would hammer. And you did it while maintaining distance at the same time. It was the certainty. Partially, it comes across not just that you think he's town, but that you KNOW he's town.

That's why I'm concerned.

[Chris B]

ChrisB, why are townreads bad?

They're not. However, it's comprised more of gut than anything else, with a healthy dollop of 'yeah, he's saying the things that I think'. It means I'm less likely to think he's scum, and more likely to come up with alternate reasons for slips. I'm giving him something of a pass and I'm aware of it. However, at the same time, I don't think he's buddying up to me. It's more that I've liked a lot of his posts, but that's all it is.

My point is that it's a little bit more gut and a little bit less read. Now, my gut's not that bad, but I've misled before.

[Chris B]

Attacking Equinox for lack of fencesitting

Lol.jpg

Defending someone for knowing someone's town and hammering anyway is a little lolworthy as well.


Meanwhile, I realise I neglected to respond to Equi's point about Thor.

I think there definitely needs to be some momentum in this game. It's glacially slow. But he was talking about L-1 and reactions more than he was talking about 'lynch and move on, people!'.

That said, if there'd be any chance of shorter day phases in the next few days, y'know - that'd be great. Unless we successfully lynch scum this day phase, at which point we're doing what works...

[Chris B]

I've already said I'm willing to vote Sotty, for the record.

[Chris B]

Not been posting much because I've not had much to say so far - plus, since it picked up last night/today, I've been asleep/at work. The game's stalled, and I can't help but feel that's by design by a couple of players.

If there's a wagon on Sotty, I'm all for it, and was about to move to it, but then Equinox voted Demon, and I'm not derailing anything at this stage. I'm not used to games that last a month by the second day phase, and at this point I'm frustrated as hell with this day phase. At this point, I don't care if the wagon's on me, I'll hammer it. I just want this day phase over and done with.

[Chris B]

DIE, NEVERENDING DAY PHASE, DIE.

Unvote, Vote: Singersigner

Also, I have issues with the 'not understanding white flag' play. Really, nobody in her team would have explained that?

Yeah, just nothing about this play worked for me at all, including the fact that she came in and went straight for public enemy number one in DH, and cleared the most popular town-reads. I'd rather lynch DH or Sotty, but neverending day phase must die.

[Chris B]

Hi Llamafluff.

I'm not a big fan of discrepancies. Truths are easier to keep track of than mistakes. As a result, when I see someone say something that contradicted something they said earlier, it makes me edgy, especially if I mostly trust that poster.

Going through your posts, it appears you have difficulty counting, which must be embarrassing for an engineer.

In post 341, you say this (bolding mine):

I would rather wait to hammer until after DGB's V/LA; it's just seems more polite. In the meantime, we can talk about how scummy Marble is, though.

*twitch*

@mith - Please explain the DGB case.

I find myself in agreement with marble about a few things, which continues to throw me for a loop especially regarding DGB who I view as slightly more scummy than SP, but really not all the bad,

yet most of my team sees her as more scummy

.

unvote
Vote Sevei

However, after DGB's lynch, you say this.

I'm not completely sold that scum would bus. If anything, it'd be 1:1 on:off, but definitely not both, that's for sure.

Its 50-50 or so to me, although if both bussed, I would bet that one of the last three is scum. There was little chance for DGB to make it deep in this game, and I think attentive scum would have realized this and situated themselves for a DGB flip coming either day one or two.

See his top 4? Those are the people off the DGB wagon. Sevei and Sotty are the other two in the lynch pool. If you think both scum bussed DGB, it's possible that mith is teamed with Sotty or Sevei. However, he's willing to lynch any of the four lynchees that are all off-wagon, meaning it's less likely he's scum with them. Add this to the (imo) improbability of both scum bussing DGB, and mith is much less likely to be scum due to lack of team-mates.

So to make it clear....

Your mith town read is beacuse you dont think both scum bussed DGB. Nice to know thats a strong point in his favor... again look what mith is doing, very similar to Sotty. He is trying to put the maximum ammount of attention on a group that he himself is not a part of. The only one he calls town is the person everyone else has as town. As opposed to Sotty though, he actually is doing a much better job of hiding it, and I actually didnt realize it until you just pointed it out.

Want pairings that work? Mith and any of Sevei, Sotty and Thor work very well. I think the best thing mith has going is actually him saying Ythill is reading me as town, which scum has absolutely no need to contribute to the game. That is actually why I have Sotty over him.

(to elaborate - this reeks of scum too scared to jump on their buddy. "Everyone's telling me she's scum, but I don't see it. Why is she scum again?" - also mimics Fluff, which I admittedly didn't notice till mith pointed it out)

That case didnt make much sense to me, and I willingly admit I cant read the people who have very little in the terms of repeting logical trends (meaning I can figure out what they are doing).

One person on my team was saying they thought she was scum

, but I still didnt see it (and still dont see it).

Look at some of the DGB to Klazam posts though. In one of her early posts, she supports my vote on him without adding pressure of her own. Later on, she again encourages a wagon on him. This doesnt read like scumbuddy interactions but scum seeing if they can drum up a wagon on town.

ISO him and read his interactions with DGB. They just scream town. Plus DGB's vote on him at end-of-day, WIFOM or not, makes him look better in my book. Finally, he came out today wanting Sevei or DH lynches, two people I think are most likely scum via possible pairing analysis (PPA? can I coin an acronym? ), so he's not paired with either of them since scum cannot bus at this point (or if they do, they need to back off eventually), so he's town.

Draft mafia.

SC-scum is going down an jumps hard on one of his buddies near the end of the day, which buys the partner a mislynch before they go. The attack felt more forced then anything else to me. While I do see this as the read im closest to agreeing with you on, im not ready to call him town. I dont see anything though that makes them obviously not partners past your argued last minute vote.

Top five though: Sotty, marble, mith, thor, sevei (equinox can make an appearance here bumping sevei depending on how I feel at the time). I will NOT vote Klazam, Chris or DH for the rest of this game unless something drastic changes.

Explain plz, kthx.

[Chris B]

@Chris - Most of = half.

I've got you down mostly as town - I'm leaning far more towards Sotty/Equinox, but still...

If you were telling the truth, I'd have expected you to point out the 'more scummy than' bit not necessarily entirely equalling scum, not to try and make out 'most of = half'.

[Chris B]

Was that simple to follow for everyone else?

[Chris B]

Thor's not the most cooperative player, is he? I find him hard to get a read on as a result, since any time I ask people for their thoughts on something, he jumps in with a sarcastic comment or trying to avoid the point. Annoying.

However, to continue from the last day phase...:

Vote Sotty7

I'm still not convinced by Llamafluff's 'most of my team is one person', but Sotty's been one of my top reads for a while.

[Chris B]

Thor's not the most cooperative player, is he? I find him hard to get a read on as a result, since any time I ask people for their thoughts on something, he jumps in with a sarcastic comment or trying to avoid the point. Annoying.

You could try asking again, or explaining why my sarcasm isn't valid.
When I answer sarcastically it's generally because I consider the question non-worthwhile, pointless, or laughable (or some combination thereof). If your questions are actually legitimately important to getting a read on someone and I deny that read through my rapier wit...shouldn't you rephrase and ask again?

In day one, we had our first real wagon, and I asked people to state their cases for or against. On the basis that we had our first real solid piece of information that we'd be able to go back to. How is this non-worthwhile, pointless or laughable?

Today, Llamarble is throwing in huge amounts of IIOA, WIFOM and general nothingness. My post was intended to point this out, and also ask other people's verdicts on it. How is this non-worthwhile, pointless or laughable?

I support your vote though I'll also support the question about your reasoning. Did I have your support on this one yesterday? I don't recall it.

If anyone has made their case against Sotty, it's me. And you don't recall if you had my support yesterday? God, it's a shame that posts from yesterday aren't kept and we have to rely only on memory. Wouldn't it be handy if you could go back a couple of pages and check?

[Chris B]

Today, Llamarble is throwing in huge amounts of IIOA, WIFOM and general nothingness. My post was intended to point this out, and also ask other people's verdicts on it. How is this non-worthwhile, pointless or laughable?

Was that simple to follow for everyone else?

So...by me mocking a sideways attack on Llamarble when you're not even willing to vote him it makes me unreadable? How about you ask again? How about you ask a specific question that doesn't look like an attack post? How about you consider me to be blatantly defending him by shutting you down?

How does not voting someone = not even willing to vote him? As long as you're making stuff up, why not go hog wild?

I tend not to vote early. I don't like wavering on my vote, unless there's a good reason to do so. That said, Amrun raises a good point. Since it was now aeons ago, I'd forgotten my early suspicion of Llamarble, and was concentrating on my Sotty suspicion. It kind of shows how much he's been flying under the radar to me, at the very least.

I'll switch my vote, but Sotty remains my default.

Unvote, Vote: Llamarble

[Chris B]

Because you didn't back it up, nor was there anything to back it up. Feel free to point out that I didn't vote for Llamarble since day one, but at least back it up if you're saying that I'm not willing to vote marble, when at that point, I hadn't voted for anyone.

[Chris B]

What I love? I was on the Sotty wagon yesterday before Thor was. And again, he hasn't explained why 'not voting' = 'not willing to vote'. I was willing to vote (as shown by the fact that this is the second time in the game that I've had my vote on Llamarble).

Amrun, simply put, you made a good point. I lost out on DGB's wagon when I didn't vote her when I was suspicious, because I talked myself out of being suspicious. At the time Thor asked, my main suspect was Sotty, as it had been the day before. As I explained earlier, I don't like throwing my vote out early. I prefer trying to work out where the best place is for my vote, unless there's a wagon I agree with. At that point, it was Sotty. You made a good point on Llamarble, and when I looked back to see what the crap Thor was on about with 'not willing to vote', I was reminded that I suspected Llamarble early on. And his going under the radar, along with todays weirdness, was a good reason for me to vote.

But Thor, let me spell this out. If a wagon forms on Sotty, I'm there. I tried to get one going yesterday, and it didn't get anywhere.

[Chris B]

Obliqueness is often the clearest way.

[Chris B]

However, Amrun - what are your thoughts on Sotty? I apologise, but I'm at work, so going back through posts is a little awkward at the moment. Would you be up for a Sotty wagon today in return for a Llamarble one tomorrow if we're wrong?

[Chris B]

Feeling a bit better about Thor than I was. Rest of team agrees he's town, and I liked his reason for wanting me to restate my case - it also explains a bit more why he refused to do the same thing earlier.

At the same time, he's a bit frustrating. My case on Sotty was not exactly a mega wall of text, and he accused me of wanting the same thing when I asked for cases on DGB, despite the fact I specified that I was looking for them in the size of about a paragraph. It was the kind of thing that's frustrating enough that I actually wanted him to be scum.

I don't feel the need to respond to DH's request for an 'updated' case on Sotty, unless he explains why he asked for it, why he hasnt' asked many other people for that kind of thing, and why his posts in this thread read like he's stalking me.

Re: Llamarble, the more cases people make, the more comfortable I am with this lynch. The amount of waiting he keeps asking people to do whenever he's under pressure comes across as hoping things will blow over.

[Chris B]

Hm. I'm going to see who's white knighting him. If NOBODY is, I'd suggest a lynch on someone else, because I'd expect a partner to want to try to save the game.

Is this not white-knighting in itself?

Hypothetically, if Llamarble is scum and you're also scum, isn't this the perfect way to white-knight him without it looking like you are?

[Chris B]

Hm. I'm going to see who's white knighting him. If NOBODY is, I'd suggest a lynch on someone else, because I'd expect a partner to want to try to save the game.

Is this not white-knighting in itself?

Hypothetically, if Llamarble is scum and you're also scum, isn't this the perfect way to white-knight him without it looking like you are?

I'm not against his lynch. I just need to look for the people outright defending him.

And again. If you were on his side, couldn't this be a way to say 'Oh, look, nobody's defending him - best not lynch him'?

[Chris B]

I'm L-1, by the by.

No you aren't.

Vote: Sotty7

That's

L-1.

[Chris B]

DH - when Llamarble was at L-1, you backed away, on the basis that you wanted to see if anyone tried to derail the lynch. Later the same day, Sotty ended up at L-1, and you leaped in like the bloodlust had taken over.

If you stand by your method with Llamarble, why didn't you do the same thing with Sotty?

[Chris B]

DH - when Llamarble was at L-1, you backed away, on the basis that you wanted to see if anyone tried to derail the lynch. Later the same day, Sotty ended up at L-1, and you leaped in like the bloodlust had taken over.

If you stand by your method with Llamarble, why didn't you do the same thing with Sotty?

Can you give me the post number so I know exactly what you're talking about? TBM isn't fantastic with votecounts and I don't feel like searching forever and finding the wrong post.

As of this post, Amrun, Chris, mith and Thor cannot be scum with Llamarble if Llamarble is scum.

All four have been consistently townie lately, with the exception of Thor (while he's been townie, it surely hasn't been consistently).

Hm. I'm going to see who's white knighting him. If NOBODY is, I'd suggest a lynch on someone else, because I'd expect a partner to want to try to save the game.

You think that Sotty AND mith would have bussed DGB? I'm not shooting it down, I'm just curious.

I see the Llama defending of Sotty. If he believed a Sotty/mith scumpair, he wouldn't be fighting this.

Unvote, Vote: Sotty

Let's spin the roulette wheel. At worst, this will give us a lot of answers.

You think that Sotty AND mith would have bussed DGB? I'm not shooting it down, I'm just curious.

Now, I'd forgotten that you Llama defending Sotty, but considering you weren't shooting it down, it doesn't look like he was white knighting her either.

I still find your reasoning on waiting to vote Llamarble to be scummy as hell. By announcing your intention to wait to see who white knighted, you meant that people either wouldn't, or that you were actually white knighting him in quite a smart way. Your question of LlamaFluff followed by an immediate vote, I find as scummy as hell. Why not wait for him to answer? To me, it comes across that you realised you had justification for your lynch and went for it instead.

I think Fluff is town. If he's scum, he had no reason to try and derail a Sotty lynch in favour of a mith lynch. Equinox has raised warning bells to me throughout the game, however I think the scum team is Llarmarble and DH.

Vote DemonHybrid

[Chris B]

Sorry, that wasn't meant to have the above quote twice. I copied and pasted rather than cut and pasted. Posts 1-3 took place within 8 hours of each other. Posts 2-3 took place within minutes of each other.

[Chris B]

Sorry for recent quietness. Busy stuff going on.

I'll look into amrun. I've not been suspicious of her, and it's the point in the game where I need to look more closely. I'm leaving my vote where it is right now though, not least because I'm not joining a wagon with Llamarble and DH on it.

Which is more likely? That both of them are town and amrun is scum, meaning the other scum doesn't want to hammer, or that Llamarble and DH are both scum? After all, if all three were town, scum would have probably finished that wagon by now and won the game.

So, at least one of those three are scum, by my reckoning.

[Chris B]

D'oh. Ignore my maths. That doesn't quite work.

[Chris B]

Sorry about recent quietness. Been ludicrously busy, and somewhat ill this week. Will try and catch up tonight/tomorrow.

[Chris B]

Wow. Hadn't read up yet, and just saw Fluff aiming his sights right at me. I think DH is scum because of the Llamarble defense the day before. It struck me entirely as 'he can only be scum if scum defend him, so let's wait for scum to defend him to see if he's scum' - which is an awesome defense and delay if you're scum as well. So in answer to your question, I think he's scum with Llamarble.

Re Equi - I pushed hard against Equi early, to the point where I was accused of tunnelling. I didn't vote DGB because I was trying not to go with gut. I didn't vote Equi because I was the only voice shouting about that.

[Chris B]

To better show what I mean with the possible slip is the ONLY thing that Chris has going for him...

Goof also has my FOS, based on his jumping all over lurkers within hours of the game starting. Lurker-hunting is always a nice way to make it look like you're doing something active. On top of that, his 'town list' corresponds exactly with my 'scum list'.

Okay, I'd prefer to see Equi hang, based on the fact that I can't believe the stuff she (and quick note here - I notice some people refer to people generally as she and some as he.

<snip>

I'm liking the case Socio made on DGB. Not enough to vote, but I like it. I prefer the points that have been made about Llamarble, and I'll add in the 'wavelength' rubbish from early on in the game. It seems far more like buddying up than it does genuine town reads to me, and it feels like an odd justification.

<snip>

So, overall, my likely scum list right now are Equi, DGB and Llamarble. All three are based on assuming malice rather than lack of consistency, but there are people who's readings and analyses I've liked so far on that wagon. So I'm going to take a leap of faith and hope it's the right one. The case has been made well, and Llamarble is definitely in my 'do not trust' list.

Unvote; Vote: Llamarble

Ok this is big.

Chris first takes a little lolz FoS DGB because she is harping on him hard for lurking (yet never actually attacks him hard). Later, all is from ONE post which is just wow. First he lays out that Equniox is his top scum pick, fair enough, then we move on to DGB where he says he likes the SP case on her and gives credit to it, yet wont vote and instead throws the vote on the counterwagon (who according to line one is not his top pick). It feels way off for him to brush by his top pick and jump on a latter one while at the same time saying he agrees with the case on scum, yet wont vote for them.

@Amrun - Who is marble scum with?
@Chris - Who is DH scum with?

I notice you didn't mention that I'd had my vote on Equinox for days at that point. Following a huge post where I laid out EXACTLY my case against her, and was ignored by everyone.

[Chris B]

At this stage in the game, that's just convinced me as well. I'm honestly astonished.

As a result, that knocks my Llamarble/DH theory, which was my main reason to have issues with DH.

Unvote

Time to have a proper look at Amrun, Fluff and Mith.

[Chris B]

I find this interesting:

TOWN

DrippingGoofball
Equinox >>> first to post, jumps in. Townie all around.
InflatablePie >>> Suggests self-vote in #28??? Defensive. Self-vote? WHY - but early VCA is mega town tell and erases every other concern I may have had.

HYBRIDS

Llamarable >>> I keep mixing him up with the other Llama.
Klazam >>> Buddying to mith in #39, dumb questions in #52
LLamaFluff >>> #22 self-meta why he's town ??? Votes Equitownx? Aggressive jump on Klazam is good, though. I agree with #76

SCUM

Thor 665 >>> #23 self-meta why he's town ??? wants to hammer mith, not vote him.
SocioPath >>> by his own self-admission. Those are never jokes. And then again in #84
Chris B >>> first post #78 is a promise to lurk with IIoA nonsense.
DemonHybrid >>> meek, "I'm not denying that Equinox could be scum" = I no like. Asks loaded questions only.

LURKERZ

Sevei
Sotty7
mith

A trick I've seen, and done, before is to give 'suspicion' of someone, while actually clearing them more. Two negatives and two positives? Doesn't do that for anyone else that isn't town.

[Chris B]

Right, read through DGB's posts on mith and Llamafluff, and Fluff comes out as the leading candidate.

I've also read through Mith's posts, and if he's scum, he's doing a downright incredible job. I've also realised that my distrust of DemonHybrid led to me being more likely to see Fluff as town. My reads have just gone upside down. More reading to do, but that vote on Llamafluff is hovering.

[Chris B]

I'm finding Amrun REALLY difficult to read. Not least because there was no interaction with DGB, and reading along with Klazam is tough. Ugh.

[Chris B]

Fluff, why is Amrun-DH impossible?

Chris timing of intention to vote me is enough to make me more happy with my vote, and some of the marble points there fall flat, especially the second because its exactly what competent scum does in that situation if it can help them at all.

I only made one point - what was the second point, and what are you talking about?

[Chris B]

I only made one point - what was the second point, and what are you talking about?

Marbles points, not yours.

Who am I scum with?

I don't know. I honestly can't get a read on Amrun, so she's the leading contender. Equi, I let myself be convinced by everyone else. However, we don't need to get both right now. We just need one. And I think you're floundering and pulling exactly the same shit as DGB did.

If you aren't, you've screwed up your town game enormously. But I don't believe you at this point.

[Chris B]

Vote: Llamafluff

[Chris B]

I'm not willing to say 'I absolutely won't vote for someone'. Currently, I have no intentions of voting for either. However, I've been flip turned upside down too many times in this game already.

I think at this stage in the game, a good scum team is going to be playing bold, and throwing WIFOM in front of WIFOM. It's entirely possible that Llamarble has just played me. One thing going against you being town is that nobody's hammered yet. There's obvious opportunity here. This suggests that either you're scum and someone off the wagon is also scum, or you're town and two scum are already on the wagon.

Anyone got any issues with that read of the current wagon?

[Chris B]

No, sorry. I'm not putting myself in a position where I may end up deciding otherwise. If you end up being town, it doesn't magically make you right.

My case on DH was based on a partnership with Llamarble. Llamarble threw me a curveball when he defended me. If something turns up that convinces me one/both of them is scum, I'm not going to piss around arguing about the fact that I promised not to.

At the moment, I have no intention of voting for either of them. I can't currently see any reason why that would change tomorrow. I'm not going to lie and give you a definite assurance just to make you feel better.

At this point yesterday, I really didn't think I'd end up voting for you. Things can change. Bear in mind how fucking easy it would be for me to say 'alrighty, I definitely won't do this'. They, and mith, are currently my most likely town reads. I have no reason to lynch them as things stand. That's the strongest assurance I can give, because I don't know for definite who's scum and who's not.

[Chris B]

In fairness, I've been down for lynching Equinox since day 1.

[Chris B]

I rarely like listing suspects, but I think it would be worth everyone doing so. 1-4,

[Chris B]

Sorry, misclicked. 1-4 from scum to town.

1 - Equinox. I've been suspicious from the start, and I didn't like her 'I'm totally going to vote soon' shit yesterday.

2 - Llamarble - I didn't like that hammer yesterday, nor the 'let's not dwell on the past' stuff.

3 - Amrun - Very close to second place here. I continue to not be able to read Amrun, and that concerns me.

4 - Mith - If he's town, I've been played badly.

[Chris B]

If he's TOWN?

Typo. I meant 'If he's scum'. Obviously.

So you think Equinox/Llamarble is the scumteam?

Not necessarily. I don't know who the team are. Hell, I'm having difficulty figuring out one scum member. I don't know who two are.

I was about to post that I want to lynch one of Equinox/mith today, but Chris B's latest post is terrible. I can't get over the daytalk, so I won't lynch him and will have to settle for lynching his partner if he is actually scum.

I favor an Equi lynch over a mith lynch. Mith's thoughts are pretty similar to my own at this stage.

Interesting. I've got Equi, but I haven't got Mith. So your 1-4 are, in order, Equinox, Mith, Me and Llamarble?

[Chris B]

I'm almost home, folks! I'll address mith's longer post when I'm not staring at a tiny screen in noontime sunlight.

Chris B, would you rather I vote LlamaFluff like Llamarble did yesterday and then let the mod lock the thread before I could present thoughts on Amrun and mith? What would be the scum motivation behind waiting to hammer?

I'd rather you get on with it and give your thoughts, rather than keep promising thoughts and action. Considering I pointed out I didn't like the way Llamarble handled that, it's fairly clear that's not what I think.

Scum are still chomping at the bit to have their final mislynch be me. Amrun and Chris B are practically drooling there, and mith could be too but I need to read that wall better when I get home.

Come on, scum, don't be chicken. You know you want to end the game quickly before anyone finds out it's youuuuu.

Since you're mentioning three people, obviously town are chomping at the bit as well.

[Chris B]

THEN VOTE.

What the FUCK do you have to gain from this?

If she's wrong, and you're town, then the scum pile on and win the game. You do realise this, right?

If she's scum, you're giving her reason to help lynch you.

All it takes is one mistake to lose this game. ONE. If you're town, why on earth do you want to encourage a mistake?

[Chris B]

I figured you potentially throwing the game away to be more pressing. It's also not pointless. What do you stand to gain by asking people to vote for you at this point in the game?

I bring more greetings from Faraday... this time with some drinks fresh from the grapevine. Chris B, you were considered just as town as -- if not more than -- DemonHybrid. If I'm scum, why are you still alive?

Because you think DemonHybrid was more likely to be listened to, that you don't think much of me as a player, and that you think, at a push, I'm more likely to be lynched due to my arguing with (and being on the wagon of) Llamafluff.

[Chris B]

My team's basically fucked off at this point with one exception. Last day phase, he thought Llamafluff was town by a hair, and was uncomfortable with me clearing Llamarble. He pointed out that Llamarble could have buddied me on the basis that I was unlikely to get lynched - whereas I thought it was more likely. I don't have much to go on, but I think his list would go 1-4 Amrun, Llamarble, You, Mith, based on the way he's been posting over the last while.

I think it's really important to get people's 1-4's at this point. Could you oblige, please?

[Chris B]

Hey, Chris B. You've been harping on about me being scum for a while. Where's your vote?

I need to go through this again? Take your ritalin.

[Chris B]

Aw, hell, I could go for a triple post.

I don't have much to go on, but I think his list would go 1-4 Amrun, Llamarble, You, Mith, based on the way he's been posting over the last while.

His list and your list are drastically different. Do you just disagree with him or what?

Not drastically. Just you and Amrun in opposite places. His thoughts on Llamarble influenced mine. Another teammate has resurfaced and he actually thinks that you and Amrun are the most likely scum team.

Llamarble, how about your 1-4, please?

[Chris B]

I'm actually surprised, because I was coming around to you and Amrun as scum, partially because, if my breakdown of Amrun's 1-4 was correct (and she didn't contradict me), you both have Mith as #2. Your argument was beginning to look more like scum/scum.

So, if this is a bluff, it's a good one. I'm very tempted to join you on it, but I do want to see Llamarble's 1-4 first.

[Chris B]

Llamarble - I hate asking this, but I can't find it on the glossary. QH?

[Chris B]

Vote Amrun

Not so much because of your points, Equi, although they're not bad. More because I've finally got a read on Amrun which I've been struggling with all game, and fuck me, but she must have a crystal ball for the way she knew who was town in the early part of the game. Even when she VOTES someone, she makes clear that she doesn't think they're scum.

All through her game, she's been pushing Llamarble, and finally deciding he's town in the latter part of the game. All through the game, she's been pushing Mith and is trying to make him her patsy now. All through the game, she's been correctly predicting who was town while watching them go get lynched. Seriously, it's to the point of fortune telling.

Amrun, if I'm wrong, and Equi is scum, make sure you play the lottery this week. Your ability to correctly tell the future is SO good, it's criminal.

Got time to read my vidence? Here it is, up until I'd read enough. Equi, if I'm wrong, well played. Amrun, if I'm right, well played.

Spoiler:

Goes against Mith early. Criticises Mith for not going against Equinox, and concentrating on DH.

Makes the fair point that Mith's push on DGB feels like a late bus. It does.

Before day 1 ended - Llamarble, DGB, Mith, Thor, Equninox, Ipie, Llamafluff, Socio, DH, Sevei, Sotty, Chris

Defends against sotty immediately after.

Seems to be pushing Llamarble/Mith in 543.

Pushes Mith, Llamarble, Thor, Equinox, IPie, DH, Sotty, Sevei, Llamafluff, Chris

550 - pushes Mith and Llamarble. clears Ipie

556 - Continues to push against Mith or Llamarble. Prefer to no lynch than lynch either.

570 - continues to push Llamarble, uses it against Sotty, if Llamarble turns out to be town. Either way, that's going against Sotty, which was a shitty move considering Sotty was town.

573 - "If and when one/both of my top two are wrong, the whole list will shift anyway." (this strikes me as dodgy as fuck)

645 - "If DH flipped scum, my attack on mith would becom a humongous chainsaw." - useful if she knew DH was town.

652 - "You were calling llamafluff scum for something he never did or said. I'm not going to sit by and let that happen to anyone." - Again, defending town in such a way that makes her look good.

664 - Puts down IPie, but makes the point that she believes this to be 'genuine town'. Again, confirming town.

668 - Continues to push IPie, but refuses to think he may be scum. This seems against self-preservation. If someone's pushing me that hard, and I'm town, I tend to start thinking they're scum. Amrun is carefully not seen thinking anyone town is scum.

677 - Effectively saying 'If I'm not scum with Llama, I'm probably town.'

688/690 - cleared me both days

730 - Continues to push Llamarble or Mith. However, "I have decided I'm willing to compromise on a Sotty lynch, though it's still not optimal.
"

760 - "However, I still feel overall MORE confident that you are scum over anyone else at this point." - where did 'still feel' come from?

813 - "Sorry, DH bro. Looks like you're going to hang today. No fault of mine."

929 - "If we wagon fluff today and I get ana greement from each player on the wagon to lynch sotty tomorrow immediately if fluff is town, I'll fucking do it."


945 -
VOTE: Sotty

It isn't the best lynch, but it doesn't make Baby Jesus cry like the other lynch candidates.

(again, correctly predicting flips)

948 -
Unless wagon support crops up, I'll simply enter this as my intent to reconsider if Sotty flips town.

Sotty, if you are town, keep the content coming and I promise to not forget you as soon as you are dead.

Crystal ball.

1032 - I am now willing to vote singer. I could have been wrong about Sevei.
(Almost lynching town!)

1051 - (OH, BUT NO)Singer is probablly town; I was right about Sevei.

1078 -
He spent two whole days hemming and hawing about Seveiscum, and what was Sevei? Town. His other top suspects? Me (I know I'm town) and LlamaFluff (a townread of mine).

1113 - Still, my townread on Sevei warranted caution, hence the waiting before hammering - and then her reaction after she was hammered was sooooooooooo townie that I knew my read on Sevei had been right all along.

[Chris B]

'vidence' is obviously 'evidence'. This started as me making notes for myself, and became something else.

[Chris B]

If I'm right on Amrun, Llamarble or Mith since the start of the game. At this point, it's Llamarble based on her late read of him as town.

[Chris B]

Assuming you're not scum, I look forward to claiming that party hat.

You think it's Mith?

[Chris B]

That was a little rude. Sorry. My life is a pile of shit right now. Someone robbed my business this weekend and we made no money and it's a mess that I'm taking out on mafia in various ways atm.

Seriously, though, thinking I am scum with mith is so dumb.

That's pretty sucky. Sorry to hear that, especially coming on the heels of family stuff. Game aside, and all that, y'know. Hope you're okay.

[Chris B]

Chris B, expain how and why I am scum with mith.

Guessing it's Equi/Llamarble now, but I didn't think you were scum with mith. I thought you were scum with Llamarble.

[Chris B]

Unless it's Equinox-Amrun and Equinox is saying she's dumb for voting her partner? I don't get why she would do that though...

I think that was sarcasm. '...yeah, I'm dumb. Dumb like a FOX!'

[Chris B]

Evidently not. Blindingly well played, Mith. It's Llamarble, which means I picked the wrong one to lynch.

[Chris B]

Amrun, you had both of them dead to rights. Your town/scum reads were SO right I found it suspicious. Damn.

[Chris B]

D3VC6:
Llamamarble (4): Amrun, ChrisB, mith, Thor
Amrun (2): Llamarble, Sotty
LlamaFluff (1): DH
mith (1): Llamafluff

Not Voting (1): Equinox

With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch.



Jesus. Mith, that was amazing. Town had the game won RIGHT there. Damn it.

[Chris B]

Well, I don't know whether to be proud or to feel worse because I couldn't follow through.

Why didn't I get nk?

Likewise, Amrun. I think I'm feeling better, because we had it there. Great play by Mith, but town threw it away with that lynch. That's astonishing.

Oh, man, you guys must have been in hysterics when Llamafluff made us all promise not to lynch Llamarble.

Damn, Amrun - I maintain that my case on you right at the end there was strong. I convinced myself, but seriously, your reads were actually frighteningly good. It really was to the point where it made more sense that you knew who was town.

[Chris B]

Ha. Nicely done.

[Chris B]

I don't know what the culture is here, but I would have massively preferred tighter time limits in this game. It felt interminably long. I haven't looked at other games, due to concentrating on this one, so it may just be that this was normal, but Jesus. I wouldn't have signed on if I'd known it would be months long.