NY 169: The EPIC XD Mafia Game of Greatness (Game Over)

[Norlkaz]

I'm Llamarble but I play somewhat differently on this account.

UNVOTE: Muffin

[Norlkaz]

This game is destructively noisy.
The first 5 posts on this page didn't need to exist.

[Norlkaz]

I doubt Maraca are a viable wagon today after the claim.

I find it unlikely that MCM is actually a mason.
"The scum have daytalk because the masons do" is an invalid deduction.
No urgent purpose for sharing such "knowledge" exists anyway.
And it is obvious that claiming mason at L - 6 reduces town's odds of winning.

[Norlkaz]

I doubt Maraca are a viable wagon today after the claim. I am open to lynching Geists. Not at all confident in the read but I dislike the other wagons although I am not entirely sure about SC.

VOTE: Geists

Changed my mind. 2848 was incredibly town but I pushed it farther to make sure I cover all my bases and don't get paranoid of you again for the rest of the game. I was townreading you all throughout the game and wanted this one read to be my stake in the ground (especially with Tammy being V/LA) but that wasn't happening because I couldn't see your reasoning for the MC townread. I guess I got what I wanted. Sorry if that was annoying.

F16 why did you use the phrasing "I am open to lynching Geists" in a 'working out the kinks in a townread' situation?

[Norlkaz]

The scumteam is:
Goodmorning
Bert
Cephrir
Tammy
Casso

I was going to make a scumteam A and a scumteam B, but these 5 are all together.
VOTE: Bert

[Norlkaz]

Tammy is town.
VOTE: Goodmorning

[Norlkaz]

Llamarble flies by the seat of his pants more than Norlkaz does.
Norlkaz is much less noisy and needs to be caught up before becoming active.
I have read through page 120.

In a game this large I believe it is difficult to lynch scum without a couple of town leaders.
I was planning to be one today, but I failed to bite in to the necessary degree.

I shall read Stuffed Crust now and either put down a vote or put down a reluctant vote.

[Norlkaz]

VOTE: Stuffed Crust

[Norlkaz]

I'll be driving all day tomorrow.
After that, I shall participate fully.

[Norlkaz]

I am caught up, but figuring out who to lynch will take more time. This is not an easy game.
Cephrir and Bert stand out as capable scum who are currently active but not in the trenches.
I don't especially trust Generic, but tilting into someone who will probably claim a PR is worth at least a few points.

A scumteam based on Pieguy, whom I don't understand the townreads on:
Pieguy
Bro
BBQ?
Muffin or Desp
Ceph

VOTE: PieGuy

He'd be an effortscum, but how many players are left who wouldn't?

Casso is still an option. F16 less so.

I am somewhat disgusted by MC / GM being masons, but they laid considerable groundwork for the claim and haven't backed down.
It's worth mentioning that Marangal claimed masons as scum in Wingate, but she was also scummier in that game.

[Norlkaz]

Bert is also an option on team Pieguy.

[Norlkaz]

My EARS said "WORMSIGN" while I was reading Nacho's #4410.
I had to look around and make sure that wasn't somebody's ringtone or something.
The post is alarming because the primary purpose seems to be showing us how much work Nacho is doing.
His descriptions are too detailed for a notes-to-self post but too mashed-together for a persuasive post.

Geists being our Official Town Leader is something I approve of.
I would appreciate improved quality controls on your posts so that I can work with you, though.
I selected Norlkaz for this game over Llamarble because Norlkaz generates pristine, beautiful ISOs, which should ensure people actually read my posts.

[Norlkaz]

I'm fairly confident you've seen a "Nacho showing off how much work he's doing" post, and it usually comes with limitless quote stripes and is followed by coasting, coasting, and more coasting.

"As scum my play looks more like thus and so" is on my list of statements that come more often from scum than town.

[Norlkaz]

Do what you must, Geists. I'd rather not create more posts discussing creation of posts.
Having a Dictator is productive. Otherwise scum will make whichever town leader wants to lynch town win out.

Broseidon is probably town and potentially a mason.

I'd say that Nacho's Sangres wall had substantially more Bite.
I grant that he stacked reasons together in a similar manner, but Sangcho used emphasis in a way that made it clear his paragraphs had purpose beyond existing.
VOTE: Casso

I don't have a raging urge to lynch SSK.
My latest scumteam guess goes:
Bert
Ceph
Casso
SAD is a possibility.
Sakura is a possibility.
I must reread PieGuy.

[Norlkaz]

PLEASE ABORT.
Geists, I think you have chosen poorly.
First and most importantly, SSK is NOT likely to flip scum for behavioral reasons I shall explain when we have more time.
His doctor claim has gone uncountered. I find it unlikely we have no protective role.
Doctor is valuable here because we have a lot of other roles claimed AND we're on evens with our vig dead.
The high likelihood scum will shoot him if we leave him alone is a factor as well.

[Norlkaz]

Those of you who have played with SSK before are welcome to tell me why the below aren't good reasons to townread him.

• Here are some posts that use emphatic wordings I find somewhat more common from town than scum:

  WHAT IS UPPPP? SSK HERE REPLACING ROFLWAFFLE.
  Tammy=Uber Town
  

  Vote Korean BBQ

  I'm always ultra defensive, and I always give a readslist when I replace in. I always talk theory with ffery. For all alignments. None of these are indicative of my alignment.
  And yes, you are misreading me. Heavily.

• "Don't you want to know why I'm voting you?" is a towntell because town believe their vote Matters and others should care about it whereas scum are usually happy to be ignored.

  GIF, why are you not curious about why I voted you?

• He actually considers a response to him, and instead of inventing a new justification or going somewhere else he stays where he is because it's a :real: gut read:

  Hypocrisy isn't a scumtell.
  I like serious votes. But thanks to that explanation, I'll rescind my attack on your reasonless votes being scummy.
  Fair points there.
  Meh yeah. I guess I wasn't giving a wide enough scope. But as I said, it's mostly gut.

• Immediate and emphatic reactions tend to come from town, unless something high-stress is going on:

  PEdit: See! That post right above me does the same exact thing! Oh "They look like I'm scum talking to town. Or that's really weird sentence right there, SSK". I see your reasoning right in those lines of how exactly I'm sucm. Stop trying to vote low hanging fruit, Ceph. I was townreading you earlier. Now, I dunno.

• He shows a decent chunk of believable scumhunting effort here:

  It's a Pieguy ISO Dive everyone!
  

  Spoiler: Pieguy ISO Dive

  Total Contribution= 64 posts
  Average Player Contribution=1050/20=53 posts= PASS
  
  POSTS:

  warning: lazy as fuck catchup post so I probably missed a lot of shit
  
  22 Sakura scum. I'm having a shitton of trouble believing this post came from the same person who always preaches "reasonless RVs are bad", and MC Maraca hadn't posted yet, so I don't see how it's not an RV.
  47 giving me weird vibes. it seems really really serious compared to the rest of the thread. not sure how comfortable I feel with that given he's townreading geists for being "at ease". however this is gut and looking back on it later I think this makes him seem town. it seems he legitimately wants to get the game going already
  55 tammy town
  70 goodmorning town
  139 I agree MC seems town
  173 I'm liking BRO's willingness to work with a mutual townread here. however, I still have paranoia from imperishable night. he doesn't seem like he's trolling as much here, which may be a good sign
  184 goodmorning even more town
  238 MC town
  256 give me bourbon plz
  
  this is really weird for me since I still feel like a lot of the game is in the fucking around stage. anyone who knows me knows that I generally get going immediately. oh well
  I'm also not liking Ceph atm, but it's mostly gut and I can't be assed to go back and find anything specific ._.
  
  284 I'm kind of ass backwards skipping over a lot of specific shit here, but I'm especially curious about this
  312 this, I grok. fuck it, BRO can go into the townpile
  326 not liking this argument. Brian hasn't even posted in like forever, so he didn't really have much of a chance to push anyone else at all 0.0
  340

  Except where it doesn't make sense, I keep my stances pretty transparent.

  huh
  362 what the fuck is that vote. he posts all these giant reads walls then votes someone who he hasn't even mentioned? dafuq
  365 ok finally smth apparent I noticed about Cephrir - he didn't out his opinion the deals when the first one came up and all of a sudden he does it on this one? it's convenient how it happens to be when people are saying Nacho looks scummy. this makes me think this read was based off convenience and not legitimate scumhunting
  415 huh I'm seeing what you all are about Generic - in fast and furious he seemed pretty adamant about getting Telo lynched
  445 Generic can be town too
  451 "hey I'm just going to buddy everyone who's scumreading me so I won't get found out"
  463 what the hell is that I thought for some reason maraca was townreading Tammy I need to go back and look at this again
  546 I don't like this on a playstyle level. in practice it's probably not alignment indicative, but read the fucking game make areal vote
  
  haven't seen anything at all since 546. probably bc I'm being a lazy fuck atm. I'll just wing it from here and hope for the best
  
  other things of note, KoreanBBQ has a shitton of content and there's nothing in there that gave me a townread on them. feeling kind of icky about them atm

  Fairly typical catchup post. Wish the statements had more behind them, but whatevz, mine was worse.
  

  town
  1. Tammy
  2. geists (fferyllt + Natirasha)
  4. MC Maraca (Cabd + Ms Marangal)
  10. pieguyn SonOfZeus
  
  probably town
  5. F-16_Fighting_Falcon
  6. Generic
  11. BROseidon
  14. goodmorning
  
  null
  3. Casso the King of Seals (Nachomamma8 + Thor665)
  8. MafiaSSK roflwaffles
  9. Stuffed Crust (Mac + Varsoon)
  12. Brian Skies
  16. pitoli
  18. DOMO
  
  lurkfuck/unsorted
  7. roflcopter
  17. talah
  20. Desperado
  
  scum
  13. KoreanBBQ (GuyInFreezer + Nero Cain)
  15. Sakura Hana
  19. Cephrir
  
  

  @EVERYONE:

  if one of my townreads or null-town reads is wrong who do you think it probably is?
  
  

  @KoreanBBQ:

  what's up with that statement of how Varsoon is scum if he had less than 2 posts at whichever point? I'm especially curious
  
  let's fucking go \:D/

  That's a pretty awesome readslist. And it has questions. A reason given with each would be cool, because I know that these can be faked but the depth of the sorting, almost counteracts that.
  

  also
  

  vote: Sakura

  
  GET READY I'M GONNA TAKE YOU ON A WILD RIDE

  Nevermind that. Never gives a reason for voting. Sure in future posts there is justification but future justification can retroactively prove pieguy's vote.
  
  Like when pieguy does try:

  1. Because it's Maracabd and us 3 go ways long.
  
  2. Who's the one WIFOMing here?

  1. see that's my point. given you always say that reasonless RVs are bad, why wouldn't you just out the reason at the time when you made the RV?
  
  2. this is one of the most deflective answers I've ever seen and doesn't actually answer my point. not to mention you don't even say how my post is WIFOM. can you explain plz? also, I'd appreciate if you could answer the question directed towards "EVERYONE" in big bold letters at the end of my catch-up post

  1. I didn't have one at the time, I just wanted to leave a post in the thread.

  I don't get it. can you explain further
  

  2. You're the one that's bringing it WIFOM about it, I repeat, why wouldn't I do something I normally do as town when I'm scum rather than something different?

  no I pointed out a valid reason and you're the one who chose to put up a WIFOM defense by going "why would I do xxx as scum"
  

  @KoreanBBQ: what's up with that statement of how Varsoon is scum if he had less than 2 posts at whichever point? I'm especially curious

  Simple. I've never read Varsoon wrong. Before that post, if most of the posts were from Varsoon, that would be way off his usual townplay and would be most likely scum.

  why do you have mac as scum?
  
  I haven't looked into SC's posts more but if Varsoon has made more posts since then how's your read on him coming along?
  
  which of my townreads do you think is wrong?

  It's just questions towards Sakura. It's never definitive. That's why the vote exists as a definite statement that you think lynching the person will be beneficial towards town. But I digress.
  

  anything specific you like about him?

  @BBQ:

  what are your thoughts on Cephrir?
  
  

  @Cephrir:

  what are your thoughts on BBQ?

  I like these two posts though. They're genuine and prove a benefit towards town.
  

  that doesn't really help me >_<
  it reminds me of how zmuffin and you had the least specific townreads on each other in imperishable night, and you both were scum 0.0

  Your seemingly-blank-looking-null read on Casso doesn't help anyone either ♫
  (a.k.a. Why null?)

  he's been pushing people all game but I think he does that as both alignments so I don't wanna write him off as town just for that. I'm not sure I like his jump on pitoli. it seems really weird considering he hadn't included pitoli in his reads list wall before then. aside from that, he's in kind of the same boat you're in where htere's a lot of content and I'm concerned that none of it makes me wanna townread him. I moved him up to null bc I've liked his pushes on people, but I'm keeping my eye on him
  
  also, how the fuck am I supposed to get a better read on Sakura when she only had like 3 posts? if it seems too easy it's bc I had to make a judgment based off hardly anything. her few posts that she had lean scum and that's all there is to it

  @F16: the first part was due to this

  At least two of them are not Town.

  I liked this stance and how she's being upfront about questioning shit that she thinks is incorrect
  
  the second part was this

  On pure odds I'm gonna go ahead and disagree with you.
  1. It's not a stat course.
  2. Odds distract people.
  3. Unlikely =/= impossible, and it's not even that unlikely.

  it's another stance that shows she's holding true to her beliefs
  
  my read on BRO is a mixture of both of those things. there was another game we played where I had him as null-town almost entirely based off gut and he was scum (thankfully on d2 I turned that shit right around). some of the stuff he's done in this game, combined with the fact that it doesn't seem to match that game, makes me feel somewhat comfortable with him as town atm
  
  generally it means that, at the time of that post, I have that person as town for various reasons. it can be bc of a certain post or a culmination of a bunch of things up to a certain post
  
  in fast and furious Generic was town. he had a scumread on Telo, he wasn't backing down, and he seemed set on getting her lynched (eventually she got lynched and she was town). so I agree that the fact that he's more agreeable here seems odd

  K, pieguy. I get it you're town.
  
  Keeps doing townie stuff for a while until here:

  yo I'm town as fuck. wanna work together?
  
  in the meantime, why do you think geists's posts feel off?

  Mentioning that you're townie, even if it is true, is always scummy. And in addition, trying to force a townblock is scummy, but I mean, I guess it could be town? I dunno.
  
  And then a couple posts later comes this even worse post:

  #swagginwagon
  

  vote: BBQ

  Which is just sooo off from pieguy. Sheeping? Getting on a wagon? With a complete lack of reasoning or even interaction with BBQ, beforehand? I don't get it.
  
  Then there are these two posts:

  what the hell is going on I don't even

  talah where the hell have you been o.o

  That feel like an odd form of buddying/ pieguy not being himself. Pieguy asks questions. There were no questions directed to the players motives here.
  
  But all returns to normalcy in the following post:

  idk I was townreading her but I'm starting to have reservations about her too
  
  Tammy brings good points. also, I find it awkward she seemed really excited when I replaced in and she hasn't interacted with me at all since then. that plus Generic's point makes me think some of the stuff she's done so far is fake 0.0 I'm being a lazy fuck right now so I haven't really tried to do any formal sorting, but that's where I'm at
  
  what do you think about Sakura so far?

  good town stuff.
  
  And that carries on for a while. Lots of questions, lots of reasoning.
  
  Then the only other posts that bother me are recent:

  While it may be easier to townhunt, how do you not get in a cycle of confbias? Especially when someone reaches the point where they can be on your townbloc, then you're looking for why they can still be town and not why are they scum. It's less effective and more prone to bias.

  do you ask this every single time someone forms a townbloc or what
  
  like whats the point of this question. do you srsly think forming townblocks is alignment indicative?
  

  As for the basis of my reads, there were no particulars otherwise I would have mentioned them. Most of them were just my gut feelings. Take that as you will.

  are you at all confident in any of those reads
  
  I'm ok with this
  

  vote: SSK

  Here because the vote has had no reasoning for pieguy to go after me ever. And then continues as such.

  I'm pretty confident with my gut? It's usually right, but I like to have substance behind it. So not all the way confident.
  But why are you voting me? What makes you think I'm being scum?

  you don't seem confident @_@ mostly bc you didn't mention anything until you actually gave said reads list, and your tone in 1042
  
  it looks like you're just trying to coast through D1 by asking random questions. I'm not entirely sure on you being scum, but screw it
  
  now that I think about it tho, I made the same mistake with you on imperishable night

  Confidence is apparently a scumtell, not giving reasons in a readslist is also apparently a scumtell even though pieguy dd the same.
  And I ask questions. That's how I hunt. Just like you.
  Your case on me is bs

  
  QED: I just wasted an hour. Pieguy's town. But has a few odd quirks that give it reasonable doubt.

• "I don't understand this wagon" is a way of phrasing things I've noticed I employ much more as town than scum.

  I don't see why StuffedCrust is the leading wagon. They're pretty town IMO.

• This is believable; "I am so not getting lynched today" is the kind of thing a Real PR who expects their role to keep them alive says:

  Okay. So there's not enough time now and I am so not being the lynch of the day.
  
  

  I am the doctor of this game.

  
  
  Scum can kill me fine, but I am not getting policy/deadline lynched for lurking again. Not as the doctor.

• The "I think Geists is a great asset to the town but not a good choice for town leader / what masons?" line of thought sounds genuine.
  It particularly sounds :Unguided: so I'll be impressed if it turns out to be a scum-QT-product.

  I don't think geists should be given the trust as being such an official town leader. Natirasha is very reactive, and that's really not good when deciding on a very rushed or heated lynch.

  There are no such things as official town leaders. There are leadership vacuums and there are players (usually multiple players in most games) who fill them. And they do that only with the cooperation of the majority of players.

  No shit. Do tell me more about how mafia is played.
  What I was doing was indirectly commenting on the quote that you quoted. Providing my own opinion on why thinking of geists as a town leader is badidea.

  Who did you protect last night?

  You. Because you are an important asset to town.

I hope you have all enjoyed my Radiance.
I hope I have not embarrassed myself by defending scum.

[Norlkaz]

pretty sure that's exactly what happened tho

Those of you who have played with SSK before are welcome to tell me why the below aren't good reasons to townread him.

Tell me why those things work from SSK scum and I'll reconsider.

[Norlkaz]

and then norl

If a serious attempt comes I shall eat you alive, even if I have to break character.

[Norlkaz]

*throws fit*

This post serves no purpose. If something upsets you, do something.

There are reasonable counterarguments to many of the things I posted regarding SSK.
Isoscum deployed a similar "why are you ignoring my vote" and the emphatic quickreaction may have been real excitement caused by how well Ceph's post fit the narrative he was creating.
"I don't understand this wagon" is certainly an easy way to not engage.
Perhaps that read was wrong. I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again.

Casso's first hundred posts don't justify not lynching them.

[Norlkaz]

The time has come.

Casso's next 125 posts are more town than the first 100.
UNVOTE: Casso

[Norlkaz]

why on earth are you treating me like town right now

Desp is not an excellent lynch either, on first pass.
VOTE: Cephrir

[Norlkaz]

I withdraw my townread on Broseidon.
Desp might be scum. Casso might be scum; they have some townie posts but aren't at Nachotown's power / energy level.
20 hours is still enough time to lynch Cephrir.

I think I'm one or two massive timechunks away from a real grip on this game; feel free to run me up D3 if I'm slow on them though it should really already be pretty clear I'm town.

[Norlkaz]

I'm not sure why SSK gave up; it's not like we'd expect his protect to work anyway.

[Norlkaz]

For the benefit of those examining me, my defense of SSK was sincere and I later noted some of the arguments I made didn't feel so strong in retrospect.
It's not at all unusual for me to change my mind or argue against myself, and I think I've actually hurt my activity a bit by being uncertain and afraid to be wrong.
You won't get much more introspection from me. You will get more scumlynching though, as promised.

[Norlkaz]

For the benefit of those examining me, my defense of SSK was sincere and I later noted some of the arguments I made didn't feel so strong in retrospect.
It's not at all unusual for me to change my mind or argue against myself, and I think I've actually hurt my activity a bit by being uncertain and afraid to be wrong.
You won't get much more introspection from me.

You will get more scumlynching though, as promised.

You're all talk (I can see some Mastin in you) and not much else!

You've played one game with me in which I was very important to scum getting lynched D1, my other accepted D1 lynch was also scum, and the other 2 scum were in my pool of 3 additional persons of interest with the person in that pool who wasn't scum marked as eh probably not when revisited.
I then copped one of the scums in my 3-pool and the game would have ended D2 with 4 scum dead to zero town had I been doc-protected N1.
I'd expect a bit more respect from someone whose only other experience with me was a game where almost everything I said was Golden Truth.

I haven't made things happen yet this game, but in a few hours that won't be true.

[Norlkaz]

I don't take issue with people scumreading me at this point; if you meant "you're all talk this game therefore you're scum" then that is an okay deduction.

Can we confirm once and for all who MC claimed masons with?
I'm open to a massclaim here; we're clearly already down our two best roles and are going to have to lynch scum today and go it mountainous.

VOTE: Cephrir
For lack of a better way of describing the pattern, he lacks manliness.
Also he has a lot of posts which have "to exist" as a purpose.
And there are lots of little 'yup this is scum's in there.
I actually feel pretty good about this one.

[Norlkaz]

I'm not drawing direct parallels from ASOIAF, but having played with Cephrir before does help.
Tammy is perfectly capable of yelling at people who call her scum, and worked in combination with some of the people I'd read more closely or something like that.
Tammyscum wasn't a read that stood the test of... lasting more than 3 lines of my ISO?

[Norlkaz]

I don't have a renewed scumread on Pieguy.

[Norlkaz]

Vig is anti-town.

I have about as much respect for this statement as "Creationism should be taught in schools so students can see both theories."
Vig is more powerful than cop. You can wrongly argue against that and I won't be mad, but "vig is anti-town" is actively irritatingly stupid.

I am trying to dig into this game and find the thread of play, but the rush of motivation has been slow to come. I shall make another attempt tomorrow.

[Norlkaz]

I hate to spend time on this, but: Some vig stats
Vigs contribute more to winrate than cops in even number start games (like this one) and break about even with cops in 3:10.
You can construct situations where the cop is stronger, but most of the time the vig wins because a lynch must be consumed to remove a copguilty while a vig's action is confirmable / still works if the vig is shot.
I've always found it weird that Llamafluff champions the anti-vig movement since he's an engineer and should know better, but I think he's had some bad personal experiences.
If you want to talk about vigs vs cops postgame that's fine; I won't be mentioning it further before then. Vigs being protown isn't up for discussion though.

[Norlkaz]

VOTE: MafiaSSK
Even if he turns out to be town he deserves to die for cheese nonsense & "I feel like lurking."
We can add more pages to the thread if for some reason you think that will help town, but putting off a lynch with clear intent to eventually execute it isn't productive.
There are too many possibly wrong assumptions (an NK won't help us figure anything out, SSK is scum) and too much benefit to reducing the number of scum as quickly as possible.

[Norlkaz]

VOTE: Cephrir
For lack of a better way of describing the pattern, he lacks manliness.
Also he has a lot of posts which have "to exist" as a purpose.
And there are lots of little 'yup this is scum's in there.
I actually feel pretty good about this one.

I have seen a lot of reasons for me being scum over the course of my years here, but I'm not sure I've seen one this good at making the opposite of sense. When have I ever been a "manly" mafia player, especially as town. Confidence is literally a scumtell for me. This post might as well read "Cephrir is scum because he's town". That is how much sense you are making.

I'm not drawing direct parallels from ASOIAF, but having played with Cephrir before does help.
Tammy is perfectly capable of yelling at people who call her scum, and worked in combination with some of the people I'd read more closely or something like that.
Tammyscum wasn't a read that stood the test of... lasting more than 3 lines of my ISO?

"I'm completely ignoring every semblance of meta because it doesn't suit my point and Cephrir is playing nothing like he did as scum in that game but I really want to lynch him!!"

My experience with you has contributed to my scumread of you. I have not reread ASOIAF for comparison.
I've never seen you play town. I don't think you're trying to locate scum and get them lynched; I think you are trying to make posts that look town. That's a scumtell for anyone.

[Norlkaz]

I'm sorry for not towning harder and causing people to spend scumhunting time reading me. Tomorrow I'll invest a real timechunk.
I think Titus' biggest strength as scum is an earnest blobby accusations style. I would class him as good scum though not a strong debater.
In ASOIAF his train of thought didn't hold together at all; this may be something that also happens when he's town.

[Norlkaz]

Broseidon needs his face Eaten.
At the time of his D1 extension request, Casso was threatened. Worth noting.

Anyone not voting SSK for reasons other than "I think he's town" should not do that. We have a bad environment now and that makes it worse.

[Norlkaz]

I don't see Titus's push on the soft-claiming vig as alignment indicative at all. Explain why it is town.

It's aggressive as hell and stubborn as hell on a lynch that is obviously not going to go through with reasoning that is not going to push the lynch through, but it all feels very Titus-esque. The biggest problem I've noticed in Titus's scumgame is that she's a bit more susceptible to influences as scum, which means she's a little more agreeable and it leaves her less likely to get lynched. Here she's on the first train out of paranoia station, she has plenty of facts disproving her generally solidly (including a flipped vig) but she hasn't been discouraged in the slightest. That is Titus town.

Uhhh
IIRC Titus got pretty vehement about some pushes that made NO SENSE OF ANY KIND in ASOIAF. I was impressed by how well he pulled off the earnest-derp.
Specifically the "HOW DOES THIS GUY KNOW HOW MANY SCUM THERE ARE" thing which I'm pretty sure continued even after the townflipped census taker was pointed out for him.

[Norlkaz]

There is always towncred to be gained by showing RAWR.

F16 gets the working too hard to be scum emblem.

[Norlkaz]

Ugh. Bro is not a slam dunk.
He's kinda sardonic / engaged.
The things he pays attention to / talks about have a very low 'trying to make town win' level though, so maybe we can still give him to Sarlacc.

P. edit:
Fortunately for you, you are playing with Norlkaz.
One of Norlkaz's primary purposes is to explain things more clearly.
I still need to do a lot of work in order to have things to explain though.

[Norlkaz]

That was my first game with llamarble and I had no idea how to read him. His reads were more accurate than mine for the most part, but during that game on day 1 and 2 I didn't know what to make of him. He had reads but he wasn't pushing them very hard, and the one hard stance he took (espeonage-town) I really disagreed with after I read through the game projectmatt linked and the case he made for espe-scum. So, I'm in a similar situation - not really understanding the basis for some of his reads, and therefore not trusting them. And his playstyle is different but I don't know if that's playing to his alt-meta. He has a harder edge in this game than he did in Red Wine.

Hey, I managed to withdraw my Espeonage lynch veto before we got to the end of D1
F16 is right that there was a decent 'scum are voting him' component.

Today, we're lynching SSK. I've checked a couple times, including just now, and don't disagree with this. I think I got it wrong previously and it will result in a scumflip.
It often takes me a long time to explain myself, and sometimes I just end up backtracking anyway (see original SSK townreasons that had some significant holes).
Generally you will see explanations from me when I have either something particularly interesting or something relatively simple to explain or need to do it to be persuasive.

[Norlkaz]

People who are probably town:
Me
SH
F16
Geists
Mara?
GM?

IONO:
Pieguy
Generic (Haven't really looked at; slightly sketched out but can he fake his mad?)
SAD (don't remember)
Muffin
BBQ (just did round 1; inconclusive)

Probably a decent number of scum here:
Casso
Prophylaxis
Titus
COWBELL
SSK

But yeah, let's just do SSK. It will probably be easier for me to read for real when an actual choice is being made.

[Norlkaz]

Can we proceed with the lynch?
It's very hard not to ignore things that are being posted right now.

[Norlkaz]

Yesterday happened without me >_>
This will do for now.
VOTE: Titus

[Norlkaz]

It does not follow that a vig softclaimer is scum if an actual vig is found; random people fakeclaim or softclaim vig all the time.

[Norlkaz]

This game will get a nice timechunk tomorrow; maybe some tonight as well.

[Norlkaz]

UNVOTE: Titus
Reading.

[Norlkaz]

I think everyone is reading Casso as town thanks to derailing a lynch on somebody now regarded as probably town (though tbf megaderails for buddies aren't common anyway).
I wouldn't be ultraconfident off that but eh I'll get to him eventually.
I think that in general a lot of the townreads are being overstrengthed, with the possible exception of the ones on F16.
I don't particularly disagree with them though.
I'll do the should we actually lynch this guy post tomorrow.

[Norlkaz]

Well I reread Titus & Cephrir.
It's hard to make judgements when I absolutely cannot get context for anything because every ISO has 400 posts.
Titus, it's worth noting that both your KBBQ vig business and your "I can't be scum because Generic claimed JK on me" are FULL ON DERP.
I'll explain for you postgame if you actually meant those things and don't understand why they're nonsense.

I'll have to look at SH next I think.
I don't feel good enough about Titus scum to proceed with a lynch for now. Time remains.
I haven't touched Casso in a while but the rest of the game is making me think they'll turn out scum.

[Norlkaz]

Here's a fun exercise:
Marangal, report to us the important points discussed in your mason-daytalk-thing with a view to demonstrating its existence by bringing up things you'd have had a hard time thinking up now etc etc.

[Norlkaz]

Testing GM / Mara daytalk is a good idea. Much better than making them give a summary.
One approach would be for Mara to post an unfactorably gigantic product of two prime numbers and GM to post the factors.
Pretty simple. Possibly not allowed?

I think pulling associative tells off Generic's interactions will be very profitable.
He was probably supposed to last until endgame but got jailkept.
Scum had plenty of time to lay misleading associative groundwork with obvious-lynchfood SSK.

I regard both Cephrir and Titus as solid scum players.
I think that Titus has been a latent lynch for a while since both Falcon and I have had them on our lists for a while.
I feel like scum would see Falcon and I both voting them and think of them as a good way to secure a mislynch.
Norlkaz, Ms Marangal, Sakura Hana, F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Prophylaxis, KoreanBBQ
Or, Titus is just scum and the above is a pretty town collection.
I think I should revisit Muffin; that's one of the few slots that hasn't delivered a strong dose of indignance when targeted.

I strongly believe 3 scum remain. Gunsmith Jailkeep Masons Vig are all top tier roles and justify a 5 member scumteam.

So now I have a lot of things to do research on. That'll actually happen later.

[Norlkaz]

If GM is scum this game I will eat my hat.

Please refer to my comprehensive reads list.

I know something youuuuuuuu don't~

Do tell.

I find scum tend to take wait and see approaches (as opposed to asking straight up) when confronted with things like this. I have not played with Talah though.

[Norlkaz]

If GM is scum this game I will eat my hat.

Please refer to my comprehensive reads list.

I know something youuuuuuuu don't~

Do tell.

I find scum tend to take wait and see approaches (as opposed to asking straight up) when confronted with things like this. I have not played with Talah though.

[Norlkaz]

If GM is scum this game I will eat my hat.

Please refer to my comprehensive reads list.

I know something youuuuuuuu don't~

Do tell.

I find scum tend to take wait and see approaches (as opposed to asking straight up) when confronted with things like this. I have not played with Talah though.

[Norlkaz]

Talah (guy muffin replaced) definitely can be scum. Haven't gotten to Muffin.
On the other hand SAD 4449 which you just quoted looks a lot like a scum post as well.
Would be impressed if F16 or Pieguy flipped scum given scumhunting effort.

[Norlkaz]

I'm not voting anyone because I have a lot of work to do before picking a lynch.

[Norlkaz]

Proph is doing a really good job if he's scum. He's probably today's counterwagon with most other options good lynches.
Muffin is fully viable as scum.
VOTE: Muffin
F16's Muffin-Titus-SAD scumteam looks really good. I think Casso may also be reasonable, but yeah.
I haven't looked at Arthur in full yet; that lynch may also be fine.

[Norlkaz]

SAD has some dicey posts like 6936 and some questionable interactions but he plays with urgency.
I prefer Muffin or Titus for today.
I do need to reexamine KBBQ.

[Norlkaz]

I prefer Muffin or Titus for today

why?

SAD has some dicey posts like 6936 and some questionable interactions

but he plays with urgency

.
I prefer Muffin or Titus for today.

Wat.

[Norlkaz]

To be fair 1937 is also really sketchy.
I don't particularly disapprove lynching SAD.
I'm more up to date now than I was yesterday but I still don't have a true grip beyond 'people seem to be doing reasonable things'

[Norlkaz]

VOTE: SAD
Perhaps I am being impulsive off of a couple random posts of SAD's and missing the ones that made me prefer other lynches yesterday, but wheeeeee!
I saw a few more posts I didn't like and a couple of 'urgent' posts that were the kind of thing scum can easily rage about. "MUFFIN'S STATEMENT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH YOURS" is an easy thing to get up in arms about if it's true.
In general a scum's posting gets more intense when they get to argue with the Force of the Truth behind them. Scum have FoT when making statements relying on others making errors; Town have FoT a lot more consistently and particularly when talking about their own towniness.

[Norlkaz]

You're scum because I viewed your Iso and I was able to make the hiccupy-can-this-come-from-scum posts work from you scum in my mind.
Titus slot has been sketchy forever.

[Norlkaz]

I missed hammering muffin by maybe 2 minutes.
Complaints that I should be more obvtown are fair but I am certainly getting there.

[Norlkaz]

If I'm scum I did a really good job handling both muffin and SSK.
I don't get how SAD can look at my interactions there as a negative; if anything they're the clearest currently available reason I'm town.

Muffin whats your read on Pieguy

town?

he's been a complete non-factor and him shutting down and not posting anything worth reading lately has me worrying a bit, and i really don't like how he's got this idea of a scum team in his head and is dropping all analysis in favour of tunneling those reads, but i got pie-town feels from his posting on earlier days

Pieguy worth revisiting.
SAD does look a little better thanks to muffinscum.

[Norlkaz]

Casso + Pieguy is my favorite guess, at least off of generic's posting.
That'd have the bonus of making my initial lists not suck.
Probably won't be hard to convince me to lynch Titus today though.

[Norlkaz]

Eh 7434 works fine with Pieguy-town too. There are plenty of other Muffin-sketch-associations to comb through.

[Norlkaz]

Since I'm Norlkaz:
Found 7434 scummy because scum spew caveats on the way to a townread all in one sentence a lot.
At first I was thinking they did this more with buddies but I think it's applied to town just as often in the "I have come up with some negative things to say about this person and I want to use them because they're content but I don't really expect to get anywhere with this so I'm going to call them town in the end anyway."

[Norlkaz]

Darn, I think that's the first vote I've received on this account
At this point you probably have sufficient information to rule me out as scum.

You probably shouldn't be underestimating Titus' ability to take a completely random course of action when circumstances seem to indicate doing otherwise.

[Norlkaz]

It'll probably end up being Casso + Titus.
Proph, Pieguy, F16 all tried pretty hard if scum.
GM Mara me are town
SH did stuff
SAD & BBQ have decent "Eh" dosage levels

[Norlkaz]

It sure does. And Titus pulling reads from nowhere that followed who town wanted to lynch was something I saw a lot of in ASOIAF.

I missed hammering muffin by maybe 2 minutes.
Complaints that I should be more obvtown are fair but I am certainly getting there.

This is bad.

If I'm scum I did a really good job handling both muffin and SSK.
I don't get how SAD can look at my interactions there as a negative; if anything they're the clearest currently available reason I'm town.

This is bad.

Probably won't be hard to convince me to lynch Titus today though.

This is bad.

At this point you probably have sufficient information to rule me out as scum.

This is bad.

Any more bad posts in an attempt to look obvtown? Please get them out while you can so maybe you can go back to acting natural? Kthx.

They're all true, so far as I can tell. I could definitely have towned harder and with more fury but there's enough out there to get it right.

KBBQ's norl is scum because of a list posted days ago where he called me scum along with some people who were town and some people who were scum is pretty derp, but not in a scummy way.

I should probably do more research but I'm going to VOTE: Titus for the time being.

[Norlkaz]

KBBQ's norl is scum because of a list posted days ago where he called me scum along with some people who were town and some people who were scum is pretty derp, but not in a scummy way.

What I was actually saying is that my early reads were p good (and that was before Desp and Domo became ovbtown. I think it was before the mason claim too I think.) I was also being a lil' bit cheeky and playful. That is NOT why I think you are scum but nice discredit.

Well okay, but you did say it:

Part of Norl has to do with...

As of right now this head is looking for scum in

Gen

, Cephir,

Desp

,

SSK

,

GM

,

Talah

for scum with lesser suspicions on

Cabd/mara

, Skies and

Domo

.

Wanting to have all reads right all along IS a motivation for town to stick on someone hoping they flip scum.
I thought you were experiencing that, which looked town but is rather annoying to be on the receiving end of.

[Norlkaz]

Cephrir slot is certainly the best example for me this game of the slot I hope will flip scum because if it does my reads were decent all along.

[Norlkaz]

though, I think I might want Norl a little bit more, but his interaction with scum (I think it was muffin) looked kinda weird

But I'm finally becoming true obvtown!
Witness post 7752, in which I give a somewhat clearly explained first principles towntell for KBBQ.
Town have a yearning to have been right throughout the game scum simply don't have and aren't typically aware of the need to fake.
It's possible for scum to notice that those who have flipped match up well with what they've suggested, or that a scum who fears a BoP argument might check back on old reads lists to see how it will apply (I did this in ASOIAF) but overall KBBQ's town-probability has increased a bit.

It's tougher for me to pattern match on whole ISOs than usual in this game because they're all gigantic but I can at least tell you what single posts indicate.

By the way, who wants to give me a page-range for me to read what happened between Casso / Sakura, because it sounds like that's a place to go for reconsidering The Seal.

[Norlkaz]

Perhaps you are obvtown; I haven't scrutinized enough to actually know and that's not the point. I suspect I'm already more obvtown than you are anyway.
And I could probably still lynch you if I wanted
I finally feel the way being town usually feels instead of "I should read and participate more."

Titus and Casso will each get verification rounds. They will be more thorough this time than last time.

[Norlkaz]

Cephrir checks out. Titus I haven't reread but I don't mind if the hammer is placed.

[Norlkaz]

What do you mean "checks out?"

I have reviewed Cephrir and approve his slot's removal.

Noralz knows my scumgame and he shouldn't be voting me bc he is a player that heavily uses meta.

This is news to me >_>
Anyway, I've made several posts describing similarities between your play here and ASOIAF, so it's not as though I'm willfully ignoring knowledge of you or something.

[Norlkaz]

I'm going to chalk Titus' "Lynch me!!!" posts to him liking to screw with popular tells.
Other than that, his ISO makes me wish there were some way to vote him harder.

So yep, PROCEED WITH LYNCH.
A Titus scumflip will make me way happier about how I've played this game.

[Norlkaz]

If it's Titus / Casso then I've only ever voted scum since my WORMSIGN post (except for the SAD hiccup, for which I blame attempting to think at 9am after insufficient sleep).
That would be cool.

[Norlkaz]

Well that sucks.
VT
Now that there's no chance of non-mediocre reads this game, it's time to focus on just winning.
Did Mara / GM actually confirm their daytalk? Because if not I want one of them to post a hard puzzle or math problem and the other to post the answer / explanation within 1 minute of each other.

Sorry to disappoint you, but there's no significant chance of lynching me this game.
It turns out I'm town, I'm here, and my volume is only going to go up.

[Norlkaz]

Sorry to disappoint you, but there's no significant chance of lynching me this game.
It turns out I'm town, I'm here, and my volume is only going to go up.

See like this doesn't actually work when you don't read town.

Also it look dangerously close to the scum's "I'm obv town whoever wants to lynch me is stupid" thought.

Interesting.

I've already done plenty to be obviously town (my treatments of like every person to get lynched this game have been NON-BELIEVABLY GOOD if I'm scum), but HURRICANE MODE is only just turning on so you're for given for not knowing the utter futility of trying to lynch me when my motivation for the game has stopped flagging.

Nobody ever pointed me to Nacho-Sakura. Whatever, I will go look through their 1060 post combined ISO myself.
#7783 sounds like a scum post. I didn't like Casso OR Proph in relation to Titus yesterday; they both had a very 'get out of the way and let townies make themselves look bad to secure future lynches' attitude.
#7793 sounds like it was prepared at night. What spurred you to make that post, Pieguy?

[Norlkaz]

Through the first half of the first page of the combined ISO, Sakura looks town for the late arrival; the story seems honest and scum are a little more likely to know what's going on with a day QT to take a look at. Casso looks scummy because the only things they talk about are Thor's frustration with Nacho not being posting head and the wagons not being bigger. Nothing to suggest serious effortses from them yet.

Sakura 897 is pretty uninsightful / making up stuff to say about a buddy - ish. I despise "why didn't you apply that to me" in general as it's an obvious non-tell. Sakura is otherwise town so far.

Generic 437 looks Casso-scum.

Casso also looks bad in general in relation to F16 proposal, 1018 with SSK, and basically everything ever.

Gah 1125 also looks bad for SH. "I want to move my vote but it's on my buddy so I don't wanna move it yet."
And 1178. The old "haven't seen things I expect from X" cuz I B scum and I wanna say something non-false. No wonder SH got wagoned.

Alright, well the first 200 of those 1000 posts look cruddy for both parties. That's not surprising for Casso whose first few hundred posts were pretty untown on last pass anyway.
SH's wait what on MC's Proph read is a minor buddyping there too.
I guess unless things change I am not going to be short for scumreads.

[Norlkaz]

Can you link me to the QA Mara, or at least give a postnumber? I have written you off but I'd rather take a look and decide whether I want another round.

[Norlkaz]

I am not a fan of SH's attitude in general.
I have a hard time seeing somebody play like she has and flip scum though.
Sustained "you'll be sorry when I flip go ahead and lynch me" isn't something I've seen scum do yet and I've played a lot of games.
As to why people are calling Casso town off of that interaction, I have no idea.
Sufficiently satisfied with Sakura, Mara, GM.
Leaves Casso Proph SAD Pie BBQ.

[Norlkaz]

pieguyn has done some consistent scumhunting since he replaced in, and zMuffin buddied up to him a bit strongly. *skims zMuffin ISO* - yeah, he's probably town. The Silver Rage makes me a bit worried, but I think he's likely to be town, both behaviorally and by looking at interactions.

This justification for Pie-Town seems alarmingly cursory research for the way you're talking about quick PoE lynches.

Still happy with a Norlkaz lynch, I think. He's been consistently wrong all game (which rubs me the wrong way, since I have decent respect for Llamarble after seeing him play in Cross-Town) and he has the least interactions with scum - if we're PoEing, he's the one I want to off first.

*skims*

Looking at his recent posts, I don't think I'm a fan of him trying to keep everyone as a possible lynch, and I dislike his "I'd be nice if my early reads were actually correct" as a justification for a vote - removes some accountability there. He's declaring himself obvtown but I just don't see it.

Vote Norlkaz

.

First off, we don't know whether I've actually been that wrong. In fact, basically every remaining scum possibility will make something I've posted look better.
My interactions with scum haven't been significant? FALSE.
On SSK, I didn't have a strong urge to lynch him, then LOUDLY defended him. Then reflected that some of the things I'd pointed out were viable from scum. Then voted him the next day while not 100% confident he'd flip scum but definitely going to lynch; discouraged people not voting him for reasons other than 'because town.'
Off him alone, I ought to be pretty clearly town.
I didn't say much about generic, but I think what I did say was completely reasonable. His posting was sketchy but showed mad.
On Mufin: I should revisit muffin -> Talah mostly works as scum except this post -> ok fully satisfied talah scum -> Muffin scummy -> satisfied muffin's Iso works from scum, vote muffin in way that may cause lynch -> new morning thoughts vote SAD.
All in all, I think my progressions make it pretty darn obvious I am actually trying to figure out these players' alignments. And I got muffin right, when I did read him, so that hurts 'norlkaz wrong about stuff' as well.

In the end, I am not magic and if I haven't put the large chunks of focused time in I can't be as impressive as people expect me to be. I've had other focuses / been daunted by the size of this game but for whatever reason that is fading, and the acceptableness of scumreading me is fading with it.

[Norlkaz]

ok. let's suppose I'm scum and Sakura is town

first off, some backstory. Sakura was the one who introduced me to MS. I came over here bc I saw she came over here and she inspired me. she replaced in my first newbie game (which she ended up beating me as scum in and I'm still butthurt about it) and made me feel the sheer agony of defeat, and we've played several games together here which include a few where we got a bunch of people from my homesite to sign up and raid games all at once. she stuck me with a "can't read Sakura" card ever since said newbie game and she's took full advantage of it making fun of me in subsequent games. we've got many hours BS'ing around in IRC mafia. we have a lot of fun playing together and at some point I wanna hydra with her

meanwhile, I became acquainted with her own story on MS. how she used to be obvtown all the time and then how she slowly started to react worse and worse to pressure. and how she blew up and ragequit several times

now I know Sakura was starting to not enjoy mafia anymore and that she was having a lot of RL problems and getting really stressed out bc of work. and I knew how in FEA she shut down and replaced out of all her games when she got wagoned on D1. I also knew in a game offsite that was ongoing at the time that she was starting to get angry after being lynched as scum bc she was doing the exact same thing as town. it's p obvious she's starting to lose all interest in mafia and not wanna deal with it anymore, especailly with her current RL situation

so suppose I have the chance to deadline lynch her D1 of this game. I know all the stuff that's going on with her RL and how she's not enjoying this game anymore. and so if I deadline lynch her I know exactly what will happen. all of a sudden someone who's a good friend of mine and who I love playing with, the person who brought me here in the first place, isn't here anymore and has lost all motivation to play mafia. and idk how long it'd be until I get to play with her again if ever

there is no way in hell I would take that opportunity. I'd go for someone else and move on

and I think Nacho's relationship with Sakura is very similar to mine. so I don't think Nacho would do something like that just for the sake of getting a mislynch when there are so many other people he could pick

but maybe that's just me

that's the best I can explain it. if you don't get it at this point, oh fucking well

Did I mention I don't like the amount of "I have a story to tell look at all this content!" in the above yet?
Anyway, now that I actually read the Casso-Sakura-dual-ISO:

Where I stand on Sakura now:

1) In early game, Sakura didn't really provide much content except for an interaction with Pieguy that felt like a par for the course type of deal. She also made a comment to the effect of "I'm surprised more people aren't voting me for lurking", which is weird considering some things several players in this game should understand. She also dismissed Cabd pretty quickly, and not because they were doing anything but because everyone else called them obvtown.

2) First interaction with our slot, Sakura asked why you were voting KoreanBBQ, you explained, and then she was like "oh, obvtown!" and started sheeping us. I think but am not confident that this coincides with Open 534 (the game that was so horrible Sakura said she wouldn't sheep me ever again), but at the time, it felt like an easy reason to townread us and wasn't really consistent with her "eh, Nachos doing good enough, I'll give him a sheep for now".

3) I found the static vote on SC was weird for someone who had no scumread and instead some townreads and a bunch of nulls. I didn't like her calling me scum for easy townreads, because those are kind of my thing, and I don't like how she backed off ago quickly after Mara posted her town case. Expecting me to be harsher on the lurkers is also emoticon worthy,

4) Agreeing with the town lurk theory that BRO originally presented seems disingenuous because that sort of lurk theory is a BRO original, I haven't seen it anywhere else, and yet Sakura looks at that reasoning and calls it her own? Not likely.

Then there's a bunch of town looking tone bits and now the genuine frustration bit.
I think Sakura has a good chance to be scum; better than SC and F-16 even with the town sounding bits.
And yet, I don't want to mislynch her if she's as frustrated with the game state as she is; I don't want me spearheading a deadline lynch on her to be the reason she stops playing forever, and I'd like to believe that Sakura wouldn't make me feel as shitty as I do right now if she were scum who just got pegged to shit

This is the post I dropped off in the QT before I went to bed last night.

This is pretty apologetic and is not unreasonable from a scum who wants Sakura not to be upset but is going to play to his wincon.
Pieguy's own take on the Sakura wagon was to disappear entirely as it neared its peak, which is plenty sketchy as well.

[Norlkaz]

A few more reasons I'm town: (from the book of 'towntells for me that I'm aware of but haven't managed to fake'):
Being disappointed in myself while defending my performance to others.
Not caring if I antagonize everyone.
Stating I'm obvtown and cannot be lynched with complete confidence. I can say I'm going to be, as scum, but it never manifests whereas here it is.
Taking any actions at all leading to lynches on scum (I think there is essentially no point to bussing, but I sure did vote Muffin in a way that absolutely could've been the reason he got lynched instead of SAD).
At the end of yesterday, I was pretty convinced Titus would flip town and my reads would turn out to have been good and life would be nice with happies. Good luck to future self faking behavior like that >_>

My towntells will increase rapidly and before long shall form such a massive and imposing bulwark that I won't be surprised at all if I get NKed tonight instead of le masoons.

[Norlkaz]

*titus would flip scum

[Norlkaz]

It occurs to me that sh self :hammered: as scum.
Once you claim it you can basically do whatever and its not a violation of the "scum dont go to the depths" supertell.
So yeah I will write her off and if she has transcended that tell then kudos.

[Norlkaz]

Is there any real reason why you posted three times, in response to my single vote?

What is this nonsense question. OBVIOUSLY I had several different thoughts.
The posts aren't even on a consistent topic and have timegaps between them.

What does this mean, again?

'You caught me :selfhammer: screw you guys I'm quitting' doesn't violate "scum don't debase themselves personally to stave off lynch" because it was a hammer and consequently couldn't stave off the lynch.

[Norlkaz]

Pie gets to win if he's scum, unless something significant changes.
As in I find him certifiably town. I haven't re-ISOed the scums recently but yeah.
Not:
Masons
Me
Pie
Sakura

Remaining:
SAD
Casso
BBQ
Proph

That's sufficient to win the game, but let's make sure by winning with the next 2 lynches etc.
I can probably get through one of the remainings a day, maybe more, then have a day for final lynch verification.

Also "I hope I didn't get this wrong" regarding SSK isn't some kind of back door out of defending him.
If anything it's the opposite; my statement established that post as the point at which my read on him gets evaluated.

[Norlkaz]

Why am I on such a different wavelength than llamarble, in terms of PoEing the game down?

Neither of us particularly want to lynch Pie, ourselves (individually, not both), or the masons.
Other than that we differ on Sakura.
I don't see what's interesting about us not having the same opinions.

Why am I on such a different wavelength than llamarble, in terms of PoEing the game down?

I swear I have to reread his posts twice to comprehend his posts on the best of days. :/

That's because he feels forced.

What a scumpost >_>
Also derp. "Careening" is a better adjective for my recent posting (and a better explanation of difficulty in understanding) than "forced."
The phase of my towngame where I figure things out has certainly spun some heads before.
Shadoweh asking me if I am on drugs in Yoloville comes to mind.

[Norlkaz]

I forgot to mention that there was plenty of information to read Pieguy as town when I initially called him scum, so assuming he is in fact town, my bad on that earlier.

Also, halfway through SAD's ISO and I feel much less bad about getting inspired & swapping to him from Muffin.
"I wasn't in favor of our scumteam killing Tammy"
Other stuff I don't remember but was most assuredly highly incriminating and I'll find it if I go back through because I decide to force lynch through.
Anyway, I think I'm gonna want this lynch. Still need to find the partner and make sure the others aren't somehow scummier, but vote-time has been reached.
VOTE: SAD

[Norlkaz]

SAD ISO & meta check complete. Will proceed with others before lynching but very likely he's today's scum.

For it to be a misrep I'd have had to say something that wasn't the same as what you said.
Much of the time "I wouldn't have killed X" translates to "my team decided to kill X even though it wasn't my top choice." It's a scumtell, though not one of the awesome super high percentage ones.

My "super try" mode as you've described it is a sure sign I'm town. My insufferable repetition of how town I am is actually 100% truth tell level town indicative.
As scum I survive a while and win a decent portion of the time because people don't want to lynch me, because I can give reads with reasons and play to some towntells people use, and because nobody can win logic duels with me.
As town I generally get what I want due to loudness strength of arguments reputation understanding of how to persuade and the extreme degree to which I am capable of making it obvious I'm town. How motivated I am varies widely; I had the good fortune of playing a lot of my games last year in motivated-mode and got nommed for something exciting!
I'm in motivated mode now.
So what I'm trying to say is Prepare Thine Anus.

[Norlkaz]

KBBQ produced an ABYSMAL content rate through their first hundred or so posts.
Yeah, whole first ISO page is pretty execrable. Low read elasticity too. Gigantic numbers of trash posts.
Very solid scum candidate so far off his mentions of scums too.
I hope the townreads people have on him make nonzero sense after another 500 posts because this game was supposed to be obv casso + SAD bang bang end.

[Norlkaz]

BBQ unfortunately cannot be removed from the lynchpile at this time. Poor reflecting interactions with generic.
Muffin protected (don't lynch list) after Gen dies. Sketchy interaction there as well.
Low evidence of trying to figure things out and make scumlynches happen, particularly for an outrageously long ISO.
Not nearly so many OH YEAH TIME TO KILL IT pings as SAD though.

I'm pondering lynching Casso today because he may add 2 scumvotes via sakuraproxy.
SAD looks like a very high success-probability lynch though.

Anyway, Casso and Proph, and then deadscum reexamination, then a round among the remaining scums to figure out which isn't.
Once game totally solved, I will make a proclamation of what to do tomorrow, we lynch one scum, I get NKed, and hopefully you doofuses lynch the other scum tomorrow as instructed.

[Norlkaz]

I was thinking about things this morning and realized I'm actually probably in some danger (if and only if Casso is scum).
If Cassoscum then I could eat sakura nacho and BBQ votes and die, which would suck.
Nacho's really the best placed to read me here, having had a lot of exposure to my recent scum & town games and the embarrassingly obvious differences between them.
If people genuinely don't trust me for some reason, I might be okay with an "I get one shot to lynch scum and if I miss I get lynched tomorrow and then you guys lynch my second target the day after when I've flipped town" deal.
I'd hope to eliminate somebody in my pool as a scumpossibility before doing that though because as is we require all lynches to hit all scumcandidates.

[Norlkaz]

My selection for today's lynch WILL be scum.
One of my strongest characteristics is KNOWING when I have a game figured out.
A weakness might be not demanding sheep even when I'm not confident because my accuracy is generally still quite high when I'm not fully zoned in with a grip on the thread of the game, but eh.
When I demand a lynch, I usually get the lynch I demanded and I have a VERY good success rate on lynches I specifically demand.
And I am starting to smell BLOOD.
Anyhow, the point is that "If I miss today" isn't intended as a serious possibility so much as giving you guys insurance against the possibility of scum me in case you are too blind to understand that calling myself obvtown repeatedly is a town-guarantee-truth-tell-trololol-zero-possibility-of-me-being-scum.
Like, even TAMMY is better at faking her obvtowngame as scum than I am. To anyone paying attention, I am CERTAINLY more obvtown now than she became this game.

As for "Fake Scumhunting" I've been examining ~ a thousand posts a day for the last week or so. I have begun to internalize the thread the way I need to in order to solve the game with full confidence.
If you want to understand how much I'm looking at, consider my notes & replies regarding things from the ancient past of this thread. I am OBVIOUSLY looking deep now and in new places.
I'm making heads spin because I am speaking to the whole thread instead of merely what is currently going on.
So don't give me "fake scumhunting." More like Apotheosis.

[Norlkaz]

It's rather fitting that I'd alt-slip on that post, which is extremely llamarble and not very norlkaz.
Ah well, at this point I have ceased to care about anything other than winning.

[Norlkaz]

Read more carefully. I am not comfortable with removing you from the lynch pool.
That is not at all the same as YOU WILL FLIP SCUM.

[Norlkaz]

I am uncomfortable with lines 3 and 4 of 726 where Thor spends a bit of excess time talking about hydraing with Nacho.
Honestly I think he's probably going to turn out to be town though. GDI my reads have sucked unless it's SADPROPH or Casso is actually scum. BUT WHO CARES JUST GONNA WIN.
I think some combination of being scum in ASOIAF and getting things so right so often that I became afraid of being wrong messed me up in Red Wine and much of this game. NO MORE FEAR. JUST WINNING.
Anyway, back to reading.

p.e.
Yes, you have reasonable chances of being scum. That's very far from where SAD is sitting in the ALMOST CERTAINLY TODAY'S DECAPITATION category.
I think Hana is very very likely to be town. I will revisit her at least once just like everyone, but I currently have no intention of lynching her this game.

[Norlkaz]

I'll have to revisit your ISO to get specific, but references you made to flipped scums matched patterns for referencing scumpartners pretty decently.

Casso I can't trust. There are pieces that make me expect a townflip but this isn't close to ASOIAF I WILL SOLVE THIS Nacho and the interactions don't awesomefavor them being town either.
Thor is a readability-reducing factor. My Thor-reading performances have been mediocre.

[Norlkaz]

Though if you want to take a step in the earning-llama's trust direction Casso, you are welcome to inform these good people that I have over the last week or two annihilated any possibility I had of being scum.

[Norlkaz]

Latest F16 summary before he died:

I am thinking KBBQ, Sakura, Proph, and Norl are town. Those are my top four townreads. Eliminating them, Mara, and GM, we still have Pie, Casso, SAD, Titus. I think Pie could be town but I am not certain.

I pretty much want to lynch Titus because I can't for the life of me see Cephrir being town the more I think about it.

This suggests SAD-Casso. Or at least SAD. Maybe they deleted F16 because he'd be an obstacle to lynching me, which looked like a necessary part of a scumwin.
Prophbert is the last remaining ISO before ROUND TWO. May or may not touch him today.

[Norlkaz]

How about you address the fact that my current behavior is essentially a truth-tell for me-town?
Like, I try to do this as scum but I have not succeeded, nor come close to succeeding.
Dying would work as well.

[Norlkaz]

That ssk v bbq vc is somewhat favorable for bbq and a bit unfavorable for pieguy who looked like floating from vote to vote without own significant opinion and proph who was part of making bbq compete with ssk. Ssk was mostly successor wagon rather than counter. Bbq gets a few points for driving on ssk there.

[Norlkaz]

It's not my experience that scum put any particular extra effort on protecting their PRs; encryptor particularly isn't very important compared to a goon.
As I said early it also wasn't much of a This wagon Vs That one situation as 'this one came after that one.'
Proph's slot was one of the only votes that could be described as helping BBQ wagon fight SSK wagon.

[Norlkaz]

I didn't finish reading Bert / Proph today.
His vote for F16 is somewhat alarming for me, as are a few other things, but it's not at all conclusive and he has certainly put a lot of work in / done some town sounding things too.
Deadline is like 4 days away. I suspect I won't be sure of both scum by the end of today but I got a very strong positive on my last SAD readthrough so if I can get confident enough when I revisit that we should at least have only one left tomorrow, which should decomplicate the problem a lot.
And even if we do hit scum today there's a very solid chance I'll live to tomorrow in which case getting the second one is DGAF.

[Norlkaz]

I am happy!
Bert's ISO contains a lot of him mumbling in the corner and a few sketchy interactions with SSK (one in which he basically tells him stfu with a level of disrespect I think usually wielded against teammates who understand it's not meant to be mean).
On the other hand the 2 scum games I checked out he didn't put in nearly so much work. I'll have to go see others.
I need to get through Proph and revisit SAD today first though.

[Norlkaz]

Bert also went into a bit more depth in a towngame I browsed. He isn't :too: surface-levely here though. Basically I need to go through less of his stuff slower and with more focus when I revisit.
Proph's initial replace in post is quite good. Looks at a bunch of things and gives a "here's where I've gotten to" which indicates an "I am still working through this" sense.
"Casso and geists have been proven innocent via gunsmith, IIRC?" - I'll have to check context on this but it may make Casso-Proph very unlikely, which is nice since that would improve SAD's scumodds.
Ok, Proph's play has been excellent if he's scum. The train of gamesolving is good, the vote on muffin is good; I don't really see much in the way of "maybe he is trying to make something bad happen" posts.

I don't really expect Proph to be scum, so if I didn't make any mistakes then Pie / Sakura / MC / GM / me / Proph are town against 2 of SAD / Casso / KBBQ.
I think the most likely false-member of my town pile is currently Pieguy, so I will recheck that slot harder and with more scummeta-checks.
Here's hoping SAD continues to look like scum on reread...

[Norlkaz]

I'm not as confident of Proph-town as the above post would suggest; he's not in the willing to lose if scum tier. I don't expect I'll want to lynch him today though. Definitely staying in SAD Casso or BBQ today.

I'm glad you unvoted me SAD but you're still checking in as scum
Your defense against your wagon on D2 was along 'rage against the illogic' rather than 'rage against the injustice' lines.
The "don't lynch SSK information" bit was very viable as a defense of a buddy. I wouldn't call that a reason I'm scumreading you, but it's not giving me reservations either.
I don't see the same amount of evidence of trying to solve a puzzle that I do on Proph / Pie. There are points and pushes and votes, but I don't feel much in the way of "okay here's what I think is going on" or attempts to progress toward fuller understanding.
You have a lot of 'somebody tell me whether X does Y as town,' which I've decided isn't particularly telling of itself but seems to be a substitute for "I dug into the following game event and came up with thus and so Idea" a little too often.
It does feel like you're putting things together at the beginning of D3, but I do find scum tend to post with a lot of strength shortly after day-start.
I don't see enough of how you got to muffin-scum to see that not as a bus, particularly given very moderate pushing level. I may still recheck that.

If scum decide to leave the mason-pair until lylo, that can be dealt with then, and they can re-prove their daytalk a few different ways.

I will probably go through more things, but after round 2 on SAD I don't think I'll get more confident on anyone else.

[Norlkaz]

I don't see enough of how you got to muffin-scum to see that not as a bus

Umm I already explained that? + At that time my gut was screaming he was scum and he was by far the best lynch imo.

That is possible but I do not find it convincing.

Unvote
Vote: Norlkaz

Ok...

Did you just try to sheep nacho on a vote he didn't even make?

[Norlkaz]

Also Casso I don't think interpreting the same information in different ways over time is a scumtell.

[Norlkaz]

Here is SAD's progression on Muffin during the period which eventually led to Muffin's lynch.

Welp, the Generic-Muffin interactions are practically non-existent, Generic basically ignores mufifn the whole game, asks Bert about his read on muffin once, and puts him in his lower tier of suspicions

Pie
Proph, muffin
Geists, Norlkaz, Casso
F-16, KBBQ, Sakura
FM, Mara

i am typing this very slowly with my left hand while my right hand

That sentence ended very differently than the direction I thought it was going in...

Anyway we should probably get the geists/gm/mara thing over before day's end.

The next three posts came in pretty quick succession after Proph voted for Muffin. I find them viable from both alignments.

I can probably dig a muffin wagon.

if you're actually pushing this as a reason to think i'm scum, then fucking lol

See like this feels fake and ooc.

Compare:

Muffin can start raking up some scumpoints for his recent posts.

cool. why?

also why geists scum and why casso town?

Also do you usually take suspicion on you this lightly/calmly, or are you trying to materialize this air of coolness around you by brushing off suspicion on you in an attempt to look town?

i'm a really cool guy. and your read progression on me makes me smile a bit

with

if you're actually pushing this as a reason to think i'm scum, then fucking lol

See like this feels fake and ooc

did you actually read proph's post?

All of it?

Seriously? You should know me by now

coz he's literally suggesting people are town/scum based purely on the number of interactions. like, read it.

Well I read the part about you and your response look like "I will belittle your accusation quickly and assertively" more than "lolol thats a terrible accusation".

Idk something about the wording of it, and the fact that a defensive statement (your first line) was your first reaction rather than "SERIOUSLY? LOL", and the latter looks like it was inserted to belittle, rather than be your primary reaction.

Uhh, imo?

Unvote
Vote: Pieguy

Good wagon is good.

FUCK

THIS

SHIT

Vote: Muffin

Here lets lynch actual scum.

A notable point on this post is that it comes right after SAD posted a couple responses to Pie attacking him.
The suddenness of it is a point in SAD's favor. The post is definitely believable from town, and a quality fake (but not impossible) from scum.
This is the kind of thing I'd like an opinion on from folks who've played with SAD.

New crackpot,

F-16/Muffin.

You saw it here first.

Okay some last thoughts in case I get lynched today (I'm gonna be out for the rest of the day) (I can't do tiers right now because they're gonna look weird and I don't know where to place half the people):

muffin - Okay, here's the thing with muffin. I feel like his play this whole game has been an attempt to look like that guy that everyone likes. He doesn't really push anyone strongly, picks on hanging fruit, and tends to buddy up to people. This is evident by the fact that ones I started suspecting him recently, his attitude towards me changed. I just feel like his play this who game has been a fake ruse he's put up just to not attract attention. I also don't like his response to proph scumreading him. As I already said it just reads very very fake.

Gl town if I'm lynched! Er.. if not I guess I'll see you day 6?

(Yes I'm keeping my vote on muffin. By far my strongest scumread at the moment, and has the highest chance of flipping scum imo. There's a slight chance I will be able to check the thread again at some point, so I might be able to change my vote somewhere else (yes A.K.A preventing myself from getting lynched)).

Honestly, this collection of posts is definitely possible from town. I'm going to call the SAD side of SAD-Muffin a point in SAD's favor but there were a lot of other things too...
I feel like I'd be better at detection of bussing if it were an action I ever performed myself.

[Norlkaz]

Casso certainly is not a bad choice. I can read them both ways.
I'm not feeling as sharp today, so I don't want to try and progress.
I'll put some time in tomorrow, but I do have work stuff.

[Norlkaz]

I keep having this feeling where I stop believing SAD would actually flip scum. but the last 4 times I've had this the person actually flipped scum so

I am very thankful for your posts pieguy.
You have reassured me of you town and sakura town and sad | casso | bbq containg the remaining scum.
Also I felt just the slightest bit lonely.
Yay!

[Norlkaz]

I quoted one of the primary reasons. If Pie's scum he captured 'townie doubts' nicely and on the spur of the moment.
He's also lined up nicely with my thoughts; I'd be surprised if neither Casso nor SAD is scum and those are his targets.
He's also simply putting in the work; reiteration of a prior (and pretty decent) reason for Proph-town (Generic's posts) shows a solving attitude instead of content production.

[Norlkaz]

We don't have an enormous amount of time left; now would be the time for people to make "WE SHOULD CHOOSE SAD OVER CASSO (or the reverse) BECAUSE X Y AND Z" posts.

[Norlkaz]

What scum motivation is there for changing a scumread to a townread when there are so few left. PLUS the fact that as scum I literally keep my reads static whereas if you meta me you'll see that my town games are filled with read changes like that because I usually have an initial gut reaction to something and then I step back and better evaluate the situation, which very often leads to a mood change.

Overall I'm still getting more "I offer the following counterarguments to your arguments against me" out of you than "HOW DO YOU NOT SEE I'M TOWN WTF."
Scum are very quick to point out when something they've done isn't necessarily their typical scum move, even though there is a totally reasonable explanation for performing this action as scum in this situation.
I'd say engaging at the logicwars level while showing less evidence of puzzlesolving are the largest reasons I'm voting you.

[Norlkaz]

I wish I felt more certainty here. I'm going to ISO you again SAD, so if you want to list the 3 biggest reasons you can think of that you're town there's still some chance we lynch Casso instead today.

[Norlkaz]

Well you could walk us through your feelings / important decisions / changes in attitude you've had over the course of the game.
Unfortunately that last line is also something scum do with great enthusiasm.
Casso-scum is a very threatening possibility here because he has both Sakura and Mara under his flipper.

[Norlkaz]

I am starting to think I want to defect, so I'm not going to let anyone hammer in the meantime.
UNVOTE:

[Norlkaz]

Pieguy re: Sakura reminds me a bit of me re: Elleheathen in ASOIAF >_>

[Norlkaz]

I didn't manage to resatisfy myself of SADscum.
I could be interested in a pivot to KBBQ.
The last page of their ISO covers basically the whole game beyond D3 or so, and I am not impressed.
I'm going to leave my vote there for a couple hours and do something else; I expect to be back later this evening and tomorrow prior to hammertime.
VOTE: Korean BBQ

I'd be curious to hear more BBQ opinions before day ends.
I'm going to have to reread Pieguy because I lost a lot of my townconfidence on them.

[Norlkaz]

Well, here's hoping my last minute reservations were derpmode.
VOTE: Ser Arthur Dayne