New York 180 (Endgame)
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Ozgin Goon
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In post 1537, Shinobi wrote:So I'm reading the thread and asking myself "why is the NJ wagon happening?"
Because I still don't have a clue why it exists and nobody seems willing or able to tell me why.
While anyone is at it, can someone give me the run-down on both the wagons currently? It'll help me catch up quicker.
Also, read ika's ISO for Votecounts, and I noticed something funny: SilverWolf has been the 3rd vote on every major wagon after the first VC, which is interesting to me. 3rd and 4th votes always seem to be where wagons tend to start, and I read on a mafia tell wiki that it's actually a pretty scummy thing to do (I think it was JEEP's tells, but from what I understand they're outdated-ish?). I dunno, just a strange happenstance I noticed. Doing more reading now.
Anybody's particular ISOs I should look at first? I'm already going to do klings, NJs, and MathBlade (because of that Ellie post just now).-
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Ozgin Goon
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In post 1510, MathBlade wrote:In post 1472, Shinobi wrote:I can mostly see where you're coming from but your bit on not voting for survival is a nulltell at best.
Can someone explain why NJ is being voted? I think I asked already I don't think anyone answered.
I can't speak for everyone else but the votals made me want to reaction test and I did not like NJ's reaction nor their follow up. More details are in my ISO.
So I've read MathBlade's ISO first and I don't like the points against NJ:
1) Yes, some people take trolls seriously. Some people feed the trolls. I don't think this is scummy. It makes NJ look like a stick in the mud who lacks humor, but certainly not scum.
2) So... he's scum because.. he didn't get confused? Levelheaded = scum? Well shit, there are a lot of scum in every game ever played then.
3) I'm not informed enough about the events of this thread to know how NJ is or is not accusing Kitz of something they themselves were doing (hypocrisy), so this is a null point to me.
4) I don't even understand what this means. Null Point.
5) I don't get this, either. You think they're not doing enough? Like being lazy? Or do you think they're not scumhuntingcorrectly? Laziness is pretty scummy, but I don't think the latter of my interpretations (scumhunting incorrectly) is necessarily a scum tell. They could have just been mistaken.
If these points are the shortened version of the arguments for NJ being scum, then coming in from the outside and seeing this, I don't think it's a strong case.
elusive wrote:Wake & Oz:
Vikingfan claimed cop at L2 or L3 I believe so there was pressure
ABR, under no pressure, claimed town tracker
Klingoncelt under light pressure (less than half a wagon) claimed Vanilla and then later claimed that town would lose if they lynched her
NakedJoggers like a few others (pisskop and Boonskiies) focused excessively on the newer players such as myself or Kitz or etc to be scum but don't really pursue\hunt\question or ignore attempts to answer questions. NakedJoggers also seemed to want to elicit reactions from me or Kitz but probably not the kind he expected. Then see MathBlade ISO.
Also resistance to NJ's lynch makes me wonder.
Boonskiies you're NOU is boring, do you have any other scumspects or want to actually lead a wagon on with you know reasoning? Also totally shipping Dragonboon or Boonspawn. Also, you a TVD fan?
Just saw this before I posted. I like this argument against NJ better than the 5 points MathBlade presented, because it's an elaborated version of the only part of her 3rd point I sort of agree'd with. I don't understand the elicit reactions part, though. Can you explain that a little more? I'm also gonna look at the Kling ISO/wagon next, then NJ, and then I'll look into the one Boon said to.
I also like that you included the sort of pressure the players were under.
Thanks for the help guys!-
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Ozgin Goon
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In post 1450, Klingoncelt wrote:In post 1337, Aeronaut wrote:Hey, Klingcelt, does your butt hurt?
You know, from that fence you keep sitting on
Ask the other USMBers that one. Hopefully they'll set you straight. Or I could.
I don't like voting unless I'm pretty sure.
There is one thing that I'm 100% sure of - if I get lynched today, Town will lose the game. Guaranteed.
I don't like this arrogance. Like yeah, every townie is vital to our success, because our goal is basically to survive, but one mislynch won't put us in the coffin.
I also don't like that Klingon refers to everyone as "town", as if they were separated entities from herself:
"Town will lose the game."
In 1444 and in 1446 she also referred to the "town" as a separate entity like, "HEY TOWN" and "Town, ignore him." But I'm pretty sure that's just my petty obsession with semantics.
As far as the wagons go, I don't care for either the NJ or the Kling wagon. Even though I don't particularly like the way Klingon interacts with the town, I don't think that makes her scum. I think her post 1450 was just an idle threat because she's desperate. Even though elusive (I think it was elusive, my short term is scrambling to absorb all of this information) raised the only point against NJ I could kinda see, it still just feels wrong to me. It feels like a stretch.
If it comes down to a forced decision, I'll be more inclined to vote Kling out of the bias I formed in the last 10 minutes of reading her posts, but that's because I think both wagons are dumb and they should only be voted on if need be because of the time constraint.
Wake88 wrote:@Everyone:
If you had to choose between pisskop, Ellie, and vikingfan, which would you go for and why?
BONUS:List these three in order from most suspicious to least.
Let me do a little research, I'll get back to you on that in a little bit, but with so little time left I don't think this is going to be fruitful until Day 2.-
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Ozgin Goon
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elusive wrote:NakedJogger, he was reading at a point and also he knows certain players meta. I don't know why all your scum reads are so easy. Easy here is players who's natural style is not all deductive logic or psychological reaction testing.
I know this wasn't directed at me, but I am curious. Just because someone knows some players' metas, and read some parts but not all of a game, does that make them of ample mind to vote accurately?
I would venture to say that if people don't understand the context of recent events, it's hard for them to get involved in recent events. I sympathize with Grib because I'm behind too as a replacement but I know that if I don't get a grasp on these wagons and the current mindset of everyone at the moment then I'm going to fall behind and be marginalized into lurking. Simply because posting would make me look and feel really stupid if I don't know what's going on! That's my current struggle, and I can understand Grib's.
However, Grib, I don't agree with just not reading. It'll be faster to read and catch up on the main events of the recent history of the game than it would be to throw yourself into the mix and struggle until things make sense. It would take longer for you to just throw yourself in and adapt fully to the situation than it would to just ISO the vote counts and read 8-10 posts before and after each one, at least.
And even if youcanjust jump into the water and start swimming, you'll be disoriented no matter what happens. You'll inevitably swim in the wrong direction. By this, I mean even if you jump into the game and hope to find your bearing, you'll still be missing information which may ultimately result in you pushing wagons for no good reason or making yourself look like a scum.
Moral of the story, kids, is to read a damn book.
This message has been sponsored by your local library.
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Ozgin Goon
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In post 1663, MathBlade wrote:FA_Q2 -- Let me be clearer. Anyone voting Ellie better vote me first because I will defend her to my dying breath. Got it. And hence another reason VF's claim is full of shit. I should know. I have faked guilties twice believably so now I'm fucked if I ever draw cop
@Ozgin -- Ask ika post game. I'm better as a replacement than I am at the start of games. I'm a lethal end game replace.
I think it's all relative to how far into a day you are, because if I replaced in at the start of day 2 and not the end of day 1, I'd have an easier time because I haven't formed any biased opinions about people and a lot of the white noise happening would be cleared away. Everyone loves to "get right down to business" after a lynch.
But I agree with the sentiment that we need to close a wagon and close one fast. Who is actually closer, Kling or NJ?
I believe if I vote Kling it puts her in hammer range, last I checked?-
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Ozgin Goon
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In post 1679, elusive wrote:Cowardly scum and their ridiculously unfashionable scum underlings, boo boo boo.
Well considering I'm going away for a bit, and for what may be the probable remainder of the first day, I'm obliged to give my vote to whomever is closer to lynch, considering there's just over 6 hours left in the day. I'll be back probably in half an hour or so, if things slip towards NJ in that time then I'll change my vote. But considering I don't necessarily like either of them for this lynch, and since everyone seems insistent on pushing a lynch on one or the other, it only makes sense to me to vote for kling since this puts her at L-1.-
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In post 1685, elusive wrote:That wasn't meant for you in particular.
If people really think that both wagons are town or are are uneasy on them then GET THE FUCK OFF.
Meh, 15 minutes have passed. I was expecting to be gone longer... I must have inhaled that food.
Anyways, elusive (or Estival if that's what you prefer now..?), even if I want to not vote either of them, I even more so want to lynch someone today for the sake of progression.
If you can bring 2 more votes to NJ then I'll be on board. I'll try my hardest to check back here before midnight (the day ends at 1AM in my time), but if I don't see a change of tide or if I simply am unable to make it back on time, I'm sorry. I really am. But a no-lynch is much worse than a potential mislynch.-
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In post 1706, elusive wrote:I don't believe in lynching for the sake of lynching especially day one. 9.9 times out of 10, day one lynches in my small experience have been of town. However, barring that the night kill should provide data as well so its not as if the lynch going through in itself would provide some spectacular game breaking insight.
You vote people to pressure them, to reaction, or test the waters but you don't vote people because everyone else's doing it. The lynch vote should be your strongly held belief that this person should die for their crimes against the town.
I think we get data from both the day lynch and the night kill. We can't just sit around and wait for Nightkills for clues as to who the scum are. I've had a lot less experience than you, but even in MY very little experience, I don't think a no-lynch day is productive or positive.
While I'm not confident that kling or NJ are scum, I'm also not confident that they're town. I'm more confident in kling being town than I am NJ, but if I had to put it to numbers it'd be like:
Person (Town Likelihood in % | Scum Likelihood in %):
klingoncelt (40|60)
NJ(30|70)
I mean it's really close, both of them are lean scum to me, and I don't wanna let a day go lynchless when there's a possibility that either of them could be scum.
If you can get one or two more votes toward NJ, I'll happily change my vote, but I can't bring myself to risk leaving the thread for a few hours and coming back to an unproductive, lynchless D1.-
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Ozgin Goon
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In case anyone was wondering what this was, I took the leap of faith and clicked it -- It's a robot recording that basically says "Fuck all of you" in some fashion.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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Ozgin Goon
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In post 1857, Klingoncelt wrote:In post 1616, Ozgin wrote:In post 1450, Klingoncelt wrote:
There is one thing that I'm 100% sure of - if I get lynched today, Town will lose the game. Guaranteed.
I don't like this arrogance. Like yeah, every townie is vital to our success, because our goal is basically to survive, but one mislynch won't put us in the coffin.
I also don't like that Klingon refers to everyone as "town", as if they were separated entities from herself:
"Town will lose the game."
In 1444 and in 1446 she also referred to the "town" as a separate entity like, "HEY TOWN" and "Town, ignore him." But I'm pretty sure that's just my petty obsession with semantics.
You're right, it is. What am I supposed to say? "Everyone in Town that isn't me?" "The rest of you guys?" "Those that aren't Scum?"
Like I said, I have a petty obsession with semantics. I would just expect someone on the town side to use words like "we" or address the general population. Like "We're gonna lose" or "Hey guys/folks/people!" or "I think we should ignore him." I would typically only think a scum would address the town in 3rd person.
Make note that I address town in 3rd person here for clarity, which is different than doing it arbitrarily.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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Ozgin Goon
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Sorry guys, real life been bringing down the hammer on me. I just read up on the day. Here we go...
In post 1933, Albert B. Rampage wrote:Read this again: no matter what ika says,players are never told if they are protected in normal games on this site. vikingfan lied. Why would he lie about being protected? He is insecure about how his survival looks and tried to compensate for it by fabricating an explanation for it. He made a mistake in site meta.
He needs to be quicklynched ASAP.
So this is probably the most argued thing that has come up in the last few pages, the idea of whether or not people are informed when they're healed. ika gave a very neutral response, literally the most null wording possible. Is there any official source material that specifically says it is 100% impossible? Or maybe that it's just unlikely? I mean, if it's ambiguous in the rules, then it's about as null of an argument as you can get -- you simply cannot know if vf's telling the truth or not.
That being said, regardless of whether or not vf got a response, I just don't know that I believe the story. The whole "I got shot, revived, my read roleblocked, and two people actually died last night."
If we assume pisskop used his roleblock on vf, that still means there are three sources of attack at night phase. I'm a noob here, so forgive me if I'm wrong, but are there not only like, 5 ways someone can be killed at night in a normal game? How likely is that?
It's just so muchunlikelinesshappening in this story, but I'm not prepared to bring the thunder down on vf because I really think it's possible for him to just have garbage luck.
In post 1964, Ellie wrote:I think vikingfan is a town cop and telling the truth, but I am okay with his death and will probably hammer him if he reaches L-1.
I really liked Ellie for town until this post. I mean, what pro-town player in their right mind says, "I think player x is town, but I'm okay with killing player x." Especially if you think the "player x" is not only town, but also a fucking cop. This is just bad. Even if Ellie isn't scum, this certainly is not a pro-town read.
In post 1991, T S O wrote:ABR I feel ika's covering for vf is kinda pro-vf's claim - I also have meta to do, so I'd appreciate you not running him into the noose.
Can you tell me in what way ika has defended vf? I read ika's response as very neutral, and particularly designed to not give a confirmation nor a denial. I mean, I think it's more or less just the fact that a bunch of people were confused and asking for help.
In post 2063, vikingfan wrote:In post 2058, Ellie wrote:In post 1875, Albert B. Rampage wrote:Sorry, I realized during the night that I had mixed up my role pms with another game. I'm unfortunately a VT. My bad...
Ugh. I don't know how to read ABR. But I keep imagining myself looking back to this post after the game and askingwhyexactly we didn't lynch him for it
Bingo.
People, think of it this way. WHY is ABR posting so much content today than he has the entire rest of the game? He is admittedy either A, an idiot, or B, a scum liar. He admittedly fakeclaimed day 1 and now wants us to let him off the hook for getting his role PMs mixed up instead of specifically LOOKING AT HIS PM. A careful town would make sure he quotes the right PM. A scum would not. And he's used words like 'us' (who is us, pray tell?) and is trying to get us to quicklynch me (something which is NOT beneficial for town).
Consider what the end result is for him. Lynch me, lynch him, he's accomplished a mafia for a cop trade. More to the point, he has used so much town attention on me that it is difficult for town to figure out what else is going on. Quicklynching only furthers that goal.
VOTE: ABR
BTW, ABR, there are probably several other scum in this game. Mind giving your opinion on other players besides me? I haven't heard any today.
So this feels very OMGUS, and desperate. It's almost like what a frustrated townie would say, but I really don't like the arguments he made.
Like me - I'm posting today after taking a while to respond, I missed the mass day-start PMandRL shit on me. I have a few reasons to be slightly delayed in my responses. Now I went on to read the day and make a nice wall for people to look at.Does that make me scum in your eyes? My sudden increase in post rate?
What makes him an idiot? (Ad Hominem attacks don't help you, trust me I know). A scum he probably would be if you got lynched and flipped town, but how has he lied? He just seems like he's a town who genuinely believes you scumslipped.
The only thing I agree with is this weird "I read the wrong PM" thing, but it's (in my opinion) much more believable to me that a player (regardless of experience) who just got a little flustered and clicked the wrong role PM, because ABR plays (from what it seems) a lot of games.
In post 2179, dragonspawn wrote:Do we really believe we have three separate attackers going on?
This wasn't directed at me, but this pretty sums up my skepticism about the whole issue. The question is, how probable is it that 3 attackers is the case? I mean, obviously we have the scum. Next, we either have a vigilante and a serial killer, or some other power role and a serial killer, or two power roles (probably including vigilante).
In post 2245, Ellie wrote:Me, elusive, goodmorning, you, SilverWolf. Ozgin and Shinobi are probably town, but not as strong. Why dragonspawn?
I'm probably reading into semantics (again), but why do you say "Me,...are probably town,..."? Why do you equate yourself to probable town? I'm not gonna push too much here, though, because last time I was sticky about semantics I was dead wrong, but just something that never fails to grab my attention.
Unrelated to my responses above:
Did we all forget how NakedJogger did that really scummy hammer "Lights out bitches" thing? It's just been bugging me since night happened, and it's gonna be hard for me to get over. The only reason I'm not scolding NJ for it is because a) before his hammer on kling I didn't really think he was scum and b) Since the hammer, NJ has been active and contributing.
-P.S.-
That took me so long to type, I'm surprised nobody has posted before I submitted it.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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Ozgin Goon
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In post 2253, goodmorning wrote:In post 2252, Ozgin wrote:Is there any official source material that specifically says it is 100% impossible? Or maybe that it's just unlikely? I mean, if it's ambiguous in the rules, then it's about as null of an argument as you can get -- you simply cannot know if vf's telling the truth or not.
To restate, the official source material says nothing against it, which means it's possible. It is, however, reasonably unlikely.
That being said, regardless of whether or not vf got a response, I just don't know that I believe the story. The whole "I got shot, revived, my read roleblocked, and two people actually died last night."
If we assume pisskop used his roleblock on vf, that still means there are three sources of attack at night phase. I'm a noob here, so forgive me if I'm wrong, but are there not only like, 5 ways someone can be killed at night in a normal game? How likely is that?
Let's analyse this assuming he's telling the truth.
Mafia don't want to be investigated, for obvious reasons, so they RB him. Maybe they take a shot at him. More likely they settle for the RB because they assume he'll be protected. We'll guess for the sake of the exercise that they killed Boon.
Now there are several other possible players:
Wolves: maybe shot pisskop. Or maybe they weren't willing to take the chance that the Cop could be Maf-only.
SK: There's no real precedent afaik for Cops finding SKs. However, a good SK strategy is to make the Town implode while you steadily pick off the real threats at Night. Losing a PR would help that along. SK could also have thought he WAS aiming for Scum, see next:
Vig: viking's claim was apparently scummy enough that people didn't trust it, which makes him a reasonable target for an impatient or egoistic Vigilante.
Now, we know at least one of these exists because they shot pisskop (presuming no Bus Drivers, which I'm presuming because I want it to be true). If more exist then viking's claim is possible.
The only thing I agree with is this weird "I read the wrong PM" thing, but it's (in my opinion) much more believable to me that a player (regardless of experience) who just got a little flustered and clicked the wrong role PM, because ABR plays (from what it seems) a lot of games.
Back when I had more time for Mafia, I routinely was in 9 games at once. I think my maximum was 13 simultaneous games. And I never once forgot my role in any of them.
You can make of that what you will, but he's already tried to set himself up as superior to the rest of this playerlist. I wonder.
I think I can accept the stuff on ABR (like how odd it is to forget a role, and how you've never had that issue). However, all of the scenarios you give for VF are pretty unlikely. Werewolves scenario is most plausible, but I don't think a town-aligned vig would shoot VF for the same reason the doctor protected him: nobody in their right mind attacks a claimed town-cop until the next day when they have nothing to show for their role. But the mafia wouldn't have nk targeted the person they roleblock, that's just a silly waste of abilities.
I mean, it just seemsreallyrare.
In post 2268, vikingfan wrote:Here are several thoughts:
A, is there a reason NJ's scummy hammer has totally sailed under the radar? pretty much no one has followed up on it from last night even though the twilight had everyone saying it was mega scummy?
B, just out of curiousity, what is the likelihood of another protective role existing in some shape or form? This is NOT a call for a claim, just throwing it out there? In a Normal, I certainly think its possible, I need to go look at some other normals to get an idea. The reason why I bring this up is since it seems to be agreed to lynch me today since I'll die tonight anyway. but if there's a reasonable chance of another protective role, then it seems to be a waste of a good cop.
BTW, if you guys do lynch me, when I turn up town, I'd advise our vig (assuming we have one) to kill ABR overnight, remove a likely lynch candidate and help the town the next day.
In post 2276, vikingfan wrote:I checked several other Normals. Only found one protective role in pretty much all of them. Good luck to the town surviving without a Cop and protective roles if that's any indication .
First of all, in regards you your points:
A) Read my post about why I still remember NJ's scummy action but am not necessarily targeting him.
B) The thing is, it's a little hard to believe that you're a cop because of how your "report" came out.
And in response to your post 2276 (quoted above):
This (as well as your point B in post 2268 which I also replied to) just sounds like a big appeal to emotion. You're trying toscareus into sparing you, and it would be more effective for you toconvinceus of your innocence.
Can you please tell me, to the fullest extent of your ability without exactly quoting it, what the pm you got at the start of this day from ika telling you what your results turned up (or obviously didn't)? The wording is critical, but don't necessarily quote it. Did you get a "No Result" or did you get no pm or what? Help us help you, if you're really town with really shitty luck, help us understand that so we don't mislynch you, because I'm having a really hard time understanding your situation. Clear up the arguments, please.
P-Edit,
Also this:
Ellie wrote:vikingfan: If you want to avoid being lynched today, share your reads - not just on ABR.
This would help your case a lot.
P-P-Edit,
Albert B. Rampage wrote:In post 2282, MathBlade wrote:@ABR Ellie is town. I see what she is doing but for my green skin I won't say.
Shinobi is town. Ellie isn't pro-town.
Where does the Shinobi townread come from? I don't necessarily disagree with the Ellie read, though.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 2204, Shinobi wrote:VOTE: cheetory
This is a good start if we're not going to stare down the "VF is mafia" tunnel all day.
I've also got a bone to pick with Kitz but I accept the fact that I could be biased in that regard. I don't know where her townread on me from earlier came from and it seems like her scumread is based on me not talking to other people, so I don't really know how that could affect her read. Hrm.
Pedit: Yeah, the whole Viking thing is lame and I accept the fact that he'll probably die today. I'm perfectly willing to move my vote there if it'll get people to shut up about it.
So this is kind of scummy to me because it sounds like he's saying, "Let's vote player x because I think a wagon on player y is stupid. But if it's popular, then yeah sure I'll vote player y." Aside from a comment about "apathetic dribble" on Cheetory's part 2 posts prior to making the quoted on above, he almost has no reason to target Cheetory. Then in a Pedit he claims that he'll vote vf even though he disagrees with the wagon, just because it's popular. I don't get it.
I also remember reading some weird position Shinobi took in his ISO about him "wanting to be remembered as being on the NJ wagon because I want to look suspicious."
I don't necessarily scumread Shinobi, but I also have no clue what angle he's working at and it's kinda bothersome. I'd say I lean scum on him, but not convicted enough to FoS him yet.
Pedit:
Ellie wrote:There was a mafia & werewolf setup only two large normals back. NY 178. So no, these are assumptions you are making because you want to call vikingfan scum, not facts.
He didn't say it wasn't possible, he just said it's less common. Be reasonable here, we don't need cloudy junk in everyone's head throwing off reads, which is what posts like this are.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 2306, goodmorning wrote:@Ozgin: Actually there's something of a fad for multiball Large Normals recently, much like the sitewide fad for Neighbours that's pissed off DGB quite thoroughly.
That's good to know, actually. How do you learn about these site-wide metas like this? Like how do you know these sorts of things?
I'm curious. As a new player to the site, these sorts of things would help me know what's "probably the case" or "likely to be," at least in terms of mechanics.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 2308, Ellie wrote:In post 2305, Ozgin wrote:He didn't say it wasn't possible, he just said it's less common. Be reasonable here, we don't need cloudy junk in everyone's head throwing off reads, which is what posts like this are.
Then there is no logic to ABR's post. "Less common but literally just happened" tells us nothing about how ika chose to designhisgame. Therefore it should not be used as an argument. (And you calling this "cloudy junk" and "throwing off reads" is off.)
That's fair, but the way you approached it made it sound like you were misinterpreting his point to make yours. But you do make a fair point, as I already said.
In post 2312, Ellie wrote:ABR: VF's alignment will be confirmed tomorrow. It is optimal to lynch him then. You know this. I know this. We have flipped scum and 2000 posts of interactions to work from. There is nothing stopping us from lynching some other scum today.
How will we learn VF's alignment tomorrow, exactly?If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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Ozgin Goon
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In post 2317, Ellie wrote:Setup design is not statistical.The existence of a werewolf faction has as much to do with those twelve games as the result of a coin flip has to do with previous coin flips. Base setup spec on knowledge of ika, or stop speculating.
While events can beindependent(what you described with the coin flips), in the world of probabilityindependence is actually vital to determining chance.For any given independent event, there is still a probability of it happening.
So let's assume that there are wolves. If ABR is correct in saying the last 12 games did not have wolves, then the rate of wolves is 1/13. That makes P(Wolves) = 1/13 = 0.07692, roughly 7.69% of Normal games have a Wolf faction.
Conversely, there is a 12/13 chance that there is not a werewolf faction. P(Wolfc) = 12/13 = .92307, or about 92.31% of the time. For any independent event, the probability of it happening n times is P(event)^n, so the probability of usnothaving wolves is P(Wolfc)^13 (Since this will be the 13th game in the series of events) which is .34002, or ~34%.
But, here's the catch. It dawned on me that this happens only when events are random.If ika did this setup 100% randomly, then my statistics are accurate. However, it is unlikely and unreasonable to assume randomness in a game that is created and operated at the leisure of a mod, therefore I must reject my probabilities based on reasons of bias.
In other words, arguing over thechancesof this happening is pointless from a statistics standpoint. However, it iscompletely validto say something to the degree of, "I find it hard to believe vf's story because it just seems so unlikely." It's okay to say that because, since the game was designed with a natural bias, everything is of opinion and vf cannot prove his case and nobody can disprove the case.
In post 2374, FA_Q2 wrote:In post 2367, Cheetory6 wrote:It's more the indirect manner in which you've chosen to deal with me up until this point that bugs me.
You're clearly aware that I've been scumreading you, so why go to the effort to call my case and play shit to other people but not say it directly to me or try to convince me that I'm wrong? I agree with you that I don't think people are considering you at all, which is why I'm trying to decide what I think of what's actually getting talked about right now rather than apparently just dumbly trying to push you and everyone ignoring it.
If you're so sure that ellie and VK are scum together, why aren't you voting ellie instead?
Because I think that VK is the better target at the moment and his flip will strengthen/weaken the ellie case considerable. I do not think that the revers is nessisarily true. I also have an issue with blindly refusing to lynch people no matter how scummy they might be because of a role claim.
Yesterday the argument was do not lynch VF because it is not a good idea to lynch a claimed cop. I agree with that for the first day - give it a chance to play out. Day two roles around and the argument is EXACTLY the same. Why is tomorrow going to be any different. How long do we play around with vf? We already have a good idea that even if his claim is completely honest - he is not going to be helping town anytime soon. I dont think ellie is the best lynch.
I am not against her wagon though. If the decision at the end of the day is between her and VF then I will not shed a tear but I am going to stick with VF until I am convinced that he is not the best wagon to pursue OR it is shown that he is simply not a valid lynch for this day.
So if we lynch VF we could potentially lynch the cop, but there's nothing actually saying he's the cop because he didn't have a result to turn over to us today.
The only thing to be had from voting for vf is the value of his flip, which will help strengthen or diminish a lot of scumreads (Ellie, ABR, maybe a little on Math, etc.). The questions is:Are you okay with that? Are you okay with lynching a potential cop in exchange for information on a few (at least two) other players?
In post 2379, goodmorning wrote:WHAT? MULTIPLE PEOPLE HAVE EXPLAINED THEIR REASONS FOR FINDING VIKING'S CLAIM POSSIBLE AND ABR INSISTS THAT IT'S IMPOSSIBLE WITHOUT ADDING ANYTHING NEW TO THE DISCUSSION?????
O M G
W O W
1) Nobody said it was impossible for vf to be lying, not even ABR. The issue is doubt. A lot of us (including myself) are very doubtful of vf's claim, and he hasn't responded to my (that I've noticed) question about what his response PM.
2) Your yelling and capsing and general flaily response isn't necessary.
3) Even if you think ABR is a prick, there's no reason to go off like a firecracker for it. Keep your cool and relax.
In post 2402, Kitz wrote:So, after having disappeared for a tiny while and return to read.
What The Fuck Did I Just Read?
It's like a bunch of kids bickering way to dawn for not being Player 1 in that nintendo game.
Multiple players have gone through the process of BSOD in their brains. Cool.
I also notice that I've been quite transparrent. Nothing in referrence to me or anything, even though I did a shotgun blast at the recent scumhunt.
I'm also mindfucked enough to write like this.
NJ's even more scummy for it's lack of contribution and lack of care about the blames.
Shin's scummier too.
ABR's just being weird at the moment spite being scummy. Yo dewd, you like to argue.
Morning's even more visible. ALL DAT CAPZ
Okay.
So.
Why all that bickering with the Setup, not about the actual setup, but the freaking Lottery Chance about it? When I hosted stuff on TvT, I just use RandomOrg or something and randomize roles, before balancing it. I assume the hosts do that here too, so Statistically I don't think that's a thing to argue about. Then again I have little clue about hosting setups in MF, but man, is that really that argue worthy about Chance? It's like the Blue Scratchcard has a higher chance to win than the Red Scratchcard...
My opinion about VK Lynch :
1. The only thing it confirms for us is that there's 3 killers in the setup.
2. Although it might reveal scum mates, everyone's crazy and weird here. Even normal town may be reluctant, so would it actually tell much at this point?
3. Food for thought. What if he's immune and used that as a bullshit excuse to get away?
4. Another food for thought. What if he's part of a 2nd team and the first one is against him?
5. Why are no one giving him a last chance? The RB is dead, and if he's Cop Scum would kill him anyway. A mislynch would just waste our time if 5 is the case.
6. Because of 5, I think there's better targets, who can actually give information by a lynch.
Have fun with your new conspiracy theories. 5 holds the greatest weight, and we can lynch him the next day anyway if he fails all.
Another thing : Why is it under the radar that ABR retracted his Tracker claim? He claimed Tracker out of the freaking blue because he didn't have time to deal with the BS he said, and then later he retract by saying that he read it's a different role PM.
If that's true, he have Sinned. Not discussing more of that Sinned thing, but let's see... He retracts? Are you really letting that go under the radar? You should take your time to read the Role PM, and if you're going to claim a role then you're going to make sure it's your role before you end up getting counterclaimed by an actual tracker and then lynched. This is extremely anti-town behavior, inconsiderate, and risked revealing even more PR.
Would an Experienced Player do this? From what I see, he's from 2007. That's more than enough time to avoid any of this.
VOTE: Albert B. Rampage
So you say NJ and Shin are "scummier" this day. Can I have more info on the Shin part? I get the NJ points. I do think his hammer was scummy but I believe I explained why I don't think he's scum.
As for your part about ABR, I do agree that it is really shitty to have lied about being a tracker (or perhaps been genuinely mistaken). The thing is, I don't think he's scum based on how sincerely he's pushing Ellie. Granted, this read is biased because I find Ellie to be mildly scummy (Or at least anti-town), but I don't feel like a scum would push genuinely on someone like Ellie.
I'm still struggling with the whole vf/Ellie debate in my head: Which one is scummier and warrants a vote? I'm leaning towards a vf lynch over an Ellie lynch because Ellie, while I've had some iffy reads on her, sort of exudes a kind of town-like frustration as a result of ABR's push on her and on vf. If we lynch vf, and he flips town, Ellie will be all but confirmed town in my mind. On the other hand, a scum vf flip would make me lean more scum on Ellie.
I think the vikingfan lynch is valuable for the read potential it has. I'm willing to go ahead and VOTE: vikingfan.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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Ozgin Goon
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Aside from his comment saying "100% vikingfan is lying," he's never really saying it's not possible he's wrong. He's really just speaking out of exaggeration to get his point across.
Any reasonable person would say that there's always a possibility they're wrong about a scumread or a townread.
I mean, I could be wrong about ABR - He could be a scum pushing on a town or a scum bussing a scum partner to gain rep or to distract us from our scumhunts. Who fucking knows? I don't. I just think it's reasonable to say that ABR is just playing with exaggeration and harsh sarcasm and such to make his point.
But what do you think makes Ellie town? Have we forgotten her whole, "I personally think vf is both town and cop, but yeah I'll lynch him if it means it makes me popular" argument?
NakedJogger wrote:In post 2410, Ozgin wrote:
I think the vikingfan lynch is valuable for the read potential it has. I'm willing to go ahead and VOTE: vikingfan.
You can pretend to know he is scum. The only downside of letting him live another day is if he's got a useful scum PR. Other than that we can just be like "hey look, scum has posted something, how cute" every time he posts. Come on it'll be fun.
Even if that did sound fun to me, it would be back because he might actually have a scum PR. And besides, if the object of the game is to lynch scum then why wouldn't we just lynch the person we were sure is scum?If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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Ozgin Goon
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In post 2441, goodmorning wrote:(For the record, I don't scumread the phrase that everyone else scumreads because I've said shit like that as Town. I scumread the post that says "No.")
Goodness gracious. Can we stop taking ABR's version of this game as gospel?
Fair enough. And yeah, I remember that "No." post, too.
In post 2442, elusive wrote:ABR, I actually don't like Ellie. I don't like her or him from day one at all. I am not susceptible to that kind of buddying and it makes me want to vote her. However, the town wincon is to lynch scums not people who try to be slick. SO patienceness.
Ozgin, ABR making up stuff is annoying as I said and led to town wastage. So therefore, I am holding his words as the words of a raver. Maybe there's an iota of sense but its hidden behind idk raverness.
What do you mean, "led to town wastage"? Can you elaborate on that a little more?
And do you think that raving is more common to zealous townies than really active mis-lynching scums? I would think that someone who raves ambitiously are more likely to be town than anyone, but I'm also a rookie and ABR probably knows that I'd buy into that, so who knows? I'm under-informed of a lot of meta, so I don't know that this is/isn't ABR's average level of zeal.
If vikingfan would just answer my question about his response pm at the start of this day/last night, I would be more inclined to lean Ellie and probably move my vote.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 2448, Ellie wrote:In post 2445, Ozgin wrote:If vikingfan would just answer my question about his response pm at the start of this day/last night, I would be more inclined to lean Ellie and probably move my vote.
Erm, ignoring the part about me, why would that make you unvote VF? The case against him doesn't rest on that, and he could pretty easily BS something as scum anyway. Explain.
But that's the thing, if his PM really said nothing about his research, I don't think it would make sense for him to know about getting shot and healed but then not say "No Result." Plus, I also want to hear from him the truth about his position, all together in one post. I want him to make a case, all he's been doing in response to pressure is trying to throw attention to ABR.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 2464, Ellie wrote:
Okay. It's just, do you have any strong reads? You're waffling all over the issue of which of me/VF is scum. If he answers one question from you, you will vote me. Since VF and I are both town, I'd prefer for you to actually commit one way or another.
Well, I've just decided to give VF one more night because I don't think it's fair that someone be lynched for poor circumstance. That being said, I still don't entirely buy into his claim, but read below and you'll hear more on that from me.
As for you, this makes you my strongest scumread, followed by a lean scumread on NJ. I'm going to ISO you and NJ and try to figure it all out. What is your read of NJ?
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In post 2475, vikingfan wrote:Ozgin, what exactly do you need? I already reported I am a Cop with the ability to investigate one player per night and will find out if they are protown or not. If something happens where I don't get a result, then the result is unknown. I also received a PM last night informing me my investigation on Shinobi came back as unknown and that I was attacked last night but was saved. Given that pisskop was a mafia RB, it's not a huge jump that he blocked me from my investigation. I have no idea what else you need.
Okay, are you going to be able to use your ability again tonight? If so, now that the mafia roleblock is dead, assuming you survive and don't get roleblocked, please please please for the love of god get a report back to us D3. Then I'll have no doubts about you, and shit, I'd write you a formal apology.
But until then, I'm okay with not voting for you and going with this elusive quote:
In post 2476, elusive wrote:If VF doesn't die N2 then the VF issue should be revisited.
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In post 2482, goodmorning wrote:No, it's not WIFOM, it's a deliberate attempt to point out thatthere are no Scum motivationsfor pointing out that she saw the Doc crumb.
Could it have been a Freudian slip? Imagine this: At night, a player is reading the thread looking for who to nk. That player finds some profoundly awesome piece of evidence that somehow slipped under everyone's radar. The next day, when the person who was nk'd was revealed to be something awesome (like Boon's doctor PR), everyone is kinda getting ready to move on, but the player who found the evidence gets a little egotistical. They want people to realize how cool they are for discovering this awesome, barely noticeable piece of evidence, so they make the error of pointing it out. It's as if they were to say, "Man that NK was a great job on the scum team, they must be pretty damn smart! I bet they're awesome players!" And then just sits there and smiles as they stroke their own ego.
I don't actually think that's the case, but I thought it interesting enough to bring up.
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Sorry it took me another day and a half or however long it's been to post, RL is hard. I'm back for the weekend though, at least until tonight.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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Ozgin Goon
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In post 2519, elusive wrote:Since I'm looking at everything ABR says about VF with a shaker of salt, why doesn't someone less "boy who cried wolf" explain what the mechanics argument is in like 2-3 sentences maximum? He's definitely not on a faction with pisskop so therefore that must mean that VF, if he isn't the cop which I still assume he is based on just the level of derpage, would mean you think there are two scum factions. I'm almost even okay with an ABR lynch over the other two.
This is not her scum game and I suggest you get off this fucking wagon before I stop being such a sweet little cupcake.
If you mean the mechanics argument by the weird argument against vf about his role and his report from last night:
VF got roleblocked in some form (probably by pisskop), so this morning when asked what his cop results were, he said he didn't get any results at all and he also included that he was told that he was shot and saved by the good doctor Boon. People are doubtful because it is rare that a doctor's healing gets reported to the player who was healed (apparently, that's what ABR and some others say here), and also because usually when roleblocked a report comes back "No Result" (again, just what the argument says). If what VF is saying is true it also points to there being more than 1 anti-town faction or player, which some people are also doubtful of the likelihood of.
That's about as summed up as I can make it, but even more tl;dr: everyone thinks it's possible that vf is telling the truth but some people doubt it more than others, and there's no way to know whether or not he is because ika is the mod and can do whatever he wants with things like pms and setup and stuff.
Also, you've been defending Ellie for a while this game, and Ellie defending you. Why is that?If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 2548, Wake1 wrote:Good God.
2500 posts.
I don't know where a good foothold to get back into the game would be.
Just read Twilight of Day 1 and Day 2 and anything that talks about the mechanics of roles or pms or the game setup, for the love of the gods just ignore it.
But that shouldn't matter that you wrote a fanfic about them, what matters is how you play. And to boldly assert that you're a town (on Ellie's part) without any foundation or reasoning in this game is scummy. And even if she knows your meta well enough to say that you're town,what does that have to do with the town's ability to lynch you?She's making it out seem like it's impossible for you to get lynched, and even if she gets lynched it'll be impossible for you to get lynched, almost implying a PR or something.
Her weird hyper-defensive relationship with you is just that. Weird and hyper-defensive. I just want some reasoning as to why you're any more town than someone else, and why she can be so adamant about it? Why can't she provide evidence for her assertion?
And then there's the stuff about vf, I just can't get my focus off her right now.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 2557, elusive wrote:Ozgin,
Well, I already soft claimed in thread so why not look for it. She knows how I soft claim and its there for those who have the vision to see. I was hoping not to call attention to it since {} but go ahead, find it. Maybe someone will find it and put it in ALL CAPS in thread too just in case scum missed it but I doubt it since they got Boon.
If you really think that the scum is so good at reading softclaims, why don't you just come clean so we know that you're on our side? Or at least point me in some direction? I mean, I really don't get your point here. And what is {}?
In post 2560, FakedBlogger wrote:@elusive if you call me maniac one more time I'll go apeshit on your ass.
If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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Ozgin Goon
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In post 2507, goodmorning wrote:In post 2518, Ozgin wrote:
Well, I've just decided to give VF one more night because I don't think it's fair that someone be lynched for poor circumstance.
You're one of them TouchyFeely LIBERALS who thinks everyone should get a trophy just for showing up, aren't you?
Yes, actually I kind of am. Bite me.
Nobody Special wrote:
In post 2535, Ozgin wrote:both town and cop, which can only be beneficial to the town.
Now I feel jaded.
That's a really optimistic view at best.
What's "really optimistic" about it?
In my opinion, every member of town is inherently valuable to the town in terms of staying alive. After all, the town wins when the town survives.
The cop makes a town even more useful, because the cop can give us reports on players, creating conftowns and confscums. If the cop can live past D3, a lot of potentially great information can come out it.
Like I said, there is nothing bad about having a living town cop. If you can tell me what's bad about that, then I'll be floored.
Even if vikingfan isn't great at reading people or pressuring people or voting on the right wagon, as long as he stays alive and gives us his reports on players, he can be extremely helpful to us.
elusive wrote:Ozgin, why don't you do some work and spell it out for the entire thread. I'm sure you know how to ISO. And in that movie I thought, "Why isn't Jason Bateman in more movies and stuff because he's like so charming?" Otherwise it was a sucky movie.
I'm trying to, but I'm a little dull sometimes. Give me time.
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My quotes might be off kilter because formatting is hard, but I think that's accurate.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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Then give us a good report tomorrow. I would suggest elusive because I wanna know what for sure this softclaim was, so I don't have to play the guessing game with her ISO and we can all get some information.
Albert B. Rampage wrote:In post 2573, Ozgin wrote:Even if vikingfan isn't great at reading people or pressuring people or voting on the right wagon, as long as he stays alive and gives us his reports on players, he can be extremely helpful to us.
This sounds like you want to keep him beyond D3 when he inevitably falls short of being NK'd. Are you also going to believe him when he declares a guilty on town tomorrow? This is why I want vikingfan voted out. The fact that he can't get it through his head that I'm suspecting him, with completely reasonable justifications, is also a terrible point against him. He would be a lot more humble and understanding as town who was placed in a bad spot by circumstances, instead he is OMGUSing me, makes very hollow contributions to the game, let me tell you, I don't like it.
Let us remember that vf could be a mafia role cop, a mafia watcher, he could have abilities that are making his buddies struggling to keep him alive day after day so they can maximize their gain from him.
This is... actually a fair point.
But I still think we can get more valuable information from him for letting him live another day than if we kill him. If we lynch Ellie, see her flip, and hear what vf has to say tomorrow regarding his results, if he survives the night. But this definitely opened my eyes a little.
Now I'm just waiting for a response from Ellie to see where I stand.
P-Edit:
Albert B. Rampage wrote:He could be a mafia encryptor, who allows the scum to daytalk while he's alive, and that makes him invaluable to them. I would much rather lynch vikingfan today than Ellie or anyone else.
I think this is a bit of a stretch, though. I mean, you can say this about anyone.
"Ellie could be a mafia encryptor, who allows the scum to daytalk while she's alive, and that makes her invaluable to them. I would much rather lynch Ellie today than vikingfan or anyone else."
See?If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 2654, Ellie wrote:In post 2518, Ozgin wrote:Could it have been a Freudian slip? Imagine this: At night, a player is reading the thread looking for who to nk. That player finds some profoundly awesome piece of evidence that somehow slipped under everyone's radar. The next day, when the person who was nk'd was revealed to be something awesome (like Boon's doctor PR), everyone is kinda getting ready to move on, but the player who found the evidence gets a little egotistical. They want people to realize how cool they are for discovering this awesome, barely noticeable piece of evidence, so they make the error of pointing it out. It's as if they were to say, "Man that NK was a great job on the scum team, they must be pretty damn smart! I bet they're awesome players!" And then just sits there and smiles as they stroke their own ego.
I don't actually think that's the case, but I thought it interesting enough to bring up.
So this isn't something you actually believe?
No, I brought it up because it really interests me. Elusive doesn't strike me as egotistical.
In post 2656, Ellie wrote:NakedJogger, if you are town and hammered for town reasons, simply explain your thought process so we can see how town it was. It's simple.
I second this.
ABR's conviction with the vf case and his offering himself as a quick next-day lynch doesn't seem like something a scum would say. I just struggle to think ABR is scum when he does things like this.
I'm willing to wagon vf if it's a serious push, but I'm a little more convinced that Ellie is scum.
Ellie wrote:In post 2518, Ozgin wrote:As for you, this makes you my strongest scumread, followed by a lean scumread on NJ. I'm going to ISO you and NJ and try to figure it all out. What is your read of NJ?
Asked to post reads to help people townread him, quickhammers instead. That was scummier than the quickhammer itself. I don't think he's on pisskop's team though.
So you just think he's general anti-town? And what about my post where I asked you questions from things I saw in your ISO? Why won't you address them?If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 2579, Albert B. Rampage wrote:In post 2577, Ozgin wrote:I think this is a bit of a stretch, though. I mean, you can say this about anyone.
I'm saying this because there's a high chance he's scum, and people want to keep him alive without understanding the potential importance and urgency of lynching scum.
See that's where you lost me, I think Ellie has a higher chance of being scum,
In post 2580, estival wrote:Ozgin, are you asking me to full claim? Is anyone else interested in a full claim? Most likely I will before day ends.
It would certainly help your case in my opinion, and could potentially help Ellie's as well.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 2665, Ellie wrote:In post 2660, Ozgin wrote:No, I brought it up because it really interests me.
Why does it interest you?
In post 2660, Ozgin wrote: I just struggle to think ABR is scum when he does things like this.
I think people probably can't fake that level of crazy.
In post 2660, Ozgin wrote:So you just think he's general anti-town? And what about my post where I asked you questions from things I saw in your ISO? Why won't you address them?
No, hence my use of the word scummy. I'm still catching up - did you ask me about something other than my read on elusive and my statement that I would hammer vikingfan?
1) The concept of a Freudian slip that isn't just a linguistics error. I'm just utterly fascinated by people who accidentally show their true intentions without even realizing it. Not saying that's what she did, but recognizing the possibility is just interesting to me personally. However, Kitz pretty much debunked my Freudian slip theory.
2) But is it really crazy to be so sure of something that you'd bet your life on it? Granted, it's not yourreallife, but there are some things I'd be willing to bet my life on (e.g. I bet my life that I can go outside and take a picture of a handful of snow and post it because winter sucks on the east coast).
3) No, that's the gist of what I asked you. There was a weird conversation you had somewhere too that I think I asked about, but it was all related to your interactions with elusive and your (potential) mason/lover softclaim.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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Ozgin Goon
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In post 2672, Ellie wrote:Okay, I was hoping for some more creative reasons for suspecting me Ozgin. As stated many times already, I know elusiveverywell. She is town. If you think my read on her is too confident for d1 or d2, then you don't understand how her mind works. This is simply not how she plays as scum.
Fair enough, I can't necessarily argue with you if you claim you know her meta very well and she has confirmed that. But what about your posts saying things like "It's impossible to lynch her" etc., you almost hinted at her being invincible. Why is that?If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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Ozgin Goon
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In post 2674, Ellie wrote:In post 2670, Ozgin wrote:2) But is it really crazy to be so sure of something that you'd bet your life on it? Granted, it's not your real life, but there are some things I'd be willing to bet my life on (e.g. I bet my life that I can go outside and take a picture of a handful of snow and post it because winter sucks on the east coast).
Do you have any beliefs about this game that you would bet your game life on? I was talking about some other behavior from ABR that appears to stretch the boundaries of sanity.
Not necessarily, no. I can say with 80% confidence or so that there is one scum amongst a small list of players {ABR, Ellie, NJ, vf}. I have half a mind to include NobodySpecial in that list for what I think is lurking, but lack of content to me reads more null than scum because I empathize with people who are busy and have RL distractions.
PEdit:
Ellie wrote:In post 2670, Ozgin wrote:The concept of a Freudian slip that isn't just a linguistics error. I'm just utterly fascinated by people who accidentally show their true intentions without even realizing it. Not saying that's what she did, but recognizing the possibility is just interesting to me personally. However, Kitz pretty much debunked my Freudian slip theory.
That was me not elusive.
Really? Man I should l2read. I apologize. Even so, I still don't think you're egotistical enough to do something like that either. You two are just slowly amalgamating in my mind, and I need to separate you lol.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 2680, FA_Q2 wrote:I don't see a good reason to lead a lynch simply because someone had a bad read - EVERYONE has bad reads. You lynch because they are anti-town. If you think he is anti-town then his answer is rather meaningless.
I found this to be one of the most useful posts in the 30 pages that came out of nowhere while I wasliterally just eating dinner.ABR's commitment to his read is really strong, emotional, and opinionated. If his cop claim is true then it's a guarantee'd scum lynch of vf. If he's lying, he's probably only lying to force a lynch on the person who he genuinely feels is scum.
Lying is bad though, ABR, so tell the truth - Are you really a cop or do you just really want vf dead?
In post 2942, Albert B. Rampage wrote:Viking also barely cares about the game and is just going through the motions.
I feel like this speaks to it all. The fact that ABR actually (or it seems that he) cares, and vikingfan is kinda just letting his defenders do the work for him. And since vf was my second scumread behind Ellie (who very obviously is not today's lynch by what seems to be unanimous decision), I'm just going to UNVOTE: and VOTE: vikingfan.
And if ABR has completely pulled the wool over my eyes, I'm going to come after him with tenfold the fiery ambition that he's going after vikingfan now.
Now please everyone, stop shitposting and let's get our heads in this fucking game.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 2965, elusive wrote:Once again my particles say, "Kill Ozgin quick"
Because I disagree with you, or because I changed my mind?If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 2968, Ellie wrote:I'm the town Deputy. Basically a backup cop. If the cop dies, I become the new cop. According to ika, this does not mean there has to be a cop, but I think it definitely suggests that it would be really dumb to lynch VF today.
My post about hammering VF was tongue-in-cheek, and also a crumb: From a certain POV, it would have been better for town if I got the cop role early. So his lynch would not have been horrible. It was neverthelessbetterto lynch scum, so I've spent my time trying to make that happen.
If this is the truth, then my doubts about you have been cleared up because it debunks my scumcase against you. Why is scum ABR/cop ABR a false dichotomy? Itisstill technically possible that he's the cop, unless you were told as the deputy who the cop was.
Also, if vf is lynched today, does that mean you get to use your cop ability tonight?If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 2971, Ellie wrote:It's ... not really possible ABR is a cop, because he's not even reallypretendingto be a cop.
Fair, but it's also fairly possible that vfisn'tthe cop and he bullshitted out a story.
I still think ABR's passion says it all, I've played a very small number of games on this site (which are still ongoing so I cannot talk about them really) but what I have seen of ABR is passionate and ravenous scumhunting.
And even if we don't lynch vf, the ABR lynch will probably happen in it's place. It won't really be "letting the scum decide who the cop is," because one of them is going to flip today.
P-Edit:
Albert B. Rampage wrote:I am the cop. Why the hell did you claim? How many times did I tell you to shut up and vote vf? You're hopeless.
Now heis(at least) pretending to be the cop.
But I second this:
SilverWolf wrote:In post 2975, Ellie wrote:You're not the cop. If you are gambiting town, my role is evidence that VF is town and you should adjust accordingly.
How does it prove which one of ABR or VF is telling the truth?
P-Pedit:
Holy fucking posting.
P-P-Pedit:
vikingfan wrote:In post 2982, Albert B. Rampage wrote:You're an orange. I am the cop, not vf, you're entire claim is useless and your entire play this day is antitown.
Repeating something over and over does not make it true.
And your lackluster fight for your life doesn't help your image as the alleged cop.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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vikingfan wrote:ABR is scum.
Wow, I'm so convinced. You meant that so much. Wow. That was so emotional and deep and connected. That totally sounds like a town on the brink of lynch.
Ellie, even if you're 100% convinced of ABR being scum, what are your thoughts on vf's lazy, half-assed defending of himself? He's basically letting you fight for him. Don't you think his lack of conviction is a little strange? ABR is basically claiming to be exactly what vf says his slot is, and he's barely even putting up his dukes. Is that not odd?
P-Edit
vikingfan wrote:For the love of all that is good and holy, lynch ABR, the lying scum.
Did it hurt when you forced that one out?If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 3048, Ellie wrote:Okay, I'll stop defending vikingfan. With a counterclaim on the table, it makes sense to lynch him or ABR today, and it doesn't really matterthatmuch which we choose.
Just vote vf then, we can figure it all out in the morning. Your vote would put vf at L-1.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 3200, elusive wrote:My Read List
(I will go back and ISO a few people again but here is where I am right now)
Spoiler:
Cheetory6, I'm fine with an ABR death today but not until everyone posts in thread and we get some real content. I do not want to rush it.
Can you remind me where your vote was yesterday? Also, if its Normal then do you agree that everyone who thought or actively argued VF couldn't be the cop because of his doc heal claim is on something that is probably not Truthiness?
SilverWolf, move the game forward or I don't care what you think, feel, etc. ISO Ellie and tell me what you see.
>Votes KC because both wagons sucked but deadline was approaching and no-lynches would have just been disgustingly unfruitful.
>Votes VF because claim was shotty at best and I trusted ABR's play over yours
>iguessimscumnowlol.jpg
But seriously, I voted kc for the sake of progress and I voted vf because I genuinely believed ABR over him. So I was wrong once, and did what I thought best for the town before that. And that makes me "scummy as fuck"? Yeah, that makesperfect sense.
--
ABR is at L-2.
I know I swore I would bring down the flaming gavel of injustice on ABR's head if viking flipped town. Don't get me wrong, I'm really pissed. But after reading the last few pages, and looking back to my own mistakes with the vf wagon, I really think ABRmightbe right in that we are rushing into things, but that could also be the urgent bargaining of a soon-to-be dead man.
So my issue with this game thus far has been the speed at which it develops -- Everyone is posting at the speed of god damn light and just throwing themselves at each other, leading charges against the whole fuckin' world when they can. These spontaneous wagons are doing us a lot worse than they're good for.
Even so, I'm still really angry at myself for trusting ABR over vf, but admittedly vf's claim fucking sucked. I'm not opposed to a hammer on ABR, but I think we need to look at the bigger picture in this game for a minute here. What if ABR was genuinely convinced vf was scum and, this may be shocking to some that it's even possible,was wrong?I know I know, it's hard to imagine yourself making a mistake, let alone others, but us humans are rather strange and tend to make such errors.
That being said,if ABR ever goes L-1 I'm going to reserve the intent to hammer, because I will never forget what has happened with vf, now or in the future.I don't even know if I can do that at L-2, but I'm doing it.
I will definitely look at the posts of everyone in the game and do the spoiler read list thingy that elusive is demanding, but life is a tad hectic. I just got a job, I start work tomorrow and my dog was dead by the time I came home today. But I promise you guys I'll get my head back into this game, I'm caught up as of right now, but I'll go back and do fuller reads of players and my current list of people sometime soon. For now, I have a few projects to work on for school, so I'm off for a little bit. I'll be back later in the evening.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 3388, FA_Q2 wrote:wtt math. How about explaining exactly what you mean with your statements?
UNVOTE
Math seems to be trolling.
If Jesters were normal, I'd say she is that.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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VOTE: MathBlade
For now, my vote is going to rest on MB because she's literally useless to the town AND extremely detrimental to our progress. She's part of the reason why this ABR wagon is just kinda happening, no real push on it and no real charge being lead against him. I don't think we should lynch ABR right now because I just don't know that he's scum, even though I sorta trusted him on the vf mislynch. Elusive was right when she told me not to just vote someone to get a kill, but elusive,a no lynch is bad for us. We need to lynch more scum.
Furthermore, has anyone considered the possibility that ABR was just wrong? He genuinely believed vf was lying because of his past experience playing mafia?
I just think MathBlade is being a bigger dickhead than ABR and is literally ruining this game at this point. And then she complains when nobody takes her seriously when she plays.
I still am perfectly willing to hammer you, ABR, if you go L-1. I still haven't forgiven you, nor have I forgotten. This is kinda like an intent to hammer, only I'd rather kill the troll than the person I hate. That is, until I find another reason to think you're scum.
Besides, I bet elusive is gonna shoot ABR tonight anyway, because she's obviously crumbing vig.
P-Edit:
Why the Wake vote, elusive? O_oIf I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 3579, Wake1 wrote:In post 3577, SilverWolf wrote:Wake-do you have any reads on any of the players in this game right now?
I've not had enough time and energy to read enough to develop reads.
If I post reads on people based on a handful of posts I've read in the last few pages people willbitch.
I'm f****** busy, and struggling to find the wherewithal to play. It's aggravating. It's 9pm here and I feel like I've been beaten up by a 500lb gorilla.
Okay okay, easy there, bud.
This isn't the game to play when you're angry or upset, or out of your mind. It's obviously affecting your reads and your posts.
Go to bed. I know how RL can get. I'm a full time student who just started working, among other RL responsibilities/obstacles. I'm not being a dick when I say you need to go to bed; I'm saying it because you sound like you need rest to prevent yourself from getting in an even worse mood.
And if elusive was my "scum partner," she wouldn't have said she reads me as "extremely scummy" for the stupidest reasons I've ever fucking read.
If you have to, go on V/LA for a few days, we'll understand. You're just too strung out to post with a level head.
P-edit:
@Math - Your raving like a madwoman isn't going to derail much of anything but some nerves. Try building a wagon against someone who should be wagon'd against, for better reasons than just having made a terrible mistake.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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Silver, this was a strange flip-flop. Why did you switch from NS to Marquis, seemingly after it was just lightly suggested to you?
I wanna hear more on the FA_Q12 case, because in all honesty, I completely forgot about them as a player. Granted, I replaced in at Day 2, but still, if I had to list off the players of this thread from memory, I can guarantee you that I would not put him on the list because I haven't noticed much of the play at all.
I'm gonna ISO him real quick, give me a minute.
And sorry about my terrible terrible inactivity, school is a bitch, and so is my family, and a lot of things, so on and so forth.
On a non-personal-rant note, I don't think Wake's replacement is that scummy. I was honestly considering the same thing because of how bad our townplay has been (as a unit), but the reason I didn't was because I know that if I want us to do better as town, I have to play better. That simple.
So I'm gonna try to shape-up, and that's gonna start with a scumcase on someone (that hopefully isn't shit).If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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SilverWolf wrote:In post 3952, Ozgin wrote:
Silver, this was a strange flip-flop. Why did you switch from NS to Marquis, seemingly after it was just lightly suggested to you?
3889
Start there.
Spoiler: What I don't get is:If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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Holding the intent to hammer, just in case Kitz isn't really sure about it.
I'm waiting for FA_Q to get a chance to really speak. I really don't like the "Whatever, blegh" attitude he has those (like in posts 4000 and 4014), I also don't get the contradiction here either, where he defends Wake by saying (basically) "What scum would replace out of a winning game?" followed by "Yeah, I think Wake is scummy..." It just doesn't add up.
This sounds like fake sympathy to me.
My least-favorite FA_Q post is probably this one, where he puts ABR at L-1 because (I am paraphrasing his attitude at that point) "Fuck it! Town lost anyways, who gives a fuck, right?! Thbbrrrrrrttttttt".
All in all, I don't really like FA_Q's posts because they're either null or grossly apathetic to the town situation.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 4043, SilverWolf wrote:Wait until tomorrow Ozgin because he's on late and won't get a chance to speak until later. I can do it as well so no hurry.
Well of course, but I want FA_Q to really understand the consequences he's facing, and if he responds with the same level of apathy that he seems to be playing with, I will bring it down on him.
Marquis wrote:i have no more feelings until i get another flip which will hopefully be my faq2 flip which will in turn hopefully be a scumflip that supertownifies me.
And what if you're wrong (and so are the rest of us who think of FA_Q negatively)?If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 4049, FA_Q2 wrote:In post 4042, Ozgin wrote:Holding the intent to hammer, just in case Kitz isn't really sure about it.
I'm waiting for FA_Q to get a chance to really speak. I really don't like the "Whatever, blegh" attitude he has those (like in posts 4000 and 4014), I also don't get the contradiction here either, where he defends Wake by saying (basically) "What scum would replace out of a winning game?" followed by "Yeah, I think Wake is scummy..." It just doesn't add up.
This sounds like fake sympathy to me.
My least-favorite FA_Q post is probably this one, where he puts ABR at L-1 because (I am paraphrasing his attitude at that point) "Fuck it! Town lost anyways, who gives a fuck, right?! Thbbrrrrrrttttttt".
All in all, I don't really like FA_Q's posts because they're either null or grossly apathetic to the town situation.
Your 'least favorite' post is an abject lie. I didn't put him at L1 because of 'fuck it.' I put him there because he was single highhandedly destroying the game. IF ABR survived then he would have done absolutely nothing at all but distract the ENTIRE town from scum hunting and eliminating any and all ability to move forward. I gave my reasons and here you are taking shit out of context and lying about it.
You all are looking for scum ^ here is more of it.
1) You said hedestroyedthe game. You said town was fucked, not "going to be fucked" and not "getting destroyed," but "fucked" and "destroyed." Your tone was clearly that of defeat AND apathy.
2) It's really fucking cute that you bold one line of my short analysis on you that I made while reading your ISO and contemplating the idea of you being scum, and gave no fucks about the other posts I pointed to. Furthermore, I did not lie nor did I take things out of context -- I interpreted YOUR shitty post. If my analysis was SHITTY to you, then you can only imagine how SHITTY your post sounded to me.
I really want to hammer you, but I'm tired of town running into lynches with guns blazed at the hips and taking town other townies. In light of your recent reactions (arguably the most frustrated posts I've ever read), I'm almost inclined to believe you're town. But answer me this:
FA_Q2 wrote:
I agree with the replacement issue just like you but I am trying not to let that cloud the actual ACTIONS taken by the slot itself.
Do youhonestlybelieve that Wake would be on the winning team, and replace out just to take the heat off of his slot in an attempt to help his already winning team?
On another pseudo-related note:
Shinobi wrote:Tempted to agree with DS. FA should still follow up on that Aeronaut thing though.
Did Ozgin ever have a scumread on FA beforehand?
No, I did not. I actually forgot FA_Q was a player, because (in all honesty) I've been almost completely inactive until this point of D4, and most of the end of D3. I only even looked into FA_Q at the prompt of SilverWolf who asked my thoughts on him. But even so, I wasn't really (and still am not) on the scale of "ERMAHGERD HE'S A SCUMBAG," all I said was I didn't like his posts because of their apathetic (and now in hindsight, defeated) tone.
P-EDIT:
Shinobi wrote:In post 4066, Shinobi wrote:Tempted to agree with DS. FA should still follow up on that Aeronaut thing though.
Did Ozgin ever have a scumread on FA beforehand?
No, he said FA made a very useful post, only coming up with a scumread when he got to L-1.
How convenient.
Read above.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 4072, Shinobi wrote:Like half the game is apathetic. I'm apathetic. I could lynch like half the game and not even care because this game is kind of ass and ABR did something he really shouldn't have.
Why FA over literally any other player in the game that doesn't care? You know, aside from the fact that he's at L-1.
It's funny that you mention your own apathy, because next to FA_Q, you were the other person whose posts I didn't like for the same reason.
Furthermore, for the second time now, I was not strongly scumreading FA_Q by any standards. Period. All I said was that I didn't like his posts, I presented my reasons for not liking his posts, and I prompted him to respond. If I really scumread him, I would have hammered him. Threatening to hammer him, though, is a pretty damn good way to put pressure on even the most apathetic of players. And I got just as good of a response from him as I could have asked for.
Now his wagon is dying down a little, and I think it's obvious why: He reacted in a townie manner to the pressure put on him. And I didn't even have to push the pressure on him, everyone else seemed to have done it, all I did was threaten him with the hammer and he lashed out like the frustrated town that he might be.
And just because apathy is popular, doesn't make it good for the town.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 4074, Shinobi wrote:No, but it does mean you don't really have much of a case to begin with when apathy is prevalent which just means it's really convenient.
Right, so the general consensus/popularity of playing apathetically as town (which, hey look at that, hasn't been working), somehow nullifies my argument that apathy is bad?
I mean, hey, owning slaves was pretty popular back in the old days, so it must have meant that slavery was acceptable and should never have been stood up against.
If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 4076, Shinobi wrote:Except that wasn't the point I was making.
Why FA_Q over any other apathetic player in the game, aside from the fact that he is at L-1?
Because I was asked/prompted, very specifically, for my personal thoughts on FA_Q. I wasn't asked for my reads or thoughts on the current standing players, I was asked for my thoughts on FA_Q.
In post 4077, Shinobi wrote:How does someone even liken slavery to town apathy?
It's a simple matter of using an extreme to test your logic. I'm not saying they're as bad, that's obviously not the point: The point is thatjust because something is popular, doesn't mean it is justified.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 4080, Shinobi wrote:I'm probably just going to cut off this conversation right here because Ozgin is annoying me.
He's probably town though, fwiw.
I promise I'm not trying to be annoying or disruptive, I just feel like our thought processes led us to butt heads.
But I can agree to call the conversation here and discuss more important things.
Stepping away from FA_Q for a minute here (considering his wagon is slowing down and his reaction read town to me), What players are really far UTR right now, and does anybody else think they should be pressured? I personally want to hear from Kitz, who only lightly weighed in on FA_Q once and has been generally disinterested in this game.
I even ISO'd Kitz and looked a little, and Kitz, if you really feel so 'meh-ish', why not replace out, or just try to move past the bullshit that had been stinking up the last few days and try to reap some good information like the rest of us?If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 4099, Cheetory6 wrote:Like I may be wordy, unconvincing or wrong about details, but my gut is fucking roaring and it wants TSO blood and I won't fucking settle for less at this point.
So if you're prepared to find a wagon that won't exist on either myself or TSO then SHIT THAT SUCKS.
I'm not going to be a part of it anymore.
"So I may spout extensive lines of bullshit that doesn't fool anyone, but I really wanna rush into another lynch without evidence because the town isn't doing bad enough. I don't even care if I die trying, I want TSO dead because I wanna follow my heart!"
So if youaretown, what's the point of putting your life on the line to try lynching someone without evidence?
Either you're an overly-confident and emotional town player who's falling ill with ABR Syndrome, a scum who just wants to push another fruitless mislynch, or a 3rd Party (SK) trying to cause chaos by pushing another fruitless mislynch.
What thehellare you?
VOTE: CheetoryIf I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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In post 4206, elusive wrote:21 players, 6 dead all town + 1 dead scum. About 3-5 scum and what about 3p?
That leaves 14 players alive?
Considering ratios, that means we have 1-2 mislynches at most before town and scum are about equal in number?
If we assume the worst (4 scum alive and 1 Third Party), and we assume 2 town die every night where we have a mislynch, and we have 14 left alive:
14
-2(1st Mislynch)
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12
-2(2nd Mislynch)
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10
-2(3rd)
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8
-2(4th)
---
6 <--- Close enough to 5, but if there are only 4 scum total and one is dead with a 3rd party..
-2(5th)
--
4<--- Here is where we'd be fucked.
In other words, we actually have up to 4 or 5 if only 2 town die each night. But that's unrealistic, because it's more like 3 people die each night, but the 3rd Party doesn't know who the scum are, nor the town, so then..
4 scum alive / 14 players alive
1 3rd Party alive / 14 players alive
9 townies alive / 14 players alive
Assume the chance of a 3rd Party (SK) killing a scum/town is 50-50.
Assume the chance of scum killing town at night is 90%, the SK being the other 10%.
Assume the chance of the vigilante (assuming one exists) killing town/scum/SK is 45/45/10 percents, respectively
If we mislynch tonight, the possible outcomes of the night are (since orders nor repeats don't matter):
Town, Town, Town
Town, Town, Scum
Town, Town, SK
Town, Scum, Scum
Town, Scum, SK
Scum, Scum, SK
If I color code them in different shades to correspond with this legend, then we can see our odds of how our night will play (bolded for clarity):
Most Likely
2nd Most Likely
3rd Most Likely
3rd Least Likely
2nd Least Likely
Least Likely
What does this boil down to? Simply put, in my opinion:Another mislynch at this phase would be devastating, and we can't afford one. Period.
PEdit:
FA_Q2 wrote:
The general tone I get from Oz is devoid of emotion - controlled. Maybe it is that comforting avatar
I don't feel like I'm devoid of emotion, but I'm trying really hard to keep my control and composure because when I freak out in games I always get mislynched, the way I'd describe my feelings for this game would be desperate. I feel like every lynch we make from here on out needs to be peer-fuckin'-reviewed by to-notch scientists to make sure our logic is sound, because at our rate, we're just fucking ourselves over.
And yes, my Avatar helps me keep my cool because Raymond Reddington is cooler than a cucumber .If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3-
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Ozgin Goon
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- Posts: 844
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In post 4210, dragonspawn wrote:Oz, are you calculating 1 nk and the mislynch or 2 nk and the mislynch?
I dont think your calculations are correct but I'll look over it again.
I'm calculating 3 NK's tonight, assuming we have a vigilante, a Serial Killer, and a Scum Team still in play, that's the 3 Kills of Scum/Town/Sk in each row.
That's based on the event of a mislynch today, assuming we kill neither scum nor the SK.
P-EDIT
@Aero and @FA: I don't get how either of you are townreading Kitz, I looked into her and I thought we was just about pure null because she's lurking pretty hard and she simply doesn't care about this game that much (it seems), so I'm finding it difficult to read her at all, let alone town read her.If I'm modding your game, I'm sorry in advance. <3