Mini 599: Rwandan Genocide - Game Over

[TDC]

Vote: Voodo

for missing an o.

[TDC]

So 4 people NEED to survive until day 3; the two rally leaders, and the two Hutus that have Tutsi revealed to them. Aren't the chances of Tutsi hitting one of the 4 mentioned the same odds we have of lynching a Tutsi currently?

What about the Tutsi leader, if he dies, that means they can't nightkill anymore, right? If so, isn't it extremely beneficial to town to lynch Tutsi as soon as possible?

Why should the first Hutu that has a Tutsi revealed to him wait for day 3 to claim?
The second sentence gives a good reason why he _should_ claim right away, doesn't it?

[TDC]

I agree that the play for today is obvious:
No Lynch, General doesn't do anything, both leaders rally.

vote: No Lynch

For tomorrow however, I'd like to clarify some things - I think the role descriptions are a bit ambigous.

Mod: Can the Tutsi Leader kill and block in the same night?
If the Tutsi Leader night kills the Hutu that was supposed to get the investigation result - do you choose someone else?
Could the "random Hutu" that gets the result be one of the leaders?

I think discussing what we do on D2 today will only help the Tutsi, so we should do that tomorrow,

but I'd suggest that nobody claims until we've decided that we want a claim tomorrow.

There might be scenarios where another No Lynch is the better choice.

[TDC]

Okay then, the Tutsi have no nightkill left, so whoever has a result (if it wasn't armlx), he cannot die tonight.

Outing him now however, would confirm him as non-leader and slightly increase the Tutsi chances to block our second investigation.

I therefore suggest we go to night with no lynch again and then get all investigation claims in tomorrow.

[TDC]

Hm, I just had a second thought, and I'd like to ask the mod:

Is it possible that the SAME Tutsi is revealed twice?

Hadn't thought about the possibility, but this might chance things..
I'm working out the numbers at the moment.

[TDC]

EBWOP: change

[TDC]

Sorry for the triple-post..

One of five possible receivers from last night is dead, so we have a chance of 80% that we have a result today.
If we don't have a result, then no lynch doesn't matter.

So I'll work under the assumption that we do have a result.
If we don't ask for the result, there is a 3 out of 7 chance that someone who's part of the investigation is blocked. If we do get a second result, we have 75% chance that it is on a different Tutsi. 4/7*3/4 = 12/28 = roughly 43%.

If we do ask for a result, there are two possibilites:
a) We lynch right:
If the Tutsi block someone else, they have a chance of (2/6+1/7=10/21) to hit someone who's part of the investigation, but the investigation will yield new Tutsi, so:
11/21 = roughly 52% (better than no-lynch!)
b) We lynch wrong:
If we lynch the Hutu who had the result last night, the block chance increases to 50% and we might still get the same result again for a total chance of 1/2*3/4 = 3/8 = roughly 37.5%
Assuming a random decision that's (11/21+3/8)/2 = roughly 45% which is slightly better than no-lynch.

Obviously my previous plan stands if we're guaranteed a different investigation.

[TDC]

I assume you mean Tutsi

Thanks, had overlooked that.
If he's the one we get a new result no matter what.
He's one of 4 Tutsi, so case a) looks like this:
1/4 + 3/4*11/21 = roughly 64%.

Combined with b) as of random decision: ~ 51% which is now much better than no-lynch.


Let's see whether that changes anything if we're guaranteed different investigations:
No-lynch 4/7 = 57%
a) also 64%
b) 50%
random decision -> 57%

So in that case it's a toss up now.

[TDC]

Sorry, I think roffman and I both meant the "Rwandan Patriotic Front Leader".
I though they were both called General..

Whether the Hutu General is lynched or not is not really relevant to the chances of the next investigation being successful.

[TDC]

Hm, you have a point there, the role PMs are not clear about that..
Mod:

Can the Patriotic Front Leader be revealed through rallying?

[TDC]

And having read throught the role PMs again I have yet another question:

It sounds as if the Patriotic Front Leader doesn't know who the other Tutsi are. Is that correct?

Because if that's the case, his chance of blocking are worse than I made them..

[TDC]

vote: no lynch

However

fos: TDC

its suspicious that Armlx set up the no lynch plan and when he is the first to be taken out, you start to call for an abandonment of the original plan. No suspicious enough to nominate you for lynching, but still noteworthy.

and I would still like to hear from someone who got the investigation result last night.

I don't see how that is suspicious.
I'm trying to get the highest chance to get a second result for us, I first thought the best option no claim, but depending on the game mechanics it might be better to claim right away.

Also why are you voting for no lynch if you want to hear a result? That doesn't make sense.

Waiting for the Mod's answers.

[TDC]

It really depends on the Mod's answers.
I'll not vote for anything until I know what's the best course to take.

[TDC]

Okay...

New numbers:

No Lynch:
Blocking chance: 3/10
Chance of getting the same investigation again: 1/4
Success rate: 7/10*3/4 = 52.5%

Lynching right:
Blocking chance: 0 in 1/4 of cases, (1/9+2/8=13/36) in 3/4 of cases
Chance of getting the same investigation again: 0
Success rate: 1/4+23/36*3/4 = 72.9%

Lynching wrong (the Hutu that had the result, that is):
Blocking chance: 3/9
Chance of getting the same investigation again: 0
Success rate: 66.7%

So unless I'm (again) missing something, claiming is now hugely better than no-lynch - even if we lynch the wrong guy.

[TDC]

Why is blocking chance on no lynch 3/10? Is the Hutu who gets the info factored in? I thought only rally leaders would be effectively blocked.

No, the receiver can be blocked as well.

[TDC]

the thing is, if we lynch wrong, we just don't rally that night as we then know who the tutsi is.

Yeah, had that factored in already, but forgot to mention it.

So.. the plan looks like this:
We finally ask for a claim.
No claim -> No lynch -> leaders rally
Claim -> Tutsi lynch -> leaders rally
Claim -> Hutu lynch -> leaders don't rally -> Tutsi lynch -> leaders rally
Right?

I did not receive a result.

[TDC]

EBWOP: Just noticed that the "lynch wrong"-case has a block chance of 3/8 not 3/9, so a success rate of 62.5% still better than no lynch.

[TDC]

EBWOP2: *sigh* and I again forgot that the lynched Tutsi could be the Patriotic Front Leader, so it's in fact 0 in 1 of 4 cases, so it's up to 71% again.

Anyway,

could we have some prods?

Might well be that we haven't got a result yet, because pickemgenius or Xanatos Roulette or whoever else is absent received it.

[TDC]

What information does that convey that not saying "I have a result on.." doesn't convey?
It just makes it easier to see who's read that we want to hear the result and doesn't have a result.
Take for example peg's post. Do you know whether he has a result? I don't even know whether he's read the thread..

[TDC]

Mod:

Have you prodded Grimmy and Xanatos?

[TDC]

Ah, I remember reading it, but forgot it was you who said it.
Seems our last hope is Xanatos.

[TDC]

Seriously, let's get over with the investigation business first.
Should Xanatos not have a result either, we'll go to night without a lynch, let both leaders rally and then see whether we have a result tomorrow.

[TDC]

No need to prod me, I was waiting for Xanatos.

[TDC]

roffman:
Hadn't thought about this before, but yeah, we'll have to talk about a mass claim tomorrow. I think we have it in the bag if we get an investigation and we're pretty close if we don't.

Anyway

Vote: no lynch

Let's try again.

[TDC]

If my counting is correct, it should be night now.

[TDC]

Wasn't he already dead yesterday?

Anyway.. investigation result, please?
Also, I suggest we mass claim.

[TDC]

Might not have been clear before: I suggest that the two leaders and the General and the UNAMIR (who by all means should side with the town if he wants to survive) claim their roles.
That gives us 4 confirmed Hutu or exchanges Hutu and Tutsi 1:1 (worst case).

If Grimmy is telling the truth, then the Tutsi have no night action left, so even the General can claim without having to fear to lose his night kill.
The other three are useless anyway.

Any reasons that speak against that sort of mass claim?
Do we want to decide on a claim order?

[TDC]

Well, that's certainly interesting.

vote: Voodo

I guess this also means we know who we lynch tomorrow:
If Voodo is Hutu: Sleepy.
If Voodo is Tutsi: Grimmy.

[TDC]

roffman: Well.. would've liked to have a consensus on this first, but since you started, I might as well claim, too:
I'm the Leader of the Interahamwe.

[TDC]

EBWOTP: And yes, I did rally both nights.

[TDC]

No idea what you mean.
Are you saying that Panda is Tutsi together with Voodo?
If so, where's the problem?
We lynch Voodo, turns up Tutsi. We lynch you, you turn up Hutu. Then we lynch Panda. That would be 2 Tutsi for 1 Hutu.
Only one of you guys can have received the result, so the other must be Tutsi.

[TDC]

EBWOP: The above was referring to Grimmy.

[TDC]

Vote: Grimmy

Even if Panda is his partner, we have enough confirmed Hutu (4) that we cannot lose anymore.

[TDC]

Grimmy:
What's your point?
I'm uncounterclaimed. That means I'm confirmed Hutu.
I invite every Tutsi to counterclaim me though, that will end the game even quicker.

[TDC]

Actually, it's night again.

[TDC]

So..

confirmed:
TDC - leader
dahill1 - leader
Pie_is_good - general
roffman - UNAMIR

nearly confirmed:
SleepyPanda

So, likely two Tutsi in:
pickemgenius
zu_Faul
Natirasha
PBuG

vote: zu_Faul

[TDC]

should the general use his kill tonight, just to narrow the suspects?

Why not, would also reduce the amount of nights, since he has the last night choice..

[TDC]

Actually zu's at 4 votes, only one missing.

[TDC]

Prods?

[TDC]

Hooray.

[TDC]

Yeah, do your job pie, you've had your massclaim after all ;p

vote pickemgenius

[TDC]

Yay!
But yeah, the setup was somewhat broken.

[TDC]

Thinking about this:
ShadowLurker: Why did you run this as an open setup?
I think it might've worked very well had it been closed..