Mini 928 - Bloodlust Mafia Remix - Over!

[almightybob]

/confirm.

[almightybob]

Haylen has a 100% record for winning this setup as SK. If that's not a clear meta, I don't know what is.

Vote: Haylen

[almightybob]

Claim Friday Day Cop Penguin Fishnet Vig Double Voting Microwave Madscientist Aboriginal Duck Vanilla Townie

There's no such role. Only scum need to fakeclaim. I knew I was right!

[almightybob]

i play always the same way.

You might think you do, but hardly anyone can play exactly the same. If you could, you would be practically the perfect Mafia player.

[almightybob]

Lol, i've only just cottoned on to why AB knew I was SK in the last bloodlust...

For those that don't know - I created and moderated this setup in Mini 851, which Haylen won as SK. Hence my RVS comments regarding meta.
Oh and congratulations on getting engaged Haylen



Anyway, back on-topic:

I'm not hugely impressed with fifi's post 91. Particularly the way she says "pushing for my mislynch", as if it's established that she

would

be a mislynch. It looks like a soft Townclaim to me, and I don't like softclaims.
Plus, the vote looks like pure OMGUS.

Then in post 94, she seems to push the idea that Concerned is somehow scummy for forgetting that he was voting you in the RVS. No connection here that I can see.

Then again in post 97, she seems to be confused as to how lurking could be scummy. Lurking is a good and common scum tactic for several reasons:
It keeps you at the back of people's minds, so you don't receive as much pressure or scrutiny.
It allows you to post less, so that you provide less information for people to get a read on you.
It allows you to keep your options open by rarely expressing a solid opinion or taking a stance on issues or players.

These are all reasons why staying out of the spotlight can be scummy.

[almightybob]

Yeah, but i am kind of IN the spotlight, bob... And are you suspicious of me softclaiming town? That is hilarious sorry.

Yes, you are in the spotlight. Concerned was suggesting that you were trying to shift discussion away from yourself, in order to get out of the spotlight. That was his whole point.

And yes, I am. Why is that hilarious?
You state that your lynch would be a mislynch as if it is a fact, thus implicitly stating that you are Town as if it is a fact. You are not showing us that you're Town, you're telling us. I don't like that.

Secondly, attack, defend- draw relative conclusions, mislynch. Everyones going to be jumping to conclusions D1. Maybe we should try something else.

Why do you assume that the conclusions we draw will result in a mislynch? And what else do you suggest?

[almightybob]

i didn't even think what my alignment was, nor i tought about making it clear in the post. Now that you point it, i see it as a town tell. A intentional one, and thats what makes it a town tell. And the fact that you are using such a weak argument against me, makes me suspect you a lot.

You say it was intentional, and yet you also said you didn't think about it. Which is it?

Also, I fail to see how trying to subtly seed information as fact like this is a town tell.

I think its too early in the game to be closeminded. In fact, I don't see the point in being closeminded ingame fullstop. We're supposed to be scum-hunting, not attacking anything we can find, diluting the situation further. This was a weak-based argument that is just cluttering up the thread.

Surely attacking every perceived weakness, instead of just some, is the definition of open-mindedness? How do you scumhunt if not by pressing and attacking positions and arguments?

As for what I suggest, I'm not a fan of RQS, but it's a start.

I think we're past the stage of RQS or RVS. There are a couple of decent leads here already, certainly better than anything we would get from RQS. That would be a step backwards now.
I'm not sure I like this attempt to undo what progress we have made by going back to another equally useless Random *blank* Stage.

[almightybob]

Hey, just a quick prod response. Still here, still alive. I'll try to have some useful thoughts up very soon.

[almightybob]

Sorry for the poor showing from me guys. Anyway, some thoughts on what's come up since my last post regarding various players:

I still don't like

Dr Cyanide

's push to move us back to an RQS in 121. Let me be clear - RQS would

not

be a step forward. We have leads to pursue. RQS and RVS are useful for getting the ball rolling, nothing more. We're past that. I don't know why Dr C kept pushing this.
Although Civil Scum did make a good point in 131 that there's not much scum motivation to stifle discussion if it was between two Townies. Cyanide/fifi scumbuddies perhaps? Certainly if one turns out to be scum I will be looking

very

hard at the other.
Also, Dr C does over-react to the scrutiny quite badly. However, I'm not sure that this is necessarily a scumtell - more an experience-tell. Learning to keep your cool under examination and pressure is about experience in Mafia more than alignment.

Civil Scum

is making some good pro-Town points, although he does seem to be carrying a lot of bias from a previous game into this one. If the game in question is over, could you link me please Civil so I can see why you (and a few others) are so hung up on referencing it in this game?

Not impressed one bit by

Mr Suave

's reappearance just to commit Gambler's Fallacy then disappear again. If he was serious with his remark, then it just looks like trying to paint a target who won't argue back as scummy. I don't like that. All he's doing is popping in to make pointless comments that serve no scumhunting purpose.

Haylen

- if you're too busy to play the game, replace out. Don't lurk the whole way through it. Your "Oh but I'm lurking in all my games right now" just tells me that you've taken on too many games at once. If you're going to raise the bar, fine, but do it quick. Lurking is not OK just because you always do it - that just makes you always a liability. I'm looking forward to your PBPA.

fifi

- still all over the place. The pressure on you seems to have subsided (much to your relief I'm sure) but don't think you're off the hook. Particularly your vote on Haylen had weak, weak reasoning behind it. There are pro-Town reasons to conceal your role just as there are scum reasons.
Also, AtE defence in 178 is not a defence.
On the other hand, your 185 reaction to Civil's hugely suspect 184 is exactly what I felt when reading it just now. This gains you a few Town points in my eyes.

havingfitz

has made a good start to the game. I likes it. I'd like to know what you think of 184/185 fitz.

Preview edit: And Haylen - McZombie has been replaced by havingfitz.

[almightybob]

Um... what the hell was that post, Dr C?

Sudden 180 on Civil, seemingly random attack on Concerned, claiming that all your previous stuff was a ploy? Not buying it.

Unvote, vote: Dr Cyanide

[almightybob]

Oh, and let's not forget the ever-helpful spoonful of WIFOM in the final line. Wow.

[almightybob]

@all...what are your thoughts regarding lurkers...whether they be active or nowhere to be found?

Much the same as you really. True lurking, i.e. not accessing the site for a few days in a row, is a nulltell. There's just as many reasons why Town would not come on for a few days as there are scum reasons.
Active lurking is slightly different. Avoiding one thread while posting in another is strange, although getting caught up in one game in particular when something interesting happens is something that happens to me as either alignment. But what bv's doing is dodgy, yes.

Haylen, fitz asked you about your self-voting meta as Town in 222, where he points out that from what he saw you self-vote in anti-Town or Power Roles. Not sure why you didn't address that part of his post, but could you please?

[almightybob]

And I think that's all of them. You will notice that twice I was an ordinary townie.

When you say that's all of them, do you mean that's all your games, or that's all your self-votes? If it's the latter, do you have lots of games where you didn't self-vote?

[almightybob]

Too many lurkers this close to the deadline. #$%^&

Agreed. It's, what, 2 days to go, and we're still nowhere near a majority?

People I would be happy to lynch today: Dr Cyanide, fifi.
People I would accept as today's lynch if it comes down to that or no-lynch: bv310, Mr Suave.
People I don't want to lynch today: everyone else.

[almightybob]

Your unwavering stance on your vote preferences as shown by the last line of your quote above and this:

Look, I'll lynch either Fifi or Cyanide. But only on the condition that the one we don't lynch is lynched tomorrow, no questions asked.

...is very anti town IMO in that it seems like you are trying to direct others into your tunnel on fifi. Expressing your suspects is one thing...your approach just does not seem very townie to me.

Agreed. I must have missed that line from Civil Scum, because I would not have liked that one bit had I seen it. "No questions asked" is

never

a phrase a Townie should be using. Questions are all we really have.


Regarding the deadline - The mod said in yesterday's vote count (3rd March) that the deadline was in 2 days (5th March) at 4:30pm EST.
So for you and me fitz, that's Friday 5th March, 9:30pm GMT.

Fifi

... why did you claim when you did? What were your thoughts regarding timing of claim?
Tell us more about your role. How does the recruiting work? What happens if you try to recruit scum or the SK? What happens if you try to recruit a Town PR? I ask because the mod may have changed these mechanics since I ran the setup.
Once fifi answers these questions, I have something of a plan to propose based on the mechanics of her role. This plan could possibly help Town immensely if fifi is telling the truth, and potentially out her as a liar if she isn't. So

fifi, please answer these questions, especially the role mechanic ones, ASAP

.

I agree with fitz that unless fifi is CCed, she probably shouldn't be the lynch for today. I'm not saying I buy her claim, but we don't want to throw away a PR just like that.


We are in real danger of a no-lynch here. If it comes down to it, I will join the bv wagon proposed by fitz to avoid a no-lynch.

[almightybob]

I don't think she would risk taking a chance with the 1:4 odds that there isn't one in the game to CC her

She could be just trying to out the real Cult Leader. Although if you're going to fakeclaim and try to out a PR, I wouldn't have chosen Cult. I'd probably have picked Jailkeeper or Vig.
Anyway, that line of reasoning degenerates into WIFOM. The point is, depending on how the role mechanics work (or how she claims they work) we could potentially make use of this.

And yeah, I didn't realise bv was being replaced. In that case, I'd rather either Mr Suave or Cyanide.

[almightybob]

What i understood from my role, is that in case i target someone dangerous i ll be helpless..

This quote says that if you target scum or SK, you lose your powers.

I supose i could say who i am going to target, so in case i die, you know that person is scum.

This one says that if you target scum or SK, you die.


Plan the details of your story before you fakeclaim to avoid contradictions next time, scum.

Unvote, vote: fifi

.

[almightybob]

Almightybob: Fifi saying "helpless" could also be meaning that he'd die and wouldn't be able to do anything about it.

Hm. Maybe.

Fifi: If you target scum/SK, do you die or do you lose your recruiting power?

If the consequence is that you die, please target Mr Suave tonight.

Then if you die, we'll all know he's scum. If you don't, we'll have a shady character as confirmed Town.
(That was my plan, by the way - to use fifi's recruit as a kind of Cop investigation. If she tells everyone who she's gonna target, then we'll know from the Night deaths about that person's role.)

And since I've found him scummy most of the game and it's getting scarily close to deadline,

Unvote, vote: Dr Cyanide

.

[almightybob]

Holy hell, bv's replacement actually voted

for

a no-lynch? How did I miss that?

Here we are trying our best to avoid a no-lynch and an already suspicious playerslot comes out just firing on all anti-Town cylinders.

You just eclipsed Dr C in scumminess for today.

Unvote, vote: Darkstrike_11

.

Unofficial votecount:

The1fifi (1) - julienvonwolfe
julienwolfe (1) - ConfidAnon
Dr.Cyanide (2) - Civil Scum, Concerned
havingfitz (1) - MrSuave
Civil Scum (1) - The1fifi
Concerned (1) - Dr.Cyanide
MrSuave (1) - Mr.Sandman
Darkstrike_11 (3) - havingfitz, Haylen, almightybob

No lynch (1) Darkstrike_11

Not Voting (0)

And there's no reduced majority at deadline in this game, so get voting peoplez.

[almightybob]

Gah, ninja'd by fitz.



I suppose that's true. Maybe it wasn't such a good plan after all. Would have been interesting to see fifi's reaction to my plan though, see if she panicked a bit at being possibly rumbled. Oh well.


Anyway, after that shocking no-lynch push by Darkstrike, I'd be more than happy to lynch him. I'd also be happy to lynch Cyanide, and it's conceivably a more achievable lynch. If fitz and I both vote for him, that would be 4 votes for Dr C.

Are there 3 other active players who could make up the rest of the lynch?

[almightybob]

Vote Sandman

. I am not giving info away so cheaply.

So what will it take for you to tell us?
How does you holding back information about the cult help Town? There's no pro-Town reason to hold back on whether you successfully recruited someone or not.
Obviously don't tell us

who

you recruited if you got someone, but you gotta give us something or it just looks like you're panicking scum trying to bullshit your way out of having to commit to a lie about your night choice.

[almightybob]

I was gonna post right after I finished my school projects off but the day ended too soon D:

The day ended at deadline, which was a known time since the beginning of the game. Frankly, this is a bullcrap excuse. If you had wanted to revote before the end of the day, you had ample opportunity. Don't try to pass it off as if the day suddenly and unexpectedly ended before you thought it would.

Is there any reason why fifi shouldn't tell us who he recruited? The way I see it, we'd have two confirmed townies. If fifi really is a cult leader, he's already a big target and I honestly don't think there's much of a chance of the cult getting much bigger than it is, if he even recruited someone.

Honest question, never played in a game with a cult leader.

I'd rather she didn't say who her Cult partner is unless it becomes absolutely necessary, i.e. she's about to be lynched or something. There's no sense giving the scum the name of another confirmed Town unless we have to.
If we need to, the recruit can step forward and confirm fifi's Town status, but until then it's probably best to maintain a low profile.

Darkstrike was incredibly stupid and scummy for voting no lynch. When he did it, there was still enough time to make a wagon on anyone. I can see no pro-town reason for doing so.

Agreed. I really didn't like that play. Particularly given that there was already a good deal of suspicion on that slot, it's going to take a

lot

to sway me away from a Darkstrike lynch today. That was the out-and-out scummiest thing that happened in D1, no question.

Vote: Darkstrike

[almightybob]

fifi, I would like a response to post 349 please.

[almightybob]

How convenient.

Why havingfitz?

[almightybob]

Town self-hammer is fail. That's not playing to your win condition in any sense.

Welcome Llama. Why is Sandman scum in your eyes? Also I don't really understand why you trust fifi's claim so much.
Also, what is your interpretation of your replacee Dr Cyanide? Several people, myself included, suspected him heavily on D1.

I should make it clear at this point that I don't really understand the concept of a pro-town cult leader. I had thought that this would become clearer as the game unfolded, but nope. Are the cult third party or pro-town, and if they're pro-town, how are they different to normal townies?

The Cult is pro-Town in the sense that they win with the Town. They cannot win independently. They are different to normal Townies in that they know that the other Cult members are 100% confirmed Townies, and they are able to talk to each other at Night.

Thats exactly scum strategy. Roleblock me, and turn town against me, making them doubt my claim and go for a mislynch.

That's exactly scum strategy. Claim to be constantly roleblocked, claim to be left alive by the scum for WIFOM reasons, then make this case as your defence.


I agree with fitz. MrSuave's play has been appalling. Reading him in iso, he's been posting just enough to appear semi-active, but none of his posts have any real content. It's like a case study in scum-lurking.

Vote: MrSuave

[almightybob]

As for who is scum, I'd say that bob or the fitz are scum. One of them is going for the easy kill, which most scum try to go for. Because yes, I play very very scummy =p.

What an incredibly stupid line of reasoning. "I'm playing very very scummy, but people who think I'm playing scummy must be scum".

[almightybob]

@bob - Why suave over sandman?

When I cast my vote, nobody had presented a case against Sandman. All you'd done is say "btw Sandman is scum" with no justification. I tend to ignore things like that unless people actually say why, so I didn't pursue it. MrSuave was at the forefront of my mind for scumminess when I cast my vote.

Now that you've presented an argument for why Sandman is scum, I'm reading it and seeing if there's anything there.

[almightybob]

But from my whole

insightful

post that's all you got for it? Really?

Fixed.

What did you

really

say in post 393 that is actually insightful or indeed useful?

First paragraph:

no-lynch is bad. We established this on D1.

Second paragraph:

out of nowhere the assertion that fifi was not blocked by the scum on N2. This, combined with fitz's last point in 399, makes it look like you're softclaiming JK. Are you? If you're gonna claim, just claim. Softclaims are a pain in the ass and not helpful to Town.

Third paragraph:

"It's OK guys, I always play anti-Town."

Fourth paragraph:

Ridiculous logic, which I can't honestly believe you're trying to defend. You admit you're acting scummy, yet you think it would somehow be scummy for people to attack you based on this. It's laughable.

[almightybob]

Not counterclaiming Suave's JK claim, but not really buying it either. Nobody forgets they're a PR. Plus julien raises a good point - why protect someone you think is scum on the very first night? When there was a fullclaim from fifi and a softclaim plus protection request from Haylen?

Nah, no way would any JK throw a protection out randomly on Civil Scum in that situation.

[almightybob]

Hm... true. I really hope someone does CC then, because this claim reeks of BS.

[almightybob]

Sounds like a good plan. We have nothing to lose from it anyway at this point. I'm up for that.

[almightybob]

Ouch. Massclaim this early. And quickly agreed with by almighty bob..

Fos LLama

It's a good thing you stand to be cleared by this massclaim, because you're seriously not good at logical thinking.

[almightybob]

Right, enough talk. Massclaim benefits Town right now. If you don't logically see that, you're wrong (looking at you fifi).

The1fifi
Mr.Sandman
almightybob
Concerned
TeWuicah
julienvonwolfe
Havingfitz
LlamaFluff
MrSuave

Rolling for claim order:

Original Roll String: 1d9

1 9-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

Original Roll String: 1d8

1 8-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

Original Roll String: 1d7

1 7-Sided Dice: (7) = 7

Original Roll String: 1d6

1 6-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

Original Roll String: 1d5

1 5-Sided Dice: (5) = 5

Original Roll String: 1d4

1 4-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

Original Roll String: 1d3

1 3-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

Original Roll String: 1d2

1 2-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

[almightybob]

Claim order is:

almightybob
Havingfitz
TeWuicah
Mr.Sandman
LLamaFluff
julienvonwolfe
MrSuave (claimed JailKeeper)
Concerned
The1fifi (claimed Cult Leader)


I am a

Vanilla Townie

.

Fitz?

[almightybob]

I took the playerlist from the mod's first post.

First dice roll picks one person from the 9.
Second dice roll picks one person from the remaining 8.
Third dice roll picks one person from the remaining 7.

etc etc etc.

[almightybob]

The more we talk about it, the more it will be ruined. I see what Llama is getting at. Let's just get on with the massclaim.

TeWuicah, your claim please.

[almightybob]

Does anyone strongly object to moving TeWuicah to the end of the massclaim list?

[almightybob]

Yeah let's just get on with this. It'll take God knows how long if we sit around waiting for a replacement.

Revised claim order:

almightybob (claimed VT)
Havingfitz (claimed VT)
Mr.Sandman
LLamaFluff
julienvonwolfe
MrSuave (claimed JailKeeper)
Concerned
The1fifi (claimed Cult Leader)
TeWuicah


Sandman, go.

[almightybob]

Why? You think getting replaced was a scum ploy to get to claim last? That seems a little unlikely to me.

But I suppose it's possible, and moving him to before Concerned would eliminate said plan without benefiting any scum.

[almightybob]

Last up is Concerned.

[almightybob]

Vanilla Townie

here, which means there are four scum within this list:
almightybob
Havingfitz
Mr.Sandman
LLamaFluff
julienvonwolfe
TeWuicah

Only from your point of view. The true list is 7 people long.
You're acting like it's an established fact that you're a confirmed Townie here. I don't like that.


Nevertheless, I have good Town reads on Concerned and fitz. I wouldn't be prepared to lynch either of them today. Likewise julien has seemed pro-Town throughout.
(Obviously all three cannot be Town and therefore one of my reads is wrong, but I'm still not prepared to take that chance until we have to.)

I agree that the out-and-out scummiest player has been Cyanide on D1. I think Llama's been a good scum replacement, but my doubts about that playerslot have never really been appeased. A good scum replacement is still a scum replacement.
Sandman or dramonic (formerly TeWuicah, formerly ConfidAnon): when I try to think of something notable they've said or done, I go blank, particularly dramonic's slot. Through the retrospectoscope, they could easily be scum/SK playing it low-key while the Town tie themselves in knots. I wouldn't object to either of their lynches, especially considering that from my point of view 66% of the unconfirmeds are scum.


So to summarise, I will lynch any of Sandman, dramonic or Llama today, with a slight preference for Llama. I will not lynch anyone else today.

[almightybob]

Llama - why have you eliminated TedramAnon from the suspect pool?
Look at the contributions. 7 posts from ConfidAnon (none of which were hugely useful), only 2 from TeWuicah. That doesn't suggest lurkerscum to you? Especially fiven the amount that's come up, there's been far more to talk about than 9 posts' worth over 20 pages.

Also note the attempt in TeWuicah's first post to extract the name of fifi's recruit, which now looks a lot like fishing. I disagreed with this at the time but didn't realise the full implications.

[almightybob]

EBWOP:

Especially

fiven

given

the amount that's come up

[almightybob]

If you look at the timing, I placed my vote against Suave

before

he claimed, when he looked seriously scummy. I don't see how that can really count against me.

Darkstrike - Yes, I was wrong about him, but to come in while all the active Town is trying frantically to avoid a no-lynch and then try (successfully) to undo that did not seem, and still does not seem, like pro-Town play. The large number of Town on that wagon shows that I was not alone in thinking that.

[almightybob]

You continue to miss the point that its a wagon on town who right now is looking to me like was intended to be an easy mislynch.

Also you didnt unvote him after the claim either. In fact you STILL are voting him.

The "easy mislynch" label is easy to apply in hindsight. I suppose everyone who voted against fifi is scum too?
If a player plays scummily, I vote for them. Suave was playing scummily. I voted for him.
Hell, I could easily say that what you're doing now is trying to paint Townies as scum for what was a perfectly valid conclusion to make at the time.

I haven't bothered unvoting him because it makes precisely 0 difference whether I do or not. Suave will not be lynched today, so who gives a crap whether I unvote or just switch my vote when I actually want to? It makes absolutely no difference whatsoever. He is in no danger of being lynched.

Would it really make you feel better if I had unvoted? Because if my unvoting would sway you in either direction, that says more about your suggestibility than it does about my alignment.

[almightybob]

Do you think the entire Suave wagon is/was town?

The wagon was
Mr.Suave (3): havingfitz, almightybob, The1fifi

fifi is Town, and I have a Town read on fitz, so yes.

So unvote him then. There is no point to have your vote on that wagon if you dont want him lynched.

And there's no point having a vote that isn't doing anything either. So both situations are completely equivalent. But

unvote

if it matters to you that much.

You are trying to make it look like you were not a part of the Suave wagon given the timing of his claim. You actually ignored the entire lack of vig arguement and kept pushing the Suave wagon after his claim.

No, I'm not. I fully acknowledge that I was part of the wagon. I voted for him because I thought he was scummy, he claimed, I expressed doubt and hoped for a counterclaim because he did not seem like a Town PR. I was on his wagon, and I do not deny it. What I DO deny is that I was wrong to do so. We only know that now, after the claim.


I didn't say much during the Vig argument because I was hoping that, if we didn't mention it too much, a stupid scum might claim Vig during the massclaim. It was a long shot I'll admit, but excessive explicit statements that there was clearly no Vig ruled that opportunity out anyway.

[almightybob]

So then you immediately saw that no one could possibly be the vig?

I'd thought it was incredibly unlikely since around the start of D3, yes. For 2 out of 3 kill attempts to be blocked each Night would be pretty far-fetched. I'm surprised at 1 out of 2 each night, so 2 out of 3 would take a lot of convincing.

[almightybob]

-.-

Everyone has claimed already. Please pay attention.

[almightybob]

Llama...when was the Mr Suave VC made?

Pre-claim

Then it should read:
MrSuave (2): havingfitz, almightybob

fifi voted Suave in 406,

after

his JK claim in 403.

[almightybob]

Sorry guys, unexpected RL business. Will have something for you later tonight.

[almightybob]

As far as I can see, not much has really happened over the last couple of pages. The game has slowed down a lot, and we're nearing deadline with no clear lynch candidate.
We need to hit Mafia today guys. Killing SK will not really help us, so if you have someone you think is SK, you should not want to lynch them today.

Going back and rereading since the massclaim, it looks like each player is willing to lynch the following people (please shout out if I'm wrong on any of these):

Netopalis

- Unclear
Mr.Sandman - JVW, Concerned (post 526)
almightybob - Sandman, dramonic, Llama (post 494)
Concerned - Llama, Sandman (post 490)
dramonic - fitz, Sandman (post 538)
julienvonwolfe - dramonic, Llama (post 552)
Havingfitz - Llama, dramonic, JVW (post 510)
LlamaFluff - Sandman, JVW, Concerned (post 493)

MrSuave

- Unclear

[sidenote]
It's really frustrating that our two confirmed Townies are the only two who haven't got any obvious suspects. I can forgive Neto for this because he's just replaced in, but for God's sake Suave, get your head out your ass and do something. Confirmed Town should be seizing the game by the balls while they're still alive to do so.
[/sidenote]


Anyway, to reorder the above suspects-list, that means we have the following potential wagons:

Sandman (4) - almightybob, Concerned, dramonic, Llama
Llama (4) - almightybob, Concerned, fitz, JVW
JVW (3) - Sandman, fitz, Llama
dramonic (3) - almightybob, JVW, fitz

And a couple of other, smaller wagons.


So,

Neto or Suave

- are either of you prepared to vote for either Llama or Sandman? Or if both of you agree on the same person, JVW or dramonic?

[almightybob]

@AMB - Unless you have to put up three, concerned isnt on my list really. The gap between second and third on my list is huge.

OK, noted. It doesn't really affect the main wagons though, so it's not a big deal right now.

[almightybob]

OK, so that means we have a potential lynching wagon of:

Sandman (5) - almightybob, Concerned, dramonic, Llama, Neto

I'm happy with that.

Vote: Mr.Sandman

[almightybob]

Bob, Llama and Fitz: Out of you three, one is scum and likely more. Which of the other two would each of you lynch over the other, given no other choice?

Llama, as should be clear from my listed suspects in 555. In fact, most people's answers to the question should be clear from 555.

[almightybob]

It is interesting that you and fitz would both lynch Llama, but not Sandman. Can you tell me what in particular about Fitz' play you like?

I probably could go back and pick out a few things that made me think he was Town, but I can't think of anything offhand other than his efforts to secure a D1 lynch seemed pro-Town to me. It's a sort of general pro-Town vibe, a gut read if you will.

I'm sure if I really had to I could make a Town-fitz case, but I don't really see the benefit. I highly doubt he'll be lynched today, and I certainly won't be voting for him, so I don't see the point in making that case right now. Once it comes down to determining who I read wrong, I'll do it then.


Right now, I want to hear from Concerned and dramonic. They previously said they would be willing to lynch Sandman, so if they both still feel that way that's the necessary 5.

[almightybob]

Out of curiosity, given that you've said Sandman, Dramonic and Llama are scum, who is more town: Concerned or I?

If I had to pick right now, I'd say Concerned. He has been a stronger Town read for me than you.

If we do manage to get to the point where I have to decide which of my Town reads is wrong, it will probably be you. Of course I'll reread to make sure etc, and the point is moot if we don't lynch scum consistently. But right now, you are the weakest of my Town reads.

You know, you could have just asked me to order everyone from Town -> scum.

However, reading through, you have very little interest in Concerned in your posts. Your last post to me looks like "come on scumbuddy, hammer already."

Yes, I have little interest in people I consider Town. I prefer looking at people I consider scum.
But yes, I would like the hammer. I want to know if I'm right about Sandman. Everyone on the potential wagon said they would be happy to lynch him, so I don't see why they're not doing so. Any reluctance at this stage would look to me like scum hesitant to bus, especially after I prompted them. Think of it as a way of gently testing my read on Concerned - I see no reason for a Townie to hesitate after the wagon has been decided.

[almightybob]

Okay, I really would like an explanation of why you have a good town read on Concerned.

Like I said for fitz, I could probably go back and form a case for Town-Concerned if I really have to, but right now I don't really have to.
I think he's Town because his play reminds me of my own as Town. His reads, his suspicions and his thoughts seem to have agreed with mine for most of the game. Most importantly, his motivation feels like genuine scumhunting.

Your play with Llama strikes me as being suggestive of scum-distancing

I've been suspicious of that slot before Llama even replaced in.

and so the way you both say of Concerned that he seems kind of town despite everything is interesting

Despite what? I never said I find him Town

despite

anything. I find him Town, full stop.

(the idea being that it's kind of semi-distancing)

No, distancing is when one scum voices suspicion of their scumbuddy. If Concerned and I were scum together, me calling him Town would be the opposite of distancing.

I'm not so impressed by your test of scum hesitant to bus, either, given that you act as if Sandman's guilt is proven

Not proven, but I think him highly likely scum. I wouldn't be voting him if I didn't think so. I will be very surprised if I'm wrong.
Imagine the scenario that he does indeed flip scum. Would you not think Concerned and/or dramonic's hesitation to vote would be a little suspicious? To me, that would be far more indicative of scum distancing. So I put it in play, so that, if I was right about Sandman, it would give me food for thought regarding Concerned.

lynch a townie today and it's four vs three vs one, which kind of sucks.

Oh really. And how exactly do you know there would be two NKs against Town?

[almightybob]

dramonic, you said in post 538 that fitz and Sandman were your two main suspects. Is that still accurate? Because we have a potential lynch on Sandman here.

[almightybob]

@Mod: Please note I will be V/LA from 2nd - 7th April, going skiiing

. I may be able to get online maybe once or twice during this time, but it's unlikely.


@dramonic and Concerned: I don't see much value in holding off. Unless Suave gets his thumb out his ass (and does anyone

seriously

see that happening?), Sandman is the only person that 5 people are willing to vote for. Therefore he is the only person we can lynch today.

I see little value in delaying when the lynch has already been decided. Plus, I would rather have the game tied up and have Night elapsing during my V/LA, so that I miss as little as possible.

[almightybob]

Just don't die, please.

Awwww.... can't I have

any

fun??

[almightybob]

Yay
Well played scumbuddies, a flawless win!
And no, I have no problems sharing the QT. I know as Town it's interesting reading what the scum were up to.

How exactly did you have me pegged as the SK?

From my PoV, I realised you were the SK when Suave claimed. We had tried to kill you on N1, but it failed. We assumed that you were either protected by the JK, or that Concerned's kill attempt was blocked. When Suave revealed that neither of these had happened, I realised that you must be NK-immune, and that therefore you could only be the SK. You should have seen my face when I realised! It can best be summed up as :O

If Suave had kept Neto alive would the game still have been over?

If Neto hadn't died (e.g. if he'd chosen not to use his recruit) then it would still have been 3 scum vs 3 non-scum (fitz, Neto, dramonic). There's no way for the non-scum to win in that situation.

As you can see from the QT, we were working on the assumption that fitz was not compulsive. So if both fitz and Neto had done nothing at Night, it would have been 3 scum vs 4 non-scum the next Day.


Neto definitely should not have used his recruit. Aiming for 2 Town out of 6 players, with a mis-recruit resulting in the death of confirmed Town and possibly losing the game - not a gamble worth the risk IMO.

Anyway, cheers all, I enjoyed this one.
And of course, thanks to Nacho for modding

[almightybob]