Open 859 - C9++ - Postgame

[Lucian]

VOTE: froggodoggo

Too polite of an opening.

[Lucian]

Aisa can be Town for 11!

By the way, Aisa and froggo, do you have experience playing mafia with each other?

[Lucian]

Welp. I thought the banter in 12 was between friends or acquaintances, but if not, then it gives a weird pockety, overly-friendly vibe.

froggo is hitting a lot of "awkward scum in the early game" pings.

[Lucian]

Bold claim. Klick can be Town, I don't think scum's first idea is to attack me for being too friendly when most of my 3 existing posts are criticizing someone.

And, froggo, sure, maybe you are just being friendly. In which case I hope I figure it out.

[Lucian]

Ohhh, were you calling me awkward, and not friendly? Yeah, makes more sense.

[Lucian]

"Taking obvious jokey seriously" now, too.

froggo, how much mafia experience do you have?

[Lucian]

If you think I'm being annoying now, you ain't seen nothing yet.

Anyway. Klick's push on me is boring, but ultimately NAI. And Infinity can be Town for seemingly thinking about my posts.

[Lucian]

I'm starting to think froggo is Town. His questions seem odd to me, but I get the vibe he believes in them.

VOTE: Cat Scratch Fever

Not a fan of her Infinity vote.

[Lucian]

(ongoing but a fun read)

Just a heads up, you shouldn't be linking this.

[Lucian]

Thoughts on Klick and Infinity?

Infinity is slightly Townie to me, I think 22 seems like a real thought. Everything else from their ISO seems pretty NAI to me.

I have no opinion on Klick. His position of "well you're the one being awkward!" is one that can come from Town but that also isn't difficult to fake. Nothing in his ISO is difficult to fake, and I'm kind of intrigued by Aisa calling any part of it "analysis".

Aisa, what of Klick's analysis did you like? I'm assuming the post wasn't framed as a joke since it doesn't give such a vibe.

[Lucian]

Why is Infinity scum?

[Lucian]

VOTE: Lucian

Scum detected.

Is this one gonna be more interesting than "you're being awkward"?

[Lucian]

VOTE: Lucian

Scum detected.

Is this one gonna be more interesting than "you're being awkward"?

[Lucian]

Is this one gonna be more interesting than "you're being awkward"?

It depends what you find interesting, I guess. I dislike your throwing out of town reads based on weak sauce.

So no, huh. Why do you dislike it?

[Lucian]

Because the town reads were based on weak sauce.

Reeks of TMI, you know?

Have you considered that I'm good at forming reads based on limited info, and that outing such reads, despite being weak, lead to a progression in gamestate?

[Lucian]

VOTE: Lucian

Scum detected.

Is this one gonna be more interesting than "you're being awkward"?

Why so worried about a read that's not that interesting?

Where do you get the idea that I'm worried? I wanna see where he's coming from so I can form a read on him.

[Lucian]

VOTE: Lucian

Scum detected.

Is this one gonna be more interesting than "you're being awkward"?

Why so worried about a read that's not that interesting?

Where do you get the idea that I'm worried? I wanna see where he's coming from so I can form a read on him.

[Lucian]

Fucking doubleposting, sorry.

[Lucian]

See what I mean? LAMIST.

I don't care how good you think you are, town reading a post like 11 is absurd. That post could

easily

come from Scum.

Okay, and? Should I never townread or scumread anyone unless I am 100% certain what their alignment is? Do you think that's the level of confidence I have in my Aisa read?

[Lucian]

But when you say 'you can be town' then my take is that you town read them. To what level is unclear, but a town read nonetheless.

I don't think it needs to be spelled out. Writing a "by the way, it's only page 1 and this read is not very strong due to the fact it's made by judging tone from one short post" would be absurd, OF COURSE that read is not strong. I bet if I did write that out, I'd have Klick over here saying "look guys, awkward scum! Writing out things that are plainly obvious!"

A town read for what is a completely NAI post I should add.

Do you think it's valid to say that Town is more likely to be relaxed in early game and joking around, while scum is more likely to be nervous, and thus less likely to make jokes?

[Lucian]

I suppose it depends on if you enjoy playing scum or not? Or whether you feel nervous in general as scum? I have seen many a scum enter a game with a joke or memey post. Are you saying you haven't?

I'm not saying that. I'm saying that in general, Town is more likely to be relaxed in early game than scum is. This especially goes for someone like Aisa, who (judging by the amount of posts their profile has) does not have a lot of experience.

Is this a foolproof 100% read that is always going to be valid for everyone? No. Is it good enough for a page 1 townread to get the game going? Yeah.

[Lucian]

I bet if I did write that out, I'd have Klick over here saying "look guys, awkward scum! Writing out things that are plainly obvious!"

This reads as genuine scum frustration. Frustrated because they took an action (not writing out obvious things) to look townier and it backfired.

VOTE: Lucian

Nah, I'm just pointing out the absurdity of the situation.

Not sure where you get the idea I'm feeling frustrated either, this conversation is overall still pretty boring. Not to mention that my responses to it would be the same both as scum and as Town.

[Lucian]

I don't know why you keep equating your town read of Aisa to progression of the game state. That's not what's happened.

You didn't answer my question; have you ever seen scum enter a game with a joke or meme post?

Again, scum can absolutely be relaxed in a game. Especially in the RVS stage where pretty much anything goes. It sounds like you know what things 'should' be town but you have gone about it in a really scummy way.

I'm equating it since early weak reads are how I drive a game forward in its early stages.

Yes. I have seen scum do that.

I'm not claiming scum can't be relaxed in a game. I'm claiming such behaviour is disproportionately more likely to be exhibited by Town, which is why I gave Aisa a Townread for it.

[Lucian]

Not to mention that my responses to it would be the same both as scum and as Town.

when do you usually differ in regards to your town play and your scum play?

Probably at any point where you're not attacking me for a playstyle trait that I exhibit as both scum and Town.

[Lucian]

Gonna go out on a limb and call klick town

Interesting, why?

[Lucian]

therefore know that it should be NAI

You see, this I disagree with.

I used the word "disproportionately" there specifically to say that Town does it even more than you'd get if you just controlled for the difference in the number of Town and scum in a game. I think that's where the fundamental disagreement here is. I am aware that scum can joke around in RVS. But I still think that, even when taking into account that more players are Town than scum, joking in RVS (if done organically, like Aisa did) increases the odds that the person who joked around is Town, because some scum have difficulties in faking casual tone.

[Lucian]

This argument is less than productive, probably, because I don't think I'm gonna convince you of my view of how an average person plays Town and scum. To make it worse, not only do I think you're Town, I'm also getting more suspicious of Aisa, the more I think about her "Klick is doing analysis!" comment.

[Lucian]

lack of scum reads

I'm voting a scumread.

[Lucian]

I wanna see CSF's return to the thread without spoiling what I'm watching out for. Ask me later.

[Lucian]

Bold claim. Klick can be Town, I don't think scum's first idea is to attack me for being too friendly when most of my 3 existing posts are criticizing someo

this is towny self-aware

why is lucian awkward?

VOTE: hiraki

Welp. I thought the banter in 12 was between friends or acquaintances, but if not, then it gives a weird pockety, overly-friendly vibe.

froggo is hitting a lot of "awkward scum in the early game" pings.

This doesn't feel natural to me at all.

can you elaborate on this? maybe it's because we always used to try to squeeze as much info as possible out of rvs, but this actually seems quite genuine to me.

-james

froggo, you missed these posts?

[Lucian]

CSF, what do you think of Infinity?

[Lucian]

Hiraki is obvious scum.

[Lucian]

The reason why I suspect CSF is that going from saying that Infinity "seems fine" to voting them was odd. Now, I'm not suspecting her for voting someone she said seems fine, I know building wagons for the sake of wagons is a thing. But if it's a Townie doing that, they usually seem more present for the wagon building, or at least show more interest in it afterwards? While CSF's thought process seemed to be more like "vote Infinity so it looks like I'm having progressions!"

It's a bit difficult to explain, let me know if I didn't get the point across. Like, I'd expect more interest from a Townie that voted someone for the sake of building a wagon on them to read them, and I'm not sensing that interest from CSF.

I think Lucian, Aisa, Infinity and froggo are all town.

CSF and now BBT are looking scum, I think BBT's push on Lucian is way too agressive, just looks out of place and kind of restless, agitating for someone to push.

The reason why I think BBT is Town is because "scum isn't more likely to be relaxed! That is completely NAI!!" is a very stupid hill to choose to die on as scum. Scum usually has a bit more self-awareness, he reads like a stubborn Townie to me.

[Lucian]

Klick, could you give me your updated thoughts on my slot, please?

[Lucian]

anything other than what you said specifically or something along those lines would've been interesting. Even just saying no read because no posts is more content than what you said.

Do you get anything from me calling Hiraki scum?

[Lucian]

I dislike the way Dunn is nitpicking furtive here. It kind of doesn't even feel like interacting with him, just talking at him.

I wanna see Aisa put a serious vote down.

[Lucian]

The reason why I think BBT is Town is because "scum isn't more likely to be relaxed! That is completely NAI!!" is a very stupid hill to choose to die on as scum. Scum usually has a bit more self-awareness, he reads like a stubborn Townie to me.

what do you think about the fact that BBT honed in on you for saying people were town on page 1, but not Aisa, who also said people were town on page 1?

Nothing. I read that Aisa post as non-serious, so I didn't think anything of BBT not commenting on it.

Not a fan of blindly sheeping IC votes. Unless the IC has some really above-average, it's probably not worth it giving up potential info from Day 1 wagons for the slight increase in odds of a scum D1 elimination.

[Lucian]

Unless the IC has some really above-average reads*

[Lucian]

Klick, could you give me your updated thoughts on my slot, please?

I like your thoughts on BBT in 196, and on Dunnstral in 231. Aside from those, I'm fairly null on you. I could easily see your posts so far coming from either scum or town.

Is the existence of my wagon helping you get reads (on either me or others), and is there anyone you actually scumread now?

[Lucian]

Gamma Emerald

Aight. Why is Gamma Town?

[Lucian]

Enchant can easily be scum this game, I think.

[Lucian]

Enchant can easily be scum this game, I think.

[Lucian]

?

[Lucian]

VOTE: Enchant

[Lucian]

Enchant seems like he has zero interest of playing this game, I think that's scummy. And the IC is also voting there. So why not.

[Lucian]

Excluding wagon analysis? Uh, none, nobody has strong enough ties with him one way or another yet. Which is why I'm not advocating for him to "flip right now".

[Lucian]

There's 5 days to deadline. There is time to turn that "minimal info" into "a good amount of info".

[Lucian]

I would also support an Aisa wagon happening. I don't like the fact that she seem to have a lot of townreads but is seemingly avoiding having scumreads.

I'd also like BBT's take on that slot.

[Lucian]

they read more town than scum to me.

Why?

[Lucian]

Extremely bad read, but the creativity of it feels genuine. So there's that I guess.

[Lucian]

I think Lucian, Aisa, Infinity and froggo are all town.

CSF and now BBT are looking scum, I think BBT's push on Lucian is way too agressive, just looks out of place and kind of restless, agitating for someone to push.

The reason why I think BBT is Town is because "scum isn't more likely to be relaxed! That is completely NAI!!" is a very stupid hill to choose to die on as scum. Scum usually has a bit more self-awareness, he reads like a stubborn Townie to me.

I think furtive's already addressed this and I concur - have seen scum fake tunnelling before.

Misrepresenting my post right after quoting it is a bold strategy.

(Before anyone asks, no, I don't think Aisa's lockscum for it. I can see her not having thought the post through fully if she's in a rush and just picking stuff from my ISO. But it is annoying.)

[Lucian]

I would also support an Aisa wagon happening. I don't like the fact that she seem to have a lot of townreads but is seemingly avoiding having scumreads.

I'd also like BBT's take on that slot.

What's scummy about that?

For one, scumreads are generally more difficult to fake for scum than townreads are. In most cases, scum finds it easier to say things that are correct (e.g. townreading Townies). Since most people in game are Town, townreads are much easier to produce as scum.

Also, outing scumreads creates conflict. It makes people analyse you and it can paint a target on your back. Which doesn't happen if you just townread everyone and don't offer scumreads, you avoid conflict that way. And I think a good number of newer scum tends to want to avoid conflict if there is no heat currently present on them.

[Lucian]

And for the record, I have considered the baseline for Enchant's play. He's under it.

I haven't decided yet whether it's just a playstyle difference or something more, you know? But also he feels a bit like he's jumping all around without committing to anything in a way that scum could plausibly fake.

The game's been going no for 48 hours. What does "committing" mean at this point? Has anyone committed to anything?

[Lucian]

And also this - again it feels like this shows a lack of consideration for what the baseline of Enchant's play is.

Hmm. Aisa, do you have experience with Enchant? Do you have any knowledge of his play?

[Lucian]

Extremely bad read, but the creativity of it feels genuine. So there's that I guess.

why is it bad? I see a logic to it. I want furtive to try to explain before I share it tho

I also see a logic to it, which is why I said it makes furtive look genuine.

But I also think that Enchant saying "so would you follow my vote??", him being aware that his reads can be good or bad does NOT show a Town POV. It's trivial to fake. Scum is aware that reads can be good or bad, they probably think about Town's reads and think "good" or "bad" throughout the whole game.

[Lucian]

Sure. "That question would be trivially easy to ask as scum," if you wanna be precise.

[Lucian]

Are you an alt, Lucian?

I do have experience outside this account.

VOTE: Klick

I didn't like their arguing that Hiraki should decide the elimination and that we had info to work with because I think they know better than to push for that kind of thing on day 1. We would have little to work with if we did this. Further, I don't think that there is a lot of information to solve the game with right now and am surprised that they think otherwise, and that they are creating town/scum lists this early. Finally, I didn't like their wagon vote on CSF.

This

is sketchy though. You 100% know why I am with Klick on allowing Hiraki to dictate things.

Can us mortals know what's going on here?

[Lucian]

Aisa feels clearly town to me

Mind explaining why?

[Lucian]

I'm thinking Gamma is likely to be Town here. Her argument with Dunn feels like she's thinking about it behind the scenes, but the fact she's not really explaining what's going on in her head make it more likely to be genuine solving rather than just for show.

[Lucian]

I cc townreading Aisa

You are also free to try to convince me why I'm wrong about Aisa.

Infinity, do you still like your CSF vote?

[Lucian]

Need to think before i vote.

This surprises me ngl

I think it might be because he's scum. Especially considering I don't get the idea he is thinking about this game at all.

[Lucian]

Reading through Aisa's last few posts, I get pretty much nothing from them. Which is concerning on its own, considering how many words there are in them.

I feel like it's going to be difficult to judge either Aisa or her read on Enchant without being familiar with Terminator, so I'm going to be looking at that game within the next irl-day to see if it helps me sort her.

[Lucian]

BBT, can you clarify why 495 and 496 make froggo scummy? I'm not following what you're saying there.

What would you say your 3 most confident non-froggo reads are right now? Either Town or scum.

[Lucian]

And for the record, I have considered the baseline for Enchant's play. He's under it.

[...]

Hmm. Maybe you have a point. Would you mind telling me a bit more?

I can't, it's just a feeling I have. Enchant hasn't done anything explicitly scummy for me to point at. It's just that I feel like he'd be capable of storing more enthusiasm as Town.

[Lucian]

Three days goes by quick when a few players are inactive or barely active. I'd prefer we start voting people up to claim soon. My first choice is still Enchant, but there are a few slots I would be willing to compromise on.

[Lucian]

Care to name the slots Lucian?

Right now it's Klick, BBT, Malakittens, maybe CSF and Infinity. Some of my reads I need to re-evaluate, but I haven't found the time yet.

[Lucian]

That's a really interesting response. Almost every reply so far has you down as town Froggo, and I would have to agree. I wondered whether anyone would pick it up and run with it but they haven't.

So the whole push on froggo was an elaborate reaction test?

Iiiiiiiiiinteresting...

I also forgot to include Dunn in my maybe pile. What's so interesting about my list anyway?

Let's do it. A voluntary gladiate. Me vs you.

VOTE: Furtive

Nooo, my Enchant wagon. ;_;

[Lucian]

That's a mood. What flipped the read you had on me?

[Lucian]

like pushing what seems like a utr with 3 days left until the deadline is not super productive

oh i was talking about the part where bbt was pushing froggo

The more I think about it, the more I dislike this "pushing a UTR is not productive" line from Infinity. While I would agree that pushing a UTR this close to deadline isn't productive (especially with a case that isn't that good, no offense BBT), that push lasted about 3 and a half hours, approximately? and then BBT gave up on it, had some actual conclusions as a consequence of making that push, and started doing other things. So giving this criticism

after

that happened feels off.

Looking at that Terminator game now before I get distracted again.

[Lucian]

I really like CSF's 582.

I looked at Terminator. From what I gathered, Enchant replaced into a hame, and within half an hour hammered a choice in that phase (after voting a different person for seemingly no reason too).

When asked why he hammered, this was his response:

I'd consider enchant.

Enchant, why did you hammer me for leader instead of hectic? We were both at e-1

Idk i saw message "if you heal CSF day will end", i didn't really look votecounts.

Compared to that, this line here:

Need to think before i vote.

feels like a blatant lie.

[Lucian]

Aisa's ISO in that game has significantly more words and I don't feel like reading through it right now when we're most likely not voting her out today, but it's safe to say that she's on my radar if Enchant flips red.

[Lucian]

No, I genuinely scum read them but their response to me felt super towny. It just flipped my read almost on the spot. I wanted to leave it open to see if anyone would try and continue my push on Frog before I gave my opinion but they didn't.

Why did you vote Enchant at the time if you were genuinely scumreading froggo?

[Lucian]

furtive, can you give me your opinion about 588?

[Lucian]

Hello, I am awake and I will be with you shortly. Just popping in to say that I don't particularly feel like unvoting because of a Doctor claim.

[Lucian]

Hot take, scum doesn't usually say "goddamn, I wish I had done this scummy thing when I had the chance". I'm guessing froggo is Town.

[Lucian]

Hot take, scum doesn't usually say "goddamn, I wish I had done this scummy thing when I had the chance". I'm guessing froggo is Town.

Why would hammering Enchant have been scummy?

Quickhammering Enchant once he claimed Doctor, if he flipped Doctor, would have been a little bit scummy. The fact that froggo said something that made him draw heat, and now is like "I wish I did a scummy thing so that I wouldn't get heat" is superficially a very bad look (because scum really doesn't want heat on them), but I think it's actually something Town thinks too, and Town is more likely to actually write it out.

[Lucian]

I can also see scum thinking 'I better not immediately hammer incase I get backlash from it Tomorrow. I'll wait until people have had their say.'

And then thinking 'Damn, I wish I had hammered when people were telling me to because now I' m coming under some pressure and we could have had the Day over with.'

Oh no, I absolutely can see scum thinking that. My point is that I don't think scum is likely to actually write that out, because it's the kind of thought that not very many players actually recognize as making sense from a Town perspective too, so the reward of writing it out is probably less than the risk of getting scumread for it.

I don't have examples, sorry Gamma. Just my read of the vibes.

[Lucian]

I vaguely dislike Dunn complaining about Aisa's memes on page 27, and this is moreso a note to myself that I need too re-evalue Dunn tomorrow.

Not a fan of 692. Basically, I don't think a post like that of Aisa is very difficult to fake. "What is scum trying to achieve with this" is often a bad question to ask (a lot of scum don't try to achieve something with every single post), but in this case it's especially bad. Aisa claimed she liked Klick's analysis, I asked her what about it does she consider analysis. Reminder, this was the entirety or Klick's ISO when she claimed that:

Spoiler:

Welp. I thought the banter in 12 was between friends or acquaintances, but if not, then it gives a weird pockety, overly-friendly vibe.

froggo is hitting a lot of "awkward scum in the early game" pings.

This is exactly what I think about you atm

VOTE: Lucian

Bold claim. Klick can be Town, I don't think scum's first idea is to attack me for being too friendly when most of my 3 existing posts are criticizing someone.

And, froggo, sure, maybe you are just being friendly. In which case I hope I figure it out.

To clarify, I meant the 'awkward scum in the early game' part, not the friendly part.

why is lucian awkward?

VOTE: hiraki

Welp. I thought the banter in 12 was between friends or acquaintances, but if not, then it gives a weird pockety, overly-friendly vibe.

froggo is hitting a lot of "awkward scum in the early game" pings.

This doesn't feel natural to me at all.

not a fan of giving locktowns on page 1

Why's that?

why is lucian awkward?

VOTE: hiraki

Welp. I thought the banter in 12 was between friends or acquaintances, but if not, then it gives a weird pockety, overly-friendly vibe.

froggo is hitting a lot of "awkward scum in the early game" pings.

This doesn't feel natural to me at all.

can you elaborate on this? maybe it's because we always used to try to squeeze as much info as possible out of rvs, but this actually seems quite genuine to me.

-james

I read it as oversharing. I think Lucian wants to be seen as solving more than he actually wants to solve.

Hello lovely people

This froggo guy is town

I think it's fair to say there isn't much analysis here. So theoretical scum!Aisa, if she doesn't wanna admit that she was calling a nothing ISO "analysis", pretty much has to reverse course and start talking about something vaguely related to what she first called analysis.

With that in mind, I find it odd that Klick would then use 185 as an example of Aisa ~getting her thoughts out in the open~. It kind of feels like scum looking for something to call Townie without thinking through it fully. Because the answer to "what is this post trying to achieve" can very easily be "Aisa is trying to convince Lucian she had some sorta reasons to call Klick's ISO analysis".

[Lucian]

I don't see why self-consciousness would be in play with a post like that. It seems designed to seem Townie, at least in my opinion.

[Lucian]

The fact that Enchant seems to have zero desire to call anyone scum as he's being dragged onto the gallows is making me have even more hope a scum flip is happening.

Hi hello why are we killing the doc claim. I would like to have a doctor around tyvm!!

If Enchant is scum, I have a hard time seeing this as a partner. If scum saw their buddy who'd just claimed Doctor get additional heat and get their claimed disbelieved, I don't think they post a post like this one.

Okay, I'm in the present.

Enchant has been my preferred kill for a while, and absolutely nothing about that has changed in the last 10 or so pages. I'm ready for the Day to end. I have a bunch of weak and mid-strength reads that I currently have no motivation to try to re-evaluate since info from the flip and the nightkill is probably going to be useful for that.

I'll be around so if anyone has any Q's for me, let me know; otherwise I'm likely to just hang out and wait for the Enchant flip.

[Lucian]

I vaguely dislike Dunn complaining about Aisa's memes on page 27, and this is moreso a note to myself that I need too re-evalue Dunn tomorrow.

I read this as kind of lackluster fake distancing tbh.

Dunn/Aisa distancing or Lucian/Dunn distancing?

[Lucian]

I'm ready for the Day to end.

[Lucian]

If Enchant is scum, I have a hard time seeing this as a partner. If scum saw their buddy who'd just claimed Doctor get additional heat and get their claimed disbelieved, I don't think they post a post like this one.

how???????????????????????????

Because if you have a scum fakeclaim Doctor, and it seems like the game still wants to go through with the elimination, I feel like other scum would feel too self-conscious to jump in and make a post that's basically "idk guys how about we don't lol"

If froggo is a more gutsy player, then this is probably not that Town-indicative, but I don't know that.

[Lucian]

During the Night, the two people that I was thinking of possibly being scum are Klick and Aisa.

Klick for that one post I talked about yesterday, and for the weird jump on the Doctor claim after being meh on Enchant. @Klick, why did you think the Doc claim is scummy?

Aisa for not really scumreading Enchant, basically. From what I gathered, I get the idea that Enchant is different this game than in Terminator, so the fact that Aisa did not call that out is concerning.

@CSF, other than the weird stance around voting, was Enchant a lot different in this game and in Terminator? I got the feeling he was, but I could be biasing myself.

[Lucian]

That last question goes to whoever else played in that game or is familiar with it, I'm a but short on time right now to be checking.

VOTE: Klick

[Lucian]

I have a very dumb reason to think Dunn is Townie. He said how nobody called out the fact Enchant was different than in Terminator beforehand, right? I feel like an Enchant scumbuddy would know that was called out, and this seems like something very weird to fake. I dunno.

I agree that Klick is very likely town from the Enchant flip, my unvote of Enchant looks bad, I agree with that, too. But I started scum reading Klick and it gave me second thoughts about Enchant. My scum read on Klick was going nowhere either in terms of building a wagon so if I wanted to pick a counter wagon for Enchant I could have chosen someone better than Klick.

Why is Klick Townier from the Enchant flip?

[Lucian]

I want to make my vote useful in the meantime:

VOTE: Infinity

Interested in them explaining their progression on Enchant and the re-evals they said they'll do. Helps that I townread both the people voting them currently.

[Lucian]

You’re interested in Infinity’s re-evals but also feel okay voting them?

Yes? The re-evals are going to be interesting to me because I think they're going to help me solve their slot.

My post doesn't imply that I Townread Infinity.

[Lucian]

I'm cool with pressuring them, not sure where you're pulling the rest out of.

[Lucian]

I think they have above rand chance of being scum currently. The fact that people whom I Townread are voting there helps. I am not advocating for a quicklim, as indicated by the fact that I said I want to see their re-eval.

[Lucian]

1.19

Votecount 1.19

Enchant (E-1): Hiraki, Lucian, Cat Scratch Fever, BlueBloodedToffee, Malakittens, furtiveglance
BlueBloodedToffee (3): Infinity 324, froggodoggo, Klick
Malakittens (2): Enchant, Dunnstral
furtiveglance (2): Gamma Emerald, Aisa

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to secure an elimination.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2022-07-24 18:36:43).

This was the VC (with furtive unvoting Enchant and Klick voting him) when BBT made 760 and the following posts against Klick. I don't think this makes sense coming from an Enchant partner because nobody wanted to kill Klick at the time? I think I was suspicious of him, but I made it clear I preferred Enchant, and I'm not sure if anyone else was. And BBT is calling Klick Town Today. So I'm really not sure what scum!BBT gains from this diversion and why he does it in the first place.

[Lucian]

be aware enchant will hammer if anyone gets to e-1

As I now think CSF is very likely Town, I'm gonna assume this post comes from Town, too. A quicklim on Day 1 as scum is always nice, and it seems like a lot of players in this game aren't too familiar with Enchant. So I don't see why scum!Gamma would call this out.

I'm already Townreading Gamma anyway, though.

[Lucian]

I do think my Townread on froggo did go down quite a bit. The "damn I should've hammered!" read I had yesterday is probably not that Townie, considering Enchant did flip scum.

froggo also fits in the group of players that didn't vote Enchant up to claim, but did vote him after the claim.

[Lucian]

@BBT, can you acknowledge my 1031, please?

[Lucian]

I think I dislike 1035. Two things have been asked of Infinity, to do their re-eval and to explain their progression on Enchant. The first one takes time, but the second one shouldn't. So I'd kind of expect town!Infinity to say why they changed their mind on Enchant at least, while scum!Infinity is more likely to go "yeah sorry getting to this game tomorrow".

[Lucian]

The case on enchant was never "enchant is not doing anything"

It was "enchant is doing less than usual"

And based on my experiences that's not true; I've always seen them post at about this rate

Dunn, do you think that 588 was talking about the rate Enchant was posting at? Because it was about his content.

[Lucian]

looks like Lucian has pretty natural read progression actually! I would say this probably means these two can't be maf together?

Do you find me a likely Enchant partner though?

[Lucian]

looks like Lucian has pretty natural read progression actually! I would say this probably means these two can't be maf together?

Do you find me a likely Enchant partner though?

off the top of my head, if someone bussed Enchant it'd probably be you

Lol.

In unrelated news, I can't help reading 1078 as tonally Townie, even though I probably shouldn't. Oh well.

[Lucian]

Yeah I figured lol, u took forever to unvote me after RVS

VOTE: Infinity

E-3

This is E-2, btw.

[Lucian]

But still, it wouldn't surprise me if scum saw a good opportunity to wagon a towny that was mentally checked out. I kind of expect it, in fact

Yeah, I'd sooner expect scum to wagon a checked out Townie than a Townie Townie.

Re 1158, I am not getting good vibes from Infinity's posts, no. I feel like I read their posts and got absolutely nothing from them. Because I did read them, but if you now asked me to tell you what content had Infinity put out, without going back to check, I'd have no clue what to tell you. And that is usually a cause for concern to me.

Hiraki’s thoughts

I'd appreciate this. I wanna know where he thinks I'm going wrong.

[Lucian]

Ugh, okay. 1116 is giving me bad vibes. It's like scum!Infinity was obviously angling towards voting furtive, and was looking for a trigger to vote furtive to make their vote seem more natural and Townie. Except the trigger doesn't make sense because "lol I'm softing SK" is a post that's obviously a joke because it's doesn't make sense from either Town or scum. So reading "how does that come from Town" feels disingenuous.

I do think furtive has pretty bad associates with Enchant, but they seem so shitposty and carefree and just doing their thing that I don't think they're the most likely scum here.

@furtive, have you ever elaborated on your Dunn read/vote? If not, can you?

[Lucian]

1196 is making me doubt my old townread on froggo even further, so consider him back on my list of suspects I guess.

Town: CSF, furtive, Gamma, BBT, Hiraki
Town-ish?: Dunn, Aisa
PoE: Infinity, Klick, froggo

The recent few posts from Aisa seemed alright.

Pedit: you're welcome!

[Lucian]

Not my first choice, but I don't mind it. Can we get a claim from froggo?

[Lucian]

Not my first choice, but I don't mind it. Can we get a claim from froggo?

When is this happening?

[Lucian]

I really do not care about a self-Town case, especially one like that.

[Lucian]

Goodposting from Dunn. I'm vaguely interested in what froggo's response to that will be, but I also definitely wouldn't cry if a hammer dropped right now.

[Lucian]

I fele like there's a difference between "not claiming 1-shot Doc" and literally hammering Enchant. And that's after he made a complaint about how he "should've hammered Enchant".

I mean I guess their best play as scum right now is to claim exactly Doctor… man screw u enchant!! (In the nicest way possible)

No. What. This wagon has been here for a while.

I would like to hammer rn very badly for funsies!! I will again wait, this time 5 hours. Unless 3 players give me permission to do the deed!!

VOTE: froggodoggo
I think this is worth trying
I wasn't vibing w him earlier and the reaction to enchant's run-up and claim seems waffly in the wrong way

Guess I should’ve hammered while I had the chance? Had two other players encouraging it too, would’ve been insanely easy to do.

[Lucian]

Hope that explains my weird reaction to enchant claim

What weird reaction. It took him three minutes to go from "I don't wanna vote a Doc out!!" (743) to re-evaling that thoughts (745).

[Lucian]

Whoops. Glad I don't have to think about Klick for now, at least.

Looking at the mod ISO, I see Dunn was not voting while the wagons were fighting between froggo and Infinity. Gut tells me that's actually +Town for Infinity, but I'm not sure. Anyone got meta on scum!Dunn voting patterns?

I'm fine with "massclaim but Doc claims VT" plan, I think.

More from me in a few hours.

[Lucian]

I'm like 99% sure Dunn wasn't bussing based on his response to the idea of letting Hiraki dictate the elimination

Wasn't bussing when? The people he's voted are two flipped Town and throwing-if-groupscum Klick.

[Lucian]

I'm alive! For the most part.

Until the massclaim is over, I'm gonna see if I'll have an original thought, or if I'll just carry on with pushing Infinity. Standby.

[Lucian]

VT!

[Lucian]

So, assuming nobody but scum and the Doc are lying, we're in DDMVTTT, right? Which would mean an SK.

If Klick is SK that's lying, then we're in DDMTTTT, which doesn't have an SK. So can't be. Same goes if he's scum claiming an SK's kill.

[Lucian]

Hehe sorry to change votes right after the VC but i'm hopping back on Infinity. I don't feel great voting with both infinity and gamma and I'm getting scumvibes from gamma rn. Voting furtive because you get SK vibes from them is weird. Sussing furtive because they include SK in their solve is also weird. I dont think either reasoning is sufficient enough to mean anything.

VOTE: Infinity

This was when Infinity was played at E-2. Dunn was very much around, but he didn't seem too interested in voting there.

Not looking like I'm likely to have original thoughts here.

[Lucian]

I vaguely dislike Dunn complaining about Aisa's memes on page 27, and this is moreso a note to myself that I need too re-evalue Dunn tomorrow.

I read this as kind of lackluster fake distancing tbh.

Dunn/Aisa distancing or Lucian/Dunn distancing?

Oh hey, this was a post.

[Lucian]

I'm really hoping this is just DDVVMTT, and Klick is trying to big brain it. I don't want to deal with an SK.

Aisa, can you explain to me in 100 words or less why BBT is scum?

[Lucian]

I'm not good at set-up stuff, do we definitely have a SK?

As far as I understand: either Klick is lying about being 1-shot (Klick, don't confirm or deny this), another PR is claiming VT for the lols, or we have an SK.

It's a possibility that one of the reasons there have been so few kills is that the SK's Bulletproof soaked up one of them. So.

[Lucian]

Oh, and putting this out there. The Doc should 50/50 whether they protect Hiraki or Klick tonight. Force scum into hunting the Doc instead of just killing the conftowns.

[Lucian]

Good talk.

I'm thinking it's between Infinity and Aisa. Gamma would be my third pick, but I don't think that is very likely.

[Lucian]

If the Doc gets run up, they can claim. So I don't see the benefit of them claiming now.

[Lucian]

Why Aisa?

Weird associates with Enchant. Not sure what her push on BBT even is. Is that my fault for not carefully reading? Maybe. But if she can't explain her read there in a few words, then I worry it's made up.

[Lucian]

VOTE: Infinity

This is E-2.

[Lucian]

Same, basically. Infinity is playing like demotivated scum right now, and I haven't seen any good reasons to think they shouldn't go.

[Lucian]

BBT feels like the one who feels up against a wall atm even though the thread's momentum is working for him, which feels apt for last scum on D3.

BBT feels the same to me like he did on Day 2. What's scummy about him?

[Lucian]

Do you two maybe wanna give me something to respond to, or are we gonna just sit around for two more days until the deadline forces us to consolidate votes? Because I'm not too interested in playing the guessing game of "but what if Lucian?"

[Lucian]

Not CCing.

UNVOTE:

[Lucian]

And absolutely nobody is surprised there's a CC.

[Lucian]

I gave Lucian's ISO a quick skim and I think I noted there were a lot of posts where he was pushing somebody. At least compared to what I typically do. I tend to post a lot of meta-level commentary on how I feel, waffle a lot, while I think Lucian's posting style is more "I think [PERSON] is suspicious because of post [X]."

I think that made me act a little hastily. I thought that it wouldn't be very difficult to for scum to hide behind this posting style.

Here is a small selection of posts that made me think maybe there could be something to Lucian!scum:

You thought I could be scum because I have a more aggressive / getting-things-done way of playing? 2 out of the 4 posts you quoted were against Enchant. Doesn't seem like a very good way of hiding.

Besides, noting how I have a lot of posts pushing people, then in a later post saying how you liked the analyses I've done is sure something.

[Lucian]

If we do end up having an SK, then I think it's at least somewhat likely I was shot by

someone

on N1. And considering both Docs are claiming to have been on me on N1.

Gonna go check how likely it is that we have two full Docs. Not thinking it's likely, but I love pretending I know how to do math.

[Lucian]

If we do end up having an SK, then I think it's at least somewhat likely I was shot by

someone

on N1. And considering both Docs are claiming to have been on me on N1.

Gonna go check how likely it is that we have two full Docs. Not thinking it's likely, but I love pretending I know how to do math.

[Lucian]

I got a 2.7% chance of there being 2 more D's, aka an additional Doctor. Not guaranteeing this is correct, as I may or may not be dumb.

But also maybe this is a pointless exercise because there can only be one Mafia and one SK left, and both of them are outright throwing if they are CC'ing Infinity. Which means Infinity is always the one that should get voted here, I think.

[Lucian]

We're either in dddmvtt without sk

We can't be, there's no 1-shot Doc in DDMVTT.

[Lucian]

Considering it's confirmed we live in a DDVMXXX, 2.7% unlikely. I say confirmed because I'm assuming Klick can't be SK; I know I worked this out before but it's late here and I don't care about this math enough to go back to check.

[Lucian]

We live in a society.

I'll be going to bed soon. Do you want me to put my vote on Infinity, or will y'all manage to get enough votes there without me?

[Lucian]

Who would you want to elim Aisa?

I'm now fully on board with the Enchant wagon, but for the sake of answering this, slots that are kinda in my PoE are Dunn, Infinity, furtive, maybe

Lucian

. Mala obvs is doing a Mala low-activity (which seems fair enough, she has reasons) so also no clue what to think there.

Hm. Why did you protect me N1, Aisa?

[Lucian]

It's cool. I was just sitting down to have a bigger response to your case, but, well. Don't think it's much needed right now.

[Lucian]

I'm moreso asking why you protected me when in 868 you listed me as one of the people in your PoE.

[Lucian]

I'm moreso asking why you protected me when in 868 you listed me as one of the people in your PoE.

[Lucian]

VOTE: Infinity

This is E-2. Don't end the Day before everyone has checked in, but I don't have anything to say Today anymore, so no need to wait for me.

[Lucian]

Klick hunting for an SK is something I really did not want to see.

If we're going down that route, I'd say the SK is more likely between Gamma and CSF, I struggle to see BBT playing SK like this.

I don't think eliminating outside the pool helps us much if both Doc claims are true, but we're likely completely screwed in that universe, anyway.

I'll give this a little bit of thought, then I'll say what I think.

[Lucian]

Actually I'd like to see a plausible explanation from anyone for either Infinity or Aisa fakeclaiming Doctor today as scum.

Infinity as scum/SK sees that they are completely screwed, and they're holding up the ancient groupscum-SK bloodbond known as "fuck the Town".

I did something similar as SK once, so. If at least a few people are like me in that regard, then I could see it happen.

[Lucian]

I guess my issue is that I think A) if there is scum between Aisa and Infinity, it is always Infinity, and B) both of them actually being Doctors is too unlikely to bet the game on it.

Because I'm not sure it's worth it keeping both Doc claims alive when we're just postponing having to actually resolve them. I dunno.

[Lucian]

One benefit of not eliminating in Infinity/Aisa could be to let scum solve that issue for us. It would be cool if they shot the scum there, but I think it's more likely they just shoot Aisa who's probably Town, and then we're still killing Infinity tomorrow pretty much always.

Them shooting outside the pool would have a non-zero chance of shooting non-Town. Or narrowing our pool, I guess?

But the cross-shooting is still possible if we miselim today.

I think I'm still in favour of eliminating Infinity Today. I just really think they're the scum in the CC's. And as nice as cross-shots are, I worry the more likely scenario is that two Towns die and we're in ELo earlier than planned.

[Lucian]

The way I see it, unless we hit exactly the scum in the 4p pool, then Aisa likely just dies tonight anyway, Infinity is eliminated tomorrow, and we're back to hunting the final scum in the 4p pool, except we let Infinity get an extra shot on likely Town. Or not get an extra shot if they wanna troll us.

I just don't see the benefit of leaving a very-likely-scum alive for the Night and letting them get a shot off. Especially if they know they're losing the game anyway, they can very much decide to fuck us over rather than make an "optimal" shot and shoot the SK or whatever. People can be petty.

[Lucian]

if we think there's a shot both claims are legit, that's when we should elim elsewhere, and they should protect each other going forward I think. A doc loop could only be broken by mafia and SK killing the same target, which would be very unlikely.

So have the conftowns just die, and take away the ever so slim possibility that the Doc claims get solved via Night actions, still forcing us to eliminate there later? Horrible plan.

I think Infinity is scum and voting there is optimal. I think BBT is Town, and I don't have a huge preference between killing in Gamma and CSF as I have no clue who's a possible SK there.

Still in favour of voting out Infinity, not sure if I prefer voting out a maybe-SK or no-elim.

[Lucian]

I think I'm just going to turn my brain off for the remainder of this Day phase and sheep BBT. Cheers.

[Lucian]

I demonstrated the downsides. We're shooting blind in a pool of people we have no clue how to sort while letting a Mafia with a Nightkill get another shot off. It doesn't benefit us. You could argue it maybe doesn't screw us over due to us being at evens right now, but that's not that better when there's 2-3 confrimed Towns in the game.

Whereas if we aim for SK today we might get cross kills or have 3 chances at voting our SK out.

How do we get 3 shots at voting the SK out. We get one Today. Assuming we miss, and both kills go off, and assuming both hit Town which is just what is likely (non-Infinity scum won't shoot Infinity, and Infinity is likely to miss even if they do aim for scum, which they won't but besides the point), that's 5 alive tomorrow. That's 2 elims period, both of which have to be correct and only one of which can be used on an SK.

[Lucian]

no conftown dying at night

I'm sorry, in which universe does this ever happen.

[Lucian]

and assuming both hit Town which is just what is likely (non-Infinity scum won't shoot Infinity, and Infinity is likely to miss even if they do aim for scum, which they won't but besides the point),

The convenient assumption you're making.

Infinity!scum shooting in our SK pool is a good thing. They also might hit scum. They're also incentivised to aim in the SK pool if they don't want to actively gamethrow.

You can't gamethrow if you've already lost. Infinity knows they're basically a dead person walking right now. I have zero willingness to have faith in them doing what is "optimal".

[Lucian]

It's a convenient assumption, but is it wrong?

Infinity either hits Town (you can say it's a good thing all you want, but they'll probably kill the Towniest person in the pool), or they just no kill for the memes. Even IF they hit the SK, they're likely to be bulletproof.

Like, the only scenario in which we get a dead scum from this is if A) Infinity is SK, B) they against all odds hit a deepwolf in the pool, and C) they decide to shoot in the first place.

Them not killing / hitting a BP isn't helpfuil because we're back to evens then.

[Lucian]

no conftown dying at night

I'm sorry, in which universe does this ever happen.

Infinity protects me. Aisa protects Hiraki. Conftown cannot die without confirming a scum to us.

Also you're conveniently ignoring that we could just... vote the SK today. Today counts as a shot at SK in this situation.

I didn't ignore that, I specifically included that in my post.

I don't know why YOU are ignoring the reality that non-Infinity scum just smokes Aisa tonight and forces us to have to eliminate Infinity Tomorrow.

[Lucian]

We're confirmed to be in DDVMxxx. We need to be in DDDDVMx for both Doc claims to be true. I calculated it as 2.7% chance for that.

[Lucian]

It's also ignoring the fact that we have a basically caught scum RIGHT NOW, and seeing who the final scum shoots will give us more info for SK hunting, which is basically a crap shot right now. But vote me for not agreeing with your plan, I guess.

[Lucian]

I'm ignoring the possibility of them both being Town because in that case, fuck this game.

Look at how both Infinity and Aisa have been playing after their claims. Who strikes you as more likely to be scum there?

[Lucian]

without thinking

-_-

[Lucian]

VOTE: Gamma

[Lucian]

If you need further reason why I'm a bad vote, BTW: Enchant was obvious scum to me. Pushing him out of the game the way I did is very stupid if I'm SK, as that just gets the attention of Mafia on me. Even with a BP, it's bad play.

[Lucian]

I have put zero thought in whether Gamma or CSF is more likely to be SK. Only BT struck me as being aggressive/out-there that made me think he's not likely as SK.

[Lucian]

This feels like his main concern is avoiding a Doc loop

I'm sorry, what. Unless your argument is that I'm Mafia, I don't even

know

whether we have a Doc loop right now. (Fun fact, it's likely we don't, because 2.7% is not very likely.)

If your argument is that I am Mafia... Then me being stuck in final 3 with Infinity and Aisa would be a wet dream. It is very likely the paranoia would set in and they'd vote each other. 90+% chance one of them is scum. I'd jump on the idea of a Doc loop here.

[Lucian]

VOTE: csf

despite our immediate reaction to the cc, i think aisa is probably town.

2.7% isn't really the probability of having 2 doctors, since the only other option is a specific setup

. it's still unlikely, but probably the world we live in.

This doesn't matter right now, but for future reference I'm pretty sure Lucian's calculations already take into account the fact there are only two possible setups (or only a few possible setups).

I ran my own calculations assuming that DDDDMVT and DDMVTTT are the only possible setups and got a 1.96% probability of DDDDMVT and 98.04% of DDMVTTT.

For the record, what I did is: knowing that we must live in DDMVxxx, I looked to find what the odds are of the xxx being DDx.

The letter D is given for numbers 66-75. Considering the numbers are randed 1-100, that means there's a 10% chance for any one letter to be a D. There are three letters being "randed" here, and exactly two have to be D.

Punch all of that into a binominal probability calculator, the result is 0.027.

[Lucian]

Wait, I'm dumb. The final letter cannot be M (because then we'd have Masons instead of an IC). Can't be V anyway since then Klick wouldn't be hunting for an SK. And assuming no Town Power is currently fakeclaiming...

It's even lower than 2.7%. Lemme see if I can remember my highschool math classes.

[Lucian]

I got 1.5% now for the odds of DDT being the final three letters, BUT. That's assuming all other worlds are equally likely, and we know we can't live in a few of those worlds. (Mxx, for example.)

Okay, I give up. Will leave this as an exercise for myself for later, as I don't think the exact number is too important right now.

[Lucian]

Yeah I was hoping for a response from Gamma before calling this out, but this response feels a bit off.

Whose response do you think feels off here, mine or his?

[Lucian]

There are three letters being "randed" here, and exactly two have to be D.

ok but you have to compare that against the scenario that they're both T right? unless we have masons who decided not to claim for whatever reason, it has to be DD or TT

I was assuming two possibilities, "D" and "not-D". Only later on did I realize that that is wrong, because some letters cannot exist (eg. Mxx). Basically, I'm bad at math.

Also it's incredibly sus you objected to Klick's plan only to naked vote me right after.

I don't have the time nor the energy to keep arguing there. And I said I was gonna sheep BBT.

I'm lowkey thinking Gamma is a Godfather who knows there's 2 Docs and that's why he's suggesting a Doc loop to appear Townie, not realizing that it's very much not a given for the rest of us.

No, I don't think it's very likely, but it

would

be funny.

[Lucian]

GG! Especially to Klick and Aisa. Thanks for saving my ass on N1.

Very good modding, Alianna! I was impressed by the frequency of the VCs, it made following the game much smoother. Thanks for hosting!

[Lucian]

Spoiler:

Ah ok. I sort of see. I'm a simple man. I understand shapes like triangles and squares. You give me a 9-block grid and my child-like mind can grasp it.

I laughed while eating dinner.