Choose Carefully Mafia: (Game Over)

[armlx]

/confirm.

[armlx]

Forgot to watch this topic. My bad.

I say, for today at least, we don't decide lynch vs. method in any particular order. Things may change tomorrow. The thing we want to be sure of is that everyone is actually voting for one or the other at the point of the lynch, so its harder for scum to swing the method once the lynch is more or less decided.

That said,

Vote Rope

to counter-wagon Gun, and

Vote CarnCarn

. I can't see what set up info you can have in a day start that makes you "mildly" suspicious of someone, so I'm inclined to think he is lying here.

[armlx]

You are either avoiding the issue or I just picked up another bit of information about the set up.

Or I'm calling your bluff.

Like I said, I can't see any source of pre-game information that would only make you

slightly

suspicious of a particular other player.

[armlx]

Oh yeah, oEJo, examples plz? The last time I can remember seeing it was Gimbo in one of the Polygamists and he was town.

[armlx]

STD, E and D aren't options. D as I hadn't posted besides confirmation, something that is essentially random for me based on if I forget to watch the topic or not (see: Dynamite Mafia); E as that happened AFTER he said the thing about having the info.

[armlx]

But your vote was placed before said comment. So either

A) I'm right

or

B) Your vote is based off of things from in thread, not pre-game

aka I'm right or I'm right.

[armlx]

I don't see why E is wrong. I placed my vote before the game, basically randomly, although with a few extra percentage points towards armlx. Then, the BM post came and I grew more suspicious.

Because in the context of your vote I don't care about the BM-myself "connection". That's semi-valid analysis in the absence of knowing my tendency to talk about game theory. The issue is the "info" you have that I'm questioning, and that came before BM's post.

[armlx]

RBT is the king of the parrots usually. That's my 2 cents on that.

Still think CC is just lying out his ass.

[armlx]

Wow, shit, I'm a complete idiot. I mixed up my role PM for this game with another.

Unvote

[armlx]

Meh, I've screwed it up enough its at least worth this.

CC and myself can night talk. Not masons, as neither of us has received confirmation of the other's alignment. The later is what CC is talking about, as he is assuming this lack of confirmation is more or less a confirmation of guilty. However, I have NEVER seen that or similar things happen without symmetry in a 2 scum group game, and even in a 1 scum group game I have only seen it happen 1 time out of many, the single exception being a game the mod was fucking with the players as much as possible (Sin City Mafia on MTGS). I've seen it and can expect it with 3 player groups (President Mafia comes to mind), but in a 2 player group I doubt it.

So, basically I'm pretty sure CC is town now that I've stopped being an idiot.

As for other, non-night talk abilities, I have no comment. CC or myself may or may not have those.

[armlx]

Yeah, this game seems large enough to have 2 scum teams.

The set up itself implies 2 scum groups. considering we have to choose which one is lynch vulnerable each day.....

Going ahead and clearing up any remaining confusion. You know for a fact that there is a Sicilian Mafia and a Corsican Mafia in the setup.

[armlx]

Well, I'm glad you guys do, but it doesn't really clear them in the slightest (not that I don't believe the claims).

I wouldn't say in the slightest, but I generally agree with this.

[armlx]

I'm not sure I understand how the mod agreeing with Armlx makes him town.

This. BM, elaborate?

[armlx]

I agree with not-BM. I was aware there was most likely (unless the mod was just pulling a giant prank on all of us) 2 mafia groups.

[armlx]

If CarnCarn wasn't aware of that very important factor, why hadn't he mentioned it earlier?

I don't get this.

[armlx]

See above.

[armlx]

Uhh, that sounds like a gambit to me. "Lets just hope everyone in the game didn't real the sign up thread hur hur."

[armlx]

BM, that Santos logic is a stretch of epic proportions.

[armlx]

I am not going to vote for a rope or gun at the moment because now it just seems to mess with other player's abilities to find scummy tells when they have become much too reliant on these abrasive lynch methods.

This, I don't like. The Gun/Rope vote is very linked to people possibly being scum. Avoiding it = bad.

[armlx]

I don't know what the whole point of this ability is either. My guess is that the mod just wants to throw in extra confusion. I don't really see anything I could talk about at night with armlx that I couldn't during the day.

This. I don't even talk with confirmed alignment masons much usually.

I'm down with the Santos wagon. The last 4 posts have been buddying, going from poking suspicion at my/CC's role to "believing it entirely", and distancing from a wagon.

Vote Santos

[armlx]

Don't forget his raging hard-on for Riceballtail.

The last 4 posts have been

buddying

...

I didn't.

Yes, because lackluster participation that appears scummy should be encouraged and used as meta, not treated as scummy.

Well, its not scummy as he does it regardless of alignment (see Xyl's Smalltown), but it is anti-town. This means that lynching him in any specific game results in sacrificing results in that game for results later when he (presumably) reforms a bit after being lynched a few times for simply being anti-town. The question is whether that's worth it.

[armlx]

and I haven't heard anyone else vouch for it except CD

Hi. See Xyl's Smalltown

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8937

Just use the display all posts options from Empking.

Santos, if that is indeed your role, step up. In that case its pretty much confirmed due to set up symmetry being cool that one of each group is scum.

[armlx]

Did you 'Choose Carefully' in saying that or did you just completely hop the fence and come to that conclusion?

Realistic Mafia

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7882

That is all.

The general conclusion would be if 4 of us had that role that in order for the mafia groups to be balanced relative to each other either all 4 people with the role would have to be town or exactly 2 scum, one from each group. Its possible that they would be arranged S1-S2 and T-T, but T-S1 and T-S2 is more likely on design principle.

[armlx]

It's possible that all four of you could be scum.

How? If we were scum such as two groups of S1-S2. that would be dumb as the joke would be obvious and the whole game would be decided by whether the scum wanted to start killing each other at a given point or not (I was in a game like that forever ago, it was not fun, too much swings on how spiteful people are).

The other scenario would be 2 groups of people just straight up lying. Do you believe this is likely?

[armlx]

I think it's very possible that at least one, if not both, of the groups are lovered up, which would give them incentive not to start killing each other like that.

That's even worse. Penalizing your win condition for the poor play of another win conditions?

[armlx]

My point is cross scum group lovers is just dumb, as in the end it penalizes one alignment for the poor play of another and creates a lot of "everyone dies" and/or "happily ever after" scenarios.

[armlx]

That phrase makes me angry. Still. Stupid xyzzy.

[armlx]

Don't lovers usually know they're lovers?

Right and I have no indication we are. I think Moses le fou is assuming that if we were both scum we would possibly lie about anything.

[armlx]

Yeah, the assumption is that you wouldn't tell us even if you aren't both scum.

Really? Why would I have incentive to lie about that as town?

[armlx]

It's also possible that the former setup is the case, and we are both town, or even that both mason groups are town

Well, we aren't even sure there is another "mason" group. I'm actually leaning Santos is just scum trying to get out of this, possibly with a mason gambit.

Actually, I'll take this one step further. We could also have T-T and T-S1/S2, or even three such mason groups, T-T, T-S1, T-S2 (the latter is how I personally would have chosen to design it), or even a fourth S1-S2. Look at the AA mafia game for an example of this.

That would be pretty insane and take up a lot of design space, possibly to the point of interfering with the main theme of the game.

Emp, just to be clear, CC/myself is one pair. Santos has basically claimed "mason" with no partner.

[armlx]

I say we just consider with the Santos wagon.

[armlx]

On the other hand, i really dont see abstaining as scummy at this point

Its the whole random vote principle. Random votes are fairly useless early on, but not random voting is anti-town for reasons I'm sure you have heard/understand.

[armlx]

I still want confirmation if Santos was actually claiming "mason" or not.

[armlx]

I still want confirmation of it.

[armlx]

EBWODP: Don't worry, there's a reason either way CC.

[armlx]

why are you begging for my mason to come out?

Answer the question.

Are you or are you not also an unconfirmed mason?

[armlx]

I don't know why armlx wants to know the identity of santos' mason buddy, but apparently there is a good reason.

I didn't want the identity. I wanted confirmation before I proceeded with this.

I want your partner to come out with your exact role name. Now.

[armlx]

You probably have some reason I don't see, though, to ask him mason buddy to step up.

Simple.

If his buddy steps up and is correct, we can be pretty sure that one of each is scum.

If his buddy steps up and is wrong, its very good news.

If his buddy doesn't step up, we know he is lying.

Thought: Armlx is trying to get a name out of him to see if it's a scumbuddy, so he can figure out if CC is also therefore scum or not.

How does this correlate to a vote?

[armlx]

I don't follow this.

See my earlier post.

And I agree. I want Santos' partner to answer.

[armlx]

I have a feel that because Santos's partner hasn't stepped up, he is probably just scum and no buddy wants to be linked like that.

[armlx]

I have a feel that because Santos's partner hasn't stepped up, he is probably just scum and no buddy wants to be linked like that.

This. Even if a partner does come out, I'm sold.

Confirm vote: Santos

die scum die.

I agree. Its just if I'm right, and somehow he turns up town, his partner is NEVER going to claim.

[armlx]

BM, if we were to lynch Santos today, what would you think we should use (gun/rope)?

[armlx]

He's scum, based on symmetry stuff.

This. More lynch plz.

[armlx]

Unvote

I want to hear a response from BM before a hammer happens.

[armlx]

Vote: Rope. Why, now? Well, CarnCarn brought up a pretty solid point making me think that its plain jane mafia now...

Rope lynches scum, gun kills townies. Why would it be the other way around?

What the fuck?

[armlx]

19. The town, in addition to choosing who to lynch, has to choose which Mafia group can be lynched that day. Either the lynch is by a rope (which the Corsican group is immune to) or by a gun (which the Sicilians are immune to).

Uhhhh......

Honestly.....

[armlx]

This ploy isn't going to work. Sry, good try though.

[armlx]

No, actually, p sure he's just right and you are trying to ad hom your way into tilting someone into getting lynched.

[armlx]

I'm not trying to argue that there wouldn't be multiple one town, one scum pairings (read, on the off chance that Santos turns up town, I'm going to take a good look at you tomorrow), but how do you know there isn't also one or two town-town pairings so that we don't inherently break the setup

Too much design space taken up. That would involve at least 6 roles like that.

[armlx]

So...you think that it's not possible to have a town-town mason group due to both symmetry and design space (especially if Santos comes up scum).

Its likely. Its also possible Santos is just straight up lying or its S1-S2 and T-T.

The only thing I'm certain of now is Santos is scum.

Yeah, I'm not getting this because armlx seemed pretty confident that I was town (and I am). I think he's town, too, after he intitial mix-up.

I explained how with 1 group its obv town-town, but with 2 groups it gets interesting.

[armlx]

I'm pretty sure the right choice is Rope, and BM's going back on his logic earlier about the mod mistake smells fishy.

[armlx]

I'd like to hear from everybody not voting for Santos why they are not doing so. That is, I want somebody besides Santos to plead a decent case for him.

This.

[armlx]

Never mind, I was confused. I thought it was the other way around (Santos voted rope, mod said gun, santos said no rope) then what it was. BM is sticking with the logic, and I think I'm with him here

Unvote Rope, Vote Gun

[armlx]

BM, I confused your original position to being Rope was correct.

[armlx]

BM, armlx, wouldn't he assume the town would choose the

opposite

of what he chose?
I'm sticking with Rope for now.

WIFOM.

[armlx]

Waiting for a dead Santos.

[armlx]

You missed Sineish's last vote.

Fixed.

Also, I seem to remember revoting.

The vote count is accurate on this.

Vote Santos

L-1.

[armlx]

Why is the first true BM?

[armlx]

The whole Santos being scum was explained by me way early on. Design symmetry and what not.

[armlx]

I am not going to vote for a rope or gun at the moment because now it just seems to mess with other player's abilities to find scummy tells when they have become much too reliant on these abrasive lynch methods.

That.

The whole weird Moses vote thing, the non-belief of the neighbor claim on the invalidity of the role mechanic when that was his role.

[armlx]

Eh, oEJo I've got nothing really on. He hasn't posted much.

[armlx]

Why was he so eager to believe oEJo when he said Santos was scum?

I actually brought up the idea first, several pages ago.

[armlx]

But why wouldn't he think that both he and Santos are town?

I've explained the symmetry thing enough times already.....

[armlx]

Hmm..

Well, 3 pairs is still probaby 2 scum among them, and its pretty clearly T-T, S1-T, and S2-T now.

I think this needs to be considered more at this point.

Unvote

I'm awaiting a claim from HP's neighbor.

[armlx]

Hmm..

I'm considering this situation.

We had 16 alive to start. Set up is probably 10-3-3 (unless the game is really fucked up).

We currently have 6 neighbors claims. Assuming all of them are telling the truth, there's likely 2 scum among them. So, 2/6 or 33% are scum, most likely distributed as I said earlier.

Of the non-neighbors, that means 4/10 are scum by this distribution, or 40%.

So really, we probably don't gain anything from lynching specifically among the neighbors over just lynching who is scummy.

That said, Santos is scummy.

[armlx]

Surely if you are accusing him of being a scum neighbour, this is a null tell, based on him not knowing his role properly?

What are you talking about here?

Link/post number?

Under view posts by Santos, #10-12

Eh?

Its a Santos quote.

[armlx]

You seemed to be suggesting that him not believing the neighbour role was scummy, when it is of course, is a null tell.

Why though? It was after the fact I had fucked up on it, I'd assume everyone else would double check. I'm assuming he knew he was a "neighbor" at that point, so what reason does he have to suspect another similar claim?

umm, what about it?

Did you read it? Actively not participating in an action that has strong scum tell implications?

[armlx]

So you think he knew he was a neighbour, and yet, argued that the role didn't exist? Even as scum, that makes no sense.

It does. He argues it then, comes back later saying he didn't want to counter claim. I feel as town you would consider it more likely given the unconfirmed nature of the role for there to be multiples.

[armlx]

I still maintain that I was the first of these 3 claimed masons to actually come forth with an actual role name.

Only in the context of it being pried out of you in that scenario.

[armlx]

Santos seems town to me, especially given with his meta.

What meta?

[armlx]

Socio: Who do you suggest as scum then?

[armlx]

STD.

I'm interested.

Unvote

Elaborate please.

This also has to do with how BM's vote swapped right after you said that.

[armlx]

I have to say, it hasn't escaped my attention that you were pushing a Santos-lynch from off-wagon. But this is just an instinct call now.

Hmm... I seem to have forgotten about my unvote when we were discussing the lynch method. As evidenced by my reunvote, I clearly intended to be on said wagon.

[armlx]

The thing that confuses me is why STD and hp let us carry on so long on the false premise of 2/4 being scum.

[armlx]

I've been planning to reveal myself since October 16th. I revealed myself when Moses came up with the idea of doing lynches by the symetry of masons.

I brought that up as soon as Santos claimed, which was October 16thish.

[armlx]

Is there a difference between being a Neighbor and being able to night talk with someone? Can you actually be a Neighbor AND a scum role?

I see no reason why not.

[armlx]

I guess, but that basically amounts to giving scum a safeclaim. Not that that is anything strange in itself, but, for some reason I doubt it would be given that way.

I mean, there's a reason there's no alignment confirmation.

[armlx]

Scum also can't communicate before day, so they wouldn't really know to do a neighbor ploy, especially spontaneously during the day.

You sure of that?

And CC, there's no way there's an odd number of scum in the neighbor pool with an even number of major scum groups (unbalanced much?), and I explained why there can't be 2 scum from the same group in the neighbors a long time ago. So its actually most likely 2/6 or 33%.

[armlx]

And here's where I defy you to show me a game where scum could talk pre-game with no night 1.

Polygamist mafia to start, plus any game with day talk....

[armlx]

I need to reread, but I don't think I'll be able to until next week.

[armlx]

Socio: I find it interesting you still haven't provided reasoning.

[armlx]

I personally think that was only a trick to make people bandwagon.

Shh, stop trying to give him explanation.

FOS HP

[armlx]

No, I think it's more often than not the scum are prevented from talking pre-game. I will admit there are exceptions, but I feel we're getting off topic here.

Its more common, but not to the extent we can exclude the possibility on the basis it is improbable.

[armlx]

Meh, I can get behind the oEJo wagon if I could see a VC.

[armlx]

They have to know the role of somebody too before their kill will count. With oEJo they know exactly what his role is.

This is a very valid point. I hate setup speculation.

BM

Each scum group still doesn't know if the other neighbors are town/scum presumably until the first neighbor scum flips.

[armlx]

Does anyone agree with me that we would be better off letting the opposing scum team deal with oEJo?

No. Too easy of a lynch, they just leave him alive and we are forced to do it.

[armlx]

Another point that's fairly weak: when he was voting Santos he still had his vote on gun. If he truly believed Santos was scum, he would have voted for the weapon he was immune to since obviously they couldn't be scum partners.

It isn't a lot to go off, but unless something else comes up I'm going to go ahead and

Vote: Rope

I'm down with this logic.

Unvote: Gun, Vote Rope

[armlx]

My vote would be L-1. I'll give people 36 hours to post any last comments before I vote.

[armlx]

If Oejo is town, he will post his PM now.

No... why are you even suggesting this?

FoS: Battle Mage

I concur. If he is town and he posts his PM, he has a 0% chance of winning the game. Where as 1 mislynch is not that devastating to his win %age.

[armlx]

While I agree the mod was short sighted to let the day continue, I disagree with your logic here as per above.

[armlx]

He'll know that, for all intents and purposes, he was protown.

Except he wasn't......

It's like a player starting the game as scum and just playing the game as if they were town. They don't win at the end if the town wins....

[armlx]

Yes, because clearly playing by the site rules is a scum tell, as well as providing logical in game reasons to do so...

[armlx]

It depends on perspective. In my mind, if i am town for the game, then get recruited into a cult and die, ill still consider myself town for that game. It's open to interpretation.

No, its not. Your win condition was cult at the end of the game. You lose if town loses, win if cult wins.

[armlx]

BM is right in that if we could infinite lynch, we would, but this is not infinite lynch. Its a play that no one will do b/c it causes them to auto lose the game and breaks site rules.

[armlx]

BM is right in that if we could infinite lynch, we would

What is the reasoning behind this? Of course, I understand that skipping the Night phase is great for town; is that what you mean?

Yup.

[armlx]

It doesn't look like anyone else is actually agreeing with Battle Mage's plan, but if it actually gets used you can count on me abandoning this game. I'm not playing a game where people purposely break the rules to win. That ruins the entire fun of mafia.

[armlx]

That doesnt answer the first question. And ftr, it wasn't breaking the rules of Mafia. The whole point was, the Mod had allowed it. I dont feel like policy-lynching OeJo.

Again, read the reason Santos was mod killed in the first place.

Hint: It was for breaking the rules.

[armlx]

Using those modkills in order to help the town, however, was not a breach of the rules in it's own right.

Fail. The actions used to cause said mods kills break the rules, hence the issue in the first place.

[armlx]

Also you deserve to get lynched/modkilled for suggesting breaking the game's rules.

Thats an odd statement......

[armlx]

Right, but I don't see how that deserves anything other then a mod warning against gaming the rules.....

FOS HP

for implying BM should be lynched for his actions.

[armlx]

BTW, in case it wasn't clear, BM's behavior has been strongly pro-town with respect to this issue. However, pro-town != maintaining game integrity always, which is my issue.

[armlx]

At this point I fairly confident CC + myself is the T-T group, though if you asked me who of STD and HP was the scum I don't think I could give a legitimately solid answer.

Guess that leaves oEJo.

[armlx]

Guess that leaves oEJo.

So you don't see this alternative as a reasonable possibility?

2 T-T pairs and one S1-S2 pair

No, I don't.

[armlx]

Vote oEJo

I'm ready to move along.

[armlx]

5 now.

[armlx]

armlx, any reason why you think T-T, T-S1, T-S2 is more likely than T-T, T-T, S1-S2?

Looks better on paper when making a set up.

[armlx]

I guess. But in terms of breakability, I would assume the mod would prefer the alternate symmetry.

Why? Its pretty safe as is.

[armlx]

I don't get it.

It makes me think oEJo is stalling scum tho.

[armlx]

1) We have a cop for sure?
2) We want to lose a cop over lynching one scum?

Hint: The answers start with N.

[armlx]

Not unless we want to swing this wagon to someone else.

Which I doubt.

[armlx]

Hold please, I did a full reread and here is what I got.

Post 27: If ZTR is scum, 1 of RBT and STD is definitely scum with him.
Post 33: Moses votes gun, just tracking this as he is a person of interest.
Post 41: Not a random vote ZTR? By known scum?
Post 48: +1 town point for Moses worrying about vote shuffling and hammering.
Post 94: Pretty sure ZTR is just newb scum now.
Post 95: See comment on post 70.
Post 96: Really? See comments on 70 and 95, but where did his suspicion from his last vote go?
Post 107: P sure Emp is not mafia with oEJo. Blatant wagon here.
Post 120: REACH by BM. Not sure if its atypical of him, but notable. Also the Santos reach. I wouldn’t mind a BM wagon.
Post 148: BM = opportunist.
Post 156: More reach by moses.
Post 170: Delay method of choice? Interesting.
Post 179: Excuse for hoping on a future early easy lynch by STD?
Post 182: More worries on ZTR’s part about his image in game.
Post 193: Trying to get more lynches out of the group then necessary (possible this point is just me making his post scummy b/c I think he is scum).
Post 205: REACH.

BM becomes more typical over the next couple pages.

Post 302: Really, higher chance of being NK’ed? Explain Zazier.

BM pushing gun on Santos implies him not being scum with oEJo, as if he was scum that didn’t die to gun he would push rope to get a lynch out of it.

Smiley tell from ZTR in post 410.

I concur with BM’s 430 for the record. Emp is pretty obv town this game. He’s being maximally helpful for him.

I forgot HP was the one of the 2 who claimed. That was pro-town.

Post 479: ZTR’s comment, and he is voting Santos still… gosh. OBV scum.

Needs more explain from Socio.

BM avoided voting oEJo post mod kill. Interesting.

Moses mini-wagons Ribwich on page 30. Noteable

The BM hammer me comment is odd. Probably just WIFOM and should be ignored.

Scummy:
Moses (possible tunnel vision here)
ZTR

Other scum are probably people that lied low and just rode out the Santos issue without taking a prominent stance. I'm leaning PutaPuta + Santos 2, maybe Zazier, off chance of BM or Socio. Then 1 of HP and STD.

Also, 2 questions for STD.

1) Have you ever played with Empking other then this game?

2) Who of the other neighbors do you think is the second scum?

oEJo is obviously the lynch today, but there's no reason to just rush to it without letting everyone make a comment or 2 about stuff.

[armlx]

So, Kairyuu, does that make HP scum for symmetry reasons then?

[armlx]

I still don't get why noone finds BM suspicious =/

Why should they?

[armlx]

As far as parter, I have few ideas, the only one that stands out though is Empking with his anxiousness to lynch both days, brief typing style when otherwise not lurking, and general elusiveness.

I now forward the same question I asked of STD to you as well: Have you played with Empking before?

[armlx]

Moses makes a good point.

Vote Gun

[armlx]

Waiting on STD to show up and answer questions, but I'm definitely voting oEJo once that happens.

[armlx]

Opinions on the claim from you in the mean time?

I'm still planning on lynching him. My opinion should be obvious.

[armlx]

Meh, my reason to wait has failed.

Vote oEJo

I actually thought BM was trying to pull that when I first saw his post, so I believe him.

[armlx]

I endorse the above post.

Now, we need to hammer oEJo or this game will permastall.

Notice the issue at hand. We want to discuss, but discussion will likely kill the game as it won't have an immediate effect and for some reason people don't like that.

[armlx]

I agree with the above post. I actually had that figured out earlier, but also figured out it was best not to reveal that plan until it would catch a scum who knew it as otherwise it could advise scum who didn't get the idea.

[armlx]

Well, one of my first suspects is obviously Detspeed. There were a few things I deliberately left out of my reread analysis until he could answer questions.

Post 70: STD wagons Emp.

STD called HP scummy in 474 while claiming neighbor, and implied I was less scummy.

STD saying that scum couldn’t day talk is a possible slip.

Unfortunately, the most important one towards any strong tell was the middle one, hence the point of me asking him what other neighbor was scum in his opinion, and that one was specific to him.

However, I want a general analysis of the game by him before concluding here. And as per my previous post.

Vote ZTR

[armlx]

Oh yeah, about that stuff.

Vote Rope

[armlx]

Your assumption is based on 0 power roles.

10-2 vanilla is abysmal for the town. 9-3 with 2 masons, a doc, and a vig is fine. Just saying.

[armlx]

I don't think that there would be many power roles, since the game is already rather complex as it stands currently, and to make it more complicated by throwing in a bunch of power roles would make for a massive headache for the players instead of making it more interesting. I doubt bird would do that to us.

Disagree.

And it seems we must disagree. I consider 10-2 vanilla to be pretty decent, because the town gets 3 mislynches before LyLo, as opposed to 2 in a 9-3 setup. Also, masons and a doc are very nice, but tossing in the vig hurts the town tremendously by getting rid of an available mislynch if the vig shoots just once without the doc successfully blocking a scum kill (assuming said vig hits town, as happens more than it should). And then we have to get into the whole topic of vig accuracy and SK WIFOM. Also into the realm of doc being one of the easiest scum fakeclaims, and the WIFOM of scum claiming masons. There are far too many variables to say that the power role game is better than the vanilla game.

Clearly, you don't understand vigmath. In the 9-3, 2 vig kills + 2 lynches pre loss = 4 deaths caused by the town minimum, of which 2 are higher probability to cause scum deaths as the vig is confirmed town for them. If vig never kills with night start there are only 3 town caused deaths minimum. Less shots to hit the scum is bad.

You are arguing things that Xyl has proved incorrect with mathematical data. Doc and vig are both +EV for the town. You are citing corner cases compared to their net return.

And show me a 10-2 where town has won. Then you can argue this.

[armlx]

Rolling Eyes Thank you. Now tell me why.

Ask me how many set ups I have seen. I expect the set up to be 4 power roles, 2 nillas, 4 town neighbors, 2 scum neighbors, 4 scum nillas.

And Kairyuu, are you saying 1 lynch is more powerful then 2 vig kills?

9-3 has more ways to ensure lynches aren't mislynches, as well as ways (RB/doc/JK's) to make up the missing lynch.

[armlx]

Anyone on the Detspeed wagon based on his single post is weak sauce.

[armlx]

Newbie 661. Player: Haterade. Look it up. He did exactly what you just did. He was right, but that's because he was the scum blocker.

Your point?

[armlx]

Lack of reasoning irritates me. My point is that the player referenced couldn't provide reasoning because he was scum and that is how he knew he was right. I want reasoning from you now in order to determine if the cases are at all similar past the initial similarity.

Its weak because the people are relying on a weak tell from a new player, who is liable to do anything under normal scenarios regardless of alignment, let alone scenarios involving having to read 35 pages of material before entering the game, especially when there are far stronger reasons already existing to be suspect of him. Basically, it looks like people trying to reason hopping on the wagon now rather then earlier.

[armlx]

Why would have Puta signed up for a game with ZazieR in the first place?

Elaborate plz?

[armlx]

So you are saying that we can't use anything he does as a tell because he's new?

No, I'm saying the tell that is being relied on just off that post is weak at best, even more so in context of his game experience.

[armlx]

What do you think about his follow-up post where he says that he signed up for a game that he doesn't understand at all? Santos didn't get the whole choosing a kill-method thing and he turned up town, but how much of a free pass can we give him?

I buy it more from him then Santos.

[armlx]

EBWODP: Never mind,

Strong FOS Detspeed

. Looking at his other posts, I notice in the sign up thread for Xyl's game he said he has played before.

[armlx]

Puta was Gimbo. I don't think his actions are completely tied to his alignment, especially minor speculative connections.

[armlx]

Exactly. Also, who/what is Gimbo?

A player who just did whatever the hell he felt like regardless of it being good/bad play, including outing his scum partner in a newbie game, which resulted in his banning. He then made a bunch of alts to try and get around his banning but couldn't conceal who he was at all.

[armlx]

Good attitude. I like you. You're still scum though.

Nice productive comment......

[armlx]

So what? I replaced into this game 5 pages ago and I've posted more content than several people who were here the whole time. I'm allowed to include the occasional off topic comment.

But its the EXACT reverse of the "But I'm TOWN" appeal to emotion that I note all the time and has even more potential for abuse.

[armlx]

Its actually a pretty null tell. At worst. That deserves a mod warning for general jackassery as per Tarhalindur's base rule set, but that's about it.

[armlx]

Are we talking about the same thing here? I thought you were yelling at me for saying that I liked Detspeed's attitude. Were you referring to the 'you're still scum' part? Because that was just me making reference to that fact that I still find him scummy despite agreeing with his attitude.

I was referring to the "You're still scum" part.

[armlx]

Ok. I'll have to ask you to elaborate then. How is "you're scum" in the context which I used it similar to "I'm town"? How is it an appeal to emotion? The two statements have nothing to do with each other in my opinion.

It's just a completely irrelevant, baseless comment that only serves as a plea to get people to listen to you irrationally.

Alrighty then. How many setups have you seen?

At my last count over a month ago, I had played in 70+ completed games, + a bunch more ongoings, plus MTGS games, plus set up reviews, plus modding, plus.....

You get the idea.

I can see where you get your setup theory mostly, but why 4 powers and 2 vanillas? And why wouldn't the scum have power roles in that situation? Isn't it unbalanced to have 6 scum with no real powers except for 2 quasi power roles, which are much more easily found than the vanilla scum against 4 town power roles and 4 quasi power roles? I suppose that it could be balanced out by putting in more scum like you are assuming, but in that situation I would think that the balance switches right over to the scum advantage. Can you explain it to me? I'm confused.

1) I guess its possible to have 5-6 power roles, but 4-2 is even numbers on paper and there would be way too many non-vanillas otherwise.

2) The scum are inherently power roles in this set up. 50% lynch, NK, investigation, doc protect immunity. So the town can be weighted as such.

[armlx]

Why were you so eager to lynch a townie? (Yes, I was modkilled, but the rules in this game thread didn't specify I couldn't quote my role; the 'mafiascum.net' rules said players typically aren't allowed to quote their role emails, which I didn't know were relevant to this game that didn't mention those specific rules, so my bad. Curse it all! Smile)

Uhhh, thats completely irrelevant. Way to just completely OMGUS pre-answering question, then not answer.

[armlx]

Uhhh, thats completely irrelevant. Way to just completely OMGUS pre-answering question, then not answer.

Uhhh, what is irrelevant? Did I not explain why I could not answer until Kairyuu could quote me on what I said?

I still don't see why it was an issue.

I would be up for either a Detspeed or Santos 2 lynch today.

[armlx]

What is the focal point of your accusation against me,armlx? Where is it that its acceptable to apply a vote on my person?

Mainly the cop direction on a known scum.

[armlx]

Santos, why do accusations need to be consistent?

[armlx]

Why CC? Read the post again.

[armlx]

Accusations for one person should typically be congruent if a person is going to be lynched today. Why do you think I haven't voted for anyone yet? We have several players on the board, but nothing concrete or consistent in the accusations. Where is the median?

If 3 people think player A is scummy, why do their reasons have to match? They all think A is scummy.

[armlx]

I'm a 'proof' guy, armlx. What do you have?

Uhh, the fact that you tried to get a cop to investigate + claim on someone we already knew was scum?

[armlx]

Self vote + appeal to emotion = scummy

This.

Unvote

I'm willing to drop the hammer at this point.

[armlx]

I'm willing to drop the hammer at this point.

Lets rephrase this to be clear:

If no one says anything that gives me reason to NOT hammer in 24 hours, I will.

[armlx]

ZTR and Santos would be my 2 top suspects now. ZTR from the early analysis thing, Santos from the cop thing.

[armlx]

Oh yeah, it was a ZTR STD pairing I was suggesting.

Vote Rope, Vote ZTR

[armlx]

Of course someone would kill Kairyuu because he and I were having the largest discussion against each other the other day. Sheesh, I have no chance at staking my claim because everyone will be on Kairyuu's side since he is now a confirmed townie.

Uh..... him being confirmed townie doesn't give THAT much more validity to his argument. That said, you are on the short list.

[armlx]

Is Empking's playing style always like this or what?

Yes.

ZTR,

Hold please, I did a full reread and here is what I got.

Post 27: If ZTR is scum, 1 of RBT and STD is definitely scum with him.
Post 41: Not a random vote ZTR? By known scum?
Post 94: Pretty sure ZTR is just newb scum now.
Post 182: More worries on ZTR’s part about his image in game.

Smiley tell from ZTR in post 410.

Post 479: ZTR’s comment, and he is voting Santos still… gosh. OBV scum.

Not just the lurking.

[armlx]

ZTR, full claim plz?

[armlx]

I'm new to mafia here, how much can I quote from my PM?

Your role name, then just clarify with a summary of what it is the role does if you have to (obviously not for common roles, but if its a weird one).

For example, my saying I'm a Neighbor is ok. Clarifying that Neighbor = unconfirmed + night talk with someone is ok. Quoting my PM word for word on that is not.

[armlx]

My facepalm has traveled so fast that it has spattered my brain matter onto the wall behind me.

[armlx]

Wait, in first post....

Still, sigh.

[armlx]

I also have no idea why you would ask me for a full claim if my entire PM is in the first post.

Were you claiming townie before? No. So....

[armlx]

Wait, HP was a TOWNIE? Not a Neighbor?

Wait, let me check the role list again... oops, Mod error! - Tar

[armlx]

But I'm also surprised about the NK's. Why those instead of other players?

Not sure on Emp, but the fact HP was basically confirmed.....

[armlx]

I think we have to assume there are only 2 members of each mafia at this point, with 3 dead townies.

I endorse a mass claim.

[armlx]

Assuming we mislynch today, that leaves 4 townies, 2 mafia, but the mafia are different teams. This is not LyLo, so what are the benefits of massclaiming today versus tomorrow? Is it worth the risk?

3-2.

The lack of info was the main issue I had.

9 alive is the cut off for mass claims in normal large games, 7 alive in minis. The point is to have enough info from claims to get somewhere from them.

[armlx]

I say the 2 confirmeds (CC and myself) decide any mass claim order, with open discussion of said order before we set it precisely, at which point is proceeds as is.

[armlx]

Scumgroups of two in a sixteen-player seem unlikely, though not quite impossible given scum perks here- and two different players strike me as strongly tied to STD/Det.

There are scum perks, as well as the fact so far we have only flipped one actual power role.

[armlx]

Also, with 3/3 mafia, its possible for town to have 0 mislynches and lose.

We should really be discussing mass claim order though.

[armlx]

And with 2/2, it's not that unlikely you can win without ever lynching correctly, unless there's some kind of additional anti-crosskill mechanic.

There is an anti-cross kill mechanic in this game though.

[armlx]

Well, it's an anti-nightkill in general mechanic. Though *deleted since i've just realised how utterly stupid it is to tell the scum what to do at night.*

Well, its obvious at least in the early stages of the game that the highest value of a kill comes from choosing townie, not opposing scum group. Therefore, for the early portion of the game, cross kills are very unlikely.

[armlx]

Together, it doesn't give me a good feeling about armlx.

Nice use of a quote out of context.... Completely different scenarios. One was end game where a player was a mason and the other player not, so I voted the non-mason to find out they were an unconfirmed scum mason. This is where we have had 2 neighbors flip scum, and due to symmetry issues either both myself and CC would have to be scum or neither of us are. Considering I know my alignment, I'm fairly sure I know CC is town, just like I knew HP was town assuming STD was scum.

Clearly someone didn't read/comprehend most of D1 here.

The 2 groups of 3 theory HASN'T gone wrong yet, I'm just assuming it as otherwise the game is utterly out of the town's hands regardless, so we should play for our outs.

[armlx]

However, you, if you're town, shouldn't have known oEJo's allignment. If you actually believed this symmetry stuff, why would you go after Santos I, instead of CC as you know your allignment?

T-T, S1-S2 was a possible pairing as well.

This is honestly rediculously weak. Do you think both myself and CC are scum? If so, with who? If only me, how can you justify that balance wise in the set up?

[armlx]

I am a

Mafia Goon

, but I am not telling you which one

I choose

CarnCarn

to claim next.

EPIC.

(fail)

[armlx]

armlx, what does a non-symmetrical arrangement of the neighbors do to the balance?

Bad shit.

[armlx]

I'm here, waiting for ZazieR to claim next.

This.

[armlx]

armlx, what does a non-symmetrical arrangement of the neighbors do to the balance?

Bad shit.

Like what

Gives one group more info then the other, which leads to differing win percentages between supposedly even groups.

[armlx]

SocioPath's claim reeks.

This.

I'd be leaning Socio and Santos being the scum, but if that's true the lynch method should be determined outside of Socio's "results"

[armlx]

I'd also point out that, if SP is fakeclaiming, it's in his interest to get out the 'right' and not the 'wrong' method for killing Santos.

No, not at all. As scum SP wants us to whiff on a lynch, as otherwise we get 2 shots to hit him instead of 1.

[armlx]

If he's wrong, he's outed as scum.

This is true. 3 lynches is exactly enough.

Still think he is scum.

Anyways, I'm down with this Gun lynch Santos stuff. If its 3/3 he's a sure shot to die, which is what we need to win. If its 2/2, he's still a sure shot.

Vote Santos
Vote Gun

[armlx]

Unvote Gun, Vote Rope

Was confused about which group was which.

[armlx]

I just thought of a scenario where Santos could be town, but its really stupid and he gained nothing over a straight up vanilla claim if he is.

[armlx]

I rather doubt he's town, because if its the scenario I think you are refering to, a vanilla claim could have worked just as well for that purpose

This was my conclusion.

The thought was that he was a townie assuming it was 3-2-2, and that the best way to mess with mafia kills is to claim scum..... Which is REALLY loose.

[armlx]

There's a reason we have lynch all liars.

That and lynch everyone who claims scum.

[armlx]

I say we move along.

[armlx]

Sure, but:
1) He would have told us by now if he's gambitting (right?)
2) His previous actions suggest he's not town anyway.

Obviously. Hence the reason I didnt unvote.

[armlx]

I mean, its what we have to do regardless. I'll wait on his result just in case, but

Vote Gun

[armlx]

I don't understand point 3.

[armlx]

armlx, my question for you is this: how likely do you believe it is that the Corsicans are PF and myself?

After those last couple posts, I'm thinking it is possible.

Listen, 2-1-2 town still can win if we choose alignment wrong on SP. SP's best option is to shoot other scum group, other scum group shoots SP obv, we end up in 2-1. So, I would rather play today as if its 2-2 and maximize my chances of winning in the set up where I have the highest chance of winning.

[armlx]

Meh, I'll buy it, but only because I thought CD/Rib was town, and my main concern is that this is a way to make the harder lynch choice in 4-1 today rather then tomorrow. Also, if it is 4-1 Socio just cleared PF, so that's enough.

Vote Zazier

[armlx]

I'll decide once you both post a bit. I'm just gonna lurk a while.

[armlx]

I think I just realised why no one can be tied to oEJo, that is, if this game is actually 2-2.

The Fonz replaced in Dec. 30th, which was to replace a replacement that didn't post. oEJo was long dead before then. He died Nov. 25th, and first failed to die on Nov. 15th. The original player's last post (christiano drago) was on Oct. 25th, which only was an asking of replacement, long before oEJo was outted as being clumsy scum.

So ties of anything never had a chance to happen in the first place, and I'm reeeally starting to think that if ZazieR IS town, that The Fonz would be the other Corsican.
I'm definately investigating him tonight.

Blatantly false. Ribwich posted up through December 5th.

[armlx]

Meh, I'm done, that's all I needed to see.

Vote Gun, Vote Socio

[armlx]

Fonz, what I was exactly looking for was you being to the point about it. The more you tried to weasel it the more it would appear to me you set up yesterday as a paranoia exercise.

I still think lynching Socio as Corsican yesterday was optimal, but the other play was legitimate.

Also, why didn't you full claim?

Also, good set up mod.