Open 87 - Baby Too Much Scum - Over before 641
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Wait, so you think I'm scum because I explained my vote on armlx rather than place a reasonless vote on him? Now that's interesting...Oman wrote:Well: Town tend to just vote it and then say "yes, I'm bandwagoning" when questioned or something like that.
Scum tend to overexplain themselves, for fear of getting pressured.
I want you to show me a proper townie vote in that situation and how my vote was an over explanation.-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Basically, you're saying that you think my vote was scummy because I over explained myself. I want you to back up that statement. The "show me a proper townie vote" was basically my way of asking "I want you to show me the way my vote/reasoning differed from the way a townie would have voted in that situation." The reason I asked that question is because I really don't think you have a good answer.
Also, should I be voting you right now for over explaining yourself when you voted for me? Shouldn't you have just plopped down a vote and waited for someone to ask why you voted?-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Actually, I'm voting you because your vote on me is entirely hypocritical.
You're saying that a townie would vote without reasoning and then only give it later on, when questioned, whereas scum feel the need to explain themselves. Your vote on me contained your reasoning within the post. According to your logic, that's a scum tell suggesting that you're afraid of getting pressured for your vote on me.
Basically, your entire reason for voting me is complete bunk. Providing reasoning with a vote is a complete null-tell. Scum provide reasoning for their votes, and so do townies. For the same logic that you're providing to vote for me, I should also be voting for you.
You were pushing crap logic as a means to put a vote on me, who already had someone else with a legitimate vote on them. It looks like you were just trying to push a bandwagon on me, and threw out that anecdotal scum tell stuff as a fancy way of making your vote look nice.-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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On the contrary, my vote on armlx was the first real vote of the game. Also, nobody else was taking a stance on any active players. There was no game discussion for me to be avoiding. I definitely agree with you that someone who is lurkerhunting while avoiding discussing real issues is scummy, but what was I avoiding by lurker hunting?OhGodMyLife wrote:Lurkerhunting gives scum a free ride for their vote without (usually) having many questions asked. Certainly the lurker him/herself is not often going to fight back against it, since they're lurking and should be mod prodded rather than voted, and generally the rest of the town goes hm, well all right, a lurkervote, sure and goes on with their business. However, by voting a lurker, you are pointedly not taking a stand on any active players, thereby avoiding the fireworks associated with confronting someone who might fire back, and avoiding leaving a real voting record on any issues the town is actually in the midst of discussing.
Considering my vote is now on Oman for real reasons, do you still think this is a valid reason to be voting me?
Also, what do you think about Oman's reasons for voting me?-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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I didn't understand a term you used. Had I understood the term you used then I would not have had to ask you any questions.Oman wrote:
If my vote contained my reasoning, why did you have to ask me questions about it?Goat wrote:our vote on me contained your reasoning within the post
The point is this. You voted me because I provided an explanation for my vote, which is apparently scummy. However, when you voted for me you explained the reasons for your vote. Therefore you are committing the exact same "scum tell" that you're accusing me of. Hypocrisy.
I put scum tell in quotations because someone providing reasoning for their vote is not scummy by any stretch of the imagination. If you actually thought that was true, then you would not have provided reasoning for your vote on me.
You're currently voting me for a null tell that you yourself have committed. OGML had already voted me with a real reason, and you hopped on the wagon with crap logic. That's scummy.-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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His vote on me is because I provided reasoning when I voted for you. I argue that providing reasoning along with a vote is a null tell. Scum and townies both provide reasoning when they vote for people.armlx wrote:GR, exacly what null tell has Oman voted you for and done.
He did the same thing himself because when he actually put that vote on me, he provided the reasoning for it. He committed that same alleged "scum tell" he accused me of.-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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That doesn't explain why you placed your vote in the first place. And I don't see why aggressiveness towards voting you for your blatant hypocrisy and bandwagoning is scummy in the least bit.Oman wrote:The scummiest thing is your heavy reaction to it. Being quite aggressive back "by any stretch of the imagination" etc.-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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What are you talking about? My vote on armlx was a real vote. Just because it happened at the same time others were random voting does not make it less meaningful.Crazy wrote:Your vote was mostly in the random stage. Oman's wasn't. Thus, it is not hypocrisy.
Besides, whether or not my vote happened during the random stage or not has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not his vote was hypocritical. He voted me for providing reasoning for my vote. His vote on me had a provided reasoning. Not only is providing reasoning a null-tell, but he is guilty of that same tell he accused me of.
His vote was practically the definition of bandwagoning. He jumped on a player who already had a legitimate vote on them and did so with completely meaningless reasoning. If that's not scummy, then I don't know what is.Crazy wrote:And... bandwagoning? Just because it's the 3rd vote doesn't mean it's bandwagoning!
Then again, your vote right here is blatant bandwagoning on an extremely weak wagon without giving any reason whatsoever to why you think I'm scum, so I'm wondering if my vote would better be placed on you.
I can tell you've been wanting to do that for some time. So what are your reasons for thinking I'm scum, or are you just trying to push a weak wagon even further?Crazy wrote:Unvote
Vote Goatrevolt
Right now my wagon consists of:
OGML: Who is voting me for lurker hunting, which he pointed out is scummy because it can be used to avoid discussion. Considering there was no discussion at the time and my vote on armlx was meant to actually spark discussion he doesn't have a valid point.
Oman: Who is voting me because I provided reasoning when I voted for armlx, which is entirely a null-tell and hypocritical to boot.
Crazy: Who hasn't given a reason outside of outrage that I called Oman's vote bandwagoning, when that's precisely what it is.
I'm still happy with my vote on Oman, but I must say that Crazy's attempt to sneak onto my wagon is pretty scummy as well. Just looking through his posts, it was clear that he had been wanting to do this for a while but was trying to wait for a chance to actually justify it. Is that the picture of someone looking for scum or looking for an easy lynch?-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Translation: I voted you because you were defending yourself.Crazy wrote:My vote on you was because of your constant attempts to derail the argument against you.
Where am I defending myself with crap logic? Point it out to me.Crazy wrote:Admittedly, Oman's original argument against you was rather weak, but you kept defending yourself with craplogic, and voting Oman for reasons that are hardly justified.
My reasons for voting Oman are entirely justified. His reason for voting me was horrible, so I voted him for his crap reasons to justify his vote on me.-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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First of all, I think you're putting me in a "damned if you, damned if you don't situation." Either I don't defend myself and the charges stick against me, or I defend myself and get accused with being over defensive (or reactive and angry as it's called here). There must be a nice tight line that a townie has to walk to manage to get out of a bandwagon and somehow manage to either not be dismissive or over defensive. Of course, scum are too stupid to know how to walk that line, because stepping too far either way is a scum tell...
Besides, where have I been reactive and angry? Are you talking about me turning around and voting you for the exact same logic you used to vote for me?
Obviously I have a biased opinion in this situation, but I don't think that getting frustrated at being wagoned for dumb reasons is a scum tell. Townies get frustrated all the time as well. I actually just finished a game where I defended farside because I thought an outburst she had in response to a wagon against her day 1 was a town tell, and it indeed turned out that she was town.
Or townies wagoned for dumb reasons yell and scream and headdesk about how stupid the town is playing, etc.Oman wrote:Scum picked for an early wagon yell and scream and headdesk for their mistakes to be caught so early.-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Discussion had already started. He was putting a 2nd legitimate vote on someone who already had a legitimate vote and suspicion on them. Believe me, that vote wasn't meant "to spark discussion."Crazy wrote:I think GR was mistaken of what Oman was trying to do. Oman wasn't hypocritical IMO; I'm thinking he was just trying to start discussion.
Oman's public statement: Placing a vote with reasoning is something scum do more often than town.Hypocrite: a person who feigns some desirable or publicly approved attitude,esp. one whoseprivate life, opinions, orstatements belie his or her public statements.
Oman's vote: Placed with reasoning on me. His actions speak the lie to his public statement, and thus is hypocrisy.
Why do you think both of us are town?Crazy wrote:I'm thinking that both of them are town, actually. As for who the scum is, I gotta reread...
Crazy wrote:And lurker-hunting, in fact, is a scum-tell later in the game, but at that point, I don't think it can be considered anything.
Contradiction?Crazy wrote:Then I suppose you could be called out for lurker-hunting, which is... well, bad, as it's the mod's job to do that.
Overreacting implies that my actions were out of line. I feel that my actions were perfectly justified. Oman furthers a bandwagon on me with crap logic. I feel my reaction and vote on him was not an overreaction at all. Aggressive? Sure, but is there anything wrong with being aggressive?Crazy wrote:Woah, woah, what? GR was overreacting to Oman's vote. The whole case was erupted enormously out of proportion.
These 3 quotes right here:Crazy wrote:Show me where I wanted to vote GR before I did... that's what he said but I couldn't find anything.
Crazy wrote:We're not yet totally into the full game-part yet. I'd say his vote is justified.Your reactions are interesting, if anything.Crazy wrote:Interesting means that I don't know whether it's scummy or not, but I'd like to look into it, andkeep my eye on you.
Bolded for emphasis. Especially that last quote right there. You accuse me of trying to lessen the suspicion on myself (basically, defend myself) and imply it as being a bad thing. To me that suggests that you've already made up your mind and are just waiting at this point for an opportunity to jump on my bandwagon. It certainly wasn't a surprise at all when you voted for me. I had been expecting it.Crazy wrote:I believe Oman's point was that you provided reasoning on a seemingly random vote.You're trying to make the suspicion smaller than it is.-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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I don't think Oman expected his vote on me to be challenged. After all he was voting for someone other people had already expressed suspicion on.Oman wrote:I always get good vibes when someone willingly puts themselves in the spotlight in an attempt to start discussion. It seems like you both did that.-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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This could be one of the most ridiculous things I've read, to put it bluntly.Crazy wrote:Oman is an experienced player, here, so he's not going to do something so obvious not-making-sense like that. Of course we're supposed to provide reasons for our votes, unless if this is AITP or something. I mean, that's the whole point of mafia. So I can assume that that's not what Oman meant. But since nobody can explain what he meant like he can, I think he should respond to this.
Crazy, Oman has already explained many times why he voted for me. What you're doing right now is saying that Oman's explanation for why he voted for me can't possibly be true because that would put him in a scummy light. You're starting from the assumption that Oman is an experienced player, which means he can't be scummy. From that assumption you've already drawn the conclusion that he's town, and now what you're doing is trying to go back and fit his actions to make sense as though he were town. You're even ignoringhis own explanationsfor his actions because they don't fit your preconceived notions.
In other words, rather than see Oman make a scummy action and then draw the conclusion that it's probably because he's scum, you're instead seeing Oman make a scummy action and fabricating reasoning for why he probably did that so that you can assume that he isn't scum. Please correct me if I'm wrong here, because that is truly absurd.
Here's my honest take on the situation. Oman voted for me under the guise of an "anecdotal scum tell" to hop on my already formed bandwagon. Oman did not expect to get seriously challenged on his vote, because it sounded good and sounded like a reasoned vote. Upon getting challenged though, it quickly became quite obvious that Oman had absolutely no real reason for thinking that I was scum and then took to trying to justify his vote ex post facto based on my aggressive response.
I don't see any pro-town motivation in Oman adding an additional vote to my bandwagon based on crap logic and then desperately clinging to that vote based on more crap logic after his original voting reasons were shown to be bad. The logical conclusion here is that he's scum. Your conclusion is that an experienced player would never do something like this, and thus he's town.
With that being said, I'm very highly considering moving my vote to Alvinz. Alvinz has been posting elsewhere on the site and is displaying the exact same posting style he had in Open 70, where he was scum. I would not be surprised in the least if he's lurking in this game specifically because he's scum and worried about getting caught. Call it lurker hunting if you wish, but in this case I think lurker = scum.-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Crazy, the entire point is that I don't think Oman expected to get challenged on his vote. He tossed out a vote with fancy reasoning and expected it to fly. Now he's in a hole.
I wouldn't be switching my well placed vote to bring out a lurker. I'd be switching my vote to lynch lurking scum. There's a difference between lurker hunting (trying to draw a lurker out to post more) and voting for a lurker because you think they're scum.Crazy wrote:Please, if you're worried about lurkers, tell the mod to prod him. Never switch your well-placed vote just to bring out a lurker.-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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I would say it's more likely that he would be Oman's partner actually. He hasn't commented a single time on Oman this entire game if I recall. Scum oftentimes ignore their partners. Edit: it looks like his only comment on Oman was that Oman's original point for voting me was weak, but didn't pursue it further.
Also, his defense of me came after the wagon on me had dissolved. It's hardly a defense if it comes after the fact.
Anyway, this speculation seems weak to me anyway. Netran's connections to either me or Oman don't mean anything unless me or Oman is dead. And Netran's reaction to us doesn't have any bearing on whether or not we are scum. It would be dumb to lynch either me or Oman under the premise thatifwe are scum then he'd make a good scum buddy.
Finally, I kind of disagree that he would have to be one of our scum buddies at all. He could simply be scum looking to avoid taking a stance either way. He can sit back and wait and see where opinion goes and then jump on whichever seems the better option.
Anyway, all this talk makes me want to go back and look through Netran again.-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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I read through the thread.
Oman is still my top target. Here is the flow of events:
1. He jumped on my bandwagon with crap logic.
2. I called him out on his crap logic.
3. He has completely ignored anything and everything related towards his original reasons for voting for me and whether or not he had a valid reason for voting me.
4. Instead, he has kept his vote on me, and when questioned he cites my reaction as his reason for the vote. This is a complete cover up. When questioned on his vote, he cites reasons thathadn't even happened yet when he initially voted for meas why his vote is on me, but continues to conveniently ignore anyone's requests for his original voting reasons and whether or not they are valid.
I'm pretty sure Oman got caught. He tried to further my bandwagon with crappy reasons, and rather than admit he was wrong, he has tried to weasel his way out of it by citing events that hadn't even happened yet as his voting reasons.
It's like this:
Oman: Vote Goat
Goat: WTF, why are you voting me?
Oman: Hah, over reaction, that's why I'm voting you.
As for Netran, I'm not sure. I think I'm actually more suspicious of Rage than Netran at this point. Don't be offended by this question, but is English your native language Netran?-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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The issue is that you're attacking me for acting like town under the premise that I'm scum trying to act like town. That completely ignores the more logical explanation that I'm town acting like town. Then i attack you for your illogical vote on me, and again you assume that I'm scum overreacting to pressure, completely ignoring the just as likely if not more likely explanation that I'm town aggressively defending myself against bad logic.-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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His vote on Crazy would be the main thing for me. Here is his reasoning:Netran wrote:What have you on Rage?
The issue is that this is a summary of events and not actual reasonsRage wrote:Expressed equal suspicion of both Oman and GR, but decided to vote for GR and later took it off when proven incorrect. Then he FoSed GR and took that off too. He did not consider other suspicions when pressuring GR, and didn't see GR's side until he had already taken a vote and FoS off of him. I want to know what Crazy thinks about why Goatrevolt is suspicious of Oman.whyhe thinks Crazy is scum. In other words, he put Crazy at 3 votes (L-2), but doesn't actually say anything to suggest that Crazy is scum. Bandwagon votes like this with weak or nonexistent reasoning definitely catch my eye.
Also, I find it interesting that Rage agreed with me about Oman, but then voted for Crazy and pressured Crazy for her stance on Oman. He mentions he agrees with me on Oman but just leaves it at that. No vote, or reasoning why he isn't voting for Oman. Instead he hops on the Crazy Train.
I also just have a gut feel about him based on some of the way he's worded some of his posts, but it's hard to elaborate more on that. I just get the feeling that he's trying to be careful not to step on any toes.-
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Crazy wrote:At least Oman did have an explanation that made sense. I don't agree with his "anecdotal scumtell at all," but at least he had more reasoning for his vote than GR gave him credit for.
Um...how could I give him credit for reasoning that didn't come until over 100 posts after the fact? Seriously, wow....Crazy wrote:Reasoning: Oman's post #155
First of all, that is his reasoning. Second of all, I think your defense of Oman is ridiculous.Crazy wrote:Non-reasoning: OMG YOU SAID WHY YOU WERE VOTING A PERSON! SCUM!
Play by play:
Goatrevolt: Oman's logic for thinking me scum is wrong.
Crazy: But if that was Oman's real logic then it would make him look like scum. Therefore it can't be his real logic.
Goatrevolt: Um...
Crazy: Come on Oman, tell them what your real reasons were.
Long Intermission:
Oman: Here are my reasons. They are the same as my original reasons, but I've given slightly more explanation to them.
Crazy: There you go. I can't believe you didn't see that Goat. You give Oman no credit.-
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I was wondering if that was going to happen.Oman wrote:Anyway, I can finally do what I've wanted to do for a while and that isUnvotewith a reason: basically, his play isn't anything like Cog City, where we were mafia together.
Anyway, I'm still somewhat suspicious of Oman, but right now I simply think Rage has a better shot of being scum, and thus I will
Unvote, Vote Rage
I'm still anxiously awaiting skitzer's analysis, and I still think there is a fairly decent chance that he's scum based solely on meta arguments against alvinz.-
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Rage! I wanted to see his response to my points against him.farside22 wrote:Rage has asked to be replaced. I will do as requested. Carry on
Maybe he's trying the tried and true "replacement defense" where he simply replaces out at the first sign of pressure and hopes it dissipates.
I wouldn't necessarily consider it much of an implicit declaration. Let's see what he's said here.Netran wrote:I think I will never vote anyone based only (I know you have other reasons) on this because I see it as an implicit declaration (and I use them too).
1. "Expressed equal suspicion of both Oman and GR, but decided to vote for GR and later took it off when proven incorrect." Lacking is any reasoning why these actions suggest Crazy is scum. Are scum the only ones who unvote upon being proven wrong? Are scum the ones who express equal suspicion of two players but end up voting for one?
2. "Then he FoSed GR and took that off too." Missing is any explanation why the FoS and take off is scummy.
3. "He did not consider other suspicions when pressuring GR, and didn't see GR's side until he had already taken a vote and FoS off of him." Is failure to take into account other suspicions a scum tell? Is failure to see someone's side a scum tell? You can argue that they were by suggesting that Crazy's behavior in these matters suggests a mindset of scum, but Rage did nothing of the sort.
My point is that he basically provided merely a summary of the events without any real indication or even implicit declarations of why those actions were scummy. This reeks to me of scum joining a bandwagon and faking reasons to be on it.
I mean, I could go through armlx's posts and say, "armlx first chose not to take a side in the GR/Oman debate. He later questioned Oman. Eventually he decided to vote for Oman despite originally not taking any sides" and then vote for armlx, but what am I really saying? I'm not showing how his actions are scummy, I'm merely just summarizing what he's done in a manner to suggest that I have legitimate reasons for that vote.-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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I want an analysis mostly so I can get your opinions to help my read on you. I'm not sure what you're really trying to imply by that statement...that I'm narcissistic and really just want everyone to focus on me?skitzer wrote:I find it weird how Goatrevolt wants an analysis when he knows he's likely to be the focus of it, based on the current pages.-
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@Crazy: Again you'll have to show me where I've straw manned the attack against me. He attacked me for "looking townie" by putting reasoning with my vote. I think my reaction to that vote was entirely justified.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I don't think Crazy is scum. His vote + unvote on me was certainly a suspicious action, but I've been leaning town on him from the rest of his play. His willingness to jump into any discussion and not be afraid to say what he thinks even if it's not the popular opinion gives me town vibes.
@iamausername: The "replacement defense" comment was mostly a joke. I say mostly because from my mafia experiences scum replace out more often than townies. Either way, I'm not going to use it as justification for pushing your case, and Rage mentioned he was on vacation in another game, so it's not much of an issue.
Also, you think Crazy/Oman are a scum team, however you think Crazy is scum partly because she is defending her scum buddy Oman. Doesn't it logically follow that you should then be voting for Oman, since that logic only holds up if Oman is actually scum?-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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I think Oman is correct regarding the circular argument bit, but I also think that this discussion is missing the point.
Oman, do you think that the first person to place a non-random vote is scummy if they provide reasoning for it, and not scummy if they don't provide reasoning? Isn't that almost contradictory, because if they don't provide reasoning, then how would we know it's a real vote and not just another random vote. Rage and Netran were both random voting additional players. If I voted armlx without reasoning, it would be assumed to be another random vote. If I vote armlx with reasoning, it becomes clear that it's a real vote.
This is false in so many ways. First of all, there are more people in this game than me. When I ask for your analysis on the game, that doesn't mean I'm asking you to give your opinion on me. You have yet to show where I'm asking you to focus on me. Secondly, what pressure on me?skitzer wrote:@armlx and Goatrevolt: What I'm trying to say is that Goatrevolt is under plenty of suspicion now, and he is trying to get more people to focus upon him?-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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His posts speak of a lack of desire to provide concrete opinions. Also, meta arguments from Alvinz play a big role here, which he can't answer but I still find meaningful.armlx wrote:
What have you seen from skitzer really?I really think rage and skitzer are scum. Maybe OGML, but I haven't seen enough there yet.
I also think Crazy is town, so I think the wagon on him is "an easy spot for scum to hide" if you ask me. Considering Rage/Skitzer are my top two, it doesn't surprise me they are hitching a ride on that Crazy Train.-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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The first part is basically my read on the situation. When I asked him to provide analysis, he chose to pressure my motivations for that analysis rather than actually do it. The meta argument is basically based on Open 70 where alvinz as scum lurked all game and most of his posts were basically just him promising rereads, which was pretty much the entirety of his contribution to this game. Also, he avoided posting in this game a lot while posting semi-frequently in other games on this site.armlx wrote:
Can you explain this?His posts speak of a lack of desire to provide concrete opinions. Also, meta arguments from Alvinz play a big role here, which he can't answer but I still find meaningful.-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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I completely disagree with almost the entirety of what Grimmy said. I would say this game is not at all going to play out like town v. town. The town wants to lynch scum, the SK and mafia both do not care who gets lynched as long as it's not them. Those are two completely different motivations for actions and thus we will be still be able to determine who is scum based on their actions. Is the scum going to try to blend in as town, of course. It's the same as any other mafia game. Trying to paint this game as a completely different form of mafia and then use it as a basis to toss suspicion around is enough for me toFoS Grimmy.
I'm still happy with my vote on Iamusername, and would also support switching to Sktizer if others wanted to go that way. Grimmy/OGML as of yet hasn't said enough for me to be willing to lynch him.-
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I agree with Crazy. I would prefer lynching Oman to no lynch, but I think we have a much higher chance of hitting scum with Iamusername. Those last two votes on Oman are enough to make me think it would be a poor lynch.
Look back through Rage/Iamusername. Rage's vote on Crazy was with weak or nonexistant reasoning as he hopped onto the already formed wagon. Iamusername's vote on Crazy and Oman (especially) could both be classified as self-preservation more so than an actual attempt at scumhunting.
Also, let's not forget about Skitzer. I think there's also a very strong chance he's scum. His contribution thus far to the game has been mostly to question my motives for asking him to provide opinions, rather than actually provide opinions.-
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I'm here. The Iamusername kill surprises me and I think is actually meaningful and not something to just dismiss as WIFOM. What exactly it means, I'm not positive yet. I need to think this through.
I think Skitzer is part of the mafia. His lack of concrete opinions suggests an unwillingness to provide information as to who his partner could be. I think his partner would be either Mencellator/Grimmy, and the other has a strong chance of being the SK.
Crazy I think is town by nature of Skitzer pushing her and Skitzer being my top mafia suspect.
Armlx I'm fairly neutral on. I don't see him as a strong suspect for either scum team but haven't really ruled him out for anything either.
My picks for the Serial Killer are basically: Grimmy/Mencelator/Armlx in that order of likelihood, although I'm a bit torn with which is more likely out of my top two choices.-
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It was actually based on a misinterpretation.Grimmy wrote:-Goatsters theory of my SK-edness
Basically, I'm trying to figure out who would kill Iamusername, who was a likely lynch target today. This stuff generally gets tossed aside as WIFOM, but who has the most to gain from such an action? I would argue that Grimmy has both something to gain and lose from it. To gain is the fact that he was being paired up as a mafia member with Iamusername and this would end that speculation, but he also loses in that he was a top suspect and with another top suspect gone he becomes a higher priority lynch target.
My guess right now is that Iamusername was killed for one of the following reasons:
1. Someone thought he gave off signs of being the FBI Agent.
2. Someone wasn't following the thread closely enough to realize he was under suspicion
3. The SK is someone relatively unsuspected who can afford to take out a top target and not have the noose fall around their neck next.
Honestly, I think the Iamusername kill points most closely to armlx. He was under no suspicion and thus wasn't directly putting himself in the crossfire by making a kill on a top suspect. By nature of him not being on the Iamusername case yesterday, he wouldn't be able to just easily jump back on today, which would have given less incentive to make that kill.
I'd like to review armlx. I find him terribly hard to evaluate, since most of his posts are fairly straightforward and logical, but don't ultimately give much towards evaluating his alignment. Either way, I think the Iamusername kill points mostly to him and I'd be interested in looking more into that.-
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I'm not sold on having the FBI agent come forward. If we lynch mafia, but not the SK today, it's in our best interest for the FBI agent to remain unknown. If we lynch Mafia today, and the FBI agent has come forward, then the serial killer is likely just going to take the easy shot and put us in a tough spot. We want the SK to hit the other mafia member, but that simply won't happen.
I propose that the FBI agent remains anonymous and only claims if either:
1. They are going to get lynched.
2. They investigated a player as not the SK who is going to get lynched.
3. They got a guilty. In that case, they should simply claim now.
armlx: As the only way to determine scum, yes it's dumb. Ignoring it is even more dumb though. People are night killed for a reason, thus it's rarely a good idea to throw it away as strictly WIFOM. Trying to figure out that reason is helpful.-
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Goatrevolt Pond Scum
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Yes, you could come up with reasons, but some reasons simply make more sense than others. Someone who is highly suspected has less motivation to kill another highly suspected player because it puts them more in the spotlight. Sure, it's possible that player killed IAUN anyway for other reasons, but I simply find it less likely.armlx wrote:Goat, my point is that given any player as SK, I could probably come up with a reason for them to kill IAUN. There's no way to ascribe a given reason to a specific kill barring in end game scenarios.
Thoughts on what I said about the FBI agent? The reason we want the FBI Agent to claim is to clear 2 people of being the SK. A better alternative is to have the FBI Agent only claim if one of those 2 people is going to be the lynch. That way, if we lynch mafia but not SK today, we still have a chance of the SK hitting mafia tonight.-
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Fixed that for you.Grimmy wrote:3 people say Goat is not the Sk
1 says Grimmy is not the SK
1 says Iam is not the Sk.
1 says Skitzer is not the SK.
I'm not sure how meaningful that information is. I'd like to be able to say that since 3 players said I'm not the SK that there's a 50% chance one of them is the FBI agent, thus clearing me, but that's not a very strong argument.
I'd like to just reread and see what I can pick up from that.-
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