New York 195: Adventure Mafia - Game over!

[Titus]

Copper, what did you mean by I've been good? I need to know otherwise I will make the wrong icecream order and shit might get bad if that happens. ETL, you can answer this too.

That good has nothing to do with ice creams.

So if I ordered ice cream, I should get ice cream?

[Titus]

also anen is scum. he slipped but I'm mobile so find it yourself.

I can roll with this. I don't like how he painted my last post as a Beetlejuice tell when persivul just ninjad me.

I agree with this. I didn't push your immediate post because it was

too

immediate. Just seemed like coincidence.

also anen is scum. he slipped but I'm mobile so find it yourself.

Yeah, because supposed scum slips are just such an accurate way of finding scum.

These two posts together are not a chainsaw. They are a wait and see approach. He's not even taking the same position on scumtells in back to back posts.

But he does? He dismisses them in both posts?

No. He says bettlejuice is a valid scumtell/slip, just not applicable to you here. Then, he says don't use scumtells/slips.

[Titus]

Chainsaw presupposes the slip is accurate. I don't think there is a slip. I am going with white knight. I do think the defense is scummy but Persivul wants to hang on the sidelines and not bus TBG or jump on his buddy driven counters.

Don't you find it coincidental that most of the counters to TBG have been suggested or pushed by my scumpool?

[Titus]

I've been saying it for quite a while now.

[Titus]

Why don't you vote the scums? I has sads.

[Titus]

Then why vote Anen over TBG or Persivul or Shorty?

[Titus]

He's been the largest wagon for most of the game day. Please take a look.

[Titus]

Right now I don't think he's scum. His 665. I'm doing the same as town many times. If he's town, there must have been at least one scum among those quick-votes. Zakk, Titus, Matt. Zakk is the most likely, but I wouldn't rule out the other names too. (If it's a Multiball – see one of my older posts –, there could have been two scums from different factions.)

As for Ircher. That game with you as an SK in. I was misreading Wake all the time. But Ircher's not Wake. So far I've met him twice and there were quite a lot of players scumreading him, although he was town both times. Even if I was scum in both games (and I may be biased because of this), I think this is a big difference between Ircher and Wake.

Context, he's saying that he's done the thing of 665 before as town.

[Titus]

thAts not how I read it.

Right. We disagree on somethings. That happens. Why can't we focus on the areas where we agree? That's what I should have been focusing on.

[Titus]

getting married

Congrats. I'll see you in dead chat soon.

[Titus]

Gah, why is everyone wanting to drunk post when I have to head over to my inlaws.

[Titus]

Hey,

Before you go, can you give me advice on working with ETL? I think we have largely same scumreads but for you and I'm having difficulties working with her.

[Titus]

@Egg, you're missing a few posts. ETL did quote it and I told her why she was wrong.

Can you just vote the real scum with me please?

[Titus]

@Egg, I have 5 of them. You can't find one to agree with me on? Not one?

@Copper, Your measurement of the fence is wrong. Egg belongs on the side with me and ETL, and so does Anen.

[Titus]

@Titus
If you don't have the numbers on TBG and we don't have them on Anen, Persivul seems to be a cross read between the two groups.

I'd be willing to go to Persivul. I'm spiritually voting any one of the scumreads I have. :nod:

[Titus]

Cy, has anyone ever accused you of using stilted or awkward language?

[Titus]

Titus, nope.

Drmy, zakk, and Brawl are among my strongst town reads.

Copper I lean town on.

And was Persivul the other? He's about on the same level as Copper for me.

I'd much rather lynch within Ircher/Seth/Killthestory/Huer/Lowell

Really? That's unfortunate that we cannot agree on a single scumread. Second, given the deadline, why haven't you been pushing a wagon from your scumreads? Third, all your scumreads are things suggested by my pool of scumreads. Fourth, they are all people who have annoyed others versus being scum (statistics,insults, sheepage, weaker engagement, and Internet access difficulties). Why was Lowell added?

Are you town?

[Titus]

Hello everyone, just joined the game.
Just noticed I am in a neighborhood with a few players, so thats a thing.
I guess that goes with the "Adventure" thing? Like an adventure party?

I don't know if i will honestly get to everything that has happened so far, but will try.

*blinks* Whaaaaat? Don't tell me who but how many are in this hood? Depending on size, I may want to know who. What is the activity like?

Saga called Sir Cakez. Adventuring parties?

[Titus]

I am not in a hood. Given there's four people in it, the likelihood of scum in it is high (but not a forgone conclusion). If scum are in it, they know the names. So would you tell us who is in there?

[Titus]

@Liger, Hardly. Knowing who is in a hood an give us valuable information. There's very little chance of 3 scum one town or all scum, so knowing who is in the neighborhood can help reset if someone has inaccurate reads. For instance, if someone scumread the entire hoid, we all would know they need a reset.

Second, the size makes it likely scum are in the hood.

[Titus]

That's the point. It is decided by the mod pregame. Most neighborhoods beyond 3 have a scum of any given faction. It's not universally true, but usually is. Setups tend to be balanced on it. Check the wiki.

[Titus]

@Liger, I would strongly prefer if you did reveal who was in the hood, but if it reaches D3 and we don't know who is there, I will very likely need to know assuming I am alive.


wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Neighbor

If you are one of three Neighbors, chances are reasonable that one of the other Neighbors is scum.
If you are one of four Neighbors, chances are very good that at least one of the other Neighbors is scum.
If there are multiple Neighborhoods in the same game, chances are very good that at least one of them has a scum Neighbor.
If you are one of more than four Neighbors, it is nearly certain that at least one representative of every anti-town faction is in the Neighborhood.

[Titus]

I mean I guess it can't do that much harm?
Its Me, copper223, Persivul, and MagnaofIllusion.

Thank you. This helps tremendously. It also reaffirms that my reads list is indeed viable.

[Titus]

Liger claiming the hood makes him more likely town, imo
I don't see scum claiming that right off the bat.

I felt the same.

Me three.

[Titus]

Oooo that's interesting. Not a fan of Titus pushing for so much info from liger right off the bat, but I find myself wanting to know too. I'm a sucker for free info.

Deadline extension much appreciated btw

Liger claiming the hood makes him more likely town, imo
I don't see scum claiming that right off the bat.

I am curious on why you think because of revealing the hood I am more likely town?
I mean given my thoughts earlier, I thought everyone was in a hood. Could I not have made a mistake and thought they were public knowledge already? So me confirming it essentially is just me relaying or reconfirming something someone else already said.

Scum on this site generally have pregame discussion. As such, they would know not everyone was in a neighborhood.

[Titus]

Basically that says most of your scum list is town, Titus LOL

Yeah, no.

In a 4p hood, it's likely one scum exists. There is one scum from my reads in the hood.

Why do you think that says my reads are wrong?

[Titus]

I didn't push Seth. I had Copper as a suspect but dropped him. Matt or Egg are in his place currently.

@ETL, The Brawl wagon is still a thing.

[Titus]

Yup. I am. If the votes go there, I am down. I am voting the largest wagon of my scumreads.

[Titus]

I want Titus to be town. she LOOKS town but I don't trust my gut there.

With the revelation of the existence and composition of the hood, town!Titus would have been all over me.

I have been all over you for ages.

[Titus]

liger is clearly town. one thing that hits me the wrong way:

liger says there's a neighborhood
titus says omg who b i bet theres at least one scum
liger says pers and magna
pers votes magna

Not a good look for pers there.

Hey, if you won't join me on TBG, can you at least vote Persivul? Anen is obvious town to me and I think almost all your FoSes are scum.

[Titus]

Oh and just for the record, no two people in my scumreads are voting for the same person as of 1506.

[Titus]

@Zakk, Copper had fallen out of the scumreads before the revelation of the hood.

That's a blatant misrepresentation.

[Titus]

That's not a handwaive. You argued that I suddenly dropped Copper from my scumreads because of the revelation of the hood. That isn't true though. I was starting to come around on Copper well before hand.

You have tried every single thing to not lynch my scumreads and now you're just voting me out of lack of recourse anywhere else. You've floated almost every other slot in the game.

So yeah...

[Titus]

since you realized it was not to your townie-image benefit to be scumreading more than one person in there, suddenly you're not scumreading copper any more

No, she was off copper before the hood was known. But yeah, she's probably scum. Titus and magna apparently want to scum read me enough to discredit me...but they don't really want to see me flip. That's scum.

Oh I do. I have 5 people I want to see flip. I got one vote.

The more you two scramble to protect TBG, the more obvious your alignment is.

[Titus]

Mod:Time until deadline including finding subs please?

[Titus]

TBG, Copper actually voted you before.

[Titus]

This is a bit of an ego post and it's hard to judge it's merit from my perspective, but if Titus, who is looking more and more town here, is right about TGB then Aneninen is also more likely to be scum and to my shame so is Egg; if this is the world we are in it suggests they may be able to communicate in some non standard way given the mod post because they'd need some read coordination to pull it off, ironically in this case part of the faction backing me up is probably the scum team, if so I hate you guys for doing this to me .

VOTE: TGB

How did you not see this?

[Titus]

And you didn't read the wall or notice his vote on you as it happened?

[Titus]

ETL, I think you're right on Persivul and Zakk. I also think they are hard defending TBG. Nothing TBG has done has been that townie. We do have an uncertain deadline and definite difficulties getting a wagon going.

[Titus]

Oh I definitely think Persivul is the scum in the hood, with a small chance of it being Magna instead, but I feel more town from Magna than from Pers. Copper and Liger are good town reads for me at the moment.

Titus, who's your second choice for scum in the hood?

Persivul.

[Titus]

Oh I definitely think Persivul is the scum in the hood, with a small chance of it being Magna instead, but I feel more town from Magna than from Pers. Copper and Liger are good town reads for me at the moment.

Titus, who's your second choice for scum in the hood?

Persivul.

What? who's your first?

Persivul. It was a smartass way of saying I am pretty confident in Persivul scum.

[Titus]

Magna vs Persivul is clearly town vs town. They aren't afraid of being in a smaller scum pool. So it looks like if there is exactly one scum neighbor, it's Copper.

Titus, remind me why you are flirting with a scum read on me. Is it still because I'm not willing to trust that you are town? And can you show exactly where Copper fell out of your list of scum reads? Because I thought it was after the neighbor claim too.

ETL, same question I asked Titus ^.

ETL's 1511 is basically my exact read on Titus.

I really can't see Persivul egging Titus and Magna on like this as scum. His 1557 is an over reaction towards Titus relating to Persivul's flip though. No one is going to go "OMG Persivul was town. What do you have to say for yourself Titus" unless they were already shitting on her reads. Also, if ETL was scum trying to push awkward wording as a scum slip, why would she concede to Titus that it's BS so easily?

Lowell how do you get that conclusion in 1515?

I'd like to see an actual answer from Titus as far as a second choice for scum in the neighborhood

It's because you cannot agree with a single one of my scumreads and you're basically not observing things in the game, even after they've already been explained. Copper already highlighted my reads progression on him quite well. ETL backed off because she saw the other interpretation. When the right context is pointed out, people can back off all the time.

I'm not giving you a second choice, because Persivul is scum. The ONLY reason I'm not jumping over to Persivul is because of this stupid deadline hanging around our necks and TBG having the larger wagon and having zero scumreads of mine.

[Titus]

This page looks more like town for Zakk.

Even though he's still drastically wrong about me.

No it doesn't to me.

This pattern is what scum have been doing all day. They push someone. A couple scum agree. One votes. No townies vote. They change the scumread to a townread. Meanwhile, TBG wagon has consistently had town on it.

Then there's Persivul wagon too which is good.

[Titus]

The ONLY reason I'm not jumping over to Persivul is because of this stupid deadline hanging around our necks

????????? wut

That's a really stupid reason to not vote for your "top scumread" when there is clearly support for it. We have more than a few days at least. If you truly believe he is scum, fucking do your Titus thing.

All five of these fuckers are my top scumread. I don't want to waffle from one scumread to the next scumread and not get a lynch off at all. I've been trying to reach out to you on that point for awhile.

At any given point, we can have 24 hours to achieve a lynch. SirCakez says we have one day after the replacements get in to achieve a lynch.

[Titus]

This pattern is what scum have been doing all day. They push someone. A couple scum agree. One votes. No townies vote. They change the scumread to a townread. Meanwhile, TBG wagon has consistently had town on it.

Also, no. First of all - what? The first part... you just described literally everyone's voting patterns in the whole damn game. Changing reads and pushing and agreeing or disagreeing. It's not a fucking pattern. Don't be ludicrous.

Second, the TBG wagon has NOT "consistently had town on it" because you don't fucking know who is town and who is not and VCA shouldn't happen until D2 at the earliest. It's a stagnating wagon that has been around all game and you aren't even asking yourself why.

Because I KNOW why the wagon stalled. We had quite a few fucking townies on VLA. Scum are avoiding wagoning the fuck together. They are just floating shit and backing off. I've documented this pattern, after I found the scum, not as a justification for them being scum.

They aren't scum because of VCA. That's stupid. I agree. They're scum independently of each other.

[Titus]

Deadline will be frozen at 1 day until the spots are filled. After both spots are filled I'll give an extension of undetermined length.

Yeah, this pretty much tells me that there's one day after the replacements are here. Anything else is mod mercy, and I'm not depending on time not promised to me. That's my problem.

[Titus]

Because I KNOW why the wagon stalled

You KNOW? How could you KNOW? You BELIEVE. You don't KNOW. If you KNOW then there is evidence you need to show me, not circumstantial theories, and everything at this point is circumstantial.

I have to say that it really bothers me how much you seem to be avoiding voting Persivul despite claiming how much of a scum read he is.

Let it bother you. Like I said, the MOMENT any of scumreads have the largest wagon, I'll be voting them. Zakk, Persivul, TBG, Shotty, Egg/Matt are all scum. I am not risking a no lynch with town finally starting to coalesce.

I know that because I've actually been here and you haven't. I've been telling stating this for awhile. I observe the fucking patterns here.

[Titus]

The extension will be at least 48 hours, I'm just not sure if I'll do any more then that.

Ok.

VOTE: Persivul

That'll mean at least 3 days to swing his wagon, and that I think is doable.

[Titus]

Copper... what the fuck comment are you even making here? How is this game relevant in any way whatsoever?

Do something or get lynched.

Stop making retarded posts and being rude motherfucker.

I'm being rude yet you are calling my posts retarded?

You. Are doing. Fucking. Nothing.

Grow the fuck up. I'm not here to be your best friend. I'm here to catch scum.

Copper, you want to piss me off royally. Use that goddamn word again.

[Titus]

the MOMENT any of scumreads have the largest wagon, I'll be voting them

??? Since when do you wait for that to happen...?

When the other wagon is also my scumread.

[Titus]

I know that because I've actually been here and you haven't. I've been telling stating this for awhile. I observe the fucking patterns here.

Just because I went V/LA for a few days doesn't mean I didn't read the thread when I got back.... Are you saying that I'm incapable of determining patterns in the game? This is such a sideways discredit, it's really gross, Titus.

You've said you didn't bother to read it. I don't mean to be discrediting you as we fucking agree with all our reads. Jeezus. Yet, you're playing semantics with saying how I can know something versus just strongly believe it. Watching patterns is what I do. You want to call that strong belief, whatever. I don't want to fight with you. I will if we have to. I think you're town and I think you're right on your reads on Zakk and Persivul.

[Titus]

I support Titus's point that we have a day to get the lynch in and so should everyone else, banking on an extension is really stupid or coming from scum.

@ETL
Yep, I am commenting on your play (which is abysmal if you are town), you are throwing around insults, which gets old really fast.

In fact I if you continue I'm going to just do the standard thing with your kind, policy lynch every time I have the misfortune of not catching you in the list before the game starts.

I don't think so. ETL and I have fought much harder than this in the past. We aren't policy lynching because you two cannot get along. Blacklist each other if you must, but put it aside here. No one is going to make you two work together but I strongly think (I'll try to use this instead of KNOW) you both are town and you two squabbling does nothing for the town.

I'm not saying you two need to like each other, but if you both are townreading each other, the pissing match does nothing.

If I'm wrong on you both townreading each other, then get that shit sorted and I'll just wait on that.

P.S. Please vote Persivul.

[Titus]

You've said you didn't bother to read it.

I never said that Titus... I read all 30+ pages of content that accumulated while I was gone.

That's what I thought you said that you didn't. If you had, that's MY mistake on misreading that. I've been supposing you hadn't and jumped right in after arriving.

[Titus]

I think you're right on your reads on Zakk and Persivul.

I am changing my mind about zakk. I dislike his personality but I think he's town.

*throws hands up* At least we're agreeing on Persivul. I like it. Magna likes. I think Kill will like it. You like it. Lowell likes it. That's almost all the strong voices in the game working together.

It's been like impossible to get a wagon going, and I'm just really frustrated about that.

[Titus]

I need to correlate who has been floating Multiball speculation but is thinking that only 1 scum might be in the Neighborhood.

I'm looking forward to the results of this. If you'd like, I could help in the task as well. That does seem like a harder task to accomplish but very worthwhile.

[Titus]

This page looks more like town for Zakk.

Even though he's still drastically wrong about me.

if pers turns out to be scum you have nothing to worry about. his lynch is not a great idea though.

and personally i think lynching from within the neighborhood and hoping to hit scum is a terrible idea.

i'd much rather lynch someone outside the hood.

Why? The neighborhood has, provided the wiki theory is accurate, 1/4 odds of hitting scum

at worst

. Then there's presumably lower odds in the rest of the game. With 4/5 in 17. 4/17 = worse. The only way for it to be strategically advantageous to lynch outside the hood is if you're supposing 6 scum in the game.

[Titus]

I'm looking forward to the results of this. If you'd like, I could help in the task as well. That does seem like a harder task to accomplish but very worthwhile.

Actually that would be helpful ... if only collating the active Multiball theory espousing players.

Seth's slot I would count. And I know Shotty floated it. It is going to take some time to ISO everyone and search for multiball / multi.

I'll take the top half and search multiball, you take the bottom half?

[Titus]

I want Titus to be town. she LOOKS town but I don't trust my gut there.

With the revelation of the existence and composition of the hood, town!Titus would have been all over me.

@Persivul
Why are you so eager to flip if you aren't even sure that Titus/ETL are scum and pushing on you?

First, it was partially a test. Scum!Titus should have been all over me with news of the hood. Instead she just hangs on the TBG wagon.

Second, when is town ever sure? Right now I would say:

ETL - scum
Titus - probably scum, possibly bad town, but as she's taken a leadership role the latter is still pretty damaging
copper/liger - one of these is scum

So which one is it Persy?

[Titus]

That's setting aside the fact I have been pushing you as scum for the entire game anyway..

[Titus]

yes but if I'm wrong about pers suddenly that difinitively makes me scum which is wrong and ridiculous to me. it sets up for a mislynch we may not be able to afford.

why do you feel lynching outside the hood is better?

You're not getting mislynched if I have anything to say about it. If you're getting lynched, it's because you're scum. I think the push on you is shit and I have you as hard town.

[Titus]

@Zakk

Before he answers, I have opinions on this, but I want to know what you think the answer is

If there is no real conviction behind it scum_persi is playing the: idgaf lynch me card because that's against his alignment so he would normally only do so as ticked off town, in an effort to WIFOM us into town reading him.

If he is town he is doing so out of frustration with how the game is going and I don't think it's a good idea.

If you think Persivul is scum, you should join us on Persivul. He's scum, plus the wagon is all town (fmpov).

[Titus]

So which one is it Persy?

Just a mistake. The more recent should read town!Titus. A you said yourself: "The only way for it to be strategically advantageous to lynch outside the hood is if you're supposing 6 scum in the game." So, I'm as strong a scumread as any you have, and I'm in the hood. You should have been on me. And no, you haven't been pushing me all game. You put an OMGUS scum read on me after I started questioning you, but you haven't pushed at all. Just the opposite - you've fought to stay on TBG and NOT push me.

This is many levels of wrong. I've asked people that if they don't agree on TBG to join on my other reads. You are included. This is basic trying to scumpaint the obvious fact that I don't have 5 votes.

[Titus]

Persivul is scum for repeatedly taking things out of context and straining to firm arguments. He's white knighting/hard defending ETL at the moment which is awkward as crap. For instance, he's been focused on having it be ok for ETL to jump on my wagon with no reason that fits the current game state. Just reread the last few pages and you'll get the idea.

This is your first reason given for scum reading me - hard defending ETL. You now have ETL as a full town read...

Right. That's not OMGUS. Your white knight of ETL was scummy. The main reason I doubted my ETL read was Zakk misrepping to wagon her. You're basically just trying to rehash the entire thread again.

[Titus]

Spoiler: For Matt

Why do you feel that? It's the exact opposite of how I feel about him. Which posts felt really genuine?

I could've just said nothing and been able to jump on them if I wanted to. I did want to potentially vote either of them down the line. I thought it read like SvS. I still think it reads like SvS. No shit I'm going to want to vote people I think could be Scum.

I've lost the thread. What felt like Scum-vs-Scum?

The initial stats discussion between Ircher and Shotty. It felt like artificial, forced conflict rather than genuine. Their interactions still feel off to me.

I am just going to be on the biggest of TBG Copper and Shotty. I like all three wagons. Normally that doesn't happen.

I dislike this a lot. Reads as Scum who wants to avoid spearheading one particular lynch to me. The townie version of this post is like "I'll support XXX, YYY, and ZZZ wagons. I think YYY wagon is the best right now though".

Are you hoping that a Titus-wagon will suddenly gain momentum?

Not particularly, no. I scumread him but he's not in my top 3, as you can see in the reads list I posted. Additionally, a lot of my read on him is relative to Ircher/Shotty. Scumflips from either of them would make me more sure on Titus, and less if they're Town. I'd rather see them die first - they're scummy on their own and help me read Titus.

I could've just said nothing and been able to jump on them if I wanted to. I did want to potentially vote either of them down the line. I thought it read like SvS. I still think it reads like SvS. No shit I'm going to want to vote people I think could be Scum.

Didn’t you just knock Titus in 516 as scummy for leaving her options open to jump to different lynches? Because I read this response as being exactly what you are damning Titus for.

Why do you think the early exchange is Scum versus scum? Please elaborate.

No, you misunderstand me. I don't think it's scummy to say "here are the three lynches I support". I think it's scummy to say "here are the three lynches I support, I'll be on whatever's biggest" rather than "here are the three lynches I support, and I currently prefer _____ Lynch". The former says to me that you don't have any actual scumreads, because if you did, one would naturally be the most appealing for some reason.

The whole "you're dead" thing and the stats discussion coming off each other are both pretty dumb, and the stats discussion comes from nowhere. It reads to me like they wanted to distance early D1, and after the daykill thing started to lose steam they had to come up with something else, and that spawned the stats argument. Go read the first 5 pages and tell me that Ircher/Shotty don't fit the description of two scum who decided on a hard distance gambit.

Also, I doubt scum-Ircher would go on with those hard-to read ISOs after the general dislike he got from almost everyone because of them.

What do you all think of this?

I disagree. I think if he had stopped after we said it wasn't going to give him townpoints, it would have been a clear indication he was only doing it for townpoints.

Like this post. Brawl seems to be able to defend himself well, and the reads he has aren't really far-fetched imo. When I factor in the possibility for biased opinions, his posts seem fine.

@Ircher - Let's walk this through Ircher. That post is scum posting. Scum love to hedge and hawww. Second, everyone is biased. We all have cognitive biases. The key to scumhunting from my point of view is finding out if these biases make sense and tracking a train of thought because I don't do as well with emotionally reading players.

Paragraph 1 - "Ircher or Shotty is scum. There's something "weird" between them." He's doubtcasting your slot here while leaving open a bus on Shotty. That's why these dual reads "there's something off here" without doing anything to resolve them are 100% pro scum.
Paragraph 2 - "I don't want to push Titus, but I'd gladly jump on her if she gained momentum." It's consistent. He's practically yelling at us that he'll never make a decision or push anything. He'll just have his "gut" reads and do nothing considering gut can't really be proven false unless just ridiculous to have pairings together.
Paragraph 3 - He's playing semantics here at best, but he's painting attempts at town cohesion scummy but lurking as a protown manuever.
Paragraph 4 - More doubtcasting Ircher and dismissing common sense townpoints as wifom.

If someone tells you at the outset that they have zero desire to push lynches, just sets up categories for save voting, and discourages townreads; quite often, that player is scum.

@Egg, Given how I feel about Zakk, I have little desire to lynch ETL either.

As for TBG, his posts are all hollow and ignore things he should be thinking about. ETL was right. His start was all gut. He technically starts to provide reasons later but they aren't fleshed out or followed up on. His reads make zero sense whatsoever in his readwall. He was vote parked on Ircher for quite awhile. He moved to HA at the same time as the pressure and doesn't discuss his own wagon.

Right now, I want a scum lynch but I feel mostly only scum are posting.

I moved to HA with the pressure because there was a good case on him posted, which prompted me to ISO him and see that his ISO was shit. I don't go around randomly ISOing low-content players usually. Voting someone because a case was posted on them is pretty standard.

Why the hell would I comment on my own wagon? FMPoV, it's a wagon on town. I'd rather discuss wagons on potential Scum. If I get you off of me, but you just ML someone else, I don't gain anything.

Reads updates:
Nahdia's first posts were really good, but the whole trying to be cute and lack of any explanation on the switch to copper has me confused - lean town
The points made against KTS are valid and I don't read his tone the same as I used to. He reads to me as intentionally obstinate as a meta-gambit which is inherently null. (also AntiTown, but null)
No update on Heur. His posts since my vote don't have anything substantial in them to sway me one way or the other.

These look fabricated as hell –

No reason to say Nahdia’s posts were really good. Sorry, there isn’t. They are at best contentless lists with no way to discern the whys and wherefores of the read. There hasn’t been a bit of explanation in any of her posts so why only the move to Copper confused him puzzles the heck out of me.

The Kill read his is a complete no-read. He acknowledges that the thinks points made against kill are valid (and solidifies his Town read on Expedience for pushing Kill) but says that kill’s playstyle is aggressively null. If the points that kill as scum are good why is he landing on null for the Kill read. Or more precisely – why voice it at all when it is just a no-conclusion?

He’s voting Heur so how are Heur’s posts not “swaying him”? He’s already gotten a scum read as evidenced by his vote. If Heurs’ posts were not Town convincing he logically should have said something like “Heur continues to post nothing Town oriented at all so my scum read is well placed”. But instead he posts this which reads as “I’m not updating my read so I am waiting to be swayed by Heur to either Town or Scum”

I voiced my read on Kill because I had a prior Town read on him based on tone. Going from Town to Null is an important shift. The points were enough to shift me from a town read to a null read. Kill is intentionally playing hard to read, which is shitty, but as long as he's doing that I'll probably have him at solid null.

Huer's recent posts were all null. Hence, nothing in them swayed me from liking my huer vote. It is a no update in my read. I don't know why you seem to think I'm waiting to be swayed to town or scum on him - I'm pretty clearly reading him scum. I was waiting to be swayed from "likely scum" to "def scum" or "null". He's got jack all for content, so as much as I think what he has is shit and pretty scummy, my read on him is still very malleable due to the amount of content it's based on.

This post also feels genuine to me fyi.

@Ircher, Come on answer me as to why that post "feels genuine"? Look at the motivations at the time it as posting.

To understand that post, you also have to look back at his vote on HA. As the wagon on him forms, TBG is nowhere to be seen. When he comes back, he sheeps a case saying it is good. (The case isn't good but we'll be giving that the benefit of the doubt for this argument.) He's saying he doesn't go ISOing weaker players. He's framing the argument as unreasonable rather than addressing the concerns. My concern is that his "reads" were not there and made no sense. That's precisely what he voted HA for. Yet, he doesn't actually defend or actually give any sort of read.

He then later OMGUSes Seth for sheeping a case onto his wagon when Seth was wagoned. That's exactly what TBG did. The hypocricsy there isn't genuine at all.

The latter paragraph TBG is deliberately excusing himself from ever reading Kill the story. If I felt a player was obfuscating their read deliberately, my first thought is why.

@Titus
Maybe the problem lies in the fact I often don't fact-check posts. What I read, I generally try to take at face value.

Pedit: Suits me Shotty. I got a 5 day V/LA coming up; I cant just stay on the Shitty wagon when no one's willing to join. There's more than 1 scum fyi.

Now catching up with the rest.

[Titus]

@ETL
Scum to null.

There's a decent chance Anen slipped when he paid too much attention to my comment to Persivul (when Persivul claimed it was bad that ETL/Titus started the game working together and I asked him, what if they are both town?) and Anen's reply (you make a good point but Persi. has done something unrelated that I find townie so I'm going to ignore it) seems like a cautious buddy defense.

Magma is a hard read because of OMGUS but if scum is aligned close to the block Titus is proposing he is more likely to be town here and if he is better at reading LHF's than me and Seth/Ircher are both actually town him being suspicious does make some sense.

Liger outed the hood, it's a move I've seen scum do to gain easy cred cause town is starved for info and when you get some you're prone to thank the bearer and consider him on your side irrationally, the rest of his posting though doesn't ping me as especially scummy, he has more of a clueless helpful air.

And yes, that was Seth's reply.

@All
TBG's 1734 is not half bad, it's possible he is conf. biasing on Titus and that's why he endorsed Zakk's horrible read a few pages back.

That post is fucking terrible and fails basic stats. I am supposing myself as town under the calculations.

[Titus]

Current thoughts:
The idea that the neighborhood is 1 scum is terrible imo. You're absolutely outguessing the mod on this, and it reads like a very easy way to set up chain-mislynches. I read the whole neighborhood as Town, tbh.

Titus's math on the neighborhood raises several red flags. From the PoV of a non-neighbor Town, assuming 5 total scum, and 1 in the neighborhood, the odds of hitting neighborhood scum are 1/4, and outside of that, it's 4/16, the same odds. If you're Town, you should automatically exclude yourself from being scum, obviously. Titus isn't doing that math from the PoV of TownTitus, because she can't, so instead she's doing it from a fully neutral view. Secondly, again assuming 5 total scum, 1 neighbor-scum, from a neutral PoV, the odds are 25% and 23.5%. Why the fuck would you ever pick which pile to lynch from for a

less than 2% increase

in odds? Shouldn't any reasonable Town player be far more confident in their reads than a >2% boost, which is only true if the set-up speculation is true, which is already a stretch?

Pers's ISO has me going both ways a little bit, but I settled on a town lean. I feel for him when he said "lynch me". I feel pretty damn similar. This game has been misrepping and confbias out the ass, while you're letting low-content/scummy content players like Seth and Heur off for free, while they get a front seat to watch the thread just devolve into crap.


Fuck set-up speculation, fuck lynching on math instead of reads. One of Seth/Heur needs to die. The bigger wagon right now is Seth, so join me on it.

That's wrong. It's 4/17. I know I'm town. That doesn't mean everyone else knows that. You don't put in hidden information when counting probabilities. That's not how things work. Second, even if that was true, that would make the odds smack damn even. Then, if we actually hit right in the neighborhood, many people would be highly suggested to be clear.

Second, this implies that I'm not at all confident in my reads because I'm not doing what he wants. That reading is inconsistent with the thread. I've been saying zakk, TBG, Persivul, Shotty for AGES now.

Third, this is a pity me shitstorm at the end. Ooh there's mislynch bait that town isn't going after a policy lynch, the thread is crap woah is me. It's nonsense.

[Titus]

@Titus
He went back and checked your probabilities, now maybe he is scum looking to grasp at straws before falling off the cliff, but at least he found something he could try to hang on to.

Do you have examples in other games of doing probabilities without factoring in information only you were aware of?

Any other game where I do probabilities. The one that just ended by Varsoon is a good one. Space Dandy 2.

[Titus]

Liger, it doesn't.

[Titus]

That's accurate but misleading.

The mod doesn't use a mathematical formula to assign roles. Yet, there is a certain framework that's required. Ideally, each team should have an equal shot of winning. This statement gives us a basic framework to build from and certain conventions established. That framework is where we draw the 1/4 scum and the 4/17 outside the hood.

[Titus]

Do those conventions have to be true? No. Yet, we suppose it to be true.

[Titus]

Yes. I made the acknowledgment in that post because A) I was conftown and B) It was atypical to exclude the post.

When I actually did analysis, you'll see that I used actual numbers, it was 1/X.

You can cherry pick anything when you try to divorce it from the context.

[Titus]

That has been your entire ISO. Playing semantics, misrepping, lurking, and easy pushes.

[Titus]

Well, it's pretty clear I'm not convincing most scum to bus. You're telling me what I already know. You sat as a viable wagon for days with your buddies scrambling to counter.

From the perspective of any town player, It's 4/17 with one known possibility. That's not how analysis is done. Deductions are reached so EVERYONE can get to the same place without the presupposed knowledge. It prevents the stupid but "I'm town" but "he's scum" argument.

It's bothering you that you're caught. You haven't actually done anything to sort people and now you're trying to pick a fight with me to show how brave and macho you are. You're trying to paint me as someone who doesn't reasses. Do something that's actually worth reassessing on your slot. Stop pretending like you're not hard defending your buddies would be a start. Yet, that's what you're doing and what they are doing to do. You've also never dealt with me. See Klingoncelt getting flipped in YBCA IV. Town recognized each other and stuck Klingoncelt to the wall.

You don't want my pity. I'm not giving you pity. You've got a scumread. I don't feel sorry for you at all. You've frankly had it easy due to the massive VLA.

Second, if you want Seth and Heur lynched, you're going to have to do one hell of a justification because they are textbook policy lynch pushes. You're old enough to know this by now.

[Titus]

Yes. I made the acknowledgment in that post because A) I was conftown and B) It was atypical to exclude the post.

When I actually did analysis, you'll see that I used actual numbers, it was 1/X.

You can cherry pick anything when you try to divorce it from the context.

Go pull up posts where you didn't do that shit then. You told me to go look at the game, I pulled the very first quote I saw.

Nah, the post you saw clearly demonstrates the fact that it's abnormal to exclude yourself from the possibilities unless conftown. I clearly showed that. I don't need to gather more posts for you to nitpick and quibble. I've grabbed one. You can try to show where I didn't do what I actually did.

[Titus]

Yes. I made the acknowledgment in that post because A) I was conftown and B) It was atypical to exclude the post.

When I actually did analysis, you'll see that I used actual numbers, it was 1/X.

You can cherry pick anything when you try to divorce it from the context.

Go pull up posts where you didn't do that shit then. You told me to go look at the game, I pulled the very first quote I saw.

Actually, wait, I think this is a straight lie. You got lynched in that game.

Titus was lynched on Day 6. She was Smart Dandy, aligned with The Space Protagonists.

Who the fuck lynches conftown?

I was lynched due to misleading mod statements. You should check the fuck out after I got lynched. No one suspected me and I was confirmed town. That happens very rarely. It was a very angry post game.

You seem

very

familiar with that game for having known about it for all of five seconds.

[Titus]

And you seem to think I'm focused on defending myself. I'm not justifying myself to you. There's a difference between correcting blatant misrepresentations and proving your scumread as scum and defending yourself. You're not my audience for what I'm saying, the town is.

It's not deceptive to claim that I was conftown lynched due to mod misleading statements. It's the truth. It's not the least bit deceptive. To say something deceptive, the statement I would first have to say is untrue.
Again, it's not deceptive to highlight my post is actually consistent with my own thinking. You're going to portray it as a fiction.

You and Pers have attempted to do a rhetorical damned if you do damned if you don't. If I am voting you, your buddy argues that I'm not pushing him. I vote him, you argue that my belief it's genuine. I already highlighted that before. I can be equally confident in two scumreads and only have one vote.

Also, you never did justify why you wanted Seth/Heur. That's a classic diversionary tactic. Select only the parts of the post you want to respond to and ignore the rest. Everyone knows that Seth would be policy lynched for being a dick and to save the mods the hassle of replacing the slot. HA again, policy lynch. Yet, you can't defend against that, so your response is to throw more misreps.

You know what's REALLY pissing me off. Every single time a decent case gets posted on one of the scum team, another scumteam member spams the fuck out of the god damn thread. I posted a case that got traction on you TBG. Shotty then starts spamming the fuck out of the thread with irrelevant bullshit. Persivul gets wagoned with all obvious town on it. You start picking a fight based on lies and misrepresentations with me and don't even pretend that's not what you're doing.

[Titus]

Is zakk scum, btw? I'm really asking. bc damn I do not know.

this is a weird post.

if there's an alignment cop i request they check Lowell.

i thought the same. looks like Lazytown to me, which is why i answered it succinctly instead of overanalyzing it

don't know how Lowell-scum plays, but to me this looks more like a player trying to get back into the game mentally than someone trying to throw shade, bc 1. way too obvious in a short iso 2. easy to call out, like you just did, and 3. i assume lowell is smarter than that

and overthinking THAT would be overanalyzing. so he gets a detached townread for now.

zakk's right. I just can't sort him. If I thought specifically he was scum I'd say so. I don't do the "omg u guyz I don't know maybe X is scum guyz? but im just sayin'", as a rule, regardless of alignment.

What made me ask the question is that, despite being an active poster, I have no good read on him. Which is confusing for me.

To me, zakk's been scum ever since he misrepped ETL to push a case on her. If you can't get a handle on someone, what I'd do is look at their posts and ask why. That's the same thing I suggested to Ircher earlier.

[Titus]

Nahdia, why won't you vote the scums w me? There's two good wagons.

[Titus]

I'll hammer if I gotta. copper is scum over Persivul tho and TBG is aight by me.

*pulls hair out* Whyyyyy?

[Titus]

*cries* I cannot talk to this. Like look at that vote count. Look at the names on those wagons...

[Titus]

Who are your scumreads then?

[Titus]

copper and Anen, mostly.

*beats head against wall*

We're approaching deadline. You vote Persivul today, I'll vote with your pool of five names tomorrow if Persivul flips town. If he flips scum, you follow my reads until I am wrong. Fair?

[Titus]

Not today Nahdia.

[Titus]

Not today Nahdia.

can my pool of 5 be Copper, Copper, Copper, Copper, and Anen?

No. It would be Copper, Anen, and 3 other people subject to change by you today and tomorrow. An investigative guilty would be the sole exception and then I would follow through with your reads day 3.

[Titus]

If you were really trying to dispute this you’d have brought up the much better point that the first link isn’t even to a game but to GTKAS for Zakk himself. That’s what someone who actually was criticially assessing zakk’s post would do. Because it is garbage to say “This is Town Pers” and to link to non-game thread.

But you just try to laugh it off as if meta from a year ago somehow isn’t valid. People are bringing up meta for me from 5 to 6 years ago on a regular basis.

This is the kind of crap that is passing for analysis in this game.

Titus came in forming alliances and setting herself up as a leader. I pressured her, earning myself a scum read. The correct question to be asking yourself is: who has more motivation to do that: scum!pers, or town!pers?

Misreps and poor framing are what earned you this scumread. Now you're trying to paint my scumread on you as abnormal when you said it made sense for me to suspect you.

[Titus]

how come i have to follow ur votes exactly but u only gotta pick in a pool of 5.... this seems like a lopsided deal............

Well, I have been reaching out to you to vote my scumreads and get on the same page all day. I can tailor it to say if there's less than 4 days left, I vote with 2. I see your point on lopsided.

[Titus]

Magna is my new favorite town read. I would trust his analysis over anyone else's in this playerlist. He's clearly experienced, keeps a cool head, thinks deliberately about what's going on, and asks good questions that he follows up on.

I endorse this product or service.

[Titus]

why can we not work together as EQUALS titus?

That's my goal here. You are steadfastly not discussing your reads. We have a deadlineto reach a lynch. So getting all the town to vote in the same direction is key.

What else can I do with you plugging your ears and refusing to talk with me?

[Titus]

I agree with everything in that but your favorite tell Zakk. Your favorite tell is totally personality indicative. Everything else though, I totally agree with.

[Titus]

Yeah, look through TBG, Persivul and Anen. (Major wagons close to deadline).

[Titus]

If you're not trying to escape lynching, wy haven't you claimed?

[Titus]

Persivul, there's a trend towards stacking neighbors with additional PRs.

[Titus]

Killthestory, I'm not going there. Come back to me.

[Titus]

Are Jesters considered bastard, or could that be a thing?

Pro-tip. If it's jester, it's usually town.

[Titus]

VI != town.

See that usually part... that's there for a reason. It's not always true.

[Titus]

I just don't want him skating by on bullshit because "oh he's just a VI"

Do you see me ever letting anyone skate long term ever?

[Titus]

VI != town.

Doesn't VI stand for village idiot. And village means town.
Like, I agree a player can be a idiot and not be town. However if you call someone a village idiot you are implicitly saying he is town. Maybe just semantics, but maybe WI is better (Wolf idiot)

VI has become more of a term of art. You're right in a literal sense. Yet, for Village Idiot, the wolves are considered part of the village.

[Titus]

While I'm doing this, can somebody tell me why Seth got dropped for the SK/Goon thing? They made it clear they aren't hard claiming SK...why did they specify hard claiming instead of just claiming? That seems like they typed it up quick and were thinking "I'm soft claiming", does it not? And then they also may have said they're a goon...Why is this not getting pushed right now? Was it pushed and resolved already?

Pushed and resolved. Seth is a newbie troll account.

[Titus]

I lost all motivation to play when you all started being idiots. I have very little motivation to begin with

Why are we idiots?

[Titus]

Nahdia, we get it. You think Anen is scum. Yet, you refuse to talk to us about it though.

[Titus]

Some of the latest posts from Persivul are making me re-examine the read.

ugh...

[Titus]

Yes, that's why I pressured Persivul to claim or renounce them...

[Titus]

Going to bed but

Last few pages of notes include:

Town points for liger zero
Scum points for Nadia
Town points for expedience

And Cakez, for the love of not feeding the trolls can you please force replace kill the story?

Not liking the force replace request here. Trolling is KTS.

[Titus]

Yeah, at first I didn't like how she turned on me for what I thought were reasonable points, but considering that game I can see where town!Titus would remember that game and scum read me here.

Totally missed the point. I've been doing all the things you are NOT doing, exactly the things you SHOULD be doing - actual discussion, real analysis, transparency. NOT jumping on anything that could possibly give you a reason to scumread someone.

I disagree with the accuracy of your self assessment, but even if it's true - those things have you about to lynch town, so if you're town, those apparently AREN'T the things you should be doing...or you're doing them wrong. I've said it before, and I'll say it again - scum!pers has no motivation to take on town!ETL or town!Titus. In Blitz 1 I took on Titus, but that was because a partner was in serious trouble. In this game, I started after you guys well before anyone was even remotely in danger. If me and TBG were scum, I would have just pushed some other townie. I certainly wouldn't have taken his place. This isn't rocket science.

[Titus]

titus b quiet persivul is town tyvm

I lack the playbook.

[Titus]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: killthestory

I will not abide another day of this utter shit

We have one day to lynch and I'm not voting annoying players over scum.

[Titus]

Yeah. you're right. And he'll probably get vigged. But damn that felt good.

I reserve the right to hammer Persivul.

That right belongs to anyone who is on. This isn't a supersaint or cop guilty.

We need the numbers to get to a lynch. You and Nahdia are both already saying you'll hammer and there are NOT two hammers.

[Titus]

Actuallyyy I didn't realize it was just a day, but since it is, yeah.

VOTE: Persivul

KTS pls for the sake of decency stop being a [removed - mith]

I was going to get the time and it's two days.

[Titus]

Well with one day to lynch, wouldn't it be better just to lynch someone over not at all?

Or should we go to no lynch today?

In 99.99999% of circumstances, we lynch Day 1.

Are you townreading Persivul?

[Titus]

No lynching day 1 is almost always detrimental to town, isn't it? I believe I read that or something.

Yes. So you should vote Persivul

[Titus]

VC please

[Titus]

Yeah, when you couldn't play to ETL's and my past baggage, we're suddenly both scum.

[Titus]

Giving Killthestory another warning for trolling and abuse. Any further violations will result in a force replace.

I cll discrimination, where's my warning?

Can we stop with the sensoring of play styles?

[Titus]

VOTE: Zakk

I need more pressure on this

Thank you!
And I agree pers wagon is shit

Pers is at L-2

No he
s not silly, he at
VOTE: pers l-1

What happened here?

[Titus]

Ok, so what's happened while I was gone? What's the case for Pers?

There's a neighborhood outed. 4 players. Usually one scum. Magna, Copper, Liger, and Persivul.

[Titus]

Your thoughts Ircher.

[Titus]

[Titus]

Wait that was a reaction test? I just assumed you were putting him at L-1 and making a joke about it.

I knew I liked you.

[Titus]

Spoiler: NY 195 - D1 Pers ISO JUNE 3

1. 1293 - ETL Case -

1/2/3 -- This looks like a valid inconsistency being pointed out. 4 - Wouldn't perhaps consider it a scumtell, but I still see the point as valid and plausible. 5/6-- Bit of a rehash, but ok. The post is decent, but it seems somewhat nitpickey as it focuses on 1 or 2 contradictiobs without looking at the big picture. -

Null-Town (+1)

2. 1294 - Don't lynch Titus but Cop her -

Not a bad line of play tbh. The post is null in and out of itself though. -

Null (0)

3. 1529 - More flailing and AtE -

The last 10 or so posts look almost entirely useless and super defensive. Really poor impression on what was looking to be a possible town read. -

Scum (-3)

4. 1809 -

One great possibility is bussing, though I'm still leaning towards the town side with Titus. Still, more flailing and AtE. Too bad its so hard to tell if genuine...... -

Scummish (-2)

[/i

Total Score: -4 points
Average Score: -1.0 (-4 / 4)
Final Score: -0.5 (In range of -6 to 6; includes bias score of +0.5)

Meh, I think this is probably the better lynch out of the neighborhood though. Liger looks ok, Magna I townread, and Copper.... Well, I'm not seeing it right now.

Percival, claim

He's claimed plain old neighbor.

[Titus]

VOTE: Persivul

[Titus]

Spoiler: NY 195 - D1 Pers ISO JUNE 3

1. 1293 - ETL Case -

1/2/3 -- This looks like a valid inconsistency being pointed out. 4 - Wouldn't perhaps consider it a scumtell, but I still see the point as valid and plausible. 5/6-- Bit of a rehash, but ok. The post is decent, but it seems somewhat nitpickey as it focuses on 1 or 2 contradictiobs without looking at the big picture. -

Null-Town (+1)

2. 1294 - Don't lynch Titus but Cop her -

Not a bad line of play tbh. The post is null in and out of itself though. -

Null (0)

3. 1529 - More flailing and AtE -

The last 10 or so posts look almost entirely useless and super defensive. Really poor impression on what was looking to be a possible town read. -

Scum (-3)

4. 1809 -

One great possibility is bussing, though I'm still leaning towards the town side with Titus. Still, more flailing and AtE. Too bad its so hard to tell if genuine...... -

Scummish (-2)

[/i

Total Score: -4 points
Average Score: -1.0 (-4 / 4)
Final Score: -0.5 (In range of -6 to 6; includes bias score of +0.5)

Meh, I think this is probably the better lynch out of the neighborhood though. Liger looks ok, Magna I townread, and Copper.... Well, I'm not seeing it right now.

Percival, claim

He's claimed plain old neighbor.

Well, uh did pers claim? is not can we please lynch tius tomorrow, he is either bussing scum or scummy scum, I'm too drunk to do mafia now

Yeah, you can fry.

[Titus]

I don't buy it. You're also clearly detached from the game or faking it.

[Titus]

Her vote was the on the wagon and she has been constantly saying things like "come back to me", and there was already a claim. That's a very opportunistic vote there ETL.

I know he's a neighbor but that was outed by liger and isn't a personal full claim, which is customarily sought at L-1, which is why we note that it's L-1.

I already obtained it. Just how closely are you reading?

[Titus]

Well now that the VC has outed that, what was your aim with the fake hammer?

Duh! She was reaction-testing.

Yes, but who's reaction?

Everyone's.

What I've learned is to be very depressed about the gamestate that no one apparently is engaging in critical thinking.

[Titus]

*sees deadline*

Sure, barring quickhammers yeah. I can't be here all of the 12 hours.

[Titus]

Hey, Expedience, we don't need vote shenanigans. If people quickhammer, they are great vig targets or lynch targets for tomorrow.

[Titus]

Even I have minor reservations on the Persivul wagon, but there's no way I am going for KTS. This is the wierdest collective response to a fake hammer in my recollection.

VC please

ETL, the reads you wanted to give please?

[Titus]

L minus fucking 4...

If there's no guilty and Persivul flips red, we are looking at this pool of unvoters.

[Titus]

Oh hey. We got a kill lol. Let's see how he flips.

Defend this scummy ass shit.

No o:

Also, can we cop this slot please?

Copping a newbie at this point of the game is terrible. Investigations should be on more experienced players.

You're both right and wrong. Investigations should be on the people who would reveal the most if their alignment is known. Sometimes that's a newbie. Sometimes that's an expert.

In the event either of you flip scum, this is telling.

[Titus]

What are your thoughts on the 3-4 people thinking that a) my hammer was real b) Persivul had not full claimed and c) claimed to fully read the game?

[Titus]

Investigations should be on the people who would reveal the most if their alignment is known.

No, investigations should be on people who could do most damage as scum and who are best able to appear townie as scum. That's experienced people. Newbies can be sorted later.

Vets are most likely to die. It runs the risk of "I checked the dead guy". If a vet is checked, it needs to tell about the game.

Even the most stalwart of vets has lost as scum and has weaknesses.

[Titus]

Yeah, well I don't think all of those are legit.

[Titus]

Spoiler: NY 195 - D1 Pers ISO JUNE 3

1. 1293 - ETL Case -

1/2/3 -- This looks like a valid inconsistency being pointed out. 4 - Wouldn't perhaps consider it a scumtell, but I still see the point as valid and plausible. 5/6-- Bit of a rehash, but ok. The post is decent, but it seems somewhat nitpickey as it focuses on 1 or 2 contradictiobs without looking at the big picture. -

Null-Town (+1)

2. 1294 - Don't lynch Titus but Cop her -

Not a bad line of play tbh. The post is null in and out of itself though. -

Null (0)

3. 1529 - More flailing and AtE -

The last 10 or so posts look almost entirely useless and super defensive. Really poor impression on what was looking to be a possible town read. -

Scum (-3)

4. 1809 -

One great possibility is bussing, though I'm still leaning towards the town side with Titus. Still, more flailing and AtE. Too bad its so hard to tell if genuine...... -

Scummish (-2)

[/i

Total Score: -4 points
Average Score: -1.0 (-4 / 4)
Final Score: -0.5 (In range of -6 to 6; includes bias score of +0.5)

Meh, I think this is probably the better lynch out of the neighborhood though. Liger looks ok, Magna I townread, and Copper.... Well, I'm not seeing it right now.

Percival, claim

Spoiler: NY 195 - D1 Pers ISO JUNE 3

1. 1293 - ETL Case -

1/2/3 -- This looks like a valid inconsistency being pointed out. 4 - Wouldn't perhaps consider it a scumtell, but I still see the point as valid and plausible. 5/6-- Bit of a rehash, but ok. The post is decent, but it seems somewhat nitpickey as it focuses on 1 or 2 contradictiobs without looking at the big picture. -

Null-Town (+1)

2. 1294 - Don't lynch Titus but Cop her -

Not a bad line of play tbh. The post is null in and out of itself though. -

Null (0)

3. 1529 - More flailing and AtE -

The last 10 or so posts look almost entirely useless and super defensive. Really poor impression on what was looking to be a possible town read. -

Scum (-3)

4. 1809 -

One great possibility is bussing, though I'm still leaning towards the town side with Titus. Still, more flailing and AtE. Too bad its so hard to tell if genuine...... -

Scummish (-2)

[/i

Total Score: -4 points
Average Score: -1.0 (-4 / 4)
Final Score: -0.5 (In range of -6 to 6; includes bias score of +0.5)

Meh, I think this is probably the better lynch out of the neighborhood though. Liger looks ok, Magna I townread, and Copper.... Well, I'm not seeing it right now.

Percival, claim

He's claimed plain old neighbor.

VOTE: Persivul

Well, uh did pers claim? is not can we please lynch tius tomorrow, he is either bussing scum or scummy scum, I'm too drunk to do mafia now

New Page, I post claim at top

she legit thought it was a hammer.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Titus

Unvote after realizing, New Page

Persivul needs to full claim.

Persivul needs to full claim.

Why do you assume there's more to be claimed?

I do not, I want him to confirm it one way or the other.

Fair, seemed worded as an assumption. My apologies.

VOTE: Persivul

I don't know how I feel about this, but I believe this makes the player at L-1 again.
I think someone should declare intent and he should claim.

Everyone is a neighbor, Persivul, unless you live on a park bench or something. What's your role, though?

VIG NAHDIA REGARDLESS OF FLIP

[Titus]

Last quote was for notes.

I wonder why Expedience did not claim his neighborhood.

[Titus]

Yes, vets can be more dangerous when scum, but if someone is scummy, I'd rather them checked, than potentially lynch them due to them acting scummy and turn out town.

So you investigate a scummy newbie. The scummy newbie comes back as town. The newbie gets wagoned. As cop, you out yourself just to save one scummy newbie early in a large.

That's really bad.

Why do you suppose the scummy newbie gets wagoned? That's not a proper assumption. Why couldn't a scummy vet be wagoned?

That's an argument against checking scummy people.

[Titus]

The people who should be investigated are those who reveal the most about the game. That's because scum are unlikely to kill them and we get info.

If scum kill them, then we get info. Anen, TBG,Seth are all good investigations.

[Titus]

Seth = Guy who replaced his slot.

[Titus]

EtL, myself, and copper are also good investigations too.

[Titus]

VC Mod Please

I'm VLA this weekend. Urgent work thing. ETL, please drive a lynch though. I will check this from time to time.

[Titus]

ETL, I know this is my real life stuff, but please hammer.

[Titus]

Matt, Person is at L minus 2.

Copper was on the wagon and got off.

[Titus]

Yes, so if you'll be unavailable, you should put Persivul at L minus one.

[Titus]

Ty.

[Titus]

hey so titus here's my list of 5 ppl for u to choose from

copper
coopper
aneninen
aneninen
titus

Given those flips, I am ok with Copper or Anen being pressured a bit. You still need 3 more. :-p

@shotty, you mean mainly that I was right on kill and ETL.

[Titus]

whichever of those was a vig shot was truly awful. none of those people should have been vigged.

Really? KTS was town to me but scum to a lot of people. TBG was struggling to do anything.

ETL is the only one that's truly bad.

[Titus]

whichever of those was a vig shot was truly awful. none of those people should have been vigged.

Really? KTS was town to me but scum to a lot of people. TBG was struggling to do anything.

ETL is the only one that's truly bad.

well i had them all as town =(

hey so titus here's my list of 5 ppl for u to choose from

copper
coopper
aneninen
aneninen
titus

U scum here Nahdia huh?

nope lol but u are

You gotta remember how vig is played though to most. Shoot scumreads shared by a lot or ppl that cannot live until Lylo.

P.s. What would your reaction be if I shot TBG?

[Titus]

hey so titus here's my list of 5 ppl for u to choose from

copper
expedience
projectmatt
aneninen
titus

there, filled in.

Not Nahdia and still needs 1 more

[Titus]

hey so titus here's my list of 5 ppl for u to choose from

copper
coopper
aneninen
aneninen
titus

Given those flips, I am ok with Copper or Anen being pressured a bit. You still need 3 more. :-p

@shotty, you mean mainly that I was right on kill and ETL.

We agreed on kill and etl so what's your point here?

So great, you're not voting me based on flips then are you?

[Titus]

ETL makes sense as a kill, TBG was awfull if it was town aligned.

Your Nahdia read please.

[Titus]

@Nahdia, what do you think of ETL's end of day reads?

[Titus]

Hey, what do you think of wagonning Shotty or Zakk,Copper?

[Titus]

hey so titus here's my list of 5 ppl for u to choose from

copper
coopper
aneninen
aneninen
titus

Given those flips, I am ok with Copper or Anen being pressured a bit. You still need 3 more. :-p

@shotty, you mean mainly that I was right on kill and ETL.

We agreed on kill and etl so what's your point here?

So great, you're not voting me based on flips then are you?

I thought you were scum yesterday, and couldn't get the wagon going because of concern over pers, etl, and tbg. Now all three have flipped town so I'm back to this.

Scum:
Titus
Copper
Zakk

You couldn't get a wagon on me because the dead town thought i was town...so now I am going to vote you.

P.s. I dare you to bus Zakk.

[Titus]

well there are three kills, which either means

2 scum teams 1 vig
2 scum teams 1 sk
1 scum team 1 sk 1 vig

i think it's unlikely anyone who was scum or SK would want to take out KTS, especially an SK. they would want him alive to draw aggro

so eliminating the 2 scum teams 1 sk option, we have:

2 scum teams 1 vig
1 scum team 1 sk 1 vig

however, since i think that TBG was seen as someone who was a wagon that existed pretty much all day, but wasn't able to be pushed through, it's possible that either an SK, "rival" scum, or a vig would want to off him, thinking he was scum, and KTS seems like a vig shot for daaammmnnnn sure

so NK analysis leaves us with:

vigilante KTS
scum/sk TBG
scum/sk ETL

i'm happy with this.

so now we need to look for multi-scum dynamics.

Your team didn't shoot kTS got it.

[Titus]

@Nahdia, what do you think of ETL's end of day reads?

i haven't looked at them.

Please do.

[Titus]

i looked at them and he's probably mostly right

What were her reads to you and which ones were probably right?

[Titus]

hey so titus here's my list of 5 ppl for u to choose from

copper
coopper
aneninen
aneninen
titus

Given those flips, I am ok with Copper or Anen being pressured a bit. You still need 3 more. :-p

@shotty, you mean mainly that I was right on kill and ETL.

We agreed on kill and etl so what's your point here?

So great, you're not voting me based on flips then are you?

I thought you were scum yesterday, and couldn't get the wagon going because of concern over pers, etl, and tbg. Now all three have flipped town so I'm back to this.

Scum:
Titus
Copper
Zakk

You couldn't get a wagon on me because the dead town thought i was town...so now I am going to vote you.

P.s. I dare you to bus Zakk.

You're already bussing zakk though.

So why not vote there and help me bus if that's what you really think?

[Titus]

i looked at them and he's probably mostly right

What were her reads to you and which ones were probably right?

..all of them?

So, specifically state what you think her reads were please. Remember, I am sheeping what you claim to be good.

[Titus]

hey so titus here's my list of 5 ppl for u to choose from

copper
coopper
aneninen
aneninen
titus

Given those flips, I am ok with Copper or Anen being pressured a bit. You still need 3 more. :-p

@shotty, you mean mainly that I was right on kill and ETL.

We agreed on kill and etl so what's your point here?

So great, you're not voting me based on flips then are you?

I thought you were scum yesterday, and couldn't get the wagon going because of concern over pers, etl, and tbg. Now all three have flipped town so I'm back to this.

Scum:
Titus
Copper
Zakk

You couldn't get a wagon on me because the dead town thought i was town...so now I am going to vote you.

P.s. I dare you to bus Zakk.

You're already bussing zakk though.

So why not vote there and help me bus if that's what you really think?

Fine
VOTE: zakk
but his scum flip will not gain you any points.

Goodie.

[Titus]

Nahdia, let's do Shotty. I like a Shotty v Zakk day.

[Titus]

nah let's do copper

VOTE: copper

I wanna talk to copper more.

[Titus]

i wanna hear him scream as we drag him to the gallows

Then let me ply him with flowers (I am also not sure if you're right there). Why you no go to Zakk if you think ETL's reads are right?

[Titus]

I said I would vote any of 5.

I am not voting BC I hate those options you've given me. You need 3 more.

[Titus]

im not very good at being intimidating =(

No, because someone hates ice cream.

[Titus]

no. these are ur choices. u do not get more. u get these.

Then, you aren't clearly wanting me to stick to what I agreed to. You aren't giving me 5 names.

[Titus]

You could even fill in names like Magna, who I would not vote for today. But there have to be 5.

At deadline, we shrink. That's how this works.

[Titus]

ok fine, 5 names.

Copper
Aneninem
especiallythelies
tehbrawlguy
titus

Dead town and myself don't count smart Alec.

[Titus]

ok fine, 5 names.

Copper
Aneninem
especiallythelies
tehbrawlguy
titus

Dead town and myself don't count smart Alec.

um excuse me that wasn't part of the deal which i didn't even agree to...

look titus my good friend and pal and compatriot and comrade, here is the dealio.

im gonna vote for copper. u can also vote for copper. or u can not vote for copper. if u vote for not copper and vote for aneninem, i'll also vote for that.

Yeah, well the deal was 5 names, close to 2 at deadline. So, throw in some nulls.

P.s. Shotty is likely scum w Zakk still.

[Titus]

im not makin' u a list bc im only gonna vote anen or copper.

The list isn't for your vote, it's only for my vote.

[Titus]

im not makin' u a list bc im only gonna vote anen or copper.

The list isn't for your vote, it's only for my vote.

i have no interest in controlling u if i can't control u to vote anen or copper. do what u want.

I actually want to keep my word and not vote town.

[Titus]

That seemed more like a reaction test to me. Interesting.

Why did it seem like a reaction test to you?

[Titus]

I just can't see Titus ever asking people for their opinions of her actions if she actually did them. I don't think she needs the validation and I think she would have better, non-self-outing methods of finding out.

Who said anything on validation? Suggesting information can generate reads.

What do you think I am getting from my reaction test?

[Titus]

@Anen, Pressure =/= lynch you. I personally refused to vote you for a reason, I think you're town.

I am coming towards Short/Zakk/Plus Hood/Plus Shaizro (depends on answers).

[Titus]

There would be one other name but I wanna play that close.

[Titus]

That seemed more like a reaction test to me. Interesting.

Why did it seem like a reaction test to you?

It looked like one to me too.

It's the way you worded it, asking for how people would react if you dix xxxx.

If it is, don't out reaction tests. That generally ruins them.

[Titus]

@Shaziro, I am pretty sure the fake hammer ran its course.

It was the one thing that made me doubt a Persivul lynch. No one seemed to be paying attention to the game.

Also, do you think I am the vig Shaziro?

[Titus]

i just noticed that both shotty and titus are trying to paint me as scum with the other one

like really guys let me help you distance from each other harder

Hahaha. Hi. The thread called. It wants you to stop revising history.

[Titus]

No.

Why not?

[Titus]

Ok, you can be town. I figured your second ~reasons~ when you acted that way. Just had to figure out town ~reasons~ or scum ~reasons~ scum would have panicked.

I don't mind evening up the ~reasons~.

[Titus]

Obviously not vig.

[Titus]

VOTE: Zakk

[Titus]

I'll explain post game.

P.S. The hood is odd.

Join me on Zakk?

[Titus]

My problem with the Zakk vote is that I don't like that Shotty is on it, as I'm not really liking Shotty for town this game.

They're bussing each other. Scum do that. 100% town wagons on scum rarely happen. Find scum, lynch them. Worry if multiple scumreads get on or a vote is really bad and cannot be a bus.

[Titus]

VOTE: shotty

If and when shotty flips scum, we can lynch his partner, zakk.

You are aware there's a wagon on Zakk?

[Titus]

Also I love that when zakk's wagon got some legs, you switched off. Seems like you got nervous about bussing him.

I'VE BEEN TRYING TO LYNC HIM FOR 100 DAMN PAGES

If that was your goal, why jump of when it gets going?

[Titus]

@Anen, Because I a) want to see who jumps and b) I am not going to hard defend you to the point of denying information when you're fully capable of actually doing well.

Nahdia is deliberately being impossible at the moment.

[Titus]

There's 4-6 not town. Talk about reads. Tell me why those two. Anen feels just like Open 627 where I scumpainted him good. Right now between the two of you,I would take him because I an talk to him.

[Titus]

I'll do the opposite where Titus is brazen scum later, I need some hours to break out of the mindset I am in now cause at the moment this world seems so likely I'd just confbias the shit out of every read.

Why not suppose that I am right on shorty+Zakk but Persivul and TBG were townbeards?

Why are your sole universes that I sm currently wrong or scum?

[Titus]

Shotty/Zakk/Hood/Nahdia/Egg --- Thoughts here?

[Titus]

Shotty's reads on me and Titus do not feel at all genuine.

Shotty literallly tries to find anything to throw dirt or shade at us, yet you find that genuine?

I find the strength of the tunnel genuine. Once you flip, if you are town, how is shotty planning to stay alive to win? Do you think you are worth a trade?

I have faked tunnels for years. See Newbie 1388.

[Titus]

What the votes say, assuming Titus is having a bad game and being used as a battering ram to take the heat, by scum:

Anen: town getting pushed by scum.

Cythefly: bad town being spoon-fed by scum and lapping it up, or scum being very brazen under the cover of being a newbie.

Egg: see previous post, likely scum. @Titus why no early scumread on Egg?

Expe: Town not having a fun time.

Ircher: omgus or vote on the biggest wagons is the pattern that emerges here, this is such a terrible pattern you should be ashamed if you are town, and in this world you are.

Liger: town newbie.

Magna: follows Titus on Copper (whitout a vote) under the cover of clearing his PT, but then doesn't have anything to ask in said PT, follows Titus (and PM) on TBG, which is consistent with the initial hypothesis, the votes are both bad and very opportunistic.

Nahdia: Scum with Nos PM and Magna, taking advantage of Titus whom she pockets early with a town-lean. Particularly worrisome are her discarding her early Magna read for no reason (finished distancing) when Titus asked her for further names, her coordination with Nosferatu (push on me, push on Anen, Nos was likely positioning herself to go on Ircher with Nahdia as well with that stats post) and her read switch on Anen (PM also switches and the reason he gives is pretty weak, he liked a lot of Anen's early posting but now he looks weaker).

Nos: see pre-post read.

PMatt: Other than what mentioned with other players, very early town read on both Titus and Ircher (consistent with the scum strategy hypothesized here).

Shaz: new-town doing his own thing.

Shotty: In this world he is more likely duped town than scum, the emphasis on wanting to lynch Ircher/Titus with a vengeance while compromising if the game state requires it makes his reads likely genuine (and crap).

Titus: town by definition in this world.

Zakk: Like shotty his reads in this world are garbage but genuine in the way he is pushing, he also has solo votes on slots that nobody is even looking at and where is the support from his supposed teammates in that or why is he picking fights with lowell and ETL when he already is against Titus & co, more so than Shotty this here is misguided town.

Shotty's reads on me and Titus do not feel at all genuine.

Shotty literallly tries to find anything to throw dirt or shade at us, yet you find that genuine?

At US???? Who is your partner?
VOTE: Ircher

Yeah, see

this is fake

. Us obviously in context says that Snotty is desperately throwing whatever he can at Ircher and me.

Shorty tries to pidegonhole the word us to have some excuse why he's not voting the major wagon...Zakk.

[Titus]

VOTE: copper

i really really want this dead like really super bad guys

And I want you to comment on the major wagons. Looks like neither of us are getting what we want. Your refusal to even comment on Zakk and Shotty is terrible.

[Titus]

My point is why is he taking the time to defend you as well? He is trying to protect you.

We're townreads of each other. That's natural. Now, why are you trying to divert from Zakk instead of voting him if you think he's scum?

[Titus]

@Copper, Ballsy is a personality tell. Good players turn ballsy on and off when needed.

Reassess please with that knowledge.

What do you think of shotty and Zakk tunneling each other while avoiding voting as major wagons?

P.S. The only way I am buying Nahdia group scum currently is if Shaziro is also groupscum and there's about only a 2% chance Shaziro acts like e has as scum.

[Titus]

My point is why is he taking the time to defend you as well? He is trying to protect you.

We're townreads of each other. That's natural. Now, why are you trying to divert from Zakk instead of voting him if you think he's scum?

Look we are going in circles here. I think multiple people are scum, if every time I vote one of you, you say well if you think they are scum vote them, and I switch votes we will get no where.

This isn't circles. You bailed on the one most likely to get lynched. You feel Zakk/Ircher/me, you should vote the largest wagon of the three. That's Zakk.

[Titus]

@Copper, Ballsy is a personality tell. Good players turn ballsy on and off when needed.

Reassess please with that knowledge.

What do you think of shotty and Zakk tunneling each other while avoiding voting as major wagons?

P.S. The only way I am buying Nahdia group scum currently is if Shaziro is also groupscum and there's about only a 2% chance Shaziro acts like e has as scum.

I made multiple points about Zakk, you focused on one you didn't like which still makes sense to me, I have a few other that are more gut based on what and when he posted, so no.

Why is Shaz needed for Nahdia to be scum?

~reasons~ on the last

I am going to focus on where we disagree and what I feel is an incorrect basis for your reads.

[Titus]

*bats eyelashes* Zakk is flailing guys. Desperately scumreading random people in thread.

[Titus]

btw if this is multiball 90% sure there's a representative of every scum team in the hood, so we should be looking for scum in the hood, not the scum in the hood.

If this is multiball and Nos is scum, the hood is likely all town.

[Titus]

Nos, the size of your scumteam.

[Titus]

This has got to be fake. If your scumteam has fewer than 4 players, you can presume multiball.

[Titus]

Then my hypothetical would never come to pass.