Open 563 - Jungle Republic (Night 5~)

[Riddleton]

We can't gamble who's WW though. If we mislynch, we're leaving it upto the WWs to hit mafia. We lose if they crapshoot.

[Bins]

I thought you said Fuzzy was certainly mafia?

[Riddleton]

He is.

[Riddleton]

Alright, let's work it out...

Current Ratio: 3T vs 2M vs 1W

Here is every option. Lynching Fuzzy options vs not lynching fuzzy options

Lynch Fuzzy Options

Fuzzy flips mafia

-Fuzzy (mafia) and some one else (final mafia) will die. Ratio: 3T vs 1W
-Fuzzy (mafia) and some one else (town) will die. Ratio: 2T vs 1W vs 1M

Fuzzy flips town

-Fuzzy (town) and some one else (mafia) dies: Ratio: 2T vs 1W vs 1M
-Fuzzy (town) and some one else (town) dies: Mafia win.

Not Lynching Fuzzy

Other person flips mafia

-Other person (mafia) and some one else (mafia) dies: Ratio 3T vs 1W
-Other person (mafia) and some one else (town) dies; Ratio 2T vs 1W vs 1M

Other person flips WW

-Other person (WW) dies: Ratio: 3T vs 2M

Other person flips town

-Other person (town) and some one else (mafia) dies: Ratio 2T vs 1W vs 1M
-Other person (town) and some one else (town) dies: Mafia win

[Riddleton]

I would prefer lynching the mafia as:-
a) takes pressure of us (don't have to worry about losing)
b) We can use the seer's information tomorrow to determine the WW once we're in better shape and are not one mislynch away from losing

[Riddleton]

Lynching Fuzzy is also a huge safetynet in the rare offchance he actually isn't mafia. WW would shoot the next most likely suspect.

Otherwise if we mislynch a townie and Fuzzy is town as well, we lose as I said. Lynching fuzzy caters for worst case scenario if he isn't mafia. He very likely is (99.999%) but it also covers the situation where he isn't. Do you understand?

[Bins]

Yeah, so lynching WW would realistically be best, but it all depends on how confident we are.

[Bins]

See, you're talking like I think Fuzzy is confscum. I'm not as certian as you.

[Riddleton]

Realistically, but lynching Fuzzy is the safest. In this situation, the safest option is best.

[Riddleton]

But it works even if Fuzzy isn't scum, Bins.

[Bins]

But it works even if Fuzzy isn't scum, Bins.

What do you mean

it works

?

[Riddleton]

ie. we wouldn't lose because then WWs can lynch the next most likely suspect. Every part of this plan -- no matter what we do -- rests on Fuzzy being mafia. If that's wrong we lose, except in the situation where we kill fuzzy

[fuzzybutternut]

ie. we wouldn't lose because then WWs can lynch the next most likely suspect. Every part of this plan -- no matter what we do -- rests on Fuzzy being mafia. If that's wrong we lose, except in the situation where we kill fuzzy

wat

You're willing to take a gamble on town losing when we could simply not lynch anyone and go into tomorrow with more information than we had today?

Where's the town motivation behind that?

[Riddleton]

There's no "gamble" here; we effectively get two shots to sort out who is mafia. If we get one wrong (say you are town), the WWs have another chance to find the mafia so they do not win.

No lynching sucks. I'm not no lynching.

[Riddleton]

How do we get more information if we no lynch today? We have no seer and we lose one important brain. 3 townies are better than 2, 2 are better than 1. Our situation is more flexible as it is now. Why the fuck do you want to no lynch?

[Riddleton]

I know you're mafia but at least try and not make it so obvious

[fuzzybutternut]

There's no "gamble" here; we effectively get two shots to sort out who is mafia. If we get one wrong (say you are town), the WWs have another chance to find the mafia so they do not win.

No lynching sucks. I'm not no lynching.

"Let's put towns fate into WW's hands."

Yeah, no. Sorry buddy. That's not a town mindset.

[Riddleton]

what

[Riddleton]

you want 2 vs 2 vs 1? so you're basically scumclaiming?

[Riddleton]

if we no lynch, we're doomed (well, not you as you're mafia):-
2 vs 2 vs 1:-
-Kill WW: 2 vs 2 (mafia win)
-Kill town: 1 vs 2 vs 1 (mafia win)
-Kill mafia 2 vs 1 vs 1 (LyLo)

fantastic

[Riddleton]

Great plan doc! Let's no lynch!

UNVOTE:

VOTE: No lynch

[Riddleton]

Oh wait, I've got my brain back now!

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Fuzzy

[fuzzybutternut]

Why the fuck do you want to no lynch?

Lynching today risks us losing two townies. *TWO TOWNIES* Do you follow that? See how many townies are alive right now? *3*
Know what happens if two townies die? Town loses.

[Riddleton]

no lynching gives 3/5 chance (60%) for mafia to win

[Riddleton]

hint: I'm not mafia so I don't want to no lynch