433: Dry, bland, generic mafia: Game Over

[somestrangeflea]

Pretty much your only comment about Day One was along the lines of "Wow, SS's really screwed me over". I'm not sure how I'm supposed to believe you've read the thread a couple weeks ago when that's your only commentary.

Anyone who interested me during Day 1 is dead now, so I wasted no time commenting on it. TBH, you've all been quite unoutstanding Day 1, which, ironically makes you all quite good townies. Well done, BTW, you've all made my life hell.

Furthermore, the fact that your response to allegations against SSF is "well, I can't defend what SSF did" is scummier than townie - townspeople are much more likely to actually defend their predecessor on what points that they can, whereas scum are much more likely to try to ask for people to judge them from a clean slate.

False dilemma FTW.
I neither tried to defend what SS did, nor asked to be judged on a clean slate. I know full well that I'll be judged on what SS did, and I've not tried to hide that fact.

Added to this, ssf is in a position where a townie *should* be panicking about the fact he's on the chopping block and we're in potential LyLo. He's either not understood the situation, is too apathetic to get to a point where he might understand, or doesn't have the same threat of LyLo and so is more relaxed about it all.

Apathetic FTW.
TBH, I've been playing this game rather

a

pathetically...

[Off the Mark]

Anyone who interested me during Day 1 is dead now, so I wasted no time commenting on it. TBH, you've all been quite unoutstanding Day 1, which, ironically makes you all quite good townies. Well done, BTW, you've all made my life hell.

Getting more town vibes from ssf. I don't think a scum would be intentionally vague like this.

[petroleumjelly]

*posting in-between classes*

I'm going to make a general commentary, and for an example, I will specifically use OTM. OTM has claimed that he thinks I am town, that he is town, and now that he is getting town vibes from SSF. Since Kilmenator is necessarily town, then it follows that OTM would think the following:

{gorkcat, Dasquian, Pie, pete d} are

all

scum, unless he believes we're dealing with 3 total scum instead of 4 total scum. Basically, everybody is going to assume that themself and Kilmenator are scum, which allows at most 2-3 other people to be town, and the rest to necessarily be scum. If you don't think your left-over grouping is accurate, then you need to rethink who you think is town. I myself am only semi-"comfortable" with a couple people by this point, but in the sense that although I don't think they are the correct people to lynch

today

, they may be correct to lynch

tomorrow

. I think SSF and gorkcat are two players in particular who continually end up in my "leftovers" feeling, and neither of them have really done anything to make me think otherwise. I'm mostly holding off my vote because I do not want to risk the chance for a mafia group of 3 to quicklynch a SK, which would pretty much auto-lose this game for the town.

[petroleumjelly]

Basically, everybody is going to assume that themself and Kilmenator are

town

, which allows at most 2-3 other people to be town, and the rest to necessarily be scum.

Fixed.

[Off the Mark]

PJ - when I say someone is giving me town vibes, it's really more non-mafia vibes. SSF or you could easily be the SK, but I don't think you're mafia. It's easier to give off a town vibe when you're the SK, since you aren't linked to anyone else and can play dumb convincingly.

It's also very possible that I am wrong and Pie is scum instead of Dasq or maybe Gorck and Pete are clean, who knows. (That would mean I am a lunatic who should be ignored, but hey I've been wrong before) But right now I feel most comfortable with the Pete and Gorck scumbuddy theory.

[Pie_is_good]

"The bandwagon could be growing because it's a legit bandwagon" is not even

close

to a refutation.

Yes, it's a possibility.

But, for one thing, I don't think the case against SSF is as bulletproof as the 1-sidedness of the wagon makes it out to be. Also, even if the speed of the bandwagon winds up meaning nothing, vote patterns are very much worth looking at. I'm finding myself agreeing with OTM on most of these points.

Also...

Is it just me, or does anyone else see something wrong with the bold?

...sits poorly with me. It's like he's asking someone else to make his case for him. I also don't like Gorc's dual-bandwagon citizenship. It's like he'll take any lynch he can get.

[Dasquian]

Current thoughts:

kilm is still as townie as she was a few weeks ago, but she should be posting.

ssf, as I've recently said, replaced scummy ss (sorry pie, but ss

was

in my eyes at least easily the scummiest and lurkiest player in the game). Since then he has been on mafiascum a

lot

, has been posting in other forums, but somehow still hasn't made any time for this game. I know I sound patronising, but this just isn't good enough. It's certainly not good enough to make me think he should be any

less

suspicious than he was when he replaced ss.

pete d is being quiet, or at least giving me that impression. Would like to hear more.

PJ gives me town vibes. So does gorckat.

I continue to disagree with almost everything pie says without getting particularly scummy vibes from him. That said, the previous post seemed "off" to me, and makes me consider the possibility of an ssf/OTM/pie mafia.

OTM I just cannot agree with. It seems that he's become fixated on a gorckat/pete d pairing beyond any shred of doubt. I don't see how he can be that sure, I don't really buy it anyway, and he's lost support from me because he's popped me into that grouping when I started disagreeing vocally. I appreciate the irony of now finding him suspicious because of this Overall the behaviour "feels" much more like a townie who is convinced he "got it spot on" than scum. Working from the premise "I'm right" is an easy thing to do, and if he has been everything he's done has been rational.


So summary: right now, I think ssf is still the best lynch. If he turns up scum, I would be inclined to suspect pie from the last post alone and find gorckat more innocent for the same reason (as the presented alternative). If he turns up innocent, I'd be a bit more flummoxed (and would get a bit hot under the collar, to boot). Assuming myself, kilmenator and gorckat all to be town (or at least, non-mafia), and OTM and PJ to be most likely townies from the rest of the group, my suspected mafia is by logical conclusion ssf, pete d and pie. I'm happy with that.

[gorckat]

It's like he's asking someone else to make his case for him.

Not at all. As I read it, it looked like kilm saying she wasn't a vig. That seemed really weird since no one else had called her on it, and as was pointed out, the timing of that was before her claim.

Assuming myself, kilmenator and gorckat all to be town (or at least, non-mafia), and OTM and PJ to be most likely townies from the rest of the group, my suspected mafia is by logical conclusion ssf, pete d and pie. I'm happy with that.

Given how quiet they've been, it makes sense. Without people putting themselves on the line pushing a mislynch, there's no oppotunity to catch them.

[Off the Mark]

So Das, you're saying you'd support a Pete D lynch? Because I could get on board with that.

[Dasquian]

Not today - it would be a very reluctant second choice, rather than an "I'm happy with any of these three" thing, and I would be uncomfortable agreeing to his lynch when I find ssf a better choice in almost every respect.

[Off the Mark]

Didn't think so. Can we move on with this game please? Anyone who's not voting, please vote or at least ask a question / make a comment that will lead you to a vote. The pace of this game is ridiculous. If it doesn't pick up, I'm about ready to ask for replacement because this is getting incredibly boring.

[Dasquian]

Seconded. I'm not about to get myself replaced but some movement would be good. Honestly I think at this point we should just lynch ssf and move on. He is clearly not interested in addressing his own bandwagon and that

must

be punishable by death.

[Off the Mark]

He is clearly not interested in addressing his own bandwagon and that

must

be punishable by death.

Huh? He's been posting as much as the average poster in this slooow game. He defended himself just last Friday before the holiday weekend. Your post is ridiculous.

[gorckat]

FWIW, his defense was 'apathy'.

[Dasquian]

Really? You

really

think he's put in the effort required of a replacement? He's given no indication that he's even read the thread, let alone thoroughly to come up with some valid opinions. He's proffered the briefest responses only to things which have happened in the time he's been reading, and even he's admitted that he's not been pulling his weight. That post you referenced had him admitting to being, and I quote, "too apathetic to get to a point where he might understand" [the current situation of the game].

Basically he's dicked us around for the best part of a month while we've waited to hear what he was going to add, with a "roll over and die then pretend not to hear" attitude. Even if it's not a stalling tactic that's working remarkably well, by ignoring him we're giving scum the all-clear to try it themselves. There are lots of reasons this game is slow. Let's not make this town being abnormally reluctant to push a good bandwagon one of them.

[gorckat]

From my gut, there are two likely scum groups:

Das, PJ and pete or flea, OTM and pie. Yes, the second has a dash of OMGUS. Whatever. They're not in order of likelihood, and both have a flex spot in them I could swap with another person.

I think Das and PJ have been good townies. PJ especially put in a load of work reading up for us. That makes me lean towards my second grouping and maintain lynching flea is a good idea.

This my gut and I couldn't put anything concrete in a post to explain it better than that.

Discuss.

[Off the Mark]

Alright, so it wasn't a great defense. But it seemed like you were trying to make it look like he had given up, Dasq, which I felt was an exaggeration. His behavior still seems more like cornered townie than caught-red-handed-scum, to me. I agree he should be trying to defend himself more, but that doesn't make him scum.

[Dasquian]

Re: gorckat. Unsurprisingly, I agree with your second grouping more than the first. However, I don't think the first is unreasonable (though, of course, wrong!) based on the lines that have been drawn in this game and which side people have come down on them.

Paranoid disclaimer: you might be scum deliberately presenting two alternatives each containing some scum-buddies for various nefarious outcomes.

Re: OTM. He

has

given up. Let's look back to post 729:

Reread blah blah post later etc... You know the drill.

That was Aug 10, one day shy of a month ago, and I'm still waiting for any kind of "I'm here, I know what I'm doing now, and here's what I think of everything" post. You're right, it doesn't make him scum, but it doesn't make him town either and superstring was already well on his way to the noose when flea replaced him. The only reason the pressure let up was to give him breathing room to join the game, which he's willfully chosen not to use.

[gorckat]

Paranoid disclaimer: you might be scum deliberately presenting two alternatives each containing some scum-buddies for various nefarious outcomes.

MWUHAHAHno.

Re: OTM. He

has

given up. Let's look back to post 729:

Reread blah blah post later etc... You know the drill.

That was Aug 10, one day shy of a month ago, and I'm still waiting for any kind of "I'm here, I know what I'm doing now, and here's what I think of everything" post. You're right, it doesn't make him scum, but it doesn't make him town either and superstring was already well on his way to the noose when flea replaced him. The only reason the pressure let up was to give him breathing room to join the game, which he's willfully chosen not to use.

I did a little reading of flea in a few other games about a week ago. He does seem consistent with the 'I'm in the game now, so that's when I start playing' attitutde (both when he replaces and when other's replace in). He did post a total summary of opinions as a scum replacement in Mini 425 (or is this 425? If so, 433). I don't recall if he has replaced as town in another deep game needing such a synopsis.

However, his refusal to post such a summary here (even so much as saying whether he bought Dodgy's claim, CES' non-claim, MBL's refusal to claim, or anything else) is very frustrating and ignores that WE aren't just starting.

[petroleumjelly]

Das, PJ and pete or flea, OTM and pie. Yes, the second has a dash of OMGUS. Whatever. They're not in order of likelihood, and both have a flex spot in them I could swap with another person.

I'll have to reread the latest happening to see if these two grouping indeed fall on "lines that have been drawn" (as Dasquain suggests), but this appears to me to be rather ingenuous. For me, is

bordering

on a false dilemma (even though it is clearly not so simple). It appears to group the town into two particular things, and then undermining one, and therefore concluding the second to be true.

To me, it is reading along the lines of the following:

The three shiniest objects in my possession are either:

->

a.

A coin, a knife, and a mirror; or
->

b.

A key, a paper-clip, and a button

However, I don't think my key or my button is very shiny, so I think

a.

is probably my three shiniest objects.

The problem, of course, being that there is no reason why the paper-clip should not be included in

a

or part of another option entirely - the groups look almost arbitrarily made for the purpose of keeping the unmentioned object in group

b

(in this case, pete d) out of the other grouping. Also, for a grouping like this ("most likely to be scum"), it makes

much

more sense for there to actually me some

overlapping

between two options, instead of sticking people in groups

first

without first assessing who you think is

most likely to be scum

. To compare to the "shiny" analogy, you would think somebody talking about their three most shiny objects would have a list like the following:

I am quite sure that my Mirror is - at the very least - in my top three shiniest objects. I do not think my key or my button is very shiny, though. So I think my top three shiniest objects are:

->

a.

A mirror, a coin, and a knife; or
->

b.

A mirror, a coin, and a paperclip; or
->

c.

A mirror, a knife, and a paperclip

^ This to me is much more likely town thought process than the first example. I still think either gorkcat or SSF are the way to go today.

[petroleumjelly]

From my gut, there are two likely scum groups:

Das, PJ and pete or flea, OTM and pie. Yes, the second has a dash of OMGUS. Whatever. They're not in order of likelihood, and

both have a flex spot in them I could swap with another person.

I think Das and PJ have been good townies. PJ especially put in a load of work reading up for us.

That makes me lean towards my second grouping and maintain lynching flea is a good idea.

To respond to the comment I expect somebody to make (because I have time to respond to it now, but I can't say the same for the near future):

Yes

, I did notice the comment I high-lighted in blue.

But

given his next (purple) high-lighted statement, it seems to contradict his willingness to swap people in and out (but instead stick to one grouping). In particular, I would like see who he swaps out for who, what groupings that leaves him, and which of those groupings he then finds to be most likely. This is mostly being done to see who (if anybody) overlaps in gorkcat's lists.

[gorckat]

I'd seen someone use the term 'False Dilemma' in another game, but they didn't explain it and I hadn't had a chance to wiki it. Thank you for the breakdown.

Basically, those are just my gut feelings- If A, then B and maybe C, or 1, then 2 and probably 3. Its like a fork in the road. Either direction is equally likely to get me where I want to go, but the road to the left triggers a more emotional response and looks more enjoyable.

Some of the players just don't strike me as being scum together.

[gorckat]

Damn- shoulda previewed (missed PJ's second post).

Maybe I should've also listed my SK 'group': pete, flea and pie. If pete's the SK, I'd slide pie into his place with Das and PJ, but that doesn't feel as 'organic' as Das, pj, pete. If flea or pie were the SK, pj would take his place in that group.

Based on how felt people have been interacting, I lean towards the pie, OTM, flea grouping.

[petroleumjelly]

{Non-Game related}

To be fair, a true false dilemma is often going to be in the form of:

I either agree with me, or you are a complete idiot. You do not agree with me, so I must conclude you are an idiot.

This of course leaves out options such as "You do not agree with me but you are not an idiot", "I am an idiot and to agree with me is to be an idiot", "You have not given an opinion, so I although you may 'not agree with me' right now there is a chance you will", and so on. There isn't a good reason to exclude these unless you explain them.

{Game related}

Essentially, I wanted reasoning for why you put particular people in particular groups, because to me the groupings looked arbitrarily made for the purpose of discrediting one to affirm the other, without explaining why the other options are not feasible to you. I'll accept your explanation for now, but there's a good chance I will poke at you to explain it more for me so I can understand your thinking.

[petroleumjelly]

EBWOP:

I

You

either agree with me, or you are a complete idiot. You do not agree with me, so I must conclude you are an idiot.