Mini 922 - Mafia in Mo Town [Game Over]

[hitogoroshi]

I've played with Nik, Kyle, RECK, and Neto; the rest of you are new faces. I've at least heard of a few others so let's take one of the complete strangers and

vote:almightybob

.

[hitogoroshi]

@Everyone - If you HAD to policy lynch one player in this game, who would it be and why?

It'd be cool if the answers weren't random.

kyle99. Like Reck, I've lynched scum-kyle and town-kyle and I can't recall any significant difference in their play. Reck is kind of the same way himself but I think Reck also serves as a catalyst and sends the game in interesting directions which kyle doesn't really do. DRK actually pointed it out (incredibly prematurely in this case) that kyle tends to be more of a floater.

[hitogoroshi]

Yeah, I actually replaced in to the second incarnation of that game AND another game he alted in to and messed up.

I'd like to point out that saying 'I HEREBY END THE RVS' or anything of the ilk is pretty anti-town in itself. I can understand why neto isn't a fan but it's something you let happen organically and not try to call yourself. I'm not talk about Neto here but rather about things like:

Can we end the RVS soon?

The RVS isn't a 'thing' you end. It's just an understanding between players that you can do stupid things in the early game until something actually happens.

@hito, I'm flattered you think I'm a catalyst. Quick, point to a meta example of my catalyst....ism.

Open 191 is on my mind. Admittedly you earned your 'honorary scum' title with your hammer, but before that you helped drive lynches, keep things clear, etc.

Regarding kyle, I'm not actually saying I want to policy lynch him now - just that if I'm in a situation where I don't have any scum suspects to lynch (unlikely, but maybe my main target replaces out without claiming right before deadline or something) I'd probably want to lynch kyle. Having a floater is annoying but not policy-lynch worthy most of the time unless we go a whole day without any good scumtells at all (and in that case, we'd learn plenty from the lack of scumtells in any case so the policy lynch wouldn't be an information sinkhole.)

[hitogoroshi]

Hmm. I think Neto is looking scummier and scummier. I mean, there has only been one main claim against him (and that's the whole "no claim/bad claim" thing) - but he keeps trying to defend himself, and that's what I did in my first two games as scum.

Unvote

Vote: Netopalis

Yeah! And he's posting WORDS, which are the things I posted when I was scum! Whelp, looks like we got this one in the bag.

These last three pages are a waste of time.

I'm gonna have to wait a bit before I can get any thought on Sakako. He seems pretty solidly newbtown but newbtown is also a very easy role for scum to act. I don't like the wagon at the moment because if you're interpreting his actions as scummy mistakes Sakako will probably scumslip twenty more times before the end of D1.

The first read that pops in to my head is Almaster-town.

Also, I'd like to point out that while there are situations where I'd be happy with a page eight lynch, when you pare out the back and forths over the same point and the 'DON'T LYNCH ME BRO! ECKS DEE' we're really only on like page three.

[hitogoroshi]

@hito: You're a douche, you know that?

To be clear: was that comment for a.) me calling out your bad logic or b.) me insinuating that if you're scum you're not doing a very good job?

[hitogoroshi]

I was insulting you, I was pointing out the very flawed nature of your argument by analogy. You have to understand that people in this game are not aggressive to others because they don't like them; they're aggressive because they think the others could be scum. There is a world of difference between attacking someone and attacking their reasoning, and while I agree personal insults (e.g 'you're a douche') should be kept out of the game barring extremely specific pressuring situations, nothing would ever get done if we censored ourselves from tearing down bad reasoning.

[hitogoroshi]

Well sure, go right ahead, but don't make it obvious that you're insulting me. That really detracts from the point of your point.

Despite hito being a mostly neutral read for me right now, his post regarding Sakako's 102 is both funny AND reaffirms everything I thought about Sakako.

Now, I could have said: That post is a logical fallacy. It assumes that because Sakako, as scum, did X in a certain situation, everyone doing X in that situation must be scum. But it's non-reversible for two important reasons. Firstly, two games with Sakoko says nothing about the average player - there's no reason to extrapolate and say that ALL scum ALWAYS do X in that situation. Secondly, even if it was always true, 'scum always do x in that situation' is a lot different than 'scum always, and only scum, do x in that situation.' In this case, self defense is something that is generally a good idea regardless of role - the argument would perhaps have more merit if Sakoko said 'and I never defend myself as town' but barring that it has no logical ground to stand on.

Now, which one do you think is easier to read? Which one will have more impact?

[hitogoroshi]

So I missed a day because I was doing various things and I was all worried about missing four pages. But uh, wow. There is a lot of noise in here and I didn't really miss much~

I'm speaking mostly of the Neto/Monkey tiff. They are most of the reason why this page count is so big and the actual crunch is so small. Generally when you get those whirligig sprials of 'rah rah misrep' I'm inclined to hand out town points to the both of them because generally townies care a lot more about their cases and assume anyone who doesn't understand theM MUST BE SCUM, whereas scum more often than not are willing to switch their case to whatever the other person thinks it is if it'll get their support. However, I think it's more of a null tell for Neto - he seems to be more involved with the formal case aspect of the game than most and thus would care more about those regardless of role.

I also can't help noticing they went from voting for each other to voting for the same person (Sakako). It could have been a scum tactic to spar a bit, then claim 'olol guess we are just too incompatible agree to disagree, hey partner how bout we lynch ourselves a sakako.' To be honest I don't read bussing in Neto v Monkey but that doesn't mean it's there.

Oh my god 'misrep' is being thrown around left and right here. Hey everyone - scum are not out to deliberately twist your words most of the time! 95% of the time, when someone posts something that assumes you hold a view you don't, it's because they simply don't understand your viewpoint! Most people hand out town points to anyone simply for understanding their viewpoint (I know I do if I'm not watching for it), so as scum there's generally not a whole lot of incentive to deliberately misrep someone.

Ugh and ms is lagging when I try to keep reading. I'm gonna go to calculus lecture, I'll post more whenever this damn site decides to play nice again.

[hitogoroshi]

Hey guys, sorry for the little posting. I am having severe issues focusing on anything right now, and when I can't even get myself to sit down and do schoolwork (e.g, real commitments) it's hard for me to honor little, informal internet commitments.

I'll finish catch up posting sometime soon, though you guys don't exactly make it easy (you guys post a lot, and it's usually not solid content but fluffy garbage that you don't so much read as wade through).

But I can at least give my three reads that matter the most - that is, the primary lynch candidates for today.

I'm getting a strong newb-town read from Sakako. I remember someone (DRK?) saying that he is not at all obv-town but I'd disagree. While it's true that his style is something worryingly easy for scum to replicate, whenever I've lynched a player like Sakako it's invariably been a town flip.

Monkey is neutral. He's been confrontational and mildly self-focused, two thinks I generally use to call town. But at the same time he's also exploded this thread on mildly trivial points which is what I suspect scum would like to do to try to drown out most of the town (it's certainly working on me).

Kyle is my favorite lynch candidate for today. He's playing disturbingly similar to the game I played with him when he was scum. Admittedly this is fairly similar to his town play - but at least as town I saw him try to lead a bit more whereas here he's back to being entirely reactive.

unvote, vote: kyle99

[hitogoroshi]

@hito: what about waiting to see if a vig can take care of kyle?

First off, this is a 12 player - having a killing role isn't the biggest help for town because it's still another kill and one mis-vig can put us in a bad spot. So it's possible we have a vig, but unlikely, in my opinion. (Granted I don't know what percentage of mini games do have vigs, but personally, I think it's generally not the best idea.)

More importantly, it's just lazy. As far as I can tell, the main reason people are proposing vigging kyle over lynching him is that he's doing so little to interact with the other players that his flip would be less informative. This is pretty asinine logic - it boils down to 'you're acting so anti-town that we're not going to lynch you'.

Kyle is still keeping his head down and only posting when someone addresses him. I think anyone on the competing wagons quite honestly needs to explain why they're not voting him, especially with posts like this:

I don't post unless I have something to say. Different than active lurking. I already stated who I think is scum, so unless someone asked me something, why should I post?

Yeah. He said that.

and lol and the Sakako vote. I would be extremely suspicious of anyone who adds to my wagon from here on out.

This kind of attitude is pretty annoying, quite frankly. I don't have any particularly large reason to think you're scum but if I did I sure wouldn't like the fact that you've basicially set yourself up to OMGUS the next person on your wagon.

Regarding Nikanor - I think it's a null tell at this point. DRK makes a good point that a scum would probably want to join a real wagon, but I also know that many scum take refuge in the absurd, counting on the weird things they're doing looking town. It'll depend a lot on what he does next.

Speaking of which, Nik: GM is my strongest town read, and there are others with me on that, I think. I highly doubt your vote is gonna do much to sway the town to get a wagon going, so I'd appreciate it if a.) you joined one of the more viable wagons (may I suggest kyle? :3) or b.) you push a bit more and try to explain more thoroughly why we should lynch GM/Neto today.

[hitogoroshi]

Sorry for the absence everyone. My other mafia games are...trust me, if you saw then, you'd understand.

Honestly I'm a little weirded out that people pushing lurkers always seem to miss me. I mean, not to look a gift horse in the mouth, but it's a bit worrisome that I could get away with that.

I'm gonna go ahead right now and throw down some serious suspicion to whoever started telling us that deadline is approaching and we need to start instantly compromising. We have like, five days until deadline, and this game is sickeningly active. I'll try to dig up quotes and all that good stuff tomorrow; for now, let it suffice to say that it's premature and unwarranted, particularly because it forced out a claim so early.

Still liking my kyle vote. His Lowell vote especially seems kind of out of left field. Wasn't kyle saying we need to be paranoid to secure a lynch before deadline? Of course I've been scattered as of late so I don't know. I apologize if this is wrong about you, kyle.

You'll be happy to know that tomorrow is a cleaning, homework, and mafia day, and I should be able to actually get some good content going.

[hitogoroshi]

Lying isn't as scummy as you think it is. In fact, this makes me think Monkey is town (scum would have absolutely no reason to go back on a PR claim unless he was caught by a rolecop or something).

Actually, it is. In this case, he gets to create the WIFOM you appear to be buying right now, and he gets to do it for free. With a PR fakeclaim you have to try to fabricate a story why there is no evidence of your actions. But switching from a PR fakeclaim to a vanilla claim? Well, gee, ain't no way to prove that, is there? So he gets this WIFOM for free.

Lynch all liars, man. We're taking down monkey today.

That being said. I don't want to do it quite yet. My reason is, granted, a pretty selfish one - I haven't had much time to get down good solid content in this game and I really don't want the day to end without me having anything down because I know if I don't add anything that's one less townie pushing the game and the less townies pushing the game the easier it is for scum to do so.

Now it turns out I really was wrong about kyle. He never tried to rush a deadline lynch. Still don't like his 'I only speak when spoken to' but what are you gonna do.

Hey, kyle, any chance you have meta of you saying that before?

Thanks to Neto for being a beacon of sense for all this. I think Reck is in a similar position when you disentangle his mountain of expletives.

I think there's a pretty good chance we can catch at least one scum among people who posted in the time frame of Monkey's JOAT claim without commenting on it. Gvie me a bit to find out who those are.

[hitogoroshi]

Reck and Neto - think about this one. I'm contending that we can use Monkey's actions to help find scum (in the sense that we can look at people's reactions to his JOAT claim). Now we don't yet know what his flip is. I'm betting scum, but I'm not sure. But the scum ALREADY know what Monkey is flipping (barring any third-party wankery of course, but they know whether or not monkey is flipping 'scum' or 'not scum'.) Now, after he flips, everyone will know what his flip was. I think you can appreciate why we really want to know what people think about Monkey before and after his flip.

This isn't about 'looking townie' vs. 'lynching one scum'. This is 'lynching one guy who is probably scum right now' or 'trying to find all of the scum as soon as possible.' Unless you're trying to contend that Monkey is the only scum and when we lynch him we win, I don't see why it's so controversial that I want to lynch him, but not yet.

[hitogoroshi]

But your overall vibe of your post wasn't "Hey guys, let's take a moment and talk", it was "I don't look townie enough yet".

It's not about 'looking townie', it's about 'being townie.' I know some players think that, if they have a town role PM, that automatically means that whatever they do is a townie action. I am not one of those people. Regardless of whether Monkey is a misylnch or a scumlynch, I've had next to nothing to do with it. I've been dead weight for the town either way. The fact that I like who we're stringing up doesn't mean I can say 'HEY, GUESS IT'S COOL THAT I DID JACK SHIT TODAY BECAUSE THINGS HAPPENED HOW I WANT THEM TO'.

I'm a little peeved that I finally sat down and tried to figure out what I could do to be useful to the town today (wagon analysis and questioning to it's prime suspects) and then kyle decided to just end it after I literally just said that I wanted to get something useful in.

[hitogoroshi]

FoS: hito

Seriously, his end of D1 play was atrocious. He's worried about 'being dead weight for the town' and trying to hold up the MonkeyMan lynch. Which, I don't really

mind

considering the circumstances... however... I just can't get this nagging feeling out of my head that hito was scum trying to get town points by staying off the wagon.

Despite what Nik may tell you, you do not get town points staying OFF the wagon of a fakeclaimer. Look at this case. There are literally two living players who were not on the Monkey wagon. It's not like this lynch was something only scum would support.

Hito, did you

ever

go back and do your "wagon analysis and questioning of its prime suspects"? Also, I'll probably be going back and setting my sights on a certain 3-4 people. But I oh so anxiously await hito's reply.

Well I couldn't exactly do my questioning thanks to

Kyle, the Magic, Hammer Loving Wonder Penguin!

shooting up the chance to use the before/after lynch decision point. (Incidentally, this is what really peeves me about people calling my wanting to stall scummy - clearly the worry that a hammer would happen before I could do wagon analysis and talk to people about their view was a valid concern because IT HAPPENED, and really I should have yelled it in big, red letters.) But yes, I did look at his wagon, and I suppose I can still ask people about what they thought, though now that the town know as much as the scum about Monkey's alignment it's not gonna be nearly as useful.

Specifically, I'm interested in people who continued to vote for Monkey while he was a claimed JOAT. Nik has the efficacy of Lynch all Liars and Lynch all Lurkers backwards - that is, the former is enough to lynch off of itself while the latter is at least somewhat circumstantial (though in many circumstances I'm happy with a lurker lynch) - but that's a subject for a later post lest this become too walltastic. Preview to a point I'm sure Nik will make me expand out: when scum can get a reward (WIFOM defense) without a risk (since they 'switch back to VT', which can't be validated in anyway) townies have no good reason to fakeclaim and giving an allowance for them to do so is one that will be used by scum far, far more than town. It's basicially the inverse of Hanlon's Razor.

So we start with Monkey 471, where he claims JOAT. At the time, AlmasterGM, almightybob, Espeonage, Sakako, xRECKONERx, and Netopalis are voting for him.

Reck and Neto unvote.

Lowell votes him.

Espeon holds his vote.

Sakako unvotes.

Neto: You just don't lynch a claimed PR.

Almaster holds his vote.

Reck revotes.

Neto revotes.

Then some words happen but nothing major wagon-wise until he recants his claim.

Gonna go play League of Legends with some friends so I'll pick this up later. My take on the wagon analysis is that it's town points for Sakako, scum points for Neto, Espeon, and Lowell, and null points for Almaster and Reck. I'll explain how I got to those conclusions from this data when I get back (it'll be tonight sometime.) I know that as it stands this is a touch IioA - trust me, the analysis is coming. :p

Bob - were you ever in this thread between Monkey's JOAT claim and his recanting of it? I didn't see you but I was skimming.

Happy Scumday! ~KittyMo

[hitogoroshi]

So hitero just shows up to call out those voting for monkey, after he fakeclaimed, then admitted his claim was fake. Sorry, not taking the blame for monkey being an idiot. Those strategically avoiding the whole situation (ahem, hitero) look much worse, IMO.

Firstly, it's hito. No e, no r. >.>

And this is completely wrong. You're saying 'You're calling out people who voted Monkey after he fakeclaimed' but that's just flat out wrong. You'll notice my analysis stops not as his lynch, but at him taking back his claim. You'll also notice that I am getting flak for SUPPORTING lynch all liars - so I'm certainly not calling people out for lynching Monkey-the-lying-VT.

I also don't like that you only voted for monkey after he took back his claim. You voted for monkey -

twice

- in the period of time between his JOAT claim and his recanting of the claim. This is what I am giving you scum points for.

Despite what Nik may tell you, you do not get town points staying OFF the wagon of a fakeclaimer. Look at this case. There are literally two living players who were not on the Monkey wagon. It's not like this lynch was something only scum would support.

I wasn't giving you town points. I was giving you scum points. Try to pay attention. You were technically on the Monkey wagon anyway.

No, you're giving me an honorary position on the Monkey wagon, remember? I'm saying 'it's not a scummy thing to be on Monkey's wagon, even though Nikanor's posts are stating something to that effect."

>WIFOM ALERT!<
The current site meta would mean that Monkey would be absolutely eaten alive for going back on a PR claim. So much so that the fact is that if he was scum, he would not have bothered going back on the claim and would instead have waited until the next day. Make sense?
>END WIFOM<

Two big reasons why that is totally wrong. Firstly, I think we can agree that there was no incentive for Monkey to do that. So, buried in your reasoning is the idea that anyone who does something they have absolutely no incentive to do, regardless of alignment, must be town. It boils down to the idea that 'all idiots are town', which is obviously false.

Secondly, while you did warn of a WIFOM alert, that doesn't make it any less true. The instant you incentive anti-town behavior, it becomes effective, at least at the margins. This can be expanded to the idea that

the very fact that you're willing to call someone town for an incentive-less lie is proof positive that there is incentive for scum to lie

.

The very point of Lynch all Liars is to make sure that as few townies tell pointless lies as possible. Monkey isn't a sign that we need to adjust the meta, he's just a sign that we need to drill it into every person's head NOT TO POINTLESSLY LIE.

Preview-edit: Yeah Reck is on my wavelength. Awesome.

Though, Reck, it's worth noting that if you count me as a member of the Monkey wagon (I would have voted him, you can be damn sure) there are really only two people alive who WEREN'T on the Monkey wagon. So your point is true but kinda moot.

[hitogoroshi]

EBWOP:

I also don't like that you only voted for monkey after he took back his claim. You voted for monkey - twice - in the period of time between his JOAT claim and his recanting of the claim. This is what I am giving you scum points for.

This should say, "don't like

that you're saying

that you only voted..."

[hitogoroshi]

Yeah I kind of deserve that vote for not following through that night. I decided to try the whole 'studying' thing for my chem test, with surprisingly good results. I still don't think wanting to delay a bit and get in content at that decision point is all that scummy, but if you think it is, I don't have anything to say that I haven't already.

Anyway, my reasoning for the reads I gave on the wagon. I won't be linking to the posts in question because MS is lagging it up right now, but if you can't find a specific post let me know and I'll hit you up.

Sakako's actions on the Monkey wagon do a lot to point to him as town. While DRK was right that the math really wasn't applicable, I have a really hard time swallowing that scum had any incentive to try something like that. If Sakako-scum was going to argue against the monkey lynch for town cred I wouldn't see him throwing out number-based analysis, because that makes Sakako LESS RESPONSIBLE for the decision and thus gives him less town cred.

As for the others, I'm going off of the (hopefully) uncontroversial position that scum would like to get the JOAT lynched. Looking back, I think it's really more null for Espeon, for the same reason as Almaster - they both called it an fake claim from their first post after Monkey's JOAT claim and while that is something scum would say they could easily just as well be townies. As for Reck, while he gave it thought at first, he posted something akin to a case that I could see Reck town thinking without too much trouble.

The ones who come off as scummiest from this are Neto and Lowell. Neto started by holding to the standard line of thought that you don't lynch a PR D1 without good reason. But then, when it was revealed that the town was still happy with a Monkey lynch, suddenly Neto was as well. It was an awfully fast hop from hard-line 'it's silly to lynch a claimed PR d1' to 'you're obviously lying scum, Monkey.' This isn't to insult Reck, but I don't see his points being strong enough to incite that sort of hop.

Lowell I think gives me the worst vibes, though. He hops on, and off, and then on again while monkey is still a claimed JOAT .There's an FOS in there as well. He votes him right after his claim, unvotes (so clearly he's not 100% it's a fake claim), then FOS's and, presumably after no one rebuffed him for suspecting Monkey, votes AGAIN, all of which happens BEFORE Monkey points out he's a VT.

There's room for a townie to doubt a claim - you'd look like Almaster (who is still strongly on my town-list). While I don't think Almaster's actions on the Monkey wagon POINT to him as town (in the way Sakako's do), that's only because it's possible for a scum to replicate them. They are certainty what I'd expect from a townie who disbelieved Monkey's claim, and those actions are very remarkably different from what Lowell did.

Vote :Lowell

[hitogoroshi]

I agree with Sakako that what's bad about kyle's hammer isn't that it was there at all but that it was so rapid, especially after I called for a delay. That being said after what just played out with Lowell and Neto I'm more than happy with my vote at the moment.

Really not a fan of

not going to seriously bother defending myself against until after the flip

because that sounds an awful lot like either bussing scum slipping that they know Lowell will flip scum (in which case this is a simple slip) or non-bussing scum knowing Lowell will flip town (in which case this is Neto knowing this point will be moot and impatiently not wanting to pretend to defend himself against it). Either way, it sounds like Neto already knows Lowell's alignment, which a townie obviously wouldn't. That being said, I'd still vastly prefer a Lowell lynch over a Neto lynch and this isn't enough to make me feel like switching.

Kyle, I'm interested in what you think about Lowell.

[hitogoroshi]

Not liking Nikanor here. He's acting as if it's the foregone conclusion that he'll be lynched, when that's really not the case. I've noticed that scum often tend to go into "lost cause" mode much earlier than town, and I feel that may be his motivation.

While I don't see much 'lost cause mode' coming from Nikanor, I have noticed this pattern as well (that scum go 'woe is me' well before townies.)

And can I ask @ everyone (apart from Nikanor the psychic) why they've dropped all suspicion of Sakako in D2? Did I miss him doing something incredibly pro-Town or being cleared or something?

I've given my reasons why I read Sakako town, but to recap - I'm catching a lot of paranoia at lynching the wrong person (of the flavor I'd expect from a townie) and I think that his use of what basically amounts of Pascal's wager, while it wasn't really applicable in this situation, strikes me as townie (scum want mechanisms to guide them TOWARD a lynch so they can pass responsibly onto something other than themselves; not as a way to avoid mislynching).

I agree with AGM that it's awfully convenient that a case started rolling on Lowell, he posted once basicially ignoring every point made at him and then fell off the face of the earth.

[hitogoroshi]

Also, he (hito) opened the next day by questioning those who didn't believe the JOAT claim.

Even though the JOAT claim was a fakeclaim

. He doesn't bother to explain why knowing (or being right about) the bogusness of monkey's claim translate to scumminess or non-scumminess.

I did explain why - that while it's plausible a townie read it as a fakeclaim from the get-go, it doesn't really make sense that a townie would back off initially, and then try to push a Monkey case after realizing how little support he had, because they would want to lynch the possible JOAT. Yes, it was a fakeclaim: but if you read it as such from the start, why'd you unvote?

(That being said, after reading your post in non-ISO I was reminded it was your response to Neto's 'you just don't lynch a claimed PR without giving them a few nights, which makes me like you a little more and Neto a little less.)

In fact hito's avoiding the situation entirely looks more scummy, and I'm not impressed by how he decided to jump on the wagon after the fact. It's opportunistic as hell to bring up the busted fake-claim and use it to smack people in a way that makes no sense..

I was 'avoiding' the Monkey wagon because I was having time issues. 'After the fact' was the first time I had a chance to really digest it, and kyle's hammer cut that short. What motivation would I have as scum to avoid the Monkey wagon that I wouldn't have as town?

And the entire point of my analysis is bringing up the busted fake-claim BEFORE it was busted. I don't see what's so opportunistic about effectively using a change in information to try to catch scum.

While I don't see much 'lost cause mode' coming from Nikanor, I have noticed this pattern as well (that scum go 'woe is me' well before townies.)

What do you think of Neto's 689?

It's a ittle dig that makes the most sense from town but it's also an easy thing for scum to replicate and it did seem to be a bit fast. I'd say it's a slight scum tell but since Neto doesn't seem like the type to fake his frustration as scum I think I'm happiest calling it null in terms of alignment.

[hitogoroshi]

because there's nothing he could post D1 that he couldn't post D2

I'm sure I've already been over this - there was a lot of potential for asking people about Monkey BEFORE this flip, trying to see who had too much information, etc.

And again, I don't understand why people are saying that, as scum, I'd want to delay the Monkey wagon. AGM, (and again, I'm pretty sure I've been over this), my desire to delay was not to process whether or not I wanted to lynch Monkey - it was to use the decision point of 'before Monkey's lynch' and because I get antsy when I've had no bearing on the major wagon of the day (in addition to trying to pin down other wagons, I thought it'd be interesting to try to gauge people's interests in other wagons - I think you guys can kind of figure out what you'd learn from this.)

[hitogoroshi]

Well this is just wonderful.

I really do not like Espeon's 749 for what I hope are obvious reasons.

I still prefer a Lowell lynch to anything else but if he's not going to show up I don't really want to ram a lynch through on that slot without giving him a chance to claim.

While Neto's certainly on the scummier side of things (especially his flip re: monkey, but that's all old ground) I don't want to take the easy lynch (even though I'm not sure we can organize this lurkertastic town on anyone else) at this juncture because that seems awfully convenient for the scum.

Let's give Lowell a day to pick up his prod. If he doesn't show up by then I'll look into starting up a different wagon.

[hitogoroshi]

Yeah, the math checks out. We're probably in MYLO and there are no clearly confirmed townies so it's worth no-lynching today.

Vote: No Lynch

I find it interesting that Nik supports no-lynching because didn't vote for it, presumably for this 'unless role info wink wink nudge nudge'. That being said, I don't really want to lynch someone today unless I'm feeling 100% they're scum because if we hit a townie today and lose I'll feel awfully stupid.

Almaster, do you support the no-lynch, or are you serious in that you're calling Nikanor 100% scum with his rolefishing comment? You haven't voted either way so it's hard to tell which side you're on.

[hitogoroshi]

Wait, are people really no lynching? Why are we (a) assuming 3 scum

3 scum is the case in the majority of these set-ups. Even if it wasn't, the precautionary principle seems to be prudent here.

and (b) assuming town doesnt have something like a doc to fight back? Also, do we think scum are goint to knock out one of our leading suspects overnight? Won't scum just get a free offing of someone generally agreed to be town? You really think scum are kicking themselves right now that we've discovered this awesome strategy?

I alluded to this in my last post - it'd be different if we had a single player virtually everyone had a town read on, but from what I see we have no 'confirmed townie'-esque players and the scum really won't have a choice but to shoot someone that at least a couple of people find suspicious. This will also give us another confirmed townie's worth of reads.

And it's not about the scum kicking themselves - it's just that a no lynch is

less bad

than the alternative.

I don't know about the rest of you, but I don't have an 100% scum read on anyone. Not Nik, and (despite your shenanigans at the end of D2) not even you, Lowell. If someone else has a read that they're willing to pin everything on (since we're probably in MYLO) vote and give me a case why, but as it stands I think no lynch is the best move here.

[hitogoroshi]

Which would be a relevant fact if there were six alive.

[hitogoroshi]

Apologies for my slow start here, it's spring break.

Two people that catch my eye looking at the final votecounts are hito and zach/kyle. On day 2 they both avoided the lead wagon (with hito voting for me and zach even avoiding THAT wagon with a meaningless vote on nika), while neither did much to really gain steam for their respective choices. It looks like both were deliberately avoiding the wagon.

You may notice that my last post of D2 was me looking in to a different wagon because of your absence. I wasn't interested in a Neto wagon because there was too little resistance and it struck me as too easy for it to be a scum lynch. Actually, Espeon was my top pick for scum besides you, and I was going to try to get an Espeon wagon going before you ended the day.

Lowell is still the most likely scum, I think. I'm not really feeling the Nik suspicion because iirc it's mostly off of a few throwaway comments he pooted out that some people thought smelled like rolefishing. Zach and Reck are both good lynches as well.

[hitogoroshi]

I'm just a vanilla. This town is looking a touch underpowered, I agree. Maybe (hopefully is perhaps more appropriate here) there are no scum PR's?

I've had a town read all game on AGM so this mason claim is easy enough to swallow. While having one scumbag not in the masonry (unless there are only two this game? I think I could almost buy that with this underpowered town) makes it a potential gambit when you're not outing your whole team, I just don't see AGM being scum.

Let's take Zach off the list here, then. I still think Bob is a townie, so that leaves Lowell, Nik, and Reck. Lowell is still my top pick for scum, and with Nik's recent actions where he posted a lot without saying anything and 'joking' about lynching the masons that could easily have been testing the water for their lynch, I can swallow Nik-scum easier than before. As for Reck, you're right that I haven't ever really given suspicions of you - you're more of a null read to me, but Process of Elimination is throwing you into the limelight because there are multiple people I'm pretty sure are town.

I'd like a Lowell lynch and I'd go along with a Nikanor lynch. If neither of those pan out I'd be up for a Reck lynch.

[hitogoroshi]

My points on Lowell aren't just about him being on the tail end of wagons. It's that he's doing stuff like his D2 surprise, about to be replaced hammer and then he has next to no game presence to back it up. Hammering obviously isn't scummy, but those circumstances certainly are and it's interesting that Lowell's 'big defense' never came when no one asked for it. The reason I think Lowell is scum is that he has a lot of game presence when it comes to getting townies murdered and next to no presence when it comes to anything else.

Zach, the meta you're proposing for Lowell doesn't really seem...well, workable. You're saying that if Lowell makes poor decisions and lots of people want him dead, he's probably a townie. But that's an incredibly easy style to consciously replicate, and unless you can tell me some way you can tell when Lowell is faking it that's not really a valid meta defense.

[hitogoroshi]

Wow do I feel stupid. Even after the quickhammer shenanigans I never, ever thought Lowell was the traitor. Jeepers we dodged a bullet with the quicklynch on Nik because I would have pushed for a Lowell lynch with all of my might.