Mini 801- Kubrick Mafia (Over)
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Fishythefish Mafia Scum
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Fishythefish Mafia Scum
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Fishythefish Mafia Scum
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From extra information via my role, I can say, with very good certainty indeed, that Ash and Blood are both town, for reasons which will probably be clear to them but not to the rest of the town. In the case of Ash, I am completely sure. Following this statement, I expect at least one if not both of them to be able to say the same about me.
The reasons for this will become clear in time. However, divulging them now would be anti-town.
Oh, and I really, really, really am Spartacus.-
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When I said I thought Blood and Ash very likely town, I meant Pads and Blood, the two spartacus claimants. However, I no longer believe this is a way to confirm people.
I strongly disagree all townies should claim spartacus. From the scum's pov, spartacus may well not exist (except, of course, that I am him). Spartacus is a likely protown role. So are his followers- ie. his fellow claimants. People with information about spartacus are likely to be protown. Everyone claiming spartacus negates this absolutely. I would strongly encourage any townie who does not have a good reason from claiming spartacus to refrain from doing so, or to withdraw their claim if they have claimed already.
lazurus posted immediately after the spartacus claim. I am surprised and suspicious at the lack of an immediate counterclaim here.
unvote, vote: lazurus-
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It is not at all clear whether spartacus claimants make good or bad targets for the scum- we have no information about the role, or indeed existence, of spartacus, or of the role(s) of people with good (ie. role-related) reason to claim spartacus, and it is certainly not obvious that spartacus, if he does exist, will claim. I hardly see it helping the scum, unless they have some serious and unlikely information. On the other hand, it may well help townies to find out who is scum- since the spartacans would to some extent form an informed minority of townies. The scum could barely risk joining this minority, since if questioned it would become obvious that they didn't really know what was going on.Spolium wrote:You're essentially suggesting that the pool of targets be narrowed for scum. I fail to see the benefit in doing so, particularly when I'M SPARTACUS.
Right now, I suspect that every townie, and possibly even every scum as well, has an actual reason to claim Spartacus. However, if they don't, that is very interesting information and worth knowing. If there is a townie who was totally taken aback by Pads' claim, and who is not Spartacus, I for one want to know they exist. The small amount of extra information this gives the scum is more than made up for by the amound of extra information we gain from knowing the whole Spartacus affair means something.-
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Fishythefish Mafia Scum
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Hmmmm. This is a tricky one, and needs discussion.muzzz wrote:It's extremely likely that what you're asking is, in practice, the same as asking "If you got a different role PM than most of us, please let us know." What on earth could that possibly do for us, except potentially force a powerrole to claim?
Temporarily, at least, everyone should claim Spartacus- since not claiming Spartacus is an irreversible move.
If there are a smallish number of Spartacus role pms, knowing who they are would be extremely useful and testable. On the other hand, if there are a large number the remaining roles should want to blend in. If there is anyone without a Spartacus pm, the first scenario is pretty likely. There is a clear benefit of knowing it, but a single non-Spartacan is a bit of an obvious night kill target. If there is a non-Spartacan who, for whatever reason, wouldn't mind too much if they got shot at, I'd say they should speak up.-
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Fishythefish Mafia Scum
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This question should not be answered!AshMC1984 wrote:F the F - I am very surprised to hear that you meant Pads and not me in this statement:
because there is something in there that 99% confirmed you for me. I thought it was a breadcrumb, but I guess it's possible that it was pure coincidence.Fishythefish wrote:From extra information via my role, I can say, with very good certainty indeed, that Ash and Blood are both town, for reasons which will probably be clear to them but not to the rest of the town. In the case of Ash, I am completely sure. Following this statement, I expect at least one if not both of them to be able to say the same about me.
The reasons for this will become clear in time. However, divulging them now would be anti-town.
Oh, and I really, really, really am Spartacus.
Question to all: Does anyone else see what I saw? If so and you can answer it correctly you will be confirmed in my mind. DO NOT COME OUT AND SAY IT. I want to save it for if someone claims to pick up the crumb - and later if pressed, can't produce the right answer, we will pretty much have confirmed scum.
So:Who sees the perceived crumb (whether Fishy meant it or not)?
There is no intended crumb in there. If people see a crumb, then they likely have the same pm as Ash. That is not something I want the scum to know.-
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cateraction is, of course, Spartacus. The misspelling in meaningless, the crumb is convincing.
On reflection, enough people have convinced me that they have the same (or practically the same) information on Spartacus that I think that all townies are Spartacans, and possibly all scum as well. If this is not the case, I no longer want to know- any role that is not Spartacus is probably pretty special. I think that the only thing, if anything, to be drawn from this episode is that non-Spartacans are likely scum.-
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I've not said that people who claim Spartacus are more likely townies. However, if there are some players who have no reference to Spartacus in their pm, I think the scum are more than averagely likely to be among those players.
When I asked for non-Spartacans to claim, I was of course explicitly asking for role related information. The attack of rolefishing, while technically true, does not really apply here- my request was completely explicit, and my logic there for potential claimants to agree or disagree with.
I fail to see the merit in bandwagonning BC for a claim. From my pov, there is a good chance that his Spartacus related info is the same as mine. He also claimed Spartacus second, and so almost certainly has a reference to spartacus in his pm. I can't see how his claiming could be protown except in the context of an impending lynch.-
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I think it is sensible to ask BC to flesh this out with character name at least, and possibly with Spartacus information.BloodCovenent wrote:Here's my claim.
BloodCovenent wrote:Can you explain that a little more? How would this make my attack on Pads bogus? I honestly thought he was lying, but now i don't. I'm sure he was given the name Spartacus, but then again, who wasn't? And frankly, we got this out kinda early, which is almost surprising, and maybe even good. Imagine if we were 20 pages in.
Of course, the way it looks right now, is that everyone, or almost everyone was given the name Spartacus. But each one has a specific role under that. So claiming Spartacus right now, is actually, and probably was pointless from the beginning. the only one that i don't know about, is Spolium. Thus why i Originally voted for him.
Problem is, we were all given the name Spartacus. I don't know why, i guess it was just to confuse us or something. So, my suggestion... is that we disregard the whole Spartacus debate, on who really is. We probably all are. But one person i didn't get, was Spolium.Like, i have no idea what Spolium is talking about, it doesn't sound like something from a Gladiator movie. Does anyone else have any history or knowledge of other Kubrick films?-
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Fishythefish Mafia Scum
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My interpretation of the advantage of claiming Spartacus was initially that I would be in some sort of informed (probably very small) minority, then later very possibly that there was no real reason. The power up never crossed my mind until BC claimed it (although now it seems very convincing).cateraction wrote:Sorry, the "again" was because that was my reason for voting BC. I now apply it to you. I was told that claiming spartacus would be advantageous and the fact that you did not think it would be a power up leads me to believe that you did not receive a spartacus role. Hence the vote.-
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Fishythefish Mafia Scum
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Indeed... I wasn't claiming to have been right about my speculations. But cater found Muzzz suspect for not expecting the power up thing. I don't think it was at all obvious.lazarusmoth wrote:Fishy, consider that the Spartacus claim is not in the hands of a very small minority. Consider that Spartacus claims are pro-town roles to activateandmask the cop role. It's unfortunate that it didn't work the way it was planned now that the cat's out of the bag.-
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Pads- Muzzz thought that BC had different information (and he was right), and was worried the scum would pick up on this. As scum, why not just night kill BC without worrying about doc protection? As town, it is questionable whether what he did was the right move. However, your alternative of asking for doc protection doesn't make any sense, and there's no good scummy motive.
I'm not sure Pads has different information from me, but I think it's a good possibility. I wasn't going to claim Spartacus unprompted, but I can see others doing so with the same role pm. Pads appears to think that the pm refers to things which mine does not though.
vote: Pads-
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I'll try to explain fully my Spartacus thought process.Spolium wrote:@Fishythefish- I'm still having trouble consolidating the idea that you believe(d) Spartacus is likely a pro-town role yet wanted to keep the number of claims minimal, and it's strange that you went on to claim that it was not clear that Sparticans make good scum targets despite the former point.
Initially, I imagined the reference to Spartacus was intended as a claim to save you- and hence only a couple of people had it, with very possibly no actual Spartacus in the game. I thought that, if I was right about this, actual Spartacus claims would be valuable information- they would go some way towards confirming a player. I also thought that the Spartacus claims (of which I knew there would be at least three left) might well come from a variety of roles, and it wouldn't be easy for the scum deciding whether to shoot at them, even if they suspected that the real Spartacus (if he existed) was a powerful PR.
I never wanted Spartacus outed- however I did want only the people with a good reason to claim Spartacus to do so. I believed (and believe, though it's not relevant now) that, if we constituted a minority, we could get valuable information out of it.
unvote
Yeah. On reflection, it's hard to believe scum have information different from mine which makes them the first to claim Spartacus.-
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From my pov, it was clear that Pads, Blood and myself at least had a good reason to be claiming Spartacus.muzzz wrote:What bothers me most about Fishy is his initial over-eagerness to assume scum wouldn't know about Spartacus. I've wondered more than once if maybe heknewthat scum lacked said info.
And on re-read, I have absolutely no idea what this is referring to:
Fishythefish wrote:I also thought that the Spartacus claims (of whichI knew there would be at least three left)
My initial reactions were based on false (and probably rather silly) assumptions about what the Spartacus information meant.
Consider that I claimed Spartacus third- I think it's not very realistic to think I did it without information.-
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I meant:muzzz wrote:So by "three left" you meant "even if everybody stopped claiming after that point, there would still be at least three players who had claimed Spartacus"?
"There were at least three players with role related reasons for claiming Spartacus. Even if claims ceased, and baseless claims were withdrawn, there would remain three Spartacus claims."-
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Fair enough.muzzz wrote:
I disagree. I think it's quite realistic to expect someone to make the connection between two Spartacus claims and the "I am Spartacus" scene.Fishythefish wrote:Consider that I claimed Spartacus third- I think it's not very realistic to think I did it without information.
I'm not sure to what extent this was related to your previous comment. In this case, you were suggesting I was scummier due to a possible lack of information- I provided some evidence that I did have information. In general, though, I am in complete agreement with you. I no longer assume anything about who might have information on Spartacus.muzzz wrote:And I can't stress this enough:. People need to stop assuming silly things and start playing with what we know. Suggesting that the scum wouldn't know something without having facts to back it up is counter-productive. All it does is give people a false sense of trust towards others. And only scum profit from that.we have absolutely no reason whatsoever to assume anything about the scum's knowledge
I’d like some backup for this post please- how is 164 "so scummy"? The only thing you say in support is to reference a post of another player, which was asking for clarification on something. And then you repeat the point by asking for something I have already answered. It feels like you wanted to jump on a wagon which was suddenly looking popular.Infinis wrote:Who do I think is scum...FTF his 164 is so scummy I dont know where to begin. As an opener muzz's 169 first line. That just leaped out of FTF post for me as well. And I too would like an explanation of the 3 claims left line.
The mason theory from Pads is completely unwarranted speculation- while of course something vaguely similar to this could be true, there’s nowhere near enough information to make such theories worth giving any weight to.
I think the case against muzzz has exactly no merit, and am seriously opposed to his lynch.
Pads is a decent candidate for scum. His most recent post feels like an incredibly contrived extra justification of his vote for muzzz, and claiming Spartacus to keep him hidden seems bizarre (surely you expected a counterclaim? why was the claim necessary at that stage?). I can see someone with my role pm claiming unprompted as Spartacus, although it would seem rash, but not if you realised the whole idea was to hide Spartacus. Right now, I don’t have anything stronger on anyone else, and I much prefer this wagon to the other one that’s going strong.
vote:Pads-
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Indeed. Extremely uncomfortable with Infinis's recent play. This line is terrible:
Make an argument. At the very least, express what points of other arguments you agree with. Don't hide behind the opinions of BC without even saying why you agree with them.Infinis wrote:BC has argued his points better than muzz soUnvote; Vote Muzz
I think the muzzz bandwagon is likely heavily scum-fuelled. I think Pads and Infinis being scum together is pretty likely right now.-
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The short version: I haven't seen a single convincing argument against him.lazarusmoth wrote:Fishy, you're the one I consider the most town here, and my read on muzz are taking a slight hit. Could you tell me, in brief, why you're not voting for him?
The medium version: the main line of attack is that he outed the cop. Well, he didn't. BC relatively clearly had different information from other players on Spartacus. Relying on scum not to notice this would have been foolish. Further, muzzz had noticed. As scum, why on earth just not keep quiet and take out Spartacus?
Other arguments against muzzz:
1. Him telling "everyone" to claim Spartacus, implying that he doesn't think everyone is a Spartacan, implying he isn't a Spartacan, implying he is scum.
Everyone single "implying" in that sentence is broken.
2. He didn't think Spartacus claims might power up Spartacus
Well- could be a tiny grain of truth in that one. However, the fact that by then cateraction had already said what his pm said in relation pretty much negates this. This is a weak but valid point.
3. He never claimed Spartacus.
False.
4. He wanted to force Pads to claim.
Rereading for the purpose of this post, I'm not quite so comfortable with this- I was under the impression muzzz thought Pads scum from the outset, whereas actually he was briefly just bandwagonning for a claim. Still, when you consider that two people had already said he looked to have different information than them, it makes sense.
Reading through, I don't see any other arguments against him.
The long version would involve serious walls of quotes, and may or may not follow some time in the future. Probably not.
1. Just because your townie pm (for the sake of argument) gives you a reason to claim Spartacus doesn't mean that a scum pm wouldn't also do so.Infinis wrote:After reading my PM, I can see no reason why anyone is on the pads wagon. I think it's a OMGUS + scum wagon, well the alternate is almost as mind blowing as the thought process behind the undue cop claim.
2. Why are you on the BC wagon?-
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The fact that I'm the one responding to these questions may give the appearance that I like this argument more than I do.muzzz wrote:@Fishy and everyone else who likes that argument: so you're saying it came socompletelynatural to you that you basically consider it an impossibility that someone with the same PM didn't arrive at the same conclusion?
I find this quite surprising. Nothing in my PM (or in what Cat described of his) directly supports the idea of claims powering something up. There's also nothing that directly supports it in BC's claim. As far as I can tell, it's actually a bit of a stretch. Not a bad one, mind you, but a stretch nonetheless.
That assumption came naturally enough to me that I consider it slightly, but only slightly, unlikely that someone with the same PM didn't arrive at the same conclusion. If I considered it impossible, I would be voting for you.
There's nothing in either the PM or the claim directly supporting the idea. However, it was natural to be on the lookout for things to link the PM to (particularly as the early days of Spartacus were a rather unhelpful and predictable fiasco), and this seemed a natural candidate.
@Everyone voting for muzzz: what arguments did I miss in 216? I really don't understand the 5 votes on muzzz.-
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Fishythefish Mafia Scum
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Thing is, it's pretty clear muzzz had spotted something was up in BC's play, which meant he wasn't a normal Spartacan townie. If muzzz was scum, there's really no motivation to do anything other than keep quiet and night kill Spartacus. Scum don't have any reason to publicly out privately known PRs.
One big reason for voting Pads is that, for me, the muzzz wagon is bad, both in its arguments and in its participants. It feels like it has gathered support too easily to be a weak wagon on scum, and remarkably little has been thrown up against it. It feels like the mislynch wagon for the day. I also have a scummy read on Pads-
1. Claims Spartacus- a townie claiming Spartacus to hide him? Doesn't make sense. I don't really buy the excuse of following the movie- it would be an odd thing to assume that whatever worked for a character in a movie would work for the corresponding character in a game of mafia.
2. Extremely weak points on various players-
Spelling error.
"Showmanship"- even if ort was trying to build up to his claim, hardly a scumtell.
Mason theory- a thinly disguised way to attack muzzz (for probably not being in a hypothetical mason group). His post implies a false dichotomy- muzzz the Spartacan mason or muzzz the scum.
I'm not saying it's a brilliant case. He's only made 6 posts. But I haven't liked a pretty high percentage of those posts, and I don't see a better wagon around.-
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As well as the wagon situation, it is worth considering how close we are to deadline in timing your claim- particularly if you are something which is likely to make the town reconsider. We don't want a mislynch or a no lynch because there is insufficient time after an interesting claim.
@skitzer (et al): what are the "good points" for the muzzz case? I really feel I'm missing something.-
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I find Infinis scummy, and have been considering a bandwagon on him.ortolan wrote:If Ash revotes his top suspect then we will only need four votes to lynch in five days if desired, which is readily attainable. I at least want people's comments on why they don't find Infinis scummy when they next post. "We can't get a bandwagon going in time" is not an excuse with five days to go.
The main thing is the paired bandwagons on Pads and muzzz. They way they have got stuck suggests to me that one of them is likely to be on scum.
I'll take another look at Infinis though. I haven't really been thinking of him as a viable lynch for today, but perhaps he can indeed be made so.-
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I've taken another look a Infinis. It didn't take long. He does consistently come across as a player who simply isn't interested in accuracy or reason. He continually refuses to explain his vote on a player whose lynch is very possible. His 229 sets up a false dilemma in which at least one of the wagons is scum (with an added but fairly nonsensical third option).
unvote, vote: Infinis
The Pads wagon isn't that strong if we're honest. It's late in the day, but let's see if we can't lynch the scummiest player.-
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You'd expect a theme game to follow it's subject matter a certain amount. Batman and the joker being on different sides, yes. Pre-emptively claiming Spartacus? Not so obvious.Pads wrote:I don't know how you can say this. If you were in a Batman themed game, would it be odd to assume that Batman and the Joker were on different sides?
Of course a themed game can veer from the subject material in any number of ways, but to say that any assumption of similarity between the subject material and the game is odd is, itself, odd.
Your post brings up a random theory, implies it to be likely, and attacks muzzz in the context of that theory. This is an unfair way to attack a player.Pads wrote:I don't know what 'thinly disguised' means here, since it wasn't disguised at all. Why would I want to disguise my case against Muzzz?
It doesn't matter if there are Masons are not, the point of that post was to discuss the possibility of Muzzz's actions coming from a townie perspective, specifically from the townie group that I believe is looking for Spartacus.
At no point did I say, or even imply, that scumMuzz and masonMuzzz were the only two possibilities. Do not put those words in my mouth.
Your post's conclusion:
I think this implies that if muzzz isn't in the mason group, he is scum.Pads wrote:Which brings me back to my reconsideration. Maybe you're in that Mason group, Muzzz. But if that were the case, I gotta think you would have stayed silent upon realizing that BC was likely Spartacus, rather than drag him out into the open. My vote stands.-
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I'm a tad under the influence right now, but with deadline not so far away I think this post is worth making nevertheless.
From Ash's recent posts, plus his picking up on my "breadcrumb", it is clear that he is an extra VT, or scum pretending to be such. Therefore, if Infinis is scum, the scum are privy to the VT rolename (except in the unlikely instance that Infinis and Ash are both talking crap, AND Ash breadcrumbed the same crap for no apparent reason). That seems like a fairly odd mechanic- surely if you were going to reveal this to the scum you'd just go ahead and put it in the first post.
I'd expect a scum to claim VT, unless they had been given a fake claim. I certainly wouldn't expect them to have someone who explicitly supports their rolename claim.
vote: Pads-
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I'm unconvinced by ortolan's idea that the scum likely have the VT rolename in their PM. This would be an anti-town device- it could effectively out PRs in a situation like this- anyone not recognising the VT rolename would automatically be a PR. I find this at least as unlikely as Emp leaving in something which helps confirm VTs. If he was going to publish the rolenames, surely it would just be in the first post- not the whole PM, but just the name of the role.
Right now, we have multiple people recognising the name "extra". It seems deeply likely that, if these people are genuine, all VT's are extras. In the unlikely scenario that there is a VT out there who is not an extra, they should speak up.-
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Well, from my readings of other theme games it would be standard for the scum to have one or more safe claims. I would expect them to claim one of these, with a suitable PR, if they had no knowledge of the VT rolename. If they did know the rolename, I'd expect them to claim VT. It's not all that relevant now- we know that either Infinis is scum with knowledge of the rolename, or a genuine VT. All that is relevant is how likely it is that Empking gave the scum the rolename.ortolan wrote:I would still like to know what people think scum are likely to claim in this game when wagoned, and what the perceivedprobabilityof that specific claim is compared to others.
Well, yes. Of course. Infinis gains credit because he has information which wasortolan wrote:What are we going to do when the next person gets wagoned to a claim and claims extra? We going to lynch them simply because Infinis happened to be the first to get wagoned to a claim?probablyexclusively townie information. This is no longer the case, and any other claims of extra do not hold the same weight. You are making a non-argument here.
Definitely. A claimed cop (or going-to-be-cop, or whatever) has to be a bad lynch for now, but there's no reason to trust BC atm.muzzz wrote:Also, I seriously hope no one is taking BC's claim for granted. There's no direct evidence that he faked it, but neither is there any direct evidence to support his claim. The best anyone can reasonably do at this time is give him the benefit of the doubt.
I find it very unlikely that scum-Ash would breadcrumb his information in the way he did. I think this makes him look very good.
@ Infinis: what reference does your pm make to Spartacus, if any (paraphrasing, of course)?-
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Fishythefish Mafia Scum
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Urgh. I missed the deadline (because it was posted by Empking's alt; reading the mod in isolation, I missed it). It appears to hit tomorrow.
@mod: what time does deadline hit?
I am hugely torn between the two bandwagons right now. I certainly don't think Infinis is clear; but I think his claim does make him more likely protown.
I'd definitely like an answer on what Spartacus information Infinis has. We are taking a difficult deadline decision; I think it's worth hearing this.
Deadline causes no lynch. No lynch is very bad. Don't let this happen.-
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Fishythefish Mafia Scum
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Everyone needs a vote on a realistic bandwagon, and soon, even if you don't think any of them are the scummiest. Even if you are on a realistic bandwagon, you should consider the merits of moving- the fewer bandwagons around, the more likely we are to get a lynch.
I should almost certainly be able to check the thread very close to deadline. I would prefer any lynch that currently looks possible to no lynch.-
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Fishythefish Mafia Scum
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ortolan wrote:if we had successfully wagoned scum to a claim, what would you expect them to claim?
---Pads wrote:Well, well. We've rather stumbled into it, but it looks like we have our lynch. Since I can't talk after death, I guess I'll take the opportunity to claim Mafia Goon now.
Pads's reference to upcoming mislynches should, of course, be ignored.-
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Fishythefish Mafia Scum
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I'm uncertain on Infinis. Rereading his response to me, it's pretty clear to me he has the same Spartacus information as I do. But apart from that, I really really want him dead.
I expect my activity to change significantly from about next Monday. Probably for the worse, but I should still be able to review and post once a day.-
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I disagree that the claim means nothing. Infinis has proved he is privy to significant parts of townie pms. We don't know the same about Pads- all we know is that he certainly knew something about Spartacus.
@ all Infinis voters: If you knew for a fact that Infinis knew the entirety of the VT pm (which I think at this stage is pretty likely), would you still vote for him? That's the question I'm trying to answer for myself, and I think on balance not.
vote: lazarus-
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Fishythefish Mafia Scum
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Argh. Actually, that last post from Infinis is horrible. "I'll follow Spartacus"- absolving himself of authority and appealing to the fact that the semi-clear player is on his side, as if this makes him more likely town.
unvote, vote Infinis
VT lynch isn't devastating at this stage. Infinis looks terrible.-
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Fishythefish Mafia Scum
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Of course. But you are not a confirmed VT. I'm not prepared to leave a scummy player alive all game. The VT point was really because it's relatively likely there's a doc out there. If so, the only disastrous move today is outing said doc.Infinis wrote:Lynching a VT is a bad plan always.
If he had actual information, he would certainly have said so.Infinis wrote:BC said his cop power was now active, so therefore I went with flavor and the assumption. So either I misconstrued what he wrote, since he voted Laz immediately (which now it seems I did) or you don't believe he's the cop (moot point now)
"One more night to clear me" is a nonsense. If you are the most likely scum, and you aren't a power role, there's no reason to wait for an investigation. Clearing you is a waste of an investigation; one more night is one more night to use any scum powers you possess.Infinis wrote:So anyway, the ultimate lurk play that was/is Archon/kise is frustrating borderline scummy. With a promised investigation to all my voters do you believe one more night to clear me will break the game?-
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If we lynch Infinis, we lynch a VT or a scum. If we go for another wagon, we risk outing the doc (if it exists). If we happen to wagon another scum, and they claim doc, we either don't lynch them or out the real doc. We are in a good position, and getting as many investigations as possible in is a priority. To convince me that Infinis was not the best lynch, I wouldn't just want a scummier player. To make up for the fact that Infinis is a claimed VT, the other player would have to be practically certainly scum- and I don't think that exists here.-
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