Mini 922 - Mafia in Mo Town [Game Over]

[DeathRowKitty]

Vote

KittyMo

Nikanor

Obv-svum. Anyone who doesn't join the wagon is his buddy.

[DeathRowKitty]

vote nik.

:goodposting:

DeathRowKitty - seriously,

she's

he's obviously the SK

Oh, the irony!

Also, I'm not liking this. Nikanor has 4 scumbuddies. We're already in mylo. Fortunately, all the scum have already outed themselves and the game should be easy from here on out.

[DeathRowKitty]

Ass. Clearly, you should be voting for the SK.

He already is.

@Everyone - If you HAD to policy lynch one player in this game, who would it be and why?

There's no one in this game I would policy lynch on sight

except Reckoner

. Does the mod count?

Wow, random voting much? I think I'll pass for now.

New plan. Everyone vote sakako until he makes a vote on someone.

Vote: sakako

[DeathRowKitty]

@Espeonage
Why an FoS and not a vote? Do you feel your current (random) vote is better than a vote for Sakako? (Sakako is clearly town, but that's beside the point of this question.)

...Wait. I'm technically not Nik's buddy. Does that mean I have to self-vote?

You don't

have

to, but it would be a nice gesture if you did. (Pleeeeaaaaaaaaaaaase? I'll post a "<" and a "3" in the shape of a heart if you do.)

Vote: kyle99

As early as it is, he already looks like he's floating along.

[DeathRowKitty]

Is this a serious vote?

More serious than my random vote.

@almightybob
Random bandwagons: good

, bad,

or crazy awesome?

[DeathRowKitty]

AlmightyBob: Fair enough. That reasoning wasn't exactly clear in your original vote.

Unvote

Vote: Netopalis

. What about that reasoning wasn't clear in his original post?

[DeathRowKitty]

I like Reckoner's vote.

For the record, I was simply stating that I don't like it and won't participate in it, not that I was demanding its end. Quite honestly, I've found that when I do participate in the RVS, I screw it up somehow...So, I generally wait until I'm useful to contribute heavily, which is in the later part of D1 and the subsequent days.

I hate posts like this. We can't get to the later part of day 1 without getting out of the early part of day 1. Ignoring the early part of day 1 keeps us in the early part of day 1 longer. By waiting until you can be more effective, you're making yourself less effective.

Well, I don't really have any reads. That's probably cause I still suck at scumhunting, but my vote's staying on [Reckoner] until Neto provides some information anyway.

I don't get it.

@Neto
This post by you was probably the most content-heavy post of the game. You had no problem picking someone out as scummiest then. What's changed since then and now that you now find yourself incapable of forming opinions of people?

[DeathRowKitty]

I don't particularly like Bob's vote on DRK. He put on a second vote without a lot of reasoning behind it. It's a light tell, but it is one nonetheless.

It didn't look to me like he was serious, nor that the vote that he was talking about was serious. I figured it was just another excuse for a random vote, since most players like giving faux justification for their random votes. Honestly, though, I really hate the random votes thing. I think it's pointless and usually ends up lynching town.

You said you thought it was a random vote, yet you'd voted him for giving a bad reason with his vote. What exactly about his vote did you find scummy and why?

[DeathRowKitty]

Anyways,Vote: DeathRowKitty for being obvscum trying to get a quicklynch.

Looks like a reason to me. Plus, you originally said "without a lot of reasoning behind it", which you've now changed to "no reason." I can has explanation please?

Also, you don't mind if I keep harassing you, right?

[DeathRowKitty]

Vote: Sakako

Towards the end of my back-and-forth with Neto, I was doing exactly what I claimed to be doing - harassing him. Sure, he was the scummiest player, but not as scummy as I was trying to play him off as.

I liked Reckoner's pressure/vote on Neto. It seemed to have an early game pro-town mindset to it. Pressure someone and get something going.

I don't like Sakako's jump onto Neto. It has more of a "hmm, it looks like this case might stick" kind of mindset to it. He did add on something new to the case on Neto, but it looks more like an add-on for the sake of having something to put down than it does like a real part of a case. Basically, a way to avoid looking like he was just bandwagoning someone with a couple of votes.

My vote is better placed on Sakako than on Neto.

[DeathRowKitty]

Unofficial Votecount

[2] xRECKONERx - (Espeonage, MonkeyMan576)
[2] Netopalis - (Sakako, xRECKONERx)
[1] DeathRowKitty - (almightybob)
[1] kyle99 - (AlmasterGM)
[1] Espeonage - (Lowell)
[1] almightybob - (hitogoroshi)
[1] AlmasterGM - (kyle99)
[1] Lowell - (Nikanor)
[0] Sakako - (DeathRowKitty)
[0] hitogoroshi - ( )
[0] MonkeyMan576 - ( )
[0] Nikanor - ( )
[1] Not Voting - (Netopalis)

[DeathRowKitty]

EBWOP: Pretend there's a 1 in the box next to Sakako's name.

[DeathRowKitty]

Also, hi, DRK. Sorry I'm late.

Hi! And don't worry, we all know I post faster than you.

[DeathRowKitty]

@Reckoner
What changed between your vote and your previous post that made you decide to vote now?

@Sakako
What makes you think it was a trap? If a trap like that has caught you as scum, what makes it scummy to set a trap like that?

[DeathRowKitty]

@Monkey
Any comments on the more recent developments? What do you think of Sakako?

[DeathRowKitty]

The whole "I don't participate in the RVS" routine is a null tell. And one that's far too common, I might add.

Neto's defense wasn't bad because your attack wasn't good in the first place. There really wasn't anything to defend.

And you didn't say what you think of Sakako.

[DeathRowKitty]

Oh, nvm on that last part. I misinterpreted your post as referring to Neto instead of Sakako.

[DeathRowKitty]

Monkey and Sakako are a potential scumteam.

Discuss.

Possible. I'd say it's unlikely at this point. The possible deflection by Monkey was in fact noted though.

Random Player X and Random Player Y are a potential scumteam(as long as its not me). Discuss.

If we assume 3 scum, this is trivially true.

@DRK: Here's how I think it could work:

1. Find some pithy little case on someone
2. Repeatedly word the question about that case in a different manner in an attempt to cause them to contradict themselves
3. Use that contradiction as a major scum-tell
4. Lynch a townsperson.

That's why I think it's a trap.

You suddenly seem very sure of this. Why?

[DeathRowKitty]

Okay, I worded my post badly. At first, you said it "could have been" a trap. Then you changed that to "I think it's a trap." Now, you just said "I just think it could be."

What changed between your first post and your second or your second post and your third?

[DeathRowKitty]

If we assume 3 scum, this is trivially true.

Why would you assume someone is scum based on random selection?

I took it to mean "there exist players x and y who are scum together, where player x, player y =/= MonkeyMan.

@Sakako
My point is that you originally voted with the reasoning that Reckoner's play "could have been" a trap. This is a

very

weak reason. The fact that you now said that you

think

it's a trap is more assured, as if you're trying to justify your vote by sounding more sure of yourself.

[DeathRowKitty]

Hi Lowell.

If at all possible, can you point to a post or two from both Monkey and Espeon to explain your gut scum read?

[DeathRowKitty]

A couple of people in this game are pretty obv-town right now if you read closely enough. I don't see how Sakako is even remotely one of them.

Monkey also isn't one of them, but I'm nowhere near as sold on him as I am on Sakako.

Nikanor should stop lurking. I hear he's a pretty cool guy. Sort of. Possibly. Maybe? Oh, whatever, POST NIKANOR!

[DeathRowKitty]

@Neto
I think you misread my post. I was responding to people who have been calling Sakako newb-town.

[DeathRowKitty]

@kyle
What about Sakako do you find scummiest? What do you think of Monkey?

[DeathRowKitty]

Meh, kyle always lurks and he did give reasons when asked. It's scummy, but not as scummy as Sakako has been doing all game.

He also never voted Monkey, so I'm less inclined to believe this is just him joining the biggest wagon.

[DeathRowKitty]

Okay. I'm not meaning to be defeatist. I should probably play a few more newbie games before trying to play with the big guys, but here's what I'm thinking.

xReck - most probably town. Either that, or very good scum. He's been hunting pretty much from the get-go, and that's good. I like that play.

Neto - more likely town than not. Just a gut feeling for now.

Kyle - not sure what to think. I'd like for him to provide a link to the game which he's using as meta for Monkey.

Monkey - quite possibly scum. I don't really have any new reasons for this, but I really don't like the way he shifted the discussion from him as scum to random x as scum.

Almaster - not quite sure here either.
Lowell - likewise.

DRK - Quite possibly town, for same scumhunting reasons as xReck.

Esp - possibly town. Making some good attempts at hunting.

Bob, Nik - possibly scum, lurking somewhat.

Hito - unsure. Possibly town though, making some good cases against me.

If I've forgotten anyone, please let me know.

You seem to think that most of your attackers are town. Why do you think so?

He's seemingly too scummy to be scum. I know people think it's a null tell or logical fallacy

I know where you're coming from with this and it's been giving me some trouble too. It's starting to remind me a bit of GreenDude from that game where you were fisherman. I still think Sakako is scum though.

Someone mentioned Neto as likely scum recently and I can see some logic in it. Unfortunately, I'm so lazy right now that I don't feel like finding who said it.

Sakako's recent posts of trying to narrow it down to either Monkey or kyle are very scummy. False dichotomy much? To make it even better, they blatantly piggybacked off Reckoner's suspicions.

[DeathRowKitty]

Okay, my first thought after reading the past couple pages: we have to lynch one of Sakako, Monkey, and kyle today. The associative tells we gain by lynching one of them could very easily break the game open at this point (well, depending on how many lurkers are scum). There's been some very awkward vote hopping among those wagons, moreso than can be reasonably expected if there weren't at least one scum among that group and at least one scum jumping between wagons.

Kyle's play this game has been horrible, regardless of alignment. I'm currently thinking a lot of it can be pinned down to meta. (In my other game with him, someone referred to him (in reference to another game) as "lurk 'n hammer kyle" or something to that effect. That sounds very similar to his play here.)

Sakako seems to be happy with any vote that isn't on him. The bigger the wagon he's jumping onto, the better. This is self-preservation at its finest - he doesn't even seem concerned with whether or not the people he votes are scum. I still definitely feel he's our best lynch candidate.

---

Hi Nikanor!

[DeathRowKitty]

*sigh*

[DeathRowKitty]

Maybe if you participated you'd be "more into it"?

FOS: Nikanor

...and what exaclty makes this FoS worthy?

FoS Monkey

[DeathRowKitty]

I am completely unconvinced of this Kyle wagon right now. I have already explained why I think lynching him because he's "hard to read" is a bad play. Given the fact that there are plenty of other people acting extremely scummy (Monkey and Sak), I see no reason why Kyle cannot wait. Monkey isn't even trying to explain himself in response to anything I say, he's just letting it get buried in all the lotsofposting and hoping the wagon on Kyle will take over.

This.

Kyle would be more or less a policy lynch at this point. He wouldn't be a

bad

lynch information-wise, but we have two scummier players that would also be very good lynches information-wise.

[hint]Kyle is the kind of player that really makes you hope the town has a vig.[/hint]

[DeathRowKitty]

I really don't think we should be force-replacing Nikanor unless he refuses to participate, which is not the case. Let him decide if he can continue.

[DeathRowKitty]

Plus, the game is only 6 days old...

[DeathRowKitty]

ITT, Monkey tries to forcibly make a null tell look scummy.

[DeathRowKitty]

Bad logic is

scummy

an indicator that someone uses bad logic.

Fixed.

---

Premature (and almost completely unreadable) vote analysis time!

The names next to each person indicate the people they voted for,

orange indicates an FoS

, {votes in brackets are RVS votes}, the numbers show what number vote it was on the player (numbers next to italicized names indicate how many votes were on the FoSed player). A vertical line indicates an unvote without a new vote being made (the number in parentheses next to a vertical line indicates the number of votes on the player before the unvote):

AlmasterGM

- {kyle (1)} Monkey (4), Nikanor (2), Monkey (2)

almightybob

- {DRK (2)*} Monkey (2)

DeathRowKitty

- {Nikanor (1), Sakako (1)+} kyle (2), Neto (1), Sakako (1),

Monkey

(2)

Espeonage

- {xRx (1)

Sakako

(1)+} Monkey (1), kyle (2), Monkey (3)

hitogoroshi

- {almightybob (1)} kyle (2)

kyle99

- {Lowell (1), AGM (1)} Sakako (5)

Lowell

- {Nikanor (2)} Espeon (2),

Monkey

(2), Monkey (3), Nikanor (1),

xRx

(0),

Neto

(0)

MonkeyMan576

- {xRx (2)+} Neto (1), Sakako (4), kyle (3),

Nikanor

(2)

Netopalis

- {} almightybob (2) | (2), Monkey (2), Sakako (3)

Nikanor

- {Lowell (1)} AGM (1)

Sakako

- {Espeon (1)}

Espeon

(1), Neto (3) | (2), xRx (1) | (1), Nikanor (3), Monkey (4)

xRECKONERx

- {DRK (1)} Neto (2), Sakako (2), kyle (1) | (1), Nikanor (1)

*Occurred during the RVS, but not a random vote
+Random?

Things to note:

• Kyle was willing to make two random votes, but has only made one vote since, a vote that put Sakako at L-2.
• Reckoner's jumped around a bit, but has been willing to hold unpopular opinions. Prob-town.
• Three of Sakako's four real votes have put the 3rd or 4th vote on a player and have usually come not long after other votes appear on those players. His other real vote looks a lot like OMGUS. Scummy.
• Nikanor is prob-town. That doesn't actually follow from the voting analysis, but I figured I'd say that since Nikanor has a couple of votes on him.
• AGM (I think it was AGM) pointed this out at some point, but a Neto-Monkey scum team wouldn't be implausible. They had their early battle over very little (distancing), gave up and both hopped on the Sakako wagon. Neto's unvote came when Monkey had 4 votes because apparently questioning Monkey wasn't going anywhere. Plus, they've been independently scummy.

If anyone else has anything to add, go ahead. I don't feel like looking at this any more.

[DeathRowKitty]

I do not.

[DeathRowKitty]

Why do you think I'm probtown, DRK?

You're pretty much starting the game 17 pages in and we've already established some sort of triichotomy among Monkey, Sakako, and kyle, yet you blatantly ignore all 3 and attack two other people instead. I don't see the scum motivation.

It kind of goes along with what Lowell said earlier, about how he would just lurk through all this if he were scum. It would just be too easy for you to blend in as scum by joining in on one or two of the already-established wagons. Instead, you picked someone that no one has put a vote on all game and vote him instead.

[DeathRowKitty]

Unless both Monkey and Sakako are scum, he could easily just join the other one and give it a huge momentum boost. Your explanation is possible, but I doubt that's the case.

[DeathRowKitty]

I did say he was "prob-town", not obv-town.

You do have to make assumptions in mafia. There's no way to know someone's intentions for sure. You make a reasonable assumption based on what the person says and does. My reasonable assumption is...well....what I've already said.

[DeathRowKitty]

Not buying the claim. The whole "you'd better not lynch me... " thing just doesn't sound like a townie claim. It sounds more like nervous scum.

Interesting that none of the four actions Monkey claimed are confirmable. Vig is almost always part of a JOAT, but it's conveniently missing from this one. Then again, it's probably better not to get into mod in front of me.

Blah, blah, blah, better not to lynch a claimed PR. I say leave him alive another day. He'll still be here tomorrow.

I'm not liking Neto's reaction to the claim. Mostly gut. Sounds like he's trying to appear to be really thinking hard about it. Then again, Reckoner's reaction sounds kind of forced...

Vote: Netopalis

. Better reasoning coming tomorrow.

[DeathRowKitty]

JOAT pretty much always has 4. When I saw JOAT, I thought 4 too.

[DeathRowKitty]

I'll get to more pressing issues in a minute, but first thing's first; look at the votecount:

Vote Count XII
aka the Wow, you guys vote a lot while I'm asleep vote count
[5] MonkeyMan576 - (AlmasterGM, almightybob, Espeonage, xRECKONERx, Netopalis)
[3] Netopalis - (DeathRowKitty, Nikanor, Sakako)
[2] Sakako - (MonkeyMan576, kyle99)
[1] kyle99 - (hitogoroshi)
[0] AlmasterGM - ()
[0] almightybob - ()
[0] DeathRowKitty - ()
[0] Espeonage - ()
[0] hitogoroshi - ()
[0] Lowell - ()
[0] Nikanor - ( )
[0] xRECKONERx - ()
[1] Not Voting - (Lowell)

Lowell has to vote someone who currently has no votes so the vote count (reading upward) will contain the 0th through 5th terms of the Fibbonacci Sequence. We might never get an opportunity like this again. Don't let it go to waste.

[DeathRowKitty]

No, it's dead serious. We can make this happen.

(working on a more useful post now)

[DeathRowKitty]

Fibonacci Vote Count
[5] MonkeyMan576 - (AlmasterGM, almightybob, Espeonage, xRECKONERx, Netopalis)
[3] Netopalis - (DeathRowKitty, Nikanor, Sakako)
[2] Sakako - (MonkeyMan576, kyle99)
[1] kyle99 - (hitogoroshi)
[1] DeathRowKitty - (Lowell)
[0] AlmasterGM - ()
[0] almightybob - ()
[0] Espeonage - ()
[0] hitogoroshi - ()
[0] Lowell - ()
[0] Nikanor - ( )
[0] xRECKONERx - ()
[0] Not Voting - ()

---

Oh, and I'm still getting to that post; I got distracted.

[DeathRowKitty]

Oh, right, I'm supposed to be making a post. Yay for getting distracted!

I agree that Monkey is probably scum. I also think that on the off-chance he really is JOAT, we should give him a night to test it out. He should "use" one of his investigative actions tonight, probably tracker (if he claims to have protected someone, we lynch him on the spot) and we can decide on him tomorrow if he's still alive. It's not like we don't have other good lynches.

The mathematical analysis by Sakako, as fun as it looks, is rather useless because it assumes 50-50 odds on Monkey being scum when the odds are definitely higher than that. Unless we plan on quantifying those odds, no mathematical analysis like that will help. Even then, it would miss important factors.

Wow, if I'm telling the truth you dont believe me and lynch a power role and if I'm scum you punish me for having a good fakeclaim. This is good reasoning.

+5 scum points

@Neto
Love the advertising.

[DeathRowKitty]

Oh, I see. I just skimmed it the first time. Now I've read it.

I object to you giving him a 75% chance of being town in your calculations because the chances of that are much lower. I'd put it at around 20-25%. Then again, assigning a number to it is pretty meaningless right now.

Someone else is scum 25% chance
Monkey is town 8/11 chance (best case) = 1/11 ~ 9.1%
Monkey is scum 3/11 chance (best case) = 3/88 ~ 3.4%

Should be 9/11 and 2/11 because the player removed from the calculation was scum.

If you feel like doing more random math, a more relevant (but honestly, still useless) number to come up with would be the expected gain or loss from lynching or not lynching in terms of number of town/scum that get lynched on average in each case. It's basically a waste of time though unless you just enjoy doing the math.

[DeathRowKitty]

¡uʍoʇ oƃ ˙ɥɐq

[DeathRowKitty]

TRACKER
You are the town Tracker! The mafia have infiltrated your town, and you're determined to stop before it's too late. As a hobby, you've taken up

stalking

...errr, tracking people. Each night, you can target someone, and find out who (if anyone) that person targetted. You win when all threats to the town are eliminated, regardless of whether you survive or not.

Please confirm by responding to this PM. The game thread is here: {insert hyperlink to thread}

^ I was destined to get this role.

I was way off day 1. I got my act together a bit night 1 and tracked Reckoner, only to be NKed (and of course I got the PM telling me Reckoner targetted me >.<). Bleh. For what it's worth, Lowell was one of my stronger town reads when I died and Hito was...well...I think 6th or 7th on my scumlist or something like that.

Good game scum. I voted KittyMo for MVP.