Mini 907: Tech Tree Mafia (End Game)

[Percy]

Vote: Cobalt

Stupid Drengin.

[Percy]

Hi guys, been having a rough time of it lately, I will post in the next day or so. Sorry all.

[Percy]

Back again, I've been having some horrible sleep issues but things should be OK now!

Bulletproof will be a handy tool to have for pretty much all town. I think it might be a good idea to have everyone grab that either tonight, last night or perhaps night 2. It "wastes" a night of inventing/actions, but it also neutralizes several scum kills (scum then has to kill someone twice to take them out). Other than BP, I think diversifying will be good. But what do you guys think? Should everyone get BP tonight if they haven't already?

Well I'm a little late for setup speculation, but I think going BP is one of several good strategies for a town player. I don't see any advantage in

everyone

going BP, beyond increasing the chances that the scum kill will be blocked - I'd say scum will be boosting their kill tonight anyway.

Vote: Neto.

Tech Victory isn't cool, and pulling a mass tech victory would make this game nothing more than pick off the sitting ducks. Also, even if we, as a whole, decide against it. I still suspect some will go for it.

Vote: Chaco

Too

golly gee whiz

for my book.

I really liked this read of Juls', I lol'd.

The Tech Tree is a distraction, quite honestly. And if we continue discussion it for much longer, we will be assisting scum more than helping town. I'd advise us to start considering buckling down and scumhunting. I really don't give five damns what power ANYONE has. Honestly, you probably shouldn't even care what power you have. We effectively are vanilla with benefits, and roles will NOT win this game.

While I think it's important we get to scum hunting, discussion of the tech tree is absolutely vital to the town's success. Mafia will presumably have at the very least the night and possibly the day to hash out all their possibilities. Leaving town members, people who are probably of varying degrees of commitment to figuring out the tree, to do it on their own is to allow scum to have a significant advantage.

I understand the village idiot angle, but everyone who's in this game has already chosen a level 1 power (I presume), and without a breaking strategy, I don't see the advantage in directing the town. The bottom line is that most abilities are useful in some way, and I don't see anyone presenting a strategy that greatly benefits from open communication about our abilities.

I've thought about this as well, and I've got something akin to a breaking strategy, but it will take a few nights to set up. Here it goes:

The level 1 abilities I consider rather scummy are Blink, Votegift, Boost and Roleblock. I would be surprised if the scum took other abilities (more likely if they suspected they were in multiscum), but I would be more surprised if town took any of these.

Tonight everyone grabs Imitate. N2 we have an Imitate circle (put names in a randomly ordered list and target person below you), and anyone who learns one of these scummy abilities has targetted scum.

This strategy is not guaranteed to work, and there are a lot of assumptions, but I think it's a better strategy than "everyone go BP", especially since Imitate leads to Creativity which

kicks ass

.

Still, I think UK's original suggestion is actually best. I'm not going to waste my time trying to direct VIs to optimal strategy; I can find scum by myself, and I can't outright break the game 100%, so we can leave the strategy discussion for endgame/massclaim time.

Also, Zoraster is right,

you do need to start thinking outside of your town vantage point

and think what scum will be taking. It helps wonders, and it's what led me to show that the BP is utter rubbish.

I think this may very well be scum-Chaco slipping up right here. At least, it's too forced for my liking.

Unvote, Vote: Chaco

.

Townreads on UK and Juls.

[Percy]

No, because you were talking to Cobalt in the quote above.

[Percy]

@Sajin - Yeah, I know, it's not good at all. Still, I'd imagine that all Imitates resolve simultaneously, so anyone who said they got it from Imitate via another Imitate previously picking it up would be lying.
Also, regarding the powers I isolated as scummy (Blink, Votegift, Boost, Roleblock), there is only one non-scummy tier 2 ability that requires one of either of these (Bus Driver) - all others can be reached with much more (imo) pro-town powers. For example, Bodyguard is a more pro-town way of reaching Jailkeep than Roleblock, and BPVest for NK Immunity rather than Blink. If you plan on reaching Unblockable or Grant Bonus Ability, I'd like to lynch you now plzkthx.

The point is, though, that we shouldn't try to break the game or devise strategies right now - I've tried, and I can't see a strategy that the scum can't circumvent or would have a better chance of finding scum than the good old traditional way. Once we pass midgame and we have a fullclaim, that will be the time for strategy. A corollary is that we should stop talking about setup and start scumhunting.

Now as for Chaco, I'm happy to leave my vote there for now. My vote provoked a

further

possible scumslip, but I want to hear more from basically everybody, so I'll ask some questions to get us rolling.

@Sajin:

You still haven't voted, and you seem to have talked about nothing but setup since the game started. Any reads at all?

@malthusis:

Are you still sticking by your vote?

@Vaya

: Similar, suspects please.

@Netopalis:

Do you actually want MafiaSSK lynched for policy reasons, or was the vote "pseudo-random"?

@Cobalt

: You said to justify your Chaco vote:

It's not _just_ setup speculation. He opposes a clearly protown plan. Unless you want tech victory or something, BP was one of the best choices for last night, because it was basically a free invent ability. Anyone who picked BP gets another ability free tonight, because they can't be NK'd.

Your last sentence is false. If scum suspect that enough townies took BP last night, they will have to sacrifice one of their actions in using Boost tonight, but BP or not the target will die (barring the right Roleblock or Blink). As Chaco pointed out, this will no longer waste scum actions once one of them gets Creativity.
Do you still think that his setup speculation deserved a vote, or do you think he's scum for different reasons now?
I also flatly reject your statement that a townie's choices last night were BP or climb to Tech Victory.

[Percy]

7) Chaco, representative of the

Krynn Consulate

(4) - zoraster, Cobalt, Percy, Juls, Pomegranate

Is this accurate, Mod?

No. I'll fix it ASAP (goddamn site problems messing with my edit powers).

Update: Fixed now. - Tar

But if there's a good reason I could be convinced. And yes, this is blatantly born out of me not paying attention.

I refer you to

my post

on the issue and the four posts that follow it. I'm not convinced that it's a great reason, but it's the best lead I've got so far.

[Percy]

Are you going to snow me in with text walls like you did last game as scum Percy?

Sure!

It's really hard to find solid info on to lynch in this game. The past 5 pages have been mostly setup speculation (which is mostly an null tell in my opinion), and RVS. Even though I have slight inclinations on who is scum/town, I really feel uncomfortable lynching a person such little evidence. I still haven't made up my mind on who to lynch yet, but I will definitely be deciding who to put my vote on tomorrow if nothing important happens.

What are these "slight inclinations"? Why are you holding back your vote and your reads to jump on a deadline wagon tomorrow?

In other news, deadline is really close. Just to make this clear:

<10> If no one has reached majority by deadline, one of the following three things will happen:
a) If a majority of voting players are voting for a player, that player will be lynched.
b) If more than half of voting players are voting for one of two players, each of those players will send me a haiku. Whichever one is more amusing will be spared the rope. (Example: If thirteen players are voting out of 21, and 4 of those are voting for Player A and 5 are voting for Player B, Player A and Player B will need to send me haikus.)
c) If neither a) nor b) are applicable, No Lynch will occur.

Currently Chaco is on three votes (Pomegranate didn't Unvote before switching to malthusis) and Cobalt is on three votes, so we are in case c). I suspect that Pomegranate will unvote when she sees this, so at this rate we'll definitely end up in case c). This is not good. I'm going to leave my vote on Chaco and see what he posts before deadline; however, I'm equally comfortable with a malthusis lynch at this point.

[Percy]

@zoraster

: In your BP scenario, two townies are protected by BP. As I've already mentioned several times, BP is not going to save

anyone

, though it has the potential to waste scum actions if the scum

believe

that there are a lot of town players with BP. You know this, because you've talked about it before.

None of this is a replacement for scum hunting, and our chances increase incredibly the more we lynch scum.

Anyway: that comes to who to lynch. I don't think Chaco is a good choice, despite how close we are to the deadline. Obviously I'd rather lynch him than no lynch today, but rereading him doesn't make him seem very scummy to me. Both Malth and SSK seem better choices for today.

I find it highly ironic that the first sentence appears in the quote above. Your vote on Chaco was due to setup talk. As far as I can tell, talking about the tech tree is the only thing you've done today so far. You say that Malth and SSK are better choices than Chaco, but why? You're not scumhunting at all, yet telling us all how important it is.

FoS: zoraster

.

I think that with malth's vote, the haiku-scenario goes into effect.

Unless zoraster votes, and it's someone not Chaco or Cobalt, this is true.

@malthusis

: Your vote is weak, and applies no pressure and reads like a concerted attempt to avoid responsibility.

I'm sticking with my Chaco vote for now - if I switch to malthusis along with zoraster, combined with Pom's vote that makes three with Cobalt, in which case there is no lynch (6 voting players out of 12, rather than out of 11). If a fourth party votes malthusis, I'll change my vote.

[Percy]

I feel very stupid for my play D1; I might as well have screamed "HAY SCUM I DIDN'T TAKE BP STACKS ON PERCY"!

Glad my read on Chaco was right, and that the scumslips I caught were actual slips

Hey Tar, when you pick deadline lynches by haiku, I don't understand how you can remain impartial, given that you know the player's alignments. I'm not so sure I liked that idea.

But the tech tree is amazing, and I can't wait to see what everyone got up to at night!

Thanks for running Tar, I enjoyed my short time in this game