This has been tormenting me all weekend.
Originally, I had imagined that gorckat was probably the most likely to be town. This largely hinged on his early involvement in the DR/Sikario lynch. In my post 542, I said gorckat was second on the wagon. Looking back, I see that he was actually third. That in itself doesn't change a whole lot, but looking at the numbers of votes, there's a critical shift.
before DR wagon wrote:
soupfly (3) - Archaist, SirWario, gorckat
Gorckat (2) – Tarhalindur, Arakorn
Guardian (1) - Pra a Funkee Home Sapien
neko2086 (1) - soupfly
Sikario8 (1) - neko2086
SirWario (1) - Guardian
Arakorn (1) - MeMe
Gorckat switches to Arakorn wrote:
soupfly (2) - Archaist, SirWario
Gorckat (2) – Tarhalindur, Arakorn
Arakorn (2) - MeMe, gorckat
Guardian (1) - Pra a Funkee Home Sapien
neko2086 (1) - soupfly
Sikario8 (1) - neko2086
SirWario (1) - Guardian
Guardian votes DR wrote:
soupfly (2) - Archaist, SirWario
Gorckat (2) – Tarhalindur, Arakorn
Arakorn (2) - MeMe, gorckat
Sikario8 (2) - neko2086, Guardian
Guardian (1) - Pra a Funkee Home Sapien
neko2086 (1) - soupfly
This is a critical moment. Gorckat has asked why he wouldn't have just stayed on soupfly if he were scum and get him lynched. Well, he had already switched to Arakorn, possibly in hopes that a bandwagon would start there.
gorckat's next move wrote:
Rikimaru (3) - neko2086, Guardian, gorckat
soupfly (2) - Archaist, SirWario
Gorckat (2) – Tarhalindur, Arakorn
Arakorn (1) - MeMe
Guardian (1) - Pra a Funkee Home Sapien
neko2086 (1) - soupfly
So why switch to DR instead of staying at Arakorn? Originally, when I thought gorckat was the second to join, this made even less sense. Why would he even try to make DR a possible lynch candidate if he was only at 1 vote? Well, he was actually already a lynch candidate. Would the scum bus their godfather so early on, when it maybe wasn't even necessary? I think it so. Nevermind that he was the godfather, was he really that valuable? Sikario made some very strange gameplay, and out of the three would easily have been the weakest on the scumteam. DR replaced, and might have been able to save the role, except he suggested that everyone play the "list game" without offering one of his own. The sacrifice would have been very easy to make, and would essentially allow gorckat to sail for quite awhile.
Now, with Arakorn, there have been some obvious issues, and Javert has pointed out most of them. I think, though, that they are possibly not so much indicative of scummy play, rather less-experienced play. Also, in post 641, he appears to be giving up, and asks to be "sacrificed." Now, this is interesting. We sorta can afford to sacrifice somebody, as we get one more lynch, so for the town, though they should never give up, they should also be understanding that they are dispensible so long as it is not a lylo situation. The last scum, on the other hand, doesn't have this luxury. Now, it is possible that Arakorn is trying to appeal to emotion, but as Javert pointed out, he denied being a newbie player early on. He has, recently, said that he is not as "skilled" as the others, so that might be an attempt to start playing that card, but I really don't think it is.
Arakorn has been the "inevitable lynch" for some time now. His gameplay has changed, but not in the way I expected, especially if he were scum trying to save the game for his team. He started out today pretty aggressive, and mellowed out after being attacked. If he were scum, I would imagine he would be fighting tooth and nail to win.
Gorckat today has been much more aggressive toward Arakorn, but insists on voting for Javert, even though he has little evidence to back it up. He calls it gut. I think I'm convinced it's the scum's desperate attempt to win. After all, if things went the way they were going, he would likely be lynched in the endgame anyway. Keeping his vote on Arakorn would mean he'd have to defend himself against Javert, which would be difficult, so he's got to try something else. If he could possibly get Javert lynched first, it would be much easier to win in the endgame. Or, if Arakorn was lynched anyway, he at least wouldn't have been a part of the lynch anymore.
If Gorckat were town and really had more reason to believe Arakorn was scum, he'd still be voting Arakorn. He has been voting capriciously throughout the game, indicative of playing by strategy and not scum-hunting.
vote: gorckat