Mini 599: Rwandan Genocide - Game Over

[SleepyPanda]

I assume you mean Tutsi

Thanks, had overlooked that.
If he's the one we get a new result no matter what.
He's one of 4 Tutsi, so case a) looks like this:
1/4 + 3/4*11/21 = roughly 64%.

Combined with b) as of random decision: ~ 51% which is now much better than no-lynch.


Let's see whether that changes anything if we're guaranteed different investigations:
No-lynch 4/7 = 57%
a) also 64%

Why is the general factored in? Isn't he Hutu? I don't see where it says the person revealed from rally are Tutsi AND general.
b) 50%
random decision -> 57%

So in that case it's a toss up now.

[SleepyPanda]

Oops, I wrote my question inside your quote. >_<

Why is the general factored in? Isn't he Hutu? I don't see where it says the person revealed from rally are Tutsi AND general.

[SleepyPanda]

Oh wait, you mean the Tutsi leader. For some reason, I assumed only the 3 normal Tutsi citizens would be revealed.

[TDC]

Sorry, I think roffman and I both meant the "Rwandan Patriotic Front Leader".
I though they were both called General..

Whether the Hutu General is lynched or not is not really relevant to the chances of the next investigation being successful.

[TDC]

Hm, you have a point there, the role PMs are not clear about that..
Mod:

Can the Patriotic Front Leader be revealed through rallying?

[TDC]

And having read throught the role PMs again I have yet another question:

It sounds as if the Patriotic Front Leader doesn't know who the other Tutsi are. Is that correct?

Because if that's the case, his chance of blocking are worse than I made them..

[SleepyPanda]

And having read throught the role PMs again I have yet another question:

It sounds as if the Patriotic Front Leader doesn't know who the other Tutsi are. Is that correct?

Because if that's the case, his chance of blocking are worse than I made them..

Yeah, that's how I read it too. Thought it was kind of weird since that meant it was possible for him to kill off his own teammates with his NK.

[chaotic_diablo]

vote no lynch

[Grimmy]

vote: no lynch

However

fos: TDC

its suspicious that Armlx set up the no lynch plan and when he is the first to be taken out, you start to call for an abandonment of the original plan. No suspicious enough to nominate you for lynching, but still noteworthy.

and I would still like to hear from someone who got the investigation result last night.

Grimmy
didnt hear a peep

[SleepyPanda]

It's not really abandoning the first plan...more like revising.

You don't think that not lynching now so the Tutsi leader will have extra people to consider when using his roleblock is not a valid point? If the Hutu claims, then Tutsi leader will know not to roleblock him. Come day 3, we can have them claim and lynch just the same. It seems sound to me.

[dahill1]

vote: no lynch

However

fos: TDC

its suspicious that Armlx set up the no lynch plan and when he is the first to be taken out, you start to call for an abandonment of the original plan. No suspicious enough to nominate you for lynching, but still noteworthy.

and I would still like to hear from someone who got the investigation result last night.

Grimmy
didnt hear a peep

i agree with grimmy. i think whoever got the name of the Tutsi should reveal today. basically, it's a trade of 1 town for 1 scum, which is almost always a good move.

[roffman]

i think the person who got the result should reveal. There are just to many varaibles that make it ideal. Consider the lynching of the patriotic leader, the fact that the same tutsi could be revealed, and the fact that if we don't tutsi could each claim to have 2 ppl revealed to them, leaving us massively confused over who to lynch next

[SleepyPanda]

I'd really like if the questions are answered by mod before claiming. If the same tutsi cannot be revealed, I don't see why we shouldn't wait.

There are only a total of 4 tutsi. At most, only two would be counter claiming the people who reveal. With 7 Hutu, we can spare mislynches. Just focus on lynching one pair before moving onto the next. Worst case then would be 5 Hutu, 2 Tutsi. It can't be any worse if we lynch now, or wait until later.

It all depends on whether or not the same Tutsi can be revealed.

[dahill1]

(posting this in all games)

away til tuesday

[TDC]

vote: no lynch

However

fos: TDC

its suspicious that Armlx set up the no lynch plan and when he is the first to be taken out, you start to call for an abandonment of the original plan. No suspicious enough to nominate you for lynching, but still noteworthy.

and I would still like to hear from someone who got the investigation result last night.

I don't see how that is suspicious.
I'm trying to get the highest chance to get a second result for us, I first thought the best option no claim, but depending on the game mechanics it might be better to claim right away.

Also why are you voting for no lynch if you want to hear a result? That doesn't make sense.

Waiting for the Mod's answers.

[Grimmy]

Also why are you voting for no lynch if you want to hear a result? That doesn't make sense

.

Sticking with the No Lynch until we have a better target. Until things change, Im sticking with the original plan.

[SleepyPanda]

Sticking with the No Lynch until we have a better target. Until things change, Im sticking with the original plan.

I thought original plan was to claim after reveal, lynch, then repeat for day 2. Not lynching is revision plan, which I thought you were against.

its suspicious that Armlx set up the no lynch plan and when he is the first to be taken out, you start to call for an abandonment of the original plan. No suspicious enough to nominate you for lynching, but still noteworthy.

[Grimmy]

Sorry Jathan, your set up is broken beyond belief.

No lynch 2x

then mass claim of citizen/not citizen. Both nights troops are rallied and 2 Tutsi are revealed. Mass claim leaves us with 2 unfound Tutsi, based on numbers we proceed from there.

Im assuming this is our day 2 no lynch.
that was what I was going with.

[Grimmy]

Another question I have.

WHICH general ordered the hit?

While the original plan called for the Hutu leader to NOT do a NK, but why would the Tutsi leader waste their one shot when the odds are they would hit their own guy?

My worry is that if the Hutu leader is taking shots at random, he will make it easier for the Tutsi leader to make his shot count later in the game.

And if the Tutsi leader DID make his shot last night, then why did he target armlx?

Grimmy
any thoughts on this?

[SleepyPanda]

Another question I have.

WHICH general ordered the hit?

While the original plan called for the Hutu leader to NOT do a NK, but why would the Tutsi leader waste their one shot when the odds are they would hit their own guy?

My worry is that if the Hutu leader is taking shots at random, he will make it easier for the Tutsi leader to make his shot count later in the game.

And if the Tutsi leader DID make his shot last night, then why did he target armlx?

Grimmy
any thoughts on this?

I don't think anyone should answer. It doesn't matter now. The more people answer, the more chances for Tutsi leader to figure out who is who. That's why I believe we should not be claiming/revealing until later.

We all agree that the plan was and still is no lynch, yes? Start voting! We still have to wait 3 RL days for night to pass. zzz.

[TDC]

It really depends on the Mod's answers.
I'll not vote for anything until I know what's the best course to take.

[ShadowLurker]

Mod:

Can the Patriotic Front Leader be revealed through rallying?

Yes, but he will not be revealed as such.

It sounds as if the Patriotic Front Leader doesn't know who the other Tutsi are. Is that correct?

Correct

[SleepyPanda]

Can the same Tutsi be revealed on both rallies?

This one too, this one too!

[Voodo]

Hmmmmm, the Hutu leader could have attacked last night. Not smart, but possible. I just don't see why the Tutsi leader would waste their one shot kill. :shrugs:

[roffman]

because if they hit either of the ralliers, or the person who got info revealed, hutsi is screwed