Newbie 769 - Game Over

[Hockeyruler]

Post 192 links to a similar question, because I don't know what you are saying.

And your answer to that does not show that I misquoted anything. I read it and feel that I have quoted the right stuff properly. Post 195, you provided me an example where I misquoted something. Nothing was misquoted there.

Uhm, if you quoted the right stuff, then why did you write that post "in the context of my day 1 post?"

Also, I was responding to a D1 post on Post 151. Explanation here: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 33#1614533

I know...I never said otherwise.

Don't even reply since we're going to go in circles. Which is just mucking up this thread.

Uhm, no. When you make a post that is clearly made to paint me in a bad light I am obliged to reply.

And stop making up stuff

I never did.

You say that I quoted the post with your questions in it, then clearly say I quoted post 184 and your questions were in 170.

There were questions in both posts. Why you couldn't read through them and see that, and then answer them I have no clue.

As to bringing up him being mafia. I said earlier that it would be easy for a mafia member to act newbish and still "get his job done".

Yes I know what you said, but it contradicts what you said before.

I don't remember ever saying that I think its highly unlikely CJ was scum.

I doubt that. You said it in post 125:

This does no help. And I honestly do not know how to proceed.

I'm looking for some help from our IC Very Happy

Is it okay to vote for CJ simply because I feel he isn't being helpful?

I highly doubt hes mafia.

He seems more... "Extremely newbish" and yet not voting for someone because of this seems like it would make it a very easy way for the mafia to "go about business".

yet according to you I've been unatentive too... And yet clearly I haven't been.

Lol. Not attentive? That's why you fucking forgot what you even said, and you forgot about the questions I asked you, and you didn't answer the questions I asked in 184.

You're continued neglecting of my questions is noted.

ATTN TOWNIES: I think it should be pretty obvious by now that at least one of these two is scum. I really want your thoughts on this.

MOD: Please prod Slaine Hayes.

[/b]

[Hero764]

Was there a point to that post hockey?

Glad to have you back though.

[Feeres]

Ah, I've been busy preparing for an exam so I haven't been able to properly post for days now. I got my exam tomorrow so I will make a post with content then. Things I need to do is to just review the Hero/Tenchi conversation, otherwise you know my position on people.

[SerialClergyman]

Hi guys,

I'm feeling guilty I haven't added anything , but as you know discussion was very robust. I've written probably over 1000 words in notes and I'm about halfway through, so when the notes + analysis gets published there will be an epic wall of text, I promise!

[Hockeyruler]

Wow really sorry, I accidentaly posted that and was editing my real post that explained that that nonsense post was because I mixed up the preview and submit button, then I had to leave before my other post was done.

I'm gonna be busy today but I'll try ad get something up in about 12 hours

[SerialClergyman]

Err..

So prepare for a wall of text. You guys don't have to review this if you don't want, these are my notes as I read through.

I'm a big believer in town being open, honest and transparent with reasoning. Big fan of the LAL philosophy and generally reasoning it out.

So here goes:

post 7 CJ Miller votes nolynch, probably newbie mistake

Post 10 Toledo and tenchi both disagree with nolynch

Post 17 tenchi attacks hero for not placing a 2nd vote on someone.

post 20 hero overreacts to tenchi's vote and accusation.

post 24 Artem goodposting

post 28 CJMiller with an epic bandwagoning

post 29 my alter ego steps up and votes CJ due to epic bandwagon. Woot consensus across players!

Post 35 toledo doing a lot of agreeing and not much analysis. Post 35 is a decent sized post which, in

it's entirety, says 'I agree with the status quo'

Post 36 Feers has me totally confused. Saying all the right things. Head says exemplar townie but gut

says too perfect. zz wifom.

Post 37 Bizarre that Hero joined in August 2008 and is playing his first game now. Still, not scummy.

Admitted his mistake, rare for scum. Is definitely overly defensive, both in highlighting it and in

providing a wealth of reasons. Not necessarily scummy, more nervous, I think..

Post 38 Ah, Freer is experienced, that explains my lack of reading in post 36.

Post 39 Bit over the top scumhunting from tenchi, style is very confrontational.

Post 45 - Freers has a slight contradiction. Says he is using a random number generator to pick a

target, then since it was CJ he changed it to a FoS

to better show what I think of him.

The

obvious reason not to vote is to not get close to a lynch, but although he mentions that, he also says

it addresses what he thinks of him, making a judgement, not a random judgement. Minor contradiction,

but it's there.

Post 46 zz kiku picked up on it right away. Good post.

Post 51 toledo is either making a rash townie move himself or he's scummy. He's pushing a wagon without

adding anything.

Post 54 Hero keeps making me uneasy. Lots of defense, pissweak attacks. Is voting the obvious target,

his attack on CJ is littered with excuses for him (fence-sitting). 'Not enough in the game for definite

decisions' is scummy - obviously true, but only scum care about appearing aggressive.

Post 55 Hero attacks which is good, but fence-sits which is bad.

Post 60 Possible link between Freers and Tenchi. Feeres doesn't respond to kiku's point from post 46 at

all. He doesn't address the random vs judgement issue. He also continues to make a case about CJ being

an inexperienced mafia that was pretty weak.

Post 62 Toledo echoes my Feeres is odd sentiment. Interesting. Pretty good post, actually.

Post 64 Possible connection between Hero and Hockeyruler. Hockeyruler has his big analysis post. The

first point is obvious, of course the votes on Hero started as random. Dismisses the case on Hero

dramatically quickly. Pushes the wagon on CJ again without much reason, although doesn't vote him.

Post 66 kiku picks up on a poor post by my alter-ego. I understand what he said by 'no danger of being

lynched' but nonetheless it's a silly thing to say.

Post 70ish - flare up between Tenchi and Hero. Lots of posturing, not much analysis. Hard to get a

read. Still feel that Hero comes off somewhat dicey.

Post 77 Artem goodpost. Pity he got killed.

Post 82 Unsatisfactory answer from Feeres.

Post 86 Kiku with a goodpost. I'm sure a scum would be more likley to lurk/fencesit or push a wagon

than try to start one on a pretty quiet member. I think she genuinely feels Feeres slip was scummy and

is pushing it, top townpoints for Kiku. (also helped by the fact that CJ copped it and was town - her

post couldnt be directing heat away form a scumbuddy.)

Post 88 Hockey is moved to join on Feeres. Interesting.

Post 89 Hero massive defence of Feeres. That's a turn up for the books. Would he be so obvious in

defending a scumbuddy? Possible, I guess. Still thinking about the possibile connection @ post 64, it

could be some distancing by Hockey and Hero - each take seperate sides on the issue.

Post 90 Hockey continues attacking Feeres and Hero. I think it's less likely it's distancing.

Posts 91-115 No notes for a while, watching it unfold. The key themes are that Feeres is not seemingly

understanding or acknowledging his contradiction. Hockey is a lot of puff without much power. CJ is not

exactly cultured in his responses, Kiku is pretty pro-town, Hero is defensive and scummy, Tenchi is

overly aggressive, Artem rocks, I'm essentially not even in the game.

Post 121 Artem goodpost. RIP my little sense-making IC buddy. Would only add that in addition ot game

setup slips (and rolefishing) there are also 'buddy slips' - the scum have a vested interest in one

other person (scumbuddy) which sometimes leads to mistakes. And NK choices too.
Attacks me for lurking - if he reads this post he'll know I've answered his claims - I AM LURKING NO

MORE MY BROTHER!


ASIDE -- At this point I guess I should be looking at who Artem found suspicious. I had originally

assumed he was killed just because he was an IC, but he's making some excellent pro-town posts and they

could well be pointing the finger at people who were just a little to suspicious of him. At the moment,

he's poinging ot CJ (town), SH=me (town - you don't have ot take my word for it of course) and Feeres -

one of my biggest suspects. Will have to watch to see if this develops.


Post 131 Tenchi goodpost

Post 133 Hockey highly doubts that CJ is mafia but asks if we can lynch for unhelpfulness. This is odd.

1) CJ DOES look like mafia and 2) if you highly doubt it, there's no reason to lynch someone. Worrying.

post 136 might have to go back on previous point - cj bloody irritating.

post 140ish - OK, here's the hammer. So, the people involved are Tenchi with the hammer, pretty

intense. Hockey with the primary 'I don't care if he's mafia, lets get him anyway' style and Hero with

the 'OMG HAMMAH' post.
Tenchi - very surprised he hammered given post 131. So ten posts ago he's saying we need to take our

time, now he's hammering. I don't like that at all.
Hockey - Main reason I don't like it is 'I highly doubt CJ is mafia but...' I would have thought most

people WOULD think he's mafia, and even if you did have your doubts it seems very odd to knock him off.

Plus he didn't hammer.

Post 144 More possible links between Hero and Hockey - Hero puts most of the blame on Tenchi.

Post 151 Tenchi admits a quickhammer mistake, easy to do after a townflip, but at least he did it.

Post 152 Toledo defends Feeres in an odd way, because Feeres didn't vote for CJ. But CJ went from L-2

to lynched very quickly, Feeres didn't need to unvote. Also, Feeres wasn't suspected for not voting CJ,

he was suspected for his slip. I don't follow Toledo at all. He seemed to do the correct reasoning on

Artem's death but not follow it to it's logical conclusion - the only person Artem suspected that isn't

confirmed town is Feeres. (And my alter-ego for lurking, but the guy wasn't lurking, he was absent

completely.)

Post 153 Hero decentpost. Wishywashy conclusions everywhere though zzz.

Post 155 badpost Feeres. Why attack Hero for voting CJ to L-2 when 2 others quickhammered. Bizarre

post.

Poast 157 'This is extremely scummy, enough to warrant a..... FoS' Hooray limp conclusions You know

FoS does literally nothing apart from announcing in bold text that you suspect someone?

Post 163 Don't know what to think about tenchi not regretting lynching a townie. It's certainly

impolitic, I'm not sure if it's scummy.

Post 165ish This looks to me like a townie flareup. Both going at each other. I think, looking at this

dispute in a vacuum, without going back over my notes, Hero has the better of it, slightly. So I think

Tenchi looks a little more scummy. but to be honest, it looks to me like both are tunnelvisioned and

both are town.

Post 166 Hockey with a pretty good post. Explains the lunch of CJ in detail and pretty reasonably.

Post 167 don't like Tenchi's I need to chill/I have my eye on you. I don't sense much analysis or

conviction.

Post 169 kiku awesomepost. Well - she asks if she's the only one who saw it, and she's certainly the

only one who reacted to it, but I SAW IT TOO!!! GOGO KIKU!!

Post 170 Hero makes some good points about the lynch of CJ and Hockey but overreacts to Tenchi - more

feeling about a townie vs townie omgus battle. Well, actually he made a bad misrep of Tenchi, Tenchie

didn't say he'd lynch someone over town, that was poor.

Post 171-2 Tenchi lot of bluster.

Post 173 Toledo deflects kiku's excellent criticism, weakly conceeding but saying feerer wasn't

dismissed from all suspicion (although he did earlier say 'cleared). He then says it has to be Tenchi

or Hero. A Toledo/Feerer scumteam wins the game if one gets lynched and then the other. This definitely

worries me.

post 174 ugh, please get quote tags right. It's really ahrd to follow. To his credit, he acknowledged

the mistake he made in 170 and makes some goodp oints on Tenchi.

post 175 Wow, my idiot alter-ego FoS's kiku, probably the most pro-town person in my mind. /wrists.

post 177 Feeres DOESN'T push the Hero vs Tenchi. Townpoints for him. Loses 10 points for hogwash FoS vs

vote reasoning afterwards - nothing wrong with voting people, unless it quicklynches them.

Post 181 Not quite, hockey - you actually made a pretty fair case about voting him no matter what. Plus

there is a process others may have wanted him to go thorugh - claiming etc.

Post 185 Toledo rolefishes something hard and misrepresents the debate pretty fiercly. I do not like

this post at all. Scummy as.

Post 197 Interesting analysis by Feeres. I don't agree about his assumption that Artem was killed

because he WASN'T connected. I think either it was purely IC or it was because Artem was onto

something. Hard to say which.

Post 198 This morbid 'I expect my lynch' thing from Tenchi is irritating me. It's just Wifom all over

and doens't progress the conversation. If you're town, stick up for yourself - it never helps the town

to lynch a townie - DO NOT GO GENTLE INTO THAT DARK NIGHT!

Post 206 Feeres brings up posts 152, 173, 185 - all listed above as notes and all finding Toledo

scummy. GOODPOST! Unfortunately - Feeres was the one who was defended, so that takes some of the shine

off this line of questioning.

Post 209 Hockey lurking and appearing at mention of his name a bit. I don't like that. Also defends

Tenchi, the scummier of the two arguers and the one who he helped quicklynch town. Mmm.

Post 211 Since Feeres lost his notes he's been a far better player. However, I disagree with his

conclusions. Lynching lurkers is generally bad - you need to pull them out into the light and if they

are unresponsive you need to get them replaced. Lynching inactive townies loses games. Concludes with a

fence sit. ZZ.

Post 216 Hero getting steamed for a while now, we can totally do without the caps/what the hells and

swearing. You're just postulating to the world at large. It's a civil game about logic, reason and

socail skills, not a shoutfest. And then we lynch someone

Post 217 <3 kiku. Pure townpost.

Post 219 The word is inattentive. This is about the 17,000,000th time I've seen unattentive, so grammar

nazi finally cracked.

Post 222 let me help you hockey! Post 133 was where you said you highly doubted he was mafia.

Post 224 KEEP BRINGING THE LOVE KIKU!!! I WILL HAVE YOUR BABIES FOR GOODPOSTINGS!!

post 226 Toledo pops up to defend himself after lurking about. He also WIFOMs his role-fishing hard. Yukku. Dead poor defence as well at the endo f the post. I was trying to show that Hero could be a cop? Off..

post 227 kiku can't have my babies any more. Not scummy, but I disagree- when you put someone at L-1 you do so only if you have no problem with them being lynched, in my opinion, because anyone could come along and finish them off.

post 229 Tenchi badpost. Although technically Hero's 'one of Tenchi + Hockey must be scum' means that the town should lynch one than the other, what would almost certainly happen is if tenchi townflips, there would be much LESS suspicion on Hockey because Hero was so wrong about the first one. Also saying the person you may well be scumbuddies with isn't scummy to you and not providing any reason doesn't help anything. And whether he expected you to hammer or not, he voted to L-1 and gave a strong argument to a lynch whether or not CJ was town.


post 233 Don't like the declaration of an ok lynch. Especially with the replacement coming in. Just no reason to post that at this time. Hyper lynch is odd.. and to kick start it without town consensus is bizarre.

Post 240 I agree actually. Maybe it's because I'm not used to hyperclaiming, but I don't like the idea.

Post 250 Asks for a prod on Hockey and bingo there he is 3 hours later. Lurky and suspicious.

[SerialClergyman]

Irritatingly, looks like some formatting thing made that bigger than it needed to be.

OK. So to my conclusions.

As you might be able to understand, after 2200+ words and reading 10 pages, I'm a little typed out, but I owe it to you all to come ot some form of conclusion from my notes.

I think that the Tenchi-Hero debate has dominated your(collective) thinking to an extraordinary degree. They are both tunnelvisioned on each other and everyone is kind of getting drawn in and not opening their possibilities to other players - which suits scum fine. Even if, best case scenario, one of them is scum, we'd have to risk 2 lynches to make sure of getting them, and we STILL would have one roaming around. And if we're wrong, and the scum are just letting them argue because they're both convinced the other is scum, we lose the game, 2 failed lynches gg.

And so - I would recommend getting away from both players. I doubt scum would try to flog a dead horse and continue the same argument around and around, sticking their neck out so far. I think it's much more likely for the scum to be retreating.

And so - because it's difficult to pick the scummier out of hero and Tenchi, because of the reasons above relating to the game state, I suggest that we focus our attentions elsewhere.

To that end, my reads are:

Kiku - for the most part of the game has picked up on every logical inconsistency I have and pushed the right people about it. I am perfectly happy to assume she is town simply because of the usefulness of her posts and good observations.

Feeres - Started off as oneo f my no.1 suspects. Had the random vote slip. It's been covered, but I didn't like it when it happened. He also does some odd defending of Toledo and some odd attakcing of Hero. Since then he's gone down and posted a few better posts.

Hockey - Putting someone to L-1 is dicey. Not the same as a hammer, but it's dicey nonetheless. Saying 'I'm almost sure he's not mafia' when he was a real suspect is poor. Then forgetting about it is a lie/contradiction/mistake and that's poor. Arguing for the lynching of a town just due to annoyance is poor. His current behaviour seems typical of a scum letting another argument just flow on - but he's there when he's asked a question. active without participating (209 and 250.)
I think Hockey is looking like a very suspicious target.

Toledo - This is my number one suspect at the moment. Toledo flies under the radar, adds fuel to other arguments without ever putting his neck on the line. He has actively rolefished in this game and was barely challenged on it. He has made several suspicious posts (see 35, 51, 152, 173, 185, 226. See my above notes for my analysis of these posts.)

Quite simply, I'm amazed at how much Toledo has gotten away with that is just plain dodgy. I think there are few people who don't have some taint thrown on them, but I think the case against Toledo is easily the strongest, and doesn't revolve around one incident (the quicklynch) but actually several posts over the course of the game.

vote toledo

Please give me some responses to my conclusions and lets see if we can open this game up a bit.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Official Vote Count

Tenchi - 2 (Hero764, Toledo88)

Hero764 - 1 (Tenchi)
Toledo88 - 1 (SerialClergyman)

Not Voting - 3 (Hockeyruler, Feeres, kikuchiyo)

4 to Lynch

[Hero764]

I think that the Tenchi-Hero debate has dominated your(collective) thinking to an extraordinary degree. They are both tunnelvisioned on each other and everyone is kind of getting drawn in and not opening their possibilities to other players - which suits scum fine. Even if, best case scenario, one of them is scum, we'd have to risk 2 lynches to make sure of getting them, and we STILL would have one roaming around. And if we're wrong, and the scum are just letting them argue because they're both convinced the other is scum, we lose the game, 2 failed lynches gg.

I wouldn't even call it a debate. I ask Tenchi a few questions, he tries to avoid by pointing out some sort of fault in my reasoning, and then I respond by pointing out that he is full of shit(which he was), and then this continues as he denies it. There were a few other things in there, but that's really what it boils down to.

And so - I would recommend getting away from both players. I doubt scum would try to flog a dead horse and continue the same argument around and around, sticking their neck out so far. I think it's much more likely for the scum to be retreating.

If scum always did what was likely for scum to do, then scum hunting would be a breeze. And can you point to an instance where Tenchi stuck his neck out?

Kiku - for the most part of the game has picked up on every logical inconsistency I have and pushed the right people about it. I am perfectly happy to assume she is town simply because of the usefulness of her posts and good observations.

I'll agree, but I can't be 100% sure. I've read a few games on this site and on more than one of them the more helpful players ended up being scum.

Feeres - Started off as oneo f my no.1 suspects. Had the random vote slip. It's been covered, but I didn't like it when it happened. He also does some odd defending of Toledo and some odd attakcing of Hero. Since then he's gone down and posted a few better posts.

I still don't know what any of you were getting at on his so called Day 1 contradiction. I don't really have much to add to this though.

Hockey - Putting someone to L-1 is dicey. Not the same as a hammer, but it's dicey nonetheless. Saying 'I'm almost sure he's not mafia' when he was a real suspect is poor. Then forgetting about it is a lie/contradiction/mistake and that's poor. Arguing for the lynching of a town just due to annoyance is poor. His current behaviour seems typical of a scum letting another argument just flow on - but he's there when he's asked a question. active without participating (209 and 250.)
I think Hockey is looking like a very suspicious target.

Oh you've got to be kidding. He's yet to answer my 4(3?) questions that I asked of him, and the fact that he denies ever saying CJMiller was probably town makes him look all the scummier, don't you think. These reasons are far better than simply his active lurking.

Toledo - This is my number one suspect at the moment. Toledo flies under the radar, adds fuel to other arguments without ever putting his neck on the line. He has actively rolefished in this game and was barely challenged on it. He has made several suspicious posts (see 35, 51, 152, 173, 185, 226. See my above notes for my analysis of these posts.)

I agree with the basis of what you've said about Toledo, although I've interpreted him as simply a new player who acts like he knows his shit(especially during the start) but doesn't feel comfortable enough to actually get in the middle of a discussion. I agree that he's suspicious though. No. 3 for me right now.

Conclusion: I think I can understand your reasons for not voting Tenchi(although hopefully I've cleared them up) but you have no reason to let Hockey off right now. He's been acting much scummier than Toledo, and voting Toledo over him is simply something I don't agree with.

[Hero764]

Welcome to game btw

[Hockeyruler]

I don't have time to go over everything Sergy has written, and I don't have time to properly quote hero on his objections over me again. So I'll just list out my whole... thought cycle.

CJ acted very inexperienced and it wasn't very helpful.

This behavior doesn't necesarily seem scummy but is very easy to imitate.

After CJ posted complete nonsense I guess I over reacted and voted.

I DO NOT regret the lynch (well I mean I wouldn't do it again, but with what I knew then) His posts weren't helpful and when it gets down to the wire with several players who have seemed townish the whole game, and then CJ, its going to be CJ getting voted. The one thing I do regret over that whole incident was how fast it was over with.

[Hero764]

CJ acted very inexperienced and it wasn't very helpful.

Ok.

This behavior doesn't necesarily seem scummy but is very easy to imitate.

But you said you highly doubted he was mafia, now you thought he was mafia imitating scum?

After CJ posted complete nonsense I guess I over reacted and voted.

Terrible defense, but w/e. I'm more concerned about you trying to justify killing someone who you "highly doubt is mafia", which you haven't really addressed yet.

I DO NOT regret the lynch (well I mean I wouldn't do it again, but with what I knew then) His posts weren't helpful and when it gets down to the wire with several players who have seemed townish the whole game, and then CJ, its going to be CJ getting voted. The one thing I do regret over that whole incident was how fast it was over with.

With what you knew then? You said you highly doubted he was mafia, so you would've known that then. You do not regret lynching a probable townie. What?

Need more activity guys. This is pathetic compared to what we had.

[Tenchi]

I'll be here. Gimme a moment. I'll be responding.

[kikuchiyo]

Sorry, I have been busy with RL. I take offense to the "have my babies" type comments, btw. I appreciate being recognized for my helpfulness, but I almost feel as though you are trying to win me over. At least you have akcnowledged some suspicion of me. That said, if the "hyper-claim" is not a good idea that's fine, I have read it in a couple games and it seemed like a good idea, however, I understand the concern. To me, the pros outweigh the cons, but I'm not going to fight against what seems like sound reasoning.

I am suspicious of Toledo, but I have trouble letting Tenchi slide for his play. He said himself that we should lynch him if we don't believe him, and I think it may be best to follow his advice. It seems wifomic, I know, but I feel comments like that make people more suspicious. I would like to here more from Toledo before I make a decision. I also would like to see more of a concrete response from Hockey.

I don't like the idea of "abandoning" both Tenchi and Hero, at this point I am not getting a scum read from Hero, so I don't think this is an either/or situation. Tenchi has displayed the most scummy behavior.

[SerialClergyman]

Err..

@ kiku:
So kiku, my apologies, I had intended the notes to be just my own thinking but then I realised I was sayinga lot of strategy stuff and analysis stuff in them so I thought I'd publish them for reactions. I hope you didn't take offense on a personal level, just a game level - I understand 'having your babies' isn't exactly an appropriate comment.

As for the game level - read into it what you like. I think you're town, you don't have to think I'm town. A good deal of the time, I note my reactions to a dodgy post (rolefishing for example, or Toledo's odd defence of Feeres just after N1) and then a few posts down you echo that reaction. When you have the frustration of not being able to raise your concerns because your'e replacing late in the game, that sort of thing is always good to see. However, I understand I haven't done much to prove MY townie-ness, so think what you will.

@Hockey - I can understand that upon revision, your reasons for voting CJ make sense. What I think has everyone incensed (including myself) is that as it happened, you did NOT seem to have that line of reasoning. For example, your 133 post did not sit well with me at all. You said that you were almost sure he was town. Well - that's an odd thing to say, given that you have said often since then that you didn't know he was town and thought there was a good chance he was scum. Because lynching a townie, even an unhelpful one, is always far worse than lynching scum.

I don't want to get into the debate too much, I'm just pointing you to the distinction - it's not that I find your current story necessarily unbelieveable, it's that I do not think you ACTUALLY ACTED on that story - and there are posts from around there which suggest that. Not to mention the speed with which he was lynched is automatically a problematic sign and no amount of 'I guess I acted too fast, he bugged me, whoops' type reasoning can totally wipe that away (although I grant you that it's better than denying there's a problem.)

@Hero - Hi. Thanks for your welcome. Before I get onto much gameplay stuff, I have to say your style of writing really doesn't endear me to your case. Saying that someone is full of shit, TALKING IN CAPS, saying things like you gotta be kidding me - all of that stuff doesn't actually improve your case at all and only serves to make me not want to listen to you. Others will disagree with you, it can be frustrating. Time to man up, take a breath and find

reasons

. If you feel you have given plenty - make a summary case. If you feel there are unanswered questions, work out the most important ones and type them out again. Howling at the moon because you are sure you're correct is unhelpful.

At least that's my opinion - you can see in my notes it bugged me too. Maybe everyone else doesn't mind.

I'll address why I think we should avoid the Hero vs Tenchi argument later in this post, so bear with me and I'll just try to talk about the rest of your post.

Saying things like if scum always did what scum is supposed to do scumhinting would be easy, and sure she's helpful but sometimes helpful players end up being scum - doesn't hold much water. It's like the 'too townie' or 'too scummy' argument. Of course we are unable to be certain about someone - it's a game of incomplete information. But if you had someone who is acting town and someone who is acting scum, there's no point trying to work out if it's the odd time that the scummy person is town and the townie person is scum - you just have to go by the probabilities that scummy action = scum and townie action - town.

The Feeres day 1 thing is minor, but similar to Hockey's recent issue. Feeres said that he randomed a vote on a player, then changed it to an FoS because he was worried about how high the vote count was getting. In the same post, he ALSO said he was FoSing because he was suspicious of the player. So - a) which one is it? Is he suspicious or is he your random vote that you changed to an FoS purely to avoid stacking? b) if you are suspicious of a player, why random vote at all? Those questions were barely addressed by Feeres, and similarly to Hockey, even if his story changed to adapt ot the criticism and his CURRENT story makes sense, that's not how it went down according ot the post history. The reason why it's possibly scummy is that it heaped further suspicion on CJ while allowing him to distance himself (Oh no, that was a random vote, I wasn't pushing the wagon on a townie).

As for Hockey, no need to ask if I'm kidding when I'm agreeing with you about his scummyness. There's no need to go over the points that have dragged on for ages without getting anywhere - I summarised the points you made against him and added more. I agree with most of the case against him.


@all - Allow me to expand upon my reasoning a bit re: Tenchi vs Hero.

Firstly - we need to lynch scum some time in the next 2 lynches or we lose the game. This is a very serious point that is NOT addressed by saying 'well, one of them has to be scum'. One of them absolutely does not have to be scum, and if indeed they are both town, focusing on the debate will lose us the game. Because we'll lynch one, see town, lynch the other and lose. There are currently 7 people alive in the game - trying to find scum by ignoring 5 players is highly unlikely to be successful.

Secondly - From the perspective of someone above the debate (you might challenge whether I can take that perspective, but given I had to read 100+ posts of it without being able to contribute, I think it's fair to say that) - it does NOT make sense for scum to be so tunnelvisioned on a player. Both Hero and Tenchi have had run ins from Day 1 onwards with each other. Hero asked me to find one example of Tenchi sticking his neck out - well, that's patently obvious! He is having a high-profile argument that is dominating the game! He is making statements like 'one of us are scum' and asking who his scum buddy is and talking about his imminent lynch. Now - I don't particularly like any of those points, I don't find them convincing, but there's no question that he is putting himself at a much higher profile than he needs to be.

For example - the major scumtell that Tenchi has at the moment was the quicklynch of CJ. Now, I'd submit to you that Hockey's L-1 vote and posts were very close ot that action in scummyness. But if you were scum, who would you rather be? Would you rather be Tenchi, putting it out there that he has a 50% chance of being scum, being high in the public eye, railing against someone who has support from other areas of the town? Or would you prefer to be Hero, going missing for 40 posts and only popping up with minor posts when he hears his name? The ACTIONS of both are similar, but the risk to Tenchi is MUCH greater, and I would suggest that his actions make more sense as town than as scum in that context. This is NOT to say I think he's pro-town or that I wouldn't consider him suspicious - just that from a scum perspective, his actions don't entirely add up, and I think that's a reason to widen the searchlight a little.

Thirdly - Lets say that it is highly unlikely that Hero and Tenchi are scum together with an incredible gambit. So that means a maximum of one of them is scum. There must still be one more scum out there. The only theory that makes any sense in this regard is Tenchi/Hockey scumteam. There's not much scope to focus on the lurking/scummy posts from other players if you are moulded into this viewpoint. For example, what happens if you Tenchi and he flips town? Where do you go from there? Hockey? That seems now reasonably unlikely. Hero could have just been a wrong townie. What about Feeres and Toldedo - could they be pairing each other? What about me (remember, my alter-ego lurked and posted some scummythings that were never touched.) And kiku - just quietly pointing out anything that might be regarded as a slip without ever drawing attention to herself? The point is - you have very little information. We need to have enough information at the end of this day to make at least one scum lynch out of 2, and a tenchi lynch now means we're guessing desperately on day 3 if he's town. By not persuing scummy behaviour elsewhere, we've let Toledo get away with SO MUCH SCUMMY BEHAVIOUR. We haven't explored any links between other players, haven't given any other player a chance to slip up. This is play that is entirely likely to lose us the game.

Fourthly - Power roles. I do not want to speculate too highly on what or who they are, but we know we have a 75% chance of having at least one pro-town power role. We need to give that person or persons a chance to do their job. Say we have a cop - lynching tenchi would make an investigation really difficult. Would you do Hockey? Well - Tenchi's flip town would mean Hockey is close ot cleared and Tenchi's flip scum would mean Hockey is close to damned. So not much point. Which other person would you investigate, as a cop? You

would have no idea

. You'd have to guess because we haven't explored other people, haven't put them under pressure. Same with a doctor - if Tenchi flipped town, who would you protect? Couldn't protect Hero.. would be tough to protect Hockey too. So where to go from there? You have a good chance of just wasting your protect on nothing.
I feel that if we lynched Toledo, for example, a cop would have an obvious choice and/or a doc would have a decent chance to block a kill. We could then go from there the next day.

Fifthly - Lets say we lynch Toledo and he townflips. Now, even ignoring power role findings if any, it's very difficult for a scumteam hockey/tenchi to escape. They'll be obvious suspects if toledo + another townie is killed. Now lets say he scumflips - we have opened up a whole new facet of the game and can start ot make much more accurate guesses on who is teamed with who. Whereas if we lynch tenchi and he scumflips we're fine, but if he townflips we're in guessland. I think starting with the others and THEN working to tenchi-hockey will give us more information if we're wrong.

Those are all reasons to turn our attention away from the dominating post war. I guess the final reason is that not much of substance is coming out of it. Hero is very frustrated and keeps pushing similar points, Tenchi feels he has defnding himself as much as necessary and there's an impasse. If we really find nothing else scummy we can come back to this impasse and simply take a side, but there's no reason to make that decision without analysing some of the other people around.

However, I should poitn out I'm open to other lynch ideas (although I do think Toledo has gotten away from you all - please do check those posts I mentioned in my last analysis and see if you can come up with a defence for him).
I just think it's vitallyi mportant we starte getting some dialog that doesn't fall within the 'tenchi quicklynched' paradigm.

[Tenchi]

Ok. Better go out with a bang then. I'll try to do a similar PBPA of the whole game, ignoring Hero's posts. I still feel he is scum, but I will try that approach.

[SerialClergyman]

Hi Tehcni -

I think that's a good idea. I'm not at all convinced of your innocence, but assuming a perfect world where we come down on your side and lynch scumHero - we'd still need to know his partner. So even if you think that Hero is scum - there's still a reason for you to persue other people.

The other thing I'd add is that if you are town, you're in a dire predicament. The obvious scumteam is you and Hockey, and it's going to be almost impossible to lynch 2 people without at least one of them being you or hockey without some cop innocent verdict or similar. Even I, who am arguing that we don't lynch you today, would almost certainly conceede to lynching you or Hockey tomorrow if we didn't find scum elsewhere.

So if you are town, your BEST chance of staying alive by FAR is to find someone out of the remaining pool of players (ie, not hero, you or hockey) that we lynch and flip scum. If that happens, we reassess, the game shifts and you save your life and possibly the town's. Even if you are 100% convinced that Hero is scum, you still have a chance of achieving that goal because scumHero must have a partner somewhere. And I think a lot of the doubters, like kiku and maybe hero, would begin to think a lot differently of you if feeres or toledo scumflipped.

[Tenchi]

KIKUCHIYO

0 - Votes for me for not paying attention to her gender
1 - Feeres confrontation ensues. K starts questioning on FoS and Random voting thing.
2 - More questions for Feeres case
3 - Thinks SHTown is is odd and implies that L-2 should be considered as dangerous. Finds early CJMIller wagon suspicious.
4 - Chainsaws me in my line of questioning with CJMiller. Accusing me of having a biased approach to the CJMiller conflict. Votes Feeres.
5 - Repeats part of the Feeres case. Notes Hero is misrepping and defending Feeres.
6 - More clarifications to the Feeres case. (Reviewing it, I still would give Feeres the benefit of the doubt on the whole thing.)
7 - More Feeres interrogation.
8 - I note something wrong here. I think its just a misrep/misunderstanding of the events. I feel that Feeres rolled first, then checked the thread, then figured out he shouldnt be doing that, then mentioned the whole series of events I just said in this sentence.
9 - Gives up on the Feeres case (?)

=== DAY 2 ===
10 - FoS: Toledo for clearing Feeres upon lynch of CJMiller. Votes for me
11 - Questions SH/SC for the FoS on her due since SH/SC felt an FoS is necessary. (I had no problem with K's vote. I actually got weirded out with SH/SC there)
12 - Folds to SH/SC. FoSes me instead. Stands firm on making me the Lynch of the Day. Notes Toledo as suspicious for clearing somebody isntead of thinking whodunit.
13 - Notes Hero's fallacy on reasons why we have an L-1. Notes the case on me is clear, and that we should start looking at other people.
14 - Catches Hero implying that "we (me and Hero) might not be scum together". Asks Herowhy are we focusing on me and Hockey and not Toledo? (Noting that Toledo cleared Hero earlier)
15 - Clarifies 13, the L-1 fallacy.
16 - Suggests hyperclaiming (which looks tempting but actually is a double edged sword upon closer examination). Repeats that I should be the Lunch of the Day. Suggests we don't lynch early wait for the replacement.
17 - Explains the hyperclaiming gambit. Fails to note the scum POV of what could the information do for them.
18 - Folds the hyperclaiming argument. Repeats suspicion of Toledo. Thinks that I am scum between Hero vs Tenchi

Enlightening thoughts:

1. Kikuchiyo and Hero CANNOT be scum together.
2. The only negatives I can think for Kikuchiyo is that she chainsawed me early in the game in defense of CJMiller.
3. I think she's protown.
4. She's a bit jumpy on small things, but that could go either way. Start checking if she comes up with BS cases (the first Feeres case I felt was bad).

[Tenchi]

...

So if you are town, your BEST chance of staying alive by FAR is to find someone out of the remaining pool of players (ie, not hero, you or hockey) that we lynch and flip scum. If that happens, we reassess, the game shifts and you save your life and possibly the town's. Even if you are 100% convinced that Hero is scum, you still have a chance of achieving that goal because scumHero must have a partner somewhere. And I think a lot of the doubters, like kiku and maybe hero, would begin to think a lot differently of you if feeres or toledo scumflipped.

I'm on it as we speak. Oh god, can I vote for you? As president?

YES WE CAN!

[Tenchi]

FEERES

0 - Controversial post which was attacked by Kikuchiyo later. Notes both sides on the CJMIller proposal of No Lynch. But sides with "go lynch". Mentions Hero has a passive-aggressive play (very early on).
1 - Mentions he is not used to the random-voting early-game culture in MS.net.
2 - Explains post 0. I'm noting why he didn't FoS Hero as well if he found him also suspicious.
3 - More explanation for him suspecting CJMiller.
4 - Explains Post 0. Asks if there's a recommended way for random voting.
5 - Accuses of K applying spin/ misunderstanding to his posts. Explains Post 0 for the nth time. Notes that Hockeyruler pushes him that he should have just voted CJMiller instead of the FoS.
6 - Notes that Hockey piggybacked on Kikuchiyo's case
7 - Explains Post 0 again.
8 - Notes that people were FoSing without explicit reasons and that he can do the same.
9 - WIFOM Talk.
10 - Explains his actions on Post 0.
11 - I think this perfectly explains, from Feeres's point of view what he was thinking when he did the random voting part. It also summarizes most of the discussion on Post 0.
12 - Confronts Hero for not unvoting CJMIller at L-2.

=== DAY 2 ===
13 - Takes middle of the road on Hero vs Tenchi.
14 - Supports's SH/SC's case that K shouldn't have voted for me early on D2. Explains. Questions Hero again for not unvoting CJMiller at L-2.
15 - Speculates on why Artem was killed. Shows his scumlist. Notes K is aggressive. Hero has a "town vibe" and Hockey and SH/SC as under the radar and pro-town. Notes tha I "lead us in to lynches with some of his posts, implying this and implying that". Toledo "is looking scummish as well for me, he's mostly been just going with the flow but not really done that much".
16 - Explains supicions of Toledo. I'm noting more word-feeding from Hero here as Hero asked Feeres why hy thought HockeyRuler was scum. Gave Hero as an example of a lynch I'm leading (he referred to it as past tense though) but mistakenly identified that I ever implied that I lead his lynch.
17 - Takes his suspicions on me back and promises to review. Defends Hockey that Hockey could have not predicted the hammer to come after 30 minutes (which I agree with). Explains Hockey's other stances on why Hockey voted CJMiller (in which I agree with). Asks about scum Nighttalk on D0.
18 - Excuses himself from the game for the weekend

Enlightening thoughts

1. I have yet to see a firm stance from Feeres. He has been the arbiter and middle of the road guy.
2. I still need more activity since most of his posts involve him defending himself and doing his "job" (see #1).
3. Other than that, I think he is also pro-town. Even more pro-town than Kikuchiyo.
4. The ironic thing is I don't get why Hero is on top of his pro-town list.
5. Person to watch if he continues to be the middle of the road guy and lacks the aggression mid-late game. Watch for wishy-washiness also.

[SerialClergyman]

I'm on it as we speak. Oh god, can I vote for you? As president?

YES WE CAN!

No - I'm Australian

[Tenchi]

0 - Random vote for Hero
1 - Agrees and adds to the stance on habing a "Go Lynch"
2 - Fluff argument
3 - Echoes Artem's concerns of Hero being overly cautious with early votes
4 - Passive agressive behaviour noted toward CJMiller. FoSes Hero and CJMiller
5 - Links to the numbers Wiki page
6 - EBWOP
7 - Decides that CJMiller is a "rash and not-so-careful newb scum". See the irony here?
8 - Finds Feeres odd for the random vote issue. Mentions that I seem to be targetting Hero from the beginning of this game (but can't fault me for suspceting Hero at that time). Prods SH and Hockey
9 - V/LA
10 - Notes the Feeres case and notes that CJMiller is constantly OMGUssing


=== DAY 2 ===
11 - Doesn't feel bad for killing CJ. Eliminated Feeres as a suspect outright. This method of elimination tells me the Toledo is a newbie. Also speculates on NK thinking SH/SC or Feeres as scum. Reading this post some more just makes me think that too much thinking has been put into the NK to the point that I think that he is scum trying to point fingers on how the NK can be interpreted.
12 - Clarifies his post 11.
13 - Takes back that Feeres is clear. Tries to compormise with K. Mentions he is forced to believe either Hero or I is scum.
14 - Defends me. Wonders if Hero is a cop (major role-fishing). Says he's not voting becuase he's not convinced anyone is scum, though he has suspects.
15 - Reiterates that Hero and I are on top of his scum list for obvious reasons. Kikuchiyo and SH/SC are "clean". Feeres is "clean" except for the D1 discussion. Neutral on Hockey
16 - Thinks Hockey is my theoretical scum partner but says he can't decide on him specifically at that point. He votes for me since he is justified for voting anyone else
17 - Questions Hero on his statement that one of me or Hockey is scum. Reiterates his question on Post 14.
18 - Echoes my stance on the Hyperclaim issue.


Elightening Thoghts:

1. Feeres CANNOT be scum with HERO
2. If Feeres is Scum, Hockey is his probable partner. See # 16. I haven't done a review on Hockey yet but I am noting the lack of interaction between them.
3. Very "in" when it comes to the "hot" issues. Tries to scumhunt but then becomes wishy washy on providing solid reasons.
4. Right now, I don't even know what he thinks of Feeres. He folded when Kikuchiyo confronted him the clearing on 11.
5. Rolefisher. And he did it twice. See 14 and 17.
6. Big speculation on the NK. (See 11.) I can't put a finger on it but the whole speculative post just doesn't seem right. I suggest somebody to review that for me.
7. Highly Probable Scum.

With that,

UNVOTE

[Tenchi]

EBWOP: Toledo votes for me since he is NOT justified for voting anyone else.

[Tenchi]

TOLEDO

8. Watch if continues to be unnecessarily middle of the road and echoing people's thoughts. Watch for piggybacking also. Watch rolefishing. Cross-check interaction with Hockey.

[Tenchi]

I totally messed up that one... the first was KIKUCHIYO, then I made one for FEERES. Then the untitled one is TOLEDO.

Gotta sleep now.