New York 180 (Endgame)

[elusive]

Actually, when I thought you might be X or Y I thought of replacing out but then I doubted you would join an ika game.

[Ellie]

Setup design is not statistical.

The existence of a werewolf faction has as much to do with those twelve games as the result of a coin flip has to do with previous coin flips. Base setup spec on knowledge of ika, or stop speculating.

While events can be

independent

(what you described with the coin flips), in the world of probability

independence is actually vital to determining chance.

For any given independent event, there is still a probability of it happening.

So let's assume that there are wolves. If ABR is correct in saying the last 12 games did not have wolves, then the rate of wolves is 1/13. That makes P(Wolves) = 1/13 = 0.07692, roughly 7.69% of Normal games have a Wolf faction.

Converse

ly, there is a 12/13 chance that there is not a werewolf faction. P(Wolf^c) = 12/13 = .92307, or about 92.31% of the time. For any independent event, the probability of it happening n times is P(event)^n, so the probability of us

not

having wolves is P(Wolf^c)^13 (Since this will be the 13th game in the series of events) which is .34002, or ~34%.

But, here's the catch. It dawned on me that this happens only when events are random.

If ika did this setup 100% randomly, then my statistics are accurate. However, it is unlikely and unreasonable to assume randomness in a game that is created and operated at the leisure of a mod, therefore I must reject my probabilities based on reasons of bias.

In other words, arguing over the

chances

of this happening is pointless from a statistics standpoint. However, it is

completely valid

to say something to the degree of, "I find it hard to believe vf's story because it just seems so unlikely." It's okay to say that because, since the game was designed with a natural bias, everything is of opinion and vf cannot prove his case and nobody can disprove the case.

As previously stated, the point is that the probability of a random setup including a werewolf faction is completely outweighed by the probability of ika including a mechanic by which protection targets are informed, which would mean there

must

be either a werewolf faction or serial killer. ABR and others keep returning the conversation to the wrong issue, the statistics of werewolf factions, when that has nothing whatsoever to do with vikingfan's alignment.

[elusive]

You could ask ika and PM me about it, you know so I wasn't confuzzled as hell.

[Ellie]

shimmers

I hope I don't make you want to replace out, but there was a lot of drama and not much chance to talk when you left. I would probably replace out so you don't have to if that were the case.

[Ellie]

This alt identity has some quirks.

[elusive]

Okies, aren't you glad I wrote those fan fics? <3 I'm happy you're here and eventually I will be able to have an alt with *quirks* and not alt slip two seconds after making it.

My replace out fear was related to a particular person who said "ika or me" and I chose ika so here we are. No backsies on those kinds of nonsense.

I'm trying to reread this game now and will update today at some point. Pisskop interactions make FA_Q2 look back. I'm not sure about NakedJogger actually, he might be maniac town as I sort of thought at one point.

[Ozgin]

If vikingfan would just answer my question about his response pm at the start of this day/last night, I would be more inclined to lean Ellie and probably move my vote.

Erm, ignoring the part about me, why would that make you unvote VF? The case against him doesn't rest on that, and he could pretty easily BS something as scum anyway. Explain.

But that's the thing, if his PM really said nothing about his research, I don't think it would make sense for him to know about getting shot and healed but then not say "No Result." Plus, I also want to hear from him the truth about his position, all together in one post. I want him to make a case, all he's been doing in response to pressure is trying to throw attention to ABR.

[elusive]

Ellie, You should still ask ika and like PM me and stuff

[FA_Q2]

Pisskop interactions make FA_Q2 look back.

?

I assume that this was supposed to say bad. If not, I have no idea what you are getting at.

care to expound?

[FA_Q2]

At this point, I would like for everyone to vote for one of me, ellie and vikingfan.

Then we will see where each one stands.

My role pm is still an issue. I can't say anything more about it due to ongoing games.

It is not at issue at all - virtually everyone is pretty sure it was an outright lie. The issue is that you lied. As others seem confident that this is your general meta day one (and it was even said that you were likely lying when you claimed on day 1) many of us are running with that as a non tell.


I don't like the fact that you are willing to lie and am usually all about lynching players that act in that fashion but we have good scum suspects this day and I am not willing to policy lynch when scum is apparent. Lynching you really is nothing more than a policy lynch. I find support of such a scum tell when there are good candidates available.

[FA_Q2]

People disagree - how terrible.

It would be far better pointing out WHY people disagree rather than simply pointing out that there is disagreement. Disagreement is a simple fact of this game.

FAQ CONFIRMED NOT READING

Goodmornig confirmed lack of reading comprehension.

Again, pointing out that others have said they disagree is meaningless because we have all see the posts. Reiterating why you agree with the case moves the game forward. Asinine statements like the above just make you look like scum.

Try again.

[Ellie]

Okies, aren't you glad I wrote those fan fics? <3 I'm happy you're here and eventually I will be able to have an alt with *quirks* and not alt slip two seconds after making it.

Never had someone right fanfic about me before O_O

I made this alt partly out of curiosity, and partly to see what it was like to play without having a reputation as a certain kind of player. I'm kind of missing my reputation at this point, though.

We should talk after the game, but I wouldn't feel comfortable PMing another player during the game even if ika approved it. Old habits.

[Ellie]

I still think MathBlade looks town,

but

I'm getting more and more concerned with the fact she won't acknowledge that vikingfan dies tonight if he's town.

[dragonspawn]

oh god guys, kitz is super town

1) Nobody said it was impossible for vf to be lying, not even ABR. The issue is doubt. A lot of us (including myself) are very doubtful of vf's claim, and he hasn't responded to my (that I've noticed) question about what his response PM.

the facts are indisputable

and lead to vf being scum.

VF is lying, pure and simple, in a provable way.

There's no chance

that he's telling the truth

There is no way

that ika would creatively sprinkle a role like that into a normal game.

He has violated basic tenets of mafia normalcy metal and there is a

0% chance that he's town.

Mark my words carefully.

Zero percent.

vikingfan is 100% scum.

Please.

2) Your yelling and capsing and general flaily response isn't necessary.

YES IT IS

CHARACTERISING IT AS FLAILY IS

REALLY WEIRD THOUGH

ABR is town? WOOowowoowW. How did we get here? You yourself have voiced frustration with the pointless vf discussion and whatnot, now you want to townread the guy who gave that shit propellers and made it fly and eclipse the sun?

How very very weird.

Hey look this is a useful thing from NJ what?

I think pks defense of naked is something we all need to consider.

Do you think Scum is obvious about defending their partners?

They can be on day one when they think there is no chance of being dead.

[Ellie]

If vikingfan would just answer my question about his response pm at the start of this day/last night, I would be more inclined to lean Ellie and probably move my vote.

Erm, ignoring the part about me, why would that make you unvote VF? The case against him doesn't rest on that, and he could pretty easily BS something as scum anyway. Explain.

But that's the thing, if his PM really said nothing about his research, I don't think it would make sense for him to know about getting shot and healed but then not say "No Result." Plus, I also want to hear from him the truth about his position, all together in one post. I want him to make a case, all he's been doing in response to pressure is trying to throw attention to ABR.

Okay. It's just, do you have any strong reads? You're waffling all over the issue of which of me/VF is scum. If he answers one question from you, you will vote me. Since VF and I are both town, I'd prefer for you to actually commit one way or another.

[Ellie]

pisskop was squirming hard under my pressure. I don't think he would have picked that time to strongly defend a partner. That said, NJ can probably be unaligned with pisskop and still scum.

[Albert B. Rampage]

What the hell? Players pm'ing each other privately now?

[elusive]

So ABR, you wish for attention. You're close to getting it now since you aren't reading carefully and both of your proposed lynch targets are No. Read carefully, ABR because that way leads to sadness.

Just ISO Ellie and see that its clear she's not scum, she figure out pisskop when most were giving him a free pass.

Re PMs in elsewhere land I was told by a Mod that with permission and with a clarity that the conversation would not be about the game a player could PM me and I could PM back. So therefore, I said ask the Mod because I think it depends on the Mod what they allow or not.

[elusive]

"Fall into an abyss," whispered Elusive to no one in particular.

[Albert B. Rampage]

She's the serial killer then. Everything about her survivalistic. She spotted the doctor because she was looking for him during the night. She buddies up to people to keep her well protected. She's doing her utmost to pander and stay alive, whether that means softclaiming, or bringing out of game elements into the game, or lynching a cop she believes is telling the truth.

She is the serial killer.

[Albert B. Rampage]

She literally just changed the game dynamic by going "this is who I am", now you have meta on her nobody else has, and you tend to trust her more because you and Ellie share something the rest of us don't. She's appealing to past relationships. Forming new ones. Trying to be pleasant and appeasing and surrounding herself with a herd of people who blindly townread her.

[elusive]

Scum are my priority and will always be.

I don't have enough experience to figure out SKs but I do know that scum are more into finding the SK then town because they fear them.

I'm not sure who the SK is but <3,

Spoiler:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3XSkTRHyVI

Scum first. Scum first. Scum first.

And Ellie is generally a pleasant person. She doesn't do my style of pushing people towards the abyss so I don't expect that.

Why are you so convinced NJ is town? What about TSO? What about FA2? What about Shinobi? What about dragonspawn who's alive mostly because of people defending his town meta?

[elusive]

Most likely there are two scum factions plus an sk? Is that the general belief about the setup?

[Albert B. Rampage]

I'm not convinced NJ is town but all the suspicious people are dead-set against him.

I think the setup is one mafia faction and a SK; that's it.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Shinobi is town. TSO is town. FA2 I think is town too.