Mini 607 - Cop Central [GAME OVER!]

[ZeekLTK]

Also:

Example, we can't ignore the possibility that Jenter, Day 1 lynch, and N1 kill are 3 of the 4 useful cops.

Now he's using misinformation to try to scare the town into doing what he suggests. Even if Jenter was useful, that has no impact on the game because the Retired Cop took his usefulness/sanity.

And going back to the "let's not investigate Aimless" - since Aimless claimed, it means he is going to get killed on Night 1, so the only reason you (

QoS

charter) don't want us to investigate him is so as few people as possible benefit from his claim/death.

[ZeekLTK]

AND - this whole "let's claim in order"

combine that with "let's not investigate Aimless" and that means the scum will pretty much be able to figure out everyone's sanities on Day 2 while hardly anyone in the town will be able to figure out their own.

Yeah, great way to come into the game buddy. Could you be any MORE anti-town?

[charter]

You're right about the retired cop taking his sanity. I'd forgotten about that.

A reason for everyone not to investigate Aimless. Say you investigated someone you now think is town first night, and they actually are. You investigate Aimless. Now what? You have two of the same reads. That's a big help. Whereas if you investigated someone you now think is scum last night, and they are, and you investigate Aimless, you MIGHT get something useful. Plus, it won't help us catch scum, unless we get some people to confirm sanities. You're trying to make it appear as if tomorrow, everyone will know their sanity. I'd be suprised if more than one REAL townie knew they were useful.

Everyone investigating Aimless isn't the right idea (in my opinion). Having some people investigate him, yes, but everyone, no.

[charter]

AND - this whole "let's claim in order"

combine that with "let's not investigate Aimless" and that means the scum will pretty much be able to figure out everyone's sanities on Day 2 while hardly anyone in the town will be able to figure out their own.

Yeah, great way to come into the game buddy. Could you be any MORE anti-town?

What problem do you have with claiming before others? Surely you shouldn't have one since you're God's gift to the town. If you have nothing to hide, then you should have no problem with an ordered claim.

[ZeekLTK]

Oh hey, did you guys notice that both QoS and Skruffs claimed to have investigated Aimless on Night 1? Hmmm...

[TDC]

Oh hey, did you guys notice that both QoS and Skruffs claimed to have investigated Aimless on Night 1? Hmmm...

And?

[TDC]

AND - this whole "let's claim in order"

If you really mean that you oppose a claim order (provided by Aimless) then I join charter in asking what the problem with that is.
Ensuring that the most scummy players claim first is a good way to make scum claim impossible results.

[ZeekLTK]

You're right about the retired cop taking his sanity. I'd forgotten about that.

A reason for everyone not to investigate Aimless.

Say you investigated someone you now think is town first night, and they actually are. You investigate Aimless. Now what? You have two of the same reads. That's a big help.

Whereas if you investigated someone you now think is scum last night, and they are, and you investigate Aimless, you MIGHT get something useful. Plus, it won't help us catch scum, unless we get some people to confirm sanities. You're trying to make it appear as if tomorrow, everyone will know their sanity. I'd be suprised if more than one REAL townie knew they were useful.

Everyone investigating Aimless isn't the right idea (in my opinion). Having some people investigate him, yes, but everyone, no.

Bolded: key word is "think" - that's the whole beauty of using the investigations to find scum - you can prove that someone is scum even if you don't *think* they are scum.

What happens if you investigate someone you think is town on Night 1 and then investigate Aimless? You *might* get a different result, and then all of a sudden the person you thought was town is suddenly a caught scum.

And it is a big help, because then you KNOW that the person you previously investigated IS the same alignment as Aimless AND when you investigate someone scummy on the next night you will KNOW they are scum if you get a different result.

Instead, let's say you investigate someone you *think* is scummy and get a different result. You don't *know* if the person you investigated is scum, or if the person from the first night is. That's not much of a help - and it could cost the town the game - especially if you're *wrong*.

[ZeekLTK]

If you really mean that you oppose a claim order (provided by Aimless) then I join charter in asking what the problem with that is.

You conveniently left out the rest of the sentance (I put a space so there would be emphasis on the main point (which was the second part).

AND - this whole "let's claim in order"

combine that with "let's not investigate Aimless" and that means the scum will pretty much be able to figure out everyone's sanities on Day 2 while hardly anyone in the town will be able to figure out their own.

[TDC]

I don't understand how the rest of your post is relevant.
Regardless of what else we do, the information that scum gain is exactly the same no matter in what order we claim. The information that we gain, however, can be maximised if we force scum to claim first.

[ZeekLTK]

The whole thing with scum fake claiming, I see only two scenarios:

1) Scum claim the same result as they got the first night so that their result is not of much use and no one can make anything out of it.

For example, QoS claimed a guilty on Aimless, if QoS is scum then he might just pick another townie and claim guilty on them too tomorrow.

2) Scum claim a different result as they got the first night in hopes that we lynch one of their two targets.

For example, QoS claimed a guilty on Aimless, if QoS is scum maybe tomorrow he claims an innocent on [someone] to try to get them mislynched.

The second is easy to catch (if we do believe them and lynch, then we will know they lied and lynch them the next day). The first doesn't really hurt the town at all so even though they are lying it won't matter.

---

The only way scum fake claiming can hurt us is if someone like TDC (just an example) is scum and they come out on Day 2 with two different investigations against two different players who are still alive.

TDC investigated me and got an innocent. If he is scum, tomorrow he could come out and say "oh, I got a guilty on [Player A]".

Now we are in trouble, because if we believe TDC to be town we will lynch either me or Player A - but the truth is BOTH me and Player A are townies. And, after we lynch incorrectly, TDC can just claim to be sane (if we lynch me) or insane (if we lynch Player A). Then tomorrow one of his scum buddies can come out with further "proof" against me/Player A (whichever is still alive) and get another mislynch, possibly winning if we don't lynch scum on Day 1.

This scenario (two different results against two people who are both alive) is the most dangerous to the town and it can be AVOIDED if we REQUIRE everyone to investigate Aimless - because then everyone will have at least one result against a proven target. So, continuing with this example, if TDC is scum and tries to get me mislynched by claiming a guilty on Aimless (instead of a random "Player A") - when I come up town everyone will know TDC is scum and lynch him.

The most dangerous thing tomorrow, IMO, is players who have multiple unconfirmed results. Therefore, everyone should have at least ONE result that can be checked against - either from Night 0's kill, Day 1's lynch, or Aimless - who will likely be killed on Night 1.

People who are advocating that everyone just "investigate whoever" are trying to put us in a situation where we can have players with 2 different results against 2 alive players - and that only benefits the scum IMO.

[charter]

Oh hey, did you guys notice that both QoS and Skruffs claimed to have investigated Aimless on Night 1? Hmmm...

Did you notice that they both said that BEFORE anyone know Aimless was the retired cop? Not even the scum knew he was until he claimed. You're grasping at nothing to make feeble arguments against pro-town players.

You're right about the retired cop taking his sanity. I'd forgotten about that.

A reason for everyone not to investigate Aimless.

Say you investigated someone you now think is town first night, and they actually are. You investigate Aimless. Now what? You have two of the same reads. That's a big help.

Whereas if you investigated someone you now think is scum last night, and they are, and you investigate Aimless, you MIGHT get something useful. Plus, it won't help us catch scum, unless we get some people to confirm sanities. You're trying to make it appear as if tomorrow, everyone will know their sanity. I'd be suprised if more than one REAL townie knew they were useful.

Everyone investigating Aimless isn't the right idea (in my opinion). Having some people investigate him, yes, but everyone, no.

Bolded: key word is "think" - that's the whole beauty of using the investigations to find scum - you can prove that someone is scum even if you don't *think* they are scum.

What happens if you investigate someone you think is town on Night 1 and then investigate Aimless? You *might* get a different result, and then all of a sudden the person you thought was town is suddenly a caught scum.

And it is a big help, because then you KNOW that the person you previously investigated IS the same alignment as Aimless AND when you investigate someone scummy on the next night you will KNOW they are scum if you get a different result.

Instead, let's say you investigate someone you *think* is scummy and get a different result. You don't *know* if the person you investigated is scum, or if the person from the first night is. That's not much of a help - and it could cost the town the game - especially if you're *wrong*.

You're still hung up on how can we catch scum if we don't know our sanities aren't you? If we're playing with a bunch of people that can't win games unless the cop spells it out for them, then there's no chance we're going to win this game. I don't know about you, but I've found scum without being told by the mod they're scum. I don't see why we can't continue doing that here, AND use our investigations to help us.

Notice how he just pretends like myself or TDC never asked him what's wrong with a claim order. For the third time Zeek, why are you so opposed to claiming in an order that Aimless picks?

[ZeekLTK]

I don't understand how the rest of your post is relevant.
Regardless of what else we do, the information that scum gain is exactly the same no matter in what order we claim. The information that we gain, however, can be maximised if we force scum to claim first.

The point was: he wants us to claim results AND randomly investigate people - this won't be helpful at all because most likely players who claim to have 2 different results will have the results against alive players (since they didn't investigate Aimless, which charter said he "doesn't advocate") - so only the scum will know which results are correct and the town won't.

[TDC]

I see. It sounded as if what bothered you was the order and not the mass claim itself.

[Farkshinsoup]

I think the question is whether we should be claiming our investigations at all on Day 2.

If we decide that we don't, then it's a moot point. If we decide that we do, then aimless should decide the order, because he's the only one we can trust. That having been said, just because Aimless's motives are clean, doesn't mean that he will necessarily come up with the optimal order, from scum up to town, TDC.

For example, he's pretty certain that I am scum, and he's wrong about that.

[ZeekLTK]

You're still hung up on how can we catch scum if we don't know our sanities aren't you? If we're playing with a bunch of people that can't win games unless the cop spells it out for them, then there's no chance we're going to win this game. I don't know about you, but I've found scum without being told by the mod they're scum. I don't see why we can't continue doing that here, AND use our investigations to help us.

Notice how he just pretends like myself or TDC never asked him what's wrong with a claim order. For the third time Zeek, why are you so opposed to claiming in an order that Aimless picks?

You're just doing what others did earlier about the "scum hunting" quote. I never said I was against the claim order and it was just PART of what the post was about (explained in 287).

Yes, we can scum hunt, but we should also be aware that we can catch scum simply by investigating them. I don't see how that is so hard to grasp - we have a mechanism that allows people to KNOW if someone is scum rather than trying to figure it out, am I the only one who thinks "hey we should probably use it"?

Yes, we all have caught scum on our own without using cops in other games - but we have all also lynched the WRONG players in other games because we incorrectly thought they were scum. The way this game is set up, once we can figure out our sanities we can avoid the "being wrong about our lynches" part and just lynch scum and win. Hey what a concept...

[TDC]

That having been said, just because Aimless's motives are clean, doesn't mean that he will necessarily come up with the optimal order, from scum up to town, TDC.

Of course not, but I think we can all agree that he's going to be unbiased.

[Farkshinsoup]

Yes, we can scum hunt, but we should also be aware that we can catch scum simply by investigating them. I don't see how that is so hard to grasp - we have a mechanism that allows people to KNOW if someone is scum rather than trying to figure it out, am I the only one who thinks "hey we should probably use it"?

You clearly aren't the only one who thinks that, so stop playing the martyr.

My problem with you is that you is the same problem that I have with aimless - you assume that anyone who doesn't see the logic of your argument is automatically "anti-town". I really dislike that use of groupthink to scum hunt, and I think that it will lead to mislynches.

[Aimless]

By the way, I think Aimless should decide on a full claim order for tomorrow.

This works for me. I was planning on posting a final list of my suspicions and reasoning before the deadline anyway; I can come up with an order then as well.

[Farkshinsoup]

That having been said, just because Aimless's motives are clean, doesn't mean that he will necessarily come up with the optimal order, from scum up to town, TDC.

Of course not, but I think we can all agree that he's going to be unbiased.

It seemed like in the post quoted below, you were implying that aimless would force the scum to claim first, which is why I tried to inject a little reality:

Regardless of what else we do, the information that scum gain is exactly the same no matter in what order we claim. The information that we gain, however, can be maximised if we force scum to claim first.

[Aimless]

I will post the list in the order of people I think are mostly likely scum. It will probably *not* have the three scum at the very top (even I'm not perfect), but I think I'm a good enough judge that most of the scum will be towards the top.

[charter]

The whole thing with scum fake claiming, I see only two scenarios:

1) Scum claim the same result as they got the first night so that their result is not of much use and no one can make anything out of it.

For example, QoS claimed a guilty on Aimless, if QoS is scum then he might just pick another townie and claim guilty on them too tomorrow.

If scum are going to make themselves appear to be useless cops, I have no problem with that. I'd rather them do that then impersonate a useful cop and be trying to steer us in the wrong direction.

2) Scum claim a different result as they got the first night in hopes that we lynch one of their two targets.

For example, QoS claimed a guilty on Aimless, if QoS is scum maybe tomorrow he claims an innocent on [someone] to try to get them mislynched.

The second is easy to catch (if we do believe them and lynch, then we will know they lied and lynch them the next day). The first doesn't really hurt the town at all so even though they are lying it won't matter.

So you're admitting it's easy to catch? Why do you have such a problem with it then?

The only way scum fake claiming can hurt us is if someone like TDC (just an example) is scum and they come out on Day 2 with two different investigations against two different players who are still alive.

No, he would just make us believe one of them is scum. I think we'd have more concrete evidence elsewhere, like someone claiming someone is scum AND knowing their sanity. Not like in your example.

TDC investigated me and got an innocent. If he is scum, tomorrow he could come out and say "oh, I got a guilty on [Player A]".

Now we are in trouble, because if we believe TDC to be town we will lynch either me or Player A - but the truth is BOTH me and Player A are townies. And, after we lynch incorrectly, TDC can just claim to be sane (if we lynch me) or insane (if we lynch Player A). Then tomorrow one of his scum buddies can come out with further "proof" against me/Player A (whichever is still alive) and get another mislynch, possibly winning if we don't lynch scum on Day 1.

You're entirely ignoring the fact that we're going to have 9 other claims. While I can't run numbers on this, I find it hard to believe they can do this without there being a discrepancy.

This scenario (two different results against two people who are both alive) is the most dangerous to the town and it can be AVOIDED if we REQUIRE everyone to investigate Aimless - because then everyone will have at least one result against a proven target. So, continuing with this example, if TDC is scum and tries to get me mislynched by claiming a guilty on Aimless (instead of a random "Player A") - when I come up town everyone will know TDC is scum and lynch him.

You're also twisting my words. I said I don't agree with Aimless's plan of an absolute everyone investigate Aimless. If people were to investigate someone else, they would have to explain why. If they didn't have a good reason (such as they are scum), they would look highly suspicious tomorrow.

I don't understand how the rest of your post is relevant.
Regardless of what else we do, the information that scum gain is exactly the same no matter in what order we claim. The information that we gain, however, can be maximised if we force scum to claim first.

The point was: he wants us to claim results AND randomly investigate people - this won't be helpful at all because most likely players who claim to have 2 different results will have the results against alive players (since they didn't investigate Aimless, which charter said he "doesn't advocate") - so only the scum will know which results are correct and the town won't.

Reread my post 273. You're twisting my words again. I was the one suggesting we DISCUSS if we should reveal tomorrow. I guess I should have wrote a big disclaimer in my posts so that you'd know I was putting it forward under the assumption we reveal (even though it was painfully obvious).

For the FOURTH time Zeek, what problem do you have with claiming first?

I think the question is whether we should be claiming our investigations at all on Day 2.

If we decide that we don't, then it's a moot point. If we decide that we do, then aimless should decide the order, because he's the only one we can trust. That having been said, just because Aimless's motives are clean, doesn't mean that he will necessarily come up with the optimal order, from scum up to town, TDC.

For example, he's pretty certain that I am scum, and he's wrong about that.

I agree entirely with your post. It doesn't matter if he picks a bad order, because I can't imagine he picks the three scum last, and anything else will be beneficial to the town in terms of trying to catch scum lying.

You're still hung up on how can we catch scum if we don't know our sanities aren't you? If we're playing with a bunch of people that can't win games unless the cop spells it out for them, then there's no chance we're going to win this game. I don't know about you, but I've found scum without being told by the mod they're scum. I don't see why we can't continue doing that here, AND use our investigations to help us.

Notice how he just pretends like myself or TDC never asked him what's wrong with a claim order. For the third time Zeek, why are you so opposed to claiming in an order that Aimless picks?

You're just doing what others did earlier about the "scum hunting" quote. I never said I was against the claim order and it was just PART of what the post was about (explained in 287).

Yes, we can scum hunt, but we should also be aware that we can catch scum simply by investigating them. I don't see how that is so hard to grasp - we have a mechanism that allows people to KNOW if someone is scum rather than trying to figure it out, am I the only one who thinks "hey we should probably use it"?

Did you even read my post past the first question? My point was that, even now, you're still suggesting that we need our sanities to win.

Aimless is right, unless he puts the three scum at the very bottom, it will give the town more info than scum.

[Farkshinsoup]

I will post the list in the order of people I think are mostly likely scum. It will probably *not* have the three scum at the very top (even I'm not perfect), but I think I'm a good enough judge that most of the scum will be towards the top.

To be honest, I have more faith in scum's ability to hide their identities from you than I have faith in your ability to figure them out, but whatever. You're our only option.

[Aimless]

Regarding the Player A gets a guilty on B and an innocent on C problem:

Obviously, either A, B, or C is scum in this case. If one of the three is dead, it's 50/50 regarding the other two, which should be good odds for the town as long as we are not yet in LYLO.

In the case where all three are alive, the odds are not nearly so good. Enough so that I would recommend the town treat that investigation as non-existent until one of the players alignments is known. (Well, really, I would say that we should try to avoid this situation - in fact, wanting to avoid it is the entire reason I offered myself up as a sacrificial lamb.)

[Aimless]

You're also twisting my words. I said I don't agree with Aimless's plan of an absolute everyone investigate Aimless. If people were to investigate someone else, they would have to explain why. If they didn't have a good reason (such as they are scum), they would look highly suspicious tomorrow.

And now, you are twisting

my

words.

I didn't say that everyone should investigate me. I said that everyone who doesn't already have an investigation on a known alignment (through having investigated me, Jenter, or whomever today's eventual lynch is) should investigate me.

The object is, by tomorrow morning, I want every cop in the game to have at least one result against a known alignment, because this categorically weeds out confusion between sane and insane cops, leaving only confusion between cop and scum. Anyone who claims to have found scum without having a known result is worthless, because of the potential for the confusion I mentioned in my last post.

Cops of unknown sanity are no better than townies. Thus, considering the situation on day 2, any cop who doesn't follow the plan as mentioned is a townie. Day 3 is less important, because (as has been pointed out repeatedly) there's a possibility we'll be in LYLO by then and no claimed results will be trustworthy.

As far as I can tell, there is no pro-town counter-argument to this. If you have one, I'd like to hear it.