Mini 527 - Doom in Valencia - Game Over!


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Post Post #636 (ISO) » Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:13 pm

Post by Javert »

I am not positive I will be able to slip in a post tomorrow, so I want to make sure I give my opinion on today (since it is possible there may be a lynch while I am away):

There are a few things which make me believe Arakorn is townier than gorckat. Many of them boil down to WIFOM, but I am not a player who dismisses things on that basis if I feel there is a kernel of truth to be had in them; I simply give them their due weight. Although I do not have my notes with me (they are at school, whereas I am at home right now) it really boils down to two things:

Sincerity and playing against his individual self-interest. The tones of many of Arakorn's posts strike me as very sincere; at the same time, many of his posts seem to be so much against his self-interest (if he were scum) that it is difficult to imagine a scum writing them in the first place.

-->
a.)
He denies being a newbie (something he may have been able to exploit had he chosen to do so)
-->
b.)
He seems to genuinely confuse naming people today; this clearly does not help him as either town or scum. I am inclined to think anybody being scum with MeMe, however, would not find it easy to accidentally mistake neko2086 with MeMe. It is certainly bad play, but it does not seem like
purposeful
bad play.
-->
c.)
He is apparently listing his scum-preference as {gorckat => neko => Javert}. This is practically shooting himself in the foot; if we were to lynch gorckat today, he would look bad switching to me; and by that same token, I do not believe I would lynch neko with him tomorrow if it comes down to us three. His list basically sets him up for being lynched tomorrow.
-->
d.)
Arakorn has had a precedent in this game of pointing out he is not a big contributor, and this helps as an explanation for his posting in this game. Although I have never played with Arakorn before to or read any of his games to verify this, I am under the impression (false? true?) that at the very least, Pra a Funkee Homo Sapien is from the same site as Arakorn, and given that Pra never once disagreed with Arakorn on this point, that it is more likely to be true than it is false. His response to 'whether he finds spam or substance easier to read' also rings fairly true (although being truthful to this question is not in itself an indicator of alignment).

~~~~~

That said, without seeing Arakorn's answers to my questions, I am more inclined to lynch Arakorn today over gorckat (however much it would probably be in
my
best interest to lynch gorckat today).

Short summarization of reasons:

Regardless of his claimed past history of not contributing, entering a game asking for somebody to 'summarize' it for you automatically pulls a rug from your feet. All other replacements -- except Dead Rikimaru-scum -- read the game and gave their own commentary. By that same token, reentering the game under the impression there is a deadline while making no effort to find scum indicates to me a tacit consent to being okay with lynching whoever happens to be on the chopping block; soupfly appeared to be the lynch choice du jour at this point in time. His offer to 'read the game in a week' with deadline going to hit in less than a week does (contrary to the sincerity mentioned above) does not strike me as being fully sincere; he had
just
been told deadline was in a week, so this comment is flatly bad.

The inconsistency between words and actions ('don't lynch MeMe yet' while still voting for her) has always stricken me as disingenuous, both in this game and in past games.

Finally, he is largely using WIFOM as his defenses today ('would MeMe have voted for me?' and 'would a scum have lynched his scum-mate?'), which is appealing to other players' actions to try to clear himself, as opposed to using his
own
actions to clear himself.
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Post Post #637 (ISO) » Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:14 pm

Post by Javert »

That might look confusing, so I will clarify it off the bat:

There are more things Arakorn has said which seem 'townish' over gorckat; however, there are
also
more things Arakorn has
done
which make him seem more 'scummish' than gorckat. Given those two choices, I would rather lynch the player who I believe to me more scummy.
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Post Post #638 (ISO) » Thu Mar 13, 2008 11:48 am

Post by neko2086 »

Arakorn, are you still around? Javert had more questions for you, and your answers to them may affect what happens today.
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Post Post #639 (ISO) » Fri Mar 14, 2008 12:27 am

Post by Arakorn »

Yeh I'm here, but I'm seriously beginning to lose interest. :( I just don't want to put as much time into these games as you guys, and I am not nearly as skilled as you. :(

Javert wrote: Let me ask my same question in a different way. If you thought that day was the deadline day, why were you not spurred to read the game to
find out
who you were most suspicious of so that you could give a warranted vote?
Since it was a deadline, a player would have gotten killed with or without my vote. I'd rather trust in your votes, (the more experienced player's) than in my own "feelings".

Javert wrote: If Tarhalindur never claimed his role at all or that he had an investigation (but instead just went after MeMe), would you have voted MeMe alongside with him? Or would have done something else?
(You mean if I wouldn't have known he had a special role?)
Probably not, as I would have had significantly less evidence against MeMe.
Javert wrote: Response: In my experience, if a townsperson wants more discussion, they should take away the avenues for
stopping
discussion (which means they should unvote somebody, especially if they are anywhere close to being lynched).

Here is an example of what I am getting at from another game (which is pretty famous and everybody on the site should read it, in my humble opinions): Post #157 from Axelrod-scum in Worst Role Evar Mafia. He claims he does
not
want a player lynched while putting them at Lynch-1, and then that player is lynched anyways immediately afterwards (by a townsperson, no less). If Axelrod had
really
not wanted that player lynched yet, he would not have
voted
for him – as you may notice, he actually
did
want that player lynched. His actions and his words were contradicting each other.

As it is, scum had a vested interest in making Day Two in
this
game go as fast as possible; the sooner MeMe was lynched, the less information the town could actually get from the lynch; this is an excellent reason for scum to (for example) claim they do not want the day to end yet while keeping their vote on MeMe (in hopes she actually is lynched all the sooner). This is why I am poking you about this subject.
I see now. Well, I guess I did wrong then... (ehm, was there a question somewhere...?)

Javert wrote:
Please
go into detail. The
point
of me asking you questions is because
I do not know your alignment, and I am trying to figure that out
. The longer your response, the more likely I am to judge correctly. Point to posts you don't like (or do like), make a case, tell me where you get particular vibes: do whatever you need to do so that I can see you have
some
reasoning behind why you are placing players where they are on your suspicions list.
Well, I have throughout some of Gorckat's posts "sensed" some offensiveness against me, as well as something that I consider scummy. No examples currently...

My "problem" with neko is how easily he got away. (Known townies: Neko).
I later then asked why he was so certainly a townie, and Soup replied that he had investigated him. (the Forged Money-printer, which really had an unclear function).
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Post Post #640 (ISO) » Fri Mar 14, 2008 3:42 am

Post by neko2086 »

Javert wrote: without seeing Arakorn's answers to my questions, I am more inclined to lynch Arakorn today over gorckat
Has anything changed?
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Post Post #641 (ISO) » Fri Mar 14, 2008 10:15 am

Post by Arakorn »

I would guess not, given I still haven't provided any valid reasons for my suspicions. :(
Well go ahead, sacrifice me, I aint of much use anyway. And I can get out of this troubling game...
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Post Post #642 (ISO) » Fri Mar 14, 2008 11:26 am

Post by gorckat »

unvote
vote: Javert


At this poit, there's no way I'm lynching neo tomorrow, and I don't want to be stuck as Javert's out.

I recognize that moving my vote raises the chance I become Arakorn's out. I'm willing to gamble that.
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Post Post #643 (ISO) » Sat Mar 15, 2008 1:43 am

Post by Arakorn »

I think this is the current tally...

Javert (1) gorckat
Arakorn (1) soupfly
gorckat (1) arakorn
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Post Post #644 (ISO) » Sun Mar 16, 2008 5:37 am

Post by neko2086 »

This has been tormenting me all weekend.

Originally, I had imagined that gorckat was probably the most likely to be town. This largely hinged on his early involvement in the DR/Sikario lynch. In my post 542, I said gorckat was second on the wagon. Looking back, I see that he was actually third. That in itself doesn't change a whole lot, but looking at the numbers of votes, there's a critical shift.
before DR wagon wrote:
soupfly (3) - Archaist, SirWario, gorckat

Gorckat (2) – Tarhalindur, Arakorn
Guardian (1) - Pra a Funkee Home Sapien
neko2086 (1) - soupfly
Sikario8 (1) - neko2086

SirWario (1) - Guardian
Arakorn (1) - MeMe
Gorckat switches to Arakorn wrote:
soupfly (2) - Archaist, SirWario

Gorckat (2) – Tarhalindur, Arakorn
Arakorn (2) - MeMe, gorckat

Guardian (1) - Pra a Funkee Home Sapien
neko2086 (1) - soupfly
Sikario8 (1) - neko2086

SirWario (1) - Guardian
Guardian votes DR wrote:
soupfly (2) - Archaist, SirWario

Gorckat (2) – Tarhalindur, Arakorn
Arakorn (2) - MeMe, gorckat

Sikario8 (2) - neko2086, Guardian

Guardian (1) - Pra a Funkee Home Sapien
neko2086 (1) - soupfly
This is a critical moment. Gorckat has asked why he wouldn't have just stayed on soupfly if he were scum and get him lynched. Well, he had already switched to Arakorn, possibly in hopes that a bandwagon would start there.
gorckat's next move wrote:
Rikimaru (3) - neko2086, Guardian, gorckat

soupfly (2) - Archaist, SirWario

Gorckat (2) – Tarhalindur, Arakorn
Arakorn (1) - MeMe

Guardian (1) - Pra a Funkee Home Sapien
neko2086 (1) - soupfly
So why switch to DR instead of staying at Arakorn? Originally, when I thought gorckat was the second to join, this made even less sense. Why would he even try to make DR a possible lynch candidate if he was only at 1 vote? Well, he was actually already a lynch candidate. Would the scum bus their godfather so early on, when it maybe wasn't even necessary? I think it so. Nevermind that he was the godfather, was he really that valuable? Sikario made some very strange gameplay, and out of the three would easily have been the weakest on the scumteam. DR replaced, and might have been able to save the role, except he suggested that everyone play the "list game" without offering one of his own. The sacrifice would have been very easy to make, and would essentially allow gorckat to sail for quite awhile.


Now, with Arakorn, there have been some obvious issues, and Javert has pointed out most of them. I think, though, that they are possibly not so much indicative of scummy play, rather less-experienced play. Also, in post 641, he appears to be giving up, and asks to be "sacrificed." Now, this is interesting. We sorta can afford to sacrifice somebody, as we get one more lynch, so for the town, though they should never give up, they should also be understanding that they are dispensible so long as it is not a lylo situation. The last scum, on the other hand, doesn't have this luxury. Now, it is possible that Arakorn is trying to appeal to emotion, but as Javert pointed out, he denied being a newbie player early on. He has, recently, said that he is not as "skilled" as the others, so that might be an attempt to start playing that card, but I really don't think it is.

Arakorn has been the "inevitable lynch" for some time now. His gameplay has changed, but not in the way I expected, especially if he were scum trying to save the game for his team. He started out today pretty aggressive, and mellowed out after being attacked. If he were scum, I would imagine he would be fighting tooth and nail to win.

Gorckat today has been much more aggressive toward Arakorn, but insists on voting for Javert, even though he has little evidence to back it up. He calls it gut. I think I'm convinced it's the scum's desperate attempt to win. After all, if things went the way they were going, he would likely be lynched in the endgame anyway. Keeping his vote on Arakorn would mean he'd have to defend himself against Javert, which would be difficult, so he's got to try something else. If he could possibly get Javert lynched first, it would be much easier to win in the endgame. Or, if Arakorn was lynched anyway, he at least wouldn't have been a part of the lynch anymore.

If Gorckat were town and really had more reason to believe Arakorn was scum, he'd still be voting Arakorn. He has been voting capriciously throughout the game, indicative of playing by strategy and not scum-hunting.

vote: gorckat
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Post Post #645 (ISO) » Sun Mar 16, 2008 6:17 am

Post by gorckat »

If Gorckat were town and really had more reason to believe Arakorn was scum, he'd still be voting Arakorn.
And if he's town and really can't decide which one is scum?
indicative of playing by strategy and not scum-hunting.
That makes no sense. Town shouldn't have a strategy? My strategy is this: I'm town and there's no fucking way I can get past Javert in LYLO, nor would Arakorn if he's town. Sure, that works the same if I'm scum, but I think I can prove tomorrow that I'm not.

Arakorn's willingness to go down is an appeal to emotion, just like Javert's never been lynched as town.
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Post Post #646 (ISO) » Sun Mar 16, 2008 10:15 am

Post by neko2086 »

And if he's town and really can't decide which one is scum?
Are you talking about yourself here? I believe you said that you actually had reasons to vote for Arakorn, but wanted to vote Javert because of your "gut" and also because that would be the strategic thing to do, right? That sounds like you're saying that Arakorn is probably scum but you'd rather get Javert out of the way first because he would be dangerous to have in the endgame. If that's not what you're saying, please correct me.
Town shouldn't have a strategy?
It's fine for the town to have a strategy, but scum-hunting should be priority. The scum only have to appear to be scum-hunting, but they are playing strictly by strategy. Your voting behavior in this entire game looks nothing like scum-hunting.
Sure, that works the same if I'm scum, but I think I can prove tomorrow that I'm not.
Are you expecting there to be a tomorrow? Again, it sounds like you
expect
Javert to turn up town.
Arakorn's willingness to go down is an appeal to emotion, just like Javert's never been lynched as town.
I tried to make a distinction here, but let me try again. I don't quite think Arakorn is deliberately trying to make an appeal to emotion. I really think he is genuinely accepting the fact that he is dispensible. If I am wrong about you, then obviously this will need to be reconsidered, but I find Arakorn's reactions and play today to be less indicative of scumminess than yours.
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Post Post #647 (ISO) » Sun Mar 16, 2008 10:35 am

Post by gorckat »

I
hope
there isn't a tomorrow. I accept the possibility that there will be a tomorrow.
That sounds like you're saying that Arakorn is probably scum but you'd rather get Javert out of the way first because he would be dangerous to have in the endgame.
Yup.

Again- I'm torn 50/50 between Arakorn's scummy behavior and my gut towards Javert. I really don't think I can make any better of a case (or any case, really) against Javert if it's him, me and you. Thus, for town to win, we have to eliminate him first so we can lynch Arakorn if Javert isn't scum.

One reason Javert is so damn hard to read is he never really had to interact with DR or Meme. iirc, all he got say about Meme was "let's talk this through". He's actually in the best seat possible if he's scum- nothing can tie him to any other scum and he just has to hunt phantoms and point out my flaws.

Same for Arakorn, really. He never really hooked into Meme or DR, either. I've probably got the most interactions with both (counting sikario and DR together) out of anyone left.
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Post Post #648 (ISO) » Sun Mar 16, 2008 10:35 am

Post by gorckat »

And yes- I was speaking about myself in the third person in your first quote.
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Post Post #649 (ISO) » Sun Mar 16, 2008 11:08 am

Post by neko2086 »

One reason Javert is so damn hard to read is he never really had to interact with DR or Meme.
True, but Archaist did. Though Javert can't answer for archaist's actions, I think if there were evidence of Archaist being scum, it ought to be brought up. I haven't found anything very indicative either way.
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Post Post #650 (ISO) » Sun Mar 16, 2008 12:53 pm

Post by gorckat »

neko wrote:This is a critical moment. Gorckat has asked why he wouldn't have just stayed on soupfly if he were scum and get him lynched. Well, he had already switched to Arakorn, possibly in hopes that a bandwagon would start there.
Would the scum bus their godfather so early on, when it maybe wasn't even necessary? I think it so. Nevermind that he was the godfather, was he really that valuable? Sikario made some very strange gameplay, and out of the three would easily have been the weakest on the scumteam.
I bussed my GF day in Veggie mafia, and bussed a scum day 1 of Communist Mafia. Both were very different circumstances, notably- full majority lynches.

In this case, if I were scum, it would have been way smarter to let DR fall Day 2. Attention would have focused on him and we'd be one body ahead, with maybe a cop look at him possibly clearing him.

No way I'd bus a GF w/o majority support Day 1. It just doesn't make sense.

Votecount;

Javert (1) gorckat
Arakorn (1) soupfly
gorckat (2) arakorn, neko


Not voting; The rest of you
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Post Post #651 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 10:38 am

Post by Jenter Brolincani »

I've been muchly told off for being a badmod.

I've finished my work pile tonight, tomorrow I'll do the math, count the votes and probably impose a 1 week/10 day deadline.
Show
Who dares, dies.

No access on thursdays.

...this would be much simpler for me if one of you could stop making sense and act like scum. - Elmo

...So the only scum is a player with no vote, no NK and doesn't exist? - Rogue Shenanigans
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Post Post #652 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2008 8:39 am

Post by Jenter Brolincani »

DEADLINE SET for the 29th march.
Show
Who dares, dies.

No access on thursdays.

...this would be much simpler for me if one of you could stop making sense and act like scum. - Elmo

...So the only scum is a player with no vote, no NK and doesn't exist? - Rogue Shenanigans
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Post Post #653 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2008 3:01 pm

Post by Javert »

Flew back into town yesterday, and I will not have the time to read this game until Saturday (possibly Friday).
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Post Post #654 (ISO) » Thu Mar 20, 2008 4:08 am

Post by Arakorn »

I will be away 'til Monday, but might be able to check in on Saturday. (Unlikely though)
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Post Post #655 (ISO) » Thu Mar 20, 2008 4:29 am

Post by neko2086 »

Soupfly, are you available for comments?
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Post Post #656 (ISO) » Thu Mar 20, 2008 7:40 am

Post by gorckat »

Present. FWIW.
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Post Post #657 (ISO) » Fri Mar 21, 2008 7:47 pm

Post by Javert »

Argh: I will admit I am getting tired of reading this game. It feels as if I've almost memorized the whole thing, given that I've read the posts so many times (excepting for some of the latest posts).

I think I will (finally) place what will hopefully be my only vote this game.

Vote: Arakorn
.

I know when I first entered the game, gorckat struck me as one of the two people who looked townish. I admittedly had displaced suspicions early on, but circumstance proved me wrong on two of them (Tarhalindur and soupfly) and during Day Three I was starting to think MBF may have been a townie based on a couple past games I have played with him (in that I have been scum with him on two separate occasions, and he did not appear to be playing the same way in this game – but that is pretty much irrelevant at this point). I generally regret
not
going with my first intuitions, so I am going to go with them here.

I will also note that it is very difficult for me not to just toss my vote on gorckat here in order to lynch him, such that if the game were to continue,
I
would then be the one with the "easy lynch target" tomorrow in Arakorn. Hopefully this doesn't come back to bite me in the ass, but I would rather try to lynch the person I think is more likely to be scum rather than try to secure me the "easier" lynch for a hypothetical tomorrow.

Most of my suspicion on gorckat seems to stem largely from things I find personally problematic with what appears to be his playstyle: in particular, (a) the fact that he votes without explanation only to provide reasoning afterwards, (b) his placement on bandwagons, and (c) his claimed play that he would rather lynch the more 'difficult' players first so that the 'easier' players are left afterwards [established both with the "MBF > Arakorn vigging"-plan, as well as the "Javert > Arakorn lynching"-plan]. Of course, there
are
some things he has done which I have not felt comfortable with which cannot really be swept under the carpet of "playstyle", but:

Most of my suspicion on Arakorn seems to be coming from his
actions
and not really what I consider to be his 'playstyle'. I will not bother summarizing this again; I already did so earlier.

If I have counted correctly, this puts Arakorn at Lynch-1. Feel free to ask me any questions.
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Post Post #658 (ISO) » Sat Mar 22, 2008 12:55 am

Post by gorckat »

Javert wrote:Most of my suspicion on gorckat seems to stem largely from things I find personally problematic with what appears to be his playstyle: in particular, (a) the fact that he votes without explanation only to provide reasoning afterwards, (b) his placement on bandwagons, and (c) his claimed play that he would rather lynch the more 'difficult' players first so that the 'easier' players are left afterwards [established both with the "MBF > Arakorn vigging"-plan, as well as the "Javert > Arakorn lynching"-plan]. Of course, there are some things he has done which I have not felt comfortable with which cannot really be swept under the carpet of "playstyle", but:
a) Far better players than I do the same. Glork recently did it to me in an another ongoing game, despite 30 pages of info. I also see mbf doing it this game (as town!).
b) "Third on the wagon is scum!" sorts of things? Commonly considered bunk. Citations and proof such placement equates with scum required.
c) See ABR's mini 486 where I argued the same (this was just the last time before my lynch- see my posts for several other times I borught it up) against Elias, yet was town.
c2) I never said I wanted mbf vigged over Arakorn. I think I read a question wrong earlier. You
asked
why I never wanted Arakorn vigged over mbf, but the
plan
tar presented put Gorgon and mbf up on the block. iirc, from skimming my posts right now, Arakorn was probably in a pool of people to be dealt with as a course of the plan.

For playstyle in general, yes- I think we are oil/water.
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Post Post #659 (ISO) » Sat Mar 22, 2008 4:44 am

Post by neko2086 »

a) Far better players than I do the same.
Yes, but do they do it throughout the entire game? Whenever I've seen this, it's been early on to provoke discussion, or it's been done to gauge reactions. I don't see either from you, really.
b) "Third on the wagon is scum!" sorts of things?
That is a pretty flawed argument, though I'm not sure if that's what Javert was talking about. Javert, could you elaborate on that point?
c) See ABR's mini 486 where I argued the same
That seems just a little different. The motivation in that post seems to be to avoid WIFOM arguments the next day. But, I probably still wouldn't like that argument, so you may have a point here.


Javert, how do you feel about Arakorn's latest posts?
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Post Post #660 (ISO) » Sat Mar 22, 2008 6:06 am

Post by gorckat »

Regarding the voting without reason- I clearly recall the ones early on in this game- the ones that were provocative and trying to get reactions. I don't recall doing so after Day 1 was in the books.

On the bandwagon placement- I'm trying to point out that those 3rd on the wagon types arguments
are
flawed, and that's what it seemed Javert was saying. If he broke down my postition on wagons and lynches earlier, please direct me to it and I'll address it directly (possibly pointing to any rebuttal I already have made, if I did so).

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