Mini 867- TTGL Mafia: GAME OVER: Roles posted.

[Cobalt]

seraphim what are you doing?
jester speculation is stupid
Snowbunny, why do you feel sera's kill was WIFOMy?

[Snow_Bunny]

Way to avoid my question. What level of conclusiveness would there need to be for you to vote? And WIFOM is only one element of the case against him. His actions seperate of WIFOM is scummy in an of itself.

What are the other elements? The case on him is based on an early (well bad played) action. I've seen townies do that other times. Making a day-kill in the early game, that is. What are his other scummy actions? The claim? Well, scummy as it can be, I'm not sure of that. I mean, I'd make the Kamina role a bit broken as well, if I were the mod. So, it's all speculation about the setup, which I don't like, and which I believe it's scummy.

jester speculation is stupid
Snowbunny, why do you feel sera's kill was WIFOMy?

I agree with the first thing. Whatever there is a jester in this game, it's not good for town speculating about it as it can derail us from the most important job we have: hunt scum.

And as I said before, I've seen townies day-kill on the early game, so it's not a conclusive proof he's scum. In fact, I've to still see a scum doing that.

[Cobalt]

At this point I consider sera's kill to be a town-tell.

[Cobalt]

Hmm, I think I agree with Yos about testing Sera's claim via lynching, though. It won't end the day, right? So what can we lose?

[Yosarian2]

I'm treating his day-kill like a vidge that kills on Night 0 until I have a reason to think its a scum kill. I'm treating his claim like someone who's playing a gambit in a Tarhalindur-style game, which could become a good strategy as town. Do you think either of these things is scummy?

Well, the thing is, there's a mathmatical case to be made for vigging night zero. I don't agree with it, but it's not an unambiguasly bad play.

On the other hand, there's absolutly no reason for a pro-town day-vig to vig early in the day instead of later, when he might actually hit scum. None at all.

His actions so far this game would make the most sense if he's a scum day-killer, like a day-SK or a mafia with a one-shot kill, running a gambit to try to use his daykill to "confirm" himself. That's not the only explination, but just based on his daykill and the weak explination he gave for it (not to mention his SK-claim before that), it makes the most sense.

I'll admit, I'm rather skeptical; last time I saw someone claiming that on day 1, they were lying. What's even more frustrating, they were a lying pro-town role, and when we lynched them (because of course you should always lynch someone who claims to be unlynchable) it did serious damage to the town.

Werewolves of Millers Hollow, that's the game I was thinking of too. He might be lying about his claim, and still be town. I just want to be sure what he is, because from what Sera's already done and said we should be able to decide whether we want to lynch him right now.

Well, the way I see it, it's simple.

There's about a 60% chance he's just flat out lying scum. In that case, we lynch him.

There's about a 30% chance he's town telling the truth. In that case, unless he gives us a reason not to, we speedlynch him, confirm his claimed ability, and then move on quickly rather then waste any more time debating him today, if he really is unlynchable and if lynching him really dosn't end the day. If there's some reason we shoudln't do this, Serephem, you'd better fill us in fast.

The other 10% chance is that he's a lying pro-town daykiller who's acting like kind of a VI this game, killing townies at random and then lying about being unlynchable (that level of VI-ness dosn't really seem to fit what I know about Serephem, so I don't find it that likely). If he is, then hopefully he'll confess and tell us the truth as soon as he realizes we're serious and actually are about to lynch him, and then we can hopefully get this whole confusing mess sorted out.

Even if he didn't claim unlynchable, I'd be voting him right now until he gives a better explination for that daykill. Since he did, though, there's really no reason for anyone to NOT be voting him right now.

[Yosarian2]

What are the other elements? The case on him is based on an early (well bad played) action. I've seen townies do that other times. Making a day-kill in the early game, that is. What are his other scummy actions? The claim? Well, scummy as it can be, I'm not sure of that. I mean, I'd make the Kamina role a bit broken as well, if I were the mod. So, it's all speculation about the setup, which I don't like, and which I believe it's scummy.

Snow_Bunny, I mentioned this before, and you didn't respond. Why are you opposed to lynching him? What's the risk? If you belive him, then you think he's lynchproof and lynching him won't end the day, right?

[Chaco]

@Vi: He had no votes, I randomly chose a person with no votes. Hence, random vote.

@Sociopath: I see where you get your "coaching" idea from, however, that is not the case. I was putting out my idea that we should just lynch them and get them over with. Do you see any problems with this? Why?

[Jahudo]

There's about a 60% chance he's just flat out lying scum. In that case, we lynch him.

There's about a 30% chance he's town telling the truth. In that case, unless he gives us a reason not to, we speedlynch him, confirm his claimed ability, and then move on quickly rather then waste any more time debating him today, if he really is unlynchable and if lynching him really dosn't end the day. If there's some reason we shoudln't do this, Serephem, you'd better fill us in fast.

The other 10% chance is that he's a lying pro-town daykiller who's acting like kind of a VI this game, killing townies at random and then lying about being unlynchable (that level of VI-ness dosn't really seem to fit what I know about Serephem, so I don't find it that likely). If he is, then hopefully he'll confess and tell us the truth as soon as he realizes we're serious and actually are about to lynch him, and then we can hopefully get this whole confusing mess sorted out.

Even if he didn't claim unlynchable, I'd be voting him right now until he gives a better explination for that daykill. Since he did, though, there's really no reason for anyone to NOT be voting him right now.

Where are these percentages coming from? Under normal circumstances the first two options are a good enough gut feeling for me to test his claim, but I wonder if we're trying to outguess the mod this way.

What about the possibility that Sera's telling the truth as town, but another force unknown to us allows the lynch to go through anyway? For example, anyone in this game can be lynched according to the rules. What does that mean for contradicting claims and people not in the game?

Oh hey, Rule 18 added. I'm amazed I forgot this...it's kinna important

[Yosarian2]

There's about a 60% chance he's just flat out lying scum. In that case, we lynch him.

There's about a 30% chance he's town telling the truth. In that case, unless he gives us a reason not to, we speedlynch him, confirm his claimed ability, and then move on quickly rather then waste any more time debating him today, if he really is unlynchable and if lynching him really dosn't end the day. If there's some reason we shoudln't do this, Serephem, you'd better fill us in fast.

The other 10% chance is that he's a lying pro-town daykiller who's acting like kind of a VI this game, killing townies at random and then lying about being unlynchable (that level of VI-ness dosn't really seem to fit what I know about Serephem, so I don't find it that likely). If he is, then hopefully he'll confess and tell us the truth as soon as he realizes we're serious and actually are about to lynch him, and then we can hopefully get this whole confusing mess sorted out.

Even if he didn't claim unlynchable, I'd be voting him right now until he gives a better explination for that daykill. Since he did, though, there's really no reason for anyone to NOT be voting him right now.

Where are these percentages coming from?

Nowhere specific, just my analysis of his play so far, and of the probability of his claim, makes me think it's more likely he's lying scum then town telling the truth. Obviously those aren't really meaningful numbers at this point. You could flip the first two and lynching him would still be a good move, though, so it dosn't even really matter.

Under normal circumstances the first two options are a good enough gut feeling for me to test his claim, but I wonder if we're trying to outguess the mod this way.

When someone has a seemingly absurd and overly complicated claim, with way too many bells and whistles to make sense as a role, they're usually lying, in my experience. It's a pretty common scum mistake.

But, it dosn't even matter. There's no outguessing the mod involved at all. Either he's telling the truth, or he's lying, and either way, lynching him is the right move.

Honestly, I'm not sure why this is taking so long. If he is telling the truth, and lynching him does nothing, we don't want to waste the whole day on this.

What about the possibility that Sera's telling the truth as town, but another force unknown to us allows the lynch to go through anyway?
For example, anyone in this game can be lynched according to the rules. What does that mean for contradicting claims and people not in the game?

Oh hey, Rule 18 added. I'm amazed I forgot this...it's kinna important

Thanks, mod.

Yeah...that would be, well, beyond bastard modding, telling someone they're unlynchable when they're not. It dosn't really make sense, either.

Besides, stop and think this through for a second. Someone is an unlynchable, unkillable daykiller. How could that ever possibly be a balanced role? No matter what his alignment is, seems like his side probably wins the game. Plus, the vague hints that there is "more to his role he's not telling us", even though he already told us the part that no sane pro-town person would ever tell scum (the part where he's supposedly un-nightkillable), just make the whole thing even less likely.

[Seraphim]

After thinking hard about it, I'm willing to be lynched if you do it quickly. I, meanwhile, will be ignoring it and hunting scum. I'm not going to self-vote. The lynch will fail and I am confident in this.

[Cobalt]

Kay.

unvote vote seraphim

becuase I forgot to unvote last time.

[Yosarian2]

After thinking hard about it, I'm willing to be lynched if you do it quickly.

Ok. Let's do this thing.

[SocioPath]

Unvote
Vote: Seraphim

For his claim purposes.

[Jahudo]

unvote
Vote: Seraphim

Rule 18 eliminates my concern.

[Snow_Bunny]

What are the other elements? The case on him is based on an early (well bad played) action. I've seen townies do that other times. Making a day-kill in the early game, that is. What are his other scummy actions? The claim? Well, scummy as it can be, I'm not sure of that. I mean, I'd make the Kamina role a bit broken as well, if I were the mod. So, it's all speculation about the setup, which I don't like, and which I believe it's scummy.

Snow_Bunny, I mentioned this before, and you didn't respond. Why are you opposed to lynching him? What's the risk? If you belive him, then you think he's lynchproof and lynching him won't end the day, right?

No. My experience with lynchproofs players is that the day DOES end, with a no-lynch. And, no-lynch is bad for town.

[Cobalt]

Sera seems pretty sure the day won't end.

[Yosarian2]

No. My experience with lynchproofs players is that the day DOES end, with a no-lynch. And, no-lynch is bad for town.

Sara specifically told us that it does not end the day.

[MonkeyMan576]

Either he is lying about the day not ending or his is lying about being lynchproof. It would behoove us to find out which.

[Yosarian2]

Either he is lying about the day not ending or his is lying about being lynchproof. It would behoove us to find out which.

What? Why would you assume that?

[MonkeyMan576]

Either he is lying about the day not ending or his is lying about being lynchproof. It would behoove us to find out which.

What? Why would you assume that?

Let's just say it would be very unlikely that both unlikely scenarios would both be true. More of a hunch than a definitive statement.

[Seraphim]

Monkeyman, perhaps I am not lying?

Unvote
Vote: Monkeyman

False choice is false choice. There is the chance I am not lying which is the truth.

[Vi]

This Seraphim lynch is horrible. We should be lynching Chacahudosarian2.
(I'm pretty sure I can guess how that role is balanced, but I'll save that for I-told-you-sos later, etc.)

The only not-horrible thing about it is that Seraphim promised to scumhunt in the meantime, and hasn't so far.

Okay, so it's entirely horrible now.

[Cobalt]

Vi, why do you want to lynch Yos?

[Seraphim]

Vi, if I'm following your train of thought, don't worry about it. Them lynching me will do NOTHING.

[MonkeyMan576]

Monkeyman, perhaps I am not lying?

Unvote
Vote: Monkeyman

False choice is false choice. There is the chance I am not lying which is the truth.

So we're supposed to not lynch you on the 5% chance you are telling the truth?