Open 38 - Jester Mafia 12p (Game Over!) - before 484

[ryan]

Let's just cut to the chase benhalkum, who's the scum in this game? (IYO)

[distad]

Unvote

My vote on Schis was a worthless random vote.

I'm curious about the BH bit, as well. I don't feel comfortable with lynching him, though. The more I read this, the more I think it's reeks of a jester gambit. No one else has come off scummy, or at least no one in nearly the same ballpark as BH has.

You could make an argument for JimmyR being scummy, but that seems more in his not believing BH is playing a jester gambit. Of course, if this is true and BH is scum and not the jester, Jex looks a bit suspicious with his "metagaming" defense of BH in 75.

Second, part of me really doesn't like Jimmy's reaction/analysis of BH.

I'm personally holding to the fact that it's still to early for anyone to be playing the Jester. They'd surely want to fly under the radar as long as possible.

Further,

No, it wouldn't. Because if you lynch me and my role is revealed, all you learn is you are one less of your own. Am I expendable? Depends on who's eyes you look through. Do you want to test it? Be my guest, afterall.. it's only a game...

Unvote, Vote Benhalkum

I think we're really going to struggle to lynch scum in this game. Every day it's going to be a worry whether or not we're going after the Jester.

I don't think Benhalkum is the Jester and his post above is probably the most anti-town I've seen this game. A good townie doesn't say things like that, so fine, lets test it.

True, it's hugely anti-town and a good townie certainly doesn't say things like it, but I don't think it's worth the test. It could VERY easily be a jester gambit (it's working for you). The part that I don't like about this is that it is a huge gamble for anyone OTHER than the jester to come out so convincingly, like Jimmy has. I think that this could be the very subtle beginnings of a jester gambit by Jimmy.

So, I have two people in my "watch for jester" pool.

[benhalkum]

Let's just cut to the chase benhalkum, who's the scum in this game? (IYO)

You and schismatized

[ryan]

Let's just cut to the chase benhalkum, who's the scum in this game? (IYO)

You and schismatized

Well since I know I'm not scum, why don't you lay some evidence down on schismatized? And don't throw a FoS at me because I've pressured you to own up to your actions, you have deserved every vote that has gone your way by your below average play in this game.

[benhalkum]

Nope. I've given my reason's above, you just saying your not scum doesn't prove anything. You wanted my opinon, ya got it.

[Jex]

Unvote

Of course, if this is true and BH is scum and not the jester, Jex looks a bit suspicious with his "metagaming" defense of BH in 75.

Just an FYI. I never said that I don't think Ben could be scum, I said that I don't think he is the jester based on gameplay in other games. I don't really know what to think of in terms of scuminess.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

IMPORTANT STRATEGY GUIDE FOR MAFIA PLAY IN A JESTER GAME

PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION! ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE MAFIA! THIS APPLIES TO YOU MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE!

Well first off you might want to know why you would give a crap as to anything a protown player would tell you(and you know I'm protown since I'm not in your mafia group), well even though we have differing interests in that we want different things(I want to kill all the mafia and you want to kill all of the town) we have a COMMON GOAL in that we do not want to LYNCH THE JESTER, because if that happens, we ALL LOSE.

Well what are the odds of us hitting the lousy jester with a lynch anyway? on the surface it looks like 1 out of 12 since there's 12 players in the game, but since you know you're not the jester, that means if you are lynching someone OTHER than yourself, the odds to you should appear as 1 in 11. Consider for a second how crappy 1 in 11 is in terms of instant loss, but then consider that it is NOT 1 in 11 from the perspective of the Mafia, Yes that's you evil nightkillers out there. If the person being run up and about to be lynched is NOT in your killing group, that means he has a one in 9 chance of being the jester as you know THREE people who are not the jester: you and your partners. Think for a second on how crappy the odds are of a 1 in 9 chance of instant loss, you don't even get a chance to nightkill the Jester, instead all that happens is you lose if you lynch him early.

If you factor in the fact that the jester may very well be more likely to be lynched since that's what he WANTS, the probability could easily move towards 1 in 6 or 1 in 5 of an instant loss.

So when you see someone not in your group being run up because he looks suspicious, you MUST think of it as a possible loss waiting to happen BECAUSE the odds of that person being the jester is greatly heightened, you can't think of it as a break for your group that you are being left alone and someone else is being run up, you must think of it as a possible loss waiting to happen if he is possibly jester.

This is the mistake the mafia made during the face to face game, when dirge became a big target and people moved towards voting him, the mafia let themselves stay silent and complacent during Dirge's subsequent lynch and victory, if they had instead done something, they might very well have won that game rather than instantly lose on day one along with the town.

How do you prevent a loss this way? Easy, you come out and SAY THAT YOU ARE MAFIA AND THAT THE SUSPICIOUS PERSON ABOUT TO BE LYNCHED IS NOT IN YOUR MAFIA GROUP AND IS QUITE LIKELY TO BE THE JESTER.

This is preferable to the jester getting lynched and winning BECAUSE IF THE JESTER IS LYNCHED, YOU LOSE AUTOMATICALLY, YOU HAVE NO CHANCE OF WINNING AT ALL. Even if you do have to sacrifice a member to remove the Jester, you should do it BECAUSE AT LEAST THEN YOU HAVE SOME CHANCE OF WINNING DOWN A MAN WHILE IF YOU HADNT SACRIFICED YOU WOULD HAVE NO CHANCE AT ALL.

Why would the town believe you and not lynch the other person? Simple! Because you have NO INCENTIVE TO LIE, admitting being mafia in order to prevent loss via jester MAKES SENSE FOR THE MAFIA TO DO AND THE TOWN WOULD DEFINITELY BELIEVE YOU AND LYNCH YOU AND THUS WE WOULD REMOVE THE JESTER THREAT SINCE YOU CAN NIGHTKILL HIM THE NIGHT AFTERWARDS!

I am issuing this strategy guide because I believe it is beneficial for the town and the mafia to understand this possible move by the mafia in order to prevent a loss to the jester that would give them a better chance at winning.

I believe if the mafia follow this strategy, it will increase the chances of the mafia or the town winning and decrease the odds of a jester win which is beneficial to me since I am a townie.

Anyone who does not understand the strategy/concepts I've outlined should tell me so because I am perfectly willing to elaborate further because IT IS IN MY INTERESTS THAT EVERYONE UNDERSTANDS THIS STRATEGY BECAUSE THEN THE MAFIA WOULD UNDERSTAND IT AND BE ABLE TO USE IT TO PREVENT A JESTER LYNCH.

That's all for now.

[distad]

I disagree, Pooky. It's an interesting strategy, but totally WIFOM. If the jester is sitting back being patient to avoid a night-lynch, then someone is about to be lynched, the jester could then stand up and say, "I'm mafia. He's not in my group. Don't lynch him." Then we run "the scum" up and lose.

Or suppose an actual scum stands up and says, "I'm mafia. He's not in my group. Don't lynch him." Then the jester says, "That's not true. *I'm* mafia. LAL."

I'm certainly not willing to lynch someone just because they claim to be scum.

[ryan]

I'm not sure why scum would take the chance to claim being the jester? That's a pretty big chance

[Blue Zebra]

Vote Count

benhalkum (4): ojpower, PookyTheMagicalBear, ryan, Jimmy R
ojpower (1): somestrangeflea
somestrangeflea (1): JDodge
Jimmy R (1): schismatized
PookyTheMagicalBear (1): spectrumvoid

Not Voting: Nightfall, Jex, benhalkum, distad

With 12 alive, it's 7 votes to lynch.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I disagree, Pooky. It's an interesting strategy, but totally WIFOM. If the jester is sitting back being patient to avoid a night-lynch, then someone is about to be lynched, the jester could then stand up and say, "I'm mafia. He's not in my group. Don't lynch him." Then we run "the scum" up and lose.

Or suppose an actual scum stands up and says, "I'm mafia. He's not in my group. Don't lynch him." Then the jester says, "That's not true. *I'm* mafia. LAL."

I'm certainly not willing to lynch someone just because they claim to be scum.

To your first point, yes the Jester could do that but look at what it would look like from the Mafia point of view. They KNOW that when the Jester tries to claim mafia that the person claiming mafia is ACTUALLY the jester, they know that if they don't intervene, the jester WILL BE LYNCHED BY US AND THEY WILL LOSE. Thus their best move at that point is to COUNTERCLAIM THE JESTER AND CLAIM TO BE MAFIA IN ORDER TO PREVENT A LOSS DUE TO THE JESTER! Then the town will not lynch EITHER of the two players and in the night, the mafia will nightkill the jester in order to eliminate their possibility of losing through that avenue.

In the 2nd scenario, a jester counterclaiming a mafia WONT be lynched because we know out of the 2 players claiming to be mafia, one of them is MAFIA and one is a JESTER, so our best move is to not lynch EITHER OF THEM AND LET THE MAFIA NIGHTKILL THE JESTER AT NIGHT(Because the Mafia know which of the 2 is the actual Jester and the Mafia can't risk letting us lose to the jester).

This is a WIN-WIN FOR US BECAUSE THE MAFIA WOULD NEVER LET A JESTER WHO IS CLAIMING TO BE MAFIA WIN BY BEING LYNCHED BECAUSE SUCH A MOVE WILL MEAN THEY WILL DEFINITELY LOSE! EVEN IF THE MAFIA GO DOWN ONE MAN, they will STILL HAVE A CHANCE AT WINNING! However if they let the jester who fakeclaimed mafia be lynched, they have absolutely no chance to be lynched.

I'd say a slightly smaller percentage of winning due to losing a man is MUCH more preferable than the absolutely 100% chance of losing when the jester does get lynched.

[Blue Zebra]

Anyone alive?

[ryan]

Anyone alive?

I'm alive, ben shouldn't be.

[somestrangeflea]

Alive. Currently awaiting a post from ojpower, and possible

prods for JDodge, Nightfall and spectruvoid

please, under the criteria, that, AFAICT, they haven't posted for a week.

[benhalkum]

I request to be replaced. I will no longer be participating in mafia games hosted by mafiascum. I did enjoy my stay but the games are too slow paced and unproductive for me.

[Blue Zebra]

ojpower, JDodge, and Nightfall have been prodded. It has come to my attention that spectrumvoid will not have access for the next eight months, and will have to be replaced.

[Blue Zebra]

spectrumvoid has been replaced by d3sisted.

[d3sisted]

VOTE: nightfall

Why replace when we can just lynch deadweight.

lol

I’m not sitting well with this statement at all. Why are you so anxious to put a lynch on someone who hasn’t even been suspected?

I am actually not so inexperianced as when I first signed up here at MS. So, usually there is a method behind my madness in which I don't care to explain at the present.

So you say you know what you’re doing? Heh, doubt it because what you’re 'doing' is emitting endless scum vibes.

Prob not here or now. We all play this game different. Got to think, I came from a different bg of the game of mafia, my way of playing seems to confuse people here and make them nervous.

Basically you’re saying: "I know I’m playing weird, but don’t vote me!" Scummy.

No, it wouldn't. Because if you lynch me and my role is revealed, all you learn is you are one less of your own. Am I expendable? Depends on who's eyes you look through. Do you want to test it? Be my guest, afterall.. it's only a game...

Oh yes, the classic "You’ll be sorry!" argument. Sacrificing yourself doesn’t help town in any way.

I make a correction, I stated amde a suggesstion and NOT a vote, when in fact I did. But I stand by my reasons i originally voted for him. However, at this point I will

UNVOTE

due to m FOS.

Now that there’s so much pressure on you, you’re going to unvote? Seems to me like scum is getting scared.

You and schismatized

That’s it? Not even gonna back it up? You’re just throwing suspicion every which way now, and it’s not helping your case one little bit. Is this part of your ultra secretive play style? Maybe a bit of pressure will help get you talking;

Vote: Benhalkum

For those of you who currently don’t have a vote on Ben, I’d like to hear what your take on him is. Why or why isn’t he the lynch for today?

[somestrangeflea]

For those of you who currently don’t have a vote on Ben, I’d like to hear what your take on him is. Why or why isn’t he the lynch for today?

Why are you convinced he's scum? More importantly, why did you ignore the possibility of ben being the Jester?

[d3sisted]

For those of you who currently don’t have a vote on Ben, I’d like to hear what your take on him is. Why or why isn’t he the lynch for today?

Why are you convinced he's scum? More importantly, why did you ignore the possibility of ben being the Jester?

I thought it was pretty clear why I think he's scum in my PBPA.
And I think you might be right with the Jester role; it would definitely explain why he's been playing so scummy. I think I'm gonna back off and give him some room in that case.

Unvote

[Blue Zebra]

benhalkum has been replaced by Kerplunk.

[d3sisted]

Welcomeness.

[Kerplunk]

Hi all!

Haven't read much of the thread yet, but it seems I am the head target. I think ben is just used to another type of mafia.

Wow, this jester-thing is mind-boggling. I wouldn't dare to lynch anyone. Anyways, this is going to be interesting.

Going to reread tomorrow, as it is bed time here in Dutchland.

[Jex]

I really don't think ben/kerplunk is the jester based on ben's playstyle. Like I've said he plays that way in all of his games so I think he just generally looks scummy. At this point he is the scummiest on my list, but I also feel that too much of the conversation has been focused on ben alone. It will be interesting to see how kerplunk responds to the attention ben has received. However, I would like to a reread soon and see if there are other people we should be keeping our eyes on. I feel that many are skating by under the radar right now and feel our attention is too focused for being only page 5. Just my opinion.

[ryan]

Unvote:

Welcome to the game and to be fair, I shall give you a chance to comment on a few of the things that ben did.