Mini #682: C9++ (Game Over!)

[CF Riot]

CF Riot – seems reasonable. However, he has not made any accusations directly against anyone. Most of his posts consist of questions to others, replying to questions, observations, or speculation about the setup. I’d like to see more regarding his opinions about other players.

I am suspicious of: CF Riot for not rocking the boat.

That's fair. I am unsure, and I don't see any strong tells yet, which some people claim to see. There has been lots to comment on, but it's hard to separate the incriminating scum-move from the innocent-yet-odd-move. As has been said, it's only page 4 (now 5) so I can't tell what stands out the most. My LoS would be as follows:

1) Kairyuu : Seems over-the-top. Very confident in his reads, when (personal opinion) I don't think the evidence is strong enough to support his case(s). He also looks like he's attacking easy targets. Germy is obvious. The whole thing with Afatchic was based on his opinion changing slightly over time, but the change matched the content posted in that time frame, and Afatchic has only been a member since Aug. of this year. Edify had 1 post, which said, "I like random voting, I'm going to random even though some info has surfaced." Also only been a member since Sep. 29th.

2) Sekinj - You refused to respond to SpringLullaby's vote. I think that given the chance, scum like to ignore accusations that they believe won't gain support, rather than try to refute them and consequently draw more attention to the matter. I caught a scum in my first game this way, with a prying question over a very small issue. He refused to respond because a few people had said the question was unfair, and it turned out he was scum.

3) ChuckNorris : Confuses me. That's really all I have on him. Something seems shady about him but I really have no hard evidence. He seems very middle of the road, sort of like the guy who just nods along no matter what exactly has been said, and I find that to be a tell, but at this point he could very easily just actually agree with everyone.

I wouldn't vote Sekinj or CN at this point because what I have is weak. I'll

Vote: Kairyuu

to take a stance. I'd like more info before a lynch however.

[sekinj]

Sekinj, who would you like to vote for?

yo mama



-not really. I want to see more of how people react. then I'll vote. thanks for asking.

[sekinj]

2) Sekinj - You refused to respond to SpringLullaby's vote. I think that given the chance, scum like to ignore accusations that they believe won't gain support, rather than try to refute them and consequently draw more attention to the matter. I caught a scum in my first game this way, with a prying question over a very small issue. He refused to respond because a few people had said the question was unfair, and it turned out he was scum.

I responded as soon as I realized spring was serious. I actually did think it was just a random vote. she even admitted that it was 'partially' a random vote, whatever that is.

@spring: lol - I'm goign to just chalk that up to a random vote and ignore it.

Why the 'lol', what do you find humorous? Do you not agree with what I said?

What would you do if it wasn't a random vote?

It isn't quite.

Please read this and let me know how I was supposed to take that seriously? "It isn't quite"?? her initial vote has zero reasoning and she follows it up with this.

I didn't understand her reasoning for attacking a passing comment. I was simply promoting general scumhunting rather than random voting. I wasn't trying to make any statements about my play or anyone else's play at that point in the game.

[mykonian]

I could, and I can still see why sakinj reacted like this. But you are wrong with your analysis about me. Germy attacked 3 players, and I was one off them. The person I voted for was the second, and in your debate with springlullaby I could see your point, and thought spring's actions questionable. So 2 of the three germy picked out, where already suspicious to me. I didn't follow him, maybe he followed me.

[iamausername]

Votecount #4!

sekinj (2) - springlullaby, Nightwolf
afatchic (2) - Kairyuu, Artem
Kairyuu (2) - afatchic, CF Riot
germy (1) - Scigatt
Scigatt (1) - mykonian
mykonian (1) - germy

Not Voting (3) - alvinz95, ChuckNorris, sekinj

7 to lynch.

-=Scigatt replaces Edify=-

[mykonian]

unvote scigatt, vote afatchic

[sekinj]

@sekinj: I agree wholeheartledly that I am agressive; but rash? Seriously? Also, where have I gotten frusterated when someone pointed out a mistake I made. The only one that someone pointed out to me was the numbers I misinterpreted from germy's first post, and I had no problem with it. If you are referring to the times when Artem 'pointed out my mistakes' then you really need to look them over again. Artem has attacked me for things that

he

misinterpreted repeatedly.

And where exactly do I misrepresent people in my posts at all, let alone frequently? If you are going to accuse me of something, then you had better be prepared to back that up with evidence.

You seemed to get VERY annoyed when anyone brought up the numbers thing again. I wasn't talking about the Artem thing, if you look at my commentary on him I mention that it was a good discussion (in fact the only one he has had besides setup mumbo jumbo).

I think the biggest victim of misrep right now is afatchic. I don't feel like you are representing my comments correctly either, but maybe I havn't been clear enough. in any case, I'd like to see what clarification afatchic can bring.

[ChuckNorris]

I haven't got time now, but when I do, which hould be soon, I'll re-read and give you all my opinions. I guess I shulda been paying more attention.

[CF Riot]

@Sekinj: I understand your stance completely. That's why I said it's not a strong tell, and why I wouldn't vote you right now, even if I wasn't suspicious of Kairyuu. I never thought there was anything wrong with your original statement at all, but when Spring said there was, I expected you to answer right away. Your delay is what struck me as out of place. I can see innocent reasoning behind your reactions just as easily as scum motive, but that doesn't erase my suspicion altogether.

unvote scigatt, vote afatchic

Why?

[afatchic]

I think the biggest victim of misrep right now is afatchic. I don't feel like you are representing my comments correctly either, but maybe I havn't been clear enough. in any case, I'd like to see what clarification afatchic can bring.

QFT seems like everytime i post something i get ganged up on by about 4 people. busy week of classes, but ill try to catch up tonight.

[iamausername]

-=alvinz95 has been prodded for the first time=-

[Scigatt]

Hi, just reading over the thread. Hope to make a post with content later today.

Just in case.

Unvote

[mykonian]

unvote scigatt, vote afatchic

Why?

Nice case against afatic. I got the feeling that he was defending a towny to not look like scum when germy would be lynched. It made me suspicious that he didn't do it with valid reasons. And his not thinking ahead is indeed a major scum tell. He says a backup role isn't that important now, but that role is just as important as a cop or a doc when such a person dies. Every town that is lynched or NK'ed is bad for town, and loosing power roles is even worse, no matter if they are backup roles!

However, my vote is on Edify, and I won't get it off him until he explains his vote. therefore:

FoS afatchic

.

ps nightwolf: I have no problems with that amount off posts, if you keep them this long.

Let's see, the case against afatchic. Then it seems I actually did something, and it may clear up something.

post 35: likes germy's claim, says germy wouldn't be a good NK, following me in that. He also thinks millers should claim, and also likes random voting. this post is typical, because 3 out of 5 sentences have the word also in the start, and the first agrees with germy. Afatchic has little thoughts of himself...

post 44: still likes germys claim, still thinks millers should claim, doesn't like people attacking germy. says it doesn't matter if germy gets NK, backup is plain vanilla till the real power role dies.

post 64: still likes germys claim, defends against accusation that he was just latching on and backing off when germy went under fire. Doesn't like how he is called a good lynch.

post 70: defends against the accusation that he knows how many scum there are. says to artem:

so yeah i think you had the same thought process that i went through.

also he didn't remove his random vote, whether that had to do that the random vote was on the person that made a case against him, or not, I don't know, but I see my greatest suspect. He is too much defending a towny, for little reason: (he defends a likely bad play), he is looking a lot for buddys, and has no real opinion apart from defending germy and defending himself.

confirm FoS afatchic

. As soon as I know that Edify can't give me any answer, or gives me a reasonable answer, I'm going to vote afatchic.

My vote on Edify has no use anymore, so I'm moving to my biggest suspect, for reasons above. The way I read afatchic's posts can be wrong, like sekinj says, but could he explain to me where I'm wrong, and how? Till then, I think I have a well reasoned vote.

[Artem]

@Artem: Do you actually read what I write before you make your misguided assumptions? It really doesn't seem like you do.

There is no instead of. We should not assume that the scum will or will not night kill somebody because all it does is lead to WIFOM.

In this particular case, we don't know if Germy is scum and if we start to assume that he will not be a night kill target because of his claim, then we're effectively getting into a mindset where it's ok for Germy-scum to survive each night.

(I'm using <player name>-scum and <player name>-townie to differentiate between different scenarios.)

Bolded: Please point out when I said

anything

about that.

Please try to comprehend this, as I'm making it as simple as possible. In any 12 person game with 3 scum the situation is that the scum have 12 players, minus 3 scum, minus 1 lynch, townies to choose from for a NK. If germy is scum, and he successfully gets even 1 townie to claim like he did then that gives the scum options. They can choose to kill the one who claimed, and guarentee that they hit a power role, even if it is a backup, or they can Go after one of the remaining townies, with

improved odds to hit a power role

. If germy is town, then the scum are

already in that position

with the chance to improve it if someone else claims too.

Do

you

read what

I

write? Yes, the scum can either choose to kill the claim or kill one of the remaining townies. (DUH!) That adds up to twelve minus mafia and lynch. There is no "instead of".

How am I giving afatchic the benefit of the doubt? All I've done so far is quizzed him about his statement that scum know 1/4th of the roles. What thin air do you pull that stuff out of?

This is where you give him the benefit of the doubt (same post where you call me out on my numbers):

After thinking about it, I agree that it makes sense

for there to be 3 scum, because either Germy is a townie and is telling the truth or if he was scum, he wouldn't be fishing for back-up roles knowing there were only two mafia (which would mean the setup doesn't have back-up roles).

See it now?

....and the rest of the post says:

But the fact wasn't immediately apparent to me. So, when afatchic says that scum know 1/4th of the roles, is that because he went through the same logic as me? Or is that because he believes Germy? Or is that because he knows there are 3 scum?

How does my arriving to the conclusion that there are 3 scum have any bearing on where afatchic got that information from? So, I ask you again: how am I giving him the benefit of the doubt?

I think that if afatchic flips scum, then it's a good indication that Germy is town.

Funny that you are saying this now when I've been saying it since post 62, 3 days ago.

Post 62, 3 days ago:

I think we could gain quite a bit from this lynch because, if afatchic is scum, you are much less likely to be scum in my opinion, because I have almost never seen buddying up between scumbuddies so early in D1, especially not accompanied with a quick backing off.

My argument: afatchic acts like he

knows

Germy to be town. Thus, if afatchic is indeed scum, then Germy is very likely to be town because I think that we can trust a scum's "read" on somebody.
So, yes, same conclusion, slightly different reasoning. Glad you think it's funny.

Artem – lots of setup discussion. Had good discussion with kair. Seemed to jump on the afat wagon too quickly, maybe to appease Kair for mis-reading his post earlier?

Uh... nope. I think afatchic makes too strong of an assumption that Germy is town and attempts to be consistent with what everybody else is thinking. I like to use my vote and afatchic is a good candidate for it.
I think that it's a matter of the difference in playstyle preference. You, for example, seem to be content with not voting, which I find just as suspicious as you find me "jumping on a bandwagon".

Also, I don't have to appease anyone, especially somebody who seems to be perpetually dissatisfied with what everybody else is doing. (Post #62).

As for not thinking afatchic has posted enough to let me conclude that yet, you will soon notice that I am a very agressive player. This method is helpful in my opinion, because scum tend to be very shaken up about being attacked aggressively and continuously.

is a good point only if the aggressive attacker isn't a scum himself. Otherwise, aggressive attacks at everybody around them is a convenient way of keeping options open for building a "case" against a townie. The game that Kairyuu mentioned (http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7891) I played very aggressively as scum and managed to rack up some votes on an innocent townie (springlullaby).

For this reason, Kairyuu is currently my #2 suspect.

[Artem]

One more thing.... Please don't name the people you think are town. Last thing we need is a bunch of lists for scum to go through at night to find the "most townie" player.

[mykonian]

hey, that's smart. Have been doing that wrong. Thank you. And now we wait for afatchic to defend himself.

[springlullaby]

I'm troubled by the recent attacks on Kairyuu him because I have a very confident and consistent town read on him, his case against afatchic could be perceived as a bit shaky since the later hasn't actually posted much, but I like the aggressive style.

I like the case on Artem and afatchic.

Though it's impossible to have much of a read on afatchic, what little he post doesn't make him look good, and he certainly deserves the pressure.

Artem (Hi btw, I wanted to say hi earlier but forgot ! ), I'm starting to lean scum on him, in the newbie game he mentioned, I remember him as quite well put together but here his content reads bubble headed or even inane when it's not obvious. I can totally imagine Artem thinking it a good idea to play newbie-ness to his advantage. I'm also not liking his defense. And I wouldn't say Kairyuu is being aggressive to everyone indiscriminately.

(Btw, for the record, I totally nailed Artem-scum in Newbie 588 )

@sekinj, what you say in #102 is not 'quite' ( which is to say, 'simply not true'), check post #34 in which I've explained my vote even before you dismiss it. That said , I actually like how you are standing your ground but not so much that analysis of yours which didn't say much.

But I'm more interested in Artem at the moment.

Unvote, Vote Artem

[springlullaby]

Also, germy, what do you think of afatchic?

[springlullaby]

Hmm, rereading, I'm totally repeating myself. Blaming it on being tired, got my sentiment across anyway.

[Kairyuu]

@CF Riot: So you are attacking me because I'm actually scumhunting? Because I'm confident? Because I'm attacking scummy people? Afatchic buddied up to germy, and then backed off part of the argument when it seemed a bad idea. I think that is enough to warrent a vote. If you don't, then that's your prerogative. And Edify I FOSed because he tried to reinstate random voting after it was over. The time they have been around means nothing, because Edify joined 2 days

before

me, and afatchic joined less than a week after me. Calling them newbies is useless, when I am just as new as them. Plus, join dates mean nothing, because you don't know how much mafia experience people have off site (I have none). And as for my attacking germy, so did everyone else except afatchic and edify, so why is it only me that strikes you as suspicious for doing so?

I am really going to need to put 'aggressiveness is not a scumtell' in my sig sometime soon, because I had the same issue for awhile in my newbie game. Meh, whatever.

@Sekinj: Alright. I can sort of see what you are saying. I'll explain as best I can.

You seemed to get VERY annoyed when anyone brought up the numbers thing again. I wasn't talking about the Artem thing, if you look at my commentary on him I mention that it was a good discussion (in fact the only one he has had besides setup mumbo jumbo).

It wasn't the numbers thing that annoyed me. It is just Artem in general. Everything he says has been him looking at my posts and ignoring everything I say so that he can try to tell me I'm doing somethng that I am not. Look back through out conversation. He is the one misrepresenting me at every turn. I tried to point it out and move on, but he just won't get it through his head that his logic is flawed. He had no real reason to bring up the numbers, yes, considering that he ignored them for two pages before mentioning them (even after I said I was mistaken) but I was much more irritated by the fact that he calls me out for my numbers when he let's afatchic slide on his.

I think the biggest victim of misrep right now is afatchic. I don't feel like you are representing my comments correctly either, but maybe I havn't been clear enough. in any case, I'd like to see what clarification afatchic can bring.

I don't see how you can accuse me of misrepresenting afatchic. He made two posts that conflicted with each other. I pointed that out. Can you explain how that is misrepresentation?

And as for you, until very recently you were merely chatting with springlullaby and posting no actual content. That was not misrepresentation, it was fact. Now that you actually are I will remove my FOS on you until you give me a reason to put it back on.

@ChuckNorris: Why is it that you continue to post filler posts? If you have not been absent for overly long then there is no reason that you should need to post filler.

@Artem: Please look up the uses of the phrase 'instead of,' because generally speaking, 'instead of' refers to

the norm

when the norm has been changed. As in, 'this is the way it was, but instead of that it is like this now' You are

agreeing with me

and then telling me I'm wrong.

How does my arriving to the conclusion that there are 3 scum have any bearing on where afatchic got that information from? So, I ask you again: how am I giving him the benefit of the doubt?

You automatically assume that afatchic's numbers are legitimate, and make an assumption as to where they come from. However, for me you take numbers that were shown to be misinterpreted in the first place and say that I shouldn't be just assuming that people can see that I am using a probablility when I state I am using a probability.

I

gave reasons for my numbers and you attacked me for using numbers "not immediately apparent" while

afatchic

used numbers taken from other people's posts and

didn't

reference where he got them from, but you automatically assumed that they made sense, so they didn't need to be given sources. Do you see it now?

is a good point only if the aggressive attacker isn't a scum himself. Otherwise, aggressive attacks at everybody around them is a convenient way of keeping options open for building a "case" against a townie. The game that Kairyuu mentioned (http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7891) I played very aggressively as scum and managed to rack up some votes on an innocent townie (springlullaby).

So therefore, you cannot use aggressiveness as a tell either way, since both scum and town have good reasons to be aggressive. Thank you for refuting your own argument.

@Springlullaby: Thank you for the voice of reason. One thing to ask you though. If you think that afatchic deserves the pressure on him, why vote Artem? Saying someone needs pressure and then not putting it on seems somewhat odd.

[Artem]

Artem (Hi btw, I wanted to say hi earlier but forgot Smile! ), I'm starting to lean scum on him, in the newbie game he mentioned, I remember him as quite well put together but here his content reads bubble headed or even inane when it's not obvious. I can totally imagine Artem thinking it a good idea to play newbie-ness to his advantage.

SL (Hi! ), that's because playing scum requires a lot more attention to make sure that nothing you say has a slip-up. I seem bubble-headed because, even though the game got serious on page 1, I'm still in the whole beginning-of-the-game-trying-to-figure-out-the-game-mechanics-and-wtf-we're-doing-here mindset, or at least was. Newbie games are easy: same thing each time. Here, I'm struggling with such simple things as what the majority is. Trust me, though, once I got the mechanics down, I'll be on top of things again.

Besides, don't you think it would be silly to try and pull off the "newbie scam" in a game where somebody knows me and when my stats are showing on the wiki? Total WIFOM, of course, but still.

I'm also not liking his defense.

That's because there wasn't a direct attack at me. Kair FoSd me, saying I'm trying to build up a wagon based on a weak reason (very jumpy/scummy reaction in itself), so I tried to explain to him the thoughts that went through my head when I was placing my vote on him. The thought process made sense to me at the time but I got caught up in the game mechanics somewhere in there and thought Kair was making an assumption that Germy is town, which I now see he wasn't. I tried to explain my reasoning behind the vote, but Kair kept thinking that I'm pushing an attack on him (who's really misreading who?), hence the whole argument with poor logic.

And I wouldn't say Kairyuu is being aggressive to everyone indiscriminately.

No, of course he's not. As scum, it's generally easy to see which targets are easy and which are impossible. In NG 588, I picked two targets and when Claus pointed out the flaws in my arguments against one of the targets, I went after you instead. Compare my play in NG 588 to Kair, Germy and afatchic.

Though it's impossible to have much of a read on afatchic, what little he post doesn't make him look good, and he certainly deserves the pressure.

I don't know...

i don't think he is giving the scum to much info, since most likely they have a good idea about the roles already. and i also don't think it was a bad idea to come out with it since from what i got out of his post, it wouldn't be a good idea to NK him N1.

reads like scum who's already decided to let Germy live on night 1. afatchic

is

assuming that Germy is town in the first sentence. Looking forward to an explanation from the accused though.

(Btw, for the record, I totally nailed Artem-scum in Newbie 588 Smile )

(Yea, you did. But we totally turned around the mess left by Dave and Grum. It was a fun game.)

[Kairyuu]

@Artem: Way to lie flat out about why I FoSed you. I FoSed you because you were being hypocritical by using a double standard between my posts and afatchic's. Not

once

did I say that you were trying to build any case on me whatsoever. So you essentially answered your own question there. It is

you

that has been the one misrepresenting me.

HOS: Artem

If I didn't think afatchic was a better lynch right now you would be the one with my vote.

[Artem]

I'm also not liking his defense.

Ugh. I just realized that you're probably talking about Sekinj's case on me, while I'm thinking of Kair's FoS.

However, I'm not entirely sure what more I can say there. I think afatchic made some statements that deserve further explanation, so I voted him, much like you're voting me right now. My vote is not an attempt to appease Kair.

@Artem: Way to lie flat out about why I FoSed you. I FoSed you because you were being hypocritical by using a double standard between my posts and afatchic's. Not once did I say that you were trying to build any case on me whatsoever. So you essentially answered your own question there. It is you that has been the one misrepresenting me. HOS: Artem If I didn't think afatchic was a better lynch right now you would be the one with my vote.

I never contradicted myself, and you should be able to see that now. I can see your response as coming from a misreading of what I said, or as

an overeager scum trying to start a weak wagon

. I'm leaning toward the misread option because of the unvote, but

I'll be watching you a bit more closely now

, if only because of your snap decisions.

It's an FoS, explicit or not.

Also, I gave afatchic and you exactly the same treatment. Here's my assumption on where you got the numbers from:

Second, where does 4/7 come from? When I first saw that, I thought that, assuming that there are 3 scum and a non-scum gets lynched on day 1, you're arguing that out of the eight remaining non-scum, only seven will now be targeted by the mafia because of Germy's claim. So, I thought you were making two assumptions:
-A non-scum gets lynched;
-Germy is town and mafia will not be targeting him during night 1;
Hence, my vote.

Here's my assumption (in the same post) on where afatchic got his numbers from:

Where does 1/4th come from? Is that referring to 3 out of 12 players being scum? In which case, why does afatchic assume we have 3 scum?

After thinking about it, I agree that it makes sense for there to be 3 scum, because either Germy is a townie and is telling the truth or if he was scum, he wouldn't be fishing for back-up roles knowing there were only two mafia (which would mean the setup doesn't have back-up roles).

But the fact wasn't immediately apparent to me. So, when afatchic says that scum know 1/4th of the roles, is that because he went through the same logic as me? Or is that because he believes Germy? Or is that because he knows there are 3 scum?

I asked both of you where

you

got the numbers from, and presented my speculation about where I think you did. Exactly the same treatment all around but I guess it's a lesson for me: don't give players answers to my own questions.

Also, if you're saying that I'm giving afatchic the benefit of the doubt, are you implying that we're buddies? And if so, am I bussing my partner right now? Care to elaborate on the scenario and whether it makes sense? And if you're not implying that we're buddies, then

what

is the purpose of your accusation?

[Kairyuu]

Ok. I looked over my posts. I did actually say that you had a chance of being overeager scum looking to make a weak case. I

also

said that that was unlikely, and that I was pretty sure you were just misreading my post. I did not FOS you until later, and for completely different reasons, so my point still stands. And by the way, I still don't think you are overeager scum looking to make a weak wagon. Now I just think you are obvious scum trying to discredit your main attacker in the hopes it will allow you to make yourself look more pro-town.

[Kairyuu]

If I don't explicitly FoS someone, then they are not FoSed. I just said I would be keeping a bit closer eye on you to see if you did the same sort of thing again (which you have, repeatedly).

Also, you did

not

treat each of our actions the same. You voted me (but had unvoted by that time) but you gave your own interpretation of afatchic's reasons, and didn't even bring it up until you were attacking me for my numbers. I can easily see this as your way of telling afatchic what he should say his reasoning was.

And yes, I am inferring that you two are buddies, and that you are bussing your partner by voting afatchic. It makes sense because you seem to have given up on afatchic. Or at least, you are willing to sacrifice him to make yourself look town. Other people have been suspecting him for awhile, and you probably think that if you are seen as one of the people originally pushing for his lynch, and he flips scum, you will be all but confirmed in the eyes of the town.