Ok I think the best way to do this analysis is to first look at who would most likly be scum in what faction
and then look at who would most likly be scum in what faction if its 2/2.
Sociopaths claim reeks and pretty much goes against the game rules of choosing which mafia to inspect. His post at the bottom of page 20 reeks of scum knowing Santos1 is town and thus not wanting to caught on the wagon of Santos1.
SocioPath wrote:All in all, looking at the Santos wagoning, it seems both scum driven, as well as town driven.
Santos seems town to me, especially given with his meta.
One person attacking him though, has rubbed my scumdar the wrong way, but I shall see how this continues.
Why would you want to see how it continues? You are going to allow the person you think is scum to lynch a townie?
I can't find anything linking EJ to Socio but i can find a few things linking Socio to Detspeed. He thought STD or Detspeed was scum for no reason in this post
SocioPath wrote:Santos wrote:I swear, no matter what game it is I play in, if I am a regular townie, I am always a terrible player.
SocioPath wrote:That is, unless he is just an Alt, then my read on him is shot to pieces.
armlx wrote:Socio: Who do you suggest as scum then?
STD.
Clearly his only reasons were inside info. This was likly distancing. if there are 3 sicilans then I think the last one is Santos2. Socio also suspected him and this time for a bullshit reason
SocioPath wrote:Empking wrote:I expect this will be a boring day..
armlx wrote:oEJo is obviously the lynch today, but there's no reason to just rush to it without letting everyone make a comment or 2 about stuff.
Like for example, how STD is scum, and Santos MK II is his scum buddy. All of day 1, STD his play was pretty good townie play...right up until it was revealed he was a neighbor. From that point, it was less of an uninformed majority viewpoint from him, to a more of knowing what was going on. The blatentness of trying to look as uniformed as he did, while every other neighbor didn't even try to feign ignorance, rubs me the wrong way. Most likely scum trying to appear as uninformed as possible, but not knowing where to draw the line. His guity conscience only became more apparent with his reaction to me saying his name.
Vote: Save The Dragons
Vote: Rope
For Santos MKII, rereplacing into the game, call it a hunch.
Vote: Santos MK II
Vote: Rope
But for the sake of today for lynching obvious scum:
Vote: oEJo
Vote: Gun
As far as parter, I have few ideas, the only one that stands out though is Empking with his anxiousness to lynch both days, brief typing style when otherwise not lurking, and general elusiveness.
Thank you for pointing out your scum buddies to us.
Posts 951, 971, 973
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 37#1395237
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 39#1397239
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 39#1397239
It would appear Bird111 made a mod error on page 39. Santos2 was already voting detspeed, then he unvoted which would give detspeed one less vote and then he somehow hammered? Long story short though, this reveals to us 2 things.
1) Detspeed was already on detspeed wagon (Third on to be precise, which was when detspeed had little evidence against him.)
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 40#1379540
2) It also reveals that santos paniced when detspeed selfvoted. He paniced to the point where he obviously forgot where his vote was and thus desperatly tried to hammer his buddy
without really giving any reasoning of his own.
Pattern much? Nice job taking a page from Sociopath's playbook right there.
Santos wrote:I am a
Mafia Goon
, but I am not telling you which one
I choose
CarnCarn
to claim next.
Nice Claim. DIE!
_________________
Hers what i got on Zazy
ZazieR wrote:Are you allowed to quote PM's?! Because i think you just made a mistake.
Either she knew what the neighbor pm looked like because her scumbuddy showed it to her pregame (I assume scum could talk pregame) or she is assuming this is a real pm based on her knowledge of having a scum buddy that is a neighbor. Zazy shows specifically that she is EJ's partner in these posts.
ZazieR wrote:Am I getting the blame that PP left?
This was my second game with him and I was probably the nicest to him in the first. He called me a *Beep* probably due to the third game.
CC, I was hoping that the
other scum
would kill oEJo for us. That's why I posted it. I was hoping that they would when someone gave a comment about it. But this plan was destroyed when someone gave a comment to my plan.
Need to do a reread as the new guy posts long posts and I need to look for some scummy things.
I think this could be a slip. First you wanted EJ to stay alive longer which would help your group and second you said other scum group since you can't shoot your own buddy.
ZazieR wrote:I don't like all this attention regarding the neighbours. Santos acts scummy. oEJo has the strangest argument regarding his vote. But all the other neighbours are getting the attention of being a neighbour. I don't think from what I've seen this game that they deserve it. I think I need to check those players who are putting a lot of attention at the neighbours.
This post shows more favoritism toward EJ and Satnos1 pair being under suspicion. Zazy should be shot if 3/3.
_________________
Post 551 Ribwich shows that if its 3/3 he is partners with someone in EJ&Santos1 pairing.
ribwich wrote:Alright, first off I'm going to apologize for not delivering on the post by post analysis I had previously promised. I was working on it, but it was just taking way too long to do.
Regarding the neighbor roles, I don't think we should go too much into it. There's just too many possibilites for what could happen even with 3 groups
(And I have suspicions that there could be a fourth group as well.)
1. T-T T-S1 T-S2
2. T-T T-T S1-S2
3. T-T T-T T-T
4. T-S1 T-S2 T-SK
5. T-S1 T-S2 S1-S2
There's some that are much more likely than others, but in the end it turns into a matter of outguessing the mod. Where I do think this will come in handy though is in trying to figure out which lynch method to use later on in the game. Once we have somebody that is confirmed scum, if we suspect another person in the neighbor groups, we can use the symmetry to find out what they're immune to. I don't think we should use the symmetry to find out WHO to target, but instead should use it to figure out HOW to target them.
...
I do believe Santos is scum for many of the other reasons people have brought up. There is one post he has made though that everyone else seemed to have disliked for an entirely different reason than me though.
...
Vote: Santos
Vote: Gun
At first he doesn't want to lynch the neighbors and then he goes back and undermines himself in the same post by voting a neighbor. He obviously knew someone in the pairing was scum
but was not anxious to bus.
Which is why he implicated Santos1. if 3/3 He is obv EJ's scum buddy. You want further proof at what I'm getting at?
ribwich wrote:Now that the mod has confirmed that Santos was town, I do agree that the fact that oEJo did not know this does make him scum.
However, it might be in our best interest to not lynch him. We know that he's scum, but we don't which side he's on. The other scum team does though. I'm thinking we might want to go after somebody else, and let the scum deal with him. That way, oEJo still gets killed, we get another shot at killing scum today, and there's one less townie that could get potentially killed at night.
We're done here. He tried to give EJ an out or chance to stay alive longer. Scum almost never try to kill lynchbait or other scum on night1.
ribwich wrote:Does anyone agree with me that we would be better off letting the opposing scum team deal with oEJo?
In these posts Rib continues to give EJ's reprieves.
CarnCarn wrote:My take is that scum would naturally try to vote for the weapon they are immune to (under no pressure) and would try to WIFOM out if they are pressured. Like I said, it's not much to go on either way, but that's my reasoning.
Post 644^ What carn said after voting gun shortly before
ribwich wrote:Another point that's fairly weak: when he was voting Santos he still had his vote on gun. If he truly believed Santos was scum, he would have voted for the weapon he was immune to since obviously they couldn't be scum partners.
It isn't a lot to go off, but unless something else comes up I'm going to go ahead and
Vote: Rope
How rib saved EJ again in Post 645^
ribwich wrote:Unvote: oEJo
There's a possibility that I think a lot of people if not everybody has overlooked. I want to make sure about this before commiting to a lynch.
oEJo, other than the fact that your name would be switched with his, did you have the exact same role PM as Santos?
For Fuck's sake, if it 3/3 Shoot Chrono/Ribwich/Fonzie! Hell would you like more proof he had inside info EJ was scum. See posts 714 - 729. Carn was on the right track there.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 81#1351381
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 09#1351609
Well that's all I got for 3/3 scenario.
If its 2/2
then players with worst claims are more likly scum. Santos2 and Socio.
Couldn't find anything really linking Socio to EJ. As long as I did not misinterpretet the first post I quoted here. Meaning he would have more precise reasons for thinking santos1 was town. But since he did not mention his own attachment to EJ I'm fairly sure my read is right and he should be hung.
This would leave Santos 2 as EJ's partner. There were a couple of times he defended EJ as well so i suppose he could fit in that scum group:
First Santos2 post
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 56#1352056
Santos wrote:What has been decided on the symmetry theory? I don't trust it, but I wouldn't want to ignore it either. Its really hard to decide. The only thing that really put me off was oEJo's lack of effort to explain his vote, but that has already been discussed and I'm over that issue. Ah well.
Santos wrote:Unvote: Gun
oEJo will not hammer himself because he maintains he is town, right?
Santos2 unvote's gun which is what could kill EJ on that same day Nov 13 which is the same day santos2 came into the game
Santos wrote:Idea: Cop investigates oEJo tonight and if he is NOT scum, then we move on. If he is scum, then we lynch him tomorrow?
Thoughts----
All those posts were on Nov 13 my Time zone
*Final summary*
[mrow]Player Name
[col]Chace they are Scum[col]Chance they are Sic[col]They are Cors
Socio
[col]80[col]75[col]25
|
Santos2
[col]100[col]50[col]50
|
Zazy
[col]50[col]40[col]60
|
Fonz
[col]65[col]10[col]90
|
Carn
[col]00[col]45[col]55
|
Armlx
[col]00[col]55[col]45
|
I don't think armlx and carn are scum. If i was wrong I'd say Armlx was Sic for his slight early defense of Detspeed's newb card and Carn would be with EJ for slight indifference with voting HP leaves over voting obv scum EJ when santos1 was revealed town. BUt I'm not in the mood to discuss this further since I'm pretty sure both of them are town as my earlier post pointed out.
I got stronger impression of what scum group Socio is in over Santos. though i'm pretty sure they are both scum especially since Santos 2 confessed. Should we lynch santo2 or socio today?
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