Crackers! Mafia -- Game Over. See page 50

[Adel]

˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚

votecount as of post 974

_{with 9 alive, 5 will lynch before deadline}

˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚

¬forbiddanlight:

3

:vollkan, destructor, Korts
vollkan:

2

:DrippingGoofball, forbiddanlight
Elmo:

1

:roflcopter


No Lynch:

none

not voting:

3

:Elmo, populartajo, Raging Rabbit

˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚˚

Day 3's deadline is December 26th at 12:28 (UTC)

Countdown timer to deadline

[roflcopter]

I would obviously vote for him over being lynched. That would make four. You could easily make him the deadline lynch by keeping your vote on him, I think. Why the switch?

real lynches are much preferable to deadline lynches

[destructor]

Wtf is with the vollkan and Elmo hate? Maybe they are scum, but I'm not seeing anything close to a compelling case on either. The only player I've seen really post something that resembles a case on vollkan is FL, and I disagree with just about all of what she posted in it.

Tajo, what are you thinking? Can you give us a player by player run down?

rofl, I'm not getting what you're saying about real lynches. Yours is the only vote on Elmo. Do you think his lynch is likely today?

Korts, why is Elmo scum?

[populartajo]

Des, Ill try to do one soon.
TBH, I had at some point of my replacing reread, the intuition that this Yos-Vollkan debate was something very illogical and very weird. Ill reread that again to find out why I had that feeling.
This is pretty much between Vollkan and FL. With the incredible amount of townie reads I have in this game, I think that one is prob scum if not both.
For the record, I disagree with the Elmo hate. Rolf and Korts, explain pluz.

[Raging Rabbit]

Reread FL and tajo, which enforced my gut feeling that they're the two scummiest players, excluding Korts. FL is looking worse - for her weird approach to Yos, coming in to the game d3 and starting to comment on d2 of all things - and doing so by stating opinions on lots of things with almost no questions or attempts to discern anything further - odd for a replacement, like she wanted to keep to avoid confrontation. Bad case on DGB for what I actually consider a towntell, and pure OMGUS on Vollkan. I'd vote, but I don't want her at L-1 where she could be effectively hammered by a kill.

FOS: FL

, I'd like a claim please.

[Elmo]

The thought occurred of there being a SK out there while Korts is mafia fakeclaiming. It seems a pretty bizarre move, though. I think Guard + Kison kills follow his stated suspicions, Yos2 less so.

I forgot this detail, but I think it's important: the mafia are likely to have some way of stopping the vig/SK kills, be it doc or roleblocker. I think, based on the way Yos wasn't protected, it's more likely they have a roleblocker. It's important that we don't rely on Korts being able to kill, though. Even if his kill fails, we won't know why unless we lynch scum. In fact, the only reason to keep him alive is if we think either a) the mafia has a doc/RB but we will lynch them within the next two (?) days or b) the mafia can't stop Korts killing. The doc/RB is subtly different, because the doc cannot self-protect.

And I really don't like the way Korts jumped on me with basically zero case. I don't think he has one, and I'd be entirely unsurprised if we don't get an answer out of him for a while on that, even a summary. He then jumps right onto FL; okay, he wouldn't know anything about her alignment as SK, but I didn't think the part he quoted is as persuasive as it'd need to be consistent with his leap onto her. Those two votes seem very opportunistic, and that sorta "anyone dead but me" attitude seems something I'd imagine coming from an SK.

I'm also wondering why the mafia kill for today hasn't arrived. I suppose that it's purely speculation that maybe it landed on Korts. I feel they would probably have killed by now, given the deadline. Maybe they're waiting for some reason, but I can't think of any.

I think all other things being equal, FL is a better lynch than Vollkan, because she's said she's behind, we have less content from Sens to work with, etc. I'm struggling to reconcile her post where she basically says she doesn't mind just being lynched with her being scum; maybe she's playing the WIFOM, but I really feel that scum-FL would be scrambling for survival. I'm not wild about her position on Yos, but I feel it's hard to blame her for it given the timing of her replacing in. My main problem, really, is that town-FL doesn't always look very townish - the only game I can remembered skim-reading, I was convinced she was scum and was lynched as vanilla town, although town won. I don't know much about scum-FL other than she got past Incognito in WOMAFIA. I'm more worried about meta-ing Vollkan at this point.. I'm probably going to go read a couple games instead of typing / rereading more.

I think at some point, I'm just going to have to close my eyes and pick someone who seems to fall in the 'least townish' category. Which kind of sucks.

Why'd you think Tajo's scum, Rabbit? He seems townish to me. Not contributing tonnes, but what is there reads town. I suppose that haven't seen him as scum, and I only played with him once, like a year ago in a newbie game. But I'm more confident about him than a bunch of other people.

[roflcopter]

i'm cool with an fl lynch too, y'all know where i stood on sens. not gonna put my vote there for the same reason as rr says, so there can't be a quickhammer-by-way-of-mafia-kill

i'll give some details on why i think elmo is scum tonight or tomorrow, i've just spent the day at the funeral of someone very close to me and am not up to that right now

[vollkan]

Loosely, getting people lynched is persuading other people, and generally (imo) the best way to do that is to talk directly to potential voters. I would have thought that you would have taken that opportunity, conversing with FL, to try and get her vote on Yos2 instead of talking about BM. I don't currently take issue with you case on Yos, but it seems odd to me that you talked about something essentially tangental. If I were you, I think Yos2 would have been uppermost in my mind, and I would definitely have tried to persuade her to vote Yos, if you see what I mean. Do you follow roughly my train of thought? Basically, you don't seem to have actively sought a wagon on him, and you can contrast that with what Des did by e.g. asking people to comment on his case, and this is especially noticeable in the subject you chose to talk about with FL. I'm curious why you didn't do that.

You're over-complicating things. FL made a post which, in my view, was scummy (or, more accurately, needed to be examined very closely) for the way it attacked DGB. Yos was my priority, sure, but I wasn't going to let myself get blind-sided when FL was also potential scum. I don't see "attacking FL" and "building Yos's lynch" as mutually exclusive, and my assumption was that FL would be reading up and come to grips with the case on Yos anyway, but at that time I was interested in scratching the DGB attack.

Volk, assuming FL is scum, what's her motive for saying essentially "DGB OMGUSsed"? If there is a consensus on what OMGUS means, it seems silly to misrepresent what she was doing in an attempt to make a case on her. Offhand, I'd agree that her stance is probably incorrect, but I don't see the leap between "bad logic" and "scum". Yes, it's harder to present good logic as scum, but I really don't think bad logic alone is indicative of much. And I don't currently draw much more than that from what you referenced.

The start of this might sound repetitive, but I need it to explain my position clearly:

The word "OMGUS" refers to a specific action (attacking somebody because they are attacking you), which is scummy for a specific reason (it's an argument which totally ignores the prospect of town reasonably suspecting town and is also unfalsifiable). Outside of that specific action, the word "OMGUS" has no application - other than as an emotive label.

Now, what's scummy about FL's misuse of the term. Consider that FL only raised three discernible objections to DGB:
1) "OMGUS"
2) No reasons
3) Too certain

2) is false, as I have explained and faulted FL for already. 3) is consistent with DGB's meta and, more importantly, isn't scummy, as I have said already. I say this to make it clear that the OMGUS point is not the only reason I have for suspecting FL for her attack.

Dealing with 1) specifically, FL seems to have applied the label "OMGUS" for the simple reason that DGB voted BM who was voting her. FL actually said:

Blatent OMGUS anyone?

Imagine if she had said:

Blatant voting for the person voting for you

"Blatant OMGUS" sounds somewhat plausible as a reason for suspicion but, if FL had been honest and used the correct language, it should have been clear that what she was attacking was not at all scummy (ie. there's nothing wrong with voting for the person voting for you, provided you aren't committing OMGUS in the proper sense of the term).

If FL knew the actual meaning of "OMGUS" then this simply was a blatant strawman.

If FL did not know the actual meaning of the term, her actions are still scummy because the way she has applied the term is so broad that it doesn't cover scummy actions. It would mean that we would have to fathom town-FL attacking somebody for something which, if she gave a moment's thought to it, she would see was not at all scummy. In that sense, her actions aren't consistent with somebody genuinely trying to work out who is scum. In contrast, they are consistent with scum wanting to take an easy-street swipe on another player.

nope, can't put my finger on it right now, but elmo is definitely scum, and this vollkan wagon seems to have stopped short of the lynch i was hoping for

unvote, vote: elmo

Your reasons?

[forbiddanlight]

FOS: FL, I'd like a claim please.

Vanilla town.

[Elmo]

If she's scum, she has huge metaphorical cajones. (She implicitly claimed townie in the post before her last, talking about 'more dead townies', so that's not just an attempt to reinforce my view.)

I want to see Vollkan's %-list.

[vollkan]

3. DrippingGoofball - Massive headache. As I said earlier, I just find her completely opaque.

50

.

4. FL - Attacked DGB for OMGUS (wrongly), being assured (not scummy, nor inconsistent meta-wise) and lacking reasons (when they were obvious). Asserted BM was a "scapegoat", which was then reduced to the equally conspiratorial but less emotional charge of a "planned mislynch" (which is stupid as an argument for DGB being scummy, since it rests on a premise of DGB being scum). Voted me on an accusation of playing "semantics", which is simply untrue.

75

6. Korts - My main problems with Korts were all covered in my previous list. As I have said already, I have doubts about him being a vig, but he did say that he had time pressures which is plausible. Gets a

60

at this stage for play alone, but I am still trying to work out the vig v SK thing.

7. roflcopter - As I said before, rofl is a similar conundrum to DGB. Remains suspect to me for the sensfan-reasons issue

60

8. Des - Basically continued the good behaviour I identified in my last analysis. His reasoning on Yos and his current clarity make his ranking go further into the green.

40

10. Elmo - After initially lurking, I do find Elmo's current posting clear and understand his reasoning. I can't see the case on Elmo, and am awaiting on Korts to exlpain why he does think Elmo is scum. In the meanwhile,

50

.

11. RR - Similar to Des, continuing my observations from my last analysis. I've found nothing objectionable and reasoning is clear.

45

12. Pop - Similar to DGB. My big qualm is the lack of explanation of reasoning.

50

[Elmo]

Wow.

I really don't like that list, but I have no idea why.

[roflcopter]

Wow.

I really don't like that list, but I have no idea why.

is it because he is basically refusing to take a stance on three out of eight people? thats one of my problems with it.

[vollkan]

With voting posts like:

nope, can't put my finger on it right now, but elmo is definitely scum, and this vollkan wagon seems to have stopped short of the lynch i was hoping for

unvote, vote: elmo

i think the most likely yosarian scumpartner is korts

unvote, vote: korts

OH, I only just noticed that Yos is now dead, was a mafiate, and was a Godfather.

I laid back from the game for a while because I felt I was interfering with the scum's natural flow of bus'ing. And I had noticed that some players were bus'ing Yos, but Yos did not seem scummy to me.

Chief Yos bus'er: vollkan.

unvote, vote: vollkan

unvote, vote: Elmo

Adel, I think RR isnt voting anymore.
I like Elmo's last post.
Unvote Vote : Vollkan. I think there is a big chance that either he or FL, if not both, are scum.
Claim, plz.

How the hell am I meant to get any read on you? I've asked for reasons and so on repeatedly, and have been ignored.

I scumhunt by analysing reasons. A precondition for my being able to get a read is that I have reasons to analyse. Ergo, it shouldn't surprise you at all that I find your play completely and utterly incomprehensible.

[destructor]

The only part of vollkan's list I'm uneasy about is his read on RR. I know he hasn't done anything obviously scummy, but I'm worried that maybe he's flying under the radar. I feel like most of his posts have only been about Korts.

[DrippingGoofball]

Wow.

I really don't like that list, but I have no idea why.

I'll tell you why. vollkan is being a wimp sitting on every fence, and that's not the way he is as town.

[vollkan]

Wow.

I really don't like that list, but I have no idea why.

I'll tell you why. vollkan is being a wimp sitting on every fence, and that's not the way he is as town.

*sigh*
Firstly, it's actually more common than not for me to have multiple people at 50, so it's absolute BS for you to suggest I am being meta-inconsistent here.

Secondly, I take umbrage with you claiming that I am fence-sitting. You should know full well by now that I play by logic analysis and argument. I've tried again and again to open that channel of discussion, and my requests have been ignored.

Rofl, for instance, I have disagreed with on almost everything in this game. As I explained in my vote with Yos, I just don't consider the fact that somebody's stances seem unreasonable to me as a reason to suspect them. I am not interested in the positions people take, but the reasons for those positions being taken/altered/dropped.

[populartajo]

Vollkan, Im admitting I am a lazy bastard and just thought that one (if not both) of you and FL had to be scum since I have townie and neutral reads from other players.
I promissed a reread, dont worry, and Im going to do it tomorrow but it would be helpful if both of you present concisely your cases against each other.
Dont lynch anyone in the meanwhile.

[Raging Rabbit]

Why'd you think Tajo's scum, Rabbit? He seems townish to me. Not contributing tonnes, but what is there reads town. I suppose that haven't seen him as scum, and I only played with him once, like a year ago in a newbie game. But I'm more confident about him than a bunch of other people.

Ever since his entry post he seems to happy sticking to the backround, posting little substance that almost always goes along with popular opinion. I get this feeling he doesn't really care much about who gets lynched, which is very different from the town-tajo I played with who seemed much more emotionally invested in the game.

The only part of vollkan's list I'm uneasy about is his read on RR. I know he hasn't done anything obviously scummy, but I'm worried that maybe he's flying under the radar. I feel like most of his posts have only been about Korts.

I also talked about Yos a lot. What's wrong with concentrating on two main suspects? Now that Korts probably is a questionable lynch and Yos truned scum, I'm looking at other people as well.


I'm really stating to wonder about the scumkill.

[DrippingGoofball]

pop is town.

[populartajo]

Why'd you think Tajo's scum, Rabbit? He seems townish to me. Not contributing tonnes, but what is there reads town. I suppose that haven't seen him as scum, and I only played with him once, like a year ago in a newbie game. But I'm more confident about him than a bunch of other people.

Ever since his entry post he seems to happy sticking to the backround, posting little substance that almost always goes along with popular opinion. I get this feeling he doesn't really care much about who gets lynched, which is very different from the town-tajo I played with who seemed much more emotionally invested in the game.

I usually get more involved in small games and in games near to Lylo. Nice Shot Mafia is a perfect example of this and you can ask des if it helps you increase your possibilities of finding scum..

[Raging Rabbit]

It just occured to me that we have 9 alive, so the whole thing about not voting FL to prevent a hammer via scumkill is BS - it stays 5 to lynch after the kill as well. Going back now to see who got this idea in to my head.

Vote FL

, enabling a

town

quickhammer that would make sure we'll have no scumkill today. FL doesn't seem to have any sort of defense ready considering the staggering amount of content in her last post, so that may be a pretty good idea.

[populartajo]

RR, it was prob me. I might be wrong but if Korts is indeed SK/comp vig and the scum decides to kill we only have 8 players alive, autolynching FL immediately with your vote, right?

[Raging Rabbit]

Damn, sorry for the triple post.
If Vollkan isnt scum and if scum hasnt killed yet then I can autolynch vollkan if they decide to kill right now.

Unvote.

But I think he should claim, anyways.
Adel, also I think the number of nonvoters is off.

Hmm. This being a triple-post implements he might've gone back and looked at the numbers, so I don't see how he arrived to this conclusion. Maybe a false alarm in an attempt to look like he's thinking from a pro town PoV.

I can't seem to decide what I think of Vollkan. His play has been very logical and void of any real tells I can see, and the case about him is wholly unconvincing, but Vollkan's play is rational and distant enough that I believe he can play like that as scum as well, and bussing Yos seems like a reasonable play. Still, there's nothing I can really support this possibilty with and there are far better targets around right now.

[Raging Rabbit]

RR, it was prob me. I might be wrong but if Korts is indeed SK/comp vig and the scum decides to kill we only have 8 players alive, autolynching FL immediately with your vote, right?

Korts already killed today. We have 9 alive.