Mini 810: Infection! Mini - Game over!

[Kelly Chen]

/confirm

[Kelly Chen]

my gut is telling me to

vote: Kid Know Nothing

[Kelly Chen]

charter what does your comment mean?

[Kelly Chen]

Trying to get my head around this discussion.

I don't think I agree with this, for example:

As already has been pointed out, claiming scientist (wether real or fake) will either lead to being infected and/or killed by the guard (if there is).

I think a scientist shouldn't give themselves the vaccine until they've been outed by lynch pressure. But they don't use it right away, they flip a coin each night or something. If the infected attack the claimed scientist on the night he gives himself the vaccine, then the infected die. Too risky surely?

I'm not sure the infected will be too insistent on targeting claimed scientists anyway. They are basically doctors (or blockers) who can't repeat target. They are not confirmable at all, if I'm not mistaken.

So I'm not sure how much thought scientists warrant

[Kelly Chen]

I might just be rusty... I'm not sure how to turn this around and get some more activity. I don't really want to pressure people not participating in a strategy discussion that I doubt is even that important.

Raise your hand if you're reading the game but are at a loss for what to say

/raise

[Kelly Chen]

I might just be rusty... I'm not sure how to turn this around and get some more activity. I don't really want to pressure people not participating in a strategy discussion that I doubt is even that important.

Raise your hand if you're reading the game but are at a loss for what to say

/raise

kelly chen, werent you a famous game theorist in your previous time here?

Maybe, but my range is limited. I usually didn't consider cult setups

I signed up for this game partly because I won't feel as bad if I fall on my face

[Kelly Chen]

I don't see how NL will help? If we don't fight about who to lynch then I don't see how we (incl power roles) will get any info at all?

[Kelly Chen]

Prod received

Going to reread from scratch right now.

[Kelly Chen]

Ok, I went through all this. I'll keep it brief for now because I'm tired.

unvote

Battle Mage: I don't have a feel for his alignment but I think his posts have been helpful (directly or indirectly). And I agree with some of his recent opinions on other players. A bit concerned about his NL vote and the post where he explained it.

Mokina: Has anyone played with her before? Is she playing normally? I'm sorry to say that the vibes I've gotten from her are not too good.

I have some suspicions of Shotty and fallen.

I was thinking I liked Rally, but on rereading a couple of things bothered me.

I can't come to much conclusion on charter, malt, pop.

I have a positive feeling about veerus.

I can't see from Paper's posts why he'd be scum. Normally I would take his apparent flaking as a small scumtell, but he's just a Goon if I remember correctly, so I don't guess what happened.

I was liking Kid but I can't remember why.

I'm going to have to flesh this out a bit later.

[Kelly Chen]

forgot to

vote Mokina

Agree with pop on fallen though.

[Kelly Chen]

Yeah, about not posting... I have decided to now post every single day, starting with at least one more post today. I think that's the only way I can stop dreading checking in to see what I've missed.

So if I don't post every day, lynch me, TIA.

See you later this evening.

[Kelly Chen]

Ok, Shotty asked a few questions, including about Mokina. Let me whip through that for now.

My overall feeling from my read was that despite posting a lot, she mostly talks strategy. When I ignore all that and just look at actions that might find scum, I don't like it. I don't know how I'd characterize it overall, and that's why I asked for any thoughts on this point.

I haven't done a lot either, I'm a hypocrite, yes I know.

Post 14
charter (I am pretty sure it was) said his suspects were Kid and Shotty. Shotty asks why, he's more suspicious of lurkers (than himself, ahaha), fine. Mokina agrees that she wants reasons and defends Shotty in a way that strikes me as unnatural. She says

QFT. I'd like to hear why. Shotty at least is willing to think aloud and plan the best course of action - at this stage, that's all the protown you can hope for.

I kind of understand this, but I can't quite get past the fact that she's not just asking for rationale, she's apparently denying that there's anything that could be scummy about him. Or else that you shouldn't vote for people who are talking? I guess that would be more charitable

then this:

There are definitely some active lurkers out there that seem content to have the town go blind into this, and they are making me worried.

It could just be me but this seems like a really unnatural way to say this.

post 15

...for lurking.

Thanks for pointing it out. To tell the truth, we're way past the random voting stage and I don't see nearly enough analysis. Scumvibes from the lurkers - and Battle Mage in particular should speak up.

Unvote

,

Vote: Battle Mage

"Thanks for pointing it out"? More weird buddying here or what?

I haven't been clear on whether this vote was really warranted (relative to other players), or if it just aimed to add pressure, which would be odd since there seems to be particular beef with BM here.

16

Good call.

17

(fallen angel knows what's up - read his post)

><

Dislike the FOS on Veerus in post 18, and the reiteration in 20

Is a policy of no-lynching if we cut it close to the deadline really a decent back-up plan? I am somewhat concerned about this proposition - from my understanding, it's general agreement that this would improve the chances of the scum and that we should play the day game as much as possible. The case against Battle Mage is primarily due to his lurk tendency, but he was also a supporter of your proposed policy ... which is still looking like an antitown push, if not outright scummy.

I would suggest that guards avoid using their nightkill at all, until we at least have some day suspicions to go on. Having one or two uninformed, infection-prone security duke it out with two or three informed scum has bad odds written all over it. Even if the guards don't die fast, we'd be handing the infected a victory - the security guards have the special antitown power of killing otherwise NK-immune test subjects in a heartbeat. By extension, this plan's looking more and more like a scumtell.

Did Mokina really believe this? To me it looks like she's keeping the door open to a veerus vote, others willing.

21: explains the BM vote, I guess. "I voted for you because you were a lurker who I know can make serious posts. I could just as easily have voted for Kid Know Nothing, but feh."

I'm not sure this is consistent with post 15. To be fair, maybe it isn't supposed to be.

post 22

So you were unwilling to apply pressure to me because of... "feh?"

If you are going after one player, why not go after someone else who has done the same thing as well?

Good point! At the time of the vote, I had no preference between the missing people, but now I do.

Unvote, Vote: Kid Know Nothing

At least Battle Mage is doing some legit posting now.

I almost thought Kid Know Nothing had some kind of limited access, but this looks like a clear-cut case of active lurking. I mean, Kid doesn't say a word for pages and pages. As soon as a suspicion post mentions him by name, however, he manages a knee-jerk reply in less than an hour's time. If this isn't scummy, it's antitown.

I don't want to think too hard about how much I agree or disagree with this vote for these reasons. But it bothers me that Mokina seems to want to be very clear about why she votes. She even explains that if it's not scummy, it at least hurts the town. To my mind scum might like to do this because it prevents difficult questions (and possibly votes) if you don't leave room for any.

For instance, if I just vote someone without saying anything, or I say something that isn't the whole story or could be misconstrued, there's a greater risk that someone won't buy it, may vote me, may drill me on it, may reject my answers as being contrived only now that I've been called on it. I think that especially scum want to avoid this situation because it means more attention if nothing else.

In the next post she unvotes Kid for his "acceptable justification" of not being interested in theory. I guess she can trust him on that. That's odd isn't it? That vote lasted under a day.

The only other thing I want to say is that I have trouble seeing Mokina's stance that BM's NL vote was "opportunistic, latching on to an ultimately antitown proposal, then discarding it when it became clear it wasn't going to fly." I have trouble seeing that vote as anything but thoughtless or silly. Three people had already shot the idea down. I can't see him being so clever as to understand that NL is antitown yet so dense as to think it could get anywhere.

The end. Back tomorrow.

[Kelly Chen]

Why did you quote BM there?

If you state your reasoning comprehensively there may be more discussion, but it will probably be on more favorable terms than if you leave things open to (mis)interpretation. To be less abstract, if I imagine you voting for Kid with less of the explanations, I think there's a good chance someone would have tried to call you on whether that vote was sensible or not. On its face it would look like you voted somebody for showing up and asking a reasonable question.

What I'm saying is that you seemed eager to prevent any such misunderstanding, or further questioning. Even after you write out your reasoning you finish with "If this isn't scummy, it's antitown." A good example of what I'm saying: There's now no point in me asking you whether you really think Kid's behavior is scummy, because you've already suggested that you may not think that, and it doesn't matter to your vote anyway. I wonder why you pointed that out?

[Kelly Chen]

Really, why isnt fallen angel not even near to be lynched yet?

I want everyones opinions on this guy.

Kaythxbay.

Reading him again I don't get as scummy of an impression as I remembered. Read in isolation I really didn't like the post where he voted for Paper. But I think I was mixing up Paper's plan and veerus'. Paper's plan really is pretty wild. Still would have felt better without that vote.

I didn't like, but on reflection maybe just don't understand why he thought it seemed like Kid was soft-claiming scum. To me that wasn't a likely conclusion from what Kid said, if any time was spent thinking it over. Potentially this is tossing out a small suspicion to see if it sticks, if anyone else thinks it has some merit.

Similarly the comment "Still, BM's seeming knowledge of alignment is a bit strange too" seems awkward... At worst it could be an attempt to check whether others think the same and think it's worth pursuing.

Rereading what you said about him a few pages ago it seems you said similar things. Easy lynch on Paper. I don't think I see what you do about an apology to BM.

[Kelly Chen]

Is that a reason to vote someone? Getting from "ridiculous plan that makes town lose" to "scum" doesn't go without saying


veerus' lack of suspicions isn't helpful, anyway. Here too though I haven't seen scumminess in his proposal or how he's discussed it. Maybe (whatever his alignment) he is afraid to make his own plan look silly by contributing to not needing it.

[Kelly Chen]

ugh

FA's defense of his vote never even bothers to say that he thought PP was scummy. All he argues is that the plan would help scum, and that was good enough for him.

You're supposed to vote for people you think are scum, not people you think you might have a case against

[Kelly Chen]

I'm sort of inbetween on whether FA or Veerus should be lynched. I'm sort of leaning towards FA for changing his opinoins twice in quick succession (#85, 91, 99) but I also agree with Kelly's fact that veerus hasn't done much of anything but talk about NL isn't helping his case either.

Have you narrowed it down to those two? If so is it because of the reasons you gave here?

Can you clarify what the change of opinion is from 85 to 91 to 99.

tia.

[Kelly Chen]

I'd have to say I actually don't have a very good feeling about PP/Kise.

[Kelly Chen]

ugh

FA's defense of his vote never even bothers to say that he thought PP was scummy. All he argues is that the plan would help scum, and that was good enough for him.

You're supposed to vote for people you think are scum, not people you think you might have a case against

This is a much better reason to vote someone, rather than assuming someone is just a misguided townie.

There is no dichotomy there. The claim is really that fallen did both of those.

[Kelly Chen]

also, BM needs to post again.

[Kelly Chen]

ugh

FA's defense of his vote never even bothers to say that he thought PP was scummy. All he argues is that the plan would help scum, and that was good enough for him.

You're supposed to vote for people you think are scum, not people you think you might have a case against

This is a much better reason to vote someone, rather than assuming someone is just a misguided townie.

There is no dichotomy there. The claim is really that fallen did both of those.

Can you elaborate on this a little bit, I want to make sure I'm reading it right.

I'm saying that the reason you gave would be a much better reason for voting FA, rather than assuming that he was attacking someone who was a "misguided townie."

Actually, could you expand on that? That is basically what you just said, and I'm having trouble understanding it.

You're saying that the reason I gave would be a better reason (for fallen to vote), but your "than" compares it to something that isn't a reason at all, and isn't even done by fallen (the "assuming").

Are you asking me to compare something fallen did or supposedly did, to something someone else did?

[Kelly Chen]

Ok, I thought you were disagreeing with me, but actually you were criticizing pop.

It seems to me that it doesn't matter whether PP definitely seemed like a misguided townie, so much as it matters whether he definitely seemed scummy. No matter how purely the plan helps scum, we can consider whether scum would actually make that proposal.

If the plan purely helps scum, but the scum don't realize how obvious it is and propose it anyway, then we have dumb scum. But where's the argument that we have dumb scum and not dumb town.

I feel pop should be discussing this rather than me, but I don't know what else to talk about atm.

[Kelly Chen]

Wow nothing has happened.

veerus, is Rally the lynch?

Shotty, is veerus the lynch?

Mokina, do you think anybody is scummy? Since you unvoted Kid I don't see any concrete suspicions except once of BM; do you think he's scummy or do you just want him to start posting again? I'm looking at your last post of course.

I'd fos malthusis if I thought it would help.

That is all.

[Kelly Chen]

It's going to storm here I think, but a couple of quick posts.

Mokina, do you think anybody is scummy? Since you unvoted Kid I don't see any concrete suspicions except once of BM; do you think he's scummy or do you just want him to start posting again? I'm looking at your last post of course.

What do you think of BM, Kelly? Lurkish town or lurkish scum?

I liked BM, but I'm starting to be able to see him as scum who got worn out pretty quickly playing good townie. This disappoints me for a reason you can probably guess.

Alright so now here's your opinion on BM:

I don't want to lynch lazy townies ... and on the other side of the coin, I don't want to pass up on scum just because there aren't any quotes. BM's rare, single-sentence posts bother me, but in the end they're not an actual alignment tell. All very well to cite meta and say that "BM-scum lurks hardcore," but without any regular posts to go on, I can neither confirm my suspicions nor lay them to rest.

So yes, I'd love to see him posting again.

Alright, so pretty meh, but still, is anybody

else

in this game scummy to you?

I find it bizarre that I ask you if anybody is scummy here, and you not only don't answer, you ask me if I think BM is being scummy.

Is there something about your playstyle that someone could fill me in on?

[Kelly Chen]

I'd have to say I actually don't have a very good feeling about PP/Kise.

why?

I don't think I can answer this very well. Just from their posts I don't have any feeling that they're more likely town than scum. That makes me more reluctant to focus on fallen.

Really if anything, looking over Paper's entire oeuvre, my gut wants to say "incompetent flaking newb scum" more than "incompetent flaking newb town."

I give fallen no credit for that though, because it doesn't look like he considered anything other than Paper's last post, which on its own does not reek in my opinion.

I wonder about this comment:

I agree, where is the rest of the town? =P

Trying as hard as possible not to get lynched. This game is strange in that people want to be NKed.

I wonder what line of thought led to this. Maybe I just haven't thought about this setup hard enough. I think just Shotty and Mokina responded to this comment but not very directly.

[Kelly Chen]

Deadline: July 21

Okay, time to sort this mess.

Chen and BM, why are you voting Mokina? Who is your second suspect?

I recommend reading my last couple of posts

Despite posting, she doesn't seem to do anything that would help find scum. She talks strategy, refrains from giving concrete opinions (like scum vs. town type of opinion), and is awfully interested in pressuring lurkers (but just to make them post, not because they're more likely to be scum).

I find it over the top, and can't believe no one else has commented on this.

But I will find time, this weekend probably, to read her past games. And Paper's too, if he has some.

My second suspect? Of those with votes I could see moving (with not much confidence unfortunately) to fallen or Kise. I'm not too interested in a veerus lynch.

I'd be willing to try malthusis. I'm not feeling as good about BM anymore either. I'm feeling more neutral about Shotty.

[Kelly Chen]

veerus, could you say a word about your apparent change of opinion about fallen being votable by you if we got closer to a deadline.

I guess you realize that your suspects being Rally and Shotty looks like OMGUS.

[Kelly Chen]

Not much to say.

I don't feel that hypocrisy is scummy. As an example, why shouldn't or wouldn't a protown scummy lurker attack another scummy lurker?

[Kelly Chen]

I did a small amount of reading other games this evening

Paper doesn't seem to have been as much of a newb as I thought. Reading his past work I'm inclined to take his proposal as less likely to be a newb scum error. But his lack of much posting seems different from his norm. I think he flaked on multiple games at once when he was replaced here. I'm thinking if I vote Kise it's going to have to be based on Kise's posts (which I'll have to reread).

veerus has played a lot, too. I didn't get very different vibes from him in the other games from what I get here. I think my only change in feeling is that his proposal can't be a simple error (e.g. based on a lack of experience). With his experience I can't see him defending the proposal if he didn't think it was reasonable. I'm not really sure what to make of that though.

This post probably isn't worded very clearly...

It seems that we only have 2-3 days to deadline. Since no one will comment on Mokina (let alone join me in voting for her) I'll figure out where to move my vote tomorrow.

[Kelly Chen]

shoot about replacements

Also, I lied, I need to work on cleaning my apartment. I will have to decide on my vote tomorrow.

If I had to decide right now, I would move to fallen. Off the top of my head I don't have anything at all on Kise. Not saying I don't have an issue with him, just that I don't remember.

Or you guys could consider this: Help me lynch Mokina and then we don't have to replace her.

[Kelly Chen]

I skimmed Kise again and I don't have a good read on him.

Kise probably can't get lynched at this point anyway.

unvote, vote: fallen angel

With apologies if you're town.

[Kelly Chen]

Would like to use this post also to say that Im very likely town and that now that we know fallen angel was scum, KNK is a pretty good start for hunting today.

Do you bus? (Doesn't seem very profitable in this game, but it's worth considering)

It hasn't been my feeling that scum would (indirectly) defend fallenscum like Kid did yesterday. Despite that his arguments seemed scummy on their face.

I was pretty certain that we had 2 scum at the outset tbh. Starting with 3 seems remarkably anti-town given the mechanic. To that end, i'm going to assume that everyone still alive was town yesterday. Effectively the game starts again, but this time, we only have 1 scumbag in play.

This will of course, become kinda WIFOMy once i've said it, but i think it's fairly obvious from the fact that Malthusis chose to suicide, that he felt he wasnt in the strongest position, from not being on the scum wagon and all.
It seems logical then, that he would have opted to infect the player he felt was in the strongest position-probably somebody who was very against his buddy. So, for today, i think we're looking at the main people pushing the Fallen Angel lynch. Certainly, if we had 2 scum to begin with, i dont see a scenario in which the final scumbag would be someone off-wagon.

If we started with 3 scum, and had 2 left last night, we can still probably rule out anyone who can be considered a weaker player than Malthusis. I'd say that includes Mokina, and possibly Kise too.

How are you judging who is a weaker player? I don't really think anybody would have been weaker than Malthusis.

Or you mean based on pressure received. Well, consider this hypothetical... It's unlikely that Kise was partners with fallen. (Mostly possible if fallen thought Paper really sucked so much that he should be bussed.) So I'm not sure that Kise would receive much pressure today... Except for the possibility that Kise got converted. Kise doesn't seem like an obvious doc choice. But, on what basis could we decide that Kise is recruited scum? Not much, he basically has to hang himself from scratch without Paper's help.

WIFOM makes a real mess of guessing... Being on a wagon doesn't mean that much as the doc(s) can't save

all

those people

I don't think it's good to speculate about who were the likely targets for vaccinations last night as if we specualte about that we are also speculating which people are less likely to be receiving vaccinations in the future since a scientist can only vaccinate any given person once.

This is bad for multiple reasons, if someone was previously vaccinated, it makes a more appealing target for future infection as they are less likely to be vaccinated during the night of infection and also once infected are less likely to be blocked from infecting another when they need to.

vote: The Replacement

weak FOS: Battle Mage, poptajo

I plan to look at who I think was probably not partners with fallen yesterday, if it's three scum.

[Kelly Chen]

Kise replaced Paper.

[Kelly Chen]

How are you judging who is a weaker player? I don't really think anybody would have been weaker than Malthusis.

that seems rather a convenient position for you to take.

Please can you also explain your vote on The Replacement? Seems he has lived upto his name so far. And i really, really don't see Mokina as scum, or him as an obvious infection choice, having not said anything.

Replacement is Mokina and amazingly (amusingly?) even posted like her.

What do you mean you really, really don't see Mokina as scum? You spent half of yesterday with your vote on her.

But this also caught my eye:

I'm sort of inbetween on whether FA or Veerus should be lynched. I'm sort of leaning towards FA for changing his opinoins twice in quick succession (#85, 91, 99) but I also agree with Kelly's fact that veerus hasn't done much of anything but talk about NL isn't helping his case either.

Respect for Kelly Chen, after she inadvertantly tries to save his scumbuddy?

Can you clarify what you mean by that? He seemed to take me as attacking veerus but I really didn't. Otherwise I don't understand.

[Kelly Chen]

@BM
I am pretty sure that either two or three scum could be balanced depending on what roles we have.

I'm aware that you feel there were only two scum. But when you wrote that you "really, really don't see Mokina as scum" you could have been talking about her play, so I asked.

I'm surprised that setup speculation leads you to not suspect her at all now.

I agree that Replacement would be a odd recruitment choice, though.

[Kelly Chen]

If you vaccinate an infected player, you prevent them from infecting that night.

Do you really think that one post by Chen made Malthisus feel like infecting her BM?

She is an experienced player and not as likely to be protected as Poptaj.
Truthfully, she'd be my pick for infection if i was scum. Or maybe Charter.

Less likely, maybe, but I was thinking there was a decent chance I get protected... If it's so obvious that pop is the one to protect, then scum shouldn't want to touch him. Protect somebody else. That increases the odds that scum fail to cult, and if they have the balls to cult pop anyway, what are you really out? Especially considering you can only protect somebody once in this game.

[Kelly Chen]

I'm thinking there were three scum, because otherwise a D1 scum lynch and N1 culting failure is already a town win.

Reading veerus

I agree with tajo on this one. FA's vote on PP is opportunistic and a feeble attempt at making a mountain out of a mole hill and will vote him if we get closer to the deadline.

However..

unvote; vote: rally vincent

Scummy in hindsight. Especially since later it didn't seem that he did think fallen was all that scummy for this.

It also seems like he tried to add steam to the Kise wagon over the fallen wagon (or his own wagon), for little stated reason:

In addition to these two (especially Rally as Shotty's been relatively active in the other discussions) my other suspect is Kise. I'm having a hard time putting my finger on it exactly but his posts strike me as very scummy and very unlike how PP was (outside of his crazy idea).

very unlike how PP was...?

But if I have a look here on page 15.

It was 3 veerus (including malthusis, who put him in the lead), 2 Mokina, 2 fallen, 2 Kise (including fallen), 1 Rally.

Kise goes to 3 with Kid's vote (he wasn't voting)
veerus down to 2 and fallen up to 3 with Rally moving from veerus to fallen.
Shotty asks Rally why Kise. Shotty's voting veerus... if anything seems like seeking a reason to move to Kise... on the other hand I'm pretty sure we didn't have four scum so nevermind.
veerus moves from Rally to fallen, so that's 4 fallen. That seems odd if veerus is scum. It looks like veerus had a choice, and he didn't choose what you would expect based on his second-to-last post. On the other hand, pop had stated by now that fallen was the only realistic lynch choice. So if veerus is scum the question is more like, why did he post at all, he could've just lurked through the deadline.
I vote fallen -> 5 votes
Kid votes fallen -> 6 votes
Shotty hammers.

[Kelly Chen]

Upon going over Shotty's posts today, I got a bad feeling that he might be an infected (his play yesterday leads me to believe he was infected last night)

Even just hypothetically, how could someone's play yesterday suggest that?


@BM can you say anything concrete about how unbalanced three scum would be? I've noted how swingy two scum would be.

Ok, serious times now. The way i see it, our best chance to win is to nail scum today. If we have 1 scum, we can potentially win it. If we have 2 scum, the odds are still favouring scum to win (which imo, makes the setup greatly unbalanced).

If we have 1 scum

and a couple of effective test subjects

we could already have it in the bag. I don't think that's a likely scenario, just that it depends.

It seems you cleared veerus of being original scum just because he didn't show conviction in his fallen vote. But given his earlier posts, he didn't have room to, it wouldn't have made sense.

I understand the philosophy behind finding the recruited scum over a (merely possible) original scum, but there has to be something to go on. If it's easier to find an original scum then let's get him I say.


Thinking about moving my vote but I still have to read Mokina's other games.

[Kelly Chen]

I just reread Rally and charter. I'll keep my Rally thoughts to myself for the moment, but I was surprised to feel that there is not much keeping charter from being

original

scum. Given his D1 suspicions I now tend to think he would've been a mediocre recruitment choice.

[Kelly Chen]

I just reread Rally and charter. I'll keep my Rally thoughts to myself for the moment, but I was surprised to feel that there is not much keeping charter from being

original

scum. Given his D1 suspicions I now tend to think he would've been a mediocre recruitment choice.

mediocre, as opposed to?

as opposed to clever.

In case you missed it, we aren't hunting "original" scum, on the grounds that we dont know they exist, and frankly, we have far less to go on. Between you, you guys have already named more suspects to be scum on Day 1, than we have as being infected scum, so why are you sending us down the difficult, and potentially pointless, route?

Has nothing to do with quantity of suspects. If we find scum, we lynch scum. That's what I'm saying.

I strongly suggest you give us feedback on your RV read.

No. Rally asked charter and possibly you. It's not useful for me to give answers for you.

[Kelly Chen]

Upon going over Shotty's posts today, I got a bad feeling that he might be an infected (his play yesterday leads me to believe he was infected last night)

Even just hypothetically, how could someone's play yesterday suggest that?

@BM can you say anything concrete about how unbalanced three scum would be? I've noted how swingy two scum would be.

I'm leaning more 50-50 now between 3 and 2 scum starting. But, given the possibility of there only being 2, and the fact that we have absolutely no consensus on who could have been scum on Day 1, its pretty ridiculous to try hunting that original scumbag now. If we miss today, but get close, presumably, that scumbag will suicide and we're back to square one again.

So you want us to voluntarily start at square one.

I don't care about consensus right now. Most people aren't even posting. I am not even sure what I think myself at the moment. If we give it some time we might get some consensus (or change tracks completely)

Ok, serious times now. The way i see it, our best chance to win is to nail scum today. If we have 1 scum, we can potentially win it. If we have 2 scum, the odds are still favouring scum to win (which imo, makes the setup greatly unbalanced).

If we have 1 scum

and a couple of effective test subjects

we could already have it in the bag. I don't think that's a likely scenario, just that it depends.

It seems you cleared veerus of being original scum just because he didn't show conviction in his fallen vote. But given his earlier posts, he didn't have room to, it wouldn't have made sense.

Then why would he bother voting for Fallen?

That I don't know, but the fact that he did hardly rules out that he's scum.

I understand the philosophy behind finding the recruited scum over a (merely possible) original scum, but there has to be something to go on. If it's easier to find an original scum then let's get him I say.

I think if you read the comments of people today, you'll see why it is NOT easier to find original scum. Frankly, it's a complete piss-in-the-dark.

No, sorry, I don't see why it would be harder to find original scum, assuming there is one.

Thinking about moving my vote but I still have to read Mokina's other games.

Do you think Poptaj infectee is possible? Would you consider lynching him today?

I think it is possible (though it would've been a poor recruitment). I'll lynch scum if I see scum.

[Kelly Chen]

I haven't got time to say much tonight. I'll just respond to BM as usual.

I just reread Rally and charter. I'll keep my Rally thoughts to myself for the moment, but I was surprised to feel that there is not much keeping charter from being

original

scum. Given his D1 suspicions I now tend to think he would've been a mediocre recruitment choice.

mediocre, as opposed to?

as opposed to clever.

In case you missed it, we aren't hunting "original" scum, on the grounds that we dont know they exist, and frankly, we have far less to go on. Between you, you guys have already named more suspects to be scum on Day 1, than we have as being infected scum, so why are you sending us down the difficult, and potentially pointless, route?

Has nothing to do with quantity of suspects. If we find scum, we lynch scum. That's what I'm saying.

that's weak.

Not weaker than worrying about quantity of suspects.

I strongly suggest you give us feedback on your RV read.

No. Rally asked charter and possibly you. It's not useful for me to give answers for you.

I dont understand.

Giving my thoughts on my RV read would risk answering Rally's question when it wasn't directed at me.

[Kelly Chen]

Yeh id like to see the town get some sort of direction. And yes, i want us to start at square 1, because it means we have far less crap to wade through.

Doesn't make any sense. Without crap to wade through we can't find scum. What's wrong with the crap we have.

Ok, serious times now. The way i see it, our best chance to win is to nail scum today. If we have 1 scum, we can potentially win it. If we have 2 scum, the odds are still favouring scum to win (which imo, makes the setup greatly unbalanced).

If we have 1 scum

and a couple of effective test subjects

we could already have it in the bag. I don't think that's a likely scenario, just that it depends.

It seems you cleared veerus of being original scum just because he didn't show conviction in his fallen vote. But given his earlier posts, he didn't have room to, it wouldn't have made sense.

Then why would he bother voting for Fallen?

That I don't know, but the fact that he did hardly rules out that he's scum.

Imo, it does, because it makes no sense. You're stretching.

You're the one jumping to a conclusion.

I understand the philosophy behind finding the recruited scum over a (merely possible) original scum, but there has to be something to go on. If it's easier to find an original scum then let's get him I say.

I think if you read the comments of people today, you'll see why it is NOT easier to find original scum. Frankly, it's a complete piss-in-the-dark.

No, sorry, I don't see why it would be harder to find original scum, assuming there is one.

What was the wagon on me about? I thought it was because i was under suspicion of being original scum.

Ok?

Thinking about moving my vote but I still have to read Mokina's other games.

Do you think Poptaj infectee is possible? Would you consider lynching him today?

I think it is possible (though it would've been a poor recruitment). I'll lynch scum if I see scum.

That's the second time you've said that. Who are you trying to kid?

What I mean is that I'll lynch someone only if I think they are scum, not because I think they're the most likely recruitment choice or whatever.

Do you think Rally was recruited? Is that likely?

[Kelly Chen]

Then why would he bother voting for Fallen?

That I don't know, but the fact that he did hardly rules out that he's scum.

Imo, it does, because it makes no sense. You're stretching.

You're the one jumping to a conclusion.

I'm analysing someone. Geez...are you even following this convo? You are the one who wanted to scumhunt based on yesterday! -.-

What are you talking about? I'm not criticizing you for analyzing yesterday, I'm criticizing you for ruling veerus out as scum, at least for your original reasoning.

Rally being recruited is possible. Saying you won't lynch someone who is infected is dumb.

I agree, let me know if someone says that.

Is the fact that Rally might have been recruited the basis for saying you might be up for lynching him? Because that would mean there was something suspicious about his play today, right? Or not?

[Kelly Chen]

I think there are two scum left partly because the game could end ridiculously quickly if there were only two original scum.

Kelly- Look at how today has progressed. Why would i NOT find RV scummy?

Really, RV is so scummy today that you can brush this off with a rhetorical question? I think you're after him mostly for OMGUS.


I'm not doing a good job making time for this game. I hope I have time this weekend.

unvote

[Kelly Chen]

Replacement, charter, veerus. Any would be an original scum, I think.

I will click on these and post about them later today:

Mokina games as town:
Foggy Londontown
Newbie 804
Open 74

Mokina game as scum:
Facedown and Thirsty

[Kelly Chen]

charter are you specifically asking why you or veerus could be

original

scum?

In that case it's an easy question, I think you and especially veerus would have been poor recruitment choices. You because your D1 suspicions appear to have sucked.

There are good points against veerus being scum at all, and I don't have anything conclusive on you either.


Atm I want to get this Mokina read out of the way and get to bed.

[Kelly Chen]

Upon going over Shotty's posts today, I got a bad feeling that he might be an infected (his play yesterday leads me to believe he was infected last night). He's posted a few times today, but largely said nothing of much importance.

Also, this post seems like he panicked that malthusis's infection didn't go through

Guard got infected? Guard didn't want to shoot someone when they weren't sure of alignment? How does the phrasing of the mod's post imply no security guard? It's pretty clear that Malthisus died of infection according to the death post, I'm pretty sure somewhere in D1 we talked about the guard not randomly shooting people if he wasn't sure.

This post is probably a little bit of a stretch, but his play today has been just trying to scrape by.

At the beginning of your post you say you think it likely he was infected last night based upon his day one play. Then you go on to say that today that it looks like he was concerned with whether or not Malthusis' infetion was successful, which means he had to have begun the game as an infected for that to be the case. It can't be both.

Yeah, I just checked the infected role PM and apparently they can talk all the time, so if malthusis's infection went through, he'd know if he was infected. I thought it worked like most cults where they can't talk with the new recruit until the next night, so my theory isn't true (though Shotty is still not posting at all today).

BS response, why didn't Replacement or Shotty remark on this?

In that post charter replies to both Replacement and Shotty discussing the same logical problem, but never even acknowledges the problem. He just says the above, and asks Shotty how he was role-fishing. How is that possible?

unvote, vote: charter

[Kelly Chen]

Ok.

Two of the four games I picked are not over yet. Mokina is revealed town though, and her posts... Same as here. Non-committal, obsessed with inactive players without thinking they're scummy, smug discussion of general strategy.

In the two that are over, she was scum in one. But her posts were more pleasant to read in both.

Not very conclusive.

It doesn't look like any of you played with her. So I still don't understand why nobody thought she was scummy D1.

[Kelly Chen]

I reskimmed a few people and I am going to completely flip-flop.

unvote, vote: Shotty

Much better bet I think.

Here's the breakdown I came up with:
Maybe original: charter, mokina/rplcmt, shotty, veerus, kise?
Maybe recruited: charter, pop, rally, shotty
Believe to be neither atm: me, bm, kid

[Kelly Chen]

You don't agree? Really? I'll say a word or two but then please tell me which ones you don't or didn't agree with.

@Shotty:
I buy the guard claim. At least to the point that I wouldn't worry about it today. I'll take another look if he "forgets" to kill me tonight.

But if BM is scum, didn't he claim kind of early considering the likelihood of a counterclaim? It's not a huge, or at least immediate, advantage for scum to draw out the guard, if we have a doc.

Yes, in my mind, Kid is pretty close to cleared. I think I may have discussed him a bit before. I felt the way he went at it with poptajo regarding FA and PP was superficially rather scummy, but, essentially defending FA like that wouldn't be something scum would want to do. It was awkward and pointless as far as I can see.

I definitely don't see someone recruiting him. Is that controversial?

charter and Shotty I have as possible to be either type. I could see either as good enough bets to be recruited (even if I wouldn't), and I see little reason why they couldn't be original scum.

As far as why Shotty and not charter... charter's not really that scummy. Sometimes I think there's something unnatural about his posts, but I mainly can't read him.

I'm content (more than I would've thought) with charter's response to my vote... It seems to me that if charterscum really had the balls to intentionally tapdance around a charge made by two people, then he probably would be prepared to stick to his story when I brought it up later, however he might be able to do that... I have trouble seeing that scenario...

Shotty deserves his own post... that's going to have to wait a day I think. I'm not sure how good the post will be; atm I just know I get a bad vibe from his posts that's more tangible than with charter's.

Mokina: Could be original scum. I don't think anybody disputes that much. Recruited scum is unlikely because her role was vacant when night fell. Don't think that's controversial.

Veerus: I'm leaving the door open. Original Veerus scum might not be the most sensible thing. But this breakdown was just about what's possible.

Kise: I almost have Kise as cleared, but there's a small possibility that fallen wanted to bus Paper. It doesn't seem like a good plan given this game's mechanic though. I don't think it's likely that Kise was recruited, because even if scum thought that Kise looked town due to being attacked by fallen, Kise was still picking up some suspicion due to his own posts.

poptajo: Not original scum, as he points out, because his play would be pretty insane I think, once I consider the mechanic. But in order to not be a candidate as recruited scum, we have to feel that the scum would believe that the doctor would regard pop as the top priority to protect. I'm not at all sure that is true, even if scum and doctor are all paying attention. I don't think it's obvious that that is the goal of the doctor, considering you can only protect someone once.

Rally: Not original scum in my opinion. A piece of evidence is post 320 where his rundown of players has fallen and malthusis, and only them, as possible scum. His next most harsh words are pretty mild, it seems to me. He could be a recruited scum just because I think he looks pretty good, pretty likely to not get lynched. But I haven't felt he's been scummy at all really.

BM: Based on his posts, I dunno. At the end of yesterday I was starting to lean more scum due to the rumored lurking tell. But then he started posting again. Since he claimed guard I'm happy to not think about him.

[Kelly Chen]

So in a nutshell/TL;DR, Kelly, you're undecided about pretty much everyone?

How did you get that out of what you tl;dred?

Can you do better? charter has just one more person than me as neither, with most of his suspects as recruits. I don't understand what that can be based on. What makes Shotty, BM, or Kid impossible as original scum? (Surely what makes Kid unlikely as original scum also makes him unlikely as recruited scum...?)

Also, your post doesn't quite explain why Shotty in particular is scum.

It didn't try to and I wrote as much. I will point out where Shotty has struck me as scummy.

I do see that you list how unlikely it is that anyone else was recruited > Shotty, but is that honestly good enough?

Not sure what you mean. I prefer to place Shotty as original scum, because if anything he was scummier earlier than later. I'm not after anybody for being recruited scum. That's not a deliberate strategy (it sounds like a poor strategy), it's just a lack of D2 read on people.

[Kelly Chen]

My list would be
Maybe original: mokina/replacement
Maybe recruited: rally, shotty, BM, Kid, Kelly
Believe to be neither: charter, tajo, veerus, kise

Some comments on this above.

I've gone on and on about why I think veerus is not original scum, if you think he could be, I'd like to hear something from you more than "I'm leaving the door open" because that translates to me as "I'll lynch him in a heartbeat if the opportunity presents itself" and I'd like for you to respond to my posts where I explain why I don't think veerus is original scum.

Ok, that will be my next post.

tajo I believe to be town because he clearly isn't original scum and I don't think scum would have tried to infect him last night.

Obviously I don't think "and I see little reason why they[charter/Shotty] couldn't be original scum" is a reason to think someone is scum since that applies to about everyone.

I disagree and it sounds like you do too, as we know two of the scum yesterday, as you say below.

BM is scummy as hell and lurks like no one's business (which I've seen him do multiple times as scum, never as town) and in this game lurking is extremely scummy. Also, it's possible he was a guard and was recruited last night, thus guard would be a safe thing to claim.

So your theory that BM knew guard was a safe thing to claim, is why you rule out BM as original scum but not as recruited scum?

I don't see why you've cleared KKN either.

I don't know what else to say about that. Tell me why you think he could only be recruited scum.

Basically, your list for original scum seems really really large since we know two of the scum yesterday. Tajo is also superobv town in my mind and BM and kid don't look town to me either.

Taj is probably town in my mind as well. I don't even disagree with you that BM and Kid don't "look" town.

[Kelly Chen]

Regarding veerus: Ok. veerus original scum is hard to believe, since that would mean malthusis showed up for a weekly post to to say that he's unsure which of his two pals should be lynched. Also he there uses my post to help attack veerus, when I hadn't really attacked him. It seems odd to perceive a distancing opportunity in that.

So, my reading was not too complete.

I still think Rally is probably town. His arguments seem genuine (and pretty decent) to me. Though I was relying on my own read of veerus, and reading these posts kind of sloppily.

It's impossible to believe that if you think someone is unlikely as original scum then that makes them unlikely to be recruited, because recruited scum have to come from town, so you can't rule someone out as recruited scum just because you rule them out as original scum. I think that people unlikely to be original scum make good recruitment choices.

Not necessarily. If someone was not likely to be original scum, but still kind of scummy, I don't think they are likely to be recruits. That is my basis for believing that Kise, Kid, and veerus are not recruits. Because scummy-looking people are not reliable, you don't know how well they'll avoid being lynched.

I don't agree that Kid wasn't scummy yesterday. The way he kept misconstruing pop's words in order to fight with him looked scummy. It's mostly (not totally) in hindsight that Kid's behavior doesn't seem like a good bet for scum.

Is it just your gut feeling that says Kid wasn't scummy yesterday?

[Kelly Chen]

Replacement vote is probably the best. I don't believe I can make a better case on Shotty. That post is today though.

Original scum: veerus or BM - I won't repeat myself. Both of them don't strike me as likely infection targets. Veerus got enough attention to be a risk for being infected; BM was likely to be called out for his lurking.

You can't be serious... veerus as a recruitment choice?

I don't think BM would be a good choice either since he stopped posting and people were metagaming how scummy that makes him. You couldn't expect he's going to START posting once he actually IS scum.

Shotty - His participation has declined noticable in comparision to Day 1 - meaning that on Day 2; I don't see that Shotty actually tries to hunt scum rather then debating about other's suspicions. On Day 1, Shotty voiced his own thoughts, trying to get things done. Nothing of this today. That makes him my primary suspect for getting infected.

Interesting

KKN - Hard to say due to his abscence (and now getting replaced). On Day 1 he was neither scummy nor town beyond doubt; discussing with Tajo over FA too long to be taken as original scum, so a good candidate.

Don't you think that works both ways? The overt defense-but-it-wasn't is basically "so scummy he can't be scum," you don't want to recruit a guy like that even if it's true.

[Kelly Chen]

oh oops, I misread what Rally was saying about BM and veerus.

[Kelly Chen]

specifically this part
"Veerus got enough attention to be a risk for being infected;"

At the risk of influencing a quicklynch, I would like to point out that if we entered night phase before replacements for either KKN or TR, it would be interesting to see if any infections go through. I am sold [again] on TR being original scum. Is anyone else willing to experiment by seeing if any NAs go through w/o replacements?

No. If I were the mod I would consider making a random move for the scum, to prevent this info from being revealed.

[Kelly Chen]

Ok, here is the pbpa. I don't know why I doubted this would be good.

posts
0 confirm
1 random
2 random comment
3 strategy
4 strategy, mod question
5 thanks to mod
6 strategy, buddying with Mokina and charter
7 vote BM for stupid strategy (but at least it wasn't as contrived-looking as FA's vote)
8 strategy (response to BM)
9 where are the lurkers
10 combo lurker/strategy post
11 to charter: why are you suspicious of me, I'm more suspicious of lurkers
12 strategy (response to pop interrogation)
13 strategy, also Mokina buddying: "I would also agree with Mokina that even suggesting no lynch is slightly suspicious."
14 to charter: why won't you tell me your reasons for suspecting me?
15 strategy
16 mod question
17 FOS veerus over NL strategy
18 in response to BM: "Another vote without explanation? I love it, moar accusations without reasons so I can't defend myself thanks!"
19 more of this
20 unvote BM lamely: his suspicions suck but at least he's posting like Mokina said
21 no time
22 defending veerus FOS, complaining about people suspecting him. Asks me for my suspicions on himself, Mokina, and FA.
23 no time, rereading
24 agrees with Rally and votes veerus. I believe this puts veerus in the lead at 2.
25 lurkers. Mod, has BM been prodded? actually this is funny, Shotty complains that the post requirement is once every three days. Shotty's previous and next posts are three days away.
26 responds to me that he thinks veerus is very possibly the lynch, he's leaning towards him or FA, but he needs to reread charter on Kise.
27 defends veerus vote, claims fallen as second choice.
28 asks Rally why he changed to FA instead of Kise. Says he will switch to avoid NL.
29 Final vote on FA.

That's Day 1. I don't see how any of you see this as very townish.

Here's the short summary: strategy, lurkers, buddying, why are you voting me, maybe I don't have to vote FA.

Here's Day 2:
30 strategy
31 strategy
32 strategy
33 strategy
34 nonsense
35 agree with Replacement about strategy; does Rally still suspect veerus over NL strategy?
36 Do you really think KC's one post made malt infect her?
37 "Yeah I was about to point that out, that doesn't make sense Charter."
38 suspicion of charter due to "inherent contradiction" in the post
39 agrees with Rally that veerus could not have saved fallen.
39 questions why charter rejects veerus original scum.
40 "understands" charter wrt veerus not being original scum, but why couldn't veerus be recruited? As today veerus has "done nada."
41 response to pop about scum count. Agrees must be 3 scum.
42 no post today.
43 why is KC voting me? you buy the guard claim? why is Kid cleared?
44 Replacement vote is ok, but I want to hear why KC suspects me.

This day isn't very good either.

1. he can be seen as feeling out Rally to see if veerus can still be voted. He agrees with Rally. When charter doesn't agree, Shotty still wonders if veerus could be recruited. charter doesn't really agree and Shotty drops the subject.
2. asked BM whether he thinks I made malthusis recruit me with one post. Actually I think this was just an easy question to ask, as I don't think BM could have supplied Shotty with additional arguments that would help Shotty vote me at that time.
3. Shotty's strongest stated suspicion today was about charter's inconsistent theory. This doesn't result in a vote, FOS, or even follow-up comment when charter doesn't answer the issue. Isn't that extremely odd? I suspect that Shotty didn't see charter as a viable lynch target. So while it was worthwhile to point out a suspicion (backed up by another player already, how nice), it didn't look profitable to go after him.

Plus, charter basically dropped his Shotty suspicion immediately, so why tempt it to return. It just looks like Shotty wants to be friends with charter if at all possible.

I'm sad Shotty didn't get to post between my vote and unvote for charter.

4. His questions of me are why I ruled out BM and Kid. He doesn't present his own suspicions, and he doesn't question any of my scum possibilities except himself. Doesn't he want to say, that no, veerus can't be scum, or that maybe he could be scum? Does he want to talk about Rally, or anything?
5. When has Shotty

ever

expressed suspicion of Mokina/Replacement? He mentioned Replacement once (an agreement with him), and only buddied with Mokina. He's just ok with trusting charter that she/he's the lynch today?

So in conclusion,

confirm vote: Shotty

[Kelly Chen]

I skimped on 22.

Shotty also agreed with fallen's "assessment of the plan" (veerus') but disagreed that it marked scum.

And he defended himself against charter.

Shrug.

I was just looking to see if he ever commented on the FA-PP issue.

[Kelly Chen]

Damnit, I will reread Shotty since I skimmed that and saw some valid points. Kelly, can you maybe consolidate that to make it easier to read and so I know what exactly you think makes Shotty scum please?

Just to confirm, you think he's original scum, correct?

Yes. I have to think about how to consolidate it without making it longer.

But my basic sense, in a sentence, is that Shotty doesn't have real suspicions, especially not inconvenient ones.

His first nonrandom vote is for BM for suggesting a bad strategy. This vote comes off after BM starts attacking him, with the reasoning that "at least he's posting."

veerus only gets an FOS at first. This is elevated to a vote (to match FA at 2, I believe) after Shotty says he has reread veerus and Rally's arguments. That doesn't necessarily mean anything, but I think it's consistent with trying to find a way to elevate the FOS. I also think this is wishy washy, and concerned about being questioned:

I must admit right now after re-reading a couple of Rally's posts and doing a full re-read of all of Veerus' posts I am not liking his town odds. I don't really see any attempts at scum-hunting from Veerus, all he does is propagate his NL plan. He doesn't scum hunt so he has no suspects so he likes the idea of NL. He claims that town is in a favorable position if we let our night roles shoot it out with the scum. The scum have a huge advantage during any night time action, scum know who is on their side and who isn't, scum get to pick anyone for the scientist(s) to counter them (t)he(y) would have to be everywhere, the guard is more likely to shoot a fellow townie then a scumbag, and meanwhile the scum get to infect a player of their choice. I already pointed out to him our bad odds at night against scum and he still pushes this plan. I agree with Rally's 221,

we really need to pay more attention to Veerus' actions or rather his lack of them.

groan! I (and it could just be me) really dislike how this is padded with a reiteration of why the NL plan sucks. It doesn't seem like anybody would have wondered about that.

For post 26 I asked Shotty if veerus was the lynch. He had three options open.

in 27 says again that fallen is his second choice.

I think 28 is the only question mark with my theory. Kid bumped Kise into a tie for the lead. Rally moved his vote from veerus to fallen, so that tied for the lead are fallen-Kise rather than veerus-Kise. It seems a bit blatant to ask Rally why he made that move, instead of putting Kise in a clear lead. I am guessing it seems more blatant in hindsight, with fallen ending up as the actual lynch.

I wonder also why Shotty-town asks that question. Fallen is supposed to be Shotty's second suspect, not Kise. And there was little reason to think Rally would vote Kise.

After Shotty posts that though, three more votes pile up on fallen.

I think a difference between Shotty and veerus here is that Shotty was posting that day, and said he would move his vote, where veerus hadn't posted in four days.

I hope that gives you a little something

[Kelly Chen]

1. Rally's been in favor of lynching Veerus the entire time, I wanted to know if he still thought Veerus was scum after flipping FA on D1. I said before I didn't think the NL plan was scummy, my suspicion moved away as he became a more active participant on D2. Charter's post 495 gave some pretty convincing reasons that Veerus is most likely clean and I didn't see much evidence to the contrary.

A likely story. What I don't like is that you never said that, or the opposite. i.e. If a veerus wagon sprung up right now somehow, there's nothing to keep you from joining it.

2. I thought that was a thin assertion to make so I asked him to clarify, not sure what you're pointing out here.

Not much. That doesn't fit my model, so I think you were just saying something easy without much significance. Plus asking questions looks protown

3. Charter has been on several people's (possibly) newly infected scum lists, but not mine, so I haven't pushed for his lynch. I was pretty sure of his townishness yesterday and nothing he's done today has changed my mind about that.

This seems odd because you accused him of role-fishing and having an ulterior motive.

4. Sorry I didn't give you all of my ideas before I finished asking you about yours, that would be stupid because my ideas could change your answers and I wanted to see what you had to say first. Maybe I'm a selfish ass, but I like to answer people's suspicions about me before I talking about others, ignoring your suspicions of me and moving to talk about others right away is a scummy deflection, even if you want me to do that apparently.

Doing a pbpa on you was harder than responding to initial reactions.

Also, I'm personally not very interested in your explanations in your own defense unless you have something convincing that I didn't even think of. I could happily vote you just on gut, but unfortunately that wouldn't persuade anyone.

Not sure I follow that last part.

5. Kise and Veerus both made similar votes based on Charter's analysis on page 22, he did the leg work without a doubt and I hadn't done a lot of looking at The Replacement before, but does that mean I should totally ignore a logical line of reasoning? Do you have a problem with Kise and Veerus "trusting" Charter as well? I don't have to trust the player to trust a logical argument.

All you said is you "don't really have any problem with what charter is proposing."

veerus and Kise are irrelevant, there are other reasons to think they are town. If you want to make a theory about them, go ahead.

I like how in the PBPA I'm apparently silly for not questioning Veerus as a recruitment choice after I decided he wasn't original scum even though two posts above that one Kelly ridicules the idea of Veerus being a recruitment choice.

I don't think I follow this. What does my post have to do with anything.

As far as my question about KKN goes your position is still rather muddled as far as I can see, you claim to have cleared him in your mind, but you admit in 577 you thought he was scummy yesterday so what's the deal?

I think I've been pretty clear that I feel he was scummy but not scum. People don't seem content about why I think that, is all.

[Kelly Chen]

608 vote duly criticized as ass-saving.

poptajo, can you at least see my opinion on Kid, that his illogical defense of fallen (as you agree it was) was too blatant and too pointless to be a scum's move. If he was scum with fallen he should've dropped that issue as soon as he saw that it was going nowhere.

Shotty do you have any reason to think Kid is scum other than his 472 and my calling him town? I can't find that you ever commented on Kid before this.

[Kelly Chen]

in the mean time anthing i should look for or answer for??

charter 602 is quite good

[Kelly Chen]

kise could be scum too

Based on yesterday?

[Kelly Chen]

I miss poptajo.

[Kelly Chen]

Kelly was here.

[Kelly Chen]

I'm doubting that tubbyscum would be defending BM

But I also like Kise's 674.

Not sure whether BM's story makes sense. He fake claimed to avoid being lynched, thinking we could lynch the supposed last scum today. But having lost faith in that he was hoping to get vigged.

But: BM breadcrumbed guard before he had any votes. So he was just assuming he'd be run up??

And I'm not sure why getting comments on the Shotty case is so hard.

[Kelly Chen]

Can somebody please coherently outline the reasons behind me being wagonned earlier today?

You opened up the possibility of claiming guard before anybody wagoned you. That means you expected to need to fake claim. Why?

[Kelly Chen]

If there's a real guard, with BM standing by his guard claim, BM would almost surely be scum.

It still makes some sense, just not much more than killing anybody else who seems like scum.

On the one hand I don't see why BMscum admits he was lying; on the other hand I definitely see why BMscum considers claiming guard well in advance of a claim being needed. I don't know enough about BM as town though.

[Kelly Chen]

vote: Shotty

[Kelly Chen]

Is it a mindless bandwagon if everyone thinks the guy's scum? My vote wasn't mindless

What does stuck behind a lightning storm mean?


Good luck pop

[Kelly Chen]

Kelly Chen, what is your case on shotty?

Do you want links to my posts? You know I made some right?

How about you explain why you don't think Shotty is original scum.

I'm confident about Shottyscum because:
a. for original scum we don't have that many choices. I think it's just him or animorperv.
b. he's scum. (Pretty damning.)


Also,

575: Can't explain why she's clearing KKN.

Disagree

I did explain it. I think Kid is original town basically on the same evidence that pop thinks he could be original scum.

And even if N1 scum saw things my way, they would still have to be aware of how pop interpreted it, so they could only recruit Kid if they weren't paying attention.

[Kelly Chen]

If we're looking for a N1 recruit, I say it's limited to pop, tubby, or Rally. But I'm thinking pop was the obvious recruitment, and scum just went ahead and grabbed him doc be damned.

I mean look at who the scum were: fallen, malthusis, and Mokina ('s vacant position). Do you think these guys were thinking how to outguess the doc?

As for last night, pop also seems like an obvious pick. You can't really base a case on that (and I think scum expect that), but I feel better about it than saying pop was scum yesterday.

/intend to vote pop.

[Kelly Chen]

I probably did stop the Replacement lynch, or else BM did. But, even based on D2, I'm not sure you should think I'm the most likely partner for Replacement.

D2 also makes it pretty likely that charter, veerus, and Kise have been clean. That just leaves my suspect pool above, I think.


You know as I write this, I'm thinking Rallyscum feels better than popscum. More likely, ehhh, but his town act isn't so good that I have to marvel at him as I do with pop.

I still don't really think Kid was a likely recruit though...

[Kelly Chen]

What's your theory for veerus scum? I mean when did he become scum, or was he always scum?

[Kelly Chen]

@charter
I'm saying that pop has twice looked pretty protown. There are two theories for him being scum. I think the N3 theory is more believable, but the N1 theory is not totally out.

I can see why you voted me but I'm pretty sure I'm making sense.

[Kelly Chen]

I reskimmed a few people and I am going to completely flip-flop.

unvote, vote: Shotty

Much better bet I think.

Here's the breakdown I came up with:
Maybe original: charter, mokina/rplcmt, shotty, veerus, kise?
Maybe recruited: charter, pop, rally, shotty
Believe to be neither atm: me, bm, kid

This was the pebble that started the avalanche. Charter had been pretty townie up to that point and was leading a very strong case on mokina/replacement/aminoph and for you to put him in both original and recruited categories looks really bad (especially in hindsight).

vote: KC

I don't think moving my vote from charter to Shotty started an avalanche, except of people questioning my categories...

Even charter said it was warranted to call him out for side-stepping the issue Replacement and Shotty raised. Saying he had been pretty townie is kinda debatable.

I don't think I actually derailed anything until I wrote the Shotty pbpa, that increased the count of Shotty suspecters from 1 to 2...

[Kelly Chen]

Are you still hiding behind charter no matter what? Charter was really in a hurry to lynch Shotty yesterday. Of course, others - including me - weren't hesitating either, but it should be at least worth a look. Even more since he is one of your suspects.

charter's not scum, unless he was just now recruited. But that seems unlikely due to yesterday's misfortune.

[Kelly Chen]

Yeah but charter being in a hurry to lynch Shotty doesn't seem relevant to veerus' theory for charterscum.

[Kelly Chen]

Also, thoughts on Mokina original scum or infected at night? This could become important in our guessing of the number or original infected.

Yes, OR it could help us claim that somebody else is still original scum

FOS: you

[Kelly Chen]

Yeah but charter being in a hurry to lynch Shotty doesn't seem relevant to veerus' theory for charterscum.

Charter is the most-likely-infected for veerus, as he said - regardless if you or me think charter is. Since we had two suicides, that equals that for veerus charter is most likely scum. I fail to see why he has to vote for the same player charter does if he thinks charter is scum. Doesn't make sense.

What I was pointing out was that veerus only thought charter was scum as of last night. So charter's behavior regarding lynching Shotty wasn't relevant.


Well here's my vote.

vote: poptajo

I will accept your questions until the bitter end, if you have any. Don't be shy

[Kelly Chen]

Peace out guys.

[Kelly Chen]

Wow. The situation was drastically worse than I thought.

[Kelly Chen]

What to say.

I was happy to see that I nailed Mokina scum. Unhappy that scum thought the best way to get heat off Mokina was to recruit me.

Before I made my case against Shotty (which I probably would've made as town, too; note that I mentioned I suspected Shotty D1) I thought the game was going to be a flawless victory, with a Replacement lynch and Kelly vig (by BM). So I was rather desperate in making that case.

ani repeatedly proposed recruiting Rally, but I didn't see the point as Rally mostly played nice with us.

N2 the main ideas were Kelly recruits Shotty and ani recruits charter. I didn't want ani to recruit as 1) I thought he might be vigged, and 2) I didn't think I'd survive another day if he died.

I didn't realize ->Shotty was so transparent.

N3 I was sure we didn't have a vig, and I thought ani's number was up. He proposed ani->pop and I almost went with that because I was very busy. ani thought recruiting charter was too risky after the Shotty lynch. But I reread and felt that it would be better to recruit charter and lynch pop.

I was pretty excited about this possibility...

Good bunch of players.

I liked the setup more than I thought. I would cut almost all of the power roles and change it so a final lone scum turns into an SK (or else mafia just completely lose at that point; rebalance accordingly).

There's little to be gained in bussing. More important to survive in the short term, which I think makes scum scummier than usual. The only thing is that it's hard to make a case against the very last scum recruited.

Thanks.

[Kelly Chen]

The setup was tilted against the scum. I was afraid if it wasn't, townies might play to get infected rather than play to win as town. It might have been more heavily tilted than necessary.

This doesn't make a lot of sense to me as the setup wouldn't be revealed until a few days in... Did you expect the town to reject selling out to the scum, by metagaming that the mod wouldn't make the game winnable for scum?

The scum's best play might have been to not try to infect and just treat it as vanilla nightless. They had no way of knowing that though - and the threat of a security guard discouraged that play.

Maybe, but as vanilla nightless it's not balanced. You have to play as though you have a shot... e.g. generally I didn't think about what a doctor might be up to. Before BM rescinded his claim I considered having Replacement recruit him, gambling there was no doc

[Kelly Chen]

Some other comments on the scum discussion.

Mokina basically planned to be the first to suicide, on the second calendar day of the QT being open

But there was soon general agreement that Mokina was doing a good job looking town.

fallen proposed recruiting the whole town so everyone could win.

Mokina: "Battle Mage looks like one of those townies who's an intelligent scumhunter but acts cripplingly scummy about it himself. How should we play this?"

fallen: "I don't think we should try to get him lynched/infected today, because someone who appears very scummy themselves can be an asset in LyLo or later on in the game. As long as he can't prove we are scummy, it might be best to let him live a bit longer."

malthusis recommended infecting me or Battle Mage.

Mokina: "Kelly Chen seems too smart to live. She knows something's wrong, even if she can't quite explain it."

Mokina: "Rally Vincent picked up on your lurking, malthu."

malthusis thought everyone could recruit and asked FA who he was recruiting.

fallen: "Kelly Chen. Possibly tajo, whoever seems more confirmed in the town's eyes."

malthusis: "I'm infecting Kelly Chen myself. You infect someone else if you somehow survive."

fallen: "Oops, I got lynched. Didn't notice. Good luck."

malthusis to Replacement: "I am infecting Kelly Chen since my cover is nearly blown. Remember that even if you are in a tight spot, if you survive until the end of the day, you have a chance to swap people. Mokina was fairly pro-town and the only one who even has a sniff of your scumminess is KC, who I'm infecting tonight. Good luck."

---

Another move I considered more than once is recruiting Kise. I was unsure how dangerous Kise was to me, but I was also unsure how much cover he could give me.

---

At the end, D3, I didn't seem to have any good options. Logically I was only able to suspect poptajo, Rally, and tubby. I think a poptajo-Rally scumteam is not totally unreasonable. But making an issue of it would most likely just force Rally to vote for me.

[Kelly Chen]

Right and then they never work again.

[Kelly Chen]

It seemed like there was an inadvertent reveal from another game or something. If you want more info I will provide it?

[Kelly Chen]

I'll copy/paste from the time of my infection if you want, hold on

[Kelly Chen]

Oops.

[Kelly Chen]

I think it's odd that Shotty lied about his targets.

Would it have saved Shotty if he hadn't? On D2 I was just waiting for someone to speak up with an explanation of why there was no recruitment.

I don't know if the game would be better if smaller because I think this concept becomes stupid once you're down to one scum; if they survive then you almost start from scratch the next day.

I don't think not recruiting is a promising strategy... It's like no-kill except nobody has a "clean slate" going into the next day.

[Kelly Chen]

Regarding Shotty recruit attempt: I was trying to balance who I thought could most use the "free day," with who was unlikely to blow it somehow.

Basically I was torn on whether Shotty was a better lynch or a better recruit.

(It was a "free day" not just because I don't believe a player would be lynched on the weak theory of just now being recruited, but because I thought ani was done for.)

[Kelly Chen]

I may have miscalculated that a bit (i.e. the inclination of the town to go after the most recent recruit), but I still think that the town would believe there was still an original scum out there, and that it was probably ani.

Doctors could have complicated that though.

What do you think: ani's death implicated me; would my death have implicated ani? I tend to think so.

[Kelly Chen]

In hindsight pretty much anyone else would have been better.

[Kelly Chen]

Right. With the info we had I think it was the best move.

[Kelly Chen]

If I had known there were 3 doctors I would definitely have been willing to target a claimed test subject. Especially since things weren't going too well.