Mini 599: Rwandan Genocide - Game Over

ShadowLurker · Post Post #100 (ISO) » Fri May 23, 2008 4:04 pm

SleepyPanda wrote:
Can the same Tutsi be revealed on both rallies?

Yes.

SleepyPanda · Post Post #101 (ISO) » Fri May 23, 2008 4:57 pm

ShadowLurker wrote:
SleepyPanda wrote:
Can the same Tutsi be revealed on both rallies?
Yes.

Meh, then I'll have to

unvote

for now. Too tired to figure out odds tonight. I'll go do what I do best and sleep for now.

TDC · Post Post #102 (ISO) » Fri May 23, 2008 5:23 pm

Okay...

New numbers:

No Lynch:
Blocking chance: 3/10
Chance of getting the same investigation again: 1/4
Success rate: 7/10*3/4 = 52.5%

Lynching right:
Blocking chance: 0 in 1/4 of cases, (1/9+2/8=13/36) in 3/4 of cases
Chance of getting the same investigation again: 0
Success rate: 1/4+23/36*3/4 = 72.9%

Lynching wrong (the Hutu that had the result, that is):
Blocking chance: 3/9
Chance of getting the same investigation again: 0
Success rate: 66.7%

So unless I'm (again) missing something, claiming is now hugely better than no-lynch - even if we lynch the wrong guy.

SleepyPanda · Post Post #103 (ISO) » Fri May 23, 2008 5:50 pm

TDC wrote:Okay...

New numbers:

No Lynch:
Blocking chance: 3/10
Chance of getting the same investigation again: 1/4
Success rate: 7/10*3/4 = 52.5%

Lynching right:
Blocking chance: 0 in 1/4 of cases, (1/9+2/8=13/36) in 3/4 of cases
Chance of getting the same investigation again: 0
Success rate: 1/4+23/36*3/4 = 72.9%

Lynching wrong (the Hutu that had the result, that is):
Blocking chance: 3/9
Chance of getting the same investigation again: 0
Success rate: 66.7%

So unless I'm (again) missing something, claiming is now hugely better than no-lynch - even if we lynch the wrong guy.

Why is blocking chance on no lynch 3/10? Is the Hutu who gets the info factored in? I thought only rally leaders would be effectively blocked.

What about blocking chance in lynching? If there's 10 people to choose from to block, one reveals another, then isn't that 8 people left?

Hum. Bedtime for real now.

dahill1 · Post Post #104 (ISO) » Sat May 24, 2008 7:00 am

i have wireless, but still expect limited access until tuesday
im still in support that the person should reveal the Tutsi

SleepyPanda · Post Post #105 (ISO) » Sat May 24, 2008 7:11 am

Since the same Tutsi can be revealed, I also think it would be better to reveal and lynch now.

SleepyPanda · Post Post #106 (ISO) » Sat May 24, 2008 7:22 am

Actually I don't know.

Lynch

Scenario A:
Tutsi leader has 10 people to choose from to RB.
2 people ruled out for claiming.
1/4 chance to RB ralliers.
Lynch correctly, get new target.

Scenario B:
1/4 chance to RB ralliers.
Lynch incorrectly, 1/4 chance of wasting rally by revealing same target.

No lynch

Don't reveal, Tutsi leader has 10 people to choose from to RB.
1/5 chance to RB ralliers.
1/4 chance of wasting rally.

50% chance between scenario A and scenario B if we decide to reveal. Best case would be to lynch correctly and have another Tutsi revealed, however if we don't, we'll be in a worst case scenario than if we didn't reveal.

roffman · Post Post #107 (ISO) » Sat May 24, 2008 1:34 pm

the thing is, if we lynch wrong, we just don't rally that night as we then know who the tutsi is. we lynch him next day, then go ahead with the plan. and remember to factor in that the leader might be the one getting lynched

SleepyPanda · Post Post #108 (ISO) » Sat May 24, 2008 2:47 pm

It doesn't matter if leader gets lynched or not. Once he uses his commands, he's the same as a normal Tutsi, just that he has no friends.

Natirasha · Post Post #109 (ISO) » Sat May 24, 2008 3:12 pm

...did both leaders even rally? I'd think the person who got shown who was tutsi would be revealed by now.

roffman · Post Post #110 (ISO) » Sat May 24, 2008 3:21 pm

SleepyPanda wrote:It doesn't matter if leader gets lynched or not. Once he uses his commands, he's the same as a normal Tutsi, just that he has no friends.

but if he gets lynched now, he can't use his RB command

SleepyPanda · Post Post #111 (ISO) » Sat May 24, 2008 3:24 pm

I don't see how they couldn't have. They had THREEEEEEE days. And it was pretty much unanimous that both leaders.

I suppose the person who got the info COULD'VE been armlx. But for that to happen, the tutsi leader had to have eaten his Lucky Charm cereal that morning.

dahill1 · Post Post #112 (ISO) » Sat May 24, 2008 3:24 pm

Natirasha wrote:...did both leaders even rally? I'd think the person who got shown who was tutsi would be revealed by now.

i think it is most likely that both leaders rallied due to the numerous times we reiterated that they should. the only problem we have now is whether the person who received the name should reveal it (they should)

SleepyPanda · Post Post #113 (ISO) » Sat May 24, 2008 3:25 pm

roffman wrote:
SleepyPanda wrote:It doesn't matter if leader gets lynched or not. Once he uses his commands, he's the same as a normal Tutsi, just that he has no friends.
but if he gets lynched now, he can't use his RB command

Oh, right. Durr.

TDC · Post Post #114 (ISO) » Sun May 25, 2008 3:14 am

SleepyPanda wrote: Why is blocking chance on no lynch 3/10? Is the Hutu who gets the info factored in? I thought only rally leaders would be effectively blocked.

No, the receiver can be blocked as well.

TBuG · Post Post #115 (ISO) » Sun May 25, 2008 3:40 am

Back now;

I think the receiver should reveal.

TDC · Post Post #116 (ISO) » Sun May 25, 2008 3:50 am

roffman wrote:the thing is, if we lynch wrong, we just don't rally that night as we then know who the tutsi is.

Yeah, had that factored in already, but forgot to mention it.

So.. the plan looks like this:
We finally ask for a claim.
No claim -> No lynch -> leaders rally
Claim -> Tutsi lynch -> leaders rally
Claim -> Hutu lynch -> leaders don't rally -> Tutsi lynch -> leaders rally
Right?

I did not receive a result.

TDC · Post Post #117 (ISO) » Sun May 25, 2008 4:06 am

EBWOP: Just noticed that the "lynch wrong"-case has a block chance of 3/8 not 3/9, so a success rate of 62.5% still better than no lynch.

TDC · Post Post #118 (ISO) » Sun May 25, 2008 4:13 am

EBWOP2: *sigh* and I again forgot that the lynched Tutsi could be the Patriotic Front Leader, so it's in fact 0 in 1 of 4 cases, so it's up to 71% again.

Anyway,

could we have some prods?

Might well be that we haven't got a result yet, because pickemgenius or Xanatos Roulette or whoever else is absent received it.

pickemgenius · Post Post #119 (ISO) » Sun May 25, 2008 7:35 am

i am still here.

just a bit busy right now.

SleepyPanda · Post Post #120 (ISO) » Sun May 25, 2008 8:26 am

There's no reason to state that you DID NOT receive a result. That's just giving more information to Tutsi.

SleepyPanda · Post Post #121 (ISO) » Sun May 25, 2008 8:27 am

But in the end, I guess it doesn't matter? Buluargh. I don't know. Nevermind.

TDC · Post Post #122 (ISO) » Sun May 25, 2008 9:07 am

What information does that convey that not saying "I have a result on.." doesn't convey?
It just makes it easier to see who's read that we want to hear the result and doesn't have a result.
Take for example peg's post. Do you know whether he has a result? I don't even know whether he's read the thread..

SleepyPanda · Post Post #123 (ISO) » Sun May 25, 2008 1:13 pm

I posted without thinking it through. Since, if the person reveals, it's obviously that no one else received a result.

I was stuck on the fact that certain Hutu roles didn't even have the chance of getting a result and they wouldn't have responded. But like I said, it doesn't matter anyways. I understand what you meant.

Did not get result.

Voodo · Post Post #124 (ISO) » Sun May 25, 2008 2:06 pm

I did not receive a result either.