Ok - I think I'll make some comments about the last few posts.
@Tenchi - Thank you for your analysis, it was obviously a lot of work. Two things I would note about it, and this is just my opinion, so take it with a grain of salt - I wouldn't write about what scum tells you're looking for in other people. I'm a big believer in honest and open reasoning, as my posts have demonstrated, but there are some things worth keeping to yourself, and the things you're looking out for in other people are one of them. If I were scum, I could look at your list before every post and know how to make sure I don't raise your suspicions.
The other is that your conclusions are a little lacklustre, and possibly swayed by STARTING from the point that Hero is scum. I understand that's your position, and you've been like that for all of D2, but I think a little more open-inded ness might have helped you out a little.
Still - great posts and it's good to see some more issues being unearthed.
@Feeres - I haven't got too much to say about your questions - I think they'll probably be more useful to you than anyone else. One thing I'd say is perhaps you could try to limit your questions just a little - I think 3 or 4 thorough quesitons are probably more useful (and more reasonable to answer). But that's just my opinion.
I also might have misrepresented you defending Toledo - I'm about to write a long strategy post but maybe after if it's not too late I'll try to find you a quote. I could have just been thinking about that 155 post.
@ All.
Toledo never said anything about me being cleared. He said most, that is only a major part, of suspicion is gone, cleared was the word Kiku was using and the word which you are using which implies that I'd be 100% clear. It's odd you'd make an argument against him based on a word choice he didn't use.
These are the posts from Toledo at that stage.
I honestly don't feel bad for killing CJ; he was frankly being way to suspicious. At this point, I think that the majority of suspicion to Feeres has been eliminated with the lynching off CJMiller, since he was just a townie and Feeres would have no motivation to give him one less vote if Feeres was scum.
No, I'm not saying that ALL suspicion of Feeres is gone. If he had in fact voted for CJ, then it would have looked like he wanted a quick kill and prevent information from coming. Though I can see why you still have doubts about Feeres; it might have just been a plot to make CJ look more suspicious the next day if he wasn't lynched.
Also at this point, I'm forced to believe that either Tenchi or Hero is scum. Not sure which one is more reasonable and which is scummy though. It should become clearer over the next few real days.
It's worth bringing this up, because I do feel it's an odd reaction from Toledo, although my scum pairing of Feeres and Toledo doesn't seem that likely to me any more. But it's worth looking at, I think.
So you are right in that the word 'cleared' didn't come up, but I feel that his first post essentially did remove a lot of suspicion from Feeres for very little reason.
His second post seems scummy to me not just beause it's a little mollifying and still keeps up his poor reasoning - the key was that he said he is forced to believe either Tenchi or Hero is scum. To me that was a stretch and was EXACTLY the play a scum would make if T v H really was a townie vs townie flare-up (like I had hypothesized). It took attention off any side debate and, without commiting himself to voting a townie, was able to focus in on the red herring debate. He also says this despite in the post quoted above it saying that the CJ vote wasn't bad. If so, he should perhaps be taking a side in the HvT debate, not just saying 'one of them must be scum'.
The more I write the more I revisit suspicion on him. His next major post says:
Hero, you seemed rather focused on getting Tenchi at this point with such a temerity (correct me if I used that word in wrong context). You keep on saying that Tenchi voted for CJMiller with prior knowledge that he was in fact a townie. It seems that Tenchi hammered CJ because he could have just been acting. Yet you say that Tenchi knew he was town, and that Tenchi would rather kill a newbie than scum. Though Tenchi only said that he wouldn't let CJ keep on going to the endgame since he was a newb.
I'm beginning to wonder if you (being Hero) are a cop, and you investigated Tenchi and got negative. But the odds of there being a cop and you being it are slim, and I think at this point it's more of a rivalry between you and Tenchi.
Not voting at this point since I'm still not convinced about anyone being scum. Have my suspects though.
There was a little more to it, check out the post if you desire (it's about 186 or so.)
So yes. More focus on HvT debate, rolefishing, suggesting that we should vote someone due to a hypothetical result. And of course, rolefishing doesn't help the town and allows scum to have a better chance of hitting our power roles (if any). It's just all very scummy to my mind.
However - while a lot of people find Toledo 'midly scummy' it doesn't seem to be their main concern today (game day 2). That's fine - I've made my case, and I feel confident that should we strike town today in our lynch we can come back to this case tomorrow. I don't really mind what the order of lynches is, but I would not like to end this game without either lynching Toledo or getting a very believable explanation/claim from him.
Turning to other major targets - I personally have ~4 players who I think could be scum - it doesn't mean the others can be ruled out, but given we only have 2 shots at this, we have to start narrowing down the field. I don't want to publish all of them yet because I don't want to narrow the field too greatly, but you obviously know a few of them.
Having said that, the other person that I suggest we take a serious look at lynching today is Hockey, for a number of reasons that have been stated in previous threads. However what really shot him to suspect status in my mind was his recent post.
I personally found his latest post utterly unconvincing. I'll go through it in a little detail, because I think it's probably one of the important moments in the game.
Firstly, in answering the questions, he is (now) sticking to his 'it's easy for mafia to hide as a newb' justification for the lynch of CJ. It doesn't quite follow from his thinking that CJ is probably town (post 133) and it also doesn't explain the speed iwth which there was a lynch. There was a convinient town lynch just waiting for scum to come along and contribute to, and it looks to me like Hockey did just that.
Next is the following theory:
Hero/Tenchi The Mob Squad (Great name I know ): Anyways, as you'll notice. Hero and Tenchi have been specificaly targetting each other. And has been said before, this doesn't really do much good (Beating a dead horse) Yet the one thing it does do is remove any suspicion of BOTH of them being mafia. And only once has Tenchi gone to L2 because of this. And that was only from a vote from Toledo.
This to me is poor logic indeed. Let's assume they were both scum. If they had constructed their little argument, they would almost certainly have gotten one of them lynched today (If I hadn't replaced in that was looking almost certain, I think it's fair to say.) That means that you would be pretty assured that the non-lynched one was town. But then there is night, then another lynch and another night. So
why didn't that person die??
Say Tenchi got lynched and flipped scum, everyone thinks Hero is town - then he isn't killed by mafia 2 nights in a row - it makes no sense. Hero is essentially the only confirmed town person, yet he keeps living. I would find that highly worrying, and in a 3 man lylo, I doubt he'd find a win. In addition - that plan is instantly foiled by a cop, and definitely hurt by a doc. When scum put their buddies at risk early on in the game, it's very hard to win.
Again - anything is possible, but at a time where we need ot make some hard decisions, that's an easy one - tha'ts so unlikely to be true it's not worth considering, in my opinion. I think this theory is garbage designed to keep us guessing.
His reasoning about how they have only ever been at L-2 is dodgy reasoning as well - as I said earlier, I think had I not replaced in a lynch of one or the other was highly likely. Simply because the votes hadn't been placed yet didn't matter, there were only 2 real suspects. They placed each other in serious danger.
Also he mentions a vote from Toledo in what seems like an irrelevent post. I believe kiku also highly suspected Tenchi. This is only a minor point and could be nothing, but given I find Toledo scummy I wonder if this is an attempt to try to salvage Toledo's reputation a little. Note that Hockey is one of the few people not starting to suspect Toledo or question things like the rolefishing.
I think Serial mentioned that I've only been popping in when my name has been read, and only to defend myself. I think its pretty natural for me to do that (defending myself atleast) and I think its also a lot more pro-town then Tenchi defending himself and simultaneously attacking Hero.
I disagree entirely. There are two points here. The first is the desire to defnd yourself is fine - the
timing
of the defense is suspicious. Hockey has made about 10 posts out of the last 200, and each of them consists of a direct response to Hero's questions/attacks and that is it. No scum hunting, no discussion of the game state or other players, or taking a side in the HvT debate. He just watched and waited then defended himself every now and then. He also wasn't inactive - he defended himself quickly when attacked. That means he was paying attention, just rarely posted. That is a scum tell to me, I don't like that sort of player, I think it's not pro-town at all.
The second issue with that quote is saying that it's more pro-town than defnding yourself AND attacking Hero. I completley disagree. If you attack Hero for no reason, then maybe that's true, but at least Tenchi had some form of a case to make and genuinely seems to believe Hero is scum. That may or may not be the case, but just by creating debate and trying to reason out a case, he is creating more information for the town. It also means there's more likely to be a slipup if either he or Hero was scum, which is another pro-town advantage. Now, I happen to think Tenchi is still pretty scummy and I think his case is relatively weak, but I do 100% believe it is much better than passively defending yourself and going back to active lurking.
I know that its been mentioned multiple times that I could be scum with Toledo. Yet I'm not even sure why toledo is being suspected in the first place? Has he said something in D2 thatI've missed? Because I didn't notice anything in Day one.
I think surely there's been enough talk about odd defences, role-fishing and his support of the CJ lynch post-lynch that you couldn't have missed some scummyness coming from Toledo. Kiku, myself, Hero and Tenchi's recent analysis have all found some form of fault or suspicion with Toledo, often with a fair amount of detail. I also called for his lynch and voted him with a list of reasons and suspicious posts in my first major analysis summary post, a pretty prominent post. This seems like an attempt to both distance yourself from Toledo and at the same time clear him of suspicion, both of which are far from successful in my eyes.
I also think feeres brings up an excelent point.
Feeres wrote:
For some reason, you are quick to announce Kiku as very townie, when she has failed to address the large movements and just sniped at minor details IMO. No attacks have been made against her and she seems to actively hunt these logical inconsistencies, but I'm not convinced that she wouldn't be scum who just lets minor slips of her scumbuddy to go by if those would happen.
This is very true and I think we should pursue it,
Finally, this point is relatively weak. For one, it is reasoning through others, which is a pet hate of mine. If you feel that they have a point, look at the posts in detail and find a reason to agree. He's listed no examples of where that's an issue, where kiku has done anything scummy or why he feels the issues she has brought up so far have been scummy. It's just a red herring thrown in that to me seems purely designed to throw us off the scent.
So - that's my analysis of Hockey's latest post.
After reading that and thinking about it, in conjuction with the other issues of the quicklynch, I think that Hockey is a deserving lynch today. We've had a lot of analysis from a lot of players ABOUT a lot of players, and that will definitely give any power roles we might have something to go on. We know the sort of players we as a group find scummy and why. We are getting mounting evidence on the scummiest amongst us and our decisions can be more and more informed. I think the last few days of discussion have really got us onto the right track. But I also think it's time to work out a lynch.
My two main suspects are Hockey and Toledo and I think it is possible now that they are actually scum together, based on their recent posts. There seems to be slightly more impetus for suspecting Hockey at the moment, and I think it kills two birds with one stone. I think a lynch of Hockey will give us a lynch on one of the scummiest players and maybe lead us to his buddy in Toledo, but it will also give us valuable information about a possible scumteam of Tenchi/Hockey with the quicklynch on CJ as well. If he were to flip town, we have a lot of analysis to dig through to work out where our reasoning went wrong and who our most likely lynch for a lylo D3 is. If he flips scum, then we can focus directly on Toledo or possibly Tenchi or whoever else we see a connection with and we can go from there.
So while I would still be up for a Toledo vote, and I still think he's very scummy, I think that Hockey has superceeded him and become the most scummy player, and I think his lynch would give more information to the town.
So, after that essay, I'll
unvote: Toledo, vote Hockeyruler
By all means lets continue the discussion if people still have some issues, and perhaps Hockey might like to claim, but essentially, I'm pretty much ready to hammer.
I'm old now.