Mini #618 - Farside of the moon - over!

[Light-kun]

/confirm

[Light-kun]

Vote: Doktor Per

He made me laugh at a pun, and only scum uses puns.

[Light-kun]

*laughs* Thanks. Again, I don't think BB is in this game.

No, I am not against Jews, just puns.

*Thinks*
Kira is childish. Light-kun is childish. There is at least a 5% chance Light-kun is Kira. No, a lot of people are childish, so only 4%. Hm, people called this a circle jerk. I will stop making references now.

[Light-kun]

That is true; however, he never indicated it less than three. Hedid suggest that there is more than four. Dr. per, Iam still suspicious of you by defending yourself with a 'might be' cop phrase. However, ntenough to vote you yet. So for now,

Unvote

Note: I will look more closely tonight when I'm off work.

[Light-kun]

(. . .)this is all a inter Mafia scheme to distance us so in the end game, Dcorbe will be trusted and can take you hosers out one by one. HA HA HA!

Actually, I like pointing this out. Strong scum players use a long term strategy like this, and pointing out this possibility, true or not, is actually very smart whether he be town or mafia. (If mafia, it is a clever distraction.) Unfortunately, Dr. Per, your overall actions still come off as very scummy. Your defense makes very little sense, as Dcorbe pointed out. However, I am wondering if Dcorbe's aggression could be consider scummy. If a player is in Dr. Per's position, mafia would be smart to attack him in this manner. (That or Dcorbe is really dedicated to the town. I wouldn't know as I have't played with him before.)

All possibilities aside, I think that Dr. Per is pretty scummy, so he gets my vote. I will check back in the next few hours to see if I should change my mind.

Vote: Doktor Per

[Light-kun]

The breadcrumbing has been something that I never really understood as a claim. You obviously know what it is, so why do you think that Doktor Per would hint at being mafia? Looking at the past few of his posts and the fact that he did (if you include that inside information idea as a claim) three roles. So, I am fairly uncertain if he is a power role, mafia, or townie. So, for now:

Unvote: Doktor Per

Additionally, avoiding the main discussion does make Rogue seem suspicious, but I am going to wait for his response to the vote before doing anything, as it maybe that he wants his presence known, but is unable to post anything due to work, honey-dos, etc. Otherwise, I just wanted to know:

Mod: Is Greasy Spot still in this game or being replaced? Just never saw any news on him. (And sorry if I missed his post or your post explaining

[Light-kun]

My only real concern is that Dok is actually breadcruming that he is a power role, and he is using this seemingly pointless argument in order to distract the mafia. However, his behavior is still highly suspect and will need further review.

So, I am not going to vote just yet, I will wait until I hear the towns thoughts on this possibility.

[Light-kun]

After reading your last post,Dok, I strongly believe you are mafia. I apologize if I am wrong, but you seem very scummy in your long winded defense. Without the ability to see your past play style, I cannot defend you in that manner. Additionally, I have seen novice mafia play the noobie card or play without any seriousness in their game. So:

vote: Dokter Per

fixed

[Light-kun]

Um, thanks Dok. Unless you are a jester, in which case I am insulted. XP
I am only posting to say that I am not going to be able to post until Friday. However, I have, and I will continue to be, up to date. I will post if something big causes me to alter my vote. Till then!

[Light-kun]

Damn it, this is very bad news. What are the odds Dcorbe shot? Or that there is another vigilante . . . ?

Current thought process:

It seems that we have lost three players with possibility of four anti town players? Assuming this is the case, and just one of the anti town groups kill tonight, it is miss lynch to lose, huh?

Honestly, my immediate suspicion would have been on dcorbe for hammering a person who really had no business being a L-1 anyway. So, I decided to go back and look at who first diverted attention to StrangerCoug, aside from the deceased OGML and dcorbe. And that person is Greasy Spot. Greasy Spot voted StrangerCoug after completely thrashing dcorbe's argument and defending Doktor Per, who I highly think is scum. He also continued to defend Doktor Per on the semi cop claim incident. Also, his only reason for voting StrangerCoug is because he thought Stranger was putting too much pressure on Doktor. In this retaliation(page 6, 149), he managed to get several people to believe that StrangerCoug is mafia.

Including people who knew him to be a weaker novice. However, Cephir, unlike OGML, believed the argument Greasy Spot wrote despite the fact that it did little to actually make Stranger appear guilty. Doktor also found it to be happy to join, but as a new player, I can't say he isn't just being new. While other people were involved, the others who voted for him actually added some thought before voting. Stranger, just to note, did not actually go back to the GS argument, attacking Rogue Shenanigans. Nevertheless, these events, combined with last night's kills, I have decided that the following people are probably mafia:

Greasy Spot
Doktor Per (Who I always suspected...)
Cephir
and possibily: Rogue Shenanigans

Since I am without any kind of report or other material for today. I will stay with my earlier suspicion of Doktor Per until someone is able to tip my suspicion into their unfortunate favor.

Vote: Doktor Per

[Light-kun]

Unvote

As much as I want to see him lynched, the speed with which this is happening is potentially bad. I am going to at least hear what he has to say in defense for today. Unless, he is being bussed to make others look innocent. Hm, I cannot wait to see how this turns out.

[Light-kun]

I still strongly believe Dok is mafia, but due to our standings today, we need to be VERY careful on deciding who we kill.

*Thinks*

Icemane, why are you voting Gatekeeper...? (He never got on my radar so, care to elaborate for the rest of the class, aka, me.)

[Light-kun]

*sighs*
I can see rogue as guilty, but Dok's vote is making me a tad edgy. It could just be bussing though. I am going to wait for Rogue to defend himself there. Also, Dok, care to defend against accusation today, or do you plan on simply ignoring the fact you were at L-1 in four consecutive posts.

[Light-kun]

Prodded. I am now poking mod back saying, "Hey, I'm here!"

Okay, now then:

Brilliant guard Gurgi.

I still think DP is a good lynch. I always have, but I don't like the speed with which he was put a L-1. Now, as for Cephir:
He seemed to stick out now and then, but he never seemed like a serious scum possibility. However, I do like your reasoning that he is pushing for a lynch over scum hunt, and this intrigues me as to how he will respond. I will check back in a few hours to see.

[Light-kun]

No, that makes sense too.

@Cephir: I would NEVER say that if he were my scum buddy. I am just saying that it was a brilliant defense, though in mild sarcasm. We cannot forget that Rogue Shennanigans is suspicious, but so are you Cephir, which makes me think you are bringing up a side comment to blow it up, if anyone bites. However, you didn't vote me for it, which shows that you may just be bringing it up for future relevance. *shrugs* I will just leave it at that.

@Thinktank: You are making some sense. I looked back, and it specifically said: Shot and sliced. Now, the shot screams mafia/vig (but vig is the one shot.) The other screams something of serial killer, and since I am not going to say that I can think of another anti town role of similar signatures, I am going with sk.

@GS:

I don't see anything to make a Cephir lynch look good. But hey, I sucked on Day 1. I misread everything on Day 1 so I guess I will

vote: Doktor Per

Am I the only one who sees this as a cop out of day one activities, and an attempt to lynch someone else for yesterday activities? It seems kind of scummy and opportunistic. Jut a FoS here.

[Light-kun]

Oh, sarcasm. Nevermind then. Also, stop reading everything I do as scummy when it could just as easily not be. I hate it when people do this. Sometimes someone just gets it in their head that X is scum, and then everything X does starts having an ulterior motive. So, yeah.

I am not, I just think you have seemed slightly more scummy than town.
It is a bit in my head that Dok is playing us for newb and is scum on an alt.
Still, I can let this interfere with my play.


Anyway, cephrir, what did you get from the SC lynch about Dok? If you got Dok is mafia, care to explain your reasoning?

[Light-kun]

Okay then...
I doubt Dok is experienced, but it is a possibility.

I will reread a spot you seemed a little scummy to point it out Not exactly, omg you are scum, but slightly antitown. @work, sorry...

[Light-kun]

I like this post by Dok, actually.

We have a deadline of Monday, so anyone have a suggestion for a lynch?

[Light-kun]

And I noticed the Icemane, but until Ice responds, I am not voting or commenting.

[Light-kun]

Unvote

Forgot to do that.

[Light-kun]

Hm... I dunno. I see Icemane as more town than scum, at the moment.

Ice, care to make a case on RS/LG so LG can try to defend himself, and so I see what you are talking about?

*I will try to get a read through in asap, but I am getting busy over the next two weeks.*

[Light-kun]

Actually, Elvis has pretty much made my thought process for voting DP first thing on day 1 very apparent. I only backed off cause that bandwagon built WAY too fast. However, seeing as how the votes have fallen off, and my suspicions have not greatly changed, I am going after him again.

Vote Doktor Per

*sighs*
I must admit that he still appears to be the best lycnh. Now, my worry is that if we miss, we are down to about seven tomorrow, and this is assuming that mafia/sk don't hit each other...

Hmm...

Thoughts?

[Light-kun]

Please do. And I was at work using a touch screen.

Am I fishing for roles? No. Cop, DO NOT CLAIM as of now. My point is, however, is this:

If Dok is townie and there is a sk: we can assume there is 2-3 mafia (as per the norm), then that means that tomorrow, we will have 6 people -2 people that sk/mafia kill.
I am thinking that mafia and sk are probably not going to crossfire completely. *I assume vanilla for easy presentation) So:
Worst case: (assuming 2 mafia for mild hope)
2 mafia, 1 sk, 1 townie.
Town has (probably?) lost.
Next:
1 mafia, 1 sk, 2 townies. 50%, not too bad.
Next:
2 mafia, 2 townies: Town loses. (Or is it 2 mafia 3 townies...? Does mafia get priority over sk? Or is it a tie, and this result is possible.)
Best: (and least likely?)
1 mafia, 3 townies.

Okay, so, this is assuming we mislynch. If we lynch correctly, we have a better chance. (And at this point, I had rather wipe out serial killer to stop one night kill tonight than stop a sigle mafia.)
If we lynch a mafia, however:
Worse:
1 sk, 1 mafia, 2 townies. Not worse case ever....
Next:
1 sk, 3 townies
Next:
1 mafia, 3 townies
Next
4 townies.

So, it is my opinion that we make the best possible lynch. So, if this thought process hadn't hit the cop, and he knows that Dok is innocent, I really think now is just an ideal time to save him.

Now, I *am not* rolefishing. I can see how it looks that way, but I am just posting this as a possibility for *ANYONE* we lynch, assuming that they are townie or mafia. IMO, I think that best case right now is to lynch a mafia member. (Note, before typing this, I thought eliminating the possibility of losing two townies in one night was, but that isn't game ending if we kill a mafia member so... maybe.)

The only case, if we hit a sk is this:

3 townies, 2 mafia. (again, I am assuming two mafia because it is the only hope town has, *I think*)

If there is 3 mafia, we *have* to hit a mafia, and really pray for some crossfire, or I *think* we lose.

And, in typing this, I just realized the sk is third party, so if cop investigated serial killer, would he appear town? If so, forgot everything I said about the cop thing.

*I was thinking that a serial killer is "anti town" and would come up as such. But the report could say, "appears to be with the town," and that would send my entire theory straight to hell...

Anyway, just to clarify: Not fishing for roles. Just a rushed post, and apparently, a stupid one. I am posting this anyway to let my thought process be seen...

[Light-kun]

PLEASE READ MY

WHOLE

POST, OR IT DOESN'T MAKE ANY DAMN SENSE!!!


Btw:

Unvote

I will try and stay up a little longer to see Ice's post on LG.
And before I go to sleep, I *will* have a vote, just so everyone reading this knows.

[Light-kun]

Dammit, the deadline is in about 40 minutes and it appears that we have no better choices than Dok? I will check back in 20 and get in a last minute vote, just to give Ice a final chance to review. otherwise, I may have to go with my first thought.

Or... I might vote whoever has posted virtually nothing lately. Try to review and vote...

[Light-kun]

Based on voting patterns and the possible semi bandwagoning on Stranger, I can see this as a potential lead, but this is kind of a half baked thought:

Vote: Greasy Spot

I just see this based on some voting patterns and his absence of reasoning behind them.

[Light-kun]

Actually, you had more on Cephrir. I really didn;t have anything, picked out someone who seemed a little odd and voted them. *shrugs* Since I didn't get anything out of that reaction, I am just going back to Dok.

[b]unvote, Vote Dok[/b]

[Light-kun]

*picks up prod*
Sorry, I put my dog down this morning... 15 years of living and I want more out of him...
*sniffles*
I'll post in about 4 hours. I need to sleep.
*Because, I woke up 23 hours ago, with 2 hours of sleep before that. I am not exactly thinking straight, you might say.

I am so very sorry to hear. Take your all the time you need.

[Light-kun]

Okay, I am fairly certain of Cephrir at this point. And I can see Greasy Spot as scum, especially after his reaction to my vote yesterday. So, I am going to

Vote: Greasy Spot

(To avoid voting Cephrir, and pray more information comes to light)

and

FoS: Cephrir

Plus, can you quote the point Cephrir said GS seemed protown? Or at least give post number so I can reread that part...?

[Light-kun]

@Mod: Thanks. I was going to post about 8-10, here, but then I got depressed and slept for another 12 hours. *Onegaishimasu!*
Seriously, sorry I have been useless for the first part of day 1

[Light-kun]

EBWOP: *DAY 3*!!

[Light-kun]

Why three? Not optimistic? XP


@Killa: ...
*head slams desk*
COULD YOU PLEASE PARTICIPATE IN THE GAME! WE ARE IN A BAD SITUATION AS IT WITHOUT ALL THE GOD D--N LURKINESS.

[Light-kun]

Okay, I highly suggest everyone do a massive reread and do something similar to what I am doing. And at this point, I am not opposed to a mass claim.

So, in no particular order:

Confirmed:
3 townies
1 vig
1 cop

Scum:
3 mafia (assumed as worse case)
1 Sk

Now then, we have alive:
Greasy Spot, Cephrir, Killseven, Ice, Light, Think, and Gurgi.

If I had to pick out the scum and the town it would be as such:

Greasy Spot
Cephrir
Killa
Gurgi (Rogue)

And town would be:
Light
Ice
Think

And to be honest, I think that I have 2 (3?)/4 of the scum correct.

Now, in rereading day 1, the main actions I saw included:

Cephrir defending GS from my attack, and GS agreeing with Cephrir. These actions indicate something like buddying up. Now, Rogue has been scummy as all hell, to be honest. And Cephrir attacked Rogue, even voting him. Now, going off typical mafia relations, I feel it is safe to assume that Rogue (Gurgi) is serial killer, but still scum. As for Killa, Cephrir yelled at him a few times, but I do not think ceph voted Killa. Finally, for Killa, I Sebelius was somewhat suspect day 1, but due to lurkiness also. So, I am fairly certain he is more scum than not.

Now, Ice and Cephrir are virtually impossible to be scum buddies. Their relationship just flat doesn't work. (It is, obviously, possible, but I am just not seeing it much/at all.) And Think has seemed townie in my opinion. I, obviously, know that I am town, and I feel no need to explain why I am. You can decide that.

Finally, I can conclude that GS is most likely to be scum, with Cephrir as second best. Gurgi is probably SK, but I am not greatly worried about the sk, because if sk goes too kill happy, mafia wins.

Okay, any thoughts and responses? I really am going out on a limb cause this situation is just so god awful, I feel a need to throw in a bit of spice.

[Light-kun]

Over the course of the days, I have put reasons I suspect such and such. It is much more efficient to see reactions and post connections I have found. And actually, it is theoretically okay play to semi buddy up with someone, assuming you do so tentatively and only before a critical moment. With this, you can direct town's focus and not appear to be buddying up. Obviously, two people cannot sit there and agree with each other all the time and defend each other, but it is not bad scum play to support your partner.

This is still my thought, none of your posts today have altered my current thought process. However, I am pretty wavering on my town list.

*And obviously two of my scum are correct. It is near impossible to mislynch today, except that a sk death leads to our loss anyway...

[Light-kun]

LG, enough filler.

Killer, build your own case on Cephrir. You need to explain a bit and not just semi wagon all the time.

*Man, I will hate it if we lynch Cephrir and he is townie. I will be genuinely pissed.*

[Light-kun]

The only real problem with this game is that, save Killa, only townies looked genuinely guilty. I was still hung up on the strangercoug thing, because that random jump really pissed me off. If we had stuck to lynching Dok, that would have altered almost the entire rest of the game. *Like, I would have thought about Ice's scum possibility day two while it was still on my mind. Oh well.