Mini 922 - Mafia in Mo Town [Game Over]

[xRECKONERx]

Monkey, you were scummy long before your claim. IT'S WHY YOU HAD TO CLAIM.

[DeathRowKitty]

Fibonacci Vote Count
[5] MonkeyMan576 - (AlmasterGM, almightybob, Espeonage, xRECKONERx, Netopalis)
[3] Netopalis - (DeathRowKitty, Nikanor, Sakako)
[2] Sakako - (MonkeyMan576, kyle99)
[1] kyle99 - (hitogoroshi)
[1] DeathRowKitty - (Lowell)
[0] AlmasterGM - ()
[0] almightybob - ()
[0] Espeonage - ()
[0] hitogoroshi - ()
[0] Lowell - ()
[0] Nikanor - ( )
[0] xRECKONERx - ()
[0] Not Voting - ()

---

Oh, and I'm still getting to that post; I got distracted.

[KittyMo]

Fibonacci Vote Count

[5] MonkeyMan576 - (AlmasterGM, almightybob, Espeonage, xRECKONERx, Netopalis)
[3] Netopalis - (DeathRowKitty, Nikanor, Sakako)
[2] Sakako - (MonkeyMan576, kyle99)
[1] kyle99 - (hitogoroshi)
[1] DeathRowKitty - (Lowell)
[0] AlmasterGM - ()
[0] almightybob - ()
[0] Espeonage - ()
[0] hitogoroshi - ()
[0] Lowell - ()
[0] Nikanor - ( )
[0] xRECKONERx - ()
[0]

Not Voting

- ()

Now carry on, carry on.

[DeathRowKitty]

Oh, right, I'm supposed to be making a post. Yay for getting distracted!

I agree that Monkey is probably scum. I also think that on the off-chance he really is JOAT, we should give him a night to test it out. He should "use" one of his investigative actions tonight, probably tracker (if he claims to have protected someone, we lynch him on the spot) and we can decide on him tomorrow if he's still alive. It's not like we don't have other good lynches.

The mathematical analysis by Sakako, as fun as it looks, is rather useless because it assumes 50-50 odds on Monkey being scum when the odds are definitely higher than that. Unless we plan on quantifying those odds, no mathematical analysis like that will help. Even then, it would miss important factors.

Wow, if I'm telling the truth you dont believe me and lynch a power role and if I'm scum you punish me for having a good fakeclaim. This is good reasoning.

+5 scum points

@Neto
Love the advertising.

[Sakako]

The mathematical analysis by Sakako, as fun as it looks, is rather useless because it assumes 50-50 odds on Monkey being scum when the odds are definitely higher than that. Unless we plan on quantifying those odds, no mathematical analysis like that will help. Even then, it would miss important factors.

Actually it assumes 50-50 odds that we'd be lynching Monkey. I guess that's related, but if you'd care to give me a number, I can recalculate.

[MonkeyMan576]

Actually the odds are less than 50-50 me being scum since there are probably 9 town and 3 scum.

[DeathRowKitty]

Oh, I see. I just skimmed it the first time. Now I've read it.

I object to you giving him a 75% chance of being town in your calculations because the chances of that are much lower. I'd put it at around 20-25%. Then again, assigning a number to it is pretty meaningless right now.

Someone else is scum 25% chance
Monkey is town 8/11 chance (best case) = 1/11 ~ 9.1%
Monkey is scum 3/11 chance (best case) = 3/88 ~ 3.4%

Should be 9/11 and 2/11 because the player removed from the calculation was scum.

If you feel like doing more random math, a more relevant (but honestly, still useless) number to come up with would be the expected gain or loss from lynching or not lynching in terms of number of town/scum that get lynched on average in each case. It's basically a waste of time though unless you just enjoy doing the math.

[Lowell]

DRK's love of math warms me, we are kindred spirits.

It still saddens me that we're stuck not lynching monkey. The way he claimed after bitching about claiming is scummy. The way he just rolled with it when someone else mentioned 4 powers is scummy (IF you had four powers and were town, wouldn't you be, um, suspicious of someone who knew how many powers you had?). The way he's trying to defend himself by pretending mafia is a math problem is scummy.

fos monkey

[xRECKONERx]

Attention: I've never seen a JOAT with anything but 4 powers

[kyle99]

I have to say, I'm not really liking Monkey's claim or play as of late. I still think Sakako is the best lynch right now, Sakako's 496 is waaay to scummy to ignore.

[Sakako]

@DRK, I see you saw that error there, however it didn't really matter as they were both good percentages anyway (i.e. sum to 12.5%.) Like I said, the only reason I'm not voting for Monkey any more is because of the claim. Think of it this way; a townie is going to die tonight whether we lynch him or not, and we can always figure out whether he's actually scum tomorrow.

Also, kyle, how come you're the only person saying that? No-one else seems to have taken much notice of that post.

[kyle99]

@DRK, I see you saw that error there, however it didn't really matter as they were both good percentages anyway (i.e. sum to 12.5%.) Like I said, the only reason I'm not voting for Monkey any more is because of the claim. Think of it this way; a townie is going to die tonight whether we lynch him or not, and we can always figure out whether he's actually scum tomorrow.

Also, kyle, how come you're the only person saying that? No-one else seems to have taken much notice of that post.

Right, because if

other

people say it's not scummy than I should think the same thing. Why scumhunt yourself if you can let other people do it? [/sarcasm]

[Sakako]

I only make that point because, let's face it, you haven't exactly been Sherlock Holmes here. If it's, as you say, "

way

too scummy to ignore", then why hasn't someone else picked up on that?

[kyle99]

I only make that point because, let's face it, you haven't exactly been Sherlock Holmes here. If it's, as you say, "

way

too scummy to ignore", then why hasn't someone else picked up on that?

You want me to try to decipher why other people don't think it's scummy? How can I explain other people's thinking?

Oh, and:

[Sakako]

I don't want you to tell me why other people don't think it's scummy. I want you to tell me why you think no-one else has picked it up. It's obviously a minor point.

[MonkeyMan576]

@DRK, I see you saw that error there, however it didn't really matter as they were both good percentages anyway (i.e. sum to 12.5%.) Like I said, the only reason I'm not voting for Monkey any more is because of the claim. Think of it this way; a townie is going to die tonight whether we lynch him or not, and we can always figure out whether he's actually scum tomorrow.

Also, kyle, how come you're the only person saying that? No-one else seems to have taken much notice of that post.

How do you know a townie is going to die tonight? Why couldn't we kill scum?

[Lowell]

Attention: I've never seen a JOAT with anything but 4 powers

Fine. But certainly many people (myself included) wouldn't have known somthing like that. So casually mentioning four powers is scummy. It does look like you're helping to nudge a scummate towards a safer claim. And if you're town that's the kind of information you'd leave to yourself until AFTER monkey's claim, then hit him with it if he named 3, or 5 powers.

unvote, vote monkey

. Sorry fibonacci. I

really

don't like how this claim went down. At all. My next suspect is reckoner if monkey flips scum.

[MonkeyMan576]

3 players confirm that JOAT is almost always 4 powers and people are still making votes based on this? Talking about reaching...

[MonkeyMan576]

When I flip town, Sakuko, Lowell and Neto are my top 3 suspects, Not only are Neto and Lowell on the tail end of an extremly scum driven lynch, but the logic is lousy.

Oh, and I'm actually a

vanilla townie

. I lied because vanilla townie claims usually get lynched for being not useful anyways. I wasn't taking leads from Reck at all, and my flip will prove it. I wouldn't blame the town for lynching me because of the time left, but if you think you can get Sakuko or Lowell, especially, I would try.

At the least, the end of this wagon has provided a great deal of information for the town, this is one of the scummiest wagons I've seen in a long time.

[Espeonage]

Why should we believe you this time if your first claim was fake?

[MonkeyMan576]

I just said I wouldn't blame you for not believing me or lynching me. I'm just trying to be as helpful as I can while I'm still alive.

[xRECKONERx]

Holy shit can we lynch this scumbag right now?

GUYZ LOOK IM JOAT

JK GUYZ LEMME CHANGE MY CLAIM NOW

[Nikanor]

Lying isn't as scummy as you think it is. In fact, this makes me think Monkey is town (scum would have absolutely no reason to go back on a PR claim unless he was caught by a rolecop or something).

[Nikanor]

Oh, and I haven't caught up from yesterday yet. One sec...

[xRECKONERx]

Lying isn't as scummy as you think it is. In fact, this makes me think Monkey is town (scum would have absolutely no reason to go back on a PR claim unless he was caught by a rolecop or something).

Unless you know they see "Hey we should make Monkey use track tonight!" and he's like "Oh fuck I can't bullshit that" so he's like "o guyz i was jk ab the claim lulz"