Open 143: Jungle Republic (Game Over!) before 787

[dejkha]

dejkha, why do you think we should lynch people? (I'm going somewhere with this - I think the meta-theory on this is important.)

For people in general, I think they should be lynched for scummy behavior and/or playing unlike themselves when compared to similar game situations/conditions. Not so much in Emps case though. He should just be lynched for being him.

I don't think everything he does is "null", even if he is more difficult to read. I have noticed that he responds to almost all questions levied against him (I don't recall him missing one of mine), yet you seem content to lob meta-hate at him rather than inquire towards him so as to determine his alignment. That's disturbing.

When a question to him ultimately leads to him calling me scummy for questioning him, I don't see the point.

However, what is making me feel more uncertain about him personally is the prevailing attitude of not talking about people he thinks are scum, or really asking questions of anyone except AA. I'd like for him to be more involved in the rest of the game, really, and ask questions. He may just be a player who keeps his cards close to his chest, and this is my first game with him and I don't trust a single word out of AA's mouth so I can't judge on meta, but I really do think full disclosure time is fast approaching.

Believe it or not, I rarely take the approach of asking questions. They more likely come in the form of comments that that person responds to. I'm fairly suspicious Thesp, but I can't really ask much questions to a guy that didn't feel the need to give his opinion until very recently, except for"why did he wait"? And that was already answered when I questioned it earlier. For everyone else, they're not saying as much as some of the more active posters, but they also don't seem very scummy.

Khamisa - post 148 - - he corrected my own mistake on the set up and expressed a good knowledge of the set up. I think in light of this, that he is planting that, and you, Thesp, are hopping on it because he could be your buddy.

I see where you're going with this, but that and how it appeared she was unaware of that both tug me in an opposite direction, leaving me right where I started. But, you refer to it as her correcting your own mistake when after that post you explain how it wasn't a mistake. Why is it a mistake now?

I appreciate you looking back for that, but I don't think you should incriminate Thesp because he got the notion of her being town, because I'm sure a lot of people didn't remember post 148.

If my read is correct on Dej, he seems to have been hunting townies and scum (the only targets that remain for a Wolf, since he knows who his partner is - MIX)

This implies Zwet and Ace were not scummy. Why would you vote for Ace if he wasn't scummy? Not two mention how that logic could be applied to anyone who was on both wagons, but you continue to single me out for some reason. That post also implies that I know who town and scum are, which is also impossible.

No suspicions on Mix, the person I regard as his potential wold partner.

No suspicions on hewitt either. Neither of them posted much up to that point so I forgot to include them.

His wolf buddy Dej seemingly made a point NOT to suspect him throughout the entire game,

No, I made the point that I DONT suspect him. I never said I'll never suspect him. More lies. It never ends, does it? Yet, you still expect people to take you seriously.

Right now I think he is fixating on AA. While I can understand and even emphasize with his frustrations I don't think he is paying enough attention to the rest of the game. I have to wonder if this constant back and forth bickering that the two of them have going isn't helping dej hide to a certain degree. Fair enough he does answer questions leveled at him and even defends himself when necessary, but when it comes to actually hunting scum... I'm not really feeling a lot of that from him which is troubling.

I've actually played that like that once while town. I've been in a constant back and forth with someone who deeply suspected me and when that happens, a lot of the times it's hard for me to get out of defending myself from that one person. I forget the name of the game, but it was a Mod Abandoned open game in New York if you want to check it out.

Since Percy backed out.

Unvote Vote: AA

Vote Count

Sotty7 2 - AA23, Thesp
dejkha 2 - Hewitt, Percy
Empking 1 - dejkha
AA23 1 - Empking
Percy 1 - Sotty7

[AA23]

For people in general, I think they should be lynched for scummy behavior and/or playing unlike themselves when compared to similar game situations/conditions.

Not so much in Emps case though. He should just be lynched for being him.

This narrow mindedness makes it hard to trust your logic.

I see where you're going with this, but that and how it appeared she was unaware of that both tug me in an opposite direction, leaving me right where I started. But, you refer to it as her correcting your own mistake when after that post you explain how it wasn't a mistake. Why is it a mistake now?

I'm not sure what you mean by this - - but I'm stating that Khamisa is not truly clueless to whether scum can talk - - it's a topic that is on the first page AND was spoken about already - - it's suspicious.

I appreciate you looking back for that, but I don't think you should incriminate Thesp because he got the notion of her being town, because I'm sure a lot of people didn't remember post 148.

Thesp wasn't around when all of us were on the same page and knew how many villains there were, and who could talk during the day.

I'll take that - it's reason enough to give Thesp the benefit of the doubt - but the attempt can very much have been made by Khamisa, and if scum can speak any time, there is always the possibility they spoke about it.

If my read is correct on Dej, he seems to have been hunting townies and scum (the only targets that remain for a Wolf, since he knows who his partner is - MIX)

This implies Zwet and Ace were not scummy. Why would you vote for Ace if he wasn't scummy? Not two mention how that logic could be applied to anyone who was on both wagons, but you continue to single me out for some reason.

It's not a matter of where solid votes went - - it's the matter of where your investigative scope directed itself - -

you have a habit of trying to "sum up" what I say, and in the process, you misrepresent it (ironically) - please stop

No suspicions on hewitt either. Neither of them posted much up to that point so I forgot to include them.

True, however you have given him attention you haven't given Mix.

And (primarily) you and Mix have shared the same hunting patterns.

His wolf buddy Dej seemingly made a point NOT to suspect him throughout the entire game,

No, I made the point that I DONT suspect him. I never said I'll never suspect him. More lies. It never ends, does it? Yet, you still expect people to take you seriously.

You're misrepresenting me again.

You seem to feel that things need to be literal and direct to be "true".

It is

fair

for me to say that you have been a bold voice that has NOT been

for

the Mix vote.

It would be very ignorant of you to suggest I'm wrong saying that you are against the Mix vote.

You're picking more fights.

I think you're hiding behind your childish bickering. You even admit you don't ask questions (which, sorry, constitutes as not scum hunting....which doesn't help us very much, does it?)

Since Percy backed out.

Unvote Vote: AA

That's your reason?

So Dej. When you're not bickering, and are admittedly not scumhunting via asking questions - - can you explain how I am worthy of a vote?

And do let the reasons be better than "just for being AA" - - what you think works for Emp doesn't jive well for everyone else, I'm sure.

I think you're reacting to the pressure, Dej. Keep at it.

[dejkha]

It's not a matter of where solid votes went - - it's the matter of where your investigative scope directed itself - -

you have a habit of trying to "sum up" what I say, and in the process, you misrepresent it (ironically) - please stop.

You said I'm hunting townies. That would mean I voted for two people that specifically weren't scummy. Why would you do the same thing with Ace?

You're misrepresenting me again.

You seem to feel that things need to be literal and direct to be "true".

It is

fair

for me to say that you have been a bold voice that has NOT been

for

the Mix vote.

It would be very ignorant of you to suggest I'm wrong saying that you are against the Mix vote.

You said I made a point NOT to suspect Mix the entire game. That means that I made the point that I would never suspect him, which I didn't. It's not misrepresenting when that's what you said.

That's your reason?

So Dej. When you're not bickering, and are admittedly not scumhunting via asking questions - - can you explain how I am worthy of a vote?

And do let the reasons be better than "just for being AA" - - what you think works for Emp doesn't jive well for everyone else, I'm sure.

It all comes down to your massive wifom, constant lying, misrepresenting and word twisting in order to put things in your favor and incriminate others. I can't see how anyone else can be considered scummier than someone who repeatedly does these things to no end. Even if you were a tunnel visioned townie, there's no reason to do these things. So quite frankly I'm a little confused as to my anyone isn't voting you.

I think you're reacting to the pressure, Dej.

Whoa, whoa, whoa... since when do you think?

[AA23]

You said I'm hunting townies. That would mean I voted for two people that specifically weren't scummy. Why would you do the same thing with Ace?

Dej, as a wolf, it wouldn't matter who you're after, everyone is the enemy - I'm pointing out that in accordance to my suspicions, as a wolf, your attempts to vote and kill opposition were paralelled to Mix, making you partners.

You both had the same reads on who were mafiascum - - they are on the same people I regarded as such - -

You said I made a point NOT to suspect Mix the entire game. That means that I made the point that I would never suspect him, which I didn't. It's not misrepresenting when that's what you said.

Now it's just annoying, Dej.

Fine:

Dej, have you ever had any positive thoughts toward presented suspicions, cases, or votes toward Mix?

Did you ever want anything to do with a wagon on him?

Was I wrong to infer that you boldly wanted nothing to do with the Mix Wagon? (and do trust everyone else is following this absurd issue you're making over nonesense)

That's your reason?

So Dej. When you're not bickering, and are admittedly not scumhunting via asking questions - - can you explain how I am worthy of a vote?

And do let the reasons be better than "just for being AA" - - what you think works for Emp doesn't jive well for everyone else, I'm sure.

It all comes down to your massive

wifom

, constant

lying

,

misrepresenting

and

word twisting

in order to put things in your favor and incriminate others. I can't see how anyone else can be considered scummier than someone who repeatedly does these things to no end.

Even if you were a tunnel visioned townie

, there's no reason to do these things. So quite frankly I'm a little confused as to my anyone isn't voting you.

Hypocritical.

lying, misrep, and word twisting are all

one thing

in any context you choose to present it.

Furthermore - they are all opinionated - - we've all seen what you regard as a LIE.

If you think I'm mistaken on something or have poorly inferred something - call that out - but saying it's a lie and voting me for it (while hypocritically playing a word game to make one point seem like many) just to vote me?

That's weak. And it's reaching. And THAT'S why I think you're reacting to pressure.

**Any poor inference or misrepresentation by means of "summarizing" interpretations that I'm illegedly guilty of are things you yourself have done. For every one count you find of me inferring something differently or misreping, I can find two for you**

Oh and just a side note - - your entire case is opinionated and only attempts to prove I've been a rushy and poorly phrased player - - I've done none of the forementioned things to achieve scum goals of any sort.

Manipulate people? I've had everyone against me!
Lie? That's your opinion - - why would I risk lying about something stupid and small that achieves nothing, anyhow?

So once again, Dej - I see you reacting to pressure. That's all.

[AA23]

**And for the record - I know we're having another head a tete, but I'd like to thank you for being more civil - I can notice already and will happily reciprocate the maturity.

I'm happy to answer questions, I'm happy to hear you out - -

we just need to learn to settle on agreeing to disagree

[dejkha]

Dej, as a wolf, it wouldn't matter who you're after, everyone is the enemy - I'm pointing out that in accordance to my suspicions, as a wolf, your attempts to vote and kill opposition were paralelled to Mix, making you partners.

You both had the same reads on who were mafiascum - - they are on the same people I regarded as such - -

You say that because I was part of a two town lynches, that I am hunting town. Why do me and mix have to be werewolves hunting town? Why can we not be mafia hunting scum, but instead had mislynches and Ash was our partner? Or why can we not both be town and just had mislynches? Like Percy said, all you're doing is saying things so they work with your theory.

Now it's just annoying, Dej.

Fine:

Dej, have you ever had any positive thoughts toward presented suspicions, cases, or votes toward Mix?

Did you ever want anything to do with a wagon on him?

Was I wrong to infer that you boldly wanted nothing to do with the Mix Wagon? (and do trust everyone else is following this absurd issue you're making over nonesense)

1. Only that the hammer was a scummy thing to do, but I didn't feel like it was anything to make a big deal out of.
2. Not for the reasons you do. Possibly if something else came up.
3. You are correct, I wanted nothing to do with the Mix wagon, for reasons you presented.

Hypocritical.

lying, misrep, and word twisting are all one thing in any context you choose to present it.

Furthermore - they are all opinionated - - we've all seen what you regard as a LIE.

When you say people have said things they haven't, that's lying. And you've done that on many occasions.

If you think I'm mistaken on something or have poorly inferred something - call that out - but saying it's a lie and voting me for it (while hypocritically playing a word game to make one point seem like many) just to vote me?

When you're lying, misrepresenting and twisting words, why would I not vote you for it?

That's weak. And it's reaching. And THAT'S why I think you're reacting to pressure.

Again, since when do you think?

**Any poor inference or misrepresentation by means of "summarizing" interpretations that I'm illegedly guilty of are things you yourself have done. For every one count you find of me inferring something differently or misreping, I can find two for you**

Then how come most people have made mention of you doing these things, yet you seem to be the only one that has made mention of me doing them? Who cares, you'd probably misrep what I said in order to find two for every one you did.

Oh and just a side note - - your entire case is opinionated and only attempts to prove I've been a rushy and poorly phrased player - - I've done none of the forementioned things to achieve scum goals of any sort.

Lying, misreping and twisting words are a good way to make town lynch someone not on your faction, believe it or not.

Manipulate people? I've had everyone against me!
Lie? That's your opinion - - why would I risk lying about something stupid and small that achieves nothing, anyhow?

I don't recall saying you were manipulating anyone, so I never accused you of lying about that (not sure where you got that idea). I'm only accusing you of lying about things that you have in fact lied about.

So once again, Dej - I see you reacting to pressure. That's all.

Apparently stupidity and pressure come in the same package.

**And for the record - I know we're having another head a tete, but I'd like to thank you for being more civil - I can notice already and will happily reciprocate the maturity.

I'm happy to answer questions, I'm happy to hear you out - -

we just need to learn to settle on agreeing to disagree

Let's not get ahead of ourselves now. I'll be more civil, but not quite civil. Let's not put things in stone. And can you please take a second before you post to think of anything else you have to say? Almost every time you post it's followed by another for a double post.

[AA23]

Why do me and mix have to be werewolves hunting town? Why can we not be mafia hunting scum, but instead had mislynches and Ash was our partner?

Because you show a relationship with one other person (making two in total which equals wolf) - - and you and that other person seemed to have been hunting toward three other people who I reckon are Scum - - it's a matter of numbers that determined the allignment.

You and Mix were interested in the same people and played alike.

Mod: Can you please prod Khamisa and Ash? And can we get a vote count?

You both kept asking to bring in Khamisa and Ash (One flipped scum, the other suspected) two thirds of one faction.

Like I said, it's numbers that make you wolf and not scum. - - I regard your behavior as practically buddying with Mix(Sotty), your play is parallel, and you have suspected the same group of people, one of which is confirmed mafia (and since you wouldn't be hunting your own) it makes you wolf (and further makes sense why you're seemingly in league with only one other person)

Or why can we not both be town and just had mislynches? Like Percy said, all you're doing is saying things so they work with your theory.

The theory developed in observing you and others - - I didn't form the theory out of a hat and play a game to make it fit.

1. Only that

the hammer was a scummy thing to do

, but I didn't feel like it was anything to make a big deal out of.
2. Not for the reasons you do. Possibly if something else came up.
3. You are correct, I wanted nothing to do with the Mix wagon, for reasons you presented.

Hypocritical.

One of my PRIMARY reasons was that the hammer was scummy. You only now voice that you agree with that point?

Lying, misreping and twisting words are a good way to make town lynch someone not on your faction, believe it or not.

Manipulate people? I've had everyone against me!
Lie? That's your opinion - - why would I risk lying about something stupid and small that achieves nothing, anyhow?

I don't recall saying you were manipulating anyone, so I never accused you of lying about that (not sure where you got that idea). I'm only accusing you of lying about things that you have in fact lied about.

"I want to kick your father in the balls until he bleeds from the mouth just to be sure that he never fowls the earth with another useless offspring." - you ever hear that phrase?

I'll come back to it - - because the above movie quote Dej, which you oh so remind me of, is a prime example of LITERAL words with CONNOTATIONS.

See, if someone said that quote to me - - I would tell someone "they don't like me!"

and you would go "Bah humbug!! They never said they didn't like you! You're a liar"

Do you see how it works? Eh? Do you understand connotation, implication, and inference, now?

It all comes down to your massive wifom, constant lying, misrepresenting and word

twisting in order to put things in your favor and incriminate others.

Do you understand that when you say things - - they come with connotations? They come with implications? Things to be inferred and understood?

Like the comment about "kicking your dad in the balls until there is nothing left but wet bloody pelvic bone in an attempt to create new form of birth control" - - do you see how the quote uses LITERAL words to SUGGEST and IMPLY that someone doesn't like you?

Well in the above quote (about manipulation), you imply that the

reason

I

illegedly

lie is to twist thought processes in the town to my own devicces? THAT is manipulating.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Every. Single. Account. Of lies.

All of them - they aren't lies, it's misinterpretations at best, Dej.

You see - - technically, you do NOTHING BUT LIE. But I don't call it out.

Here is an example, of something that you would call me a liar for, that you did earlier:

I dun care

. Also, I just noticed how

you never spoke up against the reasons for voting him, until

after

he was lynched

. As far as I could tell, you

never even tried to explain why Zwets approach to a CC wasn't scummy until

after

he was lynched

. I guess you were just waiting to set people up on it.

Are you a liar?
people wanted to vote him over planning a future lynch, and mentioning a CC - - I kicked up a fuss about the CC business and implicated Emp - - I shared the same view as Zwet on CC's and saw nothing wrong- and after that:

Isn't he [Zwet] saying that he would lynch Dust if the scum didn't NK him? Which would suggest Dust is scum and

make perfect sense?

And you said you didn't understand the first paragraph - reread post 300-302

You're still not coming across very town like to me - you're unclear and inaccurate

Hence I feel Hewitt is failing to say anything relevent - - he's

voting you for making a statement that all of us are more or less on the same page with

(the idea that Dust not being NK'd as very suspicious)

Yet between posts 300-302, he agreed with Ace that if Dust were alive tomorrow, he would want a CC.

Kind of a hypocrisy, not very sensible, and I feel like Hewitt is talking out of his hat so he can get out of the lurker stage.

Which he has yet to do for me.

Ace & Hewitt, not looking too hot.

Yeah, but if Dust DOES survive tonight,

a lynch would be greatly considered.

We would run the risk of having a mislynch today - a towny killed tonights - and then us lynching someone Dust points to tomorrow? What if it's another towny and after NK2 we're left with 4 innocents dead?

Hence I don't think it's reason enough to L-1 him

Do you understand that unlike you, I recognize INACCURACY - -

so either you're a lying hypocrite, or you should take some deep and slow breaths before you type like an attention deprived child about things you don't seem to understand.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Keep this in mind.

Picture my hate for you.

I told you that thinking I weren't town would be stupid. That thinking I were a villain would make you WRONG again.

Is it really that hard to believe me? To believe that I look forward to gloating in your face at the endgame about how terrible you are at this game? How you were early on two town wagons with passion, and furthermore were wrong about me just as you lost your town in our previous game for being wrong about me then? Count the "wrongs" Dej.

I want you to picture it. The town (whether win or lose). I want you to picture me laughing at you in the endgame.

I would accept I'm town already, and save the humiliation, or clean up your scum hunting. You dont' ask questions to scum hunt, you feed off of other people's thoughts on other players, and now that you're pressed against a wall and caught, you're lashing out more than ever and are hiding behind childish antics and arguments with me.

Nobody on this forum is illogical enough to invest a single moment in your silly statements about me being a liar and manipulating this town. I've passionately pushed my points and ideas despite the hatred and suspicions of virtually everyone here. I don't have any major leadership sway of any kind and I've risked my life in this town trying to save it from people like you with theories like mine.

Clean up your act - get off my case - and try actually playing the game (hint - questions and interrogating are a good place to start - - oh, and thinking for yourself based on observations) - -

[Empking]

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Keep this in mind.

Picture my hate for you.

I told you that thinking I weren't town would be stupid. That thinking I were a villain would make you WRONG again.

Is it really that hard to believe me? To believe that I look forward to gloating in your face at the endgame about how terrible you are at this game? How you were early on two town wagons with passion, and furthermore were wrong about me just as you lost your town in our previous game for being wrong about me then? Count the "wrongs" Dej.

I want you to picture it. The town (whether win or lose). I want you to picture me laughing at you in the endgame.

I would accept I'm town already, and save the humiliation, or clean up your scum hunting. You dont' ask questions to scum hunt, you feed off of other people's thoughts on other players, and now that you're pressed against a wall and caught, you're lashing out more than ever and are hiding behind childish antics and arguments with me.

Nobody on this forum is illogical enough to invest a single moment in your silly statements about me being a liar and manipulating this town. I've passionately pushed my points and ideas despite the hatred and suspicions of virtually everyone here. I don't have any major leadership sway of any kind and I've risked my life in this town trying to save it from people like you with theories like mine.

Clean up your act - get off my case - and try actually playing the game (hint - questions and interrogating are a good place to start - - oh, and thinking for yourself based on observations) - -

Wow. Just, wow.

[dejkha]

Because you show a relationship with one other person (making two in total which equals wolf) - - and you and that other person seemed to have been hunting toward three other people who I reckon are Scum - - it's a matter of numbers that determined the alignment.

You and Mix were interested in the same people and played alike.

We don't show a relationship. What we show is a lack of a relationship and that's why you think it's scummy. That's a horrible way to think of things. That's the equivalent to saying anytime anyone ever suspects the same people, but not each other they must be scum. Given how many times that happens in mafia, it's rarely true.

The theory developed in observing you and others - - I didn't form the theory out of a hat and play a game to make it fit.

That's not how you formed it, but that's how you're supporting it.

Hypocritical.

One of my PRIMARY reasons was that the hammer was scummy. You only now voice that you agree with that point?

Maybe I should've rephrased that: it was a scummy thing to do, but I didn't think it was anything to make a big deal out of.

Well in the above quote (about manipulation), you imply that the reason I illegedly lie is to twist thought processes in the town to my own devicces? THAT is manipulating.

That's really all you needed to say, I just didn't think of it like that.

Are you a liar?

You think I'm a liar for calling you scummy for something that you actually did? I'm not surprised.

**Keep this in mind.

Picture my hate for you.

I told you that thinking I weren't town would be stupid. That thinking I were a villain would make you WRONG again.

And I told you that you are, in fact, stupid. So that actually counters you thinking that.

Is it really that hard to believe me? To believe that I look forward to gloating in your face at the endgame about how terrible you are at this game? How you were early on two town wagons with passion, and furthermore were wrong about me just as you lost your town in our previous game for being wrong about me then?

Count the "wrongs" Dej.

I would, but I'm trying to get past how retarded you are. Guess it's a family thing. Trust me, that's much more distracting. Don't get me wrong though, it hasn't completely gotten you yet because you're still able to form coherent sentences, granted I've never actually seen a retards writing ability but I can't imagine it's very good.

I want you to picture it. The town (whether win or lose). I want you to picture me laughing at you in the endgame.

*Pictures it* Sorry, but when I think of you laughing, this is all that comes to mind:

Nobody on this forum is illogical enough to invest a single moment in your silly statements about me being a liar and manipulating this town.

XD, except you, dumbass.

I don't have any major leadership sway of any kind and I've risked my life in this town trying to save it from people like you with theories like mine.

When your theories are based purely off of something that could've happened whether I'm town or scum, it's not saving anyone. So either you're to proud to admit it (which would mean you lied) or you really are that stupid. And I've said, if you admit to the latter then I'll cut you some slack. If you're honest for once it would actually have a desirable effect.

Clean up your act - get off my case - and try actually playing the game (hint - questions and interrogating are a good place to start - - oh, and thinking for yourself based on observations) - -

The only way I'll get off your case is if you extract some of the extra air out of your head and inject it right into my veins.

Oh boy, that was fun. I wasn't too harsh was I? It's official though, you're worse that Empking. You're like Empking if he had a giant ego and a retarded family member.

I'll admit though, it was enjoyable reading that last bit of your post, I just couldn't get the smile off my face.

[AA23]

I would, but

I'm trying to get past how retarded you are. Guess it's a

family thing

.

Trust me, that's much more distracting. Don't get me wrong though,

it hasn't completely gotten you yet because you're still able to form coherent sentences, granted I've never actually seen a

retards writing ability but I can't imagine it's very good.

Oh boy,

that was fun.

I wasn't too harsh was I?

It's official though, you're worse that Empking. You're like Empking if he had a giant ego and a

retarded family member.

I'll admit though, it was enjoyable reading that last bit of your post, I just couldn't get the smile off my face.

That's too far. How dare you.

[AA23]

It's a game Dej - - you don't have to be a sore loser about it.



Town:
*I'm taking a couple of days to cool off and am not sure about coming back.

[dejkha]

At least I can read the thread without you here before my inevitable replacement. Totally worth it though.

[Thesp]

Thesp, I asked those who supported the "Sotty is scum" theory whether they have found any evidence today that points to her scumminess. Honestly, I don't think there is any.

No, I don't think there is either. I think Sotty7 has played exceptionally well for whatever team she's on. I just think she's on a scum team.

WARNING! WARNING! MATHS AHEAD!

Percy, I haven't gone through the calcs and percentages myself, but I think there's something else that might aid our position. Are you accounting for potential crosskills?

Yep, full analysis involves every possibility.

Just in case you want to know how I do it, I'll describe what I did, and my first mistake.

I've got a nice big blackboard at work, but a big piece of paper will do. I start with

4/2/2

written at the top, corresponding to 4 townies, 2 wolves, 2 mafia. I then start a tree diagram, beginning with the lynch, so my next row looks like

3/2/2 4/1/2 4/2/1

with arrows and appropriate probability weightings from the top (1/2 for the first, and 1/4 for the others in this case - with 4 townies, there's a 50% chance we'll hit one if we lynch at random, and so forth). Then, I factor in the NK, so the next row looks like

2/2/2 3/2/1 3/1/2 4/1/1 3/2/1 4/2/0

These are all the possible lineups we could be facing tomorrow. Each of these possibilities is possibly winnable for the town, but some are far better than others. There are, of course, probability arrows that come from each of the possibilities in the second row down to the third row (the arrows coming from the first entry in the second row being 3/5 and 2/5).

This tree becomes incredibly big, and whenever a game ends in a particular faction win scenario, I stop and mark it. I then simply multiply the probabilities along each branch that is marked with a particular faction's win, and add them all together. Then I go to the second faction. This is enough to determine the third faction (the probabilities add up to 1), but I did the third just to confirm.

It's a lot simpler if you have a game with one mafia faction and one town faction - the nightkill simply removes a townie, and each lynch only has two branches, not three. Thus one day only has two possible days that can follow, rather than six. It's not too hard, and everyone should try it if they're making setups.

Initially, I didn't attach weightings to the branches, which was far too optimistic and skewed the results in the town's favour. Whilst it was a working

estimate

, the way I did it the second time around is mathematically sound.

So sorry that's such a long answer to your question, but yes, those probabilities are full and accurate.

[aside]I'd love to see a setup designed by you someday. Have you given any thought to designing Open Games?[/aside]

---

Khamisa - post 148 - - he corrected my own mistake on the set up and expressed a good knowledge of the set up.

I'm not convinced that knowing the numbers of scum is as rock-solid knowledge of the setup as is knowing night-talking abilities. (Looks like Percy beats me to this.)

---

hewitt

is trying to scumhunt? I'm having a very hard time following you there.

Haha okay I'm actually going to have to agree with you here and not Empking. I think I'm sucking in this game so I'm surprised that he's all the sudden defending me.

Needs more Sotty7 lynch.

No.

Right now I think he is fixating on AA. While I can understand and even emphasize with his frustrations I don't think he is paying enough attention to the rest of the game. I have to wonder if this constant back and forth bickering that the two of them have going isn't helping dej hide to a certain degree. Fair enough he does answer questions leveled at him and even defends himself when necessary, but when it comes to actually hunting scum... I'm not really feeling a lot of that from him which is troubling.

I agree 100,000%.

---

dejkha, why do you think we should lynch people? (I'm going somewhere with this - I think the meta-theory on this is important.)

For people in general, I think they should be lynched for scummy behavior and/or playing unlike themselves when compared to similar game situations/conditions. Not so much in Emps case though. He should just be lynched for being him.

See, I think we should lynch people

because they are more likely to be scum

. Sure, you can meta-lynch someone because you feel their playstyle is unhelpful, but it won't help your win condition in this game. I'm feeling that you're hiding behind this decidedly anti-town position as a matter of convenience rather than for practicality. The further you press it, the more it moves from being simply "anti-town" to "anti-town and more-likely-to-be-scum".

I don't think everything he does is "null", even if he is more difficult to read. I have noticed that he responds to almost all questions levied against him (I don't recall him missing one of mine), yet you seem content to lob meta-hate at him rather than inquire towards him so as to determine his alignment. That's disturbing.

When a question to him ultimately leads to him calling me scummy for questioning him, I don't see the point.

Why are you worried about someone calling you scummy?

Whoa, whoa, whoa... since when do you think?
...
Apparently stupidity and pressure come in the same package.
...
And I told you that you are, in fact, stupid. So that actually counters you thinking that.
...
I would, but I'm trying to get past how retarded you are. Guess it's a family thing. Trust me, that's much more distracting. Don't get me wrong though, it hasn't completely gotten you yet because you're still able to form coherent sentences, granted I've never actually seen a retards writing ability but I can't imagine it's very good.
...
Oh boy, that was fun. I wasn't too harsh was I? It's official though, you're worse that Empking. You're like Empking if he had a giant ego and a retarded family member.

This is inappropriate and absolutely uncalled for.

so either you're a lying hypocrite, or you should take some deep and slow breaths before you type like an attention deprived child about things you don't seem to understand.

As is this.

**Keep this in mind.

Picture my hate for you.

I told you that thinking I weren't town would be stupid. That thinking I were a villain would make you WRONG again.

Is it really that hard to believe me? To believe that I look forward to gloating in your face at the endgame about how terrible you are at this game? How you were early on two town wagons with passion, and furthermore were wrong about me just as you lost your town in our previous game for being wrong about me then? Count the "wrongs" Dej.

I want you to picture it. The town (whether win or lose). I want you to picture me laughing at you in the endgame.

I think this would be an inappropriate response. If you're town, you should be frustrated with yourself for allowing dejkha to distract the town significantly. The wall of words between both of you has made re-reads nearly impossible from a practical standpoint. It's anti-town on the part of both of you.

---

Empking, we need a couple of answers from you, if I recall correctly.

---

Here are a couple of articles Wikipedia has amongst its own policies on handling disagreements:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Etiquette
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia: ... _bad_faith
Now, we come to the game with different perspectives, and we are also cognizant that the people we are speaking with may not have our best interests (from a game standpoint) in mind. Still, these principles are sound and easily applicable, and should be exhibited a little bit more, methinks. It's appropriate to disagree, and in all seriosuness, most of the AA23/dejkha argument boils down to "uh huh! / Nuh uh!" Reasonable people can disagree on things. Cool it.

Town:
*I'm taking a couple of days to cool off and am not sure about coming back.

I think this is a good idea. Please do. I hope you return.

[Thesp]

I'm fine lynching dejkha instead of Sotty7, even though I feel like I shouldn't be.

[dejkha]

Why are you worried about someone calling you scummy?

The point is that you can't get any helpful answers from him. That regardless of what you ask him it will always end with him calling you scummy because you're not satisfied with his awful, awful answers. Anytime Percy was questioning him it shouldn't have been terribly hard to see that he wasn't getting anything other than typical Emp.

[Thesp]

Why are you worried about someone calling you scummy?

The point is that you can't get any helpful answers from him. That regardless of what you ask him it will always end with him calling you scummy because you're not satisfied with his awful, awful answers. Anytime Percy was questioning him it shouldn't have been terribly hard to see that he wasn't getting anything other than typical Emp.

This feels like a defeatist and short-sighted approach. After all, why not gauge what sorts of answers he gives when he's scum as compared to when he's town? I suspect there will be some nuanced differences.

I'm concerned with the fact that you're not trying. That to me indicates that you really don't care about his alignment (which isn't terribly different from what you've stated before). It's been my experience that town tend to care far more about these things than scum do.

(For what it's worth, I think I've gotten useful answers from him, even if they are difficult answers.)

[dejkha]

This feels like a defeatist and short-sighted approach. After all, why not gauge what sorts of answers he gives when he's scum as compared to when he's town? I suspect there will be some nuanced differences.

They're all the same to me: stupid answers. Like he purposely always treats the game purely like a joke.

(For what it's worth, I think I've gotten useful answers from him, even if they are difficult answers.)

I'm sorry you think so...

[hewitt]

You were third on the Mixologist wagon yesterday, stuck with it when questioned about it, refused to give reasons for it when directly asked, then the next day he's not even on your top 3 list of most likely to be scum, without much mention of why, other than "I think I was probably wrong and the opposing bandwagon was right". The opposing bandwagon referred to seems to be the AceMarksman wagon, which was in fact a townie lynch. That whole bit is incredibly bizarre to me. Why the change of heart?

My whole D2 gameplay sucked ass. I wouldn't even trust myself if I went and read myself in ISO that day so I'm just trying to start fresh this day and try to do better.

Thinking about it - this makes me feel a bit better about Khamisa.

Doesn't make me feel a bit better about Khamisa at all. I never put any clever rouses past scum possibilities. That would be very clever for her to do that if she were scum and slightly less clever of you to reinforce that if you are her partner. I'm not going to be forgetting this exchange that's for sure.

I agree that Khamisa is reading town. When she made this comment:

Hm you as well eh? Well one thing is for sure, if Khamisa is part of a scumteam at least one of you is her partner.

Khamisa - post 148 - - he corrected my own mistake on the set up and expressed a good knowledge of the set up. I think in light of this, that he is planting that, and you, Thesp, are hopping on it because he could be your buddy.

In respect to my endgame hypothesis - - could Percy's place be exchanged with Khamisa, I wonder?

Mafiascum - Khamisa, Thesp, Ash
Wolves - Dej, Mix(Sotty)

I think you've quite literally (or at least almost) hit the nail on the head. I believe that Thesp/Percy are interchangeable as well as Sotty/Empking. With both I believe that Thesp and Empking are the more likely to be part of their respective scumteam. The wolves are more of a threat in my opinion right now (obviously). So I'm very happy with my vote for dejkha (again).

I think Percy is likely to be Ash's partner yes.

Hm sooooo then you're voting for him right? Cause you sound pretty sure of that.

Umm. Yes I am voting for him and have been since my first serious post in this game. You even commented on my case of Percy yourself here and here. This comment is very weird.

Mental lapse. I thought you were voting for someone else...for some reason...?

I don't even think dejkha should be lynched at this point just for this comment right here...

I would, but I'm trying to get past how retarded you are. Guess it's a family thing. Trust me, that's much more distracting. Don't get me wrong though, it hasn't completely gotten you yet because you're still able to form coherent sentences, granted I've never actually seen a retards writing ability but I can't imagine it's very good.

Mod: I'm going to ask for a modkill on dejkha

So inappropriate. I can't even play this game anymore until dejkha is gone. I'm done, this game is over for me until he's out of here.

Rules

• 1.
  This is a game. Have fun. Don't let things get personal.

This game has just gotten way too personal for me.

I'm done. I'm out. I'm gone until dejkha has been removed from this game.

[dejkha]

Lulz, this is awesome.

You heard the man, Thad. Off with my head.

[ThAdmiral]

Dejkha that was not awesome, it was completely immature. I am especially disappointed since I asked you not to continue on like that and you did.

Dejkha has been modkilled.

He was a

werewolf

.

It is now night 3.

[ThAdmiral]

You wake up to find Percy lying with his back against a tree, his entrails having been torn out.

Ew.

He was a

Townie

.

Day 4 has begun.

With 6 alive it is 4 to lynch.

[AA23]

Vote: Sotty7

with additional suspicion of being "werewolf"

For Mix's questionable and scummy actions
For parallel investigations to a now known wolf (Mix)
And for an ex-wolf's emotional response to accusations on his potential partner (and himself).

Hopefull this will clear up nightkills.

[Thesp]

Vote: Sotty7 with additional suspicion of being "werewolf"
For Mix's questionable and scummy actions
For parallel investigations to a now known wolf (Mix)
And for an ex-wolf's emotional response to accusations on his potential partner (and himself).

Hopefull this will clear up nightkills.

You know my thoughts on this.

Vote: Sotty7

.

[Empking]

Vote; AA

Those large posts between AA & Dej look like bussing now we know Dej was a wolf.

[Thesp]

Vote; AA

Those large posts between AA & Dej look like bussing now we know Dej was a wolf.

This may be the most absurd thing I've seen in the thread so far.

Really? That looks like

bussing

? dejkha was practically begging for a modkill there, which would be silly if a deliberately employed tactic - the entire exchange looks incredibly genuine to me.