Mini 280 - Game Over

[Aelyn]

I think we should just calm down. We need to hear from everyone else before coming to a decision - I feel we should wait for everyone to weigh in before making any rash decision.

[Fiasco]

LML just inexplicably jumped back onto my bandwagon, so maybe he's hoping two other scum will jump in to speedlynch me, unlikely though that seems. In view of this, Aelyn, would you mind putting your unvote where your mouth is?

[Aelyn]

LML just inexplicably jumped back onto my bandwagon, so maybe he's hoping two other scum will jump in to speedlynch me, unlikely though that seems. In view of this, Aelyn, would you mind putting your unvote where your mouth is?

*shrug* If it makes you feel better.

Unvote: Fiasco.

FOS: Fiasco.

I'm not gonna let you off that easy :p

[LoudmouthLee]

LML just inexplicably jumped back onto my bandwagon, so maybe he's hoping two other scum will jump in to speedlynch me, unlikely though that seems. In view of this, Aelyn, would you mind putting your unvote where your mouth is?

Or maybe I'm just annoyed because I made a mistake, posted it (before mention was made) and then see you throw suspicion around?

You're obviously not thinking, Fiasco, The other two scum to speedlynch you? Wouldn't that be obvious?

For someone who's normally logical and intelligent, you're sure posting like a donkey. Hence, my suspicions have not been allayed, and hence, my vote stays.

In other words, you annoy me.

[LyingBrian]

• Vote Count:
  • 3) Aelyn
    • Don Gaetano
      
    • Jaguar
      
    • vikingfan
  • 3) Fiasco
    • draygn_mage
      
    • LoudmouthLee
      
    • Passdog
  • 1) Passdog
    • Norinel
  • 3)
    not voting
    • Aelyn
      
    • Fiasco
      
    • KingPin
• Lynch:
  6 votes

[Fiasco]

Current favorite theory: Aelyn is the SK, LML is a mafia, DG is a sane cop. LML, knowing that Aelyn was not in the mafia, thought DG could be insane, and thought it was worth the risk to claim an innocent result; if Aelyn turned out to be the SK, LML could always claim to be insane himself.

Evidence later and I still need to do a reread to see whether this makes sense.

Response to LML:

Or maybe I'm just annoyed because I made a mistake, posted it (before mention was made)

"Before mention was made"? When you admitted the mistake, both Aelyn and I had pointed out Aelyn was at five. Moreover, I had already unvoted. This is consistent with the possibility that you intended to put Aelyn at five, hoping that the lynch would happen quickly. The miscount claim could then be either something you planned, or something you came up with spontaneously when it looked like the speedlynch wouldn't work.

and then see you throw suspicion around?

I didn't even do that in the post you quoted when voting me; I just said your miscount was careless. It

was

careless, because if you weren't corrected it could have meant a lynch when a scum came along.

You're obviously not thinking, Fiasco, The other two scum to speedlynch you? Wouldn't that be obvious?

WIFOM. Also, maybe the SK could be a speedlynch participant. And there could be any number of surprises (for the town) in the setup. Putting someone at four votes just for personal annoyance is simply a bad idea in a situation like this; that's why I thought there must be another reason.

But yeah, I did say it was unlikely; I just wasn't sure, and it didn't seem completely impossible.

[LoudmouthLee]

Current favorite theory: Aelyn is the SK, LML is a mafia, DG is a sane cop. LML, knowing that Aelyn was not in the mafia, thought DG could be insane, and thought it was worth the risk to claim an innocent result; if Aelyn turned out to be the SK, LML could always claim to be insane himself.

Current favorite theory. Fiasco's mafia.

[Fiasco]

Here's something interesting. The mod posted a vanilla townie PM. I always thought this was to prevent people from gaining anything by PM-quoting or PM-hinting, because other than masons who know each other anyway, vanilla townies are the only role of which there's more than one in the game. This was true the one time I've been in a game with such a PM posted.

Of course, it's

possible

that there's two people with the same role PM who are neither masons nor townies; in that case you would have to rely on the "do not quote the mod's PMs" rule to prevent abuse. But it's something to think about.

Some questions for LML:

* Aelyn already asked this one, but you didn't answer: is there anything in your role to suggest inaccuracies?
* Can you self-investigate?
* If you think I'm mafia, what do you think Aelyn's alignment is? Do you seriously think I'm the best lynch at this point?

[LoudmouthLee]

* Aelyn already asked this one, but you didn't answer: is there anything in your role to suggest inaccuracies?
* Can you self-investigate?
* If you think I'm mafia, what do you think Aelyn's alignment is? Do you seriously think I'm the best lynch at this point?

-No (the phrase sanity unknown is absent)
-Don't know, but I couldn't see why not.
-I don't know if you're mafia, but you seem very anti-town. Your first post actually suggests SK (the more I think of it.). I still think Aelyn is innocent.

[Fiasco]

You "still" think Aelyn's innocent? This is news to me.

As of right now, dollars to donuts, DG's sane, I'm not.

[LoudmouthLee]

After re-reading my PM, I have to believe I'm sane. It's called.. a change of mind.

[Fiasco]

This is interesting, because if you're sane, then Aelyn is unnightkillable. I'm not sure what that does for our chances of victory, but it has to be good. And I can see only one way to find out whether you're right while keeping Aelyn alive.

I say we take off and lynch LML from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

(Actually, no... having an unnightkillable townie wouldn't guarantee us a draw, and the whole story just isn't believable enough. But it's another option to think about.)

[LoudmouthLee]

Lynch a cop?

He's advocating lynching a cop.

Jeez people. Wake up and bandwagon him.

[LoudmouthLee]

This is interesting, because if you're sane, then Aelyn is unnightkillable. I'm not sure what that does for our chances of victory, but it has to be good. And I can see only one way to find out whether you're right while keeping Aelyn alive.

I say we take off and lynch LML from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

(Actually, no... having an unnightkillable townie wouldn't guarantee us a draw, and the whole story just isn't believable enough. But it's another option to think about.)

Why me and not DG, eh?

[Fiasco]

He hasn't yet said whether his role PM suggests sanity, so if we found him innocent, that wouldn't necessarily prove Aelyn guilty. (Don Gaetano, same questions for you as for LML, obviously: does your role PM suggest sanity? can you self-investigate?)

Also, I think his claim is much more believable.

[Fiasco]

Here's something else we need to think about. Would we prefer to lynch a mafioso or an SK? It depends on how likely we think they are to kill each other, instead of us.

I have some more reasons to suspect Aelyn, but it's better if I don't mention them until he's online.

[LoudmouthLee]

He hasn't yet said whether his role PM suggests sanity, so if we found him innocent, that wouldn't necessarily prove Aelyn guilty. (Don Gaetano, same questions for you as for LML, obviously: does your role PM suggest sanity? can you self-investigate?)

Also, I think his claim is much more believable.

Really? because I counterclaimed within the hour?

[Fiasco]

Apologies for the triple post, but if I don't correct myself, others will:

It depends on how likely we think they are to kill each other, instead of us.

It depends on how likely the SK is to target the mafia. If we think the SK will target the mafia, we should probably try to lynch a mafioso; if we think the SK will target the town, we should try to lynch the SK.

[Fiasco]

Really? because I counterclaimed within the hour?

That's a point in your favor, but there are more important points in DG's favor:

* as the first player to claim, he doesn't have the strange coincidence to explain about both of you choosing Aelyn
* his pre-claim hints have been more blatant
* IMHO he hasn't behaved as scummily as you
* IMHO Aelyn is likely to be scum for other reasons

[KingPin]

I think the confusion between advocating for a lynch of a claimed cop on D1 and a, now very scummy acting, Fiasco is easily solved.

I've read, re-read, re-re-read and have come to the conclusion that:
1: I am never going to vote for a Claimed Cop on D1, without some hard-core evidence.
2: If we have 2 claimed cops that have investigated the same person with different results
3: We can identify, at least sanity, and the likelihood of mafia aliances, by lynching the investigated. Worst case senario - Aelyn is town, and both claimed cops are actually cops, with questionable sanity.
4: If anything, Fiasco is acting so scummy at the moment it is outstanding... but to get the information that the town needs, today we must lynch Aelyn.

Vote: Aelyn

[Fiasco]

Your defense of Lee is noted. And may I remind everyone, AGAIN, that BEFORE lynching Aelyn, we still have at least four people to hear from (including DG) and several things to discuss?

[Don Gaetano]

First let me say that Fiasco is acting scummy and like an idiot, no doubt about it.

=====

Secondly, to answer to Fiasco's questions.

There's nothing in my PM that hints at me being insane, paranoid or similar, and like LML, the phrase "sanity unknown" is absent.

The fact that LML even mentioned that the phrase "sanity unknown" is absent makes me 95% sure that LML is pro-town, that we most likely got the same PM, and that one of us isn't sane. The problem is that it looks like it would be impossible to find out which one of us is sane unless we lynch Aelyn, and then the sane one would almost definately be killed during the night.

Let's just hope that I'm the sane one, or my little claiming stunt will have cost the town a lynch, aswell as loosing the sane cop during the night.

Actually the worst case scenario is that neither one of us is sane, but if I'm paranoid and he's naive, then the town has pretty much already lost.

[Aelyn]

The fact that LML even mentioned that the phrase "sanity unknown" is absent makes me 95% sure that LML is pro-town, that we most likely got the same PM, and that one of us isn't sane.

Quick reality check here. You're saying that the LACK of a phrase makes you believe you have identical role PMs? What's more, I have NEVER seen that phrase before.

I would like to ask at this point that you do NOT discuss the exact phraseology of your PMs. It gets way too close to modquoting for my taste.

The problem is that it looks like it would be impossible to find out which one of us is sane unless we lynch Aelyn, and then the sane one would almost definately be killed during the night.

Let's just hope that I'm the sane one, or my little claiming stunt will have cost the town a lynch, aswell as loosing the sane cop during the night.

Actually the worst case scenario is that neither one of us is sane, but if I'm paranoid and he's naive, then the town has pretty much already lost.

Hardly. If that's the case, then we're at a situation with two more townies than we thought we had but two less power roles. It's not a good position to be in, but it's still winnable if we play carefully.

I say we take off and lynch LML from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

Lynching claimed power roles day one is a bad idea, m'kay? Take a leaf out of this guy's book:

1: I am never going to vote for a Claimed Cop on D1, without some hard-core evidence.

I would rather I was the lynch than LML, definitely.

[Norinel]

LML gets points for counterclaiming within an hour.

Why? If I were to counterclaim now (Which I'm not), would it be any less valued by the fact that I wasn't on in the couple hours yesterday that all the new info came out? Would LML as scum need more than a few minutes to decide to counterclaim?

I am immune to nightkills, and I'm happy to be tested if you want.

That last seems like an SK or 'lover' qualification- it seems too powerful otherwise.

Not really. It's a relatively common ability for GFs and SKs to have, but it's not unheard of in the hands of the town. That probably wouldn't make testing it via vig all that useful.

Current favorite theory: Aelyn is the SK, LML is a mafia, DG is a sane cop. LML, knowing that Aelyn was not in the mafia, thought DG could be insane, and thought it was worth the risk to claim an innocent result; if Aelyn turned out to be the SK, LML could always claim to be insane himself.

I'm also intrigued by the possiblity that either of the claimed cops is scum giving a result they know to be right to credit them after Aelyn's death and discredit the other cop. (If he happens to be nonsane and not lying)

And I agree that lynching Aelyn is probably the best choice for information. On the other hand, the fact that LML's been most recently advocating anything but is quite interesting.

[Fiasco]

First let me say that Fiasco is acting scummy and like an idiot, no doubt about it.

Like KingPin, you haven't given any arguments for this whatsoever. I deny having said a single scummy word since at least your cop claim, and I'm shocked that anyone could read the exchanges between me and LML and see *me* as the scummy one.

(LoudmouthLee thinks I'm scum and Aelyn is town. I unvoted a claimed nightkill-immune townie when he was at five votes; if I were scum and he were town (or SK), why wouldn't I just sit back and let people lynch him immediately? WIFOM, but still.)

The fact that LML even mentioned that the phrase "sanity unknown" is absent makes me 95% sure that LML is pro-town, that we most likely got the same PM,

But LML thinks he's sane because of his PM! Clearly you can't both be sane, so something weird must be going on.

Also, how often do these PMs explicitly say "sanity unknown"? I'd say not very often.

Lynching claimed power roles day one is a bad idea, m'kay?

That's an odd thing to say for someone who would like to see a claimed power role lynched.

This is an exceptional case where you actually have to think instead of using rules of thumb, m'kay? I'm not saying we should lynch LML (you didn't quote the "actually, no" part of my post), but it's worth thinking about, because if he's so sure he's sane, then in the unlikely case that he's innocent, we would have ourselves a confirmed-innocent bulletproof townie. And it *is* very unlikely that he's innocent, because that would mean we have a non-sane cop in a "basic" game with just a townie pm given, AND it would mean he chose the same target out of eleven by coincidence, AND it would mean all the constant anti-town play on the part of a supposed mafia god was just an honest mistake.

Would LML as scum need more than a few minutes to decide to counterclaim?

I don't know, actually. What happened proves he didn't think about it for more than an hour. That's a point in his favor, but you're right that it's not all that strong.