Mini #618 - Farside of the moon - over!

[killa seven]

You have 0 posted suspicions. You are not helping town. You have 9 posts of two lines each. You have been prodded saying you would post more the next day, gave a one liner, then disappeared into the woodwork for four days. Questions?

ok.. makes sense.

[Cephrir]

You're right, I just said that my scumbuddy is my top pick for town. Yeah right. I suppose he has been lurking, but his behavior Day 1 was so different from his play in 547 (in which he was scum) that I find it doubtful.

I don't really want to claim just yet, as it occurs to me that it might be 3 mafia and an SK wanting me to claim right now. At least half of living, non-me players are scum, after all.

[Light-kun]

Why three? Not optimistic? XP


@Killa: ...
*head slams desk*
COULD YOU PLEASE PARTICIPATE IN THE GAME! WE ARE IN A BAD SITUATION AS IT WITHOUT ALL THE GOD D--N LURKINESS.

[farside22]

Quick and dirty vote count brought to you by a sleep deprived mod:

Cephrir 2 votes: (IcemanE, Lord Gurgi)
Greasy Spot 1 vote: (Light-Kun)

Not voting:

Greasy Spot
thinktank
Killa Seven
Cephrir


Day 3 Deadline: Monday August 11th, 11:00am PST

[thinktank]

Where is Greasy Spot?

Mod: Could we please get a prod on Greasy Spot. He hasn't posted since Monday.

Done!

[Greasy Spot]

Will be out of town on the 25th and 26th. Posting in all games.

Will post an analysis when I get back.

[Light-kun]

Okay, I highly suggest everyone do a massive reread and do something similar to what I am doing. And at this point, I am not opposed to a mass claim.

So, in no particular order:

Confirmed:
3 townies
1 vig
1 cop

Scum:
3 mafia (assumed as worse case)
1 Sk

Now then, we have alive:
Greasy Spot, Cephrir, Killseven, Ice, Light, Think, and Gurgi.

If I had to pick out the scum and the town it would be as such:

Greasy Spot
Cephrir
Killa
Gurgi (Rogue)

And town would be:
Light
Ice
Think

And to be honest, I think that I have 2 (3?)/4 of the scum correct.

Now, in rereading day 1, the main actions I saw included:

Cephrir defending GS from my attack, and GS agreeing with Cephrir. These actions indicate something like buddying up. Now, Rogue has been scummy as all hell, to be honest. And Cephrir attacked Rogue, even voting him. Now, going off typical mafia relations, I feel it is safe to assume that Rogue (Gurgi) is serial killer, but still scum. As for Killa, Cephrir yelled at him a few times, but I do not think ceph voted Killa. Finally, for Killa, I Sebelius was somewhat suspect day 1, but due to lurkiness also. So, I am fairly certain he is more scum than not.

Now, Ice and Cephrir are virtually impossible to be scum buddies. Their relationship just flat doesn't work. (It is, obviously, possible, but I am just not seeing it much/at all.) And Think has seemed townie in my opinion. I, obviously, know that I am town, and I feel no need to explain why I am. You can decide that.

Finally, I can conclude that GS is most likely to be scum, with Cephrir as second best. Gurgi is probably SK, but I am not greatly worried about the sk, because if sk goes too kill happy, mafia wins.

Okay, any thoughts and responses? I really am going out on a limb cause this situation is just so god awful, I feel a need to throw in a bit of spice.

[Cephrir]

I have a couple problems with your suspicions. Firstly, I don't see how GS would be scum with me. That'd be some pretty obvious buddying up and bad scum play. I also just listed him as my most protown, which would also be awful. But eh. Also, you don't give a lot of actual reasons for your suspicions, it seems like it's all based on connections, and LG is the SK in your opinion because he seems scummy but not connected to anyone. But sometimes townies agree with one another. So-- do you have actual reasons to find me and/or GS scummy apart from being connected to one another? Also, IMO k7 hasn't been lurking much worse than thinktank, though think's limited contributions have been more protown. k7 always lurks, so sadly this isn't a good tell on him. Oh, and btw, you say you think you have at least 2 scum correct, but if you're town it's impossible not to, heh.

I'll do something similar to that soon, maybe today and maybe not.

[thinktank]

Cephrir: If you think lurking is scummy. I don't see how in the blue hell you would not think Greasy Spot is scummy, and even more you put him on top of your protown list is even scummier because generally you don't put lurkers as pro-town because there's no such evidence. I don't know whether Greasy Spot is town or scum because honestly there's not enough to go on, so I don't see how logically you can put him on top of your "Most Pro Town List" with no evidence what so ever as well as miss him completely on your lurking list when you're compiling it as him and Killah are the the seemingly worst offenders to this.

[Cephrir]

I don't think lurking is a tell, usually. I meant to say that, but evidently I didn't. And I do have evidence, but it's meta-evidence. I suppose he is lurking though, and a bit worse than you. Nobody can ever beat k7 for sheer lurking power, of course

[thinktank]

I don't think lurking is a tell, usually. I meant to say that, but evidently I didn't. And I do have evidence, but it's meta-evidence. I suppose he is lurking though, and a bit worse than you. Nobody can ever beat k7 for sheer lurking power, of course

So you're basing your top town pick based on "meta". Sure meta can be useful some of the time but to definitively say something that is very contrary to the actual evidence presented seems like a really bad idea. I can't buy such an argument because its just really bad....

[Light-kun]

Over the course of the days, I have put reasons I suspect such and such. It is much more efficient to see reactions and post connections I have found. And actually, it is theoretically okay play to semi buddy up with someone, assuming you do so tentatively and only before a critical moment. With this, you can direct town's focus and not appear to be buddying up. Obviously, two people cannot sit there and agree with each other all the time and defend each other, but it is not bad scum play to support your partner.

This is still my thought, none of your posts today have altered my current thought process. However, I am pretty wavering on my town list.

*And obviously two of my scum are correct. It is near impossible to mislynch today, except that a sk death leads to our loss anyway...

[icemanE]

Cephir's reasoning for putting Greasy Spot at the top of his town list is poor. He has not said anything to convince me I'm wrong about his being scum, and as such I believe he should be lynched. I'm sure he's scum, and I doubt he is the SK considering his recent comments on Greasy, which just don't add up, and we need to lynch a mafia today, not the SK, if we want to win. I think he is our best chance for a successful lynch today.

Additionally, Cephir has several times used wifom to defend his actions - the most recent being this:

Firstly, I don't see how GS would be scum with me. That'd be some pretty obvious buddying up and bad scum play. I also just listed him as my most protown, which would also be awful.

This is the kind of stuff that you look back on after the game is finished and say, wow, he told us up front, we're idiots. I think it's clear he should be lynched.

[Cephrir]

I don't think lurking is a tell, usually. I meant to say that, but evidently I didn't. And I do have evidence, but it's meta-evidence. I suppose he is lurking though, and a bit worse than you. Nobody can ever beat k7 for sheer lurking power, of course

So you're basing your top town pick based on "meta". Sure meta can be useful some of the time but to definitively say something that is very contrary to the actual evidence presented seems like a really bad idea. I can't buy such an argument because its just really bad....

Well, based on in-thread actions, there isn't anyone I could normally say is clearly protown, so I've had no resort to subpar reasons.

has not said anything to convince me I'm wrong about his being scum, and as such I believe he should be lynched.

So... are you going to explain why you don't believe what I said in 336, or are you just going to ignore it and insist I'm scum anyway?

This is the kind of stuff that you look back on after the game is finished and say, wow, he told us up front, we're idiots. I think it's clear he should be lynched.

If you want to take it that way, I can't stop you. Have fun with that.

[Cephrir]

Okay, so alive we have 3 town players, 1 SK, 3 mafia (probably). One of the townies might have a power role, but that really doesn't matter much at the moment. If I had to guess...

Mafia (in order of likelihood):
Lord Gurgi
Killa Seven
IcemanE

People we don't want to lynch today (scummiest first):
thinktank
Light-kun/Greasy Spot (About equal, really, though I got some weird vibes from Light early on)
Cephrir

This is really hard to do right now given the lack of dead mafiates; not a lot of players have clear connections to others. I could just as easily see IcemanE as the SK and thinktank or Light being mafia instead of him. To be honest, Lord Gurgi is the only lynch I would be completely comfortable with today. Anything else leaves at least some doubt in my mind. If we weren't in LyLo, I'd want to pressure k7/thinktank/Greasy Spot, but we can't really do that given our position as they know we won't lynch them over it. Iceman moved up for ignoring my response to his case.

Actually Light, it's very easy to mislynch today since three of the opinions out there are from scum, so they can make the general consensus appear different from what the town's is. One of the reasons I'm thinking we have at least one lurkerscum is the lack of pressure on them in this day and others. Hmm... and actually I bet I know who that one is.

FoS: killa seven

[icemanE]

My response to 336:

Either one of the two turning up town would make the whole thing a null-tell anyway.

Why then did you continue to pursue Dok on Day 2? SC turned up town.

That wasn't accompanied by a vote, so it's not "jumping onto" him.

This fits in with what I said about not dedicating yourself to one side or the other. If you think someone's the play, you vote for them. Your voting patterns on Dok, which I mentioned before, were very wishy-washy.

Yes, his lynch would have and did provide a lot of info.

Earlier in the post you said that SC's turning up town made it a null-tell. What info did we gain?

[Lord Gurgi]

My response to 336:

Either one of the two turning up town would make the whole thing a null-tell anyway.

Why then did you continue to pursue Dok on Day 2? SC turned up town.

That wasn't accompanied by a vote, so it's not "jumping onto" him.

This fits in with what I said about not dedicating yourself to one side or the other. If you think someone's the play, you vote for them. Your voting patterns on Dok, which I mentioned before, were very wishy-washy.

Yes, his lynch would have and did provide a lot of info.

Earlier in the post you said that SC's turning up town made it a null-tell. What info did we gain?

I endorse this product or service. Also, Cephrir do you plan on using non-WIFOM to defend from this?

Cephrir, why do you find me scummy? Obviously you must have an extensive list of facts and accusations, since that is what you have expected from everyone suspecting you.

[Cephrir]

My response to 336:

Either one of the two turning up town would make the whole thing a null-tell anyway.

Why then did you continue to pursue Dok on Day 2? SC turned up town.

Because he was still scummy on his own? Like I said that I said that I said, the connection was not that important.

That wasn't accompanied by a vote, so it's not "jumping onto" him.

This fits in with what I said about not dedicating yourself to one side or the other. If you think someone's the play, you vote for them. Your voting patterns on Dok, which I mentioned before, were very wishy-washy.

That's because I wasn't certain.

Yes, his lynch would have and did provide a lot of info.

Earlier in the post you said that SC's turning up town made it a null-tell. What info did we gain?

From how people voted on the wagon. Without Dok having been lynched, a lot of the D1 discussion would be useless in finding scum.

Are those all the points you want to argue in 336, then, Iceman? So I take it you have no argument with the rest and/or are using a strawman by selectively ignoring the points you can't refute?

Cephrir, why do you find me scummy? Obviously you must have an extensive list of facts and accusations, since that is what you have expected from everyone suspecting you.

RS' wagon vote, which was the reason I voted RS/you to begin with, you got a little pissed about being waggoned, and my suspicions have only been heightened since then by your repeated insistance for no apparent reason that I'm scum and for the most part ignoring my response to your initial argument aginst me.

[farside22]

I will be out most of tomorrow. I will prod K7.

[icemanE]

@ Ceph - My post 340 addresses the other points you raise in 336 that I felt were necessary to refute.

[killa seven]

You're right, I just said that my scumbuddy is my top pick for town. Yeah right. I suppose he has been lurking, but his behavior Day 1 was so different from his play in 547 (in which he was scum) that I find it doubtful.

I don't really want to claim just yet, as it occurs to me that it might be 3 mafia and an SK wanting me to claim right now. At least half of living, non-me players are scum, after all.

The case on you is overwelming, it doesnt make you look good that you dont want to claim, why u cant think of a fake claim?

vote cepher

[killa seven]

I want him to claim, then i may unvote if it makes sense.
so no one hammer please un till he claims.

[Lord Gurgi]

His name is Cephrir. It's not hard.

[Light-kun]

LG, enough filler.

Killer, build your own case on Cephrir. You need to explain a bit and not just semi wagon all the time.

*Man, I will hate it if we lynch Cephrir and he is townie. I will be genuinely pissed.*

[Cephrir]

I am at lynch-1, someone unvote please so scum can't hammer. Light-kun is now confirmed town unless there are only 2 mafia. No time to talk right now, but I think it's very obvious k7 is scum.