Open 563 - Jungle Republic (Night 5~)

[Riddleton]

Hi. Please fill me in on all the important stuff while I catch up.

[Riddleton]

OK, Caught up:-

Fuzzybutternut

-Voted for

5 different people

over the course of the two days we're at.
-Has said many other people are scummy as well, such as wicked & me (sns). Do you have any town reads or is everyone acting scummy to you?
-Said I (sns) was town quite a lot through the game but flipped D2 and said "I was probscum, but not convinced" (#562)
-Did not vote Shaded/Titus D1. Says "Sns, let's lynch Shaded tomorrow, yes?" (#384) but does not follow through. Why?
-Verdict: Scummy (mafia).

Wicked

-Makes a huge case against fuzzy (#564) but says in the next post "I don't want to lynch [Fuzzy] today". Any reason why? Remember - we need to kill both scum teams so there's no point leaving one person alive if you are certain they are acting scummy.
-I think you're town though.
-Verdict: Town.

Bins

-I'm neutral. Makes some good town posts against pasch (#303) as well as other town motivated posts (#584) but also tends to buddy on wagons a bit too early (#76) as well as make a few filler posts. If you are scum you would be a WW because of Pasch's #232.
-Hammered Titus in #504.
-What do you think about Fuzzy?
-Verdict: Null

The Bulge

-Blames eloquence for his wagon (#277). I think that's a scummy move -- I don't see any town motivation in throwing your toys away because you are going to be lynched?
-Reacted very strangely and defensively when had one vote on him. (#250)
-Softclaimed Seer which I think is rubbish. I'm fairly certain (90%) sure who the real seer is and it's not you.
-Verdict: Scum. Probably WW.

Desperado

-Doesn't contribute much when posting. Please be more active.
-Verdict: Null

Not Mafia

-Good pregame play. Defended Reinoe where he was town.
-Made good contributive town posts later on. I think you're town.
-Verdict: Town

Splash

-Made a grandiose number of posts since replacing - 6. But the posts he has made look towny to me. (#555)
-Not reading Maru as he admitted he was not interested.
-You look town to me. Please be more active, though.
Verdict: Lean Town.

Pasch

-Possible buddying with Fuzzy in #232?
-#232 is bullshit in general and is a really bad set of reads. No quotes/posts to back it up in sight; seems to be in more of a personal level.
-Verdict: Scum - Mafia.

Unsight

-You've been contributive to the game since replacing. Has a good set of reads in #545
-
--

VOTE: Fuzzybutternut

[Riddleton]

I would rather lynch fuzzy as he is my strongest read. I am also prepared to lynch The Bulge as well.

[Riddleton]

but would rather lynch a WW at this moment.

Alright, we can lynch a WW today (Bulge). I'm pretty certain Bulge will flip scum now that I reread his ISO.

VOTE: Bulge

[Riddleton]

I think this is the current votecount:-

The Bulge (4) - Not_Mafia, Riddleton, Paschendale, Unsight

L-2

Unsight (1) - fuzzybutternut
Desperado (1) - TheBulge

[Riddleton]

I think he was refering to me before I switched my vote to TheBulge.

[Riddleton]

The only reason I did that was because I wasn't entirely confident TheBulge was WW and preferred Fuzzy as a lynch as I knew at least he was scum if not WW. I would say I am certain he would flip WW now.

[Riddleton]

Wicked

, can you explain you do not see either of TheBulge or Pasch as scum?

[Riddleton]

^ and which of your reads do you think are WWs?

[Riddleton]

Hm, you've convinced me with your unsight case. Let me read over his posts/ISO again before I revote, though.

[Riddleton]

However, neither time does Unsight actually analyze it. E.g. he never says that I could be Bulge's partner for not voting him, even though that's the subtle implication. 'Trivia' is pointless when you don't make use of it.

But it's fairly obvious Unsight meant that.


Well I think some of your points are valid Wicked (point #2) but others aren't.

[Riddleton]

I still think TheBulge is the better lynch choice. Here's what will happen:-
-If TheBulge flips WW, Wicked would likely be WW. Unsight could also

potentially

be WW too
-If TheBulge flips town, Wicked would likely be town.
-If TheBulge flips mafia, we wouldn't get any other information (unlikely).

My reasons for him are in #599. I'm sure he'd flip WW and I think it's the safer choice in general. There are 3 WWs and we could get two of them from that.

[Riddleton]

I just don't like how Wicked keeps saying TheBulge is completely clear. Sure, he's not as scummy as Fuzzy is acting but he's not exactly acting townlike either. I don't know; just think it's unusual that's all

[Riddleton]

I think the Bulge and Wicked are the same alignment anyway ^

[Riddleton]

To be honest at this point it's mostly gut. It just makes more sense to me if they're the same alignment.

[Riddleton]

If TheBulge is town, Wicked's statement just comes across as a very strong town read. If flip scum, wicked's statement looks like buddying.
That's the way I see it. It's a loose conclusion but I can't see it where they have different alignments

[Riddleton]

@3 WWs that was a mistake. I know there's 3 mafia but I saod 3 WWs there for some reasom. I blame tiredness

[Riddleton]

Looking over this page, Riddleton's 650 is complete bullshit and so is NM's 667.

How so?

[Riddleton]

I told you, I messed up with that post. I know there's only 2 WWs but I put 3 by accident. I meant to put "There are 2 WWs and we could potentially get all of them from that".

1. Why would Bulge flipping WW likely mean Wicked is WW? Do you really think Wicked would protect his partner that much?

I think so. Wicked is a defensive player -- he has admitted to that himself. I think it is a plausible conclusion that we could perceive Wicked is WW is Bulge flips WW.

2. Why is Wicked almost cleared with a Bulge town flip? I think it could easily swing either way.

See above. I just think from his posts they are of a similar alignment.

3. Why does a mafia flip give us NO info? That's just an odd statement to make.

I forgot why I put that. To be honest, I don't know.

[Riddleton]

That post was caused by tiredness and IRL stress. I wasn't making much sense there hence why it was worded a bit strange and didn't make much sense.

[Riddleton]

Bins

, why did you vote desperado? Do you think he'll flip scum because of his inactivity?

[Riddleton]

I would also like

Bulge

to address why he think NM's 667 is "bullshit", too.

[Riddleton]

I do not see why you would vote Desperado otherwise. He has barely contributed.

[Riddleton]

Id rather have a nm lynch than a desp lynch

[Riddleton]

Sorry to hear about that wicked

[Riddleton]

Riddleton you are too easily influenced. You first posted after my Unsight case and said that I'd convinced you. Then Unsight and Not_Mafia comment and suddenly you think only one of my five points is good, it now seems that you've abandoned my case.

-I first said "You convinced me

at first

, but I'll rereadf his posts/ISO myself before I revote"
-I look through his postys and establish that I don't think some of your points are valid
-Therefore I'm too easily influenced..?

[Riddleton]

Town players are never sure of their votes. Not without cop results or the like. Town players always know that they could be wrong.

I like this post. Seems pro-town

[Riddleton]

I agree with NM in #704. There's more to the Bulge case than the softclaim

[Riddleton]

@NM's #702: Wicked's IIOA is correct but misguided. In the strictest sense it'd count but in reality it's obvious what Unsight is implying with the Wicked case. I consider it a null tell.

[Riddleton]

^ I think that's a bit strange how he'd say that's a scumtell though.

[Riddleton]

Filler post. Will provide thoughts tonight

[Riddleton]

You would know your own teammates wouldn't you?

[Riddleton]

[Riddleton]

Unsight AND TheBulge were innocent? That's surprising. o_0

I'll have to give this thread a reread and then I'll post my thoughts on whom I feel is the most likely to be a WW.

[Riddleton]

First I'm town so your claim is bullshit, desperado.

[Riddleton]

I don't think you should have cc'ed wicked. It was obvious he was lying anyway.

[Riddleton]

vote: desperado

[Riddleton]

Darn it.

[Riddleton]

We're in MyLo so we need to kill a mafioso today.

VOTE: Fuzzy

[Riddleton]

Or maybe not. WW would kill fuzzy to prevent a win.

Will revisit this one later with a plan and some rereads.

[Riddleton]

I would feel safer lynching Fuzzy. Mafia are the biggest threat at the moment as they outnumber WWs. We can worry about finding the last WW tomorrow.

[Riddleton]

Fuzzy is pretty much certain mafia and the safest option for a lynch.

[Riddleton]

I like Fuzzy + Pasch as mafia, plus Not_mafia as WW.

[Riddleton]

We can't gamble who's WW though. If we mislynch, we're leaving it upto the WWs to hit mafia. We lose if they crapshoot.

[Riddleton]

He is.

[Riddleton]

Alright, let's work it out...

Current Ratio: 3T vs 2M vs 1W

Here is every option. Lynching Fuzzy options vs not lynching fuzzy options

Lynch Fuzzy Options

Fuzzy flips mafia

-Fuzzy (mafia) and some one else (final mafia) will die. Ratio: 3T vs 1W
-Fuzzy (mafia) and some one else (town) will die. Ratio: 2T vs 1W vs 1M

Fuzzy flips town

-Fuzzy (town) and some one else (mafia) dies: Ratio: 2T vs 1W vs 1M
-Fuzzy (town) and some one else (town) dies: Mafia win.

Not Lynching Fuzzy

Other person flips mafia

-Other person (mafia) and some one else (mafia) dies: Ratio 3T vs 1W
-Other person (mafia) and some one else (town) dies; Ratio 2T vs 1W vs 1M

Other person flips WW

-Other person (WW) dies: Ratio: 3T vs 2M

Other person flips town

-Other person (town) and some one else (mafia) dies: Ratio 2T vs 1W vs 1M
-Other person (town) and some one else (town) dies: Mafia win

[Riddleton]

I would prefer lynching the mafia as:-
a) takes pressure of us (don't have to worry about losing)
b) We can use the seer's information tomorrow to determine the WW once we're in better shape and are not one mislynch away from losing

[Riddleton]

Lynching Fuzzy is also a huge safetynet in the rare offchance he actually isn't mafia. WW would shoot the next most likely suspect.

Otherwise if we mislynch a townie and Fuzzy is town as well, we lose as I said. Lynching fuzzy caters for worst case scenario if he isn't mafia. He very likely is (99.999%) but it also covers the situation where he isn't. Do you understand?

[Riddleton]

Realistically, but lynching Fuzzy is the safest. In this situation, the safest option is best.

[Riddleton]

But it works even if Fuzzy isn't scum, Bins.

[Riddleton]

ie. we wouldn't lose because then WWs can lynch the next most likely suspect. Every part of this plan -- no matter what we do -- rests on Fuzzy being mafia. If that's wrong we lose, except in the situation where we kill fuzzy

[Riddleton]

There's no "gamble" here; we effectively get two shots to sort out who is mafia. If we get one wrong (say you are town), the WWs have another chance to find the mafia so they do not win.

No lynching sucks. I'm not no lynching.

[Riddleton]

How do we get more information if we no lynch today? We have no seer and we lose one important brain. 3 townies are better than 2, 2 are better than 1. Our situation is more flexible as it is now. Why the fuck do you want to no lynch?

[Riddleton]

I know you're mafia but at least try and not make it so obvious

[Riddleton]

what

[Riddleton]

you want 2 vs 2 vs 1? so you're basically scumclaiming?

[Riddleton]

if we no lynch, we're doomed (well, not you as you're mafia):-
2 vs 2 vs 1:-
-Kill WW: 2 vs 2 (mafia win)
-Kill town: 1 vs 2 vs 1 (mafia win)
-Kill mafia 2 vs 1 vs 1 (LyLo)

fantastic

[Riddleton]

Great plan doc! Let's no lynch!

UNVOTE:

VOTE: No lynch

[Riddleton]

Oh wait, I've got my brain back now!

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Fuzzy

[Riddleton]

no lynching gives 3/5 chance (60%) for mafia to win

[Riddleton]

hint: I'm not mafia so I don't want to no lynch

[Riddleton]

There's no "gamble" here; we effectively get two shots to sort out who is mafia. If we get one wrong (say you are town), the WWs have another chance to find the mafia so they do not win.

No lynching sucks. I'm not no lynching.

"Let's put towns fate into WW's hands."

Yeah, no. Sorry buddy. That's not a town mindset.

hypocrite

[Riddleton]

I mean, how deep do you want to dig your own grave?

[Riddleton]

if you think my logic is shit then don't dance around and vote for me already.

[Riddleton]

but it's a hell of a lot better than "Don't leave fate in WWs, but let's leave fate in WWs by PRAYING TO GOD they lynch mafia".

[Riddleton]

Pasch, I already wrote a case for Fuzzy. I'll give you the link

[Riddleton]

here

-----
I'll paste it here too

Fuzzybutternut

-Voted for 5 different people over the course of the two days we're at.
-Has said many other people are scummy as well, such as wicked & me (sns). Do you have any town reads or is everyone acting scummy to you?
-Said I (sns) was town quite a lot through the game but flipped D2 and said "I was probscum, but not convinced" (#562)
-Did not vote Shaded/Titus D1. Says "Sns, let's lynch Shaded tomorrow, yes?" (#384) but does not follow through. Why?
-Verdict: Scummy (mafia).

[Riddleton]

@mod: limited access until the 7th. Will still check in once per day

[Riddleton]

I think it's safer to kill mafia. If we have to kill a WW though I agree NM is probably the most likrly

[Riddleton]

VOTE: not mafia

[Riddleton]

I think it's safer to kill mafia. If we have to kill a WW though I agree NM is probably the most likrly

You're incredibly dense. I want you to know that.

thanks

[Riddleton]

[Riddleton]

What was your case on Riddleton again, NM?

You tell me. You're the one he's bussing

Avoiding a question

[Riddleton]

Let's all vote NM then we can go home.

[Riddleton]

You're half right.

[Riddleton]

Where is your case on me, NM?

[Riddleton]

I don't like your random aggression on Fuzzy today and you hopped off that wagon too easily so I think you were bussing + early sns stuff.

I agree with others in that you (WW) is a safer lynch than mafia. I hopped off the wagon as yours is better.
I don't bus or buddy or anything as scum; I do my own thing. I certainly wouldn't bus someone who is practically confirmed scum. I'm not an idiot (surprisingly)!

[Riddleton]

fuzzy and pasch mafia
nm ww

[Riddleton]

Good for you.

[Riddleton]

[Riddleton]

I've no objections to lynching Fuzzy.

[Riddleton]

I'm still OK with fuzzy being lynched.

[Riddleton]

Alright.

VOTE: Fuzzy

[Riddleton]

I'm almost certain it's fuzzy and pasch. To be honest, I think it should be obvious at this point. I didn't post earlier as I didn't have anything constructive to add.

[Riddleton]

or so it seems

[Riddleton]

I have contributed earlier on though, in all seriousness. I've just gotten lazy is all.

[Riddleton]

I'm glad both of my scum reads are quick to pick the low hanging fruit and say I'm scummy when basically your only point against me is this supposed 'bussimg' with fuzzy.

[Riddleton]

We need all votes on fuzzy. Then pasch tomorrow.

[Riddleton]

I wish wicked were still in this game because this fucking day round would be over by now

[Riddleton]

It's obvious who the scum are, and they're coasting through this game. Aegor bins and I are obviously not scum. It shoupd be crystsl clear

[Riddleton]

Morons. Fine, whatever, I don't care anymore. If you want to lose the game that badly then go ahead

VOTE: Riddleton

[Riddleton]

You're all idiots. You'll see I am town and then y'all be like "holy shit i was right all along"

[Riddleton]

Aegor is fucking town. What part of that don't you get?

[Riddleton]

Read my iso you derps

[Riddleton]

PoE

[Riddleton]

I'm certain of you and pasch's alignment therefpre aegor and bins are town.

[Riddleton]

Go on vote for me fuzzy, you know you want to!

[Riddleton]

VOTE: fuzzy

[Riddleton]

I"m a risky person. Deal with it

[Riddleton]

fuzzy, scum had time to hammer you yesterday and today. For that reason, one of you is probably scum.

DING DING! We have a winner

[Riddleton]

No, I can't find it. I'm not sure why, but when I look at "my topics", a lot of my games don't show up. I don't remember what the name of the game was, but Aegor replaced in early on, and my partner had been really derelict and generally a liability. He played better, but there was very little coordination of any kind. This is only to impeach his contention of "always". Maybe he played that game differently. I don't know.

Aegor: Can you verify the game actually exists which he's talking about, or is pasch making it up?

Looking back, Splashcloud's only real contribution was to try to push pressure away from SNS (now Riddleton), which definitely suggests that the could be partners. Klick did nothing. Maruchan went for the easy wagons and took no risks at all. There is very little reason to townread this slot.

You're scumreading someone based on how some lazy people (OK, I fall into this crowd too, but at leaswt I'm admitting it) contributed in the game.

[Riddleton]

Aegor, would you be willing to join me on Fuzzy, or would you prefer lynch Pasch first? I'm fine with either order but would prefer Fuzzy first.

[Riddleton]

I'm even trying to be remotely helpful now for y'all, go me

[Riddleton]

Pasch, vote me.

[Riddleton]

pretty please? <3

[Riddleton]

You're scumreading someone based on how some lazy people (OK, I fall into this crowd too, but at leaswt I'm admitting it) contributed in the game.

I'd be disappointed if you weren't protecting your buddy here.

Oops.

[Riddleton]

OK, well my plan was to try and guide Pasch into voting me, then we can all confirm that no one will be quickhammering me because both votes on me on scum. A bit disappointed it didn't work, but at least it reveals some more information. I agree with Aegor that he'll holding back votes so he can quickhammer.

If you're town, you seriously need to stop talking as if every post has a malicious intent behind it like you're trying to shape your appearance. If you're scum, continue, because it's helping me read you
It feels like you're playing too scummy to be scum up too much and I have no idea how the fuck to read it so stop thanks be more genuine

Alright.

[Riddleton]

PASCH FREAKING CALLED FUZZY TOWN YESTERDAY

They're townreading each other when they have literally no reason and basis for it. It's dumb yes, but they're newbscum.


I don't know why you're townreading pasch. Do you think his reluctannce to vote so he can quickhammer seems suspicious to you?

[Riddleton]

also if you want to townread pasch and are more confident with fuzzy,why not vote him then?

[Riddleton]

I just can't fathom scum just asking for permission to quickhammer.

he's really that stupid, seriously!

[Riddleton]

Why do you think I'm scum again, anyway? I forgot. Unless they're similar reasons to Fuzzy's 'case', I don't think I remember you actually posting a case against me. Either way, I'd appreciate it as it's be insightful to know why there's a barrier of trust. Obviously a bad thing, especially in LyLo, and ghves the scum (fuzzy and pasch) an excuse to coast through the game.

[Riddleton]

also if you want to townread pasch and are more confident with fuzzy,why not vote him then?

Because I don't trust you and Aegor?!

Voting someone shouldn't be about your associative trust withn someone else who's also voting -- it should be done through your own deduction, reasoning and logic that the person is scum.

[Riddleton]

Riddleton is scum because he's been playing very defensively. His objective has been to survive. He's avoided going on a limb at any point during the game. Likewise, in 600 posts, his reads haven't changed. He's calling the same people scum and the same people town as he was at the beginning of day 2. There's been no evolution of reads. No new information that has apparently penetrated his mind. Not to mention, of his three scumreads during this game, one was Bulge who was universally scumread and lynched with no help at all from Riddleton, but the other and me and Fuzzy. Before today, he has expended barely any effort to get us lynched. We're still here, alive and well, and scumhunting. He can't manage to make a compelling case. His tactics are indicative of a long game survival strategy, which is what scum has to do in this setup.

@Bins: I feel entirely comfortable voting for a Riddleton/Aegor scumteam. You've read my reasons. Do you want to discuss anything? Are you ready to vote? Which one do you feel more strongly about?

I didn't ask you; I asked Bins. The reason I'm calling the same people scum is because the same people

are

scum. Roles do not change mid-game. I receieved a VT PM when I replaced in, and I'm pretty sure I'm still a VT now! Someone's reads changing is not indicative of being town. My reads are just too good for you to handle

[Riddleton]

@Bins: I feel entirely comfortable voting for a Riddleton/Aegor scumteam. You've read my reasons. Do you want to discuss anything? Are you ready to vote? Which one do you feel more strongly about?

Then vote for me then, instead of holding back for the hammer. Scum.

[Riddleton]

like, you've thought I was scum throughout the whole game but all you say is "Riddle is scum! I won't vote him though, all in good time"

[Riddleton]

If you think I'm scum, then awesome. But have the gumption to follow through on your threat. Otherwise you'll look even more scum in retaliation.

[Riddleton]

Hint: you're screwed either way. If you don't vote, you look scummy. If you do, Aegor and Bins can confirm themselves as town and then we either have:
1) both fuzzy and pasch are scum
2) one of fuzzy or pasch is scum, and I am scum too

[Riddleton]

You and Bins should both post after pasch votes to confirm yourselves innocent

[Riddleton]

Pasch please vote first.

[Riddleton]

I'm happy fro Pasch to put me to L-1 because it'd generate information. I'm 100%, no, 200% certain it's fuzzy/pasch so pasch voting me would confirm Bins & Aegor innocent.

[Riddleton]

Bins shouldn't put me to L-1 because then we've lost the game as soon as pasch quickhammers.

[Riddleton]

So please don't derpvote Bins. I know you think I'm scum here (I'm not, but whatever), but at least listen to me here, if not anywhere else.

[Riddleton]

anything of merit

[Riddleton]

Aegor, I'm less certain of, but I'm still pretty sure the scum team is Riddleton/Aegor. I really really really can't see Riddleton/anyone else. It just doesn't make sense.

So your scumread of Aegor is based on PoE?

[Riddleton]

pasch you are the worst villager ever

[Riddleton]

Bins GG

[Riddleton]

*sneeze*

[Riddleton]

Nah, no hard feelings. It's just a game after all!

[Riddleton]

I'm surprised. :/