Mini 1800 - Game Over

[MagnaofIllusion]

Greetings. I haven't been following this game at all and only replaced in because GreyIce is a cool guy and I wanted to help him out.

As stated I'll be V/LA with tons of Father's Day stuff to do this weekend. Probably will be Monday til I can get a full read and catchup in. Luckily the thread is pretty short.

UNVOTE: Whoever I am voting

[MagnaofIllusion]

So back from V/LA …

I’ll be starting my read in earnest today but have kept a soft eye on the thread via phone since replacing in.

First issue that needs to be clearly stated (and this is mostly for the benefit of Qui and Math) –

Rule Number 1 of Mafia – in a closed set-up you do NOT lynch a claimed investigation role that is un-CCed Day 1. You just don’t. If the claim is countered? Sure it is possible. We will get more information (from Karnos’s potential claimed results, future interactions and Nightkills) to sort him.

Specifically on Karnos’s claim – Neopolitan is actually stronger than some other Non-Alignment Cop roles as it provides 100% clearance with Vanilla Town results. It isn’t as strong for catching scum outside of incorrect VT claims but vetting VTs is huge from a standpoint of putting scum in a bad position as to whether to choose to kill suspected Power-roles or kill VTs who are 100% clear. Any time you handcuff the scum in some way you are benefitting Town.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Reads as of page 5 –

One of Wingback or karnos is scum. No doubt in my mind. Possibly both. Both displayed what I call “Newbie Scum Awkward Entrance” syndrome by which I mean that newer players who are scum tend to over-explain themselves in RVS. Sick’s was obvious and Pers picked up on it – he self-contradicted in an effort to look casual. Mulitple people correctly picked up on karnos’s over-explanantion about why he was unvoting a RVS vote. I can link to a game GreyIce and I played together (he was scum) where I caught his Newb partner with his first post for showing NSAE syndrome if anyone is interested.

Chumba I can see as a very likely partner for Wingback due to the defense of Sick and his dance around “I wasn’t defending I was expressing an opinion”.

On the other side of that coin if Wingback is Town then Shardyhood’s entrance at 113 is pure scum who knows Sick wasn’t scum and wants to stake an early Town position. I agree with Pers’s observation that his post was devoid of actual content and looked very much like fake-hunting.

Kappy I want to lynch for several things – the way he tries to position RVS voting and so such as meaningless ( it isn’t, it is just as much of the game as every other portion) and the vote on Pers which could be a chainsaw if Wingback is scum. But this may be a playstyle issue I have with him. Need more input.

No other strong reads. Maybe a few preliminary Town gut but I need more content from them.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Reads as of page 10 –

Town read on Missy has solidified nicely. 143 and 146 are examples of Town oriented thinking.

Shadyhood has turned to a solid scum read. His earlier stance of scum in [Pers / Quib / Snork / Species / Saru] has lead to a vote-park on Pers and no indication of attempts to sort any of the other players. That line of thinking has just dropped. 230 I see as laying the groundwork to vote Kappy who happened to be a trendy wagon at that sage.

Chumba’s still a viable scum-read. Parking his vote on Kappy for the reasons expressed in 173 is scummy as self-voting in RVS is not alignment indicative.

Saru I had some concerns with regarding his reads list at 214 but overall I get a Town feel from his interactions now that he has picked up the pace of posting.

Kappy I am having serious trouble sorting. The mounting pressure on him with several poor reasons (Chumba has already been discussed, karnos’s hop looks opportunistic given karnos’s main focus on defense, Mecha’s reasoning and 233 I also find troubling) at a gut level looks like pressure on a Town player. On the other side I see him as not doing independent scum-hunting. 192 – posts in this area regarding karnos’s claimed meta seem to me as following along (sheeping Pers’s claim that it was scum meta and not looking at other games which karnos refuted with said other games).

Town reads – Masq / Saru
Scum read - Johnny, Buldge, karnos, Wingback

[MagnaofIllusion]

Reads as of page 20–

Dislike Pers’s 252. He calls out Saru for giving a L-2 warning as LAMIST but ignored Mecha as doing that exact same thing on the same page. Also troubling is the fact that it seems most driven by Saru voting him. Then we have 261 which my limited experience with Pers says is coming from Town – poor reasoning Town but Town. And then we get 341 which is so head-bangingly wrong I think it probably comes from Town Pers.

Wingback’s entrance is a step towards Town. Several of his reads synch nicely with my own (Masq / Johnny / karnos). Will need to see more in coming pages.

How has Shady not attracted more attention by this point? Seriously 323 is just him popping in to make non-alignment indicative comments about Mecha and continue to say Pers is scum with no development in reads anywhere else? Johnny’s replace in post is a huge bunch of mostly IIoA and buddying. Will be keeping an eye on how players react in the coming pages.

Mecha is falling into my active-scum reads. Posts like 331 illustrate why. As an example - Insinuating that Saru shouldn’t be voting Pers because he disagrees with Sick’s reasoning for Pers scum. Completely ignores the fact that disagreeing with a player’s analysis on why someone is scum means you read that player as Town. Players can have crap reasons for scum-reading someone and pointing that out even if you scum-read that same players is very Pro-Town. That is a very scummy insinuation. And once again Mecha posts a LAMIST style “L-2 warning” post.

Bulge’s replace in might shift me away from Chumba as scum if he continues to be proactive on Shadyhood as scum point from 342.

Karnos is probably scum. 359 is so chock full of contradictions (Species is being scum-read for not moving an RVS vote but karnos is Town reading Chumba when Chumba actively said he was going to do just that as an example) and lack of logical reads that I can’t see it coming from Town. I now see the frustration from Mathblade and Quib regarding not lynching karnos as very understandable. I find the fact that I am scum-reading the Shady slot and he specifically avoids any sort of read on it at all a good sign of partnership there.

Town – Masq / Saru
Maybe Town – Pers / Quib
Scum – Johnny / karnos / Bulge
Maybe Scum – Mecha / Wingback

[MagnaofIllusion]

Probably don't have to say this, but if Karnos claims, don't CC..

Ok interrupting my recap for a direct question -

Why exactly did you say this Quib?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Reads til my official replacement in (Page 24 / 594) –

And Wingback immediately reverses field on karnos. Since we know that scum have Daytalk this could be a signal that something got worked out in the Mafia QT. And also starts distancing from the Mizzy (Masq) Town read which I dislike. Was ready to push him back to the Scum read pool but 567 makes solid sense. An element I dislike is that he hasn’t moved his vote from Pers who he isn’t scum-reading to Johnny by this point.

Mathblade’s entrance seems reasonable, if misguided on “Wingback and karnos are partners” angle. Snork who was a non-factor moves to soft Town read.

karnos’s 586 points me right at Bulge and Johnny as the best places to investigate for possible partners. The subsequent flail at at Kappy pushes Kappy into Maybe Town for me.

Mecha is moved back to Null for his dogged insistence on karnos. Similar reasoning pushes Quib to Maybe Town.

Town – Masq / Saru / Quib
Maybe Town – Pers
Scum – Johnny / karnos / Bulge
Maybe Scum – Wingback

[MagnaofIllusion]

VOTE: Johnny

The fact that his wagon post ‘karnos claim’ fell completely apart with nothing resembling Town posting from Johnny is a sign that it was a good place for votes if you like lynching scum. Seriously look at the following –

I mean honestly the reason I wasn't talking when Karnos was the wagon is because I was fine with him getting lynched. I wasn't going to push it because I wasn't caught up, but I didn't really have a problem with it either. The reason I started posting more is actually because he claimed. I don't think we should lynch him today. Pretty sure I've said as much. I want to say I believe him for now because that's a weird claim to pull out of thin air, but I don't know him or his play well enough to full on townread him just yet.

Which of my games did you look at out of curiosity?

This smells very much of scum not wanting to actually apply pressure to a partner (never voting the wagon he supposedly agreed with) and hoping for a shift away without a claim. Once karnos claimed and enough pressure came off he feels the need to put some words down in thread. And this –

Ugh I'm so much better at townreads.

Persy fell off the earth when I got here. As the only non-Bulge player that knows me that makes me nervous.

I didn't like the bits of the Karnos case quibbley bolted on when I asked him about it upon replacing in.

That's all I got really. Won't be lynching Dire, Wingaling, Mech or Masq today.

1. Weak excuse why he’s never bothered to cast a vote since replacing in and doesn't in this post.
2. Assertion that he might suspect Pers but written in a way that allows him to distance from that as a scum read in a heartbeat.
3. Another soft maybe scum-read on Quib as with 2.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Mecha

- why are you voting on the same wagon with karnos?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Because I felt very strong that Karnos was strong and I thought a lynch could happen without a town PR getting outed. Looking back, it seems I was wrong. I thought Karnos was going to fake claim, because of the "whatever lynch me" to the "I'm a PR" transition. Well, looking back he claimed PR after my post. Maybe I was wrong, but saying it didn't seem like it could do much harm.

Yeah - the most Town thing a PR can do is counter-claim scum. People get hung up on a Cop not counter-claiming but forget that a Town Cop counterclaiming a scum Cop is the exact same thing as said Town Cop getting a guilty overnight. With the added possibility of a Town protective role meaning said Town Cop isn't a necessarily dead overnight and is confirmed Town.

Here is a quote from Scum in a recently completed Open game I was in -

No, no town would be dumb enough to CC you in this circumstance when you're likely fishing for the real doctor if you're scum.

I'm asking BTW.

Here's the original link to read if you want - http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=65953

Summary - this was an open set-up with only two PRs - a Jailkeeper and a Doctor both for Town. That post by Titus occured after a very scummy looking player had claimed Doctor Day 5. Said Doctor had hard defended the Day 4 scum slot lynch Days 2-3 and was jailed on the Night afterwards. And had claimed to not action Nights 1,2 and 4.

Scum was pressing hard for said player to be lynched without a counter-claim because it was they were obviously trying to draw out the 'real Doctor'. Suffice it to say even though the Doctor was my number 1 scum-read I was not going to lynch them without a counter-claim. And that was Day 5 with much less room to work with as opposed to Day 1 here.

The reason you don't lynch without a counter-claim is that, even if you are 99% sure you are right, the downside to Town if everyone is wrong is devastating to Town's chances. There are always additional chances to re-assess Day 2 or down the line with more information.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Magna: Can you elaborate a bit on your Saru town read?

I was town reading him somewhere in the middle, but I'm doubting that read again. His voting pattern looks really quite bad imo. He has jumped on three wagons that were already formed: sick, persivul, kappy. Then he calls out Karnos for being scummy, but doesn't vote.

In my read-through I found his posts to resonate with me as coming from a Town perspective. I've already addressed 214 but read and look at that yourself. Setting aside whether you agree with all the conclusions the fact that there is a follow-able train of thought in his posting that I think shows actual Town intent to solve the game. He's also "casting a wide net" as it were - he's interacting with many different slots. That to me is a sign of Town.

How are you judging a voting pattern with no flips again? I ask because of those three I can certainly see his reasoning for voting sick and I can understand why he voted Pers (although I disagree with him on that vote).

Personally I find Johnny's slot's voting pattern (or better put lack thereof) to be much more indicative of scum. What do you think of Johnny?

[MagnaofIllusion]

His predecessor was very close to the top of my scum list. It felt very much over the top, trying to present some kind of confident image. I think his wall looked alright when I read it. Could read it again to see if I find something fishy. His semi-attack on me about the misinterpretations did feel a bit like shade casting, but I'm of course a little biased. The sitting back while the Karnos wagon is building also seems rather scummy, especially considering he asks why Karnos isn't lynched yet in his read up. The reason I'm a little hesitant is the "I'm busy" part. I could see the lack of voting and general apathy result from just not being really engaged in the game. I feel like I don't have a clear grasp on the slot yet, though to be honest I don't feel very strong on anyone besides Karnos really.

Yeah I would ask you to read that post again with a critical eye. Notice there is lots of language that looks like he is assessing scum but really doesn't build to any conclusion.

As for the "I'm busy" angle - why should he not be engaged with the game? He replaced in of his own volition. He know the length of re-read (which by the way is small since I did it basically today FYI). Giving him a pass for not being engaged is a poor choice IMO.

[MagnaofIllusion]

If we're giving him a pass due to the claim, what should we expect in return? Should we collectively determine the target? Let him choose? If we let him choose, does he give VT results only, or all results?

I haven't thought it all through, but we should. If he's scum, whether neapolitan or not, we can use results against him.

It comes down to whether you think directing will be more useful if it prevents us from getting reads based on his "choices". Because the second we collectively say "You must investigate Player X or you get lynched tomorrow" then we are never getting any sort of read on him based on role mechanics.

Is it better to decide who we want potentially VT cleared out of scum suspects? Is it even viable to get enough players on board and agreeing to a secondary target? Do we want scum (if karnos is Town which I doubt) to have the clear information about how best to thwart the plan?

I lean to making him investigate on his own, confirming with the claimed target whether his information is good, and lynching him if we catch him in a lie or other information rises that throws doubt on his claimed investigation.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I disagree pretty hard with this. Karnos is a claimed weird cop, and I don't think "newbie scum" would pull that out of his ass. If Wingback were newbie scum he'd still be at my throat, not continuing to pressure others. They've both got pretty strong d1 townreads.

And this response is pretty compelling evidence that Johnny isn’t actually trying to sort players. There is no universal “How Newbies Play” guidebook as he is floating here. New players, like veteran players, play in whatever manner is their natural playstyle. Some players are naturally aggressive. Some players are not.

Pretending there is some easy flip chart to solve the play of any player with less than 1 year experience is scummy.

Because if I was so convinced he's scum I'd refuse to vote a scumread because of it, I'd be voting him right now.

You seems pretty convinced that karnos was scum pre-claim. Did the claim completely change your read? If not I do not believe for an instant that Pro-Town Mecha sees scum read karnos hop onto Math and thinks “Whelp karnos I think is scum and but due to his claim he’s likely not getting lynched. So I’m going to follow right along on the next wagon he hops on.”

Do you think karnos is bussing Math and vice-versa?

@MagnaofIllusion:
Suppose you knew that karnos was town; how would this affect your read on Johnny?
You've stated that you think the reason Johnny's wagon fell apart is that there were scum on it; are you willing to say who you think they are?

If I had a crystal ball and knew karnos was Town it would not greatly affect my Johnny as scum read. The link to karnos is only the decorative icing on the cake as it were. Shadyhood’s attack on the Sick slot was scummy (as I said in my recaps – did you read them?). Johnny’s posting has not been Town oriented. His large catch-up was filled with mostly IIoA and buddying. He’s only been engaged in the game when he comes under fire. No real attempt on his part to sort players into who might be scum.

And you are incorrect – I think Johnny’s wagon fell apart because he’s scum not because there was scum on it.

Here is the vote-count from 600 –

Official Vote Count

karnos

(5): qubixes, MechaGoomba, Persivul, Kappy, Dierfire

Wingback

(3): Mathblade, MagnaofIllusion, The Bulge

MechaGoomba

(1): karnos

Mathblade

(1): Wingback

Kappy

(1): Saru

Not Voting

(2): Masquerade, JohnnyFarrar

karnos gets put at L-1 and subsequently claims at 644.

Johnny picks up votes from Masq 657, Pers 658, yourself 659, and Wingback 673. That is 4 votes in 16 posts.

Johnny responds with some AtE (I’m just here playing the game poorly, oh woe is me) at 678.

Masq moves to Quib for not moving from karnos at 684 but moves back 692.

You move off to vote Math at 716 with a caveat that you think it might be a playstyle issue and leave the door open to return.

Masq moves to Math at 727 with some weak meta-based arguments.

So Johnny acquired 4 votes for reasons that hold up well to looking for scum intent in play. Yet the wagon dropped back to 2 votes with no strong opinions of Town oriented play from Johnny. And until I came into the thread no-one seemed willing to look further at him. Of those four votes one is a strong Town-read (Masq), another is a Maybe Town read (Pers), you are Null and Wingback is my weakest scum read (who I don’t think can be scum with Johnny based on the Shadyhood push). So I’m not seeing a wagon I think is likely scum driven. Yet it didn’t get legs. Given what has been presented against Johnny I don’t think scum stays away from that wagon as I am seeing if he is Town.

He has no reason to out a "Not VT" result unless they claim VT, and even if he outs every VT result the scum will still have to choose between killing PRs and conftown.

No he should out any result. If he is scum then scum is already going to know what he knows. Having him pro-actively have to produce a result that can be vetted / contradicted is important to being able to sort him accurately more quickly.

[MagnaofIllusion]

This does not benefit town in any way for this specific PR. If Karnos is scum and targets a scummy player and then Karnos flips scum, we in essence gain nothing except to put any players that Karnos claims were VT under a microscope. However if Karnos flips town then we'd know that those people were townfirms. I would advise caution if we aren't going to do the smart thing and lynch them.

See this is the sort of argument that I’m not sure comes from someone actually assessing the situation.

1. Making karnos claim his results leaves him open to being caught in a lie (someone counter-claiming his result as inaccurate). This covers both the case that he isn’t actually a Neopolitan or that he is scum and tries to fudge his results.
2. Making karnos claim also leaves him open to being busted by other roles (like Watcher / Tracker / Rolestopper / Jailkeeper / Etc).
3. Of course you take a claim by karnos with a grain of salt until he flips Town. That’s common sense 101. However lynching him and being wrong is absolutely worse than lynching another scum player Day 1 and karnos getting killed at Night as Town.

Low and behold what do we have here. Masquerade was actually the first person to drop a vote on Johnny but because of when GreyICE did vote counts it looks like Persival. Then when the wagon starts to pick up steam Masquerade votes me. They also do not explain why they are voting me either or try to explain why they are voting me. Instead it is what they "want". This looks like trying to split the bridges more so than any case they can provide. If they thought Johnny was scum but I was scummiest I would have expected them to at least explain a reason of some kind as to why me over Johnny. This would get people to look more closely at me and try to analyze me, which is what you want people to do to your top scum read. To help gain understanding of if you are right or wrong and why.

Then for Dierfire there is that vote/Unvote/vote to Karnos. When Karnos claimed then Dierfire posted they would look at Johnny and Kappy. They posted one thing where they said they want Johnny to place a vote but then votes Kappy with weak reasoning. I get sick vibes from that.

If we aren't lynching Karnos today, I would pick Dierfire.

VOTE: Dierfire

This whole post I find really questionable. You specifically went looking for the scum who “moved the wagon off of karnos” despite the fact the karnos’s claim moved the wagon off himself. And you devote a large paragraph to showing why you suspect Masq for both voting for Johnny and not properly explaining his vote for you. The Dierfire analysis is exactly the opposite – there is little in the way of explanation of scummy play and in fact Dier didn’t vote Johnny. But you vote Dier instead for voting away from your gut Town read onto another player instead. This vote does not make any sense in context of your posts hunting scum pushing the Johnny wagon.

Why did you not vote Masq in that spot?

Why do you think Mathblade was misguided in calling me and Karnos partners when that seems to be your stance as well (or at least, that's what I'm gathering from the daytalk comments)?

I don’t think it makes any sense pre-claim for you to karnos to call him Town if you are partners. Scum you has little to gain pushing against the wagon when karnos had been very scummy to that point. It would only tie them neatly in a package to be lynched in succession if karnos flips scum. In fact that only way it makes sense at all is if you were a Goon and karnos is indeed a Neopolitan (or some other important PR) and even then that is only a delaying action. And you didn’t do it in a way that drew significant attention and votes to yourself.

Now if karnos is Town – your positioning makes sense as scum trying to position themselves for Town cred in the case that karnos is lynched. But in that case my Johnny read would require rethining given how strongly Shadyhood defended your slot early on.

I'm also not sure how Post 567 made solid sense from your perspective as you seem pro-Mathblade, anti-Wingback & Karnos.

It makes sense as a post I can see coming from Town. You express several concerns about Mathblade’s stances which I agree with – primarily that you don’t make sense as a karnos partner. The thoughts I have about your potential as a karnos partner are well reflected in the first paragraph. You also address Quib and defend your position on karnos in a pretty clear and cogent manner which reads as Town oriented to me.

Keep in mind – Town can be wrong. I think you wrong about karnos but your method of getting there at the end of the day appears well reasoned.

What do you think of my reasoning for townreading Karnos? Do you think it is implausible for a town player to townread Karnos? If Karnos were to flip town, how would that affect your reads on the people that attacked and defended Karnos and why?

You haven't said anything about Dierfire. What's your opinion on him?

As stated above – I think you are wrong. I think you are putting too much credence in very detailed explanation about how a single string of events only makes sense from Town when others have pointed out why they are at best NAI. But again – you being wrong doesn’t inherently mean you are scum.

That said if karnos is Town my opinion would absolutely change for the reasons I said in my prior section – Town you defending scum karnos is feasible. I don’t see scum you defending scum karnos. But I certainly could see scum you defending a Town karnos who was strongly under fire and a strong possibility for the day’s lynch.

You haven't said anything about Dierfire. What's your opinion on him?

Null. On my first read-through his impact was minimal. I didn’t see anything that stuck out to me as scum posting but I didn’t see thinks that looked Town either. Since I have several stronger candidates I haven’t felt the need to dig into his ISO at this stage.

What is your read on Dier?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Given the fact that I'm not currently voting for karnos, what do you think?

I think you should answer the question. This sort of dodge is not helpful. I think karnos is scum but I’m not voting for him because it is stupid to do so given his claim and the game-state.

You never said that and that never happened. Shady tunneled Persy, defended Sick.

Yes that is correct. I meant to type his defense of the Sick slot …

Point remains – Shady’s play surrounding that slot shows scum motivation.

Which involved people unvoting, so unless scum have some sort of magic make-people-unvote ray, those players would have to be scum for this to be Johnny's scumbuddies helping him out.
Either state a concrete opinion or quit doubtcasting. "I don't understand why this thing happened, therefore scum did it" is terrible reasoning.

Are you dense? Serious question. Johnny acquired 4 votes in a fairly short period of time after karnos’s claim. If Johnny is Town then there is little chance scum are just going to let that wagon fall by the wayside – especially if karnos is scum. Establishing a strong alternate wagon would be important given the pushes by Math and Quib to lynch karnos even with the claim. Yet the wagon which could have been propelled forward by scum instead was allowed to fizzle.

Do you not have the ability to develop an assessment from how events happen relative to a game-state? Your opinion that "scumz must doooos it derp" is pretty limited in scope and development.

If I was so convinced karnos was scum I based my entire plan around it I WOULD BE VOTING FOR HIM RIGHT NOW.

Wow you can type in all-caps. Very useful

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm afraid I'm starting to get biased from pre-associations.

Please elaborate if this has to do with my slot predecessor or other game.

Magna, it is already demonstrated that I do not subscribe to the game theory that you do. From my POV especially since scum have daychat this claim just feels wrong. Like all kinds of ewwwwwww. No one has provided a decent reason why Karnos is town. In a face to face Mafia game in Chicago there was a werewolf cop (Cheetory6) who claimed cop and no one CC'd and so everyone assumed he was town and then coasted to a victory. So yes. If I do not believe cop claims I want them lynched because they can and will fuck with you if you let them.

Well regardless of whether you ascribe to the theory or not if enough players do then not much is to be had by effectively throwing a temper tantrum over not getting your way.

Your anecdote doesn’t really sway me given it was up to you as a player to assess the claim in context. There are very few claims that shouldn’t be taken with a grain of salt even if you think said player is Town before the claim.

Second post let me stop you right there before you spew more nonsense. The Karnos claim is what contributed to this clusterfuck but that is what Dierfire's L-1 actions need investigating. They have not came online since my vote and I want an explanation. Do I think Masquerade is scum? Yes I do. At this point do I think they are more scummy than Dierfire? No. I want Dierfire to fucking explain.

How is my observations “nonsense”? I’ve read through your post trail starting at 774

1) Couldn't you have said that before I badgered you about it? The thing where you're as vague as you can possibly be until called on it is really annoying.
2) That statement assumes that a counterwagon would be needed. If karnos was town, mafia would be gleeful Math and Quib were trying to do their work for them. Given that you said your Johnny read is unaffected by whether or not karnos is scum, that doesn't really make sense.
3) This close to deadline, a fizzling wagon is a benefit for scum. If town ends up scrambling to not No Lynch, mafia can direct it as they please.
4) Insulting the intelligence of those that disagree with you is an easy way to ensure you'll never convince them to agree.

1. I’m not going to drill down to the most explanatory level on every post I make. People complain about my post lengths as it so conciseness is of a premium. So sorry, that’s just not happening. Mafia is a game of assessing intent and making intuitive leaps. My expectation is that others are capable of doing so or will ask. I don’t think my original post was all that vague personally.

2. First I am reading karnos as scum and your hypothetical question was about my read on Johnny which does not hinge at all on Johnny being a counter-wagon. That is your wording not mine. The case about Johnny’s wagon revolves around it not getting any traction when there is plenty of in thread evidence supporting Johnny-scum. So I’m not sure, given what I have already posted, why you have trouble seeing my Johnny scum case as not being heavily influenced by a hypothetical of karnos Town.

3. A No Lynch also benefits scum. And given scum are in the significant minority a flash wagon at deadline does stand a chance of hitting one of them. The extent of control are implying scum have is somewhat overstated. Also – why is a fizzling wagon on hypothetical Town a benefit to scum again?

4. Um I responded in kind to you basically stating I didn’t understand what was going on. Your reaction to being called out on poor reasoning is a little bit out of proportion I think. Given I did state a concrete opinion (Johnny’s wagon disappated too easily this close to deadline to be Town) and your basically tried to doubtcast yourself (“You didn’t understand why something happened so scum did it which is terrible”) I’m unsure why I wouldn’t question whether you were actually trying to process motivations and reasons.

[MagnaofIllusion]

PS: Magna, please make your posts just a bit more concise. As it stands, I can barely interact with your points because they're split up among 50 responses to various quotes.

What the fuck is this? You knock me for not explaining in detail about my Johnny wagon read and now you are asking me to be more concise?

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Masq

– You didn’t answer this the first time. Please do so in your next post.

I'm afraid I'm starting to get biased from pre-associations.

Please elaborate if this has to do with my slot predecessor or other games.

--

Too many the huge wall posts lately. Can't anyone write a concise short point anymore?

Can you give me a (concise) explanation why he can't be town?

Mafia is a forums game based on READING. Reading isn’t a hardship.

Frankly I was sick to death over this attitude my first go-round on MS and I’m not any less sick of it now.

I absolutely should be paranoid. Paranoia is an excellent thing. It is about when to apply that paranoia that you are disagreeing with. Yes the number of games where an unCC'd cop provided useful evidence is more than 1, but those unCC'd cops didn't crumb other roles and didn't do even a quarter of those things here. In the games where the cop was unCC'd and was scum (face to face games), we traded a townie for the sake of that information when we did it.

Now I'm going to ask you: Is your site theory worth potentially a different townie being lynched?

For me, I always evaluate the claim based upon how the rest of their play has been. If there is any shred of redeeming qualities I back off. However no one points to anything but the claim which infuriates me.

1. Where is said other crumb you are claiming as a basis for your paranoia?
2. Before you said the UnCCed cop cruised to victory which ostensibly means there were more Town lynched than just one. Why is it, in your theory, as now or never situation? That’s not the case at all.
3. The bolded looks like a slip to me – you specifically say talk about the risk of a “different Townie being lynched” when you are talking about lynching karnos? Ooops a little bit of unconscious knowledge came leaking out right there didn’ t it.

The second the Johnny wagon becomes less viable than Math’s I am moving there.

It almost feels like he is saying "karnos is scum but we can't lynch him due to the claim", setting things up to lynch me later,

JohnnyFarrar: I really don't see the scum read here, but maybe I'm being bias because he defended me to a degree. He can't keep using the "busy" excuse forever, especially as we approach the end of the game day.

So karnos – let’s talk about setting up positions to make it easy to justify later lynches and why this isn’t what you are doing with Johnny here …

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Mathblade so what did you think of Magna's (I think it was magna, I'll quote it when I have more time if you need me to) assessment of Johnny's meta?

Yeah I want to see this since I’ve said not word one about Johnny’s meta given this is the first game I’ve ever encountered him since my return.

Okay, lets be clear. I want to lynch mathblade, I think he is the most obvious scum.

However, I will vote Johnny if the need arises. This is a team game. While I like to think I have it all figured out, truthfully it's all a lot of guesswork and hunches. If the majority, including my main town reads, decide to lynch someone, I'll move my vote to help it happen. I'm not going to be stubborn and cause a no-lynch.

Well then – why again is it something you intimate to be scummy behavior for me to have a reason not to pursue your lynch today (your claim) but still scum reading you and potentially looking to lynch you in future days but when you take a similar stance it is reasonable Town play. Seems to me to be a case of Cognitive Dissonance …

[screams silently]
If Johnny is scum, you just gave scum the perfect signal to start subtly piling onto Math in hopes of flipping the votes of people like you.
If Math is scum, you gave scum the perfect signal that they need to end the day before the leading wagon switches.

I’ll set aside the fact that your ‘frustration’ here looks very, very fake given every downside you are expressing here can easily be read in thread and used to scum-hunt …

Why are you certain they aren’t partners in which case either wagon is a good vote position? If your answer is “My reads” well congrats but I disagree with just ruling them out as partners out-of-hand. Neither is willing to vote the opposite number which doesn't make sense for a Scum / Town dynamic. The scum in that dynamic would defect. Is it possible it is Town / Town? Yeh, possible. Also Scum / Scum is possible.

If you think Johnny is scum, why are you saying this? Do you expect scum!karnos to lay prior justification for a bus of a teammate that's obviously getting lynched?
If you think Johnny is town, why are you voting him? The Math wagon isn't that far behind -- a lot of the players voting Johnny scumread Math to a lesser extent.

Again – you apparently don’t understand the process of scum-hunting. Despite the fact that I am reading karnos as scum there is a possibility I am wrong. Part of the game is constantly looking to re-assess your reads. That is the point of my question to karnos which you just pre-empted in at best a very Anti-Town fashion.

See prior post for the vengeful crumb.
Now or never is a blatant misrep. As I said, most of the times if you don't lynch the person who comes under pressure and go into a D1 lynch, we're more than likely going to end up lynching a townie d1. Not only are the majority of lynches on d1 town, but add in the fact of pressure for time after forcing someone to claim, it adds to the difficulty of lynching scum.
Also any time you wish to start scum hunting would be good instead of fabricating scum slips where none exist. I was making a point about lynching someone who could be town instead of your scum read is stupid. I am town. However that is a claim I have to prove to everyone through my posts.

I can’t find whatever Vengeful crumb you are alluding to in your prior posts. Just directly quote it.

The part about “Now or Never” is a paragraph full of fluff. You are suggesting that the game-state indicates karnos if not lynched to day will just skate to the end if he’s scum. That doesn’t at all reflect the reality of where the game. Multiple players (myself included) have specifically stated we will be continuing to look at his play and claimed actions to further assess whether he should be lynched in future days. Yet you keep pointing to annecdotatal evidence that doesn’t match the reality of the gamestate and looks very much like a scummy way to stick to your stance that you dug in on.

The last part – um, no. What you wrote here doesn’t track with what you actually wrote there.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Dude shut up and lynch me. I want to see you try to blame it on me being bad as a player when you're really just confbiasing out your ass.

This is a straight up Appeal To Fear - "Lynch me and you are going to look terrible".

[MagnaofIllusion]

Furthermore since it is established you aren't actually reading my posts. It clearly follows that the rest of your response is clear misrepresentation/frame up. It feels like you are trying to do the same thing to Mecha.

In fact your entire last post is nothing but shade. You gonna ask questions of people to determine their alignment? Or do you just want to admit you're scum?

This is the response I expect from scum. Call everything you can a misrepresentation to attempt to sideline the fact that your play is scummy.

And "throwing shade"? Lol. I pointed out that post by Johnny which shows a classic Appeal to Fear in an attempt to get Mecha to back off him. That's not throwing shade that's scum-hunting. I know you have a hard time understanding that due to your Role PM being scum and all ....

[MagnaofIllusion]

Why can't you just quote the crumb Math? It should be simple.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Already did. Determined not to read aren't you?

VOTE: MagnaOfIllusions

I read that. You are seriously floating 510 as the basis for your claimed Vengeful crumb? I thought, perhaps, that you had something that actually resembled a crumb that you were basing his "shifting claims" on. That's not a crumb in any way, shape or form.

Nice OMGUS by the way ... very flailing of you!

[MagnaofIllusion]

People.
We have a single day left. Replacements will not cause an extension; we had something like 5 replacements and deadline only got extended 2 days. 1 replacement won't make a difference to the deadline.
Right now, we've got a couple of players that are getting into giant wall vs. wall slapfights that do nothing to convince anyone of anything. These people need to recalibrate their priorities, because right now they're playing to look smart at the expense of actually helping town.
We then have the players who up to now have been productive, who have good ideas, but aren't posting, quite possibly because of the impenetrable walls.

If the day continues as it has been going, there is almost certainly going to be a no lynch.
Even if a lynch does materialize, I have no confidence it will hit scum. I think Johnny is the most likely to be scum, but I'm not super confident that he is.
If day 2 ends up going down this same road of arrogant posturing and meaningless back-and-forth, we might as well call the game for scum there.

Please try to make this a game where it's worth trying to scumhunt. Don't force people to enter the wall wars if they want to be heard.

Who is the scum we are overlooking then? You don’t think karnos is scum … that much I have taken from our back and forth. I’m having a hard time seeing how posts like this are any more helpful than anything else. Who should we be after then?

Please go and worry about getting a lynch at all today, it's obvious that I'm not able to get a wagon going on you.

Do you intend to sit your vote on someone you don’t think is going to get lynched this close to deadline? I understand you feel passionately about a Math lynch but I don't think it is viable even with my vote there in spirit.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be V/LA from today at 5pm EDT til Monday morning for my usual weekend family duties.

I’m actually glad for the extended Twilight. I think regardless of what alignment Johnny flips it will be helpful in sorting players,

I don't like MoI's overreliance on pre-flip associatives and conditional reads i.e. Karnos is scum but if he's town, then I'm scum, as well as me and Johnny not being partnered together etc.

Aside from the fact that I implicate you as possible scum given interactions what specifically don’t you like about them? There is absolutely nothing wrong with looking at reads in context of other reads and looking to establish possible pairing or ruling said pairings out.

What do you think of all the players making pre-flip associations related to Johnny? Do you like Quib’s at 898?

And why are you doing it yourself at 913 if you don’t like it from me?

Why do you think that's more likely than me being town correctly reading Karnos as town (at that time)?

Scum have a much easier time reading players under heavy fire as Town. Heck, they have an easier time reading Town players as scum even if they aren’t under-fire. Because they know that the push on them isn’t valid.

The way you cleared karnos doesn’t feel that strong to me. Thus my suspicion that if he is Town you stand a good chance of being scum White Knighting him when things were bleak. If he ends up getting lynched you could grasp for CRC (Correct Read Credit). If he escapes the lynch it is an effective tool for buddying up.

@Mecha

–

How do you go from this –

Not a great hammer, but an understandable one ... if it is a hammer. The vote counter can do really strange stuff.

To this –

Masq's hammer was, as stated, all kinds of bad, and I wouldn't bat an eye if they got lynched over it.

In nine whopping posts? Especially since the tone of analysis is vastly different …

[MagnaofIllusion]

I’m whelmed by karnos’s results.

@karnos

– please elaborate on why you chose Pers as your claimed target because re-reading you ISO I’m not seeing much to leads me to think that choice makes sense.

Reading back through end of Day I really don’t like either Math or Quib’s reaction to the hammer pre-flip. And wanted to highlight the following Wingback post –

@Mathblade, why would a hypothetical scum-Masquerade quickhammer Johnny if all the other lynch options (Dierfire, Mathblade) are town? You say Dierfire is a bad pick and I'm assuming you think you are town.

Masquerade's hammer makes the most sense if he's scum with one of Mathblade or Dierfire, and Johnny is town. I'm guessing he saw the case on Dierfire and qubixes agreeing and panicked at the possibility of a last minute switch. I don't buy for a second that there would be "apathy and no flip" when there are more than two days left to deadline. Also think if Masquerade was town, he'd at least give Johnny time to claim after hammer intent was stated. There was a four minute gap between his intent and hammer.

I need to thoroughly re-read Saru as well. In my notes I had him as town for his angry/genuine response to Persivul and his breakdown of Kappy's logic in Post 237. But his later posting has been a cause for concern.

That’s a pretty strong impression of the following as his parting thoughts.

@Firebringer

– why based on looking at Wing did you choose Dier for today’s vote?

A vote without reasons makes me suspect Dierfire might be being set up.

So who are your scum-reads again? Because I don’t recall you looking sideways at Chumba / Bulge / Firebringer yesterday when you were howling for karnos / Masq / my heads. But the only person who could be scum capitalizing on setting up Dier would be Firebringer and that doesn’t seem to fit your paradigm from Day 1. And you started the day voting Quib.

Well scum better be afraid because I do NK analysis. I do vote count analysis (differently than Titus). Did I not say Johnny was town? Did I not say that how that wagon formed by Masquerade and hammered by Masquerade was bad?

So despite Quib’s position of agreeing with you that the Johnny wagon was bad and Masq being the end-all-be-all of scum according to this you didn’t start the day voting him and instead voted Quib?

[MagnaofIllusion]

re: neapolitan, I wanted to pick a target that I thought actually had a decent chance of being a VT, and that also wasn't making a lot of noise. Someone like masquerade fit into the first qualifier, but I had my fear that he might be killed or jailed at night. I figured persivul had been keeping such a low profile lately that it was unlikely for him to be killed or jailed, and I thought there was at least a fair chance of him being a VT.

Why is someone being Jailed a part of this reasoning? Jailkeepers don’t prevent investigation roles from working on their targets. A Rolestopper? Sure that makes sense. But Jailkeeper doesn’t.

Whelmed. So you're neutral then?
I actually think Karnos' pick made sense..
What is your read on Qubixes?

Yes, it is neutral claim. As in completely NAI. He could be Town telling the truth about being blocked. He could be lying scum. His result should not adjust your read on his slot one iota. He’s still on the more likely than not scum as it stands.

But frankly the fact that you (and others) have chosen to pre-emptively espouse that you agree with his pick before he answers is annoying as hell. I’m trying to sort him outside the claim and this sort of interference is frustrating to no end. Why do you insist on doing that?

My Quib read going into Night 1 was Maybe Town. I think his explanation in 998 as to why his play surrounding the Johnny wagon doesn’t make a ton of sense as scum is pretty solid. I don’t understand his Saru push at all and frankly that portion of his posting today has looked scummy.

I agree with points 1 and 3, but I'm not entirely certain about 2. Killing the person conftowned by karnos might work once or twice, but a pattern would be pretty obvious, especially since we're not directing him in-thread.

Why exactly would killing a Confirmed VT after they had been made such in thread be suspicious? Scum pretty much have to do so or face being PoEd into oblivion.

[MagnaofIllusion]

For example I am willing to bet we are going to start seeing a major shift of doomed as fuck scum on the site claim some kind of investigative and role blocked because of "site meta".

Do you think doomed scum don’t claim Investigative roles looking to draw counter-claims already? Frankly this argument is pretty moronic when it is a very common practice.

1) No. It doesn't. You always vote a null read or a scum read never a town one.

Bad argument. Town can certainly be wrong about their Town reads. Happens all the damn time. Situationally voting a Town-read who is not Mod Confirmed in some way to prevent a No Lynch is Pro-Town play regardless of the result. Yet you are peddling that it should never be done.

...Are you really pressuring me because I had the balls to ask questions and try to read the slot that interacted. Reads evolve. I was suspecting Quibixes for the end of day shift as evidenced by the posts at the end of the day. I thought more pressure needed to be applied while the conversation was going. Then with Karnos's results coming out I wanted to call attention to what I think is absolute bullshit. If I claimed Flying Spaghetti Monster with the ability to wrap all scum in a post restriction that every post they must end with I am scum and said "OMG I am so important please jailkeep/roleblock/protect me" and then it would be suspicious if no one had such a post restriction. Replace Flying Spaghetti Monster with "Neopolitan" and post restriction with results.

I do not have enough votes for all of my scum reads. Therefore I poke and push and prod. I attempt to read people.

Of course reads evolve. Where did I say they didn’t? I asked you to express what your scum-reads were today. Instead of actually answering the question we get this mini rant about the FSM and other non-sensical points that doesn’t actually answer the question.

I’ve looked back on your posts today. You’ve had 36. The only ones that address Quib directly (aka in a scum-hunting manner) are 942, 954, 1069, and 1080. And a read over those posts doesn’t show someone digging into a potential scum read with probing questions. Those are light, cursory posts.

I encourage everyone to read Math’s Day 2 ISO and decide if you believe Math is “poking, pushing and prodding” Quib. I don’t see sign of scum-hunting there.

VOTE: Math

[MagnaofIllusion]

Frankly all this talk about some other site is stupid and needs to end. I don’t know what DLP is nor do I care.

I wasn't sure what "they" included there. I supported the Dierfire wagon, which Wingback just made a big case on. What's bad about that? And yeah I think your suggestion of bussing here is really weird, with basically no evidence to back it up. Other than that we interacted very little D1, which wasn't actually the case.

Why are you so focused today on Saru (other than he is pushing you) as opposed to Dier today then?

Looking back at Wingback, one thing that really bothers me is Magna's 986. He tries to cast doubt on Masquerade by reinterpreting Wingback's statements to be an attack on Masq, despite the fact that Wing was steadfastly defending Masq throughout day 1. Note that this is after Masq voted Magna using Wingback's death as his reasoning.

Do you disagree that the post I quoted was a good snapshot of Wing’s end of Day suspicions? Why are you specifying Masq when Math and Dier are also implicated in that post?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Was that what karnos did? Who do you think Math was talking about if not karnos?

No that is what Math is accusing Masq of doing – voting for a Townread. Are you not bothering to read for context?

929 to 954 is pressure on qubixes, but then Math goes back to tunneling karnos.
If you're really claiming Math is scum because they're not putting enough effort into scumhunting, then you need to address the question: "Why would scum!Math put so much effort into tunneling on someone that they know is never going to be lynched?"

Why would Town Math focus so much effort on tunneling on someone they know is never going to be lynched? What you are floating is NAI and you should know that.

Do not do the implication dance. Yes, you managed to be sufficiently vague that you could hypothetically claim you meant Math or Dier instead of Masq. No, I don't care. Technicalities are not a magic shield against criticism.
You're defending yourself, so clearly you realized I was pushing you as scum. Yet you don't actually seem to care about the main point; you're only picking at details.
You're not saying "No I'm not scum", you're saying "you can't prove I'm scum." And the way you're saying it is not "I'm disproving your fallacious argument" but "wasn't I careful enough? Didn't I leave wiggle room?"
VOTE: MagnaofIllusion

Why can’t you answer a question? This sort of response is exactly the kind of response I would expect from scum … dodging asking with over-explanation.

Wing’s end of Day suspicions were Masq, Math and Dier. This isn’t hard to figure out. Yet you have latched on it only being a focus on Masq. Actually the timing of this response is interesting – you vote me right after I return to my wagon on Math.

Math flips scum and you are next in line.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I am totally willing to vote magna for just voting one of my strongest town reads (math)

If Mathblade is scum as I am reading her then Firebringer is most likely Town. He has a history of buddying up to scum as Town and voting Town when they are pushing his friends (who happen to be scum).

Pers slot, mecha, math?

Any objections to that scumteam?

I like two of those three (Math and Mecha). Pers would require him to decide to bus Math when other wagons (like mine) were around and viable. I'm not so sure on that one. You know Math better than me …

Town reads are {Mecha, Saru, Persivul}

Would she put both her partners in her Town reads like that?

Math tunnels karnos = Math focuses on karnos over other players = Math does not focus on non-karnos players = Math does not focus on qubixes = Math doesn't devote a lot of time to pushing qubixes
You scumread Math for not pushing qubixes enough = You scumread Math for tunneling karnos = You scumread Math for something you admit is NAI

Explain, please.

Explain what? Whatever it is you posted above isn’t a reflection on the actual motivations for my scum-read on Math. You seem pretty dead set on defending Math.

Apart from everything else wrong with a me-Math scumteam, if I was scum with Math, there would have been endless scum-PT arguments about karnos, eventually leading to either one of us replacing out, one of us bussing the other, or karnos being NKed. None of those things have happened.

What else is there about you and Math that rules out partners again? I read through your ISO. Early on you were happy to buddy up to Math when you were both scum reading karnos. You vote Math at 716 apparently because Math was continuing to push on karnos. Ostensiblly this means you are scum-reading them, even if only to a small degree. This is the second vote on Math.

You ask Math some questions that look very softball at 725 and 736 with no sign of significant followup. As of 752 Mathblade and Johnny are ties with 3 votes apiece. You hop to Johnny at 769 with not a mention of your read of Math. After this you have some interactions with Math that mostly surround theory on how to handle karnos.

Then we get 816 –

[screams silently]
If Johnny is scum, you just gave scum the perfect signal to start subtly piling onto Math in hopes of flipping the votes of people like you.
If Math is scum, you gave scum the perfect signal that they need to end the day before the leading wagon switches.

After the fact we know that Johnny was Town. Johnny gets hammered less than 100 posts later yet you haven’t even considered those implications in context of your own post. You still have Math as a strong Town read and seem more focused on defending her..

And look again – you stand strongly on the most viable counter-wagon to Mathblade up until the recent hop-off.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Masq, as far as the drama earlier don't worry about it. I thought your error was a bit telling, but apparently nobody else cares enough to even comment on it, perhaps I was overreacting. In the end, it's just a game.

Explain again how Masq forgetting the specifics about how a game ended is alignment indicative again?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Math’s attempt to undermine Titus while quasi-buddying her at 1172 should not be overlooked.

Because I have a stronger scum read on Saru. Also, I find him rather annoying as well. Didn't really feel like he was pushing me for real either, more like trying to piss me off.

I still don't really get the feeling that Mathblade is scum. I feel like they have been getting into fights with almost everyone at this point, and I don't really see how it furthers their scum agenda. That said, their push on me was kind of weird when they're apparently scumreading me for something I said before their catch-up in which they thought I was town...

I kind of want to make a case on Saru, but it might take some time, so don't wait for it I guess?

I’d suggest you get cracking on that case because having a generic scum-read isn’t very persuasive in general terms and the lack of actively pushing you read doesn’t give me the warm fuzzies.

Please remind me of your read on Math again ...

MAFIA
Kappy**
Saru
karnos***
MathBlade

Hmmph, not ruling our Dier. I really don't see why he gave up on me being scum given our last game.

Given you are Kappy I am wondering why you think he “gave up” on scum-reading your slot again.

In his 804/823 readwall, I find it rather strange that he states all of his townreads explicitly, with relatively little reasoning, but then Math and Johnny (who appear to be his two scumreads at the time) have lengthy complicated explanations that don't ever directly say "this person is scum and why".

Literally every bit of this post makes my scumdar ping like crazy. There is absolutely nothing wrong with giving more indepth reasoning on scum reads than on Town reads so floating it as something to suspect Dier for is suspect. I also disagree with the assessment that his scum reads are not explained in a manner that indicates why he thinks they are scum.

This is the second time you have ignored my posts Magna. Why are you so determined to paint me as scum yet you do not read my posts. When you do quote my posts you completely misrepresent them. You are experienced. I can tell. So why are you obviously lying about mechanics to Karnos?

No, I am not lying about mechanics to karnos and your attempt to say I am is more scum play on your part.

Here is what karnos said about his results –

I investigated persivul. No result. Either I got roleblocked, or persivul got jailed.

He claims to have investigated Pers and gotten no result. His conclusion is that either he was role-blocked or Pers was jailkept.

My response to that assertion after he clarified in 994 as to why he chose Pers –

Why is someone being Jailed a part of this reasoning? Jailkeepers don’t prevent investigation roles from working on their targets. A Rolestopper? Sure that makes sense. But Jailkeeper doesn’t.

Aside from alternate Jailkeeper builds (known as Aliens) Jailkeepers do not prevent any non-killing role from acting on the Jailkept player. So karnos’s assertion that Pers was Jailkept would not preclude him from getting a result on Pers.

For someone who was so loud about people not reading your posts either you specifically did not read mine or are attempting to misrepresent the conversation (another thing you have been loud about decrying).

Scummy.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Nope because it is a different hootspah...Stream of consciousness of you will. Your posts feel like they were edited before they were posted.

Phone post but this is a shitty and scummy discrediting attack. There is absolutely nothing Not Town about posting in a polished fashion.

Very very happy with my vote. More of the rest of you need to join me on this wagon on scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

And FYI I am obvtown and stop protecting Dierfire by attacking me.

LOL. The only obv thing you are is scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be V/LA from today at 5pm EDT until Tuesday morning for family and holiday activites.

Math is a great vote and needs more of them. That she’s can’t actually push people on facts and has reverted to just saying “Yo, youz Scumz” and “Imma baller Town” should reinforce this for people.

Mathblade and Mecha have priority for me rn. I'm still a bit bothered by how he responded when I said scum have daytalk, like he was testing the waters to see if anyone else wanted to wagon me for knowing that

Masq this is an absolute salient point.

Let me ask – what did you like about Mecha’s hammer reaction? Personally I think the way he shifted from “Understandable but unfortunate hammer” to “Lynch worthy bad hammer” in 9 posts was scum indicative. His response when I questioned him was basically “Um, I was waiting to see Masq motivations” which doesn’t hold up to me.

Is part of your Mecha read involved in him dropping his suspicion of you today?

So yesterday I read you as scum for trying to get a new wagon going when Johnny was wagoned, and when Johnny flipped town that kind of countered that theory.

So who do you think is in best position to call a wagon on Town bad? That’s classic scum 101 “Claw for Towncred on a Mislynch” play.

I've spent too long being unproductive.
VOTE: Dierfire

I think this is the launching point of Mecha attempting to generate a counter-wagon to his partner’s.

@Magna -- It isn't buddying. It is how I find Titus town. If I follow her immediately she is probably scum. It is just a thing. Otherwise I would be betraying my meta read of her.
And about the jail keepers fine MS has different meta. But why did you not respond then.
If ignoring posts without acknowledging ignoring is a thing I don't like that about MS meta.

Oh so buddying is yoru super sekrit read technique. Gotcha.

And the second part of this is scum to a tee. You called me out on lying, got smacked down hard with facts, and then go moving the goalposts attempting to keep your read by insinuating that my not responding is scummy.

Fact – I don’t make it a habit of answering most of my top scum-read’s questions to me. I don’t do busywork for scum.

You need rope BADLY …

More scummy points for begging for town read too.

VOTE: Dierfire

Scum seeing hope in a counter-wagon and grasping at it like a life preserver in the Ocean as their ship is going down.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hey thanks to the site crash and July 4th weekend I missed all the end of day.

I’ll be circling back to important stuff I missed but I want either Mathblade or Mechagoomba’s head today.

Start where I left off though –

VOTE: Mathblade

[MagnaofIllusion]

Sorry but not sorry about hammering. It was going to happen whether I did it or not, and I felt like I had to prove something about MathBlade.

What exactly did you hammering prove about Mathblade again?

[MagnaofIllusion]

The whole discussion around Dierfire being coached (which, once again was fodder for a mislynch from Math and Mecha) is scummy and I’m a little surprised nothing was made of it as it happened.

1279 is a literal mile-long stretch to justify voting for the counter-wagon to herself. It’s not unusual to expect someone to play in a surivavlist manner. It is scummy to find are reason that isn’t inherently scummy to justify said jump. And Math’s reaction to Masq’s vote at 1287 is suspect given the weakness of her own jump combined with the lack of un-voting.

Also everyone who is in doubt on Math needs to look at 1296. Very likely the reason Qub ended up dead.

I’d also like Math to address 1327 given Dier did in fact flip VT.

Right now because Masquerade and Dierfire are so likely scum together that forces Magna to be town by PoE but his posts are super shitty. Like Terribad.

Oh look Mecha – it is insults instead of reasons. But no vitriolic reaction from you here. Wonder why?

Sorry what?

I still keep getting the feeling Magna is manipulating me..

Given your predecessor was a strong Town read I’ve been trying to work with you. If you don’t want to hash things out with me … fine. I’ll stop looking to establish a dialogue.

Oh? Because maybe I misread, but I remember you saying the same thing when I was pushing you.
Tell me, honestly -- is there anyone besides MathBlade who you wouldn't consider a counterwagon? Don't even tell me who they are, just yes or no.

Wanted to revisit this because it is scummy from the standpoint of asking empty questions in an effort to appear like he is scum-hunting. Because the nature of the question is self-answering – of course I consider a wagon that forms (in this case, on Town) a counter-wagon. That’s like asking if I find water to be wet.

In fact 1242 actually reads pretty strongly as a chainsaw given that Mechagoomba cherry-picked single sentances from 1241 in an attempt to say I was not providing content just Ad Homenium. As an example this …

Oh so buddying is yoru super sekrit read technique. Gotcha.

And the second part of this is scum to a tee. You called me out on lying, got smacked down hard with facts, and then go moving the goalposts attempting to keep your read by insinuating that my not responding is scummy.

Fact – I don’t make it a habit of answering most of my top scum-read’s questions to me. I don’t do busywork for scum.

You need rope BADLY …

Gets magically cut down to this …

Oh so buddying is yoru super sekrit read technique. Gotcha.

In Mecha’s post.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Can't risk it.

VOTE: Dierfire

I hope this is a bus.

This is an atrocious hammer.

The majority of people hadn't responded yet from the site outage. WTF.

I have to go to work now but Karnos tomorrow people. He is probably bussing but if not that was opportunistic as fuck.

If people aren't power-lynching Mathblade after this post I don't know what to do.

This is the wagon that Math is on. One that she is claiming is on scum. Her reaction to a hammer pre-flip? This.

Why would scum karnos hammer a partner when people had yet to get back on site due to the outage? No reason at all for scum to quick-hammer a partner like that.

This is Mathblade knowing that it was a mislynch (that she and Mecha drove) and setting the stage for today.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MathBlade essentially blackmailed me into hammering. If I didn't hammer, and dierfire flipped scum, it's pretty obvious how MathBlade could turn that into a lynch on me the following day. In hindsight, knowing dierfire is town, I suspect scum MathBlade was just trying to push me to hammer a townie, but that can't be helped today.

So you are saying you hammered a Town player (I'm not clear on whether you actually suspected Dier or not) because you thought Mathblade was bussing and if you didn't hammer you'd be lynched today with a scum flip?

Why would Math push a counter-wagon to herself (scum in your scenario) on a partner?

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Saru

– since you are here and around could explain to me how you don’t see the Mecha links to Mathblade I am seeing? If you need I can run-down specific posts for you but in summary I think his reasons for Town reading Math are contrived (saying that she has terrible logic but is consistent logic as an example). Also -

The buddying is way too obvious and I feel, at this point in the game, scum would want to start distancing themselves from one another

Why do you come to this conclusion? Given we have two mislynches and two kills so far scum has less incentive, in my mind, to distance. There are 9 players left alive. Assuming 3 scum (which is the strongest logical set-up with the information we have so far) a mislynch and successful Nightkill puts the game in LYLO tomorrow.

In fact this theory seems to directly undercut your Titus – Math theory as Titus is treating Math very clearly as bad Town.

@Dwlee

– Who is scum? You aren’t going to be allowed to float through this game like you were in Shos’s game.

OK you're going to need to clarify this because the only way I can read it is that every wagon on town is lead by scum and everyone that is voted but not lynched must be scum, which is stupid.

Well I can’t speak to your ability to parse nuanced thoughts but clearly this is an oversimplification.

Math is scum who was under significant fire via votes and suspicion. Suddenly a Dierfire counter-wagon appears for frankly pretty spurious reasons. And gets pushed to lynch flipping Town. The manner in which you seem to suggest that it is absurd that this is a possibility speaks to why I think you are scum – you are attempting with oversimplified generalities to suggest my suspicion and conclusions are not valid.

Nobody is going to pay you for a gold ingot you've shit on. Because yes, there is gold there, gold is worth something, but it is your fucking responsibility to clean off the shit.
I can barely muster the willpower to read your posts because I know for a fact there are so many things I could do that would bring me more enjoyment. The primary reason I haven't replaced out is that I'm convinced the players who aren't you are much more critical to the town's success.

Nope. You don’t get to frame this in that manner. I just caught you selectively framing small snippets of my posting in a manner to suggest that I had no content. But there was plenty of content there. You just cropped it in a manner to discredit in a way that is scummy. And now are lobbing some vague allusion to explain your scummy play.

I'm trying to understand your viewpoint here but it's not really making sense. You look at the way Math's posting, determine it to be scummy. Then, when you read further, you start to get a gut feeling, or something along those lines, that makes you doubt your read? So then you go after me, who you had as a scumread because you thought I made sense as scum with Math.
But then, why not go for Dwlee? You thought originally "Math's scum, so Mecha's probably scum with Math." But "Mecha's scum with Math" depends on "Math's scum." You have no reason to be more sure about me than you are about Math.

This literally is a scum-claim. “I don’t understand … you can’t suspect me … why aren’t you going for Dwlee instead?”.

@Titus

– do you not think this looks like Mecha wanting to shift attention to Dwlee?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Crap ... Titus might be correct on Dwlee ...

Because face-palming a "bad hammer" after he stated intent to hammer a mere 3 posts earlier is not Town.

With regard to the point that I've been pushing, I did dig up a similarly indirect attack with similar wording (underlined) from karnos in a game that he played as Town.

The way you are jumping at his defense

is rather interesting

, given that Ranger was under the same number of lynch votes and you certainly didn't jump out at the person who put her at -2 L. My understanding is that this game doesn't have Masons. There is no way you could know transcend is innocent, yet you are acting as if you are positive he is.

Very odd

.

I still think that this is slightly different from his 382 in this game, and I'm not inclined to give a pass to the behavior, because it feels most like the point is to turn aside criticism by threatening a confrontation (his 396 certainly makes it clear that he thinks it unlikely that MechaGoomba actually revealed knowledge of how many Mafia players we have).

A quick (and admittedly somewhat rushed) read through the games mentioned earlier leaves me believing the argument advanced by qubixes in 372 that karnos is playing this game more carefully and cautiously than those earlier games (in which he was Town). In a few instances (such as his comfort with chasing wagons to L-1 in the game referenced above), this might be a matter of learning, but even then he seems to have taken an odd lesson from it in 56 (someone mentioned this already, but the point is that it's strange for him to be worried about being implicated if someone else drove a quick lynch and he happened to be on the wagon).

I agree with qubixes in 546 and disagree with Masquerade in 542--I can think of reasons why a Mafia player would want to hear more discussion (to buy time to turn the lynch somewhere else, to allow partners to plan night actions) or at least to claim to want to hear more discussion (to appear proactive and therefore Town).

UNVOTE: Kappy
VOTE: karnos

UNVOTE: karnos

I've changed my mind; we still have many players catching up, and I don't feel that I have a good handle on what's going on in the last few pages. I'm not ready for claims/lynches at this point.

Expect my return within 24 hours.

I'm still not entirely certain what's going on here, but I think that I know enough.

VOTE: karnos

THIS IS L-1 (AGAIN) FOR KARNOS

UNVOTE: karnos

He could be lying, and he certainly could be a Mafia Neapolitan, but now that he's locked into a claim we'll have more information to judge his alignment as the game continues (in addition to his results, we can also judge whether Neapolitan is more likely to be Town or Mafia if we see some other Town/Mafia roles flip, or after mass claim).

I'll look at JohnnyFarrar next, and Kappy is still on my list of suspicious characters.

intent to hammer

the karnos dierfire associative tells are real af

I think you might actually be town from how stupid that was.
God two bad hammers in a row. Dank maymay

[MagnaofIllusion]

UNVOTE: Mathblade

I went back and looked and she got to L-1 in under 24 hours from my initial post. That's damn fast and given that one of the votes was someone who said they didn't want a quicklynch I'm unvoting to slow down a bit.

Specifically I want to hear from Dwlee (and for that matter Firebringer).

[MagnaofIllusion]

I agree with lynching cop day before lylo

VOTE: Dwlee

That's not who you think is scum. Vote for motivation ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Saru

– I’ve read and digested your response on Mecha. My reaction is – meh. In understand where you are coming from but think your stance relies on elements that don’t always hold true like scum always playing optimally when that isn’t necessarily the case. Also I think you undercut your own arguments with lines like this –

Sure, if one scum-buddy was dead at this point, I can see why scum!Mecha would want to defend scum!Math so hard. But that's not the case. Right now, the scum have the advantage. Why would they throw that out?

You are answering your own question – scum have “the advantage” and not losing a member is the number 1 way to maintain that position. As it stands your position is that scum would distance from each other and risk losing a member (while being obvious about said distancing which dooms the other members) not defending to prevent losing a member (while being obvious about said defending which dooms the other members). One of these paths makes it easier to lynch scum today and one doesn’t and I’m not sure why you lean towards the option that makes it easier for Town overall.

The only hiccup is if my Math read has been wrong and she’s just a terrible player who spams the thread with Ad Homenium as Town. In that case I’m avoiding her like the plague going forward.

Also, why do you think Magna is scum?

The answer is OMGUS Saru.

Firebringer replaced Chumba’s slot. He’s probably scum. Re-reading the game reminded me how scummy Chumba’s Day 1 park of his vote for bad reasons was. The subsequent lack of content from both replacements let them fade into the background ...

Apparently I am in everyones scum list now.

WOOT!!!

I am going to LYLO guys!

This needs rope.

What do you want to hear from me about?
I think Titus is town, and I am unsure about almost everyone else.

And this is why.

Also 1467 is trying way too hard to present himself as “uniformed Townie” when he is WAY too experienced to not understand where the game stands. This is a Mini with no indication of multiple kills. 9 players alive is NEVER LYLO.

--

Go read my 1419 and look at what Mecha chooses to address in 1423. Note that I’m supposedly a scum-read for him. Yet he absolutely drops the points about his “CounterWagon” argument and his selective quoting being scummy hoping that I will just let them go.

I hope you will understand I am on vacation right now and mafia isn't my first priority, I am around to talk to people in my games but going through and rereading the thread and trying to make connections to things isn't for me this week (don't like rereading anyway cause I don't really get much out of it but oh well).
My thoughts on the game rn are mainly math blade town. I feel that their frustration to the pushes on them is a town frustration. Titus can't read me like always so she could be doing that or be trying to mislynch me. In regards to (magna?) saying my callout of the hammer was bad, the hammer was bad because it was random when we still had some time for me to talk more (I declared intent but was planning on waiting at least a day) and their reasons for it seemed kind of bad. I think if the hammer was scum that means Titus is scum because I remember very clearly in cyberpunk where Titus wanted me to derp hammer diamondsentinel with a sheep vote so I can see her directing that her as well. The uncounterclaimed investigative is interesting, mass claim might be good since we are well in the game at this point. That is where I'm at right now

So let’s see what we have here …

1. I’m on vacation and actually reading isn’t a priority – well if that is the case why did you replace or why didn’t you read before your vacation?
2. I don’t quite understand your logic of “you want more time to talk” given all your talking seems to this point seems to have resolved down to one Town read and maybe some scum reads that are all conditional and thus very useful.
3. Reading Math as Town for frustration is stupid. Sorry, it just is. Scum easily get frustrated especially if their mislynch pushes are ignored by Town and they are getting correctly called scum.

That’s pretty much not trying to solve the game which is what I expect to see from scum-Dwlee.

O just don't feel like putting in an effort anymore. When I do my reads are wrong. And Karnos confirmed me. So whatever. Just don't lynch me.

Ok I'd like to talk about Kapy just jumping on me when I knew about scum daychat and I also want to talk about Mecha acting awkward around it as if he was asking what others thought before he was jumping. I brought this up before. I want some serious responses. If you don;t believe I'm a vt you can lynch me or Karnos, otherwise start talking to me.

Stop throwing a temper tantrum then. Seriously it is 100% your job to be engaged in the game.

On that issue – Mecha is scummier than Kappy in my mind. Mecha’s play around that issue reads much like tentative probing to see what traction that angle would get which I expect to see from scum who knows there is daychat but doesn’t expect Town to (not reading the rules for context because they don’t have to as the informed minority). Kappy’s jump on it feels much more to me of Town taking the bait on that fishing expedietion.

I don't know, but why would Persivul replace out as scum? I kinda see his replace out as frustrated town that just doesn't want to deal anymore.

This is NAI . Scum Pers could have personal history with Titus (who he sited in his replace out) that renders him unwilling to push throught the game if Titus is Town. Likewise Town Pers could be frustrated but I have seen Pers in the past as Town not react in that manner. If you are Town-reading Pers for other points that’s fine but the replace out is NAI and should never be used to help you make a read.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Thanks for the game Grey!

So you know how people occasionally as scum get “caught for the wrong reasons” and lynched? I feel like this game I won for the wrong reasons. It’s really strange. Having a bonus death come from left field that sealed the game was a surreal experience. I saw that and my mind went … whut?

Math and I should not be scum partners. Frankly working with her is an exercise in frustration and I wasn’t nearly as active in the scum QT as I usually am because of it.

I’m impressed karnos survived after Day 1. Being under pressure and having no help for the majority of the Day is very stressful as scum. By the time I replaced in I figured I had to bus him. The fact that I was able to transition away from lynching him Day 2 without catching flack still surprises me.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I should do a full writeup of how people played.

I think this is a good exercise for learning from an impartial 3rd party and think it would be a good thing to do for every Mod.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I know .. it's like the only players who knew there were actually Masons in the set-up didn't tell everyone ...