Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

[DemonHybrid]

At Michelle's... I thought I was going to get on this morning, but I overslept... will have to catch up tomorrow.

I expect more DH votes by then, slackers.

So, you don't even look at what I have to say about Chris B?

Duly noted.

[InflatablePie]

Hrm.

No "slips" or "changes", just you probably skimming and still not listening to people.

To be fair, I can only trust my own reads, really.

Regardless of myself possibly misreading your post, I still don't like this. Why? Because Amrun came out and defended you instead of letting you address the issue first. Why would town!Amrun have a motivation to do such a thing? I can only see you two being scum together right now.


EQUINOX

DON'T BELIEVE AMRUN'S LIES

THEY'RE SCUM TOGETHER, DON'T YOU SEE

DON'T YOU SEE IT, EQUINOX

?!

[Amrun]

I didn't defend him. I don't see it that way.

You were calling llamafluff scum for something he never did or said. I'm not going to sit by and let that happen to anyone.

I have no idea how you reached the conclusions you reached from his post. There were several leaps of logic that were just in outer space.

You want it to be defending? Llama is town, so sure, whatever. Knock yourself out.

[Sotty7]

But why didn't you wait for Llamafluff to respond before jumping in?

[Amrun]

Because I thought that Ipie would regard that as Llama "backtracking" when in fact, it was ipie grosssly misinterpreting what had been said in the first place.

I thought he might listen to a third partym. I didn't sit there and think about it for 10 years. I saw ipie derping it ad thought I'd correct it, especially as other people were lisrening to him for som inexplicable reason.

I wish someone had done the same for TFH and mith when they were arguing in outer space on day1.

[Sotty7]

Actually reading the exchange again I see Equi basically asked Amrun to explain the supposed misrep. Still, there was little need to make post 641 before Fluff had a chance to respond first.

Reading Llama's explanation I can see what he is saying even if I don't like the pairing theory. Amrun stepping in raises an eyebrow though.

[Sotty7]

So Amrun you have a really strong town read on Fluff?

[InflatablePie]

especially as other people were lisrening to him for som inexplicable reason.

Other people = Equinox

...that's about it.


Fluff saying that DH, one of his townreads that he's flaunted for FOREVER should be lynched before Amrun, is also unsettling, don't you think, Sotty?


Hmm... think I'll wait for others to chime in on these exchanges as well. *goes to lurk*

[Equinox]

Because I thought that Ipie would regard that as Llama "backtracking"

[Amrun]

Because I thought that Ipie would regard that as Llama "backtracking"

Read the post(s) again. Ipie even says as much.

And once again, he demonstrates an astonishing ability to misunderstand.

Llama's townread on m is stronger than his townread on DH. Capisce? This is basic reading comprehension, people.

And yes, sotty, llama is one of my top townreads. I posted a list a couple of pages ago.

[Equinox]

Oh, no, that's not what I was reacting to. I was shocked at your explanation. If LlamaFluff is town, he should be able to defend himself on his own terms. Instead, you didn't trust him to be able to do that and galloped in, banners raised, for fear that InflatablePie would accuse LlamaFluff of backtracking.

I'm not against people defending their town reads -- I do that myself -- but in this case, that was a poor move, as you could have simply waited to get reactions from both InflatablePie and LlamaFluff before acting. I'm just stuck deciding on whether or not you'd do this as scum for your scum buddy because it's too bloody obvious of a move, but...

damn

.

[Chris B]

Okay, I've found that Thor is a difficult person to get a read on in some ways, however, I think he's town.

The main difficulty I have with his play is how secretively he plays - he doesn't seem to like having to justify his actions. However, I like the fact that he went after DGB fairly early on.

Looking back through his posts, though, he never really explains the about face on Mith. Or if he did, I missed it. So, how about it Thor? Could you explain it please.

[Amrun]

Oh, no, that's not what I was reacting to. I was shocked at your explanation. If LlamaFluff is town, he should be able to defend himself on his own terms. Instead, you didn't trust him to be able to do that and galloped in, banners raised, for fear that InflatablePie would accuse LlamaFluff of backtracking.

I'm not against people defending their town reads -- I do that myself -- but in this case, that was a poor move, as you could have simply waited to get reactions from both InflatablePie and LlamaFluff before acting. I'm just stuck deciding on whether or not you'd do this as scum for your scum buddy because it's too bloody obvious of a move, but...

damn

.

I didn't really take 10 years thinking about it. I just said something offhand about how ipie was reading some other post on some other continent in some other game, you asked me to clarify, so I did.

I think Llamafluff could explain himself perfectly clearly, and I never have any issue understanding his posts.

Ipie, however, suffers from some severe confirmation bias, and I don't have as much faith in his ability to interpret posts, as has been demonstrated throughout the game. That's why his reads are very wrong (I think, anyway). No offense, ipie, that's just what I think.

[InflatablePie]

Ipie, however, suffers from some severe confirmation bias.

Hey, mudslinging!

How's THAT for confirmation bias?

[Amrun]

Ipie, however, suffers from some severe confirmation bias.

Hey, mudslinging!

How's THAT for confirmation bias?

Should I pretend that you don't? You twist everything someone you suspect does to be scummy, often blatantly misinterpreting the posts and intents of the posts to do so.

I, however, believe these to be genuine mistakes in your case.

[Chris B]

My case on Sotty relies primarily on DrippingGoofball.

She gave scum reads on Sociopath (328) and Thor (319).

She gave town reads on Llamarble once, (post 183), Equinox once, (305) and Sotty7 THREE TIMES(post 166) (post 178) (post 183).

Would scum really try to clear town for no good reason?

Can't defend this.

No, you can't. And I spotted it before I spotted this post from SocioPath not long before he was murderlised.

DrippingGoofball is probably scum. Hai Goofball. No, I'm not obvtown, sorry.

You've obvtown... AGAIN. You just can't help it.

She LOVES calling her scum buddies OBVTOWN.
She has done the EXACT same thing to ME, as we were SCUM TOGETHER.

I've played many games with DGB, and have been scum with her several times.
AND FOLKS, DGB CERTAINLY AINT TOWN THIS GAME.
She isn't as unreadable as many people seem to think.

The argument was made earlier that one scummy thing done by Dripping Goofball was to make the 'alt' argument against me. I agree with this.

On that note: Sotty's post 20:

Vote: Chris B

Alt detected.

Perhaps you should re-read the start of the game again?

I voted you and accused you of being an alt for two reasons. One, if you were an alt I wanted to pressure you into revealing your true account and two; if you were new to the site, jumping into a high profile game I wanted to get a read on you ASAP. This is backed up by me being annoyed that Equi jumped in and protected you right off the bat. I speicfically wanted

your

reaction. But once I realized who you were and who's team you were on I realized you were prob town.

What you did in reaction to other people's actions is not necessarily a compelling argument for what your reasons were for doing it in the first place. I know what you did once Equinox went 'obviously town', but not why you did it in the first place. And since it was put forward as being a strong reason why DGB was scum, it applies to you as well.

In the same breath, the difference between me and DGB in this situation is that once I realized you were a new player, I completely dropped the alt accusation. I don't mention it after my first vote on you. This is a big difference.

This is a better argument - however, to put it simply, I think you're a better player than DGB. Which means I suspect you're more likely to be better scum. The 'alt' point got me looking at you, but if you do turn out to be scum, have words with DGB before you play scum with her again, as her 'obv town, obv town and THRICE OBV TOWN' is damaging.

With regards to Sotty7 being the fifth voter on DGB. I've never liked the argument that scum are more likely to bus on a certain number vote than another one. So I'm not comfortable wth the reverse either, and the fifth vote being the obviously town position. There's still time in there to climb down on a vote.

I have no idea what you're talking about here. No one has said that because I was the 5th voter I'm obvtown.

Someone, and I can't remember who and haven't been able to find it yet, made the point about tipping points on lynches. So I thought it was worth mentioning my position on vote numbers.

On top of that, she's ignored posts of mine twice now. This post here isn't the first time I've pointed out that the 'alt detected' vote. Also, I've already addressed the scum daytalk thing.

?

The first you just said that I also commented on you being a possible alt. You make no conclusions or ask me no questions, what am I supposed to say? And what's this rabble about day talk? I read the discussion and didn't see a need to comment on it, I was happy with your explaination.

You're right, and I apologise. It was DH being all DH, and I thought it was you because I read both posts during the same catch-up.

If you want me to comment on something specific you should ask me. I can't read minds, though I wish I could.

I suppose the question is somewhat obvious, but why should I remove this action and put it on someone else?

Vote: Sotty7

[InflatablePie]

Should I pretend that you don't? You twist everything someone you suspect does to be scummy, often blatantly misinterpreting the posts and intents of the posts to do so.

I, however, believe these to be genuine mistakes in your case.

Honestly, you and Fluff are my scumteam pick at the moment, so obviously damn near everything you two post are going to seem suspicious to me.

You are, however, attacking my playstyle and/or skill in order to discredit my argument. There's a difference between this and just saying "hey, you misread that" and leaving it as such, which you shouldn't need to post (as town) when it's directed at another player.

To be honest, if you just would have said "okay whatever" instead of even going as far as to defend Fluff AGAIN in 659 after I ask Sotty a question, I would have let you off the hook. "Pie, you're nuts. k?" would have probably gotten me off your case.

But no, the middle two parts in 659 are what's gotten me uncomfortable right now.

At this point, if you flip town, I'm going to have to re-evaluate all of my reads.

Unvote, Vote: Amrun

PEdit: what the hell is that a ChrisB wall

[Chris B]

For the record, Sotty's vote placement was discussed by Mith in this post.

DemonHybrid: You're twisting; I didn't say I was looking at the people off wagon

because

I didn't find those on wagon suspicious. What I said was that I was intended to read through the wagon later - the (I thought rather obvious, but apparently not) implication being that there wasn't much urgency to look at those players who I wasn't suspicious of, contrasted to the off-wagon group who I then went on to analyze.

---

So, on to the wagon:

The most compelling point I see against Sevei is the timing (Sotty, 362) - it could be that she believed DGB was going down no matter what she tried and wanted to be the hammer knowing how the flip would go, whereas town with suspicions on DGB may not have been in such a hurry (ChrisB?). Still, if Sevei were scum, hammering would practically be an act of resignation unless the other scum were

also

on the wagon. I think she's town.

Sotty has read town the entire game, so being on the wagon just gives her extra brownie points. Her "aw, DGB is away, I guess this wagon will have to lag" post worries me, but I think if there's scum on the wagon it's earlier than here; 5 votes is serious business, while an earlier vote could have been "pressure" without the intent to follow through (only to be trapped by the near-inevitability of the lynch as it hit L-2 and L-1).

Among those earlier voters, InflatablePie is obvtown. He turned the situation from "a couple of votes on scum" to "a wagon on scum with momentum". Thor is pretty close to confirmed as well; he certainly never seems to be looking for a way off the wagon, plus DGB's last gasp was a vote for him.

Process of elimination leaves Equinox, and the way he got on the wagon does bother me a bit: "Oh, hey, DrippingGoofball only has 3 votes. I want in." - I get the impression that this was more a pressure vote than a "lynch, rawr" vote, but by the time he comes back from V/LA DGB is at 6 and what's he going to do?

Anyway, if the Word of the Mod came down from on high and told us "Thou shalt find the scum, one on and one off", Equinox would be my best guess for the on-wagon buddy... but I am more suspicious of everyone off-wagon (except Chris B, perhaps), and in the absence of divine intervention I think it's more likely both scum are off.

---

In my team thread, Ythill looked into DGB's iso and came to his own conclusions... I'm hesitant to put much faith in anything relying on DGB-posts (she's the queen of WIFOM), but he makes some good points:

His focus is on 110, her scumlist. He doesn't think she'd put buddies in the town group with her (Equinox and InflatablePie = town), and also doesn't think she would put both buddies in the scum group (White Flag), so DemonHybrid as scum means Thor and Chris B are town. Also, we have the group of Klazam/LlamaFluff/Llamarble/Sevei/Sotty7 containing at least one scum, but Ythill assumes both to proceed:

In 168, DGB adds Sevei to the scum group (points to Sevei town).

In 178, DGB tries to direct Llamarble away from Klazam (points to Llamarble town and/or Klazam scum). Ythill sees something similar in 122 (Llamarble town and/or Sotty7 scum), but I find this one much weaker.

He comes to a conclusion of Sotty/Klazam, but I'm not sure how he's ruling out LlamaFluff (I think he got mixed up and eliminated Thor instead - basically saying what I posted about Thor above - thinking Thor was part of the group he was looking at). I'll ask him about that. I think Sotty is town, and where we diverge is when he assumes both scum are in his group of five, while I think DemonHybrid is scummy scum scum.

[Amrun]

Should I pretend that you don't? You twist everything someone you suspect does to be scummy, often blatantly misinterpreting the posts and intents of the posts to do so.

I, however, believe these to be genuine mistakes in your case.

Honestly, you and Fluff are my scumteam pick at the moment, so obviously damn near everything you two post are going to seem suspicious to me.

You are, however, attacking my playstyle and/or skill in order to discredit my argument. There's a difference between this and just saying "hey, you misread that" and leaving it as such, which you shouldn't need to post (as town) when it's directed at another player.

To be honest, if you just would have said "okay whatever" instead of even going as far as to defend Fluff AGAIN in 659 after I ask Sotty a question, I would have let you off the hook. "Pie, you're nuts. k?" would have probably gotten me off your case.

But no, the middle two parts in 659 are what's gotten me uncomfortable right now.

At this point, if you flip town, I'm going to have to re-evaluate all of my reads.

Unvote, Vote: Amrun

PEdit: what the hell is that a ChrisB wall

I'd really appreciate it if you actually listened to what Fluff and even mith have said. I don't make sense as scum in really any team. It sounds rather lame when I say it as opposed to other people saying it, but objectively, it is true.

I'm not trying to call you a bad player. I'm just saying that in this particular game, you're letting blind confidence in your reads distract you from evaluating. It's happened to me before, for sure. It's hard to see it when you're in it.

Go look at Open 289 Hardboiled if you want to see me being pants on head town with wrong reads that wouldn't listen. What a sad game for me.

[TheButtonmen]

D2VC9:

Sotty (3): LlamaFluff, Thor, Chris
DH (2): mith, Sotty
Amrun (2): Llamarble, IP
mith (2): Amrun,
Llamarble (1): Sevei
ChrisB (1): DH
Llamafluff (1): Equinox

Not Voting:

With 11 alive it's 6 to lynch.

[LlamaFluff]

No "slips" or "changes", just you probably skimming and still not listening to people.

To be fair, I can only trust my own reads, really.

Keep refusing to listen to anything someone you suspect says. I guarentee you that it will lose you games as town if it hasnt already lost you games in the past.

Regardless of myself possibly misreading your post, I still don't like this. Why? Because Amrun came out and defended you instead of letting you address the issue first. Why would town!Amrun have a motivation to do such a thing? I can only see you two being scum together right now.

Tunnel tunnel tunnel.

Look, there is plenty of motivation for Amrun-town to defend me just like as town I have motivation to defend Amrun. I want to keep someone I have a town read on AND someone who I think I can force others to have a town read on alive beacuse its taking someone who is in the lynch pool out of it. Big bonus points there. Amrun is defending me probably inpart due to how much I stand to help her in the game, but also due to what her reads are. Have you NEVER seen town full on defend town before? I mean, I DO that in almost every game I play, and see someone else do it in almost every game. Get your head out of your ass and look at OTHER OPTIONS, even just CONSIDER them, and then tell me what you think.

IP, if you are going to listen to me about one damn thing this game, shut up and listen to me about this. Amrun is a bad lynch. There are very few possible partners to her, and the interactions from DGB with her constant passive attacks on Klazam are not something that really are indicative of scum partners. Move on.

[Amrun]

If anyone is interested, see Cold War mafia where Llama went so far as to fake a governor role to save me from a lynch. We were both town.

I learned something valuable from him that day: don't let your town reads get lynched if you can help it.

I feel very strongly that Llama is town, and I'm not going to let someone misrepresent his posts so badly without so much as correcting them.

That's just how it is going to be. Scumreads are only half of a mafia game. The other half is town reads and they're just as important.

[Equinox]

Have you NEVER seen town full on defend town before? I mean, I DO that in almost every game I play, and see someone else do it in almost every game. Get your head out of your ass and look at OTHER OPTIONS, even just CONSIDER them, and then tell me what you think.

Oh, I've defended town reads before. In fact, I've done it in this game. However, I believe there is a key difference between simply defending someone and interfering; what Amrun did was unnecessary, and she said herself that she didn't want you to say something and have InflatablePie accuse you. That stinks. Why not wait until InflatablePie makes that accusation and use that to get reactions from both you and InflatablePie? Even if she has strong town reads on both you and InflatablePie, it'd be best to let you defend yourself to allow everyone else the chance to evaluate

your

reaction and not hers.

I think Llamafluff could explain himself perfectly clearly, and I never have any issue understanding his posts.

Never before have I seen someone miss the point by so far. In fact, I couldn't find a pony picture adequate enough to describe my reaction.

---

The cross-defending between Amrun and LlamaFluff is giving me the twitches. I'm going to take a bit to think this over because I'm one of those folks who likes to take a few years to deliberate on things. That and I'll need a few sets of eyes to take a look at this and tell me if I'm being insane.

[InflatablePie]

The irony of Equinox beating me to what I was going to say in response to Llama...

If anyone is interested, see Cold War mafia where Llama went so far as to fake a governor role to save me from a lynch. We were both town.

I was in Cold War Mafia for a little bit. This doesn't give you any scumpoints for bringing it up, but nor does it give you townpoints. Same for him.

I'm not going to let someone misrepresent his posts so badly without so much as correcting them.

Then you and I have come to a disagreement on how to play a game of mafia as town.

Keep refusing to listen to anything someone you suspect says. I guarentee you that it will lose you games as town if it hasnt already lost you games in the past.

I've had games where I've been suspicious of someone, eventually dropped my suspicions or didn't pursue them, and they flipped scum. That hurts worse than being wrong if your scumreads end in mislynches.

If either of you flip town, I'll reconsider my reads, because a lot of my logic does hinge on the interactions between the two of you, especially today. Call me crazy, or terrible, but that's what I'm sticking with.

Amrun is a bad lynch. There are very few possible partners to her

You're a possible partner to her, don't you realize this? Just like from your point of view I'm a possible partner to, say, mith/Thor/Equi/Chris - four people who I've had a solid townread on. Or even Marble, being that I've defended him on VCA reasoning alone. Out of all the possibilities I've looked at, the links between you two is astounding. I can't see two townies defending each other so damn hard.

But fine. Let me pull my head out of my colon for a second. Honestly, it's possible,

if

I'm wrong about one read, you're not the scum here. You, as scum, could have easily jumped on Amrun for answering what I directed at you. Hell, I've done that before as town so I'd view it as a pro-town move. But Amrun, she can be scum now without you necessarily having to be. I find her jumping in much more scummy than anything you've done, and I'm willing to back off of you because she can still be scum even if there wasn't already a link between you both.

Show me how neither you or Amrun (mostly the latter but I'd appreciate both) can be scum, using only proof via DGB interaction, and I may re-consider. Amrun, you can do this as well.

[LlamaFluff]

Aggressive jump on Klazam is good, though. I agree with #76

Early agreement with a Klazam case worded in such a way that encourages me to keep up an attack on him. When Klazam is not a top suspect of DGBs it make it unlikely that the player is scum, since there is no justification for continuing to keep me on a player whos scum flip wont make her look good or bad. If she was trying to argue for Klazam-scum then this would be null, but encoraging me to attack a partner who she has a neutral? Makes little sense to me.

Thats basically one of those things that just doesnt look like a bus. Busses are not really passive for the most part, since those tend to not net the town points that a bus is supposed to get.

Best I can offer is to why im town with those interaction is that I WOULD have bussed in that situation around the time that it was obvious who was winning that battle. I like to play more lone wolf as scum then most people do, and do massive damage to the town when I get the "probably town" lable. I have even bussed somewhat recently in a situation where I didnt know what the case on my partner really was just because the game was at a point where a bus would leave me in a scenario where I could ride out F5 to an easy endgame win as last scum. Its not my scum-MO to get caught looking bad from a partners flip, I put a whole lot of thought into my scum game such that I pick my pushes and cases not on who looks "scummy" but whos flips will leave me in the best position. As scum the DGB one (or even marble if he is town) would have really put me in a situation where I was up for lynch consideration by D3. Im not an idiot as scum, which is why I havent been lynched as scum without a cop guilty (or that mod-error game) in almost two years.