Mini 922 - Mafia in Mo Town [Game Over]

[xRECKONERx]

Not really an unlikely fake claim - think about it...

Claim RB for the vig, doc result can never be confirmed, claim inno on inv, and I dunno what the fourth would be.

Monkey, what are your four abilities?

[MonkeyMan576]

Not really an unlikely fake claim - think about it...

Claim RB for the vig, doc result can never be confirmed, claim inno on inv, and I dunno what the fourth would be.

Monkey, what are your four abilities?

Investigate, Track, Watch, Protect

I can use each one once.

[Netopalis]

Where do you get the magic number 4?

[DeathRowKitty]

Not buying the claim. The whole "you'd better not lynch me... " thing just doesn't sound like a townie claim. It sounds more like nervous scum.

Interesting that none of the four actions Monkey claimed are confirmable. Vig is almost always part of a JOAT, but it's conveniently missing from this one. Then again, it's probably better not to get into mod in front of me.

Blah, blah, blah, better not to lynch a claimed PR. I say leave him alive another day. He'll still be here tomorrow.

I'm not liking Neto's reaction to the claim. Mostly gut. Sounds like he's trying to appear to be really thinking hard about it. Then again, Reckoner's reaction sounds kind of forced...

Vote: Netopalis

. Better reasoning coming tomorrow.

[Netopalis]

Wait a minute. DRK, I don't think you quite get what I'm saying here. Reckoner stated that Monkey had 4 abilities. From my experience, JOAT has a varying number of abilities.

How did Reckoner know that Monkey's claim had 4 abilities unless he's scum with Monkey?

[DeathRowKitty]

JOAT pretty much always has 4. When I saw JOAT, I thought 4 too.

[Netopalis]

Oh. Ok, then. Nevermind.

[Lowell]

Wait a minute. DRK, I don't think you quite get what I'm saying here. Reckoner stated that Monkey had 4 abilities. From my experience, JOAT has a varying number of abilities.

How did Reckoner know that Monkey's claim had 4 abilities unless he's scum with Monkey?

Totally missed that. Nice catch. Also it's weird that not only did reck mention 4 abilites, but then monkey just rolled with it. Even if they're not buddies, it's likely that monkey is scum, and just took the cues he got to define a fake role.

unvote, vote monkey

.

[MonkeyMan576]

That's not true at all. I just assumed that four was the standard amount. I've never played in a game with a jack of all trades so I wouldnt know.

[hitogoroshi]

Sorry for the absence everyone. My other mafia games are...trust me, if you saw then, you'd understand.

Honestly I'm a little weirded out that people pushing lurkers always seem to miss me. I mean, not to look a gift horse in the mouth, but it's a bit worrisome that I could get away with that.

I'm gonna go ahead right now and throw down some serious suspicion to whoever started telling us that deadline is approaching and we need to start instantly compromising. We have like, five days until deadline, and this game is sickeningly active. I'll try to dig up quotes and all that good stuff tomorrow; for now, let it suffice to say that it's premature and unwarranted, particularly because it forced out a claim so early.

Still liking my kyle vote. His Lowell vote especially seems kind of out of left field. Wasn't kyle saying we need to be paranoid to secure a lynch before deadline? Of course I've been scattered as of late so I don't know. I apologize if this is wrong about you, kyle.

You'll be happy to know that tomorrow is a cleaning, homework, and mafia day, and I should be able to actually get some good content going.

[Netopalis]

I've only read 1 game with it in it, actually. I don't remember the game, but I thought it had a different number. My problem was that it's a rather rare role, and I'm not convinced that there's a standard number. However, DRK seems to think so, and I really doubt that if DRK and Reckoner were scum together that DRK would out himself like that.

[KittyMo]

Vote Count XII

[5] MonkeyMan576 - (AlmasterGM, almightybob, Espeonage, Sakako, Lowell)

[2] kyle99 - (hitogoroshi, Netopalis)
[1] Lowell - (kyle99)
[1] Sakako - (MonkeyMan576)
[1] Netopalis - (DeathRowKitty)

[0] AlmasterGM - ()
[0] almightybob - ()
[0] DeathRowKitty - ()
[0] Espeonage - ()
[0] hitogoroshi - ()
[0] Nikanor - ( )
[0] xRECKONERx - ()

[2]

Not Voting

- (Nikanor, xRECKONERx)

With

12

alive, it`s

7

to lynch!

Deadline

is at 7:30AM Pacific Time on Wednesday, February 24th.

[Espeonage]

Think though a boarderline is the best fake claim someone could come up with. The pressure is off due to the last two unvotes. I will keep my vote where it is for now, however I am still suspicious of Monkey as well.

[Espeonage]

EBWOP Kyle at the end there sorry.

[Nikanor]

I can totally jump on a Neto wagon.

Vote:Netopalis.

The joat claim is odd because standard joats would have inspect, protect, block, and kill as their abilities. Monkey's claim can be proved, though, so let's let him live for now.

[Sakako]

Nik, it's true that Monkey's claim can be proven, but why wouldn't he just claim straight off when we asked him for one? It's almost like he was trying to think of something. Not to mention he OMGUSed me when I pointed out that he wasn't claiming.

I'm not moving my vote.

[Nikanor]

Nik, it's true that Monkey's claim can be proven

I'm not moving my vote.

You agree that his claim can be proven, but you're not moving your vote? If he can be confirmed (and even maybe catch scum in the process), I don't see why we wouldn't give him the chance to prove himself.

[Sakako]

Well, look at this. This makes sense to me now -

unvote Monkey.

I'm going to use a Pascal's Wager-type argument to show why we shouldn't lynch Monkey. Of course this can be applied to anyone, but Monkey's made a claim which can actually be checked.

I'm assuming that there are 3 Mafia members in a 12-player game.
Now, we have 9 townies alive at the moment.

The worst case scenario is if we don't lynch Monkey, and he turns out to be scum. In that case, we lynch a townie, and then we're only 3-7 by the start of Day 2, which is a slightly unfavourable position for us - a town wagon could only have 3 members on it, all the scum would quicklynch, and then we'd be 3-5 by Day 3 - of course we'd lynch the hammerer, who'd most likely be scum - and then by Day 4 we'd be 2-4; which is still not a good position to be in.

The best case scenario is if we do lynch Monkey, and he's scum. That way, we're at 2-8 by the start of Day 2, and that's a very advantageous position for us to be in; because we'd have some extra information regarding the interactions between Monkey and others.

---------

Now the other cases, we lynch Monkey, and he's town. In this case, we're at the same position as the worst case - 3-7 by Day 2.

If we don't lynch him, and he's town, then we might lynch either scum (in which case we'd have a best case - 3/11 chance) or town (in which case we'd have a worst case - 8/11 chance).

---------

So in short:

Lynch Monkey - 50/50 chance
Monkey flips town 75% chance (worst case) = 37.5%
Monkey flips scum 25% chance (best case) = 12.5%

Lynch someone else - 50/50 chance
Someone else is town 75% chance
Monkey is town 8/11 chance (good case) = 3/11 ~ 27.3%
Monkey is scum 3/11 chance (worst case) = 9/88 ~ 10.2%
Someone else is scum 25% chance
Monkey is town 8/11 chance (best case) = 1/11 ~ 9.1%
Monkey is scum 3/11 chance (best case) = 3/88 ~ 3.4%

Total good/best case - 12.5 + 27.3 + 12.5 = 52.3
Total bad/worst case - 37.5 + 10.2 = 47.7

--------------

If anyone has any problems with my mathematical logic, please tell me.

[Nikanor]

Is there a tl;dr version of what you want to do?

[Sakako]

Yes, read the first line of my post. I'm not entirely sure of who we should be voting for, but it isn't Monkey; you're right. I was actually starting to write that mathematics to prove my point that we should be voting for him but then I realised that statistically it would be better to put votes on other people.

[Nikanor]

I'm not entirely sure of who we should be voting for

Netoooooooooooo.

[Sakako]

Netoooooooooooo.

Oooh... kaay?

Vote: Netopalis

But why? Has he only come up as a target within the last couple of pages or so? I think I completely missed that boat.

[kyle99]

Netoooooooooooo.

Oooh... kaay?

Vote: Netopalis

But why? Has he only come up as a target within the last couple of pages or so? I think I completely missed that boat.

Damn Sak, I was getting so excited about lynching Lowell and you have to come in and make such a scummy post.

unvote, vote: Sakako

[Sakako]

Well, Kyle, if you had suggested Lowell as a good lynch target for today then I would have done exactly the same thing. I'm just trying to hurry up and get some information - there are only a few days left before deadline.

Yes, call me scummy if you like. But that's the fact - I really don't have any idea of who I should be voting for, at this moment in time.

[MonkeyMan576]

Well, Kyle, if you had suggested Lowell as a good lynch target for today then I would have done exactly the same thing. I'm just trying to hurry up and get some information - there are only a few days left before deadline.

Yes, call me scummy if you like. But that's the fact - I really don't have any idea of who I should be voting for, at this moment in time.

You seem really concerned about who you SHOULD be voting for, rather than who you think is scum...