Hi all!
Mini 280 - Game Over
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Fiasco Goon
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Fiasco Goon
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Fiasco Goon
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Fiasco Goon
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KingPin, not sure whether you're asking me or LML; mine was pretty much random, but what I meant was Lee's vote was the first random vote on me.
Don Gaetano, why restrict random votes to those who already have votes? Shouldn't it be called "random bandwagoning" then?"I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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It's true that discussing the setup may give the scum information, but it's also true that this information may help them to kill each other, which would be good, and it's also true that it may give the town information, which would also be good. You may have a point, or you may not. I'll admit that I didn't really consider the giving information to the scum part before asking the question; I have always had the habit of bleating out everything that comes to mind, and that's worked well, but then I've never played in the beginning of a non-newbie game.
I don't know; people can vote for any number of nonrandom reasons. Maybe you thought I was more likely than the others to want to nightkill those people that have been nightkilled. Maybe you're a scum picking a relatively new player as an easy scapegoat. Maybe you like typing my username. (OK, that would probably count as random.) I just thought I'd make sure not to say something false by adding the "if".Why *wouldn't* this vote be random, unless you're afraid you're scum already fingered by a cop?
Because I'd be dumb enough to give myself away in the first sentence of my first post, right?That little aside you threw in there makes be believe that you're scum.
FoS LoudmouthLeefor believing me to be scum on zero evidence.-
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Fiasco Goon
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Because I would make up a pointless lie in the first sentence of my first post, right? I've replaced someone twice, and in the two games I was in from the start, no one random-voted me.draygn_mage wrote:This *can't* be the first time he's been random voted here.
FoS: draygn_mage. If someone says something improbable, either check for yourself or ask for proof, rather than assume a gratuitous lie.-
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Fiasco Goon
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Fiasco Goon
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Fiasco Goon
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Since there's probably about four scum around, three votes already seems like a dangerous level if you guys are pro-town. If I'm lynched, you'd be left with about four scum and five town (both minus nightkills), which is already nearly unwinnable. This bandwagon is based on absolutely nothing, and you should unvote."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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You have a point, but do take into account that based on numbers, the scum are already pretty close to winning, so they can afford to take fairly big risks. I'm going tounvote, vote draygn_mage, because he's the only one so far caught in a knowable falsehood (of sorts)."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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Fiasco Goon
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Fiasco Goon
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Fiasco Goon
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If it helps, here's a bit of history. I wrote:
I originally wrote "(At least I'm assuming it was random)", and "(I'm assuming it was random)" before going with this version for brevity.Ooh, my first random vote! (Assuming it was random.)"I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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That's why I said "fairly big risks" rather than "arbitrarily big risks".Jaguar wrote:But a scum win is never guaranteed.
Unless they're in different scum teams (e.g. serial killer).and it would be very unwise for scum to all be on the same wagon.
I disagree with your assumption that people shouldn't post unless "necessary". We need to get as much information out there as possible. Participation good, lurking bad. Now that I've turned off my sig, I can't see double posts hurting, either. I think it would be good for the town if more of you played more like this.You are dominating the thread with some unnecessary posts (A couple of one-liners) and double posts. If this is your normal playing style, it is certainly not helping you any.
And yes, this is my normal playing style. If it's not helping the town, that's only because some in the town are silly enough to vote/accuse based on a non-harmful, slightly unconventional playing style. (When did that ever become a scum tell?)-
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Fiasco Goon
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Now that everyone knows that I know that everyone else considers defensive posting to be a scum tell, it's no longer a scum tell, so I can post defensively to my heart's content. Right?
Aelyn's post is interesting, because he's the only one alive with whom I've been in a game before; I had vaguely expected him to defend me, because my playing style (as town) was similar there. I didn't get accused much, but when I did, I always defended myself, I think.
He's correct that I've overstated the probability that, if a pro-townie is lynched, any individual scum group will win; I said they would be "pretty close" to the win, and while that's ambiguous, it's probably less than a 1 in 2 chance in reality. (When I wrote that, I had been thinking about whether or not we might already be in lynch or lose; if we lynch a pro-townie, the mafia nightkills the SK, and the SK nightkills a townie, we're very close to a loss but not quite there yet. This may explain some of the confusion in my mind. I've always considered a mafia + SK the main possibility and agree that my arguments are worse than they would be given four unified scum.)
I do still think that if we lynch wrong, the town is in very bad shape. In the other mini I've been in, the town lynched right the first three times but still lost. I also still think the three votes aren't without risk. One confused townie, one SK and one self-sacrificing mafia member would do the trick.
Aelyn seems to be saying the following is an argument independent of his other ones:
but I don't understand what he means here.which, incidentally, is invalid since the town's in exactly the same boat regarding everyone else
One last point. Whether you think posting a lot is good or bad, it would be irrational to data-mine the most scummy tell out of all posts. Instead, you should look more at the scum tell rate. Someone with two tells in four posts is scummier than someone with three tells in ten posts, assuming equally contentful/risky posts.
FoS Aelyn: 4th votes based on little are scummy. Instead of attacking me for addressing the arguments, you should be attacking people like LmL for not addressing the arguments, as would happen in any normal situation.
FoS Passdog: lurking.
(This will be my last post for the near future; in a day or two I'll probably write something about the main arguments against me, as well as about which of you I think are the scum. I have seven people against me now and it looks reasonably likely that I'll be lynched. We need to get as much information out of this as we can.)-
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Fiasco Goon
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Hmmm... eight out of eight people suspecting me now. Groupthink much?
Some miscellaneous comments; a more systematic game analysis post is still in the pipeline.
LoudmouthLee, I never believed there were four scum in one group -- that was a misinterpretation on Aelyn's part. It's very clear from the death scene that we don't have one unified scum group. There were two kills, one of them strongly suggesting a fundamentalist-christian SK and one of them strongly suggesting a mafia group. This makes your claim that I have inside information about a unified four-person scum group rather bizarre; your (possible) attempt to spread confusion about the game setup is noted.
Jaguar, Aelyn announced his intention to vote for me soon; apparently, he believes the evidence is sufficient for a fourth vote. That, to me, is suspicious.
On lurker-hunting: I agree with KingPin. Lurker-hunting is an essential part of pro-town strategy, if only for metagame reasons, and that LoudmouthLee is attacking KingPin for it does not make LoudmouthLee look good. I disagree with the vote on Jaguar, because of the post in V/LA and because she wasn't quiet for that long a time. (However, you can't tell from what the forum shows you that someone is on for just two seconds.) I agree with the vote on Passdog; we don't know that his lurking is unintentional, and it can't hurt."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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Fiasco Goon
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Since the bandwagon on me seems to have lost a lot of momentum, I will defend myself less and attack others more than I had planned.
First, some defense.
I can see how my behavior seemed defensive (he said defensively): I did respond a lot, sometimes a bit angrily, and I did overstate the danger in my bandwagon somewhat. Partly this is a matter of playing style: I tend to be overly active on a per-game basis, and I genuinely don't see the harm in making a quick comment, one-liner or not, whenever checking the thread. Partly it's because I was in an irritated mood then, due to what I perceived (and mostly still perceive) as a nonsense bandwagon on me, as well as due to other reasons. (Aelyn compared me to "a trapped mongoose, flurrying around in an attempt to escape but all the while just drawing more and more attention"; it felt more like being under attack by mosquitoes, frantically wielding a flyswatter.) Partly it's because the votes on me were piling up within hours; it looked more threatening then than it does in hindsight.
I feel that I've already responded adequately to the whole "assuming" fiasco, which is what all three votes against me were originally based on. I indicated incomplete certainty about something that I would be uncertain about as scum, and uncertain about as town, but slightly more uncertain about as scum than as town. That, IMHO, is a very weak tell at most, especially considering the WIFOM factor: if I were scum worrying about a guilty cop investigation, I would have no motive to make any mention of this.
Now for the attack. Who looks (un)scummy?
Don Gaetano:
I thought he looked scummy for FoSing me for a bad reason and then lurking; however, he claims the lurking was because of time constraints, and his low activity level means that he will be hard to judge. He also thinks I'm innocent now, which earns him Townie Points from my perspective (but maybe not yours). I'm not sure what to think of the Gaetano-vs-Jaguar argument.
LoudmouthLee:
An interesting case. He gets points for being an active and aggressive player, which is risky for scum. On the other hand, since he's supposed to be a Mafia God, I hold him to high standards. He mostly hasn't lived up to them in this game. He instigated the bandwagon because of the "assuming" thing that he didn't really defend later. Later he accused me of having info about a four-scum group, which is very improbable. He also argued against lurker hunts.
draygn_mage:
Still my favorite target. Jumped onto the bandwagon citing his own mistake in another game (but from what I can tell from a quick look, it wasn't really similar -- he said "cop" when he should have said "claimed cop", which in my opinion is scummier than what I did), and didn't believe my true "first random vote" statement.
His only recent contribution was a joke, even though he's been very active elsewhere on the site, and there's been enough stuff to talk about.
vikingfan:
Third person on the bandwagon, but didn't seem really enthusiastic about it. Has announced that he will unvote if the lynch goes too quick; if it's going to come to that, and if he *doesn't* unvote, then he's going to look very scummy. Otherwise, not particularly.
Aelyn:
Has posted nothing but one attack on me, and has been the only player not averse to a fourth vote.
I have nothing interesting to say about the others; they don't look especially scummy or townish.
My main suspects right now are draygn_mage, LoudmouthLee, and Aelyn.confirm vote: draygn_mage."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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That was me being annoyed at an accusation of both scumminess AND stupidity.LoudmouthLee wrote:You say that "scum wouldn't be that careless" and "yes, I would out myself on my first post" still seems like scum caught in headlights.
Your alleged ability to detect scum from their first post, even if it were perfect, would only tell us something *if* we assumed you're pro-town, which may very well be false. To the extent that I think you're a capable scum-finder, I also think you're a scum, because from your very first vote you've been attacking someone I (and only I) know to be pro-town.
That wasn't really a correction, and you posted it only when you got called on it. But this isn't the point! The point is that you, believing that I assumed four unified scum,My notes in my games got crossed, and I did post a correction mere hours later.thought this was because I had inside information, which in turn would imply that it wasactually true, when itclearly wasn't true because of the death scene. If you were pro-town rather than a scum looking to spread confusion, the logical conclusion would have been that, if I believed in four unified scum, I would be either mistaken, or deliberately spreading lies,notthat I knew the truth and chose to post about it."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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Fiasco Goon
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Actually, I'm at two votes now, due to draygn_mage's unvote.
I'm not sure what Passdog meant here:
If that means four is safe and five is not, then I don't agree. If it means three is safe and four is not, then I agree, but then it would make sense for me to say the fourth vote may be scum.As he himself has stated there are six to lynch - in my mind that would make four the critical number not three.
Other than that, Passdog is voting me purely for a high posting rate (one reason for which is that literally everyone has been attacking me).FoS Passdog, because you can't just bandwagon people for being active."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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You mean the one that says this?
I always took that guide more as meaning "don't pretend to have special information" than "be as boring as possible".I’m not saying all the Townies should shut up, every game. That’s incorrect, as it would encourage Mafias being silent as well, and help them blend in the crowd.
Also, that guide applies only to vanilla townies. I may or may not be one.
My posts are "providing room for the mafia to hide in"only if you let themby lurking and by letting lurkers get away with it.
What makes for good pro-town posting habits is an interesting discussion, but I'm getting the feeling that you're voting mejust because I annoy you, not because you think I'm more likely to act like this as scum than as town. If you look at past games where I was town (newbie-143, nativity mafia), you'll find that I acted the same way."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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confirm vote: draygn_mage. That was a blatant bandwagon-hop; if you were pro-town, you would at least have explained what in Aelyn's long summary convinced you that I was scum.
I reread the game yesterday and I now acknowledge that I did come across as rather defensive; still, you guys are blowing it way out of proportion. I'll reply to some details later, butstrong FoS: Aelynfor a highly tendentious game writeup in which he didn't even address the point that he's been in a game with me before, and my posting style there was similar. (Unless I've missed that.)"I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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OK, instead of "bandwagon hopping", make that whatever you call quickly jumping onto someone's bandwagon with essentially nothing more than a "me too".
You still haven't stated your reasons for fourth-voting me; is it the "assuming" thing?"I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Before you decide whether or not to push me for a claim, I still owe you a response to some points in Aelyn's dreadnought. I will probably not get around to posting much in the next few days (busy), but I'll try to post that response.
In the mean time I feel it's worth pointing out that, while I've been in non-newbie games before, I replaced into a fairly late stage into those games. Until this game I hadn't been able to form any intuitions on bandwagons.
I think it's a shame LML is intentionally posting less. This is how hunting active posters (whether because they post more total scum tells given the same scum tell rate, or because the activity itself is seen as scummy) helps kill games.
I'd like to point at draygn_mage again: it's become clear now that he never had a reason for his fourth-vote on me, other than the conveniently vague reason that my posts seem "off" and "not quite right"."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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Passdog: I'm not arguing the "newbie" thing should exempt me from lynches, just that it provides an alternative explanation for the no-nos that I apparently committed in reacting to my bandwagon. Likewise I'm not arguing my earlier playing style proves me innocent; I posted a lot in the game where I was scum (Simple Sicily) too. I'm just arguing you can't use the playing style as evidence for my guilt. At most it may help you justify a meta-game vote to get me to change my behavior.
Norinel: No, of course we shouldn'tignorescum tells; it's just that if scum tells were selected from a larger number of posts, we ought to give them less weight in estimating scumminess. Once again, someone with two tells in four posts is scummier than someone with three tells in ten posts, even though all three tells should be pointed out. I'd have thought this was uncontroversial, but apparently not.
Not much time to spend on mafia in the recent past and near future; sorry."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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Now THAT is interesting, and it confirms all my suspicions.unvote, vote Aelyn
I'm not sure I would have claimed with the doc dead, but I'll let the others debate the wisdom of that. Don Gaetano, to the extent that bone-headedness on my part forced you to reveal yourself, I'm very sorry.
If this claim is true, it makes both LoudmouthLee and draygn_mage (and to a much lesser extent Jaguar, KingPin and vikingfan) look bad."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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Now that is EVEN MORE interesting.
Exactly once.How many times did I say Aelyn was NOT the lynch today?
LML, you'll have to admit that everything DG has said until now SCREAMS "I'm a cop with a guilty result on Aelyn". If he's a scum cop, he's prepared this very well. And it's pretty strange that it turns out you investigated the exact same person out of eleven possible targets.
My preferred explanation is that LML and Aelyn are scum together. Non-sane cops seem less likely, and a scummy DG also seems less likely."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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sorry for double-posting;
should have said "if he's a scum pretending to be a cop", obviously.Fiasco wrote:If he's a scum cop
LML gets points for counterclaiming within an hour. On the other hand I don't see what DG did making much sense for a scum."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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If one of you is non-sane, then we have no information about Aelyn that we didn't have before the claims. His death will give us possibly useful information, but he isn't more likely to be scum than he was before the claims."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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In my first mafia game, two people actually claimed a guilty investigation on Aelyn (one real, one fake).Jaguar wrote:we have a unique situation on our hands.
One thing we should do before lynching Aelyn is discuss whether both LML and DG might be scum. I'm not sure that would make any sense, but I haven't heard the possibility mentioned yet."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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This situation is complicated enough that it would benefit the town to THINK THINGS OVER before lynching. Aelyn's nightkill-immune claim does sound rather like a serial killer. I still think Aelyn's probably the correct lynch, but LML, why in the heck are you almost-lynching him this fast? We haven't even heard from everyone yet."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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We've just gained three new pieces of information a few hours ago -- DG claims to be a cop with a guilty result on Aelyn, LML claims to be a cop with an innocent result on Aelyn, Aelyn claims to be nightkill-immune. And LML is pushing bandwagons around like mad, first putting a (mistaken?) fifth vote on Aelyn and then an unexplained fourth vote back on me? I don't get it. We've got a lot of new information to process, and the right move is to calm the heck down. Both Aelyn and LML seem horribly scummy to me, but is there a combination of SK/mafia alignments that would make their behavior make any sense?"I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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LML just inexplicably jumped back onto my bandwagon, so maybe he's hoping two other scum will jump in to speedlynch me, unlikely though that seems. In view of this, Aelyn, would you mind putting your unvote where your mouth is?"I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Current favorite theory: Aelyn is the SK, LML is a mafia, DG is a sane cop. LML, knowing that Aelyn was not in the mafia, thought DG could be insane, and thought it was worth the risk to claim an innocent result; if Aelyn turned out to be the SK, LML could always claim to be insane himself.
Evidence later and I still need to do a reread to see whether this makes sense.
Response to LML:
"Before mention was made"? When you admitted the mistake, both Aelyn and I had pointed out Aelyn was at five. Moreover, I had already unvoted. This is consistent with the possibility that you intended to put Aelyn at five, hoping that the lynch would happen quickly. The miscount claim could then be either something you planned, or something you came up with spontaneously when it looked like the speedlynch wouldn't work.LoudmouthLee wrote:Or maybe I'm just annoyed because I made a mistake, posted it (before mention was made)
I didn't even do that in the post you quoted when voting me; I just said your miscount was careless. Itand then see you throw suspicion around?wascareless, because if you weren't corrected it could have meant a lynch when a scum came along.
WIFOM. Also, maybe the SK could be a speedlynch participant. And there could be any number of surprises (for the town) in the setup. Putting someone at four votes just for personal annoyance is simply a bad idea in a situation like this; that's why I thought there must be another reason.You're obviously not thinking, Fiasco, The other two scum to speedlynch you? Wouldn't that be obvious?
But yeah, I did say it was unlikely; I just wasn't sure, and it didn't seem completely impossible."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Here's something interesting. The mod posted a vanilla townie PM. I always thought this was to prevent people from gaining anything by PM-quoting or PM-hinting, because other than masons who know each other anyway, vanilla townies are the only role of which there's more than one in the game. This was true the one time I've been in a game with such a PM posted.
Of course, it'spossiblethat there's two people with the same role PM who are neither masons nor townies; in that case you would have to rely on the "do not quote the mod's PMs" rule to prevent abuse. But it's something to think about.
Some questions for LML:
* Aelyn already asked this one, but you didn't answer: is there anything in your role to suggest inaccuracies?
* Can you self-investigate?
* If you think I'm mafia, what do you think Aelyn's alignment is? Do you seriously think I'm the best lynch at this point?"I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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This is interesting, because if you're sane, then Aelyn is unnightkillable. I'm not sure what that does for our chances of victory, but it has to be good. And I can see only one way to find out whether you're right while keeping Aelyn alive.
I say we take off and lynch LML from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
(Actually, no... having an unnightkillable townie wouldn't guarantee us a draw, and the whole story just isn't believable enough. But it's another option to think about.)"I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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He hasn't yet said whether his role PM suggests sanity, so if we found him innocent, that wouldn't necessarily prove Aelyn guilty. (Don Gaetano, same questions for you as for LML, obviously: does your role PM suggest sanity? can you self-investigate?)
Also, I think his claim is much more believable."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Here's something else we need to think about. Would we prefer to lynch a mafioso or an SK? It depends on how likely we think they are to kill each other, instead of us.
I have some more reasons to suspect Aelyn, but it's better if I don't mention them until he's online."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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Apologies for the triple post, but if I don't correct myself, others will:
It depends on how likely the SK is to target the mafia. If we think the SK will target the mafia, we should probably try to lynch a mafioso; if we think the SK will target the town, we should try to lynch the SK.Fiasco wrote:It depends on how likely we think they are to kill each other, instead of us."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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That's a point in your favor, but there are more important points in DG's favor:LoudmouthLee wrote:Really? because I counterclaimed within the hour?
* as the first player to claim, he doesn't have the strange coincidence to explain about both of you choosing Aelyn
* his pre-claim hints have been more blatant
* IMHO he hasn't behaved as scummily as you
* IMHO Aelyn is likely to be scum for other reasons"I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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Fiasco Goon
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Like KingPin, you haven't given any arguments for this whatsoever. I deny having said a single scummy word since at least your cop claim, and I'm shocked that anyone could read the exchanges between me and LML and see *me* as the scummy one.Don Gaetano wrote:First let me say that Fiasco is acting scummy and like an idiot, no doubt about it.
(LoudmouthLee thinks I'm scum and Aelyn is town. I unvoted a claimed nightkill-immune townie when he was at five votes; if I were scum and he were town (or SK), why wouldn't I just sit back and let people lynch him immediately? WIFOM, but still.)
But LML thinks he's sane because of his PM! Clearly you can't both be sane, so something weird must be going on.The fact that LML even mentioned that the phrase "sanity unknown" is absent makes me 95% sure that LML is pro-town, that we most likely got the same PM,
Also, how often do these PMs explicitly say "sanity unknown"? I'd say not very often.
That's an odd thing to say for someone who would like to see a claimed power role lynched.Aelyn wrote:Lynching claimed power roles day one is a bad idea, m'kay?
This is an exceptional case where you actually have to think instead of using rules of thumb, m'kay? I'm not saying we should lynch LML (you didn't quote the "actually, no" part of my post), but it's worth thinking about, because if he's so sure he's sane, then in the unlikely case that he's innocent, we would have ourselves a confirmed-innocent bulletproof townie. And it *is* very unlikely that he's innocent, because that would mean we have a non-sane cop in a "basic" game with just a townie pm given, AND it would mean he chose the same target out of eleven by coincidence, AND it would mean all the constant anti-town play on the part of a supposed mafia god was just an honest mistake.
I don't know, actually. What happened proves he didn't think about it for more than an hour. That's a point in his favor, but you're right that it's not all that strong.Norinel wrote:Would LML as scum need more than a few minutes to decide to counterclaim?"I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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Fiasco Goon
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I intended it as saying, "actually, no, I do *not* say we lynch LML, but it *is* another option to think about". How did you read it?KingPin wrote:Do you see where it says "lynch LML"? The "actually, no" part doesn't seem to support you not advocating this outcome.
"Don't lynch a claimed cop" is just a slogan, a rule-of-thumb. I was calling LML out on his bluff: if his PM implies that he's sane, then if we lynch him, even in the worst case we still get a confirmed-innocent unkillable townie.And as LML pointed out, you were/are trying to lynch a claimed cop!
Also it's unfair to say I'mtryingto lynch LML. He's been at zero votes for a while now. I'm just trying to discuss our options. Aelyn is still my favorite target for today, but we should think about it.
I'm referring to Aelyn. Aelyn seemed to be saying that since we shouldn't lynch claimed power roles, Aelyn is a better lynch than LML, but that doesn't follow, because Aelyn is claiming a powerful role for himself.In addition, when you suggest that it is odd for Aelyn to want to lynch a claimed power role, which player are you referring to?"I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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Passdog, see #184
Don Gaetano, that's interesting. I was going to say my current favorite theory was that Aelyn is a godfather with a (possibly one-shot) nightkill immunity but without cop immunity, LML is a mafia goon, and you're a sane cop. Your point makes Aelyn somewhat more likely to be innocent (though always be careful in outguessing the mod).
It still bothers me that LML says based on his PM that he has to believe he's sane, and that you're saying it's probably the same PM. This can't both be true, so which of you is wrong? And the "sanity unknown" thing really doesn't impress me; saying that's not in there is only a very small risk.
Aelyn, why didn't you state your role name spontaneously? Why didn't you say why when I asked you? I'm not asking because I'm mad at you and want an apology; I'm asking because I want to know."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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Question to LML: if you think I'm scum and Aelyn's town, how do you explain #149? Do you agree that if this scenario is true, I just made a huge sacrifice by probably saving the only unnightkillable player from a lynch?
Question to Don Gaetano: once again, can you self-investigate?"I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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Fiasco Goon
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Fiasco Goon
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So have people lost interest in the game, or what?
I always enjoy opinions more when they're backed with facts and logic, but I suppose you can't argue about taste.vikingfan wrote:As much as I think Fiasco looks scummyNot even oneof you has bothered to address the logic behind a possible LML lynch.
It's kind of interesting that you feel this, because if you're pro-town youAelyn wrote:I feel I am a better lynch than LML.knowyou're a powerful pro-town role, whereas you onlysuspectLML is a powerful pro-town role. (And the berserk episode LML just had on pages 6-7, as well as his earlier behavior, strongly suggest otherwise. He almost got you speedlynched!)
This is probably going to enrage some people again, but here's another advantage to lynching LML. It's unlikely (IMHO) that either LML or Aelyn is the SK, meaning there will be two nightkill attempts no matter what. The obvious targets are LML and DG. If we lynch LML, it becomes more likely that the scum will waste a nightkill by both attacking DG (and who knows, DG might even have a doc protect).
Or in other words, even if we don't lynch LML, we may lose him to a nightkill anyway. This is emphaticallynottrue of Aelyn: if we lynch Aelyn today, and Aelyn is innocent, then we're losing a power role we couldneverhave lost otherwise.
It's worth thinking about, in a way that's not just "OMG!!! COPLYNCHER!!! kneejerkkneejerkkneejerk".-
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Fiasco Goon
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"Quite possible"? I've never seen that before, and having two non-sane cops would be a huge disadvantage for the town. (Let's be exact in our terminology: an "insane" cop is one that gets reversed results, a "non-sane" cop is a cop who doesn't always get correct results.)Aelyn wrote:and the quite possible one of both being insane, one way or another.
Of course, if you're innocent and we assume all cops are insane/naive/paranoid, LML has to be naive and DG either insane or paranoid.-
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Fiasco Goon
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Come to think of it, if there's no sane cop (and I know you're not saying there isn't, just that it's possible) then the most logical explanation of what's happened is that DG is insane/paranoid and LML jumped in with a fake innocent result on someone he knew is not in the mafia. That would make you (Aelyn) probably innocent, and it would again make LML the correct lynch.
But I do think there is a sane cop in the game, so the above argument isn't strong."I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." - Oliver Cromwell-
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Fiasco Goon
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